One thing that I failed to mention in yesterday’s recap was #13-seed Cleveland State’s upset of #4 Wake Forest. Now the headline at Fox News reads “Cleveland State Shocks Wake Forest” but the win isn’t really shocking at all. The Demon Deacons’ uneven play has led to several so-called “upsets” this season; they lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina State in ACC action. They were a combined 7-1 against the top five teams in the conference — Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College — so clearly Wake is a team that has a tendency to play to the level of its opponent.

But give Cleveland State credit, they came out like gangbusters, hitting three three-pointers in the first two minutes to give the Vikings a 9-0 lead. This is a team that only averages 4.9 made threes per game, and the Vikings had five in the first 10 minutes of action. (Oddly enough, they only made one more over the last 30 minutes.) The two teams played evenly for most of the game, and Wake Forest managed to cut the lead to six with 11:09 to play, but Cleveland State went on an 11-1 run over the next four minutes to push the lead back to 16.

This win is considered the first big upset of the season, but I was more surprised by how Dayton upended West Virginia, a team that numbers-wise — and I’m talking Sagarin and Pomeroy numbers — looked like it had the tools to make a run. Bracket-wise, I’m not doing all that well. Florida State, Ohio State, Utah State and Butler lost by a total of nine points and each had a few chances to move on but failed to capitalize. My picks aren’t dead yet by any means, 14 of my Sweet Sixteen and seven of my Elite Eight are still alive, so like anyone, I just need to hit two or three of my final four and have my overall winner (Pitt) come in. (And given how Pitt played against East Tennessee State, I’m not feeling all that hot about that pick!) Another key is that potential Gonzaga/North Carolina matchup next week. It would really help if Ty Lawson stayed hobbled, allowing the Bulldogs to pull the upset. It will be interesting to see if he plays today against LSU.

On the whole, my picks are suffering because teams with a 2+ point Sagarin advantage are just 21-8 (72%) so far this year. Usually, this system is right about 85% of the time. I was also just 1-3 when I picked games another way. I trumped a 2+ point Sagarin advantage in the Marquette/Utah State game, thinking that the Aggies would pull the upset (which they almost did) because the Golden Eagles were without Dominic James. I picked FSU because of the 3+ seed advantage (which is right 75% of the time) and picked Butler because of the team’s stellar road/neutral record (and a lack of confidence in LSU and the entire SEC). My picks lost those three games by a total of eight points. The game I nailed was the Oklahoma State win over Tennessee, and I picked the Cowboys because of better guard play. Byron Eaton came through big time.

I’ll be back later on (on this post) to blog some of the day’s action…

5:41 PM: I haven’t posted today because there wasn’t anything really to post about. Villanova spanked UCLA. UConn destroyed Texas A&M. The Wildcats were basically playing a home game, and ‘Nova jumped all over the Bruins. UCLA just couldn’t match Villanova’s athleticism and energy, and if Duke is fortunate enough to get past Texas, ‘Nova will give them all (or more) that they can handle. UConn just looked great. If 7′3″ Hasheem Thabeet can stay on the court, he’s a serious game-changer in the middle.

But the game of the day so far was the Washington/Purdue matchup in Portland. It’s frustrating when you’re rooting for a team and they trail the entire game but get it close at the end. It’s almost like they get off to a crappy start and have to expend so much energy just to cut into the lead that they don’t have the energy (or the poise, in this case) to tie the game up or take the lead. The Huskies squandered so many chances to regain the lead, and they essentially wasted their virtual home court. We have to give a ton of credit to Purdue for having the mental focus to come out so strong and be able to play the tough defense necessary to close the deal. There were no easy shots for Washington, and that’s a big part of what made the second half so frustrating for Husky fans.

Ty Lawson ended up starting (and North Carolina pulled away in the second half), but the story will be how that big toe responds over the next few days. He was not himself out there — he didn’t have the same burst and he was clearly bothered by the injury. It was funny to see the Duke fans going nuts when LSU was keeping the game close. I’m sure the North Carolina fans would do the exact same thing if the roles were reversed. It’s what makes that Duke/UNC rivalry one of the best in all of sport.

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It was nip and tuck most of the way, but the Tar Heels got it together late in the second half to pull away over arch rival Duke, 79-71. North Carolina has almost a two-point lead over the next-best team in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings (which is the main way that I fill out my bracket), but I just don’t like this team to win it all. They’re sloppy with the ball, have poor spacing on offense and they missed a ton of free throws. But they have so much talent that when the game is tight in the second half, they always seem to be able to put together a run to put the game away. Really, they could win it all or they could lose in the second round to an eight- or nine-seed that plays a good, clean game.

Five Tar Heels scored in double figures, led by Tyler Hansbrough’s 17 points. Conversely, Duke was very content to walk the ball up and run its half court offense, which put the ball into the hands of Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, and allowed them to go to work. Coach K really shortened his bench for this game — just three reserves played a total of 19 minutes (and they failed to score a single point).

