Based on some of the comments coming out of Indianapolis these days, it would appear as though Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts is coming to an end.

Such as life. Times change, people separate, memories fade. Why should sports be any different?

According to ESPN NFL Business Analyst Andrew Brandt, it would cost the Colts $50.5 million to keep Manning and Andrew Luck on the same roster in 2012. Manning’s option is $28 million in addition to a $7.4 million salary while the No. 1 overall pick will receive approximately $15.1 million in bonus plus salary in 2012. Thus, it doesn’t make sense financially for the Colts to pay Manning and draft Luck while trying to fill holes all over a depleted roster.

It doesn’t make sense from a risk/reward standpoint either. Manning is 35 and is still trying to recover from neck surgery that he had last May. I’m not a doctor but when you listen to other athletes talk about the same nerve damage that Manning has, it’s feasible that he could have complications the rest of his career. That’s why there’s still plenty of speculation about whether or not he’ll ever play again.

I’m not trying to be cold because I’m very aware of what Manning has meant to the Colts franchise over these past 14 seasons. But former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi said it best when he stated that he would rather be accused of getting rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late. This is a business decision and the right business decision for the Colts is to part ways with Manning and draft their future signal caller while they have that chance. There are teams like the Browns, Dolphins, Bills and Redskins who continuously fail to address their quarterback situation and the Colts have a golden opportunity to replace one franchise signal caller with another in just one fell swoop. Cold? Probably. But smart? Definitely.

Let’s not overlook the fact that this could be a good thing for Manning as well. During John Elway’s final years he essentially took a backseat to Terrell Davis because the Broncos became Davis’ team. He won two Super Bowls handing the ball off to Davis and throwing when he had to, but Manning doesn’t have that same fortune. The Colts proved last year that they’re a serious rebuilding project. At this point in his career, Manning shouldn’t be at the helm of a rebuilding team: he should be trying to take one more shot at winning a Super Bowl just like Elway did. (Assuming of course that Manning is healthy enough to ever pick up a football again.)

In a perfect world the Colts would already have Manning’s replacement on their roster. But they don’t, and now this is the situation that they find themselves in. Separations are never easy and if the Colts do decide to move on from Manning, it will be a hard decision. But it doesn’t have to be difficult.

Times change, people separate, memories fade. That’s just life.

It now seems obvious that the Colts will be parting ways with Peyton Manning. Anything can happen at this point, but Peyton’s recent interview made it pretty clear that he wasn’t a part of the new direction in Indianapolis. You can’t blame them, as they will have Andrew Luck and they would need to pay Peyton a king’s ransom to stick around. The team needs to be rebuilt, and keeping Peyton just delays the process.

The NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora makes a pretty good case that Arizona and Seattle are the two most likely spots.

While the rest of the NFL world is seemingly transfixed on whether or not the Colts would select Stanford’s Andrew Luck if they received the No. 1 overall pick next April, their injured franchise quarterback still hopes to play this season.

Peyton Manning told reporters on Thursday that he hopes to return to practice this year and still holds out hope of playing if doctors deem him clear to play. He underwent a second surgery on his neck on September 8 and even though he hasn’t played a snap, the Colts have yet to place him on injured reserve.

Of course, the Colts face a much bigger issue than whether or not to free up a roster spot by placing Manning on I.R. They must decide whether to opt out of Manning’s five-year contract or pay him a $28 million bonus to keep him on the 53-man roster. Some in Indianapolis who follow the team closely believe that Manning’s chances of playing again are less than 50-percent.

One of those followers is long-time beat writer Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianapolis Star, who says he’s “maybe even 30-70” on whether or not Manning takes another snap. Considering how close Wilson has been to the situation over the years, it’s rather eye opening to see the beat writer spit out those odds.

For now, it’s still a waiting game. Manning hopes he’ll return next season but surely the Colts would trade one down year for three-to-five more years of Peyton under center. But whether he’ll be able to play ever again is the question.

The Houston Texans confirmed that Mario Williams will be placed on IR and will be out for the rest of the season. Williams injured his pectoral muscle, with many speculating that he suffered a tear. Williams has been a dominant pass rusher for the Texans throughout his career and this year he had five sacks. Williams played defensive end in the 4-3 alignment, but this season he made the move to outside linebacker in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense. The transition had been going well until the injury.

Coach Gary Kubiak reacted to the news on the team’s official website:

I feel so bad for Mario because man, he’s been such a heck of a player, and what we’re doing to me is really going to blossom his career from now on. I think he had really taken to the position he’s playing. He was improving every day in practice, improving in every game and really enjoying – I think I’ve never seen him so upbeat about what was going on – and to lose him on a freak play, it doesn’t look like much at all.

The Texans can’t seem to catch a break. The team was poised for a breakout season with the Colts floundering in Peyton Manning’s absence, and now they lose their best player on defense.

Hey, I’m guilty of it. We’re all guilty of it. We see a player get seriously injured and one of the first statements out of someone’s mouth is, “This may be career-threatening.”

The latest example of this is Peyton Manning. He recently had his second neck surgery in less than five months and at least one clown in the media wrote last week about how the Colts may wind up with Andrew Luck in next year’s draft. We live in a world where present news is old news and everyone has a blog nowadays so getting a jump on a story often takes precedence. But the media (and fans too, because they’re just as guilty even though the media provides a nice patsy for them) could learn a thing or two about Manning’s situation from Tom Brady.

