With the news that David West plans to test free agency once a new CBA is finalized (whenever that is), the Hornets have two choices: 1) let him walk and further hurt their chances of re-signing Chris Paul, or 2) overpay to keep West. Let’s assume they do the pragmatic thing and let him walk. At that point, the franchise needs to take the long-term view and try to rebuild. Paul will most likely leave at the end of the season, so the Hornets should try to get as much as they can while they can, or else they’ll end up like the Cavs or the Raptors, watching their star walk away with very little to show for it.

With that in mind, here are five semi-reasonable trade offers for Chris Paul. I use the phrase ‘semi-reasonable’ because New Orleans fans need to keep their expectations in check — teams are never able to get equal value for their disgruntled/one-foot-out-the-door stars.

1. Thunder trade Russell Westbrook, Cole Aldrich, Thabo Sefolosha and Nate Robinson for CP3.
See this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. The key to this trade is obviously Westbrook — a young All-Star who has proven that he’s not ready to lead the Thunder, who could absolutely take over the Western Conference if they could get heady, consistent point guard play. Westbrook is only 22, and could eventually develop into a top tier point guard, but right now he doesn’t know how to run a team. He turns the ball over way too much and his shot selection in crunch time is suspect at best. The Thunder shouldn’t wait for him to develop; with the Lakers and Spurs on the decline and Dirk Nowitzki getting older, the time is now for OKC. On the flip side, the Hornets have the luxury of letting him develop. Who knows, maybe he turns into a top 10 player. Even if he has plateaued, a 22-year-old All-Star is not a bad haul for CP3, who is likely out the door next summer. Aldrich and Sefolosha sweeten the deal a little bit, balance the salaries out, and give the Hornets a couple of young rotation players. As for Paul’s contract situation, call me crazy, but I think he signs a long-term deal given the opportunity to play with Kevin Durant and James Harden.

2. Celtics trade Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic for CP3 and Aaron Gray.
See this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. This is a ‘one last run’ move for the Celtics, who aren’t going to get past the Heat and Bulls with their current lineup. Paul adds a new dimension to the Celtics offense and would be deadly in the pick-and-pop with Kevin Garnett. Plus, he’d give the Celtics a guy to build around once they decide to part ways with KG and Ray Allen, allowing Paul Pierce to fill a more complimentary role. (This assumes that Paul would be willing to re-up with the Celtics.) For the Hornets, they get an All-Star point guard who has had more ups than downs, along with a versatile forward (Green) who has proven he can score 16+ a game.

3. Clippers trade Eric Gordon, Mo Williams and the T-Wolves’ unprotected 2012 first round draft pick for CP3.
See this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. Gordon developed into a 22 ppg scorer in just his third season in the league. Williams is a capable point guard (and former All-Star), but the other key to this trade is the Wolves’ unprotected 2012 first round pick that the Clippers own as part of the Marko Jaric trade. (That’s right, the T-Wolves are still paying for Marko Jaric.) With the direction Minnesota is headed, the pick is likely to be in the top 5, so the Hornets would likely get another player with star potential in the Draft. The Clippers would be able to pair CP3 with Blake Griffin, but the question is would there be enough talent on the roster to convince both players to re-up? Plus, there’s the Donald Sterling Factor.

4. Grizzlies trade Rudy Gay and Mike Conley for CP3.
See this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. The Grizzlies proved that they could win without Gay, but struggled in crunch time because they didn’t have a playmaker on the perimeter. Paul would fit in well with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol and maybe he’d be able to coax better production out of O.J. Mayo as well. The Hornets would get a very good small forward in Gay (20-6-3, 40% 3PT) along with an improving point guard (Conley) to replace Paul. The problem with this trade is Paul’s willingness to sign a long-term deal. It’s not likely that he’s going to want to stay in Memphis for the next five years.

5. Hawks trade Josh Smith and Jeff Teague for CP3.
See this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. Perhaps Atlanta would need to include a first round pick to sweeten the deal, but Smith is a borderline All-Star (and possibly Atlanta’s best player) and Teague played very well when given the keys in the Playoffs. The Hawks would have one of the best backcourts in the league in Paul and Joe Johnson, and Al Horford is more than capable of hitting jumpers off the pick-and-pop. The Hornets would get a supremely talented power forward to replace David West and Teague could emerge as a starting-caliber point guard in a year or two.

In the end, the Hornets probably won’t make a bold trade including Paul, but the longer they wait, the worse off they’ll be. The Nuggets did all right with the Carmelo trade, but it nearly destroyed their season.

