Matthew J. Darnell, Shutdown Corner: Before the 2008 season, [GM Ted] Thompson made the decision that the Packers were better off without beloved longtime quarterback Brett Favre. The decision made him an evil, cut-throat jackass in the eyes of many, but Thompson never once wavered. When Favre made his first retirement announcement, Thompson moved on to Aaron Rodgers as the Packers quarterback, and that was it. Any vindication he needed on that decision, he probably felt the very next morning. He believed that letting Favre walk and putting the franchise in Rodgers’ hands was the right call for the future of the Green Bay Packers. He was right, of course, and he was right before Brett Favre had a miserable 2010 season, and he was right before Aaron Rodgers laid waste to the Falcons secondary yesterday. He was right because he made the decision he felt was right at the time, and he stuck to it.

Kevin Seifert, ESPN: It doesn’t matter to me whether or not Rodgers now stands on a mythical stage with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and maybe Ben Roethlisberger. What’s important is that Rodgers is providing the Packers both the opportunity and the bravado necessary to win the Super Bowl… We’ll find out Sunday whether the Packers will play the Chicago Bears or the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. Regardless of the opponent, the Packers know they have the single-most important ingredient to a championship team: An elite-level quarterback who has elevated his game at the time when it matters most.

Gary D’Amato, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: Bart Starr in the 1960s and Brett Favre in the ’90s had impressive playoff games, but if Rodgers’ performance wasn’t the greatest ever by a Packers quarterback in the postseason, it certainly has to be part of the conversation. Rodgers wouldn’t acknowledge it was his best-ever game but admitted it was among his top few. Considering the Packers were playing a top-seeded team with a 13-3 record that was coming off a bye and playing at home, he couldn’t have played much better. Rodgers had total command of the game plan and his improvisational skills were as sharp as could be. Whether he was spinning out of tackles and extending plays with his feet, throwing passes with pinpoint accuracy or changing plays and orchestrating personnel before the snap, he was nothing short of brilliant.

Matthew J. Darnell, Shutdown Corner: Playoff games are what people remember, and it’s true, Ryan’s finest moments have not come in his biggest games. But that can’t overshadow the fact that Ryan, for a third-year pro, is pretty damn good. He posted a quarterback rating this season that landed him between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. He’s going to the Pro Bowl. He’s also 25 years old and has seen just two playoff games. If the issue is his postseason poise — and it might not be; it could just be that he’s played two pretty good defenses and he’s happened to have two off days at the wrong time — that comes with experience. I see no reasons to be concerned about Matt Ryan’s poise in the long-term. He’ll have plenty more opportunities in the playoffs. And he’ll have better days than he did today.

Mark Bradley, Atlanta Journal-Constitution: A defense that didn’t yield more than 32 points in any game this regular season was overrun for 42 points — in the first three quarters. The D had made a big early play, Stephen Nicholas forcing a Greg Jennings fumble that Brent Grimes gathered. That enabled the Falcons to take a 7-0 lead. That would also be the last time over the next five Green Bay drives that the Packers didn’t score a touchdown. Five possessions, five scores. The first four came on drives of 81, 92, 80 and 80 yards. (The final series spanned a mere 50.) The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers didn’t complete every pass, but he came close. Through three quarters he had passed 31 times, completing 27. He’d thrown for 330 yards in 45 minutes. Rodgers had treated the Falcons’ secondary as if the signing of Dunta Robinson had never been consummated, as if Brent Grimes hadn’t developed into a big-play cornerback, as if nothing that occurred this regular season had been anything more than a sweet dream. Alas, this was reality, stark and sobering. In a playoff game against a top-class quarterback, the Falcons’ newly tailored defense was made to seem shabby. The pass rush couldn’t get there, and nobody downfield could cover or tackle or do much of anything.

Here are six thoughts on the Packers’ 48-21 rout of the horrendous Falcons in the NFL Divisional Round.

