This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.

Click here to see #26 to #30.

#25: New Jersey Nets
The Nets only won 12 games last season, but there are reasons to be optimistic about this team. Brook Lopez is developing into an All-Star caliber center and Terrence Williams played well in the last two months of his rookie season. Devin Harris is still a dangerous guard, and he’ll be reunited with his former coach, Avery Johnson. Throw in a good power forward (Troy Murphy) to mentor the #3 overall pick (Derrick Favors) and there are some pieces in place in New Jersey. Of course, Nets fans want to see the franchise swing a deal for Carmelo Anthony, but that plan looks to be on hold (or dead?) for now. He’d be a great fit at small forward, though after missing out on LeBron, the Nets did fork out $35 million at the position by signing Travis Outlaw this summer. That contract could come back to bite them, but for now the team has plenty of financial flexibility and a projected payroll of only $38 million heading into next season. The Nets would rather trade and extend Melo this season because they know the risk inherent anytime a player hits free agency.

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I can see being optimistic about a 20-year-old point guard who averaged 13-4-6 and shot 50% from the field and 46% from 3PT in 17 games in March, but new head coach Doug Collins might be going a little overboard here…

“I honestly believe that next year, you’re going to be talking about him being one of the top five point guards in the NBA. I think you’re going to speak about him in the same breath as Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Jrue.”

Good grief, Doug. Whatever happened to keeping your players hungry for praise?

For what it’s worth, Andre Iguodala supported Collins’ praise…

At Monday’s media day, Andre Iguodala admitted that he raved about Holiday, not even four months past his 20th birthday, to Collins and Sixers owner Ed Snider back in June. And he’s still doing it today.

“I said he’ll be one of the top point guards in the league,” Iguodala said. “In his prime, he’ll be a top five point guard and he might go down as one of the greatest point guards, defensively. He’s got kind of a Gary Payton presence, where he can pressure a guy full-court.”

Keep in mind that Iggy said “in his prime” that Holiday would be a top five point guard. That’s more reasonable than Collins’ assertion that it’s going to happen this season.

Either way, fantasy owners should take note — the Sixers are really high on this kid.

Per ESPN…

The Philadelphia 76ers have agreed to swap Samuel Dalembert to the Sacramento Kings for Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes, two league sources told ESPN.com.

…the real ramifications may come during the draft. The Sixers have been deciding between Evan Turner and Derrick Favors with the No. 2 pick. While Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski is a Turner fan, new coach Doug Collins is high on Favors. With Dalembert gone and Nocioni in, it could push them in the direction of Favors.

For the Kings, this could also change their draft equation. The team has been looking at drafting DeMarcus Cousins and Greg Monroe, both centers. With this deal, it could allow them to address another need at the three. The Kings have been high on both Al-Farouq Aminu and Gordon Hayward.

This could alter the draft plans of these two teams, but it shouldn’t. The players involved in the trade — Dalembert, Nocioni, Hawes — are all fringe starters at best, so teams shouldn’t be making draft plans around their arrivals or departures. For example, now that Dalembert is no longer in Philly, it’s not a reason to draft Derrick Favors over Evan Turner. If the Sixers want to go with Favors, they should be because they think he’ll ultimately be the best player in the long run, not because they now have a hole to fill.

The same goes for the Kings. Dalembert is a so-so center in the final year of his contract. Sacramento shouldn’t pass on DeMarcus Cousins because they now have Dalembert on the roster. That wouldn’t make any sense since Dalembert is not an impact player and may not even be around to start the 2011-12 season.

This move will give the Kings an additional $10.7 M in cap space next summer, or approximately $36 million total (minus the salary of their 2010 draft pick). So the Kings will be players again in 2011 free agency assuming they don’t spend all of their cap space over the next month.

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Last year, John Hollinger’s Draft Rater really liked Ty Lawson and Tyreke Evans, and that turned out well. The year before, it liked Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose, who wasn’t even listed as the top point guard in the draft. It also liked Kevin Love (score) and thought Anthony Randolph was way overrated (fail).

In the past, Hollinger’s system has been pretty accurate, all things considered.

The Draft Rater has yet to miss a lottery pick who became an All-Star in its top 12 collegians list — although that string may end in another year or two thanks to a miserable 2008 performance (Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez both were overlooked that year). And if it’s blown a couple of picks, look at the actual draft and you’ll find even more mistakes by the pro teams themselves.

