It was a Graduation Night of sorts as three teams closed out their respective series instead of letting things go to a Game 7.

Hawks 84, Magic 81
Joe Johnson (23 points) and Jamal Crawford (19) led the way for the Hawks, who shot just just 39% from the field (to the Magic’s 43%), but still managed to win due to three extra three-pointers and seven more offensive rebounds. Dwight Howard had 25 points, 15 rebounds, three blocks and six turnovers. He averaged 5.5 turnovers against the Hawks, which is way too many for any player, especially a big man.

Where do the Magic go from here? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Wasn’t it just two years ago that Orlando was an up-and-coming team giving the Lakers a good run in the NBA Finals? Pay attention, kids. This is what trading for Vince Carter (and then Gilbert Arenas) will do to you. Whatever mojo the Magic had is clearly gone and they could very well have their own Carmelo Anthony situation brewing with Dwight Howard scheduled to become a free agent after next season.

Lakers 98, Hornets 80
The Lakers enjoyed nice games from each of their top four players. Kobe (24 points), Pau Gasol (16 points, eight rebounds), Andrew Bynum (18 points, 12 rebounds) and Lamar Odom (14 points, eight rebounds) all played well, and when that happens, the Lakers are nearly impossible to beat. The difference in this game was on the glass, where the Lakers’ length outrebounded the Hornets by 13, including seven additional offensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds equal extra possessions, and extra possessions usually equal points.

Where do the Hornets go from here? I’ve been impressed with Chris Paul and the Hornets this season, and taking two games off the defending champs without your second best player (David West) is not an easy feat. That said, Paul is probably going to become a free agent after next season, so the Hornets will have to re-sign West at an injury discount and find a bona fide shooting guard soon, because Marco Bellineli isn’t going to cut it. (He was serviceable during the season, but had a dreadful series shooting the ball.) There is the makings of a contender here, but to convince CP3 to re-up, the Hornets need West to return to form and they need to land a really good perimeter scorer, and those aren’t easy to find.

Mavericks 103, Blazers 96
Many pundits, including myself, picked the Blazers in this series and it just didn’t happen. The Mavs shrugged off the Game 4 debacle and showed some grit by winning both Game 5 and Game 6 to close out the series. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with 33 points (on 11-of-17 shooting, highly efficient) to go along with 11 rebounds. Shawn Marion (16 points, six rebounds) has been playing well lately, averaging 14 points over the last three games. He’s the X-factor for the Mavs.

Where do the Blazers go from here? Portland has a nice team, but they’re never going to get over the hump with this lineup, largely because Brandon Roy’s knees aren’t healthy enough to get them there. He has four more $15 M+ years on his contract and if he doesn’t somehow get back to form soon, that deal is destined to hamstring the franchise. Portland should be building around LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and maybe Gerald Wallace, so they really need to strike gold by finding a Ty Lawson-type point guard in the late first round of the draft. Kemba Walker is that kind of player, but he’ll probably be long gone by the time the Blazers pick. Portland is in no man’s land (too good for the lottery, but not good enough to contend) and it looks like a long, hard road ahead. Roy’s contract is a great example of why guaranteed deals should be a max of 3-4 years.

What a great series of moments for a guy who has had a very rough season.

I made a point to watch tonight’s game from start to finish to see how the Heat responded to the loss to the Bulls and how they weathered all of the jokes about Heat players crying in the locker room after Sunday’s defeat.

Once again, the effort was there for Miami, but the execution was not. Dwyane Wade (38 points, six rebounds, five assists) was excellent, and LeBron (31 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists) was pretty damn good. That means the rest of the roster accounted for just 27 points, including Chris Bosh, who shot a dreadful 3-for-11 and scored just seven points.

He was completely outplayed by LaMarcus Aldridge (26 points), who hit jumper after jumper, including a key baseline fadeaway (on Bosh) to push the lead to nine with 2:06 to play.