As I watched Brady carve up the Dolphins for 517 yards and four touchdowns on Monday night, I had to laugh thinking about Matt Cassel’s 2008 season. He was so good that year that some wondered if the Pats should trade Brady and go with the younger Cassel at quarterback.

The idea wasn’t that far-fetched either. At the time, there was no timetable set for Brady’s return after he had season-ending knee surgery earlier in the year. Nobody knew when he would return in ’09, or if he would return at all. Cassel was also set to become a free agent, which further complicated the situation. If the Pats traded him or allowed him to leave via free agency, they risked not having an experienced quarterback for 2009 if Brady couldn’t recover.

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- According to every NFL analyst in America, there was a better chance of Cam Newton putting his pants on backwards than resembling anything even close to a quarterback. But lo and behold the kid can play a little. He completed 24-of-37 passes for 422 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, setting a record for most passing yards in a NFL debut. He also rushed eight times for 18 yards and scored on the goal line in the Panthers’ 28-21 loss the Cardinals. Thanks to Newton, Steve Smith looked rejuvenated after spending a year in NFL hell last season. Obviously the former Auburn product isn’t going to throw for 400-plus yards every week but even his biggest critics have to be impressed with how he performed in his debut. And hey, the young man even put his pants on straight, too.

- The Steelers, the Falcons and the Chiefs: What are three teams who apparently forgot that the preseason was only four weeks long, Alex? Give credit where credit is due – the Ravens, Bears and Bills were dominate on Sunday. But it’s not like any of those teams used black magic to fool the Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs, who were absolutely shocked that they had to suit up today. Those three teams, who all won their divisions a year ago, mind you, managed to make flying to the moon look easier than playing football.

- Speaking of the Bills, this team isn’t a pushover any more. Forty-one points on the road? Good grief, man. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just good enough to be dangerous and they have some offensive weapons in Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Given how bad the offensive line looked in preseason, Chan Gailey has to be thrilled with his team’s performance. And the best part about the Bills today? They acted as if they expected that outcome. I dare say they were fun to watch.

- Not many people had the Bengals beating the Browns in Cleveland today, which is why they wind up in the “DIDN”T SEE THAT COMING” section. But I’m telling you, if Andy Dalton can play mistake free and just mange games in his first year, Cincinnati won’t be as bad as everyone expects.

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In 1997, David Robinson suffered a broken foot in preseason and wind up missing the entire regular season for the San Antonio Spurs, who were devastated by the injury. But Robinson’s misfortunate actually turned out to be a massive blessing in disguise for he and the Spurs.

San Antonio was so bad that season that they wound up having the No. 1 pick in the 1997 NBA Draft, allowing them to select Tim Duncan out of Wake Forest. Four championships, two MVP awards, and 13 All-Star selections later and Duncan is viewed as one of the greatest players to have ever donned a NBA uniform.

And none of it would have happened had Robinson not broke his foot that year, which is a little morbid when you think about it but hey, it worked out for everyone in the end. (Robinson won two titles playing alongside Duncan.)

If the Indianapolis Colts wind up having a wretched season due to Peyton Manning’s neck injury, they may find themselves in a somewhat similar situation. Granted, it’s too early to tell how long Manning will be sidelined after having his second neck surgery in less than four months. Maybe he’ll return halfway through the season and lead the Colts to the playoffs once again. Or maybe he’ll be out all season and will return next year at full strength.

Or maybe he’ll never play again.

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After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

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Oddsmakers have released the point spreads for Week 1 in the NFL. Along with a complete list of odds, here are a couple of games that jump out at me as we head into the opening week in the NFL.

Saints @ Packers, 8:30PM ET, Thursday
The action gets kicked off this season with a matchup between the 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers and the 2009 Super Bowl champion Saints. I envision a rebound year for Drew Brees and the Saints, who added solid depth on both sides of the ball this offseason and drafted a running back in Mark Ingram that could help restore balance to Sean Payton’s offense. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a Super Bowl win and will have tight end Jermichael Finley and running back Ryan Grant back from injury. Aaron Rodgers is an absolute stud and should be talked about among the league’s elite. In terms of the odds, the total is set high for a reason but I see this game falling under. In four of the last five season openers the total has fallen under and even though both of these teams can both light up the scoreboard, I don’t think we’ll see either of the Saints or Packers’ best offensive efforts this Thursday. Don’t forget it was a short offseason in terms of season preparation.
ODDS: PACKERS –4 (47)

Colts @ Texans, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Personally, I think this is the Texans’ year. They went a long way to improve their horrendous defense by hiring Wade Phillips as coordinator and signing free agent corner Jonathan Joseph. Phillips has a knack for turning teams around quickly and I don’t think Houston will be an aberration. Peyton Manning will likely miss Week 1 and that means Kerry Collins will get the nod. If Manning is healthy the Colts are liable to go 12-4 but without him, they could just as easily fall to 4-12. The Texans usually start off the season on fire before fading in the second half. Maybe this year will be different. I see them getting off to a good start and without Manning, this one could be a blowout.
ODDS: TEXANS –9 (45.5)

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Rumors have been flying around Twitter that Peyton Manning would need more surgery, so the Indianapolis Colts have issued a statement about Manning’s recovery process. Bottom line is that he’ll likely miss the first game as he has suffered some complications and they will be holding him out of practice this week as they try to figure out what is slowing down his recovery.