Over the weekend, I outlined the Magic’s options with regard to Vince Carter, but it looks like GM Otis Smith is intent on keeping him around, assuming he’s being forthcoming (which is not his strong suit).

Carter is expected to remain with the Magic through next season, according to Smith. Carter, 33, fell short of being the go-to guy that many expected. “I think that Vince will tell you he’d like to have had a better season, but I’m not putting it on one guy. We failed as a unit,” Smith said. Carter has an expiring contract next season at $17 million — salary-cap friendly for other teams in a trade. But Smith said he “anticipates” Carter staying the entire season. Asked about the prospect of being dealt, Carter told the Sentinel, “I’m not worried about that. I know how the business works. I think I can stand on my body of work.”

When asked how close he thought the Magic were to winning a title, Smith responded:

General Manager Otis Smith put his thumb and index finger together and there was very little space left in between.

“Getting better for us, you’re talking one-eighth of an inch, not two feet,” Smith said Monday as the Magic met for the last time until training camp in October.

Hmm. I’m not sure how you can see this season as progress when you were nearly swept in the Eastern Conference Finals a year after losing 4-1 in the Finals with two of those losses coming in overtime. Unless, of course, you’re a general manager and want to spin the job you’ve done over the last year.

By nearly any measure, the Magic are further away from a title than they were a year ago and that has a lot to do with the addition of Vince Carter. For the sake of Magic fans everywhere, I sure hope that Smith is blowing smoke.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Celtics 95, Magic 92

Well, we can pretty much stick a fork in the Magic. When a team loses the first two games of the series at home, they aren’t coming back. They’re just not. It doesn’t happen. Well, maybe it’s happened once or twice, I don’t know. (Update: Teams that win the first two games on the road have won the series 22 of 25 times, per John Hollinger.) It would take a miracle…or maybe an injury.

So barring that, the Magic have to be left wondering what happened. They cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs, winning eight straight games, and ran into a brick wall in the form of the Boston Celtics. The difference in this series is that the C’s are simply a lot better than the Bobcats and Hawks. In fact, I think you could combine the rosters for the Bobcats and Hawks and Boston would still beat them in a seven-game series. That’s how good the Celtics are playing now.

Ray Allen lit it up in Game 1, but was quiet in Game 2. Paul Pierce picked up the slack, posting 28-5-5. Kevin Garnett (10-9) struggled shooting the ball once again, but there was Rajon Rondo with a timely 25-5-8. Quick — name five point guards that are better than Rondo right now. I bet you can’t.

Dwight Howard (30-8) played a lot better in Game 2, and even hit his free throws (12-of-17), but the rest of the Magic shot just 19-of-58 (33%) from the field for 62 points. Jameer Nelson (4-of-12), Vince Carter (5-of-15) and Rashard Lewis (2-of-6), who combined to make $42 million this season, shot a collective 11-of-33 from the field. At home.

I’ll wait until the Magic actually lose the series before I write their offseason piece, but at this point the entire region of Central Florida has to be regretting that Vince Carter move. In the final period, Carter went 2-of-5, turned the ball over once, and missed back-to-back free throws with 0:32 to play that would have cut Boston’s lead to one. Luckily for Otis Smith, Hedo Turkoglu’s play fell off a cliff in Toronto, so it’s not like Smith’s detractors can point to Turk as a no-brainer re-signing.

As for Boston, what has spearheaded this rejuvenation? To me, it’s a combination of several factors: 1) Rondo is now a Top 5 point guard, so it’s the Big 4 instead of the Big 3, and at least two are showing up every night, 2) Garnett’s knee looks a lot better, 3) they’re playing arguably the best defense in the league, and 4) someone on the bench — Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace or Glen Davis — seems to show up every game with an unexpected 8-15 points.

The Celtics are also made up of consummate professionals, so even though they have their ring, they’re going out every night and laying it on the line.

With the way both teams are playing, there’s a good chance we’re going to see a matchup of the last two Finals winners (Lakers, Celtics) and a rematch of the 2008 Finals.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

I think we can file this one under “obvious,” since the Magic didn’t re-sign Turkoglu, but it’s interesting nonetheless…

Per Real GM…

In a conversation with Blazers’ general manager Kevin Pritchard, [Magic GM Otis] Smith told Pritchard that he had “caught a break” with Turkoglu signing elsewhere and made it clear the Blazers “weren’t missing out on anything,” sources tell RealGM’s Alex Kennedy.

Smith didn’t feel that Turkoglu was worth the five-year, $50 million Portland was ready to spend.