But the difference in the game was Gerald Wallace (22 points, nine rebounds), who keyed the Blazers’ bench and made LeBron work on both ends of the court. Wallace was a great acquisition for the Blazers and he seems to be fitting in quickly because at heart he’s more of a glue guy than he is a player who needs the ball in his hands. Brandon Roy (14 points) also came off the bench and hit a key three pointer late in the game to keep the Heat at bay.

Back to the Heat — they did run some pick and roll with Wade and LeBron, and for the most part it was successful, but the Blazers didn’t do a very good job defending it because it took them by surprise. Whenever Wade has the ball, his defender should go underneath LeBron’s ball screen and force Wade to shoot the three or dribble into the switch. By going underneath, Wade’s defender would be in great position to switch onto LeBron and defend his roll to the hoop.

On Thursday, Miami hosts the red-hot Lakers, who will be looking to avenge their blowout loss to the Heat on Christmas Day. It should be a good one.

GMs around the league were worried that there wouldn’t be much action leading up to Thursday’s trade deadline, but once the Carmelo Anthony trade went down, there has been a flurry of activity highlighted by the Nets’ acquisition of Deron Williams.

Here are five more trades that should happen, but probably won’t. They generally include one older player on a bad team that isn’t going anywhere.

Click on each trade’s headline to see it in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Steve Nash to Atlanta for Jamal Crawford and two first round picks
Free Steve Nash! The Hawks aren’t the ideal destination for Nash, but the Hawks really need a floor leader and the team has the defensive frontcourt (Josh Smith, Al Horford) to make up for Nash’s weakness on that end of the court. Smith and Horford would work well in Nash’s patented screen-and-roll and he would take the pressure off of Joe Johnson to create as the shot clock is winding down. The Suns aren’t going to get much out of this deal other than cap relief (Crawford’s deal is expiring) and a couple of first round picks, but Nash is 37 years old and deserves to play in the postseason. The Suns aren’t going anywhere anyway.

2. Rip Hamilton to Chicago for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer
Rip can still play. He’s averaging 13.3 points per game and his shooting 40%+ from 3PT even though his minutes are sporadic. He works hard on defense and has kept himself in great shape throughout his career, so he should be able to contribute for the remainder of his contract. His spot up jumper would be a nice fit alongside Derrick Rose in the Chicago backcourt. The Pistons would be rid of the headache of keeping Rip on the roster without playing him and would get a couple of youngish wings in Korver and Brewer that could actually contribute.

3. Mo Williams to Portland for Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez
The Blazers are currently sitting in the #5 spot in the West and could use a dynamic point guard who can create and shoot it while Brandon Roy comes back from his knee injury. Williams is good enough to run the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge, but he’s also a spot shooter, so he’d be a solid fit if/when Roy does come back and dominate the ball. For Williams, the Cavs would get Fernandez who still has some upside as a 25-year-old swingman who gave Team USA fits in the 2008 Olympics. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter and would do well with more minutes in Cleveland. The Blazers could throw in their first round pick if a sweetener was needed.

4. Gerald Wallace to Dallas for Roddy Beaubois and Caron Butler
The Mavs could use a swingman to replace Caron Butler and Wallace fits the mold. He’s not a great shooter, but he would complement Dirk Nowitzki with his toughness, defense and rebounding. Beaubois is a good young prospect, but the Mavs might smell blood as the Western Conference has been depleted by trades while the Lakers seem more vulnerable than ever. The Bobcats would save about $18 million over the next two years and get a star on the rise in Beaubois. (He had an 18.59 PER in his rookie season.)

5. Steven Jackson to New Orleans for Marcus Thornton, Marcus Banks and Willie Green
The Bobcats continue remaking their backcourt with the acquisition of a good young scorer in Thornton, while also saving $19 million (minus whatever they eventually pay Thornton) over the next two seasons. In return, the Hornets get Jackson, a grizzled vet who can still score in bunches and take the pressure off Chris Paul and David West. Chemistry is always an issue, but Jackson should do fine with an established alpha dog like Paul who is going to be the one setting him up for open shot after open shot.