1. Aaron Rodgers is a superstar.
That was like watching someone take candy from a baby. When I checked the stat sheet following the game and saw that Rodgers completed 31-of-36 pass attempts, I literally said out loud, “He had five incompletions?” I swear I only saw two of his passes hit the ground. He was surgical with his throws, averaging 10.2 yards per pass with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Even when the Falcons accidentally pressured him, he evaded pass-rushers and often bought himself more time with his feet. There were at least three times when Atlanta defenders had him dead to rights and every time he shook free to find a wide-open receiver. If he plays that well next week, the Packers will be going to the Super Bowl.

2. Really? That was your defensive game plan, VanGorder?
Rodgers is great but Atlanta’s defense made him look like the freak-o love child of Brett Favre, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Roger Staubach, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, Steve Young and Fran Tarkenton. That was one of the worst defensive efforts I’ve ever seen from a team that qualified for the postseason and I can’t say that it was all the players’ fault. During the first meeting between these two teams in November (a game Atlanta somehow won), Rodgers tore the Falcons’ defense to shreds when they only rushed three linemen. So what does defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder do on Saturday night? He only rushes three down linemen for most of the first half, of course. Rodgers is going to make plays – I get that. But you’re telling me that’s the best game plan that VanGorder could come up with? Rush three and sit back in zone? How pathetic. How unbelievably, undeniably pathetic. Where was the VanGorder defense that blitzed Drew Brees for four quarters and held him in check four weeks ago? Where was the defensive-minded Mike Smith when it was clear that Van Gorder was completely overmatched by Mike McCarthy? Guys like John Abraham and Stephen Nicolas failed to bring down Rodgers when they had clear shots at him. That’s not VanGorder’s fault. But my high school ran a better defense and all we did played was a 4-3 with a Cover 4. I won’t ever come to understand how VanGorder thought that game plan was best for slowing down Aaron bleeping Rodgers. Horrible, absolutely horrible.

3. Williams changed this game in a blink of an eye.
I don’t think the Packers were going to lose this game. Rodgers was too good and the Falcons were too overmatched for Green Bay to walk out of Atlanta without a victory. That said, Tramon Williams was the reason that this game wasn’t close. He was clearly beaten by Michael Jenkins on an end zone pass in the second quarter, but because Matt Ryan threw the pass like an 86-year-old grandma with arthritis, Williams was able to recover and make a great interception. Then he sealed the win for Green Bay right before half by baiting Ryan on a sideline route and taking his second pick of the quarter to the house for six. After that, the Falcons were done. You could see it in their eyes – they wanted to tap out. That interception was deflating and the Falcons weren’t willing to get off the mat. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: If only one Green Bay cornerback is heading to the Pro Bowl this year, it should be Tramon Williams. No offense to Charles Woodson because he’s great, but Williams was the Packers’ best defensive back this season.

4. “Matty Ice” has the same problem Joe Flacco does.
I love the guy and I think he has enormous potential but I’m not going to sugarcoat it: Matt Ryan was absolutely horrendous. He completed 20-of-29 pass attempts tonight but most of his completions didn’t travel more than seven yards. As noted in point No. 3, his two interceptions did the Falcons in. Had he not short-armed the throw to Jenkins midway through the third quarter, the Falcons would have had a 21-14 lead. And had Williams not played him like a fiddle right before halftime, maybe the Falcons would have only been down seven or four points before halftime. Ryan played like a rookie tonight and he’s now 0-2 in the postseason. Just like Joe Flacco, Ryan didn’t elevate his game in the playoffs. And just like Flacco, he was schooled by a better, more experienced quarterback who has put his team in position to possibly play in this year’s Super Bowl. Ryan did some great things this year and he has quite a future in the NFL, but he was at his worst when his team needed him to play the game of his life.

