Lakers only offering Odom a three-year deal?

Reports persist that Odom has been offered deals spanning three and four seasons in length from the Lakers, but that differs sharply from every bankable indication we’ve received.

The Lakers’ best offer to Odom, so far, tops out at $27 million over three seasons. The expectation among rival teams remains that the sides will eventually come to terms.

This makes more sense. I don’t know why Odom would turn down a four-year deal from the Lakers worth $36 million to consider a five-year deal worth $34 million from the Heat. If the Lakers are only offering three years, then the total value of the contract is about $24 million after state taxes, so Odom could elect to go with the security of the extra $10 million in the Miami deal.

This, coupled with the Lakers’ decision to pull their offer from the table, might convince Odom to head to Miami and play for the mid-level. Pat Riley also indicated that the Heat are trying to work out a sign-and-trade for Odom, though it’s not clear what players would have to be involved to get the Lakers to agree to take on the extra salary. Udonis Haslem? Michael Beasley?

Clippers going after Ramon Sessions?

The distinct vibe in the stands at UNLV’s Cox Pavilion is that the Clippers — apart from owner Donald Sterling — would greatly prefer to add more of a set-up man to a backcourt rotation that already features Baron Davis and emerging star Eric Gordon as opposed to signing Allen Iverson to a one-year deal up to the full $5.9 million midlevel exception.

The top choice in that scenario? Extending an offer sheet to restricted free agent Ramon Sessions.

I am a huge Sessions fan. Yesterday, I pondered why no one has signed him to an offer sheet when the Bucks are clearly looking to cut salary. He’s only 23, he had the 13th-highest PER amongst all point guards, and the 5th-highest amongst all point guards under the age of 26. With Brandon Jennings playing well in the summer league, the Bucks might be dumb enough to let Sessions go if some team made a substantial ($4-$5 million per year) offer.

A federal judge threw out the SEC suit against Mark Cuban alleging that the Mavs owner participated in insider trading.

Utah will match Blazers’ offer for Paul Millsap.

The Utah Jazz will match the four-year, $32 million offer the Portland Trail Blazers tendered restricted free agent Paul Millsap, the Jazz posted on their Web site Thursday evening. A league source confirmed the development to ESPN.com.

Under the terms of the contract, the Jazz will have to pay the 24-year-old forward $10.3 million this weekend. Portland front-loaded the contract to discourage Utah from matching, but the Jazz had said they would match any offer Millsap received.

While there are those that believe that the Blazers were just trying to put the Jazz in a tough spot, I think they were making a sincere attempt to get one of the best players left on the free agent market. After the Rockets series, the Blazers know that they have to get tougher, and the addition of Millsap would go a long way towards that goal. He doesn’t have the range of LaMarcus Aldridge, but his face up game is improving, so he could fit into Portland’s plan to always have four shooters on the court with Brandon Roy.

With the match, the Blazers have to move on to Plan C. What will it be?

The New York Post speculates that it might be the Knicks’ David Lee, who is apparently still looking for a deal averaging in the $10-$12 million per year range.

T-Wolves GM David Kahn is heading to Spain, hoping to convince Ricky Rubio’s current team (DKV Joventut) to lower his buyout number. Good luck with that, David.

- According to GM Mitch Kupchak, Lamar Odom and the Lakers aren’t on the same page. The team has offered $8 million per season but Odom wants $10 million, and the contract’s length may be an issue too. Dallas, Miami, Phoenix and Portland (if the Jazz match their offer for Paul Millsap) have emerged as possible landing spots for Odom. He doesn’t have much leverage if the Blazers aren’t interested. The other three teams would have to work out a trade and it would take a good player (Josh Howard, Michael Beasley, etc.) to get the Lakers to bite.

- The Jazz have until February to move Carlos Boozer before the luxury tax implications of keeping both Boozer and Paul Millsap kick in. Right now, it looks like the Jazz are planning to match, even if they have to take out a loan to pay Millsap the huge signing bonus that is a part of his deal with the Blazers. If the Jazz do match, it will be interesting to see if the Blazers have a Plan C after missing out on Hedo Turkoglu and Millsap.

