The first quarter of the 2011 NFL season is in the books and as usual, there have been a handful of surprises thus far. Here are the five biggest.

5. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers
Everyone knew the NFC West was going to be a crapshoot this season, just like it was a year ago. While many people thought that the Rams would emerge as division champs, it was easy to predict their horrid start given the difficulty of their schedule. The true surprise is the San Francisco 49ers, who are led by a head coach that was serving in the college ranks last year. What Jim Harbaugh has been able to do so far in San Francisco is impressive. The lockout should have caused teams like the 49ers to struggle early on because they didn’t have enough offseason preparation. But instead of floundering, the Niners have flourished. They’re one bad quarter against the Cowboys from being 4-0 and their come-from-behind victory against the Eagles last Sunday will give this team confidence heading forward. While the offensive line is still a major work in progress, the defense has really performed well thanks to guys like Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Patrick Willis and rookie Aldon Smith. With how poorly the rest of the division is, the Niners may finally claim the top spot in the NFC West again.

4. The high-flying Bills
I happen to think last week’s loss to the Bengals was an aberration and that the Bills will continue to be competitive all season. This team was due for a letdown. They were coming off an emotional win against a divisional opponent (the Patriots, no less) the week prior and had to go on the road to face a Cincinnati team that is better than people think. The loss will prove to be a valuable lesson for the Bills, who aren’t good enough yet to take any team for granted. This is still a squad that has practically done everything right to this point. Their passing attack is solid, their young offensive line is overachieving and their defense has been opportunistic and solid against the run. While they may not make the playoffs this season, Chan Gailey has this team headed in the right direction.

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Word has it that the Eagles loaded up this offseason. BIG TIME.

They added Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, Cullen Jenkins, Jason Babin, Ronnie Brown, Anthony Hargrove and Vince Young to a roster that already included Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and Asante Samuel. In other words: CHAMPIONSHIP!

Following their huge offseason, there’s no doubt that the Eagles should be favored to win the NFC East, but let’s pump the breaks for a second and play devil’s advocate. Just like any team at this point of the year, they have question marks. Below are three factors I believe could make Philly fail to live up to the hype.

(For those wondering why I didn’t include DeSean Jackson’s contract situation: I fully believe that the Eagles will pay D-JAX at some point, which is why I chose to focus on other factors.)

1. Michael Vick
Last season, Vick compiled career-highs in completion percentage, touchdowns and QB-rating, while posting a career-low in interceptions and interception percentage. Now let’s see if he can do it again. Talent has never been the issue with Vick – consistency has. When he set a then career-high for completion percentage in ‘04 with Atlanta, he regressed as a passer in ‘05 and ‘06. He’s also injury-prone and has a habit of forcing the action when his team is trailing in the fourth quarter and counting on him to make a play. (One example of this came in last year’s playoffs against the Packers in which he was picked off in the end zone on the Eagles’ final drive.)

There’s no doubt Vick has matured as a player and a person. Prison and not being coddled by an owner (Arthur Blank) and head coach (Jim Mora) will do that for an athlete. But let’s see if Vick can put together back-to-back successful seasons before we anoint him a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. He has a habit of getting complacent in his situation, especially when he has nobody behind him to push him. Granted, Andy Reid is 10-times the coach Mora was, but it remains to be seen whether or not Vick will stay hungry for 16-plus games. Remember, he’s 2-3 as a starter in the playoffs and 0-3 in postseason games in Philly.

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You can’t buy your way to a championship in the NFL. Just ask Dan Snyder and the Washington Redskins. That said, free agency and shrewd trades can push a good team over the top, and everyone seems to think that the Philadelphia Eagles have made enough upgrades during this frenetic free agent period to make them a serious contender for the Super Bowl. The moves will definitely make this team better.

The acquisition of Nnamdi Asomugha was a shocker and rates as the most important addition. He’s a shut down corner and can elevate this defense. The Eagles added another talented corner in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as part of the ransom Arizona paid for Kevin Kolb. They also added pass rusher Jason Babin who’s coming off a breakout season. With stud corners and an improved pass rush, the Eagles defense could be dominant.