5. Packers are the team to beat in NFC.
I know the Bears and Seahawks haven’t even played a down yet, but how could you not like the Packers’ chances of advancing to the Super Bowl? The Bears are solid but the Packers have all the elements to what makes a championship team. They have a great quarterback, an opportunistic defense with a great secondary and their wide receiver staff is outstanding as well. James Starks (25 carries, 66 yards) was a bit of a disappointment after his 123-yard effort against the Eagles last week, but stopping the run is about the only thing the Falcons’ defense does remotely well so it wasn’t a shock that he struggled. Plus, when you can throw the ball as well as the Packers did on Saturday night, there was really no need for Starks to be a factor. (That said, he was still effective, even though he only rushed for 2.6 YPC.) Before injuries took their toll, the Packers were arguably the best team at the start of the year. When it’s all said and done, they might get a chance to prove that they’re still the best team in the league.

6. Where do the Falcons go from here?
Earlier on Saturday, the Steelers were down 14 points at halftime and rallied to beat the Ravens. The Falcons were down by the same margin at the half and they didn’t bother to come out of the locker room. That’s the difference between a Super Bowl-caliber franchise and one that just finally achieved back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in team history just last year. The Falcons are in great hands with GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Mike Smith, but this team needs a lot more than just a few minor tweaks. Nobody bought into Atlanta being a true No. 1 seed, but you can’t get blown out 48-21 on your home field. They just didn’t show up. Going forward, they need way more speed on offense and coordinator Mike Mularkey needs to expand his offense. This is a passing league now and his receivers are constantly running seven-yard stop routes. It’s not his fault his players turned the ball over four times but his system looks completely outdated. Dimitroff also needs to continue to build the defense. Part of the Falcons’ problem on that side of the ball is that they just need more experience. Sean Weatherspoon and William Moore are going to be good players, but they need more seasoning. Dimitroff also needs to find another pass-rusher or two, or the coaching staff needs to speed up Lawrence Sidbury’s development because he certainly looks the part. This team is not 27 points worse than the Packers. They’re much, much better than what they showed on Saturday. But it’s not a stretch to say that the Packers proved just how far the Falcons have to go in order to join the elite.

Saturday marks a special day in my relationship with my co-worker Anthony Stalter. No, it’s not our anniversary or anything – my favorite team is the Green Bay Packers and he’s an Atlanta Falcons fan, so the fact that the two teams are squaring off in the playoffs is a pretty big deal in our world. In fact, since he lives in St. Louis and I live in Southern California, we’ve both agreed to purchase a 12-pack of Bud Select 55 (not a plug, but it could be!) and pretend that we’re splitting a case while watching the game together.

As I just tweeted, everything that happens today is just a preamble to Saturday’s game, so let’s talk a little trash as we try to run the clock out on the work week.

JP: First of all, let’s see who’s the bigger fan. I was born outside of Milwaukee and grew up loving the Packers, even when players like Lynn Dickey, Eddie Lee Ivory and Paul Ott Carruth were the big names (and an 8-8 record was a successful season). Then came Brett Favre (ironically via a trade with the Falcons) who was my favorite player for 16 freaking years before he retired his way to our arch-rival. Blood had been spilled. My autographed photo of Favre is sitting, face-down, in the garage, waiting for his inevitable “mea culpa” visit to Lambeau in a couple of years. What’s my point? I’m a fan of the Packers, not of any one player. Now, tell us how you became a fan of the Falcons…

AS: I grew up in Chicago so many people assume that I’m a Bears fan (why they would think that, I have no idea). But my folks are from New York so they had no loyalty to the home team. To my family’s disappointment, I didn’t become a Jets fan. When I was real young, I liked certain players instead of teams. But when I was 9, the first playoff game I remember watching from start to finish was the 1991 Wildcard matchup between the Saints and Falcons. When you’re a kid, you usually don’t focus on defensive players, but I was enamored with Deion Sanders. He was the most athletic player I had ever watched. Chris Miller also hit Michael Haynes on a 61-yard touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter, so that particular game was thrilling. I’ve been hooked on the Falcons ever since, even though it hasn’t been easy being a fan of theirs over the years. Up until last year, they never had back-to-back winning seasons so I’ve endured a lot of losing. From Jeff George to Jamal Anderson to Michael Vick (ugh, talk about highs and lows), they’ve put me through a lot. But just like you when it comes to the Packers JP, the Falcons will forever be my team. Since I have never lived in Atlanta, DirecTV’s “Sunday Ticket” is the world’s greatest invention. I never miss a snap of the Falcons’ games, even when I have to watch them again later so I can fulfill my responsibilities to TSR.

