Sunday Evening Quick-Hitters: Reactions from Week 10 in the NFL
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/13/2011 @ 9:30 pm)
Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…
- Carlos Rogers is having a resurgence in San Francisco? People left this guy for dead coming out of Washington and all he’s done this year is be the Niners’ best cornerback. He clinched the Niners’ win over the Giants in my eyes. San Francisco had just taken a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter when he picked off Eli Manning (his second of the day) deep in Niner territory. A couple plays later Kendall Hunter raced 17 yards for a touchdown in order to give San Fran a 27-13 lead in an eventual 27-20 victory. The Niners have been getting big plays like that out of their defense all season. They obviously proved today that they’re for real.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (L) and head coach Chan Gailey talk on the sideline against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half of their NFL football game in Arlington, Texas November 13, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
- Do you know who’s not for real? The Buffalo Bills. I have zero confidence that they’ll turn things around, party because of their defense and partly because of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone knew Buffalo’s defense would be overmatched most Sundays and they have been. And everyone knew Fitzpatrick was only going to lead the Bills so far. He was brutal last week and even worse today. It’s struck midnight on this fairytale, which is a shame because I could watch Fred Jackson run all day. Dude is siiiick.
- The Cardinals parted with a starting cornerback in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a second-round pick in 2012, and $65 million in order secure Kevin Kolb as their starting quarterback this season. And John Skelton has two of their three wins on the season. Incredible.
- If you looked hard enough, you probably saw the Ravens’ loss to Seattle coming. Baltimore just swept Pittsburgh and had to travel cross-country to play a Seahawks team that is usually competitive at home. I figured the Ravens would suffer a letdown but the fact that they didn’t lead at any point today was a little jarring. With losses to Tennessee and Seattle as well as a near loss to Arizona at home, it would appear as though John Harbaugh’s team plays down to its competition.
- Speaking of the clock turning Midnight, it’s probably about time the Bengals come back to earth. Don’t get me wrong: they fought hard today against Pittsburgh and gave the Steelers a game until the end. But cornerback Leon Hall looks like he’s out for the season and I just don’t see Cincinnati being able to finish this race on top. That said, the Bengals certainly have something to build off of. Andy Dalton was poised today and A.J. Green is a freaking star in the making.
- Does anyone else feel like the Houston Texans are the NFL equivalent to the Clemson Tigers? You keep waiting for both teams to eventually crash and burn and yet, both keep winning. Granted, Clemson did lose to Georgia Tech a couple of weeks ago and almost dropped its second game to Wake Forest on Saturday but still, you get the point. I keep waiting for the Texans to eventually stumble and they keep racking up double-digit wins without Andre Johnson. Finally, it would seem, we’ll get to see Houston in the postseason.
Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith coaches from the sideline during the second half of their NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints in Atlanta, Georgia November 13, 2011. REUTERS/Tami Chappell (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
- If you’re one of the people who is defending Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth and one from his own 29-yard line in overtime, let me remind you that it’s simple risk vs. reward. If the Falcons pick up that first down, they still have at least 40 yards to go to get into field goal range to possibly win the game. If they don’t pick up the first down, well, we saw what happened when they didn’t. It was a stupid call by a head coach that was simply trying to get lucky. Smith and Mike Mularkey played not to lose the entire game and all of a sudden they decide that they’re going to take a big risk. It was just a stupid decision by a team without a true identity.
- Saint Peters of Joseph, Chris Johnson is alive.
- Huge win for the Saints today but there’s still something off with the boys from Naw’lins. They managed to squander a 10-point lead in under five minutes and if it hadn’t been for Mike Smith’s stupid decision to go for it in overtime, who knows if they would have walked out of the Georgia Dome with a victory. I have no doubt that they’ll win the NFC South because the Falcons still don’t know what they are offensively. But I’m not sure if the Saints can go into Green Bay in the playoffs and win a huge game on the road. Again, there’s just something off.
