It’s official: Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are forgoing their remaining college eligibility and declaring for the 2009 NBA Draft.
Lawson was arguably the best point guard in the country this season and was named ACC Player of the Year. He gutted through a swollen toe in the NCAA tournament, guiding the Tar Heels to a national championship (and f——g my bracket in the process). NBADraft.net has Lawson going #15 (to Detroit, which seems odd considering Joe Dumars has hitched his wagon to Rodney Stuckey), while DraftExpress has him slated for the 11th pick (New Jersey — another odd pairing, considering Devin Harris’ stellar play this season). Both mocks have Lawson behind Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings amongst point guards. Jonny Flynn, Tyreke Evans, Eric Maynor and Stephen Curry are ranked ahead of Lawson in one mock or the other.
I haven’t seen much of Jennings, but I think I’d favor Lawson over the other five right now. He has everything you want in a point guard — good vision, quickness, speed, strength, shooting — except for size, and Chris Paul (and others) have proved that you don’t need to be tall to succeed in today’s NBA.
As for Ellington, I’m surprised to see that NBADraft.net has him going 11th to New Jersey. Draft Express projects him to go with the 30th pick to the Cavs. When I first heard the news that he was going pro, my assumption was that he’d be a second round pick that might sneak into the first round with a series of good workouts. He shot the ball brilliantly in the NCAA tournament and that kind of clutch performance can really boost a player’s stock, but I’d be shocked if he becomes a lottery pick. Wings that can score are a dime a dozen in the NBA, so unless a player has a quality that really makes him stand out — i.e. Gerald Henderson’s athletic ability — they usually end up being late-first round or second round picks. We’ll see.
- With the start of a new baseball season, UNCOACHED.com puts together a photo gallery of the Marlins’ Mermaids off the field. Awesome.
- BLACKSPORTSONLINE.com has video of Eminem’s latest music video, which takes a shot at Tony Romo. (I thought Eminem was done making music? Oh, he’s back? Again?)
- SPORTSbyBROOKS.com asks the question, “Are NBA refs refusing to call fouls on LeBron James?”
- THE LOVE OF SPORTS compiles a list of the weirdest non-sports injuries.
- TAKEOUTMAG.COM started a new feature called, “Our Favorite People” and dedicated its first post to Yankee captain Derek Jeter.
- TONYBLOGS.NET has video highlights of the 2009 NCAA National Championship Game in case you missed North Carolina’s romp over Michigan State Monday night.
Michigan State knows it will be representing more than its school when it plays North Carolina in the NCAA championship game Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Spartans will also be representing a state and region that have been battered by the country’s poor economy, climbing unemployment rates and crumbling auto industry.
“There are a lot of cities right now that have problems,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “But this is ours. This is our big city in the state. So that’s why I think it’s a little more meaningful for those of us that are from around here.”
Believe it or not, the Spartans’ surprising run to the NCAA championship game is even meaningful for the sports fans who seem to hate them most.
Even in Ann Arbor, where University of Michigan fans only seem to dislike Ohio State more than Michigan State, it seems most of the Wolverines are rooting for the Spartans to beat the Tar Heels on Monday night.
“The first four times Michigan State went to the Final Four, you usually had the crowd here rooting against the Spartans,” said Ron Dreslinski of Ann Arbor, who sat at the bar in The Blue Leprechaun on South University Avenue on Sunday. “This is really the first time you have Michigan people rooting for them. I think it’s because the game is being played in Detroit. They’re kind of the underdog, too, which makes it easier.”
The poor economy in Michigan is a big reason why Michigan fans are rooting for State, but it also helps that Michigan’s most hated rival is Ohio State, not Michigan State. Plus, outside of Duke, UConn and North Carolina are the most universally disliked basketball programs in the country. Add it all up and you have Wolverines rooting for Spartans.
#1-seed North Carolina vs. #2-seed Michigan State Tip-Off: 9:21 PM ET
Sagarin Ratings: North Carolina (95.44), Michigan State (90.07)
Line: UNC – 7.5
After the Tar Heels trounced the Spartans by 35 points on Dec. 3, it was clear that if North Carolina stayed healthy, they’d probably make a return trip to Ford Field. Ty Lawson’s swollen toe threw the team’s chances up in the air, but the Tar Heels stayed focused and “The Toe” — after a scare in the first half against LSU — hasn’t given Lawson any noticeable problems in the tournament. Conversely, after that December meeting, the Spartans were left wondering just how good of a team they were. In their defense, they had just returned from a three-game stint at the Old Spice Classic in Florida and were playing their fourth game in seven days — against the top-ranked team in the country no less. Still, the game was in Detroit, and they had a couple days to recover after beating Wichita State on Nov. 30, so they should have put up more of a fight.