JP: Did I mention that the Falcons actually drafted Favre out of college and traded him to the Packers? Ron Wolf got the better end of that deal, though Jerry Glanville now claims that he traded Favre to help sober him up. Seriously.

Anyway, you may be a fractured sports fan, since you like the Giants in baseball and the Spurs in the NBA, but I’ll give you credit, you’ve been a Falcons fan for as long as I’ve known you. Atlanta does hold a special place in my heart though – they were the ones who kept the Vikings out of Super Bowl XXXIII even though you couldn’t beat John Elway, who beat my Packers the year before with “The Dive.” What a jagoff.

So moving on to Saturday’s game. I think it’s going to be a tight one, just like the first meeting this season. I think the Packers have the slight edge in talent, though the Falcons don’t beat themselves, which is something that Green Bay has a tendency to do. If Roddy White’s knee were 100%, I’d take the Falcons, but I don’t think it is and losing that dimension hurts Atlanta’s offense. Green Bay will win if they keep the penalties down and if they can contain Michael Turner. I saw a stat that said that, in the first meeting, he rushed for 5.8 yards per carry against the Packers when GB had eight men in the box. As a Packer fan, that’s scary.

AS: You and I can definitely agree on one thing: John Elway is a jagoff. Every time the NFL Network shows him running down the field with his arms in the air after beating the Falcons in XXIII, I want to punch my TV screen. And Glanville is a lying if he says he traded Favre to help sober him up. Glanville never wanted to draft Favre – that was all Ken Herock. But he forced Herock to trade Favre because he was never going to play him. Ahhhh! What could have been…

Outside of the 2005 Steelers, the Packers are the most dangerous No. 6 seed I think I’ve ever seen in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers was the NFC’s MVP in my opinion. The guy didn’t have a running game until last week and even though teammates on both sides of the ball were dropping like flies around him due to injuries, he kept the Packers afloat almost single-handedly. (I know he has a great receiving corp, but they do seem to drop a lot of balls.) To me, this game comes down to two things: 1) Michael Turner and 2) Atlanta’s ability to get pressure on Rodgers using only its front four. If the Falcons can run the ball and eat up a lot of clock, then they’ll be able to limit the damage Rodgers can create. And if they can pressure him using only John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux, Corey Peters and Kroy Biermann, their linebackers will be free to contain new sparkplug James Starks and help out in coverage. But that’s easier said than done. Rodgers is still going to make plays and even if you blitz him, he’s outstanding when it comes to getting the ball out of his hands quickly. What’s your take on Starks and his ability to provide Mike McCarthy with balance?

JP: I like Starks a lot! He has a good combination of strength, speed and wiggle and has a lot more upside than any other RB on the Packer roster, including Ryan Grant, who is a strong runner, but isn’t very elusive. Starks showed the ability to make people miss when he caught a pass out of the backfield against the Eagles and dodged a tackler or two to pick up the first down. His success will be key on Saturday. Atlanta is 10th in the league in rushing yards allowed, but they do give up 4.6 yards per carry (25th), so if Green Bay sticks with the run, Starks could have a nice day. Unfortunately, the Packers are 28th in ypc allowed (4.7) so I’m very worried about Turner going off.

Change of subject – I’ve asked you this before, but I think it’s an interesting question to revisit: If you were running the Falcons and Ted Thompson called you up and offered Aaron Rodgers straight up for Matt Ryan, would you pull the trigger?

