In the world of fantasy football, we’re neck deep in no man’s land. The playoffs are over, the draft is still something fuzzy off in the distance, and there’s a rain cloud over our heads in the form of the ongoing NFL labor negotiations. But this is a great time to examine some of the traditional and non-traditional fantasy football strategies and tweak them for use in the future.

One such strategy is Quarterback By Committee (QBBC). For the neophyte, this strategy encourages the fantasy owner to wait to draft a QB on draft day until such time that he can grab two or three solid players in the mid to late rounds. In standard 12-team leagues, this usually means somewhere in the 8th to 14th rounds. If you can find two or three players whose schedules compliment each other, you can sometimes get QB5-type production at a deep discount.

Every preseason, I write a QBBC article that recommends a few combinations to fantasy owners. For the 2010 season, my top recommendation was Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Eli finished #7 in total fantasy points, while Roethlisberger finished #7 in average fantasy points even though he was suspended for the first four games. During the preseason, Eli was going in the 8th round, while Big Ben was going in the 11th, so owners who went with this duo got great production at QB on the cheap. This approach allows for owners to load up on talent at RB, WR and even TE knowing that they’ll be at least “okay” at QB.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the historical fantasy data for the QB position for the last 10 years and see if we can learn anything from it. Below you’ll find a graph that shows the total fantasy points by the Top 32 QBs as well as data for the Top 10 fantasy QBs and Next 10 (QBs #11-#20).

(Click on the graph to see a bigger version.)

What does this mean?

After a low point in 2005, the QB position has shown strong growth for the last five years. This is indicated by the blue bars — total fantasy points for the Top 32 QBs. Pundits always say that the NFL is a passing league, and these numbers support that.

Over the past four years, the total production of the Top 10 QBs have stayed about the same, with a low of 3170 points in 2008 and a high of 3399 in 2009. Over the same span, the Next 10 QBs have shown fairly consistent growth from 2246 in 2007 to 2646 in 2010. It’s clear that the Next 10 group is responsible for most of the overall growth at the position over the last half decade.

Keep in mind that when I say “Top 10,” I’m referring to the Top 10 QBs in total fantasy points at the end of the season, not the Top 10 QBs in terms of draft position. Every year, there were players that were drafted outside of the Top 10 that finish in the Top 10. Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan were all Top 10 QBs in 2010, yet were generally available in the 8th round or later. This only serves to support the QBBC strategy because you may very well end up with a Top 10 QB even though you take him at QB15 later. (Freeman wasn’t even in the Top 24 in ADP heading into 2010, but finished QB9.)

I have some anecdotal evidence that supports QBBC as well. In my auction league, I started Tony Romo until he went down in Week 7. At that point, I scrambled to put together a committee of QBs that I could use for the stretch run. I ended up using a combination of David Garrard, Brett Favre, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman down the stretch. That group averaged 24.3 points per game. Only Mike Vick (29.2) had a higher per-game average for the season, and Aaron Rodgers was second with 23.8 points per game. I went on to win the league with Freeman starting the final three games.

Part of this was good decision making on my part because I had to pick my starter every week based on his matchup, but the fact that I had a bullpen of three or four QBs to call upon ensured that I had at least one semi-favorable matchup to use. This is one of the biggest benefits of QBBC: Don’t like a certain matchup? Well, someone on your bench is bound to have a better one. And since you’re not beholden to the theory that you should be starting your stud, you can play your matchups without worrying that you’re not showing enough faith in your early draft picks.

Another benefit is injury insurance. When Tony Romo went down, I thought my season might be over. But I was able to pick up a few QBs off the waiver wire to create my in-season committee. I was lucky because Garrard, Freeman and Bradford were all available on the waiver wire at one point or another. Had I gone with QBBC from the start, I would have been able to simply plug another QB into my committee if one of my guys went down.

The depth at the position is tremendous right now as there are 20 or so QBs that I would feel comfortable starting heading into next season…given a good matchup, of course.