I like the addition of Vince Young as well, but this is still a risky move. Getting a big-name quarterback as a backup to the brittle Micheal Vick makes a ton of sense, but I don’t see Vince Young as a West Coast offense quarterback. You could have said the same thing about Michael Vick, but Vick was always a better passer than Young. Also, while Vick had his own share of troubles, Young’s problems seem worse. There’s a real issue of whether he can handle the pressure. That said, he’s a real talent, and Andy Reid always gets the most out of his quarterbacks.

The Eagles have stunned the NFL with these upgrades, and now we’ll see if they have enough to topple the Packers in the NFC.

Upgrade today like the Eagles and Best Buy will buy it back when you’re ready for the next big thing

In Saturday’s Quick-Hits, the Eagles shock the masses by signing Nnamdi Asomugha, the Phillies get more bang for their prospects than the Giants, and the Bears’ questionable decision regarding Greg Olsen.

- Where did that come from? Just when it looked like free agent Nnamdi Asomugha was headed to New York to team with Darrelle Revis to form the greatest cornerback duo known to man, the Eagles swoop in and pull off a stunner. Asomugha’s deal is for five years at $60 million, which also includes $25 million guaranteed. There were a lot of people who questioned Andy Reid’s decision to make former offensive line coach Juan Castillo the Eagles’ new defensive coordinator, but now it might not matter who’s calling the shots on that side of the ball. After acquiring Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie this offseason, the Eagles shouldn’t have as many problems in the red zone as they did in 2010. NFL.com’s Mike Lombardi reports that Philly is willing to trade Asante Samuel, which would be a mistake in my eyes. The Eagles are legit Super Bowl contenders now. There’s no reason to part with any talent at this pointt.

- One of the reasons I was so conflicted on the Carlos Beltran trade was because of whom the Giants gave up (top prospect Zach Wheeler) in exchange for the former Met. Granted, Beltran is good and there’s no doubt they needed him. But look at what the Phillies just did in acquiring Hunter Pence from Houston. They parted with two good prospects but landed a 28-year-old outfielder that remains under team control through 2013 – not a 34-year-old outfielder who might not be around in three months when he becomes a free agent. I think the Giants deserve credit for “going for it.” But when the Phillies “go for it” by giving up their top prospects, they land Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Pence – players whom they knew were going to be around a while (or thought they knew when it came to Lee, who was traded in order to acquire Halladay). It seems like the front office philosophy of the Giants is to get a player it likes no matter what the cost. Seeing as how they’re currently defending a World Series title, it’s hard to knock said philosophy. But after reviewing the trades that the two teams made this past week, I can’t help but to think the Phillies made the better overall deal.

- The fact that the Bears traded former first round pick Greg Olsen this offseason is hardly surprising. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t use tight ends in his passing game, so the fact that Olsen racked up 41 catches last year was pretty impressive. But giving up a young talent just because your offensive coordinator doesn’t have much need for the player’s position is a risky proposition. For starters, what if Martz isn’t around in a year? Then what do the Bears have to show for Olsen besides a third round pick? It cost them a first round pick to draft him in the first place, so GM Jerry Angelo didn’t get good value here. (After all, it’s not like Olsen can’t play and the Bears were looking to get anything in exchange for him.) Granted, that third rounder could turn out to be a Pro Bowler someday (Angelo is good at finding gems in the middle rounds), but presently the deal doesn’t make sense when you get past Martz’s desire to exclude tight ends. Seeing as how he’s a receiver in a tight end’s body, if I were Angelo I would have rather seen my offensive coordinator try to work with Olsen instead of shipping him to Carolina for a third round pick.

- One player that continues to lose money by the hour is free agent defensive end Cullen Jenkins. The former Packer is a solid player, who that is scheme-versatile in that he can play in either a 3-4 or a 4-3. But after the Panthers re-signed Charles Johnson, the Eagles landed Jason Babin, the Patriots acquired Albert Haynesworth, the Cowboys inked Kenyon Coleman and Marcus Spears, and the Falcons got a steal in Ray Edwards, there aren’t a lot of teams that are a fit for Jenkins. Granted, teams always need pass-rushers, but my guess is that Jenkins will wind up back in Green Bay on the cheap.

