It was a Graduation Night of sorts as three teams closed out their respective series instead of letting things go to a Game 7.

Hawks 84, Magic 81
Joe Johnson (23 points) and Jamal Crawford (19) led the way for the Hawks, who shot just just 39% from the field (to the Magic’s 43%), but still managed to win due to three extra three-pointers and seven more offensive rebounds. Dwight Howard had 25 points, 15 rebounds, three blocks and six turnovers. He averaged 5.5 turnovers against the Hawks, which is way too many for any player, especially a big man.

Where do the Magic go from here? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Wasn’t it just two years ago that Orlando was an up-and-coming team giving the Lakers a good run in the NBA Finals? Pay attention, kids. This is what trading for Vince Carter (and then Gilbert Arenas) will do to you. Whatever mojo the Magic had is clearly gone and they could very well have their own Carmelo Anthony situation brewing with Dwight Howard scheduled to become a free agent after next season.

Lakers 98, Hornets 80
The Lakers enjoyed nice games from each of their top four players. Kobe (24 points), Pau Gasol (16 points, eight rebounds), Andrew Bynum (18 points, 12 rebounds) and Lamar Odom (14 points, eight rebounds) all played well, and when that happens, the Lakers are nearly impossible to beat. The difference in this game was on the glass, where the Lakers’ length outrebounded the Hornets by 13, including seven additional offensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds equal extra possessions, and extra possessions usually equal points.

Where do the Hornets go from here? I’ve been impressed with Chris Paul and the Hornets this season, and taking two games off the defending champs without your second best player (David West) is not an easy feat. That said, Paul is probably going to become a free agent after next season, so the Hornets will have to re-sign West at an injury discount and find a bona fide shooting guard soon, because Marco Bellineli isn’t going to cut it. (He was serviceable during the season, but had a dreadful series shooting the ball.) There is the makings of a contender here, but to convince CP3 to re-up, the Hornets need West to return to form and they need to land a really good perimeter scorer, and those aren’t easy to find.

Mavericks 103, Blazers 96
Many pundits, including myself, picked the Blazers in this series and it just didn’t happen. The Mavs shrugged off the Game 4 debacle and showed some grit by winning both Game 5 and Game 6 to close out the series. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with 33 points (on 11-of-17 shooting, highly efficient) to go along with 11 rebounds. Shawn Marion (16 points, six rebounds) has been playing well lately, averaging 14 points over the last three games. He’s the X-factor for the Mavs.

Where do the Blazers go from here? Portland has a nice team, but they’re never going to get over the hump with this lineup, largely because Brandon Roy’s knees aren’t healthy enough to get them there. He has four more $15 M+ years on his contract and if he doesn’t somehow get back to form soon, that deal is destined to hamstring the franchise. Portland should be building around LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and maybe Gerald Wallace, so they really need to strike gold by finding a Ty Lawson-type point guard in the late first round of the draft. Kemba Walker is that kind of player, but he’ll probably be long gone by the time the Blazers pick. Portland is in no man’s land (too good for the lottery, but not good enough to contend) and it looks like a long, hard road ahead. Roy’s contract is a great example of why guaranteed deals should be a max of 3-4 years.

Portland was down by 23 points with 15 minutes to play when they handed the ball to Brandon Roy and let him go to work. This is what happened:

What a great series of moments for a guy who has had a very rough season.

I made a point to watch tonight’s game from start to finish to see how the Heat responded to the loss to the Bulls and how they weathered all of the jokes about Heat players crying in the locker room after Sunday’s defeat.

Once again, the effort was there for Miami, but the execution was not. Dwyane Wade (38 points, six rebounds, five assists) was excellent, and LeBron (31 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists) was pretty damn good. That means the rest of the roster accounted for just 27 points, including Chris Bosh, who shot a dreadful 3-for-11 and scored just seven points.

He was completely outplayed by LaMarcus Aldridge (26 points), who hit jumper after jumper, including a key baseline fadeaway (on Bosh) to push the lead to nine with 2:06 to play.

But the difference in the game was Gerald Wallace (22 points, nine rebounds), who keyed the Blazers’ bench and made LeBron work on both ends of the court. Wallace was a great acquisition for the Blazers and he seems to be fitting in quickly because at heart he’s more of a glue guy than he is a player who needs the ball in his hands. Brandon Roy (14 points) also came off the bench and hit a key three pointer late in the game to keep the Heat at bay.

Back to the Heat — they did run some pick and roll with Wade and LeBron, and for the most part it was successful, but the Blazers didn’t do a very good job defending it because it took them by surprise. Whenever Wade has the ball, his defender should go underneath LeBron’s ball screen and force Wade to shoot the three or dribble into the switch. By going underneath, Wade’s defender would be in great position to switch onto LeBron and defend his roll to the hoop.

On Thursday, Miami hosts the red-hot Lakers, who will be looking to avenge their blowout loss to the Heat on Christmas Day. It should be a good one.

GMs around the league were worried that there wouldn’t be much action leading up to Thursday’s trade deadline, but once the Carmelo Anthony trade went down, there has been a flurry of activity highlighted by the Nets’ acquisition of Deron Williams.