So heading into the 2011 season (assuming there is a 2011 season), remember to use those early picks to load up on RBs, WRs and TEs, and save two or three of those middle and late round picks for a couple of QBs. Check back in July and I’ll tell you which ones to target.

I feel your pain, Romo owners. I had him in two of my six leagues, and was ill-prepared for an injury to my star QB. In one league, I managed to pick up Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, and in the other, I was only able to get Jason Campbell and David Garrard.

It seems like a good time to recalculate our Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) to see what QB pairs have a combined schedule that will get us through the rest of the season. It’s fine to trade away depth at RB or WR in order to land a solid QB, but in many cases it’s unnecessary. A problem at QB is one of the easiest to mask since there is so much depth at the position. In most leagues, you can get capable QB play by picking up a couple of guys on the waiver wire and using them in tandem.

To that end, I looked at the 18 (at least somewhat decent) QBs most likely to be available on your waiver wire. In order of decreasing availability (in ESPN leagues), the list includes:

Donovan McNabb (94.2)
Jay Cutler (86.4)
Brett Favre (86.2)
Carson Palmer (83.4)
Mark Sanchez (68.6)
Vince Young (62.3)
Chad Henne (60.9)
Matt Cassel (42.1)
Sam Bradford (28.6)
Matthew Stafford (27.1)
David Garrard (26.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.8)
Josh Freeman (23.1)
Matt Hasselbeck (20.8)
Alex Smith/Troy Smith (12.7)
Jon Kitna (10.9)
Bruce Gradkowski/Jason Campbell (5.1)
Matt Moore (1.8)

I tweaked Footballguys’ rest-of-year (through Week 16) projections to reflect my own ranking for each player. I then applied FBG’s strength of schedule to calculate a projected points for all the remaining games, and then used a giant Excel spreadsheet to determine the best QB pairs for the remainder of the season.

The two best QBBCs are Stafford/Cutler and Stafford/McNabb, but since Cutler and McNabb aren’t readily available in most leagues, we have to dig a little deeper. The third-highest QBBC is Stafford/Fitzpatrick, which has an average percent-owned of 26.5%, so the duo might be available in your league. Stafford/Freeman and Fitzpatrick/Freeman come in at #5 and #6, respectively.

Below is a table of all 153 possible combinations. Duos that are listed in green have an average percent-owned of less than 20% (meaning there’s a decent chance that they’re available), while duos listed in red have an average percent-owned between 20% and 40%. I included expected points (in a high performance scoring system) for Weeks 8-16 and for Weeks 9-16 in case you find this article after the Week 8 games.

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

The quarterback position is important in fantasy football, just not as important as it is in real football. Unless you play in a league that requires two starting QBs, there is plenty of depth at the position which means you have plenty of options.

Strategy #1: Draft a stud.
This is the simplest way to approach the position. Sometime in the first three rounds, pick the best QB available. This year, it appears that there are seven QBs going in the first 36 picks: Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.09), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (3.01), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11) and Philip Rivers (3.12). These guys have a few things in common: 1) they’re good, 2) they’re entrenched in good situations, and 3) they have good receivers to throw to.

One strategy is to set aside one of your first three picks for one these players. The upside is that you probably won’t have to worry about your QB position. You’ll run this guy out there every week and won’t have to make any decisions about whom to start. The downside is that you won’t be using one of your early round picks on another position, like RB and WR, that does not have as much depth as the QB position.

Strategy #2: Wait for value to emerge.
This approach doesn’t preclude taking a QB in the first few rounds, but it doesn’t mandate it either. You might wait until the late 2nd/early 3rd and see if Rodgers/Brees/Manning are still on the board. Or wait until the 4th or the 5th and see if one of the other four players are available. If it’s the latter, then you managed to get a 3rd round QB a round or two later, which allowed you to get a stud QB and use a 3rd round pick on that RB or WR you had your eye on.

The ‘wait for value’ approach could also stretch into the middle rounds as you wait for a well-priced QB. If that value never emerges, don’t fret, because you’re still well positioned for…

Strategy #3: Quarterback By Committee
I wrote a far more detailed post about this last week, but suffice to say, with the depth at the QB position, 2-3 middle- to late-round QBs with schedules that combine well (i.e. favorable matchups line up so there’s usually a good one every week) will form a QBBC that will perform at Top 5 levels at a fraction of the price.