- You can always count on Michael Vick to mail it in when his team is seemingly out of playoff contention. Granted, his receivers didn’t do him any favors by dropping the ball multiple times in the first half and he was without DeSean Jackson, who was benched after missing a team meeting. But Vick looked completely turned off by the thought of playing football today. In a lot of ways, he is the exact same player as he was in Atlanta and Philadelphia is now paying for his shortcomings as a player. (UPDATE: Apparently Vick played with two broken ribs, which he sustained on the game’s second play. Thus, I take back what I said about him mailing it in. Any player that stays in a professional football game with two broken ribs has a bigger pair than I do. Well done, Mike.)
- Tim Tebow threw eight passes, completed just two of them and was the winning quarterback today in Kansas City. I don’t even care what his numbers are outside of the fact that he’s now 3-1 as the starter. I just want to sit back and watch guys like Phil Simms’ head explode that Tebow keeps winning. These talking heads want to debate about whether or not Tebow will ever be a good passer. That was never a debate. People have said from the start that his motion is too funky for him to be a good passer and yet these media members keep boasting about how he’ll fail. And yet…3-1 as a starter. I love it. Nobody can explain how the dinosaurs became extinct and how Tebow is winning. Tim Tebow: #winning.
- I realize the Niners are a very good football team but leave it to the Giants to beat the Patriots on the road and then erase a lot of the good vibes that have surrounded New York the past week by losing today. Freakin’ Giants.
- The NFC South is now a one-team race. The Saints are clearly the best team in the division, as the Falcons are still suffering an identity crisis and the Bucs are just plain bad. Tampa Bay’s front office thought it could get by without making any significant upgrades in the offseason and figured the team would just win 10 games again. Whoops. Turns out Josh Freeman is going to need more help, Bucs.
- This comment was made by one of our regular readers, Jester of the Apocalypse, earlier this week. He’s a huge Browns fan and was commenting on my Week 10 preview in which I wrote, “this is a game [vs. the Rams] the Browns should win.” Said Jester: You underestimate my Brownies knack for clutching defeat out of the jaws of victory . . . How absolutely, positively appropriate given the debacle that happened in Cleveland today.
- Even after their performance today I’m still not sold on the Cowboys. Outside of their miraculous victory against the Niners in Week 2, they still haven’t beaten a team of substance. I realize the Bills have a winning record but they’re on a downslide. Three weeks ago the ‘Boys were pummeled by a Philadelphia team that has clearly given up on the season and their other losses have coming against New England, Detroit and the Jets. That said, Dallas still has games against Washington, Miami, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia and thus, the playoffs are still well within their reach. I’m just sayin’ I’m not sold. And this is coming from a guy who predicted them to win the NFC East this year.
Chicago Bears cornerback Tim Jennings (26) runs with the ball after intercepting a pass thrown by Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford during the fourth quarter at Soldier Field on November 13, 2011 in Chicago. The Bears won 37-13. UPI/Brian Kersey
- Wow Matthew Stafford was bad today. Granted, he was playing with a fractured index finger and 25-30mph wind gusts but still – wow. Two of his four interceptions were taken back for touchdowns by the Bears, who are now suddenly 6-3 on the season following two huge wins. If Chicago’s offense line can continue to play as well as it has, there’s no reason to believe Lovie Smith’s team won’t make it as a Wild Card.
- All I want for Thanksgiving is for Larry Fitzgerald to have a quarterback willing to throw him the ball every down. Because his seven-catch, 146-yard, two-touchdown performance today proved once again that he can completely take over a game if he gets enough opportunities.
- One week later, the Steelers finally get their big defensive stop to preserve a win.
- Two of the Seahawks’ three wins this year have come against the Giants and Ravens. And yet, they lose to the Browns, 6-3. The NFL is a funny league.
Posted in: NFL
Tags: Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carlos Rogers, Chicago Bears, Chris Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, John Skelton, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Vick, Mike Smith, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL scores, NFL Week 10, nfl week 10 scores, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tim Tebow
2011 Week 9 NFL Primer
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/03/2011 @ 10:18 am)
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tries to get off his pass as he gets hit by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb and safety Haruki Nakamura in the fourth quarter of their NFL football game in Baltimore, Maryland September 11, 2011. REUTERS/Joe Giza (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
There are a couple of really good matchups on this week’s schedule, including Ravens-Steelers, Bucs-Saitns and Packers-Chargers. But none of them compare to this one when you think about the intrigue surrounding this game. Not only were the Giants the ones to ruin the Patriots’ perfect season back in 2007, but New England is also coming off a loss and Bill Belichick never loses when coming off a loss. But for whatever reason, New York has had New England’s number over the years. Could you imagine how burned Belichick would be if the Giants were the ones to end his non-consecutive losing streak? Game…of…the…week.