AS: Oh, man – bringing out the big guns for this piece! That’s a hard question to answer because I’ve rooted for Ryan since his rookie year (it would be difficult to say that you would trade a player that you’ve become so fond of) and as you know, I’ve been a supporter of Rodgers since Favre “retired” his way out of Green Bay. Rodgers is better than Ryan right now. He also has a stronger arm and people don’t give him enough credit for being a good athlete (which is one of the reasons he dropped in the draft, even though he’s proven that he can run). But he would also be a total waste in Mike Mularkey’s offense. The routes in his offense aren’t designed to test defenses vertically – they’re meant to be zone killers. He’s also loyal to his running game and strives for almost 50-50 balance between pass and run. Ryan is a perfect fit for Mularkey’s system because he’s intelligent, he makes quick reads and he’s incredibly accurate. That’s not to say that Rodgers doesn’t have those intangibles because he does. (And to clarify my thoughts, I think Rodgers could be successful in any system.) But Ryan is two years younger than Rodgers and his arrow is pointing up, too. So based on my offensive coordinator, the system and the age factor, no, I wouldn’t want to trade Ryan for Rodgers.

Give me one Green Bay player to watch for that nobody is talking about right now that you think will make a big impact come Saturday.

JP: Wait, you want to build around an offensive coordinator and not a franchise QB? Well, it’s good that you would say no because the Packers would never offer up that trade. Back to your “player to watch” request – OLB Erik Walden was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his Week 17 performance (16 tackles, two sacks) against the Bears. He followed it up with five tackles, another sack and a forced fumble against the Eagles. He was drafted by the Cowboys in the 6th round in the ’08 draft, but Ted Thompson signed the Middle Tennessee State product as a free agent off the street in late October. He’s now a starter in Dom Capers 3-4 defense. If he and Clay Matthews can bring consistent pass rush, it’s going to make things very difficult for Matt Ryan.

Well, we’re almost to the 1700-word mark, which means we better wrap this up. How do you see this game going and who do you predict will win?

AS: It figures that you would ask me a hard question like that and then call me out on my answer! That was dirty. Obviously I wouldn’t want to build around an offensive coordinator. I could have completely copped out and just said that both quarterbacks would be great in any situation but I wanted to give you some thought behind my completely biased answer. So thanks for ruining this, John. I was having fun…

It’s not a stretch to say that the majority of the nation favors the Packers in this game. I watched three different preview shows on NFL Network this week and all of the analysts picked the Packers. My former hero Deion Sanders even went on to say that he “can’t stand” Atlanta’s secondary. So while Vegas has installed the Falcons as a favorite, they’re an underdog in the court of public opinion. To me, what this game comes down to is this: Can the Packers play a near-perfect game? Because the Falcons don’t do things to beat themselves and they’re the ones that are rested and playing at home. The advantages they have don’t show up in the box score, which is why I don’t take a lot of stock in all of statistical evidence that suggests the Falcons shouldn’t even bother showing up on Saturday night. I see this being a surprisingly low-scoring game and the Falcons winning with a late field goal.

JP: Oh, come on. I’m not buying that anyone is trying to sell that the Falcons shouldn’t bother to show up Saturday night. This is the #1 seed playing at home after a week’s rest. Of course they are the favorite. As you mentioned, the Packers are a live dog and are the sexier pick for the pundits, but every time a so-called “expert” picks Green Bay in this game, it’s one more piece of motivation for Mike Smith and the Falcons. They’re going to play the “no respect” card and that’s a good one to have in your corner. I am going to pick the Falcons as well, 24-23. That way it’s a win-win for me – if Green Bay prevails, I can celebrate a Packer victory. If they lose – well, hell, at least I called the game right.

Enjoy those bottles of Bud Select 55 – we’re going to need ‘em.

There was Aaron Rodgers’ fumble at the goal line.

