The Patriots’ 20-17 overtime loss to the Broncos in Denver on Sunday is a perfect example of how the stat sheet doesn’t tell the whole story.

Tom Brady threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions on 19-of-33 passing today. That’s a solid stat line and if someone were only looking at those numbers, they’d attribute New England’s loss to something other than its quarterback.

But all is not right with Brady. His offensive line gave him plenty of time today and yet he never got into a rhythm in the passing game, which isn’t the first time I’ve written that about Brady in 2009. He never seemed to get on the same page as his receivers and he overthrew an open Randy Moss (who finished with only one catch) at least twice.

Brady has always been a fiery player, but he seems to express his frustrations more openly this season. It’s almost like he’s trying too hard to be the player he was before his knee injury and isn’t allowing the game to come to him. He knows he’s missing open receivers and he’s not shaking the bad plays off as quickly as he once did. His confidence seems to be down and it has made the Pats incredibly vulnerable.

That said, New England’s loss in Denver today could hardly be pinned solely on Brady missing the mark in the passing game. Kyle Orton shredded the Patriots’ pass defense for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 35-of-48 passing. Say what you want about Orton, but he’s 26-12 as a starter despite having only two 300-plus passing games over his career. That’s a testament to how well he manages the game and limits mistakes.

It was good to see Eddie Royal (10 receptions, 90 yards) finally snap out of his early season funk and turn in a complete game. If he can build off this, he’ll give Orton another weapon in the passing game and help take attention off of Brandon Marshall, who once again came up huge with a fourth quarter touchdown.

If the Broncos could crash at any point and their 5-0 start would be nothing but a distant memory. But if their defense continues to play as well as it has, then they’ll cruise to an AFC West title, which seemed highly unlikely just five weeks ago.

Here are quick-hit previews of the top four games on the Week 5 schedule in the NFL.

1. Patriots (3-1) at Broncos (4-0), 4:15PM ET
Several pundits have remarked that the Patriots are back after beating the Falcons and Ravens in back to back weeks. But some of their struggles still remain. For the most part, Baltimore marched up and down the field on New England’s defense in Week 4 and if it weren’t for a couple of key drops in the red zone, the Ravens could have walked out of Foxboro with a victory. The Broncos need to pressure Tom Brady for four quarters and not stop what has worked for them the first four weeks. Offensively, Knowshon Moreno will have the opportunity to shine today in his first start and as long as Kyle Orton doesn’t turn the ball over, Denver could pull off the small upset.

2. Bengals (3-1) at Ravens (3-1), 1:00PM ET
Who would have thought this would be a big game in Week 5? The Ravens are still seething from their loss to the Patriots last weekend and will look to take it out on an underrated Bengals team. Cincinnati’s 3-1 record is no fluke – they beat the Packers in Green Bay and the defending champion Steelers at home. While they didn’t play well last week in an overtime with over Cleveland, the Bengals proved that they could still wind up victorious even when they make mistakes. Carson Palmer and company won’t get away with turning the ball over today, however. The Ravens feast off turnovers and Cincinnati’s defense will be challenge to slow down Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the potent Baltimore offense. This game will be a great test to see where the Bengals are.

3. Falcons (2-1) at 49ers (3-1), 4:05PM ET
Nobody wants to define either of these teams. Before the Falcons lost to the Patriots in Week 3, many people thought they were an elite squad. Plenty of pundits want to crown the 49ers a legitimate playoff team, but they need to sustain momentum and beat a good Atlanta team at home. Even without Frank Gore, this is a game San Francisco can control. The Falcons have had issues stopping the run and if the Niners can get Glen Coffee going early, it could open things up for Shaun Hill and the passing game. Mike Singletary’s defense has been great up to this point and if they sell out to stop Michael Turner and the Falcons’ running game, they better be prepared to double team tight end Tony Gonzalez and slow Matt Ryan in the passing game. This should be a fun matchup throughout.