Ravens @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET
It doesn’t get much better than this, especially when you considering how hot the Steelers are and how badly the Ravens beat Pittsburgh in Baltimore in Week 1. The Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots but Pittsburgh and Baltimore always get up for each other so don’t expect Mike Tomlin’s squad to suffer a letdown. But can Ben Roethlisberger bounce back from his rough Week 1 performance in order to create even more of a divide between these two teams in the AFC North? After brutal matchup after brutal matchup for the Sunday Night Football gang, finally NBC gets a good game.
Bears @ Eagles, 8:30PM ET, Monday
Are the Eagles back? That’s the question on everyone’s mind. They might be but don’t forget Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears, which includes losing 31-26 in Chicago last season. For whatever reason, Vick has never been able to get the best of Brian Urlacher and with the Bears having two weeks to prepare for this game, it’ll be interesting to see how Philly plays following its 34-7 dismantling of Dallas last Sunday.
Bucs @ Saints, 1:00PM ET
I wouldn’t want to be Raheem Morris’ Bucs this weekend. Not only are the Saints steamed that they lost to Tampa three weeks ago but they’re also coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Rams last Sunday. No wonder oddsmakers set the spread at New Orleans –9 despite the fact that this is a divisional game and should be close. If the Bucs can drum up some pressure on Drew Brees using their front four and force turnovers, Tampa could hand New Orleans its second straight loss. But I wouldn’t count on the Bucs pulling off the upset. The Saints have been a different team at home this year. A 62-7-type of team.
Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
We’re about to see what Norv Turner’s squad is made of. They had a win in the bag on Monday night before Philip Rivers fumbled it away and now the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions come in this Sunday. San Diego’s pass rush has been very good this season but its secondary has been picked apart at times. If the Chargers can get after Aaron Rodgers then there’s no reason to think that San Diego can’t pull off the upset – especially at home. But on the other side of the ball, if the Chargers can’t get their running game going then Rodgers may eventually start to pick apart the Bolts’ secondary. This is an extremely interesting matchup.
Jets @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
What a great matchup this will be between one of the best passing attacks in the league and one of the best pass defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense have moved the ball through the air at will but the Jets don’t wilt in coverage. That said, Rex Ryan better get more consistency out of his pass rush or else the Bills could walk away with yet another divisional win. The Jets can’t afford another divisional loss on their record.
Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons have a great opportunity to right the ship after a slow start. If they beat the Colts on Sunday, they’d be 5-3 heading into their big showdown with the Saints next week. But beware the trap. The Saints overlooked the Rams last Sunday and we all saw what happened. Because of the conservative ways of Mike Smith and OC Mike Mularkey, the Falcons have tendency to leave opponents in games. If they allow the Colts to stick around at home, there’s no reason Indy can’t pull off the upset. Atlanta better use New Orleans’ loss to St. Louis last Sunday as a warning of what could happen if it doesn’t come to play this weekend.
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Jim Harbaugh, Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick, Mike Shanahan, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL Preview, NFL Week 9, NFL Week 9 preview, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011 NFL Week 9 Odds & Point Spreads
Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/02/2011 @ 10:07 am)
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick waves for members of his defensive to join him during a timeout in the second quarter of the Pittsburgh Steelers 25-17 win at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on October 30, 2011. UPI/Archie Carpenter
Four spreads of note:
Buccaneers +9 @ Saints, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
For the record, I think this line is set right. The Saints have proven to be much better and much more explosive at home than they have on the road this season. But the Bucs just beat the Saints three weeks ago, are coming off a bye and didn’t just lose to the previously winless Rams. So why are they 9-point underdogs? It’s a revenge game for New Orleans in more ways than one but will the betting public be willing to lay nine points in order to take the Saints? It’ll be interesting to see where this line winds up but either way, it’s not falling to the key number of 7 or rising to the key number of 10 so bettors have a tough decision to make if they choose to wager on this game.