My top recommendation this year is to grab Eli Manning (or Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco) in the 8th, and then Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th. For a three-man combo utilizing only late rounders, grab Big Ben in the 10th, Alex Smith in the 11th and David Garrard in the 12th.

The benefit to this strategy is that you won’t lose much at the QB spot and will be able to load up with tons of talent and depth at RB, WR and even TE in the early rounds. You’ll also have 2-3 capable signal callers on the roster to turn to if one gets injured. What do you do if Drew Brees goes down?

The downside? You can go into the season with a plan, but player and defensive performance may make picking a starter each week more of a chore than you’d like it to be. This is not necessarily the right strategy for an owner who wants a low-maintenance team.

Since I’ve already written extensively about the QBBC, and you don’t have to put much thought into picking a stud early in the draft, here are a few QBs that look like especially good values, even at their current average draft positions.

Tony Romo (3.09)
Romo finished as QB7 last season and was about 10 points away from QB4. He has finished in the Top 10 in each of the last three seasons and a plethora of weapons, including newcomer Dez Bryant. The Cowboys always seem to be playing until the (sometimes bitter) end, so you don’t have to worry about Romo taking Week 16 off. If there is no RB or WR that you like late in the 3rd or Romo slips into the 4th, jump on him.

Eli Manning (8.06)
Manning was QB10 last season and has finished in the 10-14 range the last four seasons, so why is he QB13 heading into this season? With that kind of consistency, you’d think that he’d go a bit earlier since there is very little downside. He has a nice receiving corps featuring Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Boss and the Giants aren’t afraid to throw the ball.

Alex Smith (12.08)
Smith averaged 16.7 fantasy points in 11 starts last season, which is more than Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, who are both going a full four rounds earlier in mock drafts. He’ll benefit from the emergence of Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, along with a much easier schedule in 2010.

Vince Young (13.01)
Not unlike Smith, Young averaged 16.7 points in his last 10 starts. More importantly, the Titans went 8-2 over that span, so he proved that he could win. He’s not going to set the world on fire with his passing numbers, but he always seems to add 2-3 points in the running game and is a threat to run it in.

David Garrard (13.07)
Why is last year’s QB13 going in the 13th round? He averaged 17.6 points per game last season and has a quality WR in Mike Sims-Walker to throw to. However, the Jags have struggled in recent seasons and if they don’t get off to a good start against a tough early schedule, Garrard might become the fall guy. However, if he can survive the first four weeks, his schedule lightens up, which is why he’s a good match in a three-man QBBC with Big Ben.

Matt Moore (N/A)
Moore averaged 16.1 fp over his last five starts, throwing eight TD and averaging 207 passing yards over his final four games. His body of work is small and he may have Jimmy Clausen pushing him, but with a pretty favorable opening schedule, Moore should be okay.

Here are our official rankings, by tier:

1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Peyton Manning

4. Tony Romo
5. Tom Brady
6. Matt Schaub
7. Philip Rivers

8. Kevin Kolb
9. Brett Favre
10. Jay Cutler

11. Eli Manning
12. Donovan McNabb
13. Matt Ryan
14. Joe Flacco
15. Carson Palmer

16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. Alex Smith
18. Chad Henne
19. Vince Young
20. Matthew Stafford
21. David Garrard

22. Matt Cassel
23. Matt Moore
24. Matt Hasselbeck
25. Jason Campbell
26. Matt Leinart
27. Mark Sanchez

28. Josh Freeman
29. Trent Edwards
30. Kyle Orton
31. Sam Bradford
32. Jake Delhomme

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Every year, I kickoff TSR’s hardcore fantasy football coverage with my Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) post. I do this for a couple of reasons: 1) out of curiosity, as I usually draft a QBBC myself, and 2) there’s a lot of number crunching so it gets the fantasy football juices flowing.