The kid can’t catch a break…

A ligament in Oden’s left knee is damaged, to the point where it will require season-ending microfracture surgery.

Friday’s microfracture procedure in Colorado will be the third season-ending surgery Oden has experienced in his four years in Portland. In September of 2007, before he had even played an NBA game, Oden had microfracture on his right knee.

When healthy, Oden has shown tremendous potential. In the seven games leading up to his injury last season, he averaged 15.6 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, which would be borderline All-Star numbers if the Trail Blazers were a contender.

But he has only managed to play 82 games in four seasons, and appears to have chronic problems with his knees. Now that Brandon Roy is dealing with his own knee issues (he apparently has no cartilage left), one wonders what could have been had the Blazers drafted Kevin Durant instead of Oden back in 2007.

This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.

#15: New York Knicks
The Knicks missed out on LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh this summer, but they did land Amare Stoudemire, and also acquired Raymond Felton to run the point. David Lee is gone, but New York did get a good young player in Anthony Randolph to take his place. In other words, this Knicks team is going to look a lot different than last year’s club, and probably for the better. Newcomers Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike, Roger Mason, (promising) Russian center Timofey Mozgov along with Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas will round out Mike D’Antoni’s rotation. Cap-wise, the Knicks are still in good shape. Eddy Curry’s $11 M expiring deal can be used as trade bait or the franchise can just let it come off the books, creating around $18 million in cap space next summer, which they could use to sign Carmelo Anthony if he hits free agency. The only big contract on the payroll is Stoudemire’s deal, and the Knicks really need him to stay healthy in order to get their money’s worth. This looks like a franchise on the rise, but they need to land one more star to threaten the upper echelon of the East.

#14: Atlanta Hawks
Entering this summer’s free agency period, no one thought that Joe Johnson was going to be the guy to sign the biggest contract, but that’s exactly what happened, and there’s a good chance that the Hawks come to regret the decision to offer him a max deal. This team has improved dramatically over the past few years, but doesn’t seem to be in any danger of making the Finals. The Hawks were pushed to seven games by an Andrew Bogut-less Bucks team. If that series proved anything, it’s that the Hawks are a long way from competing for an NBA title. Still, there’s enough talent here — Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Mike Bibby — to keep the Hawks competitive, but at the very best, Atlanta is just treading water in a conference that got a lot tougher this summer. Financially, I wouldn’t say that the team is screwed, but it’s going to be very difficult to add any talent to the roster. They should be able to keep the Johnson-Smith-Horford core together, however, and that should guarantee 40+ wins for the next few years.

#13: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks’ emergence as an Eastern Conference upstart was one of the better stories of the 2009-10 season. The rise was a confluence of events — namely Andrew Bogut’s development as one of the best two-way centers in the league, the electric play of rookie point guard Brandon Jennings, the savvy trade for underrated swingman John Salmons and Scott Skiles’ ability to get his players to work on the defensive end. This summer, the Bucks added Corey Maggette (a move that will actually save them money this season), Drew Gooden and Jon Brockman, who collectively should bolster the team’s frontcourt. There are two big questions heading into the season: 1) Is Andrew Bogut healthy enough to play at a high level? and 2) Will Scott Skiles’ disciplined play start to wear on his team? The answer to those questions will determine whether or not the young Bucks will finish as a Top 5 seed in the East or be battling for a playoff spot late in the season. From a payroll standpoint, Michael Redd’s bloated salary will finally come off the books next summer, which will give the Bucks about $10 million in cap space In the long run, John Hammond may come to regret giving long-term contracts to Salmons and Gooden, but in the short term, those players will help to make this club competitive. Fear the deer.