4. Texans (2-2) at Cardinals (1-2), 4:15PM ET
It’s time for one of these teams to step up. The Texans have more than enough offensive weapons to make a playoff run but their defense has issues stopping the run and keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Cardinals have dinked and dunked their way through the first three games but Kurt Warner needs to start testing defenses vertically or else this team will continue to struggle. This is actually a good matchup for Houston because Arizona doesn’t pose much of a ground threat and the Texans have a decent pass defense. If the Cards can’t get Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower going, they will have trouble building and sustaining a lead today. And if they can’t take control of this game, they’ll be at risk of once again losing at home, where they were so dominant last year.

Here are my top four plays against the spread for Week 5 in the NFL. (Fade at will.)

Steelers (2-2) at Lions (1-3), 1:00PM ET
The Lions are in trouble for a couple reasons, although none bigger than not having rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford (knee injury) run their offense. Stafford is expected to be sidelined for Detroit’s game against the defending champs this weekend, which means Daunte Culpepper will get the start. Even without Troy Polamalu, the Steelers defense should handle everything Culpepper throws their way and generate a turnover or two. This is another big test for Rashard Mendenhall. If he follows up his 165-yard effort against the Chargers last week with a dud against the lowly Lions, then the Steelers’ ground game is right back where it started at the beginning of the season (i.e. in trouble). That said, Ben Roethlisberger should have no issues moving the ball through the air against Detroit’s 25th ranked pass defense. Will this be the game Pittsburgh finally plays all four quarters and step on an opponent’s throat?
Odds: Steelers –10.5.
Prediction: Steelers 34, Lions 14.

Patriots (3-1) at Broncos (4-0), 4:15PM ET
The Broncos aren’t going to move the ball against the Patriots as well as the Ravens did last week, but they should have more than enough weapons in Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to keep the chains moving and give their defense time to rest. Speaking of Denver’s defense, as long as Elvis Dummervil and company continue to generate pressure, the Broncos should pull off the upset as home dogs this Sunday. The Patriots’ issues are far from solved and Bill Belichick knows his team has to go week-to-week and game-by-game. New England has struggled in Denver over the years, covering the spread just five times in its last 20 visits to the Mile-High City. This will be a great test for the Broncos defense to see where they’re at, and I think they harass Tom Brady just enough to earn a victory.
Odds: Patriots –3.5.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 17.

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Here are odds and quick-hit previews of all the action in Week 5 in the NFL.

Vikings -10 over 41
Rams +10 under 41
Fresh off their impressive Monday night win over divisional rival Green Bay, Minnesota travels to St. Louis to take on the worst team in football. The Rams’ woes are primarily in the passing game, where they’re averaging a measly 139.5 yards per game. Steven Jackson won’t find much running room in this one, so look for Jared Allen to have another monster performance against St. Louis’ collection of weak offensive tackles. Brett Favre probably won’t need to display the magic he did Monday night against the Packers because Adrian Peterson should have plenty of running room.

Cowboys –9 Over 42.5
Chiefs +9 Under 42.5
Dallas has had issues the past two weeks moving the ball offensively, but they have played better on defense. Tony Romo continues to regress in his decision-making and he hasn’t had much help from his two star backs Marion Barber and Felix Jones, who have each battled injuries. The ‘Boys shouldn’t get much of a challenge against a Chiefs team that is still struggling in their transition to the 3-4 defensive scheme, although you never know with the way Romo and company have looked the past two weeks. (Even in their win over the Panthers, Dallas struggled offensively.)

Redskins +3.5 Over 37.5
Panthers –3.5 Under 37.5
Carolina had a much-needed bye last week and John Fox hopes the team ironed out some of its issues. The Panthers are averaging less than a touchdown per game and quarterback Jake Delhomme has often killed scoring drives with turnovers and poor decision-making. Carolina will face a Washington team this weekend that needed two third quarter touchdowns to squeak by Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Redskins have racked up plenty of yards offensively, but usually come away with nothing to show for it, as Jim Zorn’s playcalling has gotten ultra-conservative.

Bucs +15 over 43
Eagles –15 under 43
Donovan McNabb should be back under center this weekend for the Eagles after suffering a rib injury in the opening week of the season. With McNabb, Philly looked potent offensively against the Panthers and the Eagles could destroy a Tampa team that is allowing 393.5 yards per game. The Bucs will start Josh Johnson under center again, although he could have issues moving the offense against a tough Philly defense.

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