For the neophytes, QBBC is a strategy often utilized by savvy fantasy footballers who want to take advantage of the relative depth at quarterback by forming a committee of overlooked mid-rounders. The premise is this: Two or three mediocre quarterbacks whose schedules mesh nicely — i.e. they have several favorable matchups when their schedules are combined — will give you the positional production of a top 5 QB.

This allows fantasy owners to load up on running backs, wide receivers and even a stud tight end in the early rounds, building depth at the positions where talent is at a premium. Sure, it’s great to have Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees anchoring your team, but that means you don’t get that second round RB or WR that you had your eye on. If you can get Top 5 QB production from a couple of guys that you grab in the 8th, 9th or 10th rounds, and your early-round RBs and WRs perform up to expectations, your team will definitely be playoff bound.

This works because of the depth at QB. We know that the signal callers going in round 8 — guys like Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco — are going to start and throw a lot of passes for their respective teams (barring injury, of course). Running backs or wide receivers that are going in the 8th round are another animal. RBs still available in the middle rounds are either sharing time or fighting for the starting job. WRs available that late are typically the second, third or even fourth options on their teams.

So that’s the theory — now for the research. To come up with a reasonable expectation for each two-man QBBC combination, I took the season projections from Footballguys (a great fantasy football site) and using their strength of schedule for each team, I was able to produce a week-by-week projection for each quarterback. From there, it was relatively easy to come up with a list of the duos that project to have the best combined seasons.

I only focused on those QBs going in the 8th round or later, so this exercise excludes the Top 11 signal callers (in terms of Average Draft Position): Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.10), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (2.11), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11), Phillip Rivers (4.01), Jay Cutler (6.04), Kevin Kolb (6.04), Donovan McNabb (6.09) and Brett Favre (6.11). (Note: this article assumes a 12-team draft, so all mention of specific rounds and ADP have that in mind.)

This allows fantasy owners to spend at least the first seven picks on RBs, WRs and TEs, putting together a balanced squad before turning to the QB position.

So what was the top QBBC combination? The answer might surprise you:

Matt Ryan / Ben Roethlisberger (320.2 fantasy points)
Eli Manning / Ben Roethlisberger (320.2 fantasy points)
Maybe it’s not so surprising. Roethlisberger finished QB9 last season and averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game. He missed Week 12, and had he played and scored his average, he would have finished QB4. He’s going to miss the first six weeks of the season due to his recent behavior in a college bar, and as a result he’s going in the 11th round.

A savvy owner (who is not worried about the bad karma associated with drafting a guy with a history of sexual assault) looks at this situation and sees that he can get a Top 5 QB for half a season for the price of a 10th or 11th rounder. If he can just get through the first seven weeks of the season (PIT has a bye in Week 5), he’d be sitting pretty with Big Ben and QB X for the stretch run.

In fact, Roethlisberger is part of the top seven QBBCs and eight of the top nine combos. Along with Ryan (8.02), E. Manning (8.07), Big Ben is a good match with Joe Flacco (8.12) and Carson Palmer (9.12). All four of those combinations would require two picks in rounds 8-10. Roethlisberger also meshes well with Alex Smith (12.09), Vince Young (12.08), Jason Campbell (13.02) and Matt Stafford (12.05), in that order. Those QBBCs are all projected to score in the 288-300 fp range (or QB 6-8 production), for the price of a 10th rounder (Roethlisberger) and a 12th rounder. Not bad.

To execute this strategy… One way would be to wait until the 8th round to draft your first QB and take Ryan/Manning/Flacco. Personally, I’d go with Manning first, then Ryan and then Flacco. Here’s why: Manning was QB10 last season and averaged 20.3 points over the last eight games. This was the 8th highest average during that span. His strength of schedule is actually a bit better than last year and he should benefit from improvement by Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Boss. While I like both Ryan and Flacco, and they are entrenched as the starters for their respective teams, their schedules are a little tougher this season. Still, either guy would be a nice match with Big Ben.