#12: Portland Trail Blazers
It seems like every season, the Blazers look like they’re on the verge of joining the West’s elite and every season, injuries take their toll. There’s no doubt that Portland’s roster is talented, but can Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden (or Marcus Camby) stay healthy throughout the year? Because you need to be on the court in order to play. Seriously. Another issue may be Rudy Fernandez, who thinks he should be getting starter’s minutes even though he plays the same position as the team’s best player. Newcomer Wes Matthews will bolster the Blazers’ rotation at the wing, especially if Fernandez gets his wish and is traded. Cap-wise, the Blazers won’t have any significant flexibility until the summer of 2012, when Camby’s deal comes off the books. Still, with Roy and Aldridge in tow, Portland should be an attractive landing spot for a top tier free agent. Unfortunately, the Blazers just don’t seem like they’re ever going to put it together, and by firing the architect that put this team together (Kevin Pritchard), it has put the franchise in flux.

#11: Houston Rockets
Looking for a darkhorse in the West? Look no further. If Yao Ming can stay healthy (and that’s a real big IF), the Rockets are primed for a great season. They have potent backcourt with Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin, and a pair of do-the-dirty work forwards in Shane Battier and Luis Scola, who is coming off a terrific run at the 2010 FIBA World Championship. The bench is good too. The big question is whether or not Yao can enter the playoffs in good health. If he can, the Rockets will be a good bet to make a deep run. And Yao needs a good season since he’s entering the final year of his deal. He has spent the better part of the last few seasons injured, and we’re at the point where we’re wondering if a franchise can truly build around a player that is this injury-prone. With Yao, Battier and Jared Jeffries coming off the books next summer, the Rockets figure to have around $19 million in cap space, which puts the franchise in good position to move on if Yao’s feet continue to give him problems.

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I keep hearing that Rudy Fernandez is unhappy with the amount of playing time he has been getting in Portland, and that he’s angling for a trade to a team where he’ll have an opportunity to play more minutes.

Fine. But does he deserve to play more minutes?

In 2008-09, he averaged 25.5 minutes per game. In 2009-10, that number fell to 23.2. In order to determine if Fernandez should get starter’s minutes (which I define as around 28 min per game), I parsed out those games where he played 28+ minutes to see if he played any better with that much run. Here’s what I found:

Obviously, his numbers are going to go up the more minutes he plays, so the key numbers to look at are his shooting percentages and his Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which provides a good overview of what Fernandez brings to the table statistically on a per minute basis. He does play about 8% better (in terms of per minute stats) when he gets 28+ minutes per game. But that’s to be expected, assuming a player is in good physical shape and can play extra minutes. The more minutes you play the more comfortable you are, and the more comfortable you are, the better you’ll play.

However, his EPM of .400 in starter’s minutes is not particularly good. There are 53 shooting guards and small forwards that averaged 28+ minutes per game this season, and the group’s average EPM was .458. Fernandez would rank #38 (or in the 30th percentile) if he were included in this group, just ahead of guys like O.J. Mayo, Richard Jefferson, Rip Hamilton, Marvin Williams, Ryan Gomes and Eric Gordon.

Looking only at shooting guards, Fernandez’s performance in 28+ minutes would trail John Salmons (.401), Ray Allen (.426), Jason Terry (.431) and Anthony Morrow (.432).

Moreover, he ranks ahead of several players — Ronnie Brewer, Courtney Lee, Ron Artest and Thabo Sefolosha — who are known more for their defense than anything they produce offensively or statistically. Fernandez’s defense is considered to be mediocre at best.

So to answer the question posed in the title of this post — no, he does not deserve to start, at least not for a playoff team. Virtually everyone who ranks below him in EPM plays for a lottery team or is known more for their defense than their offense.

He may very well get his wish and find a new home, but the chances of him finding a situation where he’s going to get starter’s minutes on a playoff-caliber team certainly seem slim.

His coach, Nate McMillan, sums it up pretty well:

“The thing about it, anybody in the league can use him,” McMillan said. “He’s a good player. He’s a rotational player. For some teams, he’s going to be able to start. For some teams, he’s going to have to come off the bench. If he goes to Boston, he’s probably coming off the bench behind one of those guys, Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. So it just depends on where he goes as far as his role and how he would play. But his talent, there are a lot of teams that can use him and take advantage of what he does. But we’ll see what happens.”