- The Rams made two moves on Friday that I really liked. The first was signing nasty offensive guard Harvey Dahl away from the Falcons. I keep reading how Sam Bradford will love the addition of Dahl, which is true. But he might not love it as much as running back Steven Jackson. Dahl is an absolute mauler in the run game and brings a much-needed nasty demeanor to St. Louis’ offensive line. The other signing I like was Mike Sims-Walker, who only received a one-year deal because the Rams want to make him prove himself. When healthy and motivated, he’s the big receiver that Bradford sorely needs. But if he winds up being a free agent bust, hey, no problem: he’ll be gone in a year.

In Friday’s Quick-Hits, I discuss the one big difference between the Redskins and Patriots (besides you know, that whole winning thing), Chris Johnson’s second holdout in as many years, the narrowing race to sign Nnamdi Asomugha, and the reuniting of Roy Williams and Mike Martz. Plus Vince Young, the Bucs and more.

- In the wake of the Patriots acquiring Chad Ochocinco from the Bengals, MMA Blitz writer and fellow TSR contributor Drew Ellis texted me this last night: “Is it just me or are the Patriots turning into the Redskins?” I get his point. The Patriots have never been worried about “name” talent; Bill Belichick just plugs players into his schemes and they win. But besides the obvious differences (like winning), the main reason the Patriots and Redskins are different is because Belichick never pays full price for anything. What did he give up to acquire Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth the last two days? Two fifth round picks and a sixth-rounder? That’s nothing. That’s three special teamers or camp bodies in exchange for a receiver who absolutely loves Belichick and one of the best interior defensive linemen in the game when he’s motivated. On the flip side, the Redskins have paid out the ass for veteran talent and haven’t gotten anything to show for it. As I texted Drew, Belichick doesn’t take a dump in the morning without having a game plan. These moves will pan out – I guarantee it.

- I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The Titans need to pony up and pay Chris Johnson, who will not report to camp on Friday says beat writer Jim Wyatt. Johnson has been one of the most productive backs in the NFL the past few seasons and he’s only 25. That means he has four or five more productive seasons left in him, so why Tennessee would dick around now is beyond me. They’re going to need this kid when Jake Locker is ready to take over the offense and is looking around for help. And seeing as how Kenny Britt probably won’t be around in another year or two, giving CJ a five-year deal makes a lot of sense.

- The race to sign Nnamdi Asomugha is apparently down to two teams according to NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi. Apparently some players in Dallas (with Tony Romo being one of them) are willing to restructure their deals in order to land the top corner on the market, while the Jets have made some moves in the past 24 hours to help clear cap space. (They released Mark Brunell and waived CB Will Billingsley and G Marlon Davis.) If it’s down to the Cowboys and Jets, I think New York walks away the winner. But I’m also the guy who predicted that he would land with the Bucs so…Dallas it is.

- The Bears have reunited Roy Williams with his former coordinator Mike Martz after signing the receiver to a two-year deal. It’s a nice fit given how productive Williams was under Martz in Detroit. It’s funny though, I have often wondered whether or not Williams could get any slower and the Bears have provided the answer. His speed should transfer real nice onto that dirt patch Chicago calls a field.

- Vince Young did the right thing signing a one-year deal with the Eagles. There was no market for him as a starter, so he might as well go to a place where the coaching staff is excellent and he can learn from a guy in Michael Vick (who obviously had to do some growing up himself). Besides, Vick always gets hurt once or twice a year so maybe if V.Y. turns in a solid preseason and fills in admirably for Vick, there will be a market for him next offseason.

- Let me get this straight: the Bucs want nothing to do with Nnamdi Asomugha but they hand free agent punter Michael Koenen $19.5 million, with $6.5 million guaranteed? Koenen is one of the best in the league but it’s a little befuddling why Tampa would pony up that much for a punter instead of at least kicking the tires on Asomugha (especially given Aqib Talib’s legal issues). My God, man.

- For the past two years I have wondered why the Saints were so willing to push Reggie Bush out the door. He said he was willing to take a paycut to stay in NOLA, so why not keep the versatile playmaker around as a role player? But the deal they just made for Darren Sproles was solid. The Saints have averaged more yards and points with Bush out of the lineup than with him in it, and they essentially just filled his role with a cheaper option in Sproles. Oh, and New Orleans also received a late-round pick and a 22-year-old special teams ace in Jonathon Amaya for Bush when they sent him to Miami. Nice work this offseason, Mickey Loomis.