The win should seal a #1 seed for North Carolina, and barring Duke winning the ACC tournament (coupled with an early round exit by Oklahoma or UConn), the Blue Devils are probably looking at a #2 or #3 seed. Check back tomorrow for a preview of all the major conference tournaments.

#5 Oklahoma visited #12 Missouri last night, and the Tigers pulled the upset, 73-64. Blake Griffin had 16 points and 21 rebounds, but turned the ball over six times in the loss. The Tigers were obviously motivated after the 25-point drubbing they took from the Kansas Jayhawks. This looks like it would have been a fun game to watch — too bad it was only on ESPN360. The network really should have a way to bring great matchups like this to a wider audience.

#9 Kansas lost to unranked Texas Tech, 84-65. Senior Alan Voskuil had 35 points on 9 of 14 shooting from long range. I’m not sure what to make of these Big 12 teams right now. Kansas and Oklahoma looked like the cream of the crop, and they turn around a lose to Texas Tech and Missouri, respectively. (In the Sooners’ defense, Missouri was the #12 team in the nation and the game was on the road.) Oklahoma was in line for a #1 seed, but it looks like they still have some work to do.

Meanwhile, #2 North Carolina fended off a feisty Virginia Tech squad, 86-78, while #4 Pitt beat #15 Marquette, 90-75. The Tar Heels earned at least a share of the ACC regular season title, though they’ll have to beat archrival Duke on Sunday to avoid sharing the honors with the Blue Devils.

This is how a Duke/North Carolina matchup is supposed to be. Both teams are ranked in the top five, they’re tied for first place (at 7-2) in the ACC, and the winner will have the inside track to the conference championship. The game takes place at Cameron Indoor Stadium, a venue that even Duke haters will admit has set the standard for home court advantage. Duke was one of the first schools (if not the first) to put the student body front and center and that atmosphere has played a huge part in the Blue Devils’ success over the past two decades. (Though it should be noted that, with a win, Tyler Hansbrough could go 4-0 at Cameron in his career, so North Carolina has owned Coach K Court of late.)

North Carolina and Duke are located just eight miles apart, making their rivalry the most spirited in all of college basketball. This three-disc DVD set contains three of the Tar Heels’ most memorable wins over their hated archrival.

From the back cover…

March 3, 1984
Chapel Hill, NC
North Carolina 96 Duke 83 (2 OT)
The final home game for North Carolina’s Matt Doherty, Michael Jordan, and Sam Perkins, was a memorable one. #1 North Carolina looked to be finished down two with just second to go in regulation when Matt Doherty took the inbounds pass the length of the court and hit a 15-footer to force overtime. Michael Jordan opened the second overtime with an alley-oop dunk and Duke’s Johnny Dawkins came back to cut the North Carolina lead to 82-81 with a short jumper but Duke would get only one more basket as Jordan and Perkins carried the Tar Heels to the victory.

February 2, 1995
Durham, NC
North Carolina 102 Duke 100 (2OT)
Duke seemed out-manned on their home court from the opening tip, falling behind 26-9 in the first half, highlighted by an alley-oop dunk from Carolina’s Rasheed Wallace and a reverse jam by Jerry Stackhouse over two Blue Devils. However, Duke rallied in the second half and led by as much as 12, before North Carolina staged a rally of its own. The two squads exchanged leads four times at the end of regulation before heading into overtime. With three seconds left in the first overtime Duke’s Jeff Capel hit a running, 37-foot heave that tied the game at the buzzer. With the game still tied late in the second overtime, Jeff McInnis stole the inbounds pass for an easy layup, putting North Carolina up 102-98. Duke answered with a basket of their own and had a chance to force a third overtime or win the game but fell short on Steve Wojciechowski’s missed jumper.

The Duke Blue Devils #1 goal every season is to beat North Carolina. The two schools are just eight miles apart and the players and fans hate each other (literally). This three-disc DVD set includes three of the biggest Duke wins in this storied rivalry from the full-length, commercial-free television broadcasts.

From the back cover…

February 3, 2000
Chapel Hill, NC
Duke 90 ∙ North Carolina 86 (OT)
The Tar Heels, unranked coming into the game for the first time since 1990, struggled in the first half. Shane Battier scored 14 first-half points for #3 Duke who jumped out to a 17-point halftime lead. Duke pushed the lead to 19 early in the second half before North Carolina turned the game around scoring on 19 of its final 22 possessions, including a Joseph Forte three-pointer with 5.2 seconds left to send the game to overtime. The Blue Devils scored on their first six possessions in overtime and got seven points from Carlos Boozer in the extra frame to hold on for the victory.

February 9, 2005
Durham, NC
Duke 71 ∙ North Carolina 70
In arguably the most anticipated game in the rivalry since 1998, #2 ranked UNC came up Highway 15-501 to visit the #8 ranked Blue Devils for a heavily hyped, prime time broadcast. By keeping the game almost entirely in the halfcourt, the Blue Devils and their vaunted defense simply were too much for North Carolina. J.J. Redick scored 18 points and freshman DeMarcus Nelson added 16 for Duke who forced UNC into 23 turnovers to seal the victory.