On the other hand, the Draft Rater has picked out five All-Stars that the pros missed among the first 12 collegians — Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, Josh Howard, and David West. No misses, five additions. I like that ratio.

It’s a good read, but to sum up, the Rater thinks DeMarcus Cousins is the top player in the draft, with Evan Turner and John Wall reasonably close behind. Questions about Cousins’ coachability will likely hinder his draft stock, but I think he’s going to be a great player. You don’t rebound like he does and not love the game. He just needs to get into a good, stable situation with a solid coach and grow up a little bit.

It’s going to be interesting to watch how he progresses through the draft process. Do we hear stories about how he’s texting his friends during interviews with NBA teams? Does he dog it in certain workouts? If he acts like a pro over the next month, it could mean he’s picked #2 or #3 instead of #5 or #6.

The Rater also predicts some duds; Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson, Ekpe Udoh, Ed Davis and Hassan Whiteside are the big names on that list.

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After years — literally years — of flirting with a return to the NBA, Doug Collins is reportedly set to become the 76ers next head coach. Per Philly.com…

The 76ers have agreed to terms with Doug Collins, ending their search for a new head coach, an NBA source said Thursday night.

An announcement is expected Friday. Collins could be formally introduced by the team as early as Monday.

Another source confirmed that the two parties had agreed to a four-year deal, although the contract’s exact value was not known.

Collins sure gets a lot of attention every offseason given his coaching record:

Collins, currently working as an analyst with TNT, previously coached the Chicago Bulls (1986-89), Detroit Pistons (1995-98), and Washington Wizards (2001-03). His career coaching record is 332-287.

He has had winning seasons in four of eight seasons, and coached two teams to 50+ wins. He has never coached in the NBA Finals.

His teams did show improvement in Chicago and Detroit. He has stayed relevant by becoming one of TNT’s top color commentators.

Stephen A. Smith thinks that the signing is a coup for the franchise:

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Sixers beat writer Bob Ford thinks so, assuming they don’t trade Andre Iguodala:

If you believe the mock drafts, Ohio State swingman Evan Turner is going to fall to the Sixers after the Wizards take Kentucky’s John Wall. That’s fine, except the Sixers already have Evan Turner, and his name is Andre Iguodala.

If Stefanski can trade Iguodala and the four years and $56 million he has coming to him, then Turner is fine. If not, the Sixers would be better off dropping down to get Georgia Tech’s 6-foot-10 Derrick Favors and bump Brand out of the low post.

This isn’t a team that will be fixed by one player, anyway. It took years to get into this mess, and it will take years to get out.

This is a clear case of NBA-ready versus potential. Evan Turner is ready to contribute immediately, but the Sixers don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, and in order to make way, they would have to trade away their best player. Andre Iguodala may be a bit overpaid, but he does a lot of different things, and is excellent on the defensive end of the court.

Derrick Favors is 6’10″ and doesn’t turn 19 until mid-July. (Turner turns 22 in October, so he’s essentially two years older.) This is what DraftExpress has to say about Favors:

He’s incredibly gifted from a physical standpoint, showing a combination of length and athleticism that is simply unparalleled at the college level. He runs the floor like a deer, is outrageously explosive around the rim, and is a fantastic target for entry-passes thanks to his terrific hands and the amazing extension he gets around the basket.

The more wide open style of the NBA game should benefit him in this regard, both in transition (where he truly excels) and as a pick and roll finisher in the half-court—especially with more talented shot-creating guards alongside him.

Offensively, Favors is fairly limited as a shot-creator in the half-court, showing raw footwork and little in the ways of a go-to move, struggling to finish with his left hand and being fairly turnover prone when forced to put the ball on the floor.

So he’s extremely athletic and struggles on the block because he’s raw. Sounds a little like Tyrus Thomas, but Favors doesn’t seem to have the attitude issues that plagued Thomas, at least while he was in Chicago.

Favors struggled early in the season, largely due to the makeup of the Georgia Tech team, but he finished strong, averaging 16-9 over the last 11 games. Let’s not forget that Gani Lawal brought many of the same things to the table. (In other words, Favors could have helped himself by picking a different school to play for.)

Anyway, looking ahead, as Favors develops on the block, he and current Sixer Marreese Speights could make a formidable high-low duo. Elton Brand’s best days are clearly behind him and Samuel Dalembert is entering the final year of his contract. The Sixers could build around Favors, Jrue Holiday and Speights.