Giants +9 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
I’m starting to develop a very general, very subjective take when it comes to betting on Giants games. If they’re not expected to win, jump on them and be glad to take any points oddsmakers throw your way. If they’re expected to win, either fade them or run like hell. In Week 1 they were expected to beat the Redskins and lost outright as a 2.5-point favorite. Two weeks later when they were 9-point underdogs on the road against the Eagles, they won 29-16. When they were expected to beat the Seahawks in Week 5, they lost outright at home. And when they were expected to run all over the hapless Dolphins last Sunday, they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to win but failed to cover the 9.5-point spread. Granted, they did cover against the Rams in Week 2 and the Cardinals in Week 4 when they were expected to win. But both of those games were a little too close for comfort. What’s my point? I like the G-Men getting 9 points this Sunday, even with Bill Belichick and New England’s win-after-a-loss streak on the line. New York just has a habit of showing up when nobody thinks they will.
Rams +4 at Cardinals, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
I smell a trap. The Rams are coming off a huge upset of the Saints and now they’re 4-point underdogs against a brutal Arizona team? Why isn’t this a 1 or 2 point spread? Even 3 points I can see but 4? This one doesn’t make sense and when a spread doesn’t make sense you either go the opposite way of conventional thinking (in this case, take the Cardinals), or you lay off entirely. I just don’t see how the Cardinals could be favored by anything more than 3 points in a game where both teams are 1-6. Especially seeing as how Kevin Kolb will be a game-time decision with turf toe.
Ravens +3 @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET, Sunday
This game opened at 3.5 but is already down to 3. I think if oddsmakers left the spread at 3.5 they would get more three-way action but I have to believe that public bettors would be all over Pittsburgh with the line sitting at 3. Baltimore has looked like a speedboat without an engine the past two weeks while Pittsburgh has won four in a row, which includes its win over New England last Sunday. The Steelers might suffer a hangover from the Patriot game but I highly doubt it. They’re playing the Ravens; these two teams always get up to play each other. It’ll be interesting to see where this line winds up at kickoff.
2011 NFL Week 9 Point Spreads:
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL odds, nfl odds 2011, nfl point spreads, nfl point spreads 2011, NFL Week 9, nfl week 9 odds, nfl week 9 point spreads, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday Evening Quick-Hitters: Reactions from Week 8 in the NFL
Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/30/2011 @ 7:40 pm)
Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…
DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…
St. Louis Rams Steven Jackson looks downfield after making a reception in the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis on October 31, 2010. St. Louis won the game 20-10. UPI/Bill Greenblatt
- “If only the Rams could now somehow beat the Saints on Sunday, this would be the greatest sports weekend EVER,” uttered the random St. Louis fan on Friday night after the Cardinals defeated the Rangers in Game 7 of the World Series. How do the previously winless Rams defeat a team in the Saints that just racked up 62 points on the Colts? Well, that’s pretty easy. When you can’t stop Steven Jackson even though you know he’s going to get the ball every down, you lose two turnovers over on your side of the field, and you don’t protect your quarterback, you’re going to lose to most opponents regardless of whether or not they have any wins. The Rams won this game because of Jackson and their defense, which sacked Drew Brees six times and returned one of his passes for a game-clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter. Chris Long absolutely abused Charles Brown, who should have been given more help because he clearly needed it. The Rams clearly haven’t checked out and they’ll continue to fight every Sunday. That was apparent for anyone who saw Jackson flip out on his offensive line late in the second half following yet another false start penalty. What a sweet first win this was for a city that is on cloud nine right now.
- It’s not really shocking that the 2-6 Panthers lost another game. But considering whom they were playing and given that they were 3.5-point home favorites, it was a little surprising to see Carolina go down in flames to Minnesota on Sunday. Christian Ponder’s 102.7 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt were both season-highs for the Vikings, who apparently just should have started the kid from Week 1 and bypassed acquiring Donovan McNabb altogether. Ponder threw for 236 yards and a touchdown on 18-of-28 passing while earning his first career win thanks in large part to Olindo Mare’s inability to hit a 31-yard chip shot. The miss, which came with under a minute left to play, cost the Panthers an opportunity to force overtime. Good thing Carolina GM Marty Hurney spent so much money on Mare this offseason. Dude was totally worth it.