There was a missed opportunity by coach Mike McCarthy to review Tony Gonzalez’s non-catch catch.

Then there was Matt Wihelm’s face mask.

The Packers’ 20-17 loss to the Falcons on Sunday was marred by missed opportunities by Green Bay. Rodgers’ fumble at the goal line late in the second quarter with the game tied 3-3 not only cost the Packers’ points, but the Falcons turned the gift into a touchdown on the ensuing possession. And on that touchdown drive, had McCarthy thrown the challenge flag on Gonzalez’s fourth-down reception, the Packers would have gotten the ball back on a turnover-on-downs because it appeared as though Gonzo didn’t secure the grab before the ball hit the ground. (In defense of McCarthy, had a quality replay been shown before the Falcons snapped the ball for the next play, he may have been more prone to challenge. That said, throw the damn flag anyway – it was a huge moment at that point in the game.)

Wihelm’s infraction came at the worst possible time. Rodgers had just led the Packers on an impressive 90-yard drive that consumed 6 minutes, 5 seconds off the clock and ended with a Jordy Nelson 10-yard touchdown reception with just 56 seconds remaining. But Wihelm grabbed returner Eric Weems’ face mask on the ensuing kickoff and it gave the Falcons the ball near mid-field. Then they drove the ball 21 yards to get into position for Matt Bryant’s 47-yard game-winning field goal.

But while the Packers missed opportunities, the Falcons took advantage of theirs. When Rodgers fumbled, they drove down the field and scored to build a 10-3 lead. When they got great field position from Wihelm’s face mask, Matt Ryan drove into field goal position for the win.

They ran the ball well (Michael Turner had 110 yards on 23 carries). Ryan (24 of 28 for 198 yards, 1 TD) was highly accurate. They held the Packers’ explosive offense to only 17 points. They didn’t turn the ball over. These are the things that good teams do when they’re facing a playoff contender like Green Bay. The Falcons certainly weren’t perfect, nor were they dominating. But they won a huge home game late in the year against a quality opponent, which is something Super Bowl contenders do. Did the Packers give them opportunities? Yes, but they took advantage of them and won.

That said, their pass rush was awful for most of the day. On Nelson’s touchdown reception, Rodgers had 62 minutes to find an open receiver because the Falcons only rushed three. When they sent more than four rushers, they had some success and at least forced Rodgers to make quick decisions. When they sent four or less, Rodgers picked them apart with ease.

The Packers aren’t a team the Falcons want to face again in the playoffs if they can’t figure out a way to drum up pressure by only rushing four. Either that, or defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder needs to get more creative because Rodgers had his way with a secondary that’s young and talented, but also prone to giving up yardage through the air.

Speaking of weaknesses, the Packers have to find a way to run the ball. I don’t care if they run the ball out of passing formations – they have to figure out a way to be balanced offensively. Rodgers is an elite quarterback but he can’t be their best running option, especially when they face better defensive backfields. It’s unfortunate that Ryan Grant got hurt, but they have to figure out a way to replace him. They’re just too one-dimensional.

But the Packers are a talented team, as are the Falcons. There’s no question. These are two even teams and this felt like a playoff game where every play matters. There’s a lot of garbage football being played in the NFL today, but the Packers and Falcons aren’t a part of that. These are two good teams.

Last week I wrote that there was a possibility that my college football picks would infect my NFL picks and naturally, that’s exactly what happened.

After going 9-3 the three weeks prior, I went 1-3 last Sunday as the Vikings, Panthers (thanks to two defensive touchdowns by the Ravens in the final minutes of the game) and Lions all laid eggs. My one saving grace was the Jaguars, who needed Maurice Jones-Drew to break off a 75-yard screen pass just to get them into scoring position in the final minutes. Awful – just awful.

Nothing but false confidence this week though, baby – let’s do this!