Here are five more trades that should happen, but probably won’t. They generally include one older player on a bad team that isn’t going anywhere.

Click on each trade’s headline to see it in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Steve Nash to Atlanta for Jamal Crawford and two first round picks
Free Steve Nash! The Hawks aren’t the ideal destination for Nash, but the Hawks really need a floor leader and the team has the defensive frontcourt (Josh Smith, Al Horford) to make up for Nash’s weakness on that end of the court. Smith and Horford would work well in Nash’s patented screen-and-roll and he would take the pressure off of Joe Johnson to create as the shot clock is winding down. The Suns aren’t going to get much out of this deal other than cap relief (Crawford’s deal is expiring) and a couple of first round picks, but Nash is 37 years old and deserves to play in the postseason. The Suns aren’t going anywhere anyway.

2. Rip Hamilton to Chicago for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer
Rip can still play. He’s averaging 13.3 points per game and his shooting 40%+ from 3PT even though his minutes are sporadic. He works hard on defense and has kept himself in great shape throughout his career, so he should be able to contribute for the remainder of his contract. His spot up jumper would be a nice fit alongside Derrick Rose in the Chicago backcourt. The Pistons would be rid of the headache of keeping Rip on the roster without playing him and would get a couple of youngish wings in Korver and Brewer that could actually contribute.

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The kid can’t catch a break…

A ligament in Oden’s left knee is damaged, to the point where it will require season-ending microfracture surgery.

Friday’s microfracture procedure in Colorado will be the third season-ending surgery Oden has experienced in his four years in Portland. In September of 2007, before he had even played an NBA game, Oden had microfracture on his right knee.

When healthy, Oden has shown tremendous potential. In the seven games leading up to his injury last season, he averaged 15.6 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, which would be borderline All-Star numbers if the Trail Blazers were a contender.

But he has only managed to play 82 games in four seasons, and appears to have chronic problems with his knees. Now that Brandon Roy is dealing with his own knee issues (he apparently has no cartilage left), one wonders what could have been had the Blazers drafted Kevin Durant instead of Oden back in 2007.

This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.

#15: New York Knicks
The Knicks missed out on LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh this summer, but they did land Amare Stoudemire, and also acquired Raymond Felton to run the point. David Lee is gone, but New York did get a good young player in Anthony Randolph to take his place. In other words, this Knicks team is going to look a lot different than last year’s club, and probably for the better. Newcomers Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike, Roger Mason, (promising) Russian center Timofey Mozgov along with Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas will round out Mike D’Antoni’s rotation. Cap-wise, the Knicks are still in good shape. Eddy Curry’s $11 M expiring deal can be used as trade bait or the franchise can just let it come off the books, creating around $18 million in cap space next summer, which they could use to sign Carmelo Anthony if he hits free agency. The only big contract on the payroll is Stoudemire’s deal, and the Knicks really need him to stay healthy in order to get their money’s worth. This looks like a franchise on the rise, but they need to land one more star to threaten the upper echelon of the East.

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I keep hearing that Rudy Fernandez is unhappy with the amount of playing time he has been getting in Portland, and that he’s angling for a trade to a team where he’ll have an opportunity to play more minutes.

Fine. But does he deserve to play more minutes?

In 2008-09, he averaged 25.5 minutes per game. In 2009-10, that number fell to 23.2. In order to determine if Fernandez should get starter’s minutes (which I define as around 28 min per game), I parsed out those games where he played 28+ minutes to see if he played any better with that much run. Here’s what I found:

Obviously, his numbers are going to go up the more minutes he plays, so the key numbers to look at are his shooting percentages and his Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which provides a good overview of what Fernandez brings to the table statistically on a per minute basis. He does play about 8% better (in terms of per minute stats) when he gets 28+ minutes per game. But that’s to be expected, assuming a player is in good physical shape and can play extra minutes. The more minutes you play the more comfortable you are, and the more comfortable you are, the better you’ll play.

However, his EPM of .400 in starter’s minutes is not particularly good. There are 53 shooting guards and small forwards that averaged 28+ minutes per game this season, and the group’s average EPM was .458. Fernandez would rank #38 (or in the 30th percentile) if he were included in this group, just ahead of guys like O.J. Mayo, Richard Jefferson, Rip Hamilton, Marvin Williams, Ryan Gomes and Eric Gordon.

Looking only at shooting guards, Fernandez’s performance in 28+ minutes would trail John Salmons (.401), Ray Allen (.426), Jason Terry (.431) and Anthony Morrow (.432).

Moreover, he ranks ahead of several players — Ronnie Brewer, Courtney Lee, Ron Artest and Thabo Sefolosha — who are known more for their defense than anything they produce offensively or statistically. Fernandez’s defense is considered to be mediocre at best.

So to answer the question posed in the title of this post — no, he does not deserve to start, at least not for a playoff team. Virtually everyone who ranks below him in EPM plays for a lottery team or is known more for their defense than their offense.

He may very well get his wish and find a new home, but the chances of him finding a situation where he’s going to get starter’s minutes on a playoff-caliber team certainly seem slim.