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Charlie Whitehurst, Chris Johnson, Chris Long, Christian Ponder, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Colt McCoy, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Javon Ringer, Joe Flacco, John Beck, Kevin Kolb, Matthew Stafford, Miami Dolphins, Mike Shanahan, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL scores, NFL Week 8, NFL Week 8 scores, Olindo Mare, Pete Carroll, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ray Rice, Ryan Fitzpatrick, San Francisco 49ers, Steven Jackson, Tarvaris Jackson, Tennessee Titans, Tim Tebow, Tom Brady, Tony Sparano, Washington Redskins
2011 NFL Week 8 Odds & Point Spreads
Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/26/2011 @ 10:28 am)
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger talks with Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin following a touchdown in the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on September, 18 2011. UPI/Archie Carpenter
Four spreads of note:
Patriots –3 @ Steelers, 4:15PM ET
Even though both teams have five wins on the year, I think this line is set right. The public is a huge supporter of the Patriots and the Steelers have played inconsistent football all season. That said, New England’s defense can be had through the air and Pittsburgh’s passing game is among the top 5 in the league. If Ben Roethlisberger can protect the football and connect on a couple of big plays, there’s absolutely no reason to believe Pittsburgh can’t win this game outright – especially at home.
Cowboys +3.5 @ Eagles, 8:20PM ET
It’ll be interesting to see where this line winds up at kickoff. After weeks of being crushed by Philadelphia’s poor play, people started to hop off the Eagles bandwagon. But maybe Philly’s week off has made folks change their perspective on Andy Reid’s squad. That said, Dallas is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games against Philadelphia and 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games versus the Eagles. Philly’s run defense is brutal so if the ‘Boys can get DeMarco Murray going again, they may pick up a huge divisional win on Sunday night.
Lions –3 @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
Matthew Stafford is presumably questionable for this game with an ankle injury but the Lions are 3-point favorites. That’s interesting considering the Broncos are at home and have old Uncle Mo on their side. Despite his poor play for 56 minutes last week, Tim Tebow has breathed new life into the Broncos and considering Detroit has to travel cross-country, has no running game, and can’t stop the run, I’m a little surprised to see them favored by a field goal. Maybe oddsmakers feel as though they have one more week before the public starts to jump off Detroit’s bandwagon.
Bengals –3 @ Seahawks, 4:15PM ET
This isn’t a very attractive game from a fan’s standpoint, but it’s an intriguing matchup betting-wise. The Bengals are 4-2 but they’re about to travel cross-country to a hostile environment with a rookie quarterback. I know Andy Dalton has played fairly well this season but the Seahawks are always a different animal when they’re in their home digs. Just knowing what we do about the Hawks and how they play at home, I would take the points here (even with Cincinnati coming off a bye).
2011 NFL Week 8 Point Spreads & Totals:
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Fade Material: NFL Week 7 Predictions
Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/23/2011 @ 8:00 am)
Fans of Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Tim Tebow hold up a sign during their NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Denver November 14, 2010. REUTERS/Rick Wilking (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
While my college picks continue to do well, a .500 record for my NFL predictions seems to be out of the question. After hitting the 49ers and Packers in the early games, the Saints were dropkicked by the Bucs and the Vikings…oh, the Vikings.
Following my 2-2 effort in Week 6, that puts my season record at 10-14 on the year.
Broncos @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET
I was one of the many who chastised the Broncos for trading back into the first round to take Tim Tebow in 2010. But now that it has become almost cliché to bag on Tebow’s abilities as a passer, I’m flat out rooting for him now. RELEASE THE TEBOW! From a performance standpoint, you can’t get much worse than the Miami defense. Their pass rush isn’t that bad but what’s the difference? They can’t stop the pass or run so teams can still pretty much do whatever they want against the Dolphins. Tebow will probably throw for 87 yards but give me two I say TWO touchdowns in a Denver victory today.