- After a brief flirtation with the Bucks and the Bobcats, Josh Childress is heading back to Greece. The Hawks still hold his rights, and his camp was unable to work out a sign-and-trade with Milwaukee or Charlotte, so Childress’s best option was to play for Olympiakos for another season.

- Brandon Roy wants a fifth year option, but the Blazers have only offered four years. It’s not clear what the Blazers are worried about; I’d want to lock him up for as long as possible.

Portland is making a push for Utah forward Paul Millsap.

The Portland Trail Blazers elected Friday not to wait on trade possibilities, deciding instead to offer Utah Jazz restricted free agent Paul Millsap a four-year contract worth an estimated $32 million-to-$36 million, according to sources with knowledge of the Blazers’ plans.

This is more compelling than your average, run-of-the-mill restricted free agent signing because a few days ago the Blazers were rumored to be involved in a three-way trade involving Chicago and Utah where the Bulls would have acquired Carlos Boozer, sending Kirk Hinrich to Portland and Tyrus Thomas to Utah.

But those trade talks stalled in part because the Bulls were not prepared to surrender Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas (who would have been Utah-bound) without getting back promising Portland guard Jerryd Bayless in return in addition to Boozer.

Since the Blazers didn’t want to give up Bayless, they’ve made the decision to extend an offer to Millsap, which puts the pressure on the Jazz to move Boozer. The contract is frontloaded, so if Utah were to have both players on the roster it would put the team deep into luxury tax territory.

Another interesting thing about this move by the Blazers is that Millsap plays the same position as LaMarcus Aldridge, so either they (1) plan on playing Aldridge at center, (2) plan on bringing Millsap off the bench or (3) aren’t optimistic that they can keep Aldridge, who is eligible for an extension this summer. The bad news for the Blazers is that the Jazz have seven days to decide whether or not they’ll match the offer, and during that time Portland’s cap space is tied up, so they can’t make an offer to another free agent. But other than Lamar Odom, Allen Iverson and Andre Miller, there isn’t much out there in the way of unrestricted free agents, so it doesn’t make sense to hold onto the cap space if they aren’t going to use it elsewhere.

If the Blazers can pry away Millsap for $8-$9 million per season, it will be a great move. That’s a good value for a young power forward has proven that he has a potential to be an All-Star-caliber player. But I’d expect that the Jazz will be able to trade Boozer and get a good young player (of Tyrus Thomas’s caliber) in return. There are a number of teams that are interested, including the Bulls, Pistons, Heat and Knicks.

I’d also expect this deal to bring David Lee’s contract expectations back to Earth. I think he and Millsap are about on the same level value-wise, with Millsap having a small edge due to his ability to score in the post.

There is a possible three-team trade brewing…

Sources stressed to ESPN.com that no deal was imminent Thursday and that both Portland and Utah are still evaluating multiple trade scenarios. But two sources with knowledge of the three-team proposal confirmed that there have been substantive talks regarding a trade that would land Boozer in Chicago, Hinrich in Portland and Tyrus Thomas in Utah.

A deal featuring those main components would deliver the elite low-post scorer that the Bulls have been chasing for years in Boozer and furnish Portland with a lead guard in Hinrich that the Blazers are known to rate highly as a potential backcourt mate for Brandon Roy. It’s possible that other players would be added to balance out the transaction from a salary-cap perspective if the three teams elect to take these talks further.

It’s not clear whom the Blazers would have to give up to land Hinrich, but they have cap space so they have some flexibility with regard to how the salaries match up. For the Bulls, this looks like a decent deal depending on whether or not anyone comes over with Boozer. Hinrich and Thomas for Boozer sounds about right.

The Jazz would like to move Boozer, but want to get something in return, and in this case that’s the up-and-coming Thomas. He’s more of a face up forward, so his game should compliment Paul Millsap’s pretty well.