His coach, Nate McMillan, sums it up pretty well:

“The thing about it, anybody in the league can use him,” McMillan said. “He’s a good player. He’s a rotational player. For some teams, he’s going to be able to start. For some teams, he’s going to have to come off the bench. If he goes to Boston, he’s probably coming off the bench behind one of those guys, Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. So it just depends on where he goes as far as his role and how he would play. But his talent, there are a lot of teams that can use him and take advantage of what he does. But we’ll see what happens.”

Earlier today, I suggested a few trades that the teams — Lakers, Knicks and Magic — reportedly on Chris Paul’s short list could offer the Hornets.

Chris Broussard is now reporting that L.A. is not one of Paul’s preferred destinations, while Portland and Dallas are. Here’s a look at each team and the kind of deals they can offer.

TRAIL BLAZERS

Would both teams agree to a straight up Chris Paul/Brandon Roy swap? Since Roy is a base year compensation player, other assets would need to be included. Roy’s knees are a concern, but he’d give the Hornets a great backcourt (with Darren Collison) to build around. If the Blazers are unwilling to part with Roy, they could send LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller to the Hornets for Paul. If the Hornets require that any deal include Emeka Okafor’s massive contract, the Blazers could include Joel Przybilla, Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph to even things out.

I doubt the Hornets would go for a deal that didn’t include Roy or Aldridge, but you never know. How about this deal that would include Przybilla and Miller along with Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden?

MAVERICKS

You know Mark Cuban started salivating when he heard that the Mavs were on Paul’s short list, but what can Dallas offer? They have plenty of talent, but they don’t have the kind of young talent that the Hornets would be interested in. Their best young player, Roddy Beaubois, is a guard, and the Hornets don’t really need guards with Collison and Marcus Thornton on the roster. Still, he’s a valuable asset, so he would probably be included.

How about Paul and Okafor for Beaubois, Caron Butler and Tyson Chandler? Chandler can’t be traded with another player, so it would have to be executed as two separate trades (Paul for Chandler and Okafor for Beaubois and Butler). The Mavs would get their guy, but I don’t know how a Chris Paul/Jason Kidd backcourt would work. Still, Dallas shouldn’t turn down a chance at Paul because they still have Kidd.

For the Hornets, they’d get a good young asset in Beaubois and immediate salary cap relief in Butler (who is a good player in his own right) and Chandler. The Mavs could always throw in a couple of first round picks to sweeten the deal. In the short term, New Orleans could start Collison, Thornton, Butler, West and Chandler, and they’d have loads of cap space to reload next summer.

There’s no doubt that the phone lines in New Orleans are burning up with this latest news. Just when you thought the NBA offseason was winding down, this happens.

Late last year, there was some question as to how Andre Miller was fitting in with the Blazers, but in January, he started settling in and had a nice second half of the season. With Brandon Roy out for the foreseeable future, Miller had his best game of the season, posting 31-5-8 along with three steals in a 105-100 win in Phoenix.

The game was pretty nip-and-tuck the whole way, but a 9-3 Blazer run late in the fourth quarter gave Portland a seven-point lead with 1:29 to play. The Suns kept fighting and a pair of missed free throws by Jerryd Bayless with 0:12 to play opened the door for a game-tying three-point attempt by Steve Nash which only hit the front of the rim.

Game 2 is Tuesday night.

The matchups are set and the first round starts this weekend. In the East, the top four teams — Cleveland, Orlando, Boston and Atlanta — seem like good bets to advance, while in the West, I wouldn’t be shocked if the bottom four seeds — Utah, Portland, San Antonio and Oklahoma City — were to make the second round. Here’s a quick look at each series:

Cavaliers vs. Bulls
It’s not often that a team that had a 10-game losing streak end in mid-February recovers and makes the postseason, but that’s exactly what the Bulls have done, winning 10 of their last 14 to capture the final playoff spot in the East. Chicago has the tools to make this a series, and with Shaquille O’Neal coming back from a long break, there’s a chance this could go to six or seven games. But in the end, Cleveland should have plenty of firepower to put the Bulls away.

Celtics vs. Heat
If there’s going to be an upset in the East, this will probably be it. The C’s have limped into the playoffs, losing eight of their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Heat went 18-4 in February and March, but were just 4-3 against teams with winning records. Boston swept the season series despite Dwyane Wade’s terrific numbers (34-5-9, 50% shooting), so if anyone else steps up, the streaking Heat have a good shot at stealing the first or second game and gaining control of the series.

Hawks vs. Bucks
If Andrew Bogut were healthy, I’d pick Milwaukee, but the Bucks are going to have a tough time winning a seven-game series against a pretty good Atlanta team that has won 13 of its last 19 games. The Bucks’ defense could keep the games (and the series) close, but the Hawks should have enough to move on.

Magic vs. Bobcats
Orlando is peaking at the right time, going 19-3 in February and March. However, one of those losses was at home against Charlotte. The Bobcats are playing well too — they’re 16-7 over their last 23 games. Both teams are excellent defesively; they’re tied for first in defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions), so expect a few tight games. But Orlando just has too much talent.

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