Before their sweep of the Braves this week, I would have said that the National League Wild Card is a three-team race. But now that the Rockies are putting together a very Rockie-like charge, this is definitely now a four-horse competition in the NL.

Let’s break down the contenders and make a prediction.

(Side Note: I’m fully aware that the Phillies and Cardinals still have a great chance of catching the Braves and Reds in their respective divisions, but I’m going by the standings as of Thursday, August 26. In a couple of weeks, I’ll update this list so for now, let’s just call this Version 1.0.)

Philadelphia Phillies
Games Remaining: 36
Games Back: 0
What I Like About Their Chances: I like the Phillies because quite frankly, they’ve been here before. They know what it takes to play good baseball in the month of September and their roster is chockfull of veteran players. Even though they haven’t shown it of late, the Phils also still have the best lineup 1-8 of any of the four Wild Card contenders and a three-headed monster in Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt (who has been outstanding in the month of August) and Cole Hamels. This is, by far, the most talented team of the four listed…

What I Don’t Like: …that said, this club isn’t playing very good baseball right now. In their last seven games, they’ve won only two and they were just swept at home by the Astros. Also, despite all of their offensive firepower, they’ve managed to score just 16 runs in those seven outings. They also have six more games against the Braves, who they are just 5-7 against this season. This is a club that seemingly can’t put it all together this season and you just get the sense that something’s missing.

San Francisco Giants
Games Remaining: 34
Games Back: 0
What I Like About Their Chances: All of a sudden, the Giants have become an offensive juggernaut. In their last three games (all versus the Reds), they racked up 39 runs and 53 hits. Thus far, the acquisitions of Jose Guillen (to my surprise) and Cody Ross have paid off, and guys like Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez are starting to get hot at the dish. Believe it or not, it has been the pitching that has failed them over the last three weeks or so, but if Tim Lincecum can shake out of the funk he’s in then this will be a formidable team down the stretch.

What I Don’t Like: The recent offensive explosion could be a direct result of the warm weather that San Francisco has had. You might think that’s a lame statement, but the ball jumps off hitters’ bats at AT&T Park when it’s warm and deadens when it’s cooler (which is the normal climate in the “City by the Bay”). The weather is supposed to dip back down for the Giants’ series against the Diamondbacks this weekend, so we’ll find out soon if the 39 runs was just an anomaly. Of course, the Giants’ biggest concern at the moment is the seemingly season-long funk that their ace has been in. Since throwing a gem against the Dodgers on July 30, Lincecum has posted an 8.38 ERA in four straight losses and has surrendered 19 runs on 28 hits in just 19.1 innings of work. He has shown signs of getting back on track, but it’s safe to say he’s nowhere near the pitcher he was the last two years. If he doesn’t figure it out soon, the Giants’ chances of making the postseason reduce dramatically. Another reason to hate San Fran’s Wild Card hopes is its 2-9 record against the Padres – who they play six more times.

St. Louis Cardinals
Games Remaining: 38
Games Back: 1
What I Like About Their Chances: The Cards may have the easiest route to the postseason of any of these four contenders. Out of their 38 remaining games, 22 of them are against teams with losing records. And unlike the Phillies and Giants right now, their top three starters have been lights out recently. Chris Carpenter is 3-1 this month with a 2.60 ERA, Adam Wainwright has been even nastier while posting a 1.95 ERA and Jaime Garcia has amassed a 2.84 ERA this month. Aside from pitching, let’s not forget that this club also has the best pure hitter in baseball in Albert Pujols and ample protection around him in Matt Holliday and youngster Jon Jay. For August Busch’s sake, even Pedro Feliz is contributing at the dish right now.

What I Don’t Like: Twenty-two of their remaining 38 games may be against teams with losing records, but the Cards are a very pedestrian 23-21 against those clubs. While that’s still a winning record, keep in mind that we’re talking about teams like the Pirates, Astros, Nationals, Cubs and Brewers here. In the past two weeks, St. Louis has dropped series against the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates – in the middle of a pennant race, mind you. How does this happen with a starting rotation that features Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia?