As for the Blazers, they’ve long been rumored to be interested in Hinrich, who can initiate the offense and is a good enough shooter to create space for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. More importantly, he’s a pesky defender that can cover the other team’s best guard, allowing Roy to get a breather on defense. The Blazers need a point but they don’t really want to go too young at the position. They need veteran leadership and Hinrich fits the bill.

Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

Knicks not offering David Lee what he wants?

A team source claims the Knicks will offer David Lee a four-year deal worth $32M, reports the New York Daily News.

Lee and his agent are asking for $10M per season.

Donnie Walsh is no dummy. Lee is an energy player, and those types of bigs don’t generally get the monster contracts that their back-to-the-basket counterparts do. Walsh knows that most players, given the choice, will want to play in New York, so he’s essentially daring another team to come with a strong enough offer to pry Lee away.

The Rockets are interested in Marcin Gortat.

Rockets.com reports Houston wants Marcin Gortat so bad that Rockets’ general manager Daryl Morey rang the door bell at Gortat’s Orlando-area home at 12:01 am this morning.

I like Morey’s style. While showing up at the house at midnight is a little stalker-ish, I think Gortat will let it slide. Morey even asked Rockets fans for help in recruiting Gortat by setting up an email account for them to send messages to show their support for the signing.

With Yao Ming out indefinitely, it makes sense that the Rockets would try to lock up another center. The Rockets are over the cap, so they can only offer a mid-level deal unless they can swing a sign-and-trade with Orlando.

Jazz not deterred — first to contact Paul Millsap.

General manager Kevin O’Connor called at 10 p.m., according to Millsap’s agent, DeAngelo Simmons.

Simmons called O’Connor a “class act” for the gesture, adding, “I think it was great that they called and expressed their interest. That’s good on their part.”

Simmons is seeking a contract in the $10M a year range for Millsap.

With Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur making the (semi-)surprising decisions to play another season in Utah, the Jazz are going to have to go well over the luxury tax threshold to re-sign Millsap. Utah is a small market team who usually has to overpay to convince free agents to come to (or to stay in) Salt Lake City. Already having Deron Williams locked up is a big bonus.

It will be interesting to see where Millsap lands now that Boozer and Okur are off the market.

Andre Miller wants to get paid.

“We feel, from his body of work, Philadelphia should obviously reflect that in an offer, in appreciation for what he has done or what he can do for them in the future. We know the team has financial commitments elsewhere, but we also know Andre has continued to produce and deliver.”

Everyone wants to get paid, but 33-year-old Miller is reportedly seeking a three-year deal worth $30 million. Anytime an agent starts talking about his client wanting “appreciation for what he has done,” it’s time to get a little worried. $10 million per season is way too much to pay Miller and his camp knows that the Sixers are probably the only team able to make that kind of an offer.

Tuesday Afternoon Update: Mehmet Okur is going to play the final year of his contract as well.

Earlier today, we discussed the possibility of Carlos Boozer playing out the final year of his contract, and that’s exactly what he decided to do.

Boozer’s decision was a reversal from his December comments to an ESPN.com reporter that he was planning to opt out and would get a raise regardless. The Jazz, however, long questioned if the market that Boozer believed existed was more fantasy than reality.

In the end, it sounds as if Boozer considered his prospects and decided to take the sure $12.7 million instead of rolling the dice on the open market. If he is able to play at a high level and without injury, he stands to significantly improve his value heading into the summer of 2010. There are so many teams cutting salary in preparation for that summer’s free agent frenzy, so if he can stay healthy, he definitely stands to gain. However, by playing out the last year of this deal, he is forgoing the security of the long-term contract that he otherwise would have signed this summer. If he were to suffer a career-ending injury next season, he’d be leaving perhaps $42 million on the table.

How does this affect the team’s payroll?

The Jazz also are treading in dangerous territory in regard to the luxury tax. Boozer’s return gives them approximately $64.5 million in salary commitments to 10 players for the upcoming season.

That’s before making decisions about re-signing Okur – should he opt out – and Millsap. The NBA’s luxury-tax threshold is expected to be around $70 million and the Jazz would have to carry at least a league-minimum 13 players on their roster.