In the interest of full disclosure, I’ve been waiting to write this piece for the last couple of weeks. With the way that the Thunder had been closing games, I knew it was just a matter of time before they’d be eliminated from the Playoffs and I have been thinking about the different directions that the franchise can go from here.

After watching both the Memphis and Dallas series, I have come to this conclusion: Oklahoma City can not win a title with Russell Westbrook at the point.

It’s not that he’s not a good player. He is. He’s just not a point guard. People say that he has come a long way in his three seasons, but he sure didn’t show it in the last two series. Take a look at his numbers in the fourth quarter (and overtime) of all the games against Dallas and Memphis:

Westbrook was benched for one fourth quarter against the Mavs, so he played four 4th quarters and one overtime against Dallas. I threw out Game 5 against the Grizzlies because it wasn’t close in the 4th quarter, and I’m interested in how he plays with the game on the line. In total, he played six 4th quarters and four overtimes against Memphis. That adds up to 145 potential minutes and Westbrook played a majority of them. That many minutes converts to three full games (145/48 = 3.02), so I divided his totals by three to give us a rough idea of what his per game averages would have been if we only counted his 4th quarter and overtime numbers.

His totals (27.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists) are fairly impressive, but his shooting percentages (37% 2P, 22% 3P) are not. He did do a great job of getting to the line (12.3) and made them when he got there, at least against the Grizzlies. He turned the ball over at an extraordinary rate (7.3 per “game”). His assist-to-turnover ratio (0.59) was absolutely brutal. To put this in perspective, a ratio of 2.5 is average for a point guard, while the best ones are usually over 3.0.

He’s not a point guard. This much is clear. In his career, he has played 269 games at the position and proved against the Grizzlies and the Mavs that he’s not consistently able to be the floor general that a championship-caliber team needs.

So what does OKC do with him? The way I see it, they have two options:

1. Move him to off guard.
He’s a little undersized at 6’3″, but with his long arms and athletic ability, he could defend most opposing shooting guards. Also, for a “shooting” guard, he’s not a very good shooter (33% 3P on the season), but Dwyane Wade isn’t very accurate from distance and he makes it work.

In my mind, Westbrook’s best way forward is to follow in Wade’s shoes. Wade isn’t a point guard either, and he has figured out a way to play off guard even though he’s a little undersized.

The problem with moving Westbrook to the ‘two’ is that it’s going to impact James Harden, who is a prototypical off guard. Harden would either stay on the bench (he’s too good for that) or he would have to play small forward, where he would be undersized. That would push Durant to the ‘four’ and he’s not strong enough right now to play power forward on a consistent basis.

This leads me to option 2 for Westbrook…

2. Trade him.
If I were GM Sam Presti, I’d get the Hornets on the line and see if they’d be willing to give up Chris Paul for Westbrook. The Hornets may be feeling the pressure to do something with Paul since he’s entering the final year of his contract and may be on his way out of town. If they don’t trade him and he signs elsewhere, it would be disastrous. It’s very tough to get equal value for a superstar, but with all his flaws, Westbrook is an All-Star and All-NBA performer who could make a killing as an off guard on the right team. Perhaps New Orleans would go for a package that would include Westbrook, Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson’s expiring contract. (See it in the ESPN Trade Machine.)

If the Hornets decline to trade Paul, then I’d ring up the Nets and see if they would do the same deal for Deron Williams, who is in a similar position (contract-wise) as Paul. Both the Hornets and Nets have to feel the pressure with these two point guards, and if the Thunder played the two teams off of each other, I bet someone would bite.

Imagine a lineup of Paul (or Williams), Harden, Durant, Collison and Ibaka for the next five years! I have no inside info, but I suspect both Paul and Williams would love to join the Thunder simply because they’ll have a chance to contend for a title for the next several years. And don’t forget that Paul is familiar with OKC since the Hornets played there (and drew great crowds) while New Orleans was recovering from Hurricane Katrina.

Obviously, Westbrook would have to agree to an extension as part of the trade, as would Paul/Williams. Both sides will need to come away from the trade with the peace of mind that their new star is locked up for the long term.

Is a Westbrook trade going to happen? Probably not, but that’s the direction I would go if I were in charge. The current makeup of the roster cannot accommodate his move to off guard and there’s no one to take over the point even if he did. (Eric Maynor is a solid backup, but he’s just that…a backup.) A trade would bring in an impact point guard and free up all those minutes for Harden at the two.

The NY Daily News has a quote from an unnamed Thunder vet that is bound to stir up some controversy.