THE PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +1
Steelers @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Here’s the way I’m viewing this game. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite but let’s toss out the spread for a second. I ask myself, ‘Do I think the Steelers will win?’ The answer is yes. And if I believe they’re going to win, then they’re probably going to beat a bad Arizona team (which has proven it can’t finish games) by more than a field goal, right? Again, the answer is yes. (At least in my eyes.) The Steelers have been models of inconsistency thus far, but if you follow that same model then they should roll today. After the Ravens hammered them 35-7 in Week 1, the Steelers covered as 14-point favorites the following week against the Seahawks. After they lost to the Texans in Week 4, they covered easily as a 3-point favorite against the Titans in Week 5. And after they barely squeaked by the Jaguars last Sunday, I expect them to cover against Arizona. It’s science.
THE PICK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS –3.5
Chiefs @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
Every time I’m utterly confused by a point spread it usually winds up burning me in the end. The Raiders opened as 3-point point home favorites against the Chiefs when it was presumed that Kyle Boller was going to be Oakland’s starter. That makes sense. The Raiders are at home, they’re the better team and the old rule is that home field advantage is worth three points. Thus, Oakland –3. But after they acquired Carson Palmer on Tuesday and it was announced that he was playing, the line climbed a full point to 4.5. Then the damn thing jumped up to 5.5 as the public presumably hammered the Palmer-led Raiders. So what you’re telling me is that Palmer is worth a full 1.5 points? Are you kidding me? I know this isn’t the same the Chiefs team that won the AFC West last year but they are 2-0 in their last two games and 3-2 against the spread this year. They’re also coming off a bye and playing an opponent they’re incredibly familiar with (sans Palmer, that is). Plus, and this is the biggest reason why I can’t understand the line, Palmer hasn’t played in a live game since January 2. Now, after reporting on Friday that Palmer might not start, the line is back down to 3.5. Either way, give me the points. I don’t trust either Palmer nor Boller.
THE PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3.5
Packers @ Vikings, 4:15PM ET
The Packers haven’t played a full game in a couple of weeks, as they struggled in the first-half against the Falcons in Week 5 and completely took their foot off the gas in the second-half last Sunday against the Rams. That scares me, although not as much as what Aaron Rodgers is going to do in a dome against Minnesota’s brutal secondary. Even if rookie Christian Ponder plays well in his first career start, he isn’t going to keep pace with Rodgers and the Packers. I’ll probably get burned by this same Viking team that I predicted would upset Chicago last Sunday but just like the Chiefs-Raiders game, I’m not going to over-think this one. (I also love that the spread has stayed below the key number of 10.)
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –9
Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.
Posted in: NFL
Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, nfl free picks, NFL predictions, NFL Week 7, nfl week 7 free picks, nfl week 7 predictions, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tim Tebow
2011 NFL Week 7 Point Spreads
Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/19/2011 @ 2:01 pm)
Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner (#33) runs past Carolina Panthers linebacker James Anderson (#50) in the second half of an NFL football game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia on October 16, 2011. The Falcons defeated the Panthers 31-17. UPI Photo/Erik S. Lesser
Four spreads of note:
Falcons +3.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET Sunday
Apparently the Falcons showed enough last week in their win over the Panthers to make people believe they’re starting to turn things around. Either that or folks are slowly starting to climb off the Lions bandwagon. The spread for this game opened at Detroit –4.5 and within a day it was down to 3.5. Considering Atlanta was viewed as a potential Super Bowl team this season, the Falcons look like a value getting over a field goal. With Julio Jones iffy to return from a hamstring injury, we could see a lot of Michael Turner again this Sunday, especially considering Detroit has had its issues with stopping the run. The Falcons relied heavily on Turner last week against Carolina, as he rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Personally, I think the total is the most attractive play in this game. Forty-seven points seems way to high for two teams that have struggled at times offensively.
Bears -1 @ Bucs, 1:00PM ET Sunday
The Bucs beat the Saints last week at home and they’re now a 1-point underdog against a Chicago team that hasn’t won back-to-back games all season? I guess that’s not too surprising seeing as how ugly the Bucs have looked at times, but it’s not like the Bears have performed any better away from Solider Field (0-2 with two non-covers at New Orleans and Detroit). There’s value here somewhere but it’s hard to figure out which teams will show up this Sunday, especially seeing as how the game is being played in London. Both of these squads have had rather uneven performances from week-to-week this season.
