2009 College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions

Last week was bitter sweet as I went 4-0 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread. Keep in mind that I try to only pick top 25 games, so they’re much, much harder to predict. Like, much harder. (Or at least that’s my excuse anyway.)

No. 8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30PM ET
Both of these SEC teams will be looking to finish the 2009 season strong when they square off this Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels snapped a six-game losing streak to the Tigers last season but they haven’t won at home in his series since 1998. The public seems high on Ole Miss after the Rebs hammered Tennessee last Saturday, but keep in mind that the Vols were in the midst of some turmoil after three of their players were arrested for attempted armed robbery last week. Dexter McCluster went off on Tennessee for 282 yards and four touchdowns, but he’ll have a hard time repeating that effort against a stout LSU front seven. Something tells me that Les Miles’ team is still pissed off about what happened two weeks again in Tuscaloosa and will play this week with passion. I see a small upset for the Tigers and an outright win.
Odds: Ole Miss –4.5.
Prediction: LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

No. 25 California at No. 17 Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Stanford is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. The Cardinal have scored 106 points combined against Oregon and USC the past two weeks and senior running back Toby Gerhart has almost been unstoppable. Without running back Jahvid Best, Cal squeaked by Arizona last week, 24-16. With Best sidelined again this Saturday, many expect Stanford to roll but don’t forget that Cal has the 19th best run defense in the nation and is capable of containing Gerhart and keeping things close. Quarterback Kevin Riley might be able to take advantage of a Stanford secondary that has been inconsistent this season, although without the threat of a running game the Bears’ offense might become too one-dimensional in the second half. I think Stanford will pull out the victory but this game will be closer than people think.
Odds: Stanford –7.5.
Prediction: Stanford 35, Cal 31.

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2009 BCS Bowl Projections Version 1.0

SI.com’s Stewart Mandel compiled his projections for all 34 bowl matchups and this is how things shook out in the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

Is it just me or are those some pretty lousy matchups outside of the BCS title game (Colt McCoy vs. ‘Bama’s defense is intriguing, I don’t care what anyone says)? I’m not saying that those teams aren’t deserving of those bowls, but I’m not entirely sure I’d like to see Iowa play Boise in one of the “big” bowls.

That said, a Georgia Tech-TCU matchup would be intriguing because I would love to see the Horned Frogs try and defense the Jackets’ potent triple-option. TCU has one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the nation and it would be a thrill to watch them try and contain Jonathan Dwyer for four quarters.

Something tells me an Ohio State-Oregon matchup wouldn’t be that bad either outside of the fact that the Buckeyes always lay duds in bowl games. OSU has a solid defense, although Jeremiah Masoli and company might tear them to pieces.

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from Mandel’s projections (outside of the fact that he has ‘Bama beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game, that is) is that he predicts Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati in two weeks. The Bearcats can light up a scoreboard, but teams that can run straight at their defense have had success and the Panthers might be able to do that when the two teams square off next Saturday for the top spot in the Big East.’

For those of you who are like me that would rather see a playoff system determine the champion in college football, check out John Paulsen’s breakdown of how a postseason would look like this season.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

NFL Week 9 ROY Power Rankings

The first three players on this list were on bye last week, so we have to hold their places. Other than that, there have been quite a few impressive rookie performances this year so far…

1. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—Seven picks leads all rookies and earned Byrd NFL defensive rookie of the month for October. What does he do for an encore? Vince Young might find out this Sunday in Nashville.

2. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—He may have learned that the NFC West is not the Big Ten, but that hasn’t stopped Laurinaitis from making a lot of tackles. His 46 solo tackles leads all NFL rookies.

3. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings—One of the reasons Brad Childress is in line for coach of the year is that he foresaw Brett Favre and Percy Harvin making beautiful music together on the field, despite what all the critics were saying.

4. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles—His 115 all-purpose yards against Dallas was, dare we say it? Westbrook-esque.

5. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles—As if opposing defensive coordinators were having trouble sleeping while scheming for DeSean Jackson, now they have this kid to worry about too.

Honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks, Giants; Knowshon Moreno, Broncos; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Michael Oher, Ravens; Mike Wallace, Steelers

Blogging the Bloggers: Sosa, Ohio State throwbacks & NFL Midseason Awards

- What the hell has happened to Sammy Sosa? This photo terrifies me.

- Pro Football Talk.com is claiming that ESPN.com plagiarized them on the Joey Porter/Tom Brady story. And they say bloggers are the ones stealing stories, geesh.

- Get a sneak peak at what Ohio State’s throwback uniforms will look like this Saturday against Penn State, thanks to SPORTSbyBROOKS.com.

- Here are five MMA Fighters who went out on top, courtesy of CagePotato.com.

- MoonDog Sports says that NFL players need to shut up and play already.

- YARDBARKER hands out their NFL Midseason Awards.

- DEADSPIN has some updates on the Sean Sailsbury lawsuit.