As one Thunder veteran said, privately, “He thinks he’s better than Kevin Durant.”

Not only that, but Westbrook has the backing of Thunder GM Sam Presti, who made a name for himself with his drafting of Westbrook with the fourth pick in 2008. Presti’s micromanagement behind the scenes has caused some friction between the head of the front office and his coaches, but Brooks didn’t pay any attention to that when he saw that Maynor was his best option to even the series.

Who is this veteran? And why is he dropping nuggets like this while the Thunder are in the middle of a knock-down, drag-out playoff series with the Mavs? Perhaps it’s a former player, not someone currently on the roster.

The thing that interests me about this story is the take of CBS writer Royce Young, who had this to say about Westbrook’s belief in his ability.

But when you’re an All-Star, a second-team All-NBA player that’s as confident in yourself as Westbrook, would you really not think you’re better than Durant. Not us in the general public here. We all know Durant is better. In terms of Westbrook, is it really so bad to think that? In fact, isn’t it probably a good thing?

No, it’s not a good thing. The best teams usually have players that know their roles. Pau Gasol doesn’t think he’s better than Kobe, and Kevin Garnett doesn’t think he should be shooting the ball instead of Paul Pierce. The last really great team to have a pecking order issue was the Shaq/Kobe-era Lakers, and look what happened to them. When Kobe accepted his role, the duo was able to win three straight titles. As soon as he started to try to take over alpha dog status, they crashed and burned in the Finals against a much more cohesive Detroit Pistons team.

If Westbrook does in fact think he’s better than Durant, then there’s trouble brewing in OKC. This isn’t the case of a young upstart trying to take the mantle from an established vet. These are two young players that will be playing with each other for a while, and if Westbrook can’t accept his role as second fiddle, then there are going to be problems down the line.

Scratch that — there might be problems right now.

Last night, Thunder head coach Scott Brooks took Westbrook out of the game with 0:28 remaining in the third quarter. He had just turned the ball over and committed a foul, giving the Mavs two free throws. Brooks exchanged words with Westbrook as he came to the bench, and Westbrook even stopped and turned to say something extra to his coach. For the next couple of minutes, he could be seen talking to no one in particular on the bench and he looked none too happy about taking a seat.

Brooks stuck with Eric Maynor for the entire fourth quarter and the Thunder went on to win 106-100. In the final period, Maynor went 2-for-3 from the field (four points), with one assist and one rebound. He did contribute to one turnover, a shot clock violation, but otherwise took care of the ball and got OKC into its offense. It wasn’t so much about Maynor’s numbers as it was about how the unit (Maynor-Daequan Cook-James Harden-Kevin Durant-Nick Collison) was clicking.

Brooks has finished games with Maynor in the past, but it’s rare, and I don’t remember it happening in the playoffs. It’s not uncommon for coaches to go with a bench player over a starter if the bench player has it going, but it’s not common for a coach to bench an All-Star for the entire fourth quarter of a playoff game.

But that’s where Westbrook’s game is at this point. He has been up-and-down, especially in crunch time. Brooks never knows what he’s going to get from his “point guard.” (I put that in quotes because Westbrook really isn’t a point guard, he’s just the de facto point guard for the Thunder.) I’ve railed on his game throughout the postseason. The Thunder aren’t still playing because of him — they’re still playing despite him. For every one of his sublime games, like his 14-assist triple-double against the Grizzlies in Game 7, he has two or three clunkers where he turns the ball over repeatedly and jacks up sketchy shots in the clutch.

For his part, he did congratulate his teammates during the fourth quarter and seemed relatively involved in the game. From what I could tell, he was up and cheering and wasn’t sitting on the bench sulking about his predicament. That’s important, because Thursday’s benching is only a big deal if Westbrook makes it a big deal. If he becomes (more) moody or if he lets it impact his relationship with his head coach, then it will rear it’s ugly head in the future when the chips are down.

I didn’t see a lot of Westbrook in his rookie season, but the punditry has been saying that h has “come a long way” in becoming a point guard. If that’s the case, I shudder to think about his decision-making in his rookie season. His assist-to-turnover ratio was dreadful (1.61) in his first year, got a lot better in his second season (2.42), then dipped in his third season (2.10). In the playoffs, his A/TO ratio is 1.48 — so tell me, how far has he really come?

I may be dead wrong, but I don’t think the Thunder can win a title this year with Westbrook at the point.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder drafted James Harden #3 overall in the 2009 draft, it was a sign that the team had confidence in Russell Westbrook as their point guard of the future. After all, the 2009 draft was loaded with point guards (Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and Darren Collison, to name a few), but the Thunder elected to go with a shooting guard instead.