So how do we handicap Monday night’s game? Well, the Tar Heels still have an advantage at every position, but the Spartans are playing with a lot of confidence and Ford Field is still just 92 miles from campus. So there figures to be a lot of green and white in the stands tomorrow night, especially since the UConn and Villanova fans have been looking to dump their tickets before they catch a flight out of town.
Unlike most of the teams in the country, Michigan State does have the athletes to run with North Carolina, but the Spartans are just as content to settle into the half court and run their sets. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas has to limit or outplay Ty Lawson at the point. If Lawson wins that matchup, it’s going to be a long night for the Spartans. Michigan State can’t pack the lane like they did against UConn. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have been hot, so the MSU defenders will have to stay home. They need to meet Tyler Hansbrough at the free throw line and keep him from establishing deep position in the post. If they can push him out of his comfort zone, the perimeter defenders won’t have to double.
The bottom line is the Spartans have to get the Tar Heels out of their game. Michigan State can throw 10 or 11 players out there, but they should only push the ball when they have an advantage. Otherwise, they should execute their half court offense and hope that those wide open 15-foot jumpers keep falling. Athleticism isn’t an issue; Michigan State can jump as high and run as fast as North Carolina can, so this game will come down to execution. In the end, I think the Tar Heels will have enough to win the game, but I think Michigan State +7.5 is attractive due to the Spartans “sticktoitiveness.” They’re just going to keep coming and coming until the final buzzer sounds.
When I filled out my bracket, I felt that North Carolina’s chances were tied to the health of Ty Lawson’s toe. And I still think so.
The ACC POY had to sit out the ACC tournament to allow the swelling to go down. And this wasn’t just any swelling; Dick Vitale said that the toe was “cartoonishly” swollen (and I think he just made that word up). This is obviously a huge concern for North Carolina.
He injured the toe on March 6 and played two days later against Duke, scoring 13 points (on 2 of 7 shooting) and dishing out nine assists. He sat out both of North Carolina’s ACC tournament games, and the Tar Heels lost to Florida State. They aren’t the same team without him.
I think that UNC can get past the first two rounds even if Ty Lawson isn’t 100%. But I’m not sure that they can get by Gonzaga without him playing at a high level. This is probably the biggest “IF” of the entire tournament. If Lawson can play at 90-95%, then the Tar Heels are probably the tournament favorite. If he can’t, then they could easily lose before the Final Four.
So how do we handle this? Well, for the purposes of a single bracket, I’m going to wager that a “cartoonishly” swollen toe isn’t going to be 90-95% healed in time for the tournament. I don’t particularly like Oklahoma or Syracuse to beat them unless Lawson is out or very limited, so I am going to put the Tar Heels through to the Final Four. If I were in two or more brackets, I’d have one where North Carolina loses in the Final Four semis, and one where they lose to Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen. The bottom line is that I’m betting that Lawson’s toe is not good enough for him to play at a high level for six games over the next three weeks.
If Lawson had been healthy heading into the tournament, I would have picked the Tar Heels over Connecticut for the title. I haven’t seen a guy play this well on a bum toe, so either it wasn’t ever as bad as it seemed, or Lawson has a tremendous ability to play with pain. I’m bummed about my bracket blowing up in my face (thanks, Pitt), but I feel like my original take sans health issues — UNC & UConn — was spot on, but I couldn’t in good conscience pick a team whose best player was gimpy with a bum toe. Simply stated, I guessed wrong on Lawson’s toe.
I think we’ll see a UNC-UConn final, but Michigan State and Villanova are both playing their best basketball of the season. It should be an interesting Final Four.
These March Madness diaries have turned into something of a tour of the sports bars of Orange County. Last Thursday it was Rudy’s in Newport Beach (still my favorite), yesterday it was the Costa Mesa Hooters, and tonight it’s Sandbox, a relatively new sports bar/lounge on Beach Blvd in Huntington Beach. The setup is nice – but no wifi, so this diary is going up in one fell swoop – with a number of HD flatscreens positioned around the restaurant. At night, it turns into more of a lounge/dance club for the well-dressed. Our server’s name is Jessie and she’s looking sharp in her little black dress. We’ll see if I can get a picture of her for you.