Most disappointing college football teams of 2009

FOX Sports.com ranked the 10 most disappointing teams of 2009:

1. USC
A loss to Washington was the beginning of the end. Still, we’ve almost come to expect the Trojans to lose one game every year that they shouldn’t. While USC was slightly favored to beat Oregon, the manner in which they lost was downright ugly. Pete Carroll’s signature unit — the defense — got embarrassed by the Ducks. Sure, USC had to replace eight defensive players who are now playing on Sundays, but the Trojans always have reloaded, and the expectations were high this year despite those defensive losses. USC fans accustomed to “settling” for the Rose Bowl may need to aim a little lower.

2. Virginia Tech
The class of the ACC is now fighting Miami for third place in the Coastal division behind Duke and Georgia Tech. Let that sink that in. The Hokies’ consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina have probably ended their Orange Bowl dreams. Either Beamer Ball isn’t working anymore or parity in the ACC has finally caught up to Virginia Tech. Either way, 2009 will be a major disappointment for Gobbler Nation.

3. Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ loss to USC wasn’t that shocking, but their loss to Purdue was. With Navy, USC, Toledo and New Mexico State on their non-conference schedule, the expectations of a special season were pretty high in Columbus. But plenty of fans are starting to question whether Tressel’s offense will work with Terrelle Pryor as quarterback. With Penn State, Iowa and an imploding Michigan still left on the Buckeyes’ schedule, Ohio State fans should start making travel plans for Tampa, site of the Outback Bowl. Now.

A lot of people thought they were overrated coming into the season, but I think Ole Miss (which ranks No. 7 on FOX’s list) should be in the top 5. I know they lost a couple of key defenders from last year’s squad, but for the Rebels to currently be 5-3 is surprising to say the least.

Big Ten haters aren’t surprised, but Ohio State wasn’t expected to be this inconsistent either. Some thought that Terrelle Pryor would progress as a passer and lead the Buckeyes to at least a Big Ten title, but he’s actually regressed and now people are questioning whether or not he should remain OSU’s starting quarterback.

Personally, I’m not shocked that the Trojans are where they are right now with a freshman quarterback. They always lose a game every year that they’re not supposed to and the writing was on the wall last week for them in Eugene. Oregon is playing better football right now and is tough to beat at home.

2009 College Football Week 10 Point Spreads & Odds

Along with a complete list of point spreads and odds for Week 10’s action in college football, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups:

No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
After losing to Florida in Baton Rouge three weeks ago, LSU has rattled off two wins in impressive fashion. While Auburn and Tulane aren’t powerhouse opponents, the Tigers combined to score 73 points in those games and showed an offensive pulse. But can they do the same against a worthy defensive opponent like Alabama? The Tigers only mustered three points against the Gators and will certainly have their hands full trying to move the ball against a Tide defense that ranks No. 4 in the nation and should be well rested coming off a bye.
Odds: Alabama –7.5.

No. 8 Oregon at Stanford, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the nation right now, but will they suffer a letdown after beating No. 5 USC last week? Stanford has been solid at home this year, beating previously ranked Washington 34-14, UCLA 24-16 and a decent Arizona State team 33-14. They had defensive troubles in road losses to Oregon State and Arizona this season (and also lost to a pesky Wake Forest team earlier in the year), but otherwise the Cardinal has been competitive. The Ducks’ offensive attack is firing on all cylinders right now, but the game this week in Stanford is far from a gimmie.
Odds: Oregon -6.

No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
If either of these teams wants to keep Iowa in their sites in the Big Ten, a win is a must this Saturday in University Park. Since his brutal display in Purdue three weeks ago, Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has looked better the past two weeks. But Minnesota and New Mexico State don’t have the kind of defensive prowess that Penn State has and Pryor could be in for a long day on Saturday. The Lions have been outstanding since their loss to Iowa in late September, rattling off five straight wins while beating opponents by a 176-43 margin. The Buckeyes’ defense should be up for the challenge, but will Pryor?
Odds: Penn State –4.

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NFL Week 7 ROY Power Rankings

A tougher award to measure, as no one has really stepped up to be among the NFL’s stat leaders. Well, unless you consider LB James Laurinaitis from Ohio State.

1. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—45 tackles to date and had another interception against the Jaguars last Sunday. This kid is playing lights out and you have to believe he’s been invited to Steve Spagnuolo’s house for Thanksgiving.

2. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos—He didn’t do much against the Chargers, but he didn’t really have to with the Eddie Royal kick return show.

3. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants—It was in garbage time mostly, but Nicks racked up 114 yards and a TD against the Saints, fitting in like a veteran on a team that desperately needed receiver help going into 2009.

4. Michael Oher, Baltimore Ravens—It’s hard to measure O-linemen, but after a nice job against Antwan Odom, Oher got into a pissing match with Jared Allen last Sunday. He gets props just for that.

5. Ryan Succop, Kansas City Chiefs—Even if he hasn’t had many chances, Succop has only missed one field goal, that from beyond 50.

Honorable mention: Matthew Stafford, Lions

Pryor rebounds as Ohio State beats Minnesota

After his dismal effort last week in a loss at Purdue, Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor rebounded as the Buckeyes trounced Minnesota 38-7 on Saturday.