After the 2009-10 season, while Tyreke Evans was winning Rookie of the Year, and while Jennings, Curry, Collison and Taj Gibson were joining Evans on the All-Rookie First Team, Harden was something of a disappointment. He was an important player in the Thunder rotation, but he came off the bench and could only muster an All-Rookie Second Team nod. It was a solid if unspectacular rookie season.

Now, with the Thunder in the Western Conference Playoffs, Harden is playing 31+ minutes off the OKC bench and is often closing out games. He’s like Manu Ginobili — he’s not a starter, but he’s a closer, and that’s what matters.

It got me wondering — how does Harden’s playoff performance (12-5-4 on 46% shooting) stack up with other guards his age (21)?

Below you’ll find a table with the Per 36 Minute stats of the Top 30 guards in Efficiency Per Game (EPG is also normalized to 36 minutes).

Keep in mind that all of these players were 21 years old on February 1 of the season in question and the data only goes back to the 1982-83 season. I only included players that appeared in at least 50 games during the season to eliminate the riffraff.

I included both Harden’s regular season stats (#17) and his 2011 playoff stats (#6). As you can see, both sets of numbers should be encouraging for Harden supporters. His efficiency is up in the playoffs because he’s shooting at a higher percentage and is tallying more rebounds and assists.

If Playoffs James Harden is the real James Harden, then he has star written all over him. Even if his regular season numbers are more indicative of his ability, he’s still going to be a solid starter in the NBA for most of his career.

I’ve been hard on Russell Westbrook over the past several games (as has most of the national media), but let’s give the guy credit. His brand of shoot-first point guard play was good enough to get Oklahoma City a 133-123 triple-overtime, series-tying win on Monday night.

In the last five minutes of regulation and the three overtime periods, Westbrook went 6-for-11 from the field with two assists and one turnover, and went 3-for-3 from the free throw line. He wasn’t perfect, but no one is expecting him to be. This is solid production from a player who has struggled mightily down the stretch in this series. In addition to the 40 points, he had five rebounds, five assists, three steals, two blocks and three turnovers.

It doesn’t hurt that he has Kevin Durant on his team either. Durant posted 35 points, 13 rebounds and four steals in the win, and scored 13 points in the final 20 minutes of the game.

What’s worrisome for the Thunder is that they had a 10-point lead with 5:11 to play and went into overtime. Then they had a seven-point with 1:54 to play in the first overtime, and blew that too. It wasn’t until the third overtime (and after a series of blown bunnies by the Grizzlies), that OKC was finally able to close out the game.

Speaking of blown bunnies, what happened to Zach Randolph’s touch around the basket? He scored 34 points, but was only 9-of-25 from the field and missed a series of close shots down the stretch.

I have been harping about Russell Westbrook’s play at the point for the last few games and it’s nice to hear that Bill Simmons is seeing the same things I am. Here is his take on the Westbrook/Durant dynamic as part of his salute to “The Wire.”

Sorry, I’m not done with Westbrook yet. Oklahoma City has enough talent to win the 2011 title — it’s sitting right there for them — but it’s going to hinge on how Westbrook runs the show. There’s a game beyond the f**king game and I don’t think he can totally see it yet. He’s learning on the fly. A crash course, if you will. I don’t trust him yet. Stephon Marbury never found that balance between scoring and creating; Allen Iverson only found it when they moved him off the ball. Can Westbrook find it on the fly? Either way, Durant’s unreal fourth quarter in Game 5 was the best reality check possible: He basically hired Brother Mouzone and Omar to shoot Stringer Westbrook. We’ll see if he comes back from the dead.

That reminds me, I thought Chuck and Kenny did a spectacular job of breaking down Westbrook’s struggles in Game 5 — he took some heat for the first time (for Game 4) and it clearly affected him, but as Kenny pointed out (I’m paraphrasing), if you want to be great, you need to learn how to handle being the hero and being the goat. That’s the final stage for a basketball player. Durant struggled earlier in the season, took some heat, questioned himself a little, and ultimately, it made him stronger. Now it’s Westbrook’s turn. To be continued.

The Thunder aren’t going to beat the Grizzlies (who are simply on a mission right now) if Westbrook doesn’t learn how to play point guard on the fly. He seemingly hasn’t learned how to exercise good shot selection or set his teammates up in three years, so it’s doubtful that he’s going to be able to learn it in three games.