Packers (7-3) @ Falcons (8-2), 1:00PM ET
I really don’t like the side here because this game could go in one of several ways: Aaron Rodgers could consistently pick apart the Falcons’ leaky secondary for four quarters and the Packers could roll; the Falcons could take this game over on the ground and make Rodgers a non-factor; or it could be a back-and-forth nail-bitter that isn’t decided until the closing seconds (or overtime). For the record, I’ll go with Option C. But while everyone expects this game to be a shootout, I actually think both defenses will step up. There may not be a defense in the league that is playing better than Green Bay’s is right now and Atlanta (while prone to giving up a lot of yardage) is seventh in the league in points allowed (19.2). After weeks of putting games on Matt Ryan’s shoulders, I think the Falcons will turn to Michael Turner and the ground game in order to help neutralize Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 18-5 when they win the time of possession battle, so keeping it in Turner’s hands makes sense. With Atlanta trying to chew up the clock on the ground, I think this one falls under the posted total.
THE PICK: PACKERS/FALCONS UNDER 48

Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4), 1:00PM ET
The Giants are in the midst of one of their Tom Coughlin-led funks but I think they shake out of it today. The Jaguars have won three in a row but nobody outside Jacksonville fans believes that this team is a serious playoff contender. Opponents have been able to go into East Rutherford this year and beat the G-Men, but today will be a different story. The Jaguars’ pass defense is a major weakness that Eli Manning should exploit. But the key with the G-Men is turnovers. They’re 26th in turnovers this season at -0.8 and they haven’t been shy about turning the ball over multiple times a game. The Jaguars, however, rank 31st in turnover margin at -1.1 so New York’s biggest issue may be a non-factor. I like the Giants to roll.
THE PICK: GIANTS -7

Chiefs (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5), 4:05PM ET
I must be missing something here because it’s surprising to me that the Seahawks would be underdogs at home against a Kansas City team that has dropped two of its last three games. They crushed the Cardinals last week at home but a) they were playing the Cardinals and b) it was at home, where they’re 5-0 this year. On the road, the Chiefs have struggled (1-4) and Seattle is a tough road test for any opponent, no matter how poorly the Seahawks may be playing. The Hawks have dropped three of their last four games but they’re 3-1 at home this year and 3-0 when Charlie Whitehurst (who is atrocious) doesn’t start. Maybe I’m falling into a trap here, but I see the Seahawks taking care of business and I’ll gladly take the points in this one.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +2

Chargers (5-5) @ Colts (6-4), 8:20PM ET
It appears as though the public is drunk on San Diego Kool-Aid because the line in this game has gone from 3 to 1 throughout the week. Indy looks highly vulnerable for the first time in years, but they’ve been lights out at home this season. They’re 4-0 at the RCA Dome and have outscored opponents 110-57. Philip Rivers is playing at a MVP-like level but the Colts’ defense has been outstanding at the dome. Peyton Manning won’t lose two in a row with the Jaguars breathing down everyone’s necks and if the line stays under a field goal, I love this play.
THE PICK: COLTS -1

Season Record: 20-19-1

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The Scores Report has teamed up with Captain Morgan to help preview the NFL action this Thanksgiving Day weekend! Below are five games you don’t want to miss in Week 12.

The Top 5:

1. Packers (7-3) @ Falcons (8-2), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
You won’t find a better matchup all weekend. Two of the best teams in the NFC go head to head in what should be a high-scoring affair if Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan have anything to say about it. If Rodgers has time to throw, he could pick apart a secondary that plays a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense and has been known to give up big plays this year. On the other side, the Falcons’ stout offensive line will need to figure out a way to slow Clay Matthews in order to give Ryan time to find open receivers against a Green Bay pass defense that’s giving up just 211.3 yards per game this season. Could this be a potential NFC Championship Game preview?

