In Bill Simmons’ NBA preview, he lists the 33 most intriguing people of the 2009-10 season. Here are a couple of excerpts.

On the Blazers’ acquisition of Andre Miller…

21. Andre Miller
We knew Miller was a bad fit when the Blazers signed him. It just didn’t feel right. He’s a moody loner; they had great chemistry last season. He needs the ball in his hands; so does Brandon Roy. He likes freelancing; Nate McMillan is hands on. But Portland felt obligated to spend its extra cap money, and nobody else was pursuing Miller, so what transpired was the equivalent of two single wedding guests going through the motions on the dance floor.

I could use someone, and you could use someone. Unfortunately, I hate bald guys and I have a tiny butt; you’re bald and you love bubble butts. We have no spark and are destined to fail. But crap, there’s nobody better. Screw it, would you like to come back to my room?

I get Portland’s thinking: It wanted to turn that cap space into an asset. And I get Miller’s thinking: He wanted to get paid and hoped things would work out. But now we’re here. Incredibly, Portland plans on bringing Miller off the bench. He’s already miserable. (And available, by the way. Make Kevin Pritchard an offer. Seriously, call him right now.) So what did we learn? Just because you have cap space doesn’t mean you HAVE to use it.

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According to Yahoo! Sports, the total value of the contract is $65 million to $70 million, with some hard-to-reach bonuses.

This summer, I pegged his value at $13-$14 million per season, and he signed for an average of $13 M plus potential bonuses.

So is he worth it?

Bill Simmons has this to say about the deal:

It continues to floor me that anyone would overpay someone who isn’t a franchise player during these rocky economic times. Like Portland this week — the Trail Blazers inked LaMarcus Aldridge to a five-year, $65 million extension, a deal that might have made sense in the 2006 market, but not right now. I like LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s solid. In this climate, he should not make more than $8 million or $9 million a year. The cap might drop $6 million next season for all we know. Also, inking anyone to an extension that early means you can’t trade him for two solid years. You’re basically marrying the guy. Which means Portland married a power forward who doesn’t play inside and grabs seven to eight rebounds a game. With nobody else bidding for him, no real urgency to do a deal for another year and no idea whether declining revenue will keep wrecking the cap. This makes sense … how? And you thought the NBA was getting smarter.

Simmons often does this — he second guesses a signing and then lists all the perceived faults of the player. Let’s not forget that Aldridge averages 18.1 points on 48% shooting, which creates lots of driving lanes for Brandon Roy. The Blazers don’t want a power forward that hangs out in the lane. They already have a couple of centers that do this. Portland wants to surround Roy with shooters so that he can get to the rim with ease.

The Blazers probably overspent a little, but they have the peace of mind that they have their second best player locked up for the next five years. There was no way to convince him that he is only worth “$8 million or $9 million” without letting him hit free agency. (He’s worth more than that, for the record.) By the time he’s convinced, there’s so much ill will between the two sides that a deal never gets done.

Garnett’s knee is just fine. It has been a concern in camp, but apparently KG has his explosion back. In a recent practice, he caught an alley-oop and slammed it home. The Celtics’ fortunes depend heavily on the health of Garnett’s knee. Without him at full strength, they’ll have a tough time competing with the Cavs and Magic. As an NBA fan, a healthy KG is good for the league.

Is Russell Westbrook turning into a dependable point guard? The Oklahoman reports that is A/T ratio in the preseason is 5.4. Last season it was 1.6, which is quite bad. It’s a small sample size, but if Westbrook can get his A/T ratio above 3.0, it will reap dividends for the Thunder. From a fantasy perspective, if he were to cut his turnovers in half and have the same number of assists (which would result in a A/T ratio of about 3.0), then he’d be the 15th most efficient point guard (just below Mo Williams) instead of the 21st most efficient.

Stephen Jackson will play for the Warriors, but he’s not happy about it. There’s a good chance the Warriors will acquiesce and try to fulfill Jackson’s wishes to be traded, but the 31 year-old has three more years remaining on his contract at the tune of $9.3 per season, so there’s no guarantee that a playoff team would be willing to make a move for him. Miami could move Michael Beasley, but Jackson’s contract would ruin the Heat’s financial flexibility next summer. The Suns could use Jackson to replace an aging Grant Hill, but they’re in financial trouble. The Hornets probably make the most sense, but are they willing to spend?

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This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back over the course of the next couple of weeks for previews of each division.

Denver Nuggets (6)
The Nuggets are coming off a 54-28 record and a Northwest Division title. Of their top rotation players, they return all but Linas Kleiza (Olympiakos) and Dahntay Jones (Indiana). HC George Karl hopes that J.R. Smith can be a consistent starting shooting guard, but he won’t be afraid to use Arron Afflalo if Smith doesn’t play solid defense (or with his head on straight). Much of the credit to Denver’s fine season is given to Chauncey Billups, who provided steady play and leadership at point guard, but the health of Nene and Kenyon Martin should not be overlooked. The Nuggets re-signed Chris “The Birdman” Andersen to provide energy, rebounding and shot blocking off the bench. If the front line can stay healthy, Billups can stay productive at 33, and Smith can fulfill his considerable potential, then the Nuggets have enough talent to reach the Western Conference Finals for a second straight season. Even so, it’s hard to see Denver upending a healthy Lakers or Spurs squad in a seven-game series.