If you don’t want to burn an 8th rounder on your first QB, or if you miss out on Manning/Ryan/Flacco, you could wait until the 10th round to grab Roethlisberger, and then look to add Smith, Young, Campbell or Stafford in the 12th or 13th round. These players are not in uber-stable situations, but they should start, at least for the first seven games.

Don’t want Roethlisberger? The top non-Ben QBBC is Eli Manning and Carson Palmer, which would probably require you to use your 8th and 9th round picks to get both players. A cheaper (and almost as effective) duo would be Flacco and Smith. Other cheaper duos: Manning/Henne, Ryan/Garrard, Ryan/Henne, Manning/Young, Ryan/Smith, Flacco/Young, Manning/Smith.

Top three-man combination without drafting a QB in rounds 1-9? How about Big Ben, Smith and David Garrard? Garrard’s nice schedule in W5-W7 offsets Smith’s somewhat difficult schedule during that stretch. The trio is projected to score 308.4 fantasy points. (That’s QB4-type production.) Take Roethlisberger in the 10th, Smith in the 11th and Garrard in the 12th. If you miss out on Garrard, Young is also a good fit with Roethlisberger and Smith.

Last season, he took over a 2-6 team in Week 10, and averaged 234 passing yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last eight games of the season. Subtracting interceptions (1.0 per game), this works out to about 19.1 fantasy points per game. Had Hill averaged these numbers over the course of an entire season, he would have finished as last year’s QB6, ahead of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Moreover, he led the 49ers to a 5-3 record down the stretch, so he has proven that he can win games.

Amongst all NFL QBs, Hill also projects to face the 8th-easiest schedule. Obviously, projections are just projections, but all else being equal, I’d rather have a guy with a schedule that looks favorable. The 49ers are also likely to be trailing for much of the season, which will make it difficult for the team to follow through with its planned 60/40 run/pass split.

Hill doesn’t have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but the situation is pretty much unchanged from last season, so that isn’t a huge concern. If Vernon Davis ever taps into his significant potential and/or Michael Crabtree signs and learns the offense, it could be make Hill’s job a lot easier.

Hill is an undrafted 29-year-old journeyman, so he isn’t going to set the world on fire. I wouldn’t expect Top 10 numbers, though his performance last season would indicate that he’s capable of posting that kind of production. He’s one of those QBs who plays for a pretty bad team that should be trailing much of the time. If he can stay healthy, this could result in fantasy gold.

Grab him as a fantasy backup, especially if you have a QB that has a bye during one of Hill’s favorable matchups (McNabb, Warner, Ryan, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers and Cutler). He’s also a great guy to look for as part of a QBBC, specifically when used with Matt Cassel, David Garrard and Eli Manning. Throughout the preseason, he has been readily available in the 12th round of most fantasy drafts, and has actually gone undrafted in many leagues.

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, there are three schools of thought when drafting a quarterback. The first is to draft a stud in the first round or two and hope that he’s destined for a great year like the one Tom Brady had in 2007. The risk here is if this early pick doesn’t vastly outplay most of his peers, or if the owner isn’t able to unearth a good RB or WR in the middle rounds, the team is going to have trouble competing on a weekly basis.

The next theory is to go with running backs and/or wide receivers with the first two or three picks and then start looking for QB value in the next few rounds. This strategy could lead to an owner getting a player ranked in the top 5 in the third or fourth round, or a guy ranked 6-10 in the fifth or sixth round, or even later.

The final approach is to intentionally ignore the quarterback position in all of the early rounds, instead building up depth at running back and wide receiver (and maybe even tight end). Then in the eighth or ninth round, start to look at drafting a QB or three in the next few rounds with the hope of putting together a cohesive Quarterback By Committee (QBBC). (I recently posted a more detailed article that focuses solely on the QBBC.)

All of these strategies can work, but they each represent a different level of risk. For owners that always draft a QB early, they need that player to stay healthy and perform at a level commensurate with their draft position. The same goes for the owner who waits for value to emerge in rounds 3-6, though his QB has better odds of matching or outplaying his draft position. The owner that holds off until the middle rounds and then picks two or three guys that he expects to start throughout the season ultimately has quite a bit more room for error. If one player has a down year, the other (or other two) could very well pick up the slack.