“It could be [a problem],” Miller said, “but it’s like I said before: If we need to go into the luxury tax to protect our players and protect our team, keep it intact, we’d have to take a look at that.”

If Okur opts out, the Jazz projected payroll would be around $63 million, leaving some (but not a lot) of flexibility to sign Paul Millsap. If Okur plays out the final year of his deal, Utah will have to pay a steep luxury tax to re-sign Millsap. Essentially, if a franchise is over the luxury tax threshold, they have to pay a dollar-for-dollar tax. Simply stated, now that Boozer has opted in, if Okur opts in, it’s going to make it tougher for the Jazz to retain Millsap.

I’m sure there are a few teams out there licking their chops at the prospect of signing Millsap.

Yesterday, I ranked the top unrestricted free agents of 2009, but now it’s time to look at this summer’s crop of restricted free agents (RFA). Teams can sign an RFA to an offer sheet, then his team has seven days to match that offer to retain him. If the player doesn’t sign an offer sheet and can’t come to terms on a new contract with his current team, then he will play for a year for the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

1. Paul Millsap, PF (24)
PER: 18.71
In his third year, this former second round pick had the best season of his career. He averaged 13.5 points and 8.6 rebounds, while shooting better than 53% from the field. While Carlos Boozer was out in December and January, the Jazz got a preview of what this kid can do when he gets starter’s minutes. He was a 17/11 guy during those two months, but the Jazz only went 11-13 in games in which Millsap played during that span. His camp expects a deal similar to the one David Lee is asking for, so something in the $10 million per season range. Is he worth it? Probably. And from the sound of it, the Jazz plan on offering him a deal that will keep him from testing the market. If he does explore his options, it may pay off as the Thunder and Pistons are rumored to have interest.
Value: $9.5 – $10.5 million per year

2. David Lee, PF (26)
PER: 19.07
GM Donnie Walsh said that the Knicks’ picking Jordan Hill in this year’s draft has nothing to do with Lee, but the two play the same position, so of course it’s going to have an effect on how the Knicks and Lee each view their relationship. The other issue is that two of the Knicks’ targets in 2010 are Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire might also play the same position as Lee, though Mike D’Antoni would likely play either at center, allowing Lee to play power forward. He gets most of his points off the glass, so he’d be a good fit with either of those guys. The Knicks are projected to have about $35 million in cap space heading into the summer of 2010 and whatever deal they sign Lee to will cut into that. If they want to keep Lee and sign two big-name free agents, then they’re going to have to rid themselves of either Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry prior to 2010. I like Lee, but he’s not a guy that you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score, and that limits his value somewhat as a big man. The Thunder, Kings, Grizzlies, Raptors and Pistons could all make a serious run at Lee, though anytime a team tries to poach a restricted free agent, it’s a delicate balance between offering him enough to convince the other team to let him go, while getting a reasonable deal at the same time.
Value: $9.0 – $10.0 million per year.

3. Ramon Sessions, PG (23)
PER: 17.65
Regular readers know that I love this guy. I’m a Bucks fan so I see more of their games than the average NBA fan. Trust me — Sessions is flying under the radar. Normally, I think the Bucks would match any offer up to the mid-level exception, but now that they drafted Brandon Jennings, they may deem it too much to pay for a backup point guard. But Sessions is no backup. Jennings is a few years away from being a dominant player, and there’s no guarantee he’ll develop, so the Bucks would be wise to keep the 23-year-old Sessions around. He had the 13th-highest PER amongst all point guards, and the 5th-highest amongst all point guards under the age of 26. Moreover, his +/- numbers are the best on the team for anyone who played more than 1200 minutes. I definitely think that’s worth the mid-level. The Grizzlies, Hawks and Blazers might be willing to pay more, who knows.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