In the end, the Sixers need to draft the player they think has the best chance to be a star or superstar in four or five years, because that’s how long it’s going to take to rebuild this team into a serious contender.

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The Washington Wizards were the big winners tonight, as they bucked the odds and won the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery. The Wizards had a 10.3% chance of winning the top pick and leapfrogged four teams for the right to draft John Wall.

And Wall will very likely be their pick. This is the perfect opportunity for the franchise to truly start over after the mess that Gilbert Arenas made last season. Look for the Wizards to try to trade Arenas this summer, though it will be tough to find a taker.

The Wizards were represented by Irene Pollin, the widow of the Wizards former owner Abe Pollin, who died late last year.

The Sixers also leapfrogged four teams to win the #2 overall pick. I’d expect Evan Turner would be the pick there, which means that Andre Iguodala could be available this summer. The Sixers will also take a long look at Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins as talented big men don’t come along that often.

The big loser? I’d have to go with the Nets and new owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who looked like his head was about to explode when he learned that his team was going to pick #3. I’d expect New Jersey to take whomever is available between Turner and Favors to play alongside Brook Lopez and Devin Harris.

See the entire lottery results here.

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The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight, and as always, there is a lot riding on a few ping pong balls. Here is a list of the lottery teams (with their chances of winning the top pick in parenthesis) along with some discussion of their possible strategy if they do win the #1 pick.

ALMOST A SURE THING

Nets (25%)
The Wall-to-New Jersey/Brooklyn rumors have been strong all season, thanks to the Nets’ woeful record and Devin Harris’s struggles. Harris is now viewed as expendable, which means Wall would be a Net if the balls bounce their way tonight.

Wizards (10.3%)
Winning the right to draft Wall would allow the Wizards to cut ties with Gilbert Arenas and the franchise’s gun-toting past. It might also convince a free agent or two to sign for the chance to play with Wall.

76ers (5.3%)
Jrue Holiday is nice, but he’s not going to dissuade the Sixers from drafting a franchise-savior like Wall.

Pistons (5.2%)
See 76ers above but substitute “Rodney Stuckey” for “Jrue Holiday.” That is all.

Pacers (1.1%)
Indiana arguably needs a point guard more than any other team in the lottery, but with just a 1.1% chance of winning, they’re hoping against hope.

Grizzlies (0.7%)
Memphis would be buzzing with the arrival of Wall, who would seemingly be a great fit with O.J. Mayo, a re-signed Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Memphis would likely make the playoffs next season.

Raptors (0.6%)
The chances are very slim, but winning the right to draft Wall would offset the likely loss of Chris Bosh this summer. Neither Jarrett Jack nor Jose Calderon would be enough to convince the Raptors to draft Evan Turner.

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Contrary to previous reports from Adrian Wojnarowski and Peter Vescey, Larry Brown says he’s staying in Charlotte.

“We’re getting ready for the playoffs,” Brown said. “I love my team. I love coaching. I’m 70 years old. I want to coach for Michael Jordan. That’s where I’m at. I’m happy here.

“It’s no fun being away from my family and [wife] Shelly. That’s always going to be the case. But I love what I’m doing.”

What else is he going to say?

I’m sorry, but I am not going to buy Brown’s story unless he opens next season as the head coach of the Charlotte Bobcats. This guy doesn’t stay in one place for too long. In fact, the only place he has stayed for more than four seasons is Philadelphia.

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The New York Post is reporting that Larry Brown has received permission from Bobcats owner Michael Jordan to take over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Coincidentally squared, Next Town Brown, I’m informed, has received approval from Bobcats owner Michael Jordan to return home, home on the range — Philadelphia — where his wife, school-age children and the antelopes still play, to re-take control of the 76ers from top to bottom.

Larry Brown in a dual coach/GM role? This ought to be good.

I think it’s safe to say that the Sixers are a mess. They won’t have any significant cap room until the summer of 2011, and the Elton Brand signing hasn’t exactly worked out.

Still, there is some talent here — Jrue Holiday, Marreese Speights and Thaddeus Young are nice prospects and Andre Iguodala is a good all-around player. Brown has a history of raising the level of bad franchises, but he doesn’t have a long-term outlook and typically burns out pretty quickly. How does that work when he’s the general manager?

Like I said, this ought to be interesting.

Update: Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that the Clippers are another possibility.

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