- Here’s my off-the-cuff prediction of the day: Osi Umenyiora winds up in Atlanta after the Giants cut him.

With the lockout in the rearview mirror, NFL fans can now put away their “Lawyer Jargon for Dummies” textbooks and start hitting the rumor mill once again.

Since I’m a fun guy who likes to have some fun and enjoys a little fun, I’ve decided to have a little fun by trying to predict where some of the top free agents will land over the next two weeks. Remember, this is all for fun and is not to be taken too seriously. If you’re the asswipe who reads these things and immediately gets in a tizzy because you disagree, then be aware of my one and only rule when it comes to predictions: Don’t criticize me if you don’t have the stones to leave your own predictions in the comments section.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s have some good ol’ fashion family fun! (Have I overused that word yet? Did the joke land? It wasn’t funny in the first place? All right…) Here are 10 free agents and my predictions for where they might land. In the “Hedging my bet with” section, I list an alternative to where I think said free agent may wind up.

Nnamdi Asomugha, CB: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It has been reported that the 2011 NFL salary cap will (roughly) be around $120 million, which leaves the Bucs with (roughly) $60 million to spend in free agency. Of course, that doesn’t mean that cheapo Malcolm Glazer will open his wallet, but we do know that the new CBA comes with a salary cap floor. Thus, teams like the Bucs will have to spend something in free agency. The Bucs have built a solid, young core centered around quarterback Josh Freeman. With Aqib Talib’s legal situation up in the air, they have a definite need at corner and if teams like the Eagles, Cowboys and Jets feel as though Asomugha’s price tag is too steep, maybe the Bucs will step in and shell out big money to land the top free agent on the market. (And if you’re wondering about whether or not Asomugha is a fit for Raheem Morris’ defensive scheme, don’t worry about it because the man is a fit for every defense.)
Hedging my bet with: New York Jets

DeAngelo Williams, RB: Carolina Panthers
The emergence of Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart make Williams expendable but the Panthers are still the frontrunners to retain him in my eyes. He says he wants to stay in Carolina and while he’d be a fool to not at least test the market, I think he’ll eventually stay put. The Panthers realize they need a good stable of running backs no matter who starts at quarterback this season, so re-signing Williams is still a priority despite expanding rolls for Goodson and Stewart.
Hedging my bet with: New York Giants.

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Players and owners in the “red zone” in terms of labor talks?
A league source tells SI.com that the players and owners are “in the red zone” with regard to the labor negotiations. The source says that back in March, “we weren’t in the same stadium.” But now the two sides are apparently inching closer to wrapping up a deal thanks to the momentum that has been created over the last couple of weeks. The two sides will continue talks on Thursday and Friday, with five players and DeMaurice Smith conversing with Roger Goodell and five owners. While these discussions remain fluid, talks continue to progress.

Redskins won’t release Haynesworth
Mike Shanahan and the Redskins appear determined to leave Albert Haynesworth in NFL purgatory. Philadelphia Sports Daily says that the Skins will not release the DT quickly after the lockout and if any team wants him, they’ll have to trade for him. Apparently Washington doesn’t want to give into what Haynesworth wants, which is to be released. I can’t envision a scenario in which Haynesworth is still a Redskin by the start of the season, but you never know. Shanahan has proven time and time again that he can be stubborn.

MJD: The Jaguars are scared of my knee
In an interview with the Florida Times Union, running back Maurice Jones-Drew says that the Jaguars are “already kind of scared of my (surgically repaired) knee” and are “anxious to throw Rashad (Jennings) in” for more carries. As Rotoworld.com points out, Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter insists that there have been no discussions in the offensive staff room over MJD’s knee, although the team’s official website did run a story earlier this week about how the coaching staff wants to get Jennings more involved. Seeing as how the NFL is largely a two-back league now, it wouldn’t be surprising if Jennings did get more touches next year – regardless of whether or not there is concern about MJD’s knee.

Asomugha to receive $19 million a year?
NFL.com’s Jason La Canfora seems to think that free agent cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha could receive a contact that approaches $19 million