Which strategy you choose may ultimately depend on your draft position. If there are five or six running backs you really like in the first round, but you have pick #12, you may elect to go with Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning instead of taking a RB leftover. Or if you have pick #4 and don’t deem any of those three worthy of your first rounder, but they’re all gone by 2.09, you’ll probably end up taking another RB or going with a WR.

The key is to look for value. That might mean waiting until Aaron Rodgers slips to you in the early 5th, or going with David Garrard and Jason Campbell in the late rounds as part of a QBBC, or even pulling the trigger on Peyton Manning in the early third, especially if there isn’t a RB or WR there that you like.

Below is a list of several guys that seem to represent good value at their current average draft positions (ADP). We’ll also provide rankings for the entire QB position, broken into tiers. Keep in mind that your scoring system will have a great impact on the value of the QB position.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed 7/15 to 8/5), and it assumes a 12-team league with a high performance scoring system, which includes 4 points per pass TD and one point per 20 yards passing. Quarterbacks will be more important in leagues with 6 points per pass TD or in leagues that don’t give a point per reception. Starting requirements are 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (4.08)
Statistically speaking, Rodgers was stellar in his first year under center for the Packers. He finished the season as QB2 and was remarkably consistent; he only had one game with fewer than 14.0 fantasy points. Nothing much has changed in the Packers offense – Greg Jennings re-signed – and while the defense should be a bit better, Green Bay’s games should be about as competitive as they were in 2008. The schedule looks a bit easier, so all signs point to another top 5 year for Rodgers. He’s a nice value at his current ADP or later.

Tony Romo, Cowboys (5.08)
From a fantasy perspective, the only thing Romo did wrong in 2008 was miss a few games in the middle of the season with an injury. When he played, he was one of the top QBs in the game, as evidenced by his 21.5 fppg average, which was third best in the league. Terrell Owens is gone, but Roy Williams has had an offseason to adjust to the Cowboys’ offense, and with top TE Jason Witten roaming the middle, Romo has no shortage of options. In order to avoid a late season swoon, the Cowboys have had him on a stricter workout regimen this summer. To top it all off, his schedule is a bit easier and he has a very nice matchup in Week 16. If he’s there in the 5th, he’s a nice pick.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (7.07)
According to Footballguys (who know what they’re doing), Roethlisberger’s strength of schedule is almost 26% easier than last season. He finished as QB16 in ’08 and QB5 in ’07, so with a nice schedule, Big Ben’s upside is big. He has two great receivers in Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, and a dependable TE in Heath Miller. The offensive line is still a concern, but the unit came together pretty well last season and they added Kraig Urbik in the second round. With a tough or mediocre schedule, Roethlisberger is probably more of a fringe starter, but with arguably the easiest schedule in the league, Big Ben looks like a very solid pick in the 6th or 7th round.

David Garrard, Jaguars (10.02)
His schedule is a bit tougher than last year, but for the money, Garrard has been one of the most steady and dependable QBs over the past two seasons. In 2008, he was QB9 with a 17.4 fppg average despite all sorts of injuries on the offensive line, which is healthy now and should be better with new additions Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton In 2007, he finished as QB16 (because he missed a few games), but had the 11th-best per game average. With Torry Holt on board, Garrard’s prospects are brighter, yet he’s still flying under the radar with an ADP in the 9th or 10th round. He’d make a stellar backup or a quality member of a two-man or three-man QBBC.

Joe Flacco, Ravens (11.02)
While Baltimore’s receiving corps is worrisome (especially if Derrick Mason stays retired), Flacco’s performance should benefit from two things: 1) having a year of experience under his belt and 2) having a much easier schedule. As a rookie, Flacco finished the season as QB19, so with some experience and several easy matchups, he’s a good bet to outplay his current draft position.