I’m watching the games with LaRusso and his co-worker/buddy Kevin, who is from Foxboro, so he’s a big Patriots, Celtics and Red Sox fan. We got into a minor spat last year over whether or not the Celtics would have beat the Lakers had Andrew Bynum been healthy – he thought a Boston win would have been a sure thing while I thought it would have thrown the series on its ear, but we’re way past that now.
5:14 PM: Louisville is spanking Arizona (not a huge surprise) and Oklahoma is up eight or ten on Syracuse (a bit of a surprise). I think the Orangemen have a shot at pulling this one out, though it’s not looking particularly good right now.
5:20 PM: What is the deal with these Howie Long commercials where he mocks anyone who has a truck that’s not a Chevy? This probably brings back memories of high school for Howie. Is there any chance that he wasn’t stuffing freshman in lockers on a regular basis? He reminds me of a meaner “Big John” from “Can’t Buy Me Love.” He was the one who stuck his butt out the window of a house party and farted in the face of a young Seth Green. For those that haven’t seen the flick, it’s one of my favorites from the ’80s — McDreamy plays a McLoser who pays a girl to date him so he can be popular. Hilarity (and surprisingly touching social commentary) ensues. Anyway, I’m waiting for one of these guys in these commercials to tell Howie to go f*ck himself. Do we really need a washed up NFLer mocking a fellow truck owner because it has a convenient “man step” or gets two fewer miles to the gallon? Give me a break.
It looks like Ty Lawson’s toe is good enough to play against Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen on Friday.
“It’s getting better,” Lawson said Tuesday. “I’m walking on it better. Hopefully in a couple of days, it’ll be back to 100 percent.”
He participated in the team’s shootaround Monday and expected to go through some drills during practice this week. But the team has been cautious, keeping him out of practice for almost two weeks, in addition to missing both of the Tar Heels’ ACC tournament games and their NCAA opener against Radford.
[Roy] Williams said the injury will linger.
“It’s here,” he said. “It’s going to be here. It’s not going to go away. It’s going to hurt the whole rest of the season until he can take that time off.”
“I don’t think he’s going to be 100 percent,” Williams said. “But we’ll take whatever we can get, especially if it’s like that performance Saturday. That’s about as good as I’ve had a point guard play in 21 years as a head coach. I even told him that I was thinking of calling him ‘Rambo’ instead of ‘Dennis the Menace.”
All right, so he’s going to play. After performing well (though looking a little gimpy) against LSU, that’s no surprise. But is 80% or 90% of Ty Lawson enough to get the Tar Heels past a good Gonzaga team? That question will be answered on Friday.
From UNC Basketball, a quote from UNC assistant coach, Joe Holladay, commenting on North Carolina’s practice on Monday.
“I saw him today. We didn’t do a whole lot today, but we put up a lot of shots. He participated in everything we did [in practice today]. He’s sore, but he always moves around like an old man … He’s moving around a little cautiously and is able to shoot the basketball, which is a good sign because there for a week he couldn’t even come up on his toe to shoot. So I think he is doing as well as can be expected.”
It’s a good sign (for Tar Heel fans) that he was able to shoot after hearing a “popping” sound in his toe against LSU on Saturday.
Those amateur bracketologists out there that have North Carolina in their Final Four might want to re-think that pick. Ty Lawson is doubtful for the opening round game against Radford.
North Carolina coach Roy Williams said Wednesday there is a “huge, huge probability Ty Lawson will not play” in Thursday’s NCAA tournament opening round game against Radford because of the injury to Lawson’s right big toe.
“Some things would have to change drastically before I’d change my mind on that,” said Williams, whose No. 1-seeded Tar Heels face Radford at 2:50 p.m. Thursday in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Williams said his point guard, the ACC’s Player of the Year, has been limited in the past two practices and wasn’t able to do any live drills against any of his teammates. Lawson was injured in practice on March 6.
It’s nice to have a President that knows a little something about sports. He filled out a bracket for ESPN, but he picked North Carolina to win it all, so he must have missed the news about Ty Lawson’s big toe. (Or maybe he knows something I don’t.)