Turkoglu is 30. If anyone thinks that he’s going to be worth $11-$12 million when he’s 34 or 35 and at the back end of this contract, I’d like to have some of what they’re smoking. But both the Blazers and the Raptors knew that in order to get Turkoglu to agree to a deal, it had to be a long-term contract.

Smith didn’t say this publicly, so I’m not going to blast him for throwing a former player under the bus. But it still seems odd that he’d be badmouthing Turkoglu — one of the main reasons the Magic made an appearance in the Finals — to other GMs around the league. When Jameer Nelson went down, Turkoglu took over the ballhandling duties and acted as a point forward. He ran countless pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, dished out a bunch of assists and hit several huge shots. Simply stated, Orlando wouldn’t have made it to the Finals without him.

Is he worth $10 million a year heading into his thirties? Probably not. But he’ll probably earn his keep for the first few years of that contract, and that’s all the Raptors are worried about right now.

Per TrueHoop…

Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday when the NBA informs teams what the 2009-10 salary cap will be.

The Orlando Magic’s recent trade for Vince Carter, who has a large salary and plays small forward — which is Turkoglu’s position — made it highly unlikely Turkoglu would be back in Orlando.

The Toronto Raptors expressed interest in Turkoglu, but were constrained by their other efforts to keep Shawn Marion and Carlos Delfino.

Turkoglu, a 6-10 forward from Turkey who played a prominent role in the Magic’s recent trip to the NBA Finals, had been looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million.

Five years and $50 million is a lot for Turkoglu, who is already 30 years-old and isn’t particularly efficient statistically. But his game is a pretty good fit for the Blazers, who want to space the court for Brandon Roy. Turkoglu is a good enough shooter to do that, plus he can handle the ball really well for a small forward, which help to take the pressure off of Roy. In fact, with Roy at the two and Turkoglu at the three, there’s enough ball handling there that the team doesn’t have to play with a traditional point guard. This may open up minutes for Rudy Fernandez, who was reportedly upset about the Blazers’ interest in Turkoglu.

The other thing to remember is that the Blazers’ cap space wasn’t going to last. They have to sign both Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to big extensions as soon as this summer and Greg Oden will be eligible for an extension next summer. It was sort of a “use it or lose” it scenario for the Blazers, and owner Paul Allen has never been afraid to spend. They added a versatile, experienced small forward who proved in the playoffs that he knows how to win. $10 million per season is a lot for Turkoglu, but his game should age pretty well, so at worst the Blazers should get quality play for the first three or four years of the deal.

What’s lost in all of this is the fact that Orlando will not be bringing back the core that went to the Finals this year. Chemistry is a rare quality and the Magic may rue the day that they brought in Vince Carter and waved goodbye to Turkoglu. After all, there were two overtime games in the first four, and the Lakers won both. Had those games gone the other way, the Magic would have led the series 3-1 with Game 5 at home to clinch the title. They didn’t need to tinker this much, and GM Otis Smith may eventually regret it.

All due respect to Denver’s Mark Warkentien, who won the 2009 NBA Executive of the Year Award, but Orlando GM Otis Smith deserves the honor. This is the problem with how the league hands out these awards at the end of the regular season — there’s no way to take the playoffs into account. Granted, it’s a regular season award, but in that case, wouldn’t Danny Ferry deserve it for pulling the trigger on the Mo Williams trade, which led to an All-Star nod for the guard and a 66-win season? Mitch Kupchak also deserves mention for his theft of Pau Gasol (now a year and a half old) along with mining Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown from other team’s benches.

Of course, Warkentien pulled arguably the best in-season move by sending Allen Iverson to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, which gave the Nuggets the toughness and defensive intensity to go from a Western Conference also-ran to a legitimate contender. I didn’t like his decision to give away Marcus Camby last summer in a salary dump, but in his defense, his signing of Chris Andersen offset that loss. Still, it would have been nice to have Camby on the roster against the Lakers, but there probably wouldn’t have been enough minutes for three centers. Warkentien rolled the dice that Nene was ready to explode and that Andersen could bring energy, rebounding and shotblocking off the bench, and it worked out, for the most part. Warkentien also signed Dahntay Jones, who eventually turned into (sort of) a starter for George Karl, and re-signed J.R. Smith.

Now let’s take a look at the job Otis Smith has done (from HoopsHype):

June 7 2007
Released head coach Billy Donovan and named Stan Van Gundy head coach.

February 19 2009
Traded forward Brian Cook to the Houston Rockets for guard Rafer Alston. Traded center Adonal Foyle and guard Mike Wilks to the Memphis Grizzlies.