Colorado Rockies
Games Remaining: 36
Games Back: 4
What I Like About Their Chances: This team has already proven that they can get crazy hot and at 41-20, they’re extremely tough to beat at home. Carlos Gonzalez has carried this team and as proof of their 12-10 victory over the Braves on Wednesday, the Rockies are seemingly never out of any game. Six of their final 11 series are at home so if they can pull off a couple of more sweeps like they did against Atlanta, Colorado could shock everyone and win this race down the stretch.

What I Don’t Like: Despite their success at home, this club has played like garbage on the road, posting a 25-40 record away from Coors Field this year. That doesn’t bode well for them considering they have tough road challenges coming up against the Giants, Padres and Cardinals coming up over the next month or so. Those three series could essentially make or break Colorado’s chances and considering they have the most ground to cover of any team listed here, that may be too much to overcome. They also have the worst collection of starting pitching of the Wild Card contenders and Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped two of his last three starts. (Although it’s worth noting that he still has a 2.57 ERA this month.)

Prediction:
It’s a toss up between the Cardinals and the Phillies for me. They both have more talent than the Giants and Rockies, although both are coming off terrible series against bad opponents. In the end, St. Louis’ schedule is favorable and if they don’t wind up winning the NL Central, I like them to secure the Wild Card. Again, they have the easiest road of any team listed above and if they can get their act together on the road, I think they head back to the postseason. Of course, if Tim Lincecum can get back to being Tim Lincecum and the Giants’ offense stays red-hot, the Giants are going to be extremely tough to beat in a three-game series from here on out.

Is that clear? To recap, I like the Cardinals, Phillies and Giants to potentially win the Wild Card………………and maybe even the Rockies.

Update: With their win today, the Dodgers are now only 5 games back in the Wild Card race as well, with a huge series coming up this weekend in Colorado. Hopefully L.A. sweeps the Rockies and thus, make me look like a fool for not including them in this piece.

In order to help get you ready for the MLB season, we’re doing division-by-division rankings with quick overviews on how each club could fair in 2010. Next to each team, you’ll also find a corresponding number written in parenthesis, which indicates where we believe that club falls in a league-wide power ranking. Be sure to check back throughout the next two weeks leading up to the season, as we will be updating our content daily. Enjoy.

All 2010 MLB Preview Content | AL East Preview | AL Central Preview | AL West Preview | NL East | NL Central | NL West

Next up is the NL Central.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday could help the Cardinals win this division sauced out of their minds on a nightly basis. That said, would anyone really be surprised if Carpenter’s arm falls off and the starting pitching (which is among the best in the league) suffers? It’s happened before, so if you answered “yes” to the proposed question then you sir or madam, have not been paying attention. Still, the addition of Brad Penny (who pitched well in the second half last year) will strengthen the club’s starting pitching and Kyle Lohse is a fine middle of the rotation guy. Pujols and Holliday will ignite the offense again, although Colby Rasmus might be the key to whether or not this team makes a serious World Series run. Skip Schumaker is a solid table setter, but how Rasmus fairs hitting in front of Pujols and Holliday could be the difference between the Cards winning the NL Central again and playing for a championship. David Freese better produce too or else the club will regret not acquiring a veteran third baseman in the offseason. All in all, the Cardinals are the best the NL Central has to offer and should make another postseason appearance this season. But how far they go beyond that depends on whether or not Carpenter and Wainwright can continue their magic and if Pujols and Holliday receive help from the rest of the lineup.