Outside of his 62-yard touchdown pass to DeVier Posey early in the second quarter, Pryor looked as bad in the first half as he did against Purdue. He underthrew open receivers, forced passes into coverage and threw an interception right before half that killed a potential scoring drive for the Buckeyes.

But in the second half, Pryor used his legs to move the chains and his decision-making was much better. On one play in particular, he escaped a potential sack and once he scrambled towards the sideline, he threw the ball away instead of forcing it to a covered receiver. He finished 13-of-25 for 239 yards, two touchdowns and the one interception, while also rushing for 104 yards on 15 carries.

This performance certainly doesn’t erase how bad Pryor has looked at times this season, but maybe the game will give him confidence going forward. Maybe he did learn something from the loss to Purdue last week.

Minnesota gave Ohio State so many opportunities in this game. They turned the ball over four times, which included fumbling the opening kickoff of the second half. Without receiver Eric Decker, the Golden Gophers are absolutely hapless offensively.

LeBron reaches out to Terrelle Pryor

Cleveland Cavs’ star LeBron James has recently started reaching out to Ohio State sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who has come under criticism lately after his poor performance in the Buckeyes’ loss to Purdue last Saturday.

From ESPN.com:

“[I'm] trying to mentor him and get him through ‘life in the spotlight,’ which I’ve been through,” James said after a preseason game in Columbus on Wednesday night.

James said he has been speaking to Pryor on the phone in recent weeks to try to help him deal with celebrity at a young age. James knows something about that, since he appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated under the headline “The Chosen One” while he was still in high school in Akron, Ohio.

“Being that No. 1 guy, how do you adjust to it and how do you get through it and still perform at a high level?” James said. “Sometimes it can be very difficult on [a young athlete]. I’m trying to be that guy who can really help him get through a lot of situations which he’s never seen before but now he’s seeing and understanding.”

Pryor said the bad game at Purdue had helped open his eyes.

“That opened me up to the world and opened me up to myself and who I am as a person,” Pryor said. “I think maybe that was the best thing to happen to us last week. Maybe we’ll learn from it. We’re having real good practices, and we’re just trying to get the fans back on our side.”

Pryor seems to have a good head on his shoulders and generally wants to excel at the collegiate level. Hopefully he doesn’t succumb to the pressure and criticism of the media and tanks the rest of his career because he has plenty of athletic talent.

This is when Jim Tressel needs to step up and do everything he can throughout the week and on Saturdays to ensure that Pryor succeeds. If that means scaling back the playbook and giving Pryor only 10 plays to master, then so be it. Spreading out the offense and trying to fit a round peg in a square hole won’t work and Pryor will only continue to struggle.

It’s great that a star like LeBron is willing to help a student athlete out. But he isn’t going to be around Pryor all the time like Tressel is. Maybe Tressel’s future at Ohio State should be tied to how Pryor develops over the next couple years. (If it isn’t already, that is.)

Terrelle Pryor’s HS coach: Tressel should let him run more

Ohio State sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor’s high school coach doesn’t like the way Jim Tressel is utilizing his former star.

From ESPN.com:

“They need Terrelle to run more,” former Jeannette (Pa.) High School coach Ray Reitz said. “They’ve put the reins on him and they need to let him go free. When I watch Terrelle play right now, I see a robot.”

Reitz, now the coach at Latrobe High, said Pryor was recruited on the premise of a more diverse offense.

“All I know is they promised him that they would teach him a pro-style system with both a shotgun and under center,” Reitz said. “Jim Tressel is a great coach and he’s been running his offense successfully for 30 years. But I’d like to see some zone-read plays where with one mistake [by the defense], he can be gone. With some zone-read plays, they wouldn’t be able to take away all the outside runs because he’d being a threat to go between the tackles.”

Reitz said he believes that Pryor is being affected by criticism — though he would never admit it.

“It’s gotten to the point where I turn the volume down when watching TV now,” Reitz said. “I believe the criticism has seeped into his mind. I’m sure there are some mechanical issues. But all I know is he was accurate when he was in high school.”

Reitz said it would be a mistake to move Pryor to wide receiver — a move which Tressel said does not figure into his plans.

“He would be a great wide receiver or even a great linebacker,” Reitz said. “But that doesn’t mean you should move him from quarterback. In fact, I don’t think he’d agree to a move to wide receiver. Give him time to grow. Put the ball in his hands and if there is a breakdown let him run. It doesn’t look to me like he’s relaxed. It doesn’t look like he has rhythm. It doesn’t look like he’s comfortable.”

Tressel’s questionable game planning and playcalling aside, Pryor hasn’t shown that he can handle even the basic fundamentals of the position yet. His footwork is sloppy, his mechanics aren’t sound and he isn’t accurate. So this notion that Tressel isn’t using him effectively is a moot point right now because Pryor needs to figure out the basics of the position first.

But I agree with Reitz that Pryor shouldn’t be moved to another position yet. If he continues to regress at quarterback, then Tressel can re-assess the situation at the end of the year. But Pryor is only a sophomore and is still learning so at least for the time being, OSU should continue to try to shape him as a quarterback before moving him to another position.

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