Steelers –3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
The spread in this game seems awfully low to me, even when you account for home field advantage. That’s probably because the Steelers have looked great one week (see Titans), only to come out the next week and barely beat an inferior opponent (see Jaguars). If the Cardinals have any chance of getting back into the NFC West race, they need to win on Sunday. The problem is that Kevin Kolb hasn’t been the quarterback Arizona thought it was getting when it traded for him this offseason. The Cards have been in every game this year except their disastrous Week 5 showing in Minnesota, but Kolb just hasn’t gotten it done in the fourth quarter.
Chiefs +4 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET, Sunday
It’s funny, the Raiders opened as a 3-point favorite with Kyle Boller under center and as soon as they announced that Carson Palmer would start, the spread climbed to 4 points. So Palmer, who hasn’t taken a snap in a live game since January, is worth a full point in a divisional game? I know he’s familiar with the offense thanks to the time he spent with Hue Jackson in Cincinnati but so much for easing the guy in. That speaks volumes towards Oakland’s confidence in Boller. It’ll be interesting to see how this game plays out come Sunday.
2011 NFL Week 8 Point Spreads & Totals:
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Atlanta Falcons, Carson Palmer Raiders, chicago bearst, Detroit Lions, Michael Turner, nfl betting lines, nfl betting odds, NFL odds, nfl point spreads, NFL Week 7, nfl week 7 odds, nfl week 7 point spreads, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday Evening Quick-Hitters: Reactions from Week 5 in the NFL
Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/09/2011 @ 4:44 pm)
Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…
DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…
New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (C) walks off the field with teammates after throwing an interception that was run into the end zone for a touchdown by the Seattle Seahawks in the fourth quarter during their NFL football game in East Rutherford, New Jersey, October 9, 2011. REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.
- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.
- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Al Davis, Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger, benjarvis green-ellis, Buffalo Bills, Christian Ponder, Eli Manning, Frank Gore, Houston Texans, Juan Castillo, Kansas City Chiefs., Mark Sanchez, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Tarvaris Jackson, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, victor cruz
2011 NFL Week 5 Primer
Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/06/2011 @ 12:39 pm)
New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick encourages his team against the Oakland Raiders at the Coliseum in Oakland, California on October 2, 2011. The Patriots defeated the Raiders 31-19. UPI/Terry Schmitt
Titans @ Steelers, 1:00PM ET
Want to know how dire the Steelers’ situation is along their offensive line? They just signed a guy (Max Starks) whom they released in preseason. Ben Roethlisberger’s bruised foot was in a walking boot as he watched practice on Wednesday and the Titans have a couple of linemen in Karl Klug and Derrick Morgan that can get after the passer. Don’t be shocked if we see an upset in Pittsburgh this Sunday.
Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
Michael Vick says that the “Dream Team” moniker is now dead in Philadelphia and that the Eagles no longer want to be called that. Seeing as how they’re 1-3 and taking on a Buffalo team that has been unbeatable at home this year, I don’t think anyone will have a problem obliging Mikey’s request.
Saints @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
Don’t be surprised if Cam Newton has another big day passing this week. The Panthers figure to be trailing in this one and the Saints have struggled defensively this year. Will Smith and Sedrick Ellis are about the only linemen who have helped generate a pass rush, while guys like Roman Harper have struggled in coverage. As expected, all three linebackers have had their issues as well. Jonathan Casillas has two sacks and four QB pressures, but he has struggled in coverage while Jonathan Vilma has been suspect against the run. There’s certainly holes in New Orleans’ defense that Newton can take advantage of.
Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
Assuming the Giants win this week, who would have thought that their only loss this season would be against the Redskins in Week 1 and not at Philadelphia in Week 3? Give Tom Coughlin’s squad credit. They could have easily lost last Sunday in Arizona and looked like they would with about five minutes left to play. But they persevered and now have what should be an easy win this Sunday. Tarvaris Jackson played well against Atlanta’s soft zone last weekend but the Seahawks are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. New York should roll.