Shaun Hill / Alex Smith, 49ers (14.01 / ???)
If Hill does fend of Alex Smith’s bid for the starting job in San Francisco, he projects to be a great fantasy value. In 2008, he had an 18.3 fppg average in nine games, which was the 11th-best in the league. The 49ers should continue to play from behind, and along with the addition of Michael Crabtree and another easy schedule, Hill is a nice value in the late rounds. If Smith does indeed beat Hill out as QB1 for the 49ers, he’s worth a look too, though he hasn’t yet proven that he can perform in game situations.

Here are our official quarterback rankings:

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning

4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Tony Romo

6. Philip Rivers
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Kurt Warner
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Jay Cutler
11. Carson Palmer

12. David Garrard
13. Matt Cassel
14. Matt Ryan
15. Matt Schaub
16. Eli Manning

17. Joe Flacco
18. Matt Hasselbeck
19. Trent Edwards
20. Jason Campbell
21. Kyle Orton
22. Shaun Hill / Alex Smith

23. Chad Pennington
24. Jake Delhomme
25. Marc Bulger
26. Matthew Stafford
27. JaMarcus Russell
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Mark Sanchez

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

With the relative depth at the position, one approach to drafting a fantasy quarterback is to spend the first six or seven rounds drafting running backs, wide receivers and even a tight end. Then, in the eighth round or later, start to think about drafting a QB. Oftentimes, the players available in the 4th or 5th round won’t drastically outscore those QBs taken in the 8th or later.

Why is this? Well, one reason is that, once fantasy owners have a starting QB, they tend to draft for depth at running back and wide receiver instead of drafting a backup QB, whom they know probably won’t sniff their starting lineup, except as a bye week fill in.

Another reason is that most leagues require two starting running backs, which means 24 starting RBs in total (assuming a 12-team league). With more and more real NFL teams utilizing a RBBC, the position is much thinner than QB, which requires 12 fantasy starters of 32 real world starters.

Typically, this results in good depth at the QB position, where the expected production from QB10 isn’t all that different than QB20. This year the QB10 off the board is Matt Ryan (7.01) while the QB20 is Joe Flacco (11.02). To illustrate my point, in a “high performance” scoring system (4 pts per pass TD, 1 pt per 20 yards passing), Footballguys projects Ryan to score 255 fantasy points and Flacco to score 235. Are those 20 fantasy points worth burning a 7th round pick instead of an 11th? Over a 17-game schedule, that works out to less than 1.2 fantasy points per week.

In other words, it’s probably not going to cost you too many wins to go with Flacco instead of Ryan. In fact, you’ll probably be better off because the WR or RB you draft in the 7th round (Santana Moss?) is likely to vastly outperform his 11th-round counterpart (Michael Jenkins?). Footballguys projects Moss to outscore Jenkins by 75 points, a 4.4-point per week advantage. So by going with a Moss/Flacco combo instead of a Ryan/Jenkins combo, you’re gaining a net of 3.2 points per week.

Going one step further: why not draft two middle- to late-round quarterbacks whose schedules mesh well together to create a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)? That way, you can load up on RB, WR and TE talent in the first seven or eight rounds knowing that you’ll still be able to get good QB play from a couple of later picks by taking advantage of the ebbs and flows of each player’s schedule.

To that end, I took the QB strength of schedule data from Footballguys and calculated the per week projections (by using the aforementioned Footballguys projected stats) for every starting quarterback in the league.

Once that was done, I eliminated the 13 QBs with an average draft position (ADP) in the first seven rounds. This means that Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger are not a part of this study.

This left 19 potential QBs – actually a few more when you consider those teams that haven’t settled on a starter yet. More on this later.

I then determined the best combined schedule (based on projected points scored) for each of the 171 two-QB combinations for a 16-game season (since most leagues don’t play in Week 17).

So who came out on top?

#1 COMBO

Matt Cassel and Shaun Hill (or Alex Smith)…280.7 fp
This combination is a little tough because Cassel is currently being drafted QB14 (8.08), so you’re probably going to have to use an 8th or 9th round pick on him. This means that you may have to pass on some value at RB, WR or even TE that slips into the 8th. On the flip side, Hill is going 14.01, so there’s no rush in grabbing him after you have Cassel.