So, in the last two years, Smith has 1) locked up his two cornerstones (Howard and Nelson) to long term contracts, 2) traded for the versatile Lewis, who wreaked havoc in the Cleveland series, 3) found two starter-quality perimeter players in the draft (Lee) and free agency (Pietrus), 4) found a couple of hard-nosed rotation guys in the draft (Gortat) and free agency (Johnson), 5) pulled off a deal for Rafer Alston when Nelson went down, and 6) found a guy to coach them all up (SVG) after Billy Donovan left the franchise at the altar.

Smith might be a victim of his own reputation. Prior to Lee, he didn’t do well in the draft (Fran Vasquez and Travis Diener in 2005; J.J. Redick and James Augustine in 2006; Reyshawn Terry in 2007), fell for Darko Milicic’s potential in 2006, and traded away Trevor Ariza in 2007.

Bill Simmons writes:

Did Otis Smith plan on this? When he overpaid Lewis, was he thinking, “I need to find a shooter to spread the floor for Dwight?” Was he thinking, “I am going to revolutionize basketball and I need Lewis to help me do it?” Or was he just like a drunk guy at an auction throwing out some insane dollars to make sure he won? I am leaning toward the third scenario, and here’s why: Smith basically gave away Trevor Ariza for Brian Cook and Mo Evans last year. Does Cook make any sense for this ’09 Magic team? Of course not. Does Ariza? Of course. That’s what makes me think Smith stumbled into it. Revolutionary basketball geniuses don’t throw cap space away or give up building blocks for no reason.

I think I’ve written this about fifty times over the past three weeks, but the Magic are built in the same mold as the Hakeem Olajuwon-era Houston Rockets in that they have a dominant big man (who is good enough to command a double team) and have surrounded him with a bunch of shooters. Where the Magic lineup differs from those Houston teams is at power forward, where Lewis’ sharpshooting has replaced Otis Thorpe’s strength and rebounding. The Rockets surrounded Olajuwon with three shooters, while the Magic have gone one step further and have surrounded Howard with four.

Orlando can get away with this because the league is getting smaller. True centers are a rare breed, and power forwards are going from 6’10″ or 6’11″ rebounding/post-up beasts to 6’8″ or 6’9″ versatile forwards with a face-up game. Simmons says this is a result of expansion (and a dilution of the overall talent), but it has more to do with the infusion of international players (who prefer to face up) and a tightening of the amount of contact that defenders can lay on the dribbler. In short, the power forward has become a perimeter player, and other than Dirk Nowitzki, Lewis is about as good of a perimeter power forward as there is in the NBA. (Kevin Garnett, David West, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Antawn Jamison and LaMarcus Aldridge are all power forwards with face-up games, but none of them stretch a defense quite like Nowitzki and Lewis can.)

In all honesty, I still think Smith overpaid for Lewis. I don’t know that there was another team in the running, but at that price tag ($110 million), I doubt it. Lewis should be getting $11-$13 million a season, not the $16-$21 million he’ll be making over the next five years. Still, you can’t argue with the results. The Magic are in the Finals and Lewis is a big reason why.

As for Ariza, which is Simmons’ trump card, let’s not forget — the guy couldn’t shoot a lick when he was in Orlando. He developed his long ball in L.A. and that is one reason why he’s flourishing there. Smith knew he needed shooters at every position other than center, so he wanted a swingman who could play some defense, get to the rim, and be a threat from long range. Ariza was capable in the first two areas, but while in Orlando he showed no signs of becoming a decent three point shooter. Smith went out and signed Pietrus, who was able to (sort of) cover LeBron one-on-one and nail 47% of his threes in the series (and 35% on the year). He’s also athletic enough to get to the rim when he’s crowded on the perimeter. Pietrus is what Smith wanted Ariza to be.

Besides, Simmons should take it easy on Smith. Remember when his favorite GM, Danny Ainge, passed on Brandon Roy in the ’06 Draft so he could acquire Sebastian Telfair from the Blazers? They can’t all be beauties. Ainge went on to win this award in the 2007-08 season. And Cook…on the surface, he didn’t look to be as bad of a fit as he turned out to be. He has size and can shoot it, so Smith might have seen a potential Lewis, Jr. on the horizon. Besides, he turned Cook into Alston after Nelson went down, which was key in getting the Magic to the Finals.

So, even though he didn’t have a splashy move like Iverson-for-Billups, Smith deserves this honor, at least in my book.