2. Chicago Cubs (13)
Some pundits expect the Reds to leapfrog the Cubs in the division this year, but I believe Chicago is more inclined to rebound than sink further into baseball misery (I say misery because no team wants to be outplayed by the Reds…no offense, Pittsburgh – keep your heads up). Keep in mind that this club is only two years removed from winning 97 games and the roster hasn’t seen that much turnover. Last year, the Cubs were hit extremely hard with injuries (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano), unexpected poor play (Geovany Soto), expected poor play (Kosuke Fukudome) and clubhouse-killing diseases (Milton Bradley). I’m not making excuses for the Cubs because they did play poorly, but they still have enough talent to win the NL Wild Card and maybe even challenge the Cardinals in the division. Assuming everyone stays healthy, Ramirez, Soriano and Derrek Lee give the Cubs plenty of power and the starting pitching (Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster) is solid when healthy. If Carlos Marmol ever figures out how to exploit his talent, the bullpen would be in good shape as well. That said, along with staying healthy, this club needs role players like Fukudome, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot and the newly acquired Marlon Byrd to produce. Chances are, a second place finish is the ceiling for the Cubs. But again, a Wild Card berth isn’t out of the question.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (17)
What happened to this team? It doesn’t seem that long ago that the Brewers had the right mix of players in place to make winning the NL Central a regular thing and then almost out of nowhere, they became non-factors. The biggest issue they had last year was their starting pitching, which was a disaster (5.37 ERA) outside of Yovani Gallardo (3.73). The club added Randy Wolf and Doug Davis over the offseason, which should help but Dave Bush (whose had a solid spring), Jeff Suppan (who could be released) and/or Manny Parra (the poster child for inconsistency) need to step up. The Brewers have the best 3-4 hitters in baseball in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but they sacrificed offense this offseason when they traded J.J. Hardy and Mike Cameron. Much like the starting pitching, role players like Cory Hart, Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks need to improve their production for Milwaukee to have a chance this season. It would also be nice if left-hander Mat Gamel could make a contribution this year, but he’s likely to start the season on the DL and after that, Triple-A. The bottom line is that the Brewers certainly have enough talent to be dangerous, but there are just too many question marks surrounding this club. The starting pitching isn’t reliable and Braun and Fielder can’t win every game on their own.

4. Cincinnati Reds (21)
Like the Reds this year, do you? Think they’ll be better than what everyone expects? Think they’ll finally snap that pesky nine-season losing streak? Look, I don’t fault you for thinking that way. Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo comprise a solid rotation (although who knows how long it will be before Volquez recovers from Tommy John surgery). This club also has a good bullpen, is one of the more athletic teams in baseball and headlined by Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the offense has a nice core as well. So what’s the problem? The problem is that the Reds never win. People like to harp on the Mets failing to live up to expectations or on the Pirates and Royals for being horrid every summer but what about the Reds? They haven’t won in nine years and unless Votto and Phillips turn in MVP-caliber seasons, this club is destined to fall short of 82 victories again. Plus, while he’s beloved and usually gets the most of out of his players, manager Dusty Baker is brutal when it comes to taking care of his pitcher’s arms. I can’t prove it, but I’m almost positive that his life mission is to overuse as many pitchers as he can before he hangs up his wristbands. (Consider this your official warning, Aroldis Chapman.) I want to believe in this club – I really do. But given their history, Volquez’s health and Baker’s incompetence, I just can’t see the Reds finishing higher than third or fourth in the division.

5. Houston Astros (26)
I’d love to sit down with Houston’s front office and pick their brains about the direction of their club. Because it seems to me that the ‘Stros are in some kind of albatross of mediocrity and there’s zero hope on the horizon. The starting lineup is fine at the top, but there’s nothing of substance beyond that. If Michael Bourn, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence can’t produce, then nobody will expect Kazuo Matsui, Pedro Feliz and JR Towles to pick up the slack. It’s the same story in the starting rotation, where Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt are the stars and have nothing resembling a supporting cast behind them. This team is the epitome of blah and will probably fade into the background once the season starts. The frustrating thing (at least for fans) is that the Astros have a good enough core to compete, but the surrounding pieces just won’t allow it. Plus, they have very little in the farm system, so they’re essentially stuck with what they have.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates (30)
I could do what most writers do and throw a bunch of one-liners into this preview and just rip the Pirates for being the sack of toilet water they are. (Sack of toilet water?) But really, what’s the point? Everyone knows that the Buc-o’s front office avoids winning at all costs and that the club is destined to lose for the 18th season in a row. There is some hope on the horizon in the form of prospects Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Tony Sanchez, but it’s going to be a few years. And by that time, the front office will probably recognize that those players have talent and ship them off before, God forbid, they have to give them a decent contract. Still, it’s hard not to love Andrew McCutchen’s ability and Garrett Jones could be a star in the making if he can build off his solid ’09 season. The Pirates’ strength is also in their starting pitching, as Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf form a solid 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation. But other than that, well, insert punch line here.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/03/26/2010-mlb-preview-nl-central/feed/ 1 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/22/phillies-knock-off-dodgers-heading-back-to-world-series/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/22/phillies-knock-off-dodgers-heading-back-to-world-series/#comments Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:22:35 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=27240

The Philadelphia Phillies will have the opportunity to defend their World Series title.