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David Lee wooed by Blazers, but was worried about playing time. Portland offered $28 million over four years, but Lee didn’t think there were enough minutes to be had with LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden already on the front line. It looks as if Lee left $21 million in guaranteed money on the table to stay with the Knicks and play out the season. This is a big risk, but it may pay off next summer.

Blazers, Aldridge still talking extension. While it’s good to hear that negotiations aren’t at a standstill, it’s still worrisome that a deal has not yet been finalized. Aldridge is not a no-brainer max-contract guy, so right now, the Blazers are trying to convince his agent that Aldridge is not worth the max. This can be a tough pill to swallow, expecially with all those teams sitting on loads of cap space next summer. If Aldridge becomes a restricted free agent in 2010 and gets a max deal in the form of an offer sheet, then the Blazers will probably match. But it’s their job to get him for what they think he’s worth, and right now the franchise has the leverage.

Monta Ellis warming up to Stephen Curry. Ellis was worried that Curry was just a shooter, but he’s shown the ability to create (specifically the nine assists he had in the Warriors’ first preseason game). I’m not sure why Ellis is so concerned with the team’s front office decisions, as he should be focused on having a bounce-back year after a fairly disastrous 2008-09 season. Curry and Ellis may face some matchup problems on the defensive end, but they have the potential to create as many problems for their opponents on the other end of the court.

LeBron not a fan of the “sit down” rule. I don’t blame him. He doesn’t want to see the emotion sucked out of the game, and that’s what this rule does. The league doesn’t want its players to block the view of the fans that pay thousands and thousands of dollars for premier seats, but there has to be a compromise here. Why not have a rule where the players can stand up to cheer a play but have to sit down within some set amount of time?

Joe Freeman of The Oregonian wrote an interesting article that delves into Greg Oden and how he spent his summer.

There’s no question that a looser, less stressed and seemingly liberated Oden roamed the Rose Garden on Monday. So where did this transformation come from?

It all started on June 16, when assistant coach Bill Bayno arrived in Columbus, Ohio, to put Oden through a relentless and meticulous offseason workout. Four times a week, twice a day, Oden underwent a series of rigorous basketball drills designed to expand his offensive game, polish his shot-blocking and rebounding ability and improve his conditioning.

In the mornings, Bayno and Oden — sometimes with the help of former Blazer Brian Grant and Ohio State graduates now playing professionally overseas — would do drills to help improve Oden’s lateral quickness, coordination and reflexes. Some were basic, as Oden would have to block 16 shots in a row from various sides of the basket. Others were more complex, such as when Bayno would attack Oden with two-on-one and three-on-one fast breaks and require Oden to stop the ball, read passes, react quickly to snap passes and get himself in position to block shots.

The goal, Bayno says, was to help Oden rid himself of the foul trouble that plagued him last season and become more agile and more instinctive around the rim. And when defense wasn’t the focus, Bayno helped Oden work on improving his offensive repertoire, including jump hooks, baby jumpers and his face-up game.

Morning sessions lasted roughly 90 minutes and always concluded with Oden running full-court sprints and stairs. Then, in the evening, Oden would return to the gymnasium for pickup games, where he would experiment with the tools he had been working on with Bayno.

Earlier this year, I posed the question — how much better would the Blazers be had they drafted Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden? — and the answer is that right now they’d be a lot better. Durant is a franchise player, while Oden, thus far, is an injury-prone, foul-prone center. He has a lot of work to do to justify the Blazers’ pick in 2007.

But I’m rooting for him. From everything I’ve read about Oden and on his blog, he seems like a genuinely nice, thoughtful guy. I’d love to see him reach his potential.

Monta Ellis is still unhappy with the Warriors. Jonathan Abrams (via Twitter): “Monta Ellis may ask out of the #Warriors too soon, via some1 in his camp. Still bitterness on both sides from the mo-ped fiasco.” I don’t know why Ellis is angry at anyone but himself when it comes to his moped accident. The team invests a ton of money in a guy and he’s out riding around on a moped. Unbelievable.

T-Mac doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone…but himself. Tracy McGrady: “I don’t have to prove to nobody that I still got it.” If NBA contracts weren’t guaranteed, McGrady would have been cut long ago. Even though he’s just 30 years old, T-Mac has missed 109 games over the last four seasons, or 33% of the Rockets’ games. He’s in a contract year, so he’s highly motivated to prove that he’s healthy and ready to contribute. With Yao Ming out for the season, T-Mac’s return may be the most compelling story coming out of Houston.

LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t happy about the lack of a long-term deal. This is a little perplexing. Unless Aldridge’s camp thinks that he’s a max player, I don’t see why it would be difficult to come to a number. I pegged his value at $13-$14 million per season and that seems reasonable for a guy with his skill set.

Stephen Jackson doesn’t think the Warriors are getting better. Jackson: “It feels like we’re not getting better.” Jackson said in late August that he was “looking to leave” the Warriors, and Don Nelson said that the team would move him if the right deal came along.

Andre Miller doesn’t seem too happy in Portland. It might be the fact that Steve Blake is still the Blazers’ starting point guard, or it might be the tedious media events he was required to attend, but this is a situation to watch.

I think we can file this one under “obvious,” since the Magic didn’t re-sign Turkoglu, but it’s interesting nonetheless…

Per Real GM…

In a conversation with Blazers’ general manager Kevin Pritchard, [Magic GM Otis] Smith told Pritchard that he had “caught a break” with Turkoglu signing elsewhere and made it clear the Blazers “weren’t missing out on anything,” sources tell RealGM’s Alex Kennedy.

Smith didn’t feel that Turkoglu was worth the five-year, $50 million Portland was ready to spend.

Turkoglu is 30. If anyone thinks that he’s going to be worth $11-$12 million when he’s 34 or 35 and at the back end of this contract, I’d like to have some of what they’re smoking. But both the Blazers and the Raptors knew that in order to get Turkoglu to agree to a deal, it had to be a long-term contract.

Smith didn’t say this publicly, so I’m not going to blast him for throwing a former player under the bus. But it still seems odd that he’d be badmouthing Turkoglu — one of the main reasons the Magic made an appearance in the Finals — to other GMs around the league. When Jameer Nelson went down, Turkoglu took over the ballhandling duties and acted as a point forward. He ran countless pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, dished out a bunch of assists and hit several huge shots. Simply stated, Orlando wouldn’t have made it to the Finals without him.

Is he worth $10 million a year heading into his thirties? Probably not. But he’ll probably earn his keep for the first few years of that contract, and that’s all the Raptors are worried about right now.

Per ESPN…

Agent Bob Myers confirmed to The Associated Press late Wednesday night that Roy agreed in principle to a contract at the NBA maximum salary. The fifth year is at Roy’s option. Specific numbers won’t be available until the NBA salary cap is set next July. This year a starting max contract would be worth $82 million over the course of five years. However, next year the cap is expected to go down between 5 and 10 percent. That means the value of Roy’s contract will go down, too.

The 25-year-old Roy will earn just under $4 million this season, the final year of his rookie contract. The new deal is likely to net him around $14 million for the 2010-11 season, and he will receive 10.5 percent raises on his base salary each season from 2011-2012 through the end of the deal.

From the start, this looked like it should be an easy deal to negotiate. Brandon Roy is a franchise-type player, so he deserves franchise-type money. And he got it.

His knees are a bit of a concern, but they haven’t slowed him down much in his three-year NBA career. Last season, he averaged 22.6 points, 5.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds in 78 games. While his overall field goal percentage (48.0%) is outstanding for a shooting guard, I’d like to see him continue to improve his three-point accuracy, which was a decent 37.7% last season. However, it’s tough for franchise players to post efficient shooting stats because they’re asked to take so many shots up against the shot clock.

This is obviously a good signing for the Blazers. Now they can turn their attention to re-signing LaMarcus Aldridge.

Players drafted in 2006 are eligible to sign an extension this summer. A couple of months ago, I tried to estimate what some of the big-name guys would sign for.

Brandon Roy, G, Blazers
Age: 24
PER: 24.08
Comparables: Kobe Bryant ($23.0 M), Dwyane Wade ($15.8 M)
The Blazers hit a home run with Roy. In his third season, he averaged 22.6 points, 5.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. Moreover, he did it efficiently, shooting a stellar 48% from the field, 38% from long range and 82% from the line. Simply stated, he is one of the league’s best all-around players. I’d be shocked if the Blazers didn’t offer him a max contract, though he may elect to sign a shorter three- or four-year deal (like LeBron and Wade did) to give him more flexibility in the future. (Just to throw a little salt in the wounds, the Bobcats, Bulls, Hawks and Celtics all had a shot at Roy on the night of the draft and passed.)
Value: $14.5 M – $15.5 M per year, depending on the salary cap

Well, count me as mildly shocked. The two sides actually disagreed on the length, but it was the Blazers who reportedly wanted the shorter deal, not Roy. While one would think that the team would want to lock up their superstar for as long as possible, it is a huge investment. Roy does have a history of injury, so if he were to suffer a major setback, it would be a blow to the Blazers’ books.

But as ESPN has reported, the two sides are nearing a deal.

“We’ve had very productive discussions recently and are optimistic we will reach a deal soon,” Roy’s agent, Bob Myers said, according to the newspaper.

According to the report, Roy has been seeking a four-year deal with a player option for the fifth year at a maximum $82 million.

That works out to more than $16 million per year, which is a pretty penny. But a healthy Roy is worth it.