I like this combo, but Cassel worries me a little bit because he’s joining a new offense that lost Tony Gonzalez over the summer. Dwyane Bowe is a very good target, but the Chiefs are lacking other proven playmakers in the passing game. On the other hand, Hill was very productive (18.3 ppg) in nine starts for the 49ers, though Mike Singletary hasn’t been very impressed with him in camp. (The same goes for Alex Smith, by the way.)

Another issue with this pair is that I assumed that Hill would start all 16 games and would score the points projected for Smith (or vice versa). After all, only one QB can score at a time, right?

To utilize this combo, start each guy in the following weeks:

Cassel / (Hill/Smith): (1), (2), (3), 4, (5), 6, (7), (8), (9), (10), (11), (12) 13, (14) 15, 16

Now there’s word that Smith may win the job, making this combo dicey at best for fantasy owners drafting soon. I’d recommend waiting until the 49er QB situation is settled before trying to pull the trigger on this QBBC (unless you have plenty of roster space and can grab both Hill and Smith very late).

KEY QUARTERBACKS

As I peruse the top 20 or so combinations, a few names keep popping up.

David Garrard (10.02)
I love Garrard as a value pick this year and he should be deadly in a QBBC format. The Jacksonville offensive line is healthy again and the addition of Torry Holt should give Garrard a good option in the passing game. He was QB9 last year, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t post similar numbers in 2009 with a better line and an improved receiving corps.
Combines well with: Trent Edwards, Matt Cassel, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell

Trent Edwards (10.02)
Edwards missed two games last year and had a few other clunkers, but he showed some promise (nine of 14 starts with 14+ fantasy points) and the arrival of Terrell Owens opposite Lee Evans gives him two legitimate threats to throw to.
Combines well with: David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Hill/Smith, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning

Eli Manning (9.08)
Losing Plaxico Burress definitely hurts, but Manning has a great offensive line and a group of young receivers that have a good chance of developing into a solid unit. Domenik Hixon played well in Burress’s place last season and Steve Smith is a good possession receiver. Throw in rookie Hakeem Nicks and young tight end Kevin Boss, and the Giants’ passing game should be all right without Plax.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, David Garrard, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton

Jason Campbell (12.10)
Campbell should benefit from some stability in terms of what kind of offense he’s trying to run. Santana Moss is a very good receiver and Chris Cooley is a top five tight end. Campbell rarely puts up a total stinker – he scored at least 10 points in 15 of 16 starts in 2008, and that makes him a safe start.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Trent Edwards, David Garrard

Kyle Orton (9.07)
“Neck Beard” is now the Broncos’ QB and he has a much better receiving corps (featuring Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal) than he had in Chicago. He will also be protected by one of the best offensive lines in football — that won’t hurt. Still, he’s joining a new team and Marshall is disgruntled, so he’s not a sure bet. Plus, there are other guys I’d rather have in the 9th.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Cassel, Edwards

Matt Cassel (8.08)
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, David Garrard, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck

Hill/Smith (14.01)
Combines well with: Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Eli Manning, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck

Most of these combos are projected to net 270+ points, so assuming a 15-point fill in during the bye week of a “stud” QB, a QBBC is projected to outscore all but the top six or seven QBs at a fraction of the price.

RECOMMENDED COMBOS

At this point, these are the QBBCs that I would target:

Cassel/Garrard
Garrard/Campbell
Garrard/Edwards
Garrard/Manning
Cassel/Edwards
Cassel/Orton
Cassel/Flacco

Once the Hill/Smith situation clears up, the winner would make a nice combo with Garrard, Cassel, Manning and Orton. The nice thing about QBBC is that given the depth at the position, if you miss out on Cassel in the 8th, there’s a good chance that Garrard will be there in the 9th, and there are several QBs who schedules mesh well with his. If he’s gone, you could always grab Eli Manning (if available) and draft Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith later on. The options are numerous, so pick two or three combinations that you like and give it a try.