Jayson Werth powered the Phils past the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night by hitting two of the club’s four home runs in a 10-4 victory. Pedro Feliz and Shane Victorino also homered for Philly, as they easily disposed of L.A. in five games.

The Phillies’ offense shined in the NLCS, racking up 35 runs in seven games. Thus far, Werth has five dingers in the postseason, while Victorino has three. Philadelphia will now await the winner of the Yankees-Angels series to see who will oppose them in the World Series.

A potential Phillies-Yankees matchup would be entertaining considering how well both clubs are hitting the ball right now. Watching CC Sabathia take on Werth, Victorino, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would be incredibly fun to watch and should draw decent ratings given how big of a market the Yankees play in.

It’s amazing how the Phillies were overlooked before the season. While everyone talked about the Mets, Dodgers and Cubs, the Phillies flew under the radar for the most part and then once again took care of business once the series started.

The Dodgers must be praying they never have to face the Phillies after these last two years.

Click Here to see Previews of all 30 MLB Teams

Offseason Movement: The defending World Series champs added 2B Miguel Cairo, OF Raul Ibanez, C Ronny Paulino and pitchers Gary Majewski and Chan Ho Park this offseason. Philly also parted with OF Pat Burrell, OF So Taguchi and pitchers Adam Eaton, Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez.

Top Prospect: Carlos Carrasco, RHP
Carrasco enters 2009 as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and if Chan Ho Park struggles as the fifth starter, there’s a chance that Carrasco might make an appearance at some point this season. He appears to have a very high ceiling and while he’s still a bit erratic at times, Carrasco will likely smooth out his rough spots in Triple-A before making the big league roster.

The Big Question: Is the starting rotation good enough to repeat?
Cole Hamels is one of baseball’s best young arms, but he had to receive an anti-inflammatory injection in his left elbow in mid-March and there’s some concern that the injury could flair up again. If he shows no ill effects, then he’ll once again head a pretty solid starting rotation, but one that once again won’t be overpowering. Brett Myers struggled last year, while Jamie Moyer was outstanding but at 46 years old can he produce another 16-win season? Joe Blanton turned out to be a solid addition at the trade deadline last year, but don’t forget his career ERA is 4.24 and he’s liable to lose as many games as he wins. Chan Ho Park has had a decent spring but he hasn’t won more than nine games since 2002. (Of course, a 9-win season from a fifth starter would be pretty damn good.) The Phillies could do incredibly worse than this starting rotation, but will it be enough to get them back to the Series?

Outlook: The Phils’ lineup is absolutely stacked and there might not be a better 1 through 4 of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the NL. But despite winning it all last year, Philly doesn’t come without its question marks. Utley and starting 3B Pedro Feliz each had offseason surgery and although they haven’t suffered any setbacks to this point, you just never know how the effects of a full season can have on an injury. As previously mentioned, the starting rotation is pretty solid but the law of averages suggests that Jamie Moyer won’t win 16 games again this season and Joe Blanton’s ceiling seems about maxed. Is Cole Hamels healthy? Can Brett Myers rebound? Some feel as though the Phillies are destined for another NL East crown, but the Mets are stacked and the Braves and Marlins should give opponents fits this year, too. Philly is going to win some games this year and probably make another postseason appearance. But back-to-back World Series titles will be tough.

Projection: 2nd NL East

- Anaheim Angels closer Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez continued his tear and collected his 50th save of the season on Sunday in a 5-3 win against the Minnesota Twins. He’s the fastest to 50 saves by far, taking only 129 games to reach the milestone. His next stop: Bobby Thigpen’s record of 57. Say goodbye Bobby!

- Pedro Feliz hit a huge, clutch walk-off homer for the Phillies to lead them to a 5-2 victory over the LA Dodgers. The Phillies win, plus a Mets loss against the Astros, puts them just a half-game-back.

- For the fifth time in eight starts, Chicago Cubs SP Rich Harden struck out 10 or more batters. The victims this time around were the Washington Nationals. Harden pitched seven strong innings, giving up just two hits and one earned run in a 6-1 victory over the Nationals.

- The Red Sox were able to defeat the Blue Jays by a score of 6-5 with a walk-off homer by Jed Lowrie in the 11th inning Sunday. The Red Sox now focus their attention on the New York Yankees, who held off the Baltimore Orioles with an 8-7 win.