4. Marvin Williams, F (23)
PER: 16.04
Williams is just 23, and averaged around 14/6 the last two seasons. He really improved his three point shot last year, nailing about 35% of his attempts (after shooting a woeful 10% the year before). His PER took a nice jump from 14.74 to 16.04, so he’s definitely developing, but what’s his upside? He’s a pretty good defender and he’s really young. In fact, he’s the complete package, but isn’t necessarily destined to be a star. He’s slated to make $7.3 million this season, and should probably sign an extension in that ballpark. The Kings, Raptors, T-Wolves and Blazers could use some help at small forward, so there may be a market if he and the Hawks can’t come to terms.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

5. Josh Childress, SF (26)
PER: 18.00 (2007-08 season)
Childress, who spent the last year playing in Greece, could return to the NBA as a restricted free agent, but the general consensus is that he’s going to stay overseas. He’s a very good all-around player, but doesn’t have the upside of his former teammate, Marvin Williams, so this summer he’s probably a MLE-type player.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

6. Charlie Villanueva, F (24)
PER: 18.64
Charlie V performed admirably when Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut went out with injuries. In 47 games as a starting forward, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.3 rebounds, and shot 35% from long range. He’s a perimeter oriented power forward — sort of a poor man’s Rashard Lewis. This makes him an appealing option for the Cavs, who could use a guy like Villanueva to match up with Orlando. In fact, due to fiscal constraints, the Bucks may not even make the qualifying offer of $4.6 million that’s required to make Villanueva a restricted free agent. If they don’t, they’ll lose him with no compensation. He doesn’t play much defense, so I think someone will offer him the mid-level.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

7. Nate Robinson, G (25)
PER: 18.95
At just 5’9″, it’s not clear that Robinson is suited for a starting role. He’s a terrific scorer (17.1 ppg last season), but he shoots less than 44% from the field and less than 33% from long range. Even so, he had the 8th-highest PER in the league amongst point guards and set a career high with 4.1 assists per game. He’s not a pure point guard, which means he might not be long for New York — Mike D’Antoni likes a pass-first point guard running the show. Still, his terrific offensive skills and high energy make him a valuable reserve who can finish games given the right matchup. I think the MLE is a possibility.
Value: $5.0 – $6.0 million per year

8. Ray Felton, G (25)
PER: 13.80
Felton has been a 14/7 guy the last three seasons, but his shooting (41% from the field, 29% from long range) is fairly brutal. He’s a pretty good playmaker and his overall efficiency would benefit if he focused more on distribution than scoring. He spent much of last season playing out of position alongside D.J. Augustin in the backcourt, but given the right situation and the right guidance, he has the potential to be a very good point guard. His rep is bigger than his game right now, which might lead to a wake up call when it’s time to talk turkey.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

9. Glen Davis, F (23)
PER: 10.77
Big Baby’s regular season efficiency was nothing to write home about but in 16 games a starter, he averaged 12.6 points and 5.6 rebounds, while shooting 48% from the field. With Kevin Garnett out for the postseason, David really stepped up his scoring, averaging 15.8 points and 5.6 rebounds in the playoffs. At 6’9″ and 289 lbs, I’d like to see better rebound numbers. He’s strong as an ox, but isn’t terribly quick and has short arms. (Hence, the nickname.) Is he a starter-quality power forward? Right now, I don’t think so. His regular season PER (10.77) is well below average, and one good run in the playoffs does not a career make. Davis peaked at the right time however, as some team will likely reward his efforts with a nice contract. I think it will fall below the MLE, but you never know.
Value: $4.0 – $5.0 million per year

10. Marcin Gortat, C (25)
PER: 17.04
Gortat is a beefy center, but doesn’t get much run playing behind Dwight Howard in Orlando. He’s pretty skilled in the post, though he gets most of his points on dunks since there is so much attention paid to the other Magic players. He’s a fringe starter at center, and that makes him a pretty valuable commodity. The Knicks are supposedly interested, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs a mid-level deal.
Value: $5.0 million – $6.0 million per year

Other notables: Channing Frye, Linas Kleiza, Leon Powe, Jarrett Jack, Shannon Brown, Hakim Warrick, Jamario Moon

Related content:

The Top Unrestricted Free Agents of 2009
Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?
The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010