Bengals @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
Andy Dalton has certainly had his ups and downs through the first quarter of the season, but the Bengals have to be pleased with the way he’s battled. With the Bills up 17-3 last Sunday, Dalton and Cincinnati could have shut it down in the second half, especially considering how inept the offense looked versus the 49ers the week before. But they picked up a huge win and now go on the road to face a Jaguars team that has struggled with rookie Blaine Gabbert under center. It’s pretty remarkable to think that he Bengals could be 3-2 after this week when you consider how messy their offseason was.
Cardinals @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
Is Leslie Frazier starting to warm up to the idea of starting Christian Ponder? Here was Frazier’s comments on the rookie this Wednesday: “He’s working hard in practice, doing the same thing in meetings. We feel like he’s progressing well and we’re optimistic, that, when his time comes, he’ll be ready to go.” A couple of more brutal showings by Donovan McNabb and Ponder’s time might be coming soon.
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, Ben Roethlisberger, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Michael Vick, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL Week 5, NFL Week 5 Preview, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rex Ryan
2011 NFL Week 3 Primer
Posted by Anthony Stalter (09/22/2011 @ 1:38 pm)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick (7) leaves the field after running into one of his teammates in the second half during their NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta, Georgia, September 18, 2011. REUTERS/Tami Chappell (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
Giants @ Eagles, 1:00PM ET
You have to love that after all of the media reports dedicated to how Michael Vick is this mature, changed person that when walking to the locker room following his injury against the Falcons on Sunday night, he points to the scoreboard in response to heckling fans. He’s changed all right. Now instead of using his middle finger to diss Falcon fans, he uses his index. Get well soon, Mike.
Patriots @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
I’m sure the sentiment for most people heading into this game is that the Bills will “come crashing down to earth” after the Patriots get done with them. But I have a different take: I think this game is going to be fun as hell. Buffalo showed in the first two weeks that it has more than enough offensive weapons to be dangerous and obviously New England can score. This could be a 52-52 game about midway through the fourth quarter.
Texans @ Saints, 1:00PM ET
Sean Payton hasn’t quite mastered how to best utilize Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas in the same backfield, but once he does the Saints could revert back to their ’09 form when they blew teams out on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, Arian Foster once again looks doubtful to play and fantasy owners that drafted him with their top pick are starting to realize that yes, his hamstring is going to be a major problem early on.
Jaguars @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
It’ll be the Rookie Quarterback Bowl in Carolina this Sunday when Blaine Gabbert makes his first professional start against Cam Newton, who has already thrown for over 800 yards in his first two games. Maybe if he stops throwing the ball to the other team he’ll pick up a win to go along with all of those fancy yards.
49ers @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
Cincinnati receiver Jerome Simpson and offensive tackle Anthony Collins were detained by police late Wednesday when authorities investigated a package filled with 2.5 pounds of marijuana delivered to Simpson’s house while both players were present. Neither player was arrested but it’s great to see that the Bengals are already in mid-season form when it comes to obeying the law.
Dolphins @ Browns, 1:00PM ET
Just what every head coach on the hot seat needs: a three-game road trip following an 0-2 start. In three weeks if the Dolphins are 0-5, you can bet that Tony Sparano won’t be on the sidelines when Miami hosts its next home game (vs. Denver on October 23). And no, I mean literally bet on Sparano being canned: theSpread has his odds of being let go listed at 3/1.
Lions @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
Let’s sum up Donovan McNabb’s career. Booed on draft day. Has appeared in 967 playoff games and one Super Bowl but has no ring. Had to put up with T.O. and a slew of media members and fellow athletes bashing him at every turn. Benched for Rex Grossman… possibly will be benched for Christian Ponder. I feel sorry for McNabb and I don’t mean that in a condescending way. I actually feel bad for the guy. Ah, well: Lions 56, Vikings 3.
Broncos @ Titans, 1:00PM ET
If there’s one game I don’t care if I see a down of this weekend, this would be it. I apologize to Denver and Tennessee fans but this matchup is the epitome of boring. But hey, go get ‘em Kyle Orton and Matt Hasselbeck. You do your thing. I’ll be over here watching Giants-Eagles, Texans-Saints or hell, even Jaguars-Panthers. Just anything but Broncos-Titans on a nice fall Sunday afternoon.
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: Arian Foster, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, DeAngelo Hall, Green Bay Packers, Jay Cutler, Kerry Collins, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tony Romo
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