2. Chargers (5-5) @ Colts (6-4), Sunday, 8:20PM ET
For the third week in a row, the Sunday Night Football matchup is a doozy. Following the likes of Patriots-Steelers and Giants-Eagles, the Chargers and Colts could put on a show in Indy this weekend. After losing three straight games in the middle of October, the Chargers have won three in a row and have climbed back into the hunt in the AFC West. Now they face a Colts team that has already lost four games this year, but none of those defeats coming at home. They’re a perfect 4-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium this year and you know Peyton Manning wants to get the taste of defeat out of his mouth after throwing an interception late in the fourth quarter against the Pats last Sunday. If the Chargers beat the Colts, it could turn the AFC playoff picture on its head.

3. Eagles (7-3) @ Bears (7-3), Sunday, 4:15PM ET
Time to find out whether or not the Bears are for real. Only one of their games this year came against a team with a winning record (Packers), unless you count their victory over a depleted Dolphins team (who was 5-4 at the time) last Thursday night. The Eagles have won three in a row and five of their last six and are now regarded as the team to beat in the NFC. Chicago could certainly quiet its critics with a win on Sunday, but beating a red-hot Michael Vick won’t be easy – even at home.

4. Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7), Thursday, 4:15PM ET
Thanks to the Cowboys’ recent two-game winning streak, not all of the games on Thanksgiving Day will be duds. Dallas has looked like a completely different team the past two weeks under interim coach Jason Garrett, but they’ll face a huge test this week when a hot New Orleans comes to town looking for revenge. The ‘Boys waxed the floor with the Saints last year at the Superdome and don’t think for a second that Drew Brees and Co. have forgotten that. Jon Kitna has played well the past two weeks but the Saints’ defense has a way of frustrating young and veteran quarterbacks alike. Look for the Saints to be ultra-aggressive and punch their opponent in the mouth right out of the gates. Will the ‘Boys respond?

5. Bucs (7-3) @ Ravens (7-3), 4:15PM ET
Tampa Bay still isn’t getting much respect but a win over the Ravens in Baltimore would certainly change that. The Ravens are a perfect 4-0 at home this year, however, and might be able to cool the white-hot Josh Freeman. That said, the Bucs now have a solid offensive core in Freeman, rookies Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, as well as tight end Kellen Winslow. Baltimore better be prepared because Tampa has been in nearly every game this year.

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But losing to Atlanta at home? That’s a game that a good team should win, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers aren’t a good team. Without Al Harris, Roddy White was able to work over Charles Woodson to the tune of eight catches for 132 yards and a TD in the first half. The Packers held him without a catch in the second half, but the Falcons were able to take advantage of great field position in the fourth quarter to score 10 points and seal the victory.

The truth is, even without Al Harris (and defensive end Cullen Jenkins), the Packers should have enough talent to beat the Falcons at home, but they simply didn’t play a clean game. Green Bay was penalized nine times for 97 yards, while the Falcons were penalized twice for just 15 yards. Time and again the Packers would shoot themselves in the foot with an ill-advised holding or facemask penalty.

Then, with his team trailing by three with 4:42 to play, facing a third-and-19 from its own 21 yard-line, Aaron Rodgers made a crucial mistake by trying to force the ball to Ruvell Martin. The Falcons scored on a Michael Turner 2-yard TD run to go up 10. If Rodgers had the presence of mind to throw the ball away, the Packers defense would have had a puncher’s chance at stopping Atlanta on their side of the field, and the Green Bay offense would have had at least one more chance to tie (or win) the game.

So it’s not Aaron Rodgers’ inexperience, injuries or a lack of discipline that has the Packers on a three-game losing streak; it’s a combination of the three. All in all, Rodgers has performed admirably this season, and injuries can’t really be controlled, so discipline is the only way that Green Bay can vastly improve over the next few weeks. (That, and the team suddenly figuring out how to run the ball again, though I’m not holding my breath.) Unfortunately, the road isn’t going to get easier. The Packers have to travel to Seattle to face an angry team that just got embarrassed against the Giants. Then they host the Colts before visiting the Titans and the Vikings. After that, they host the Bears.

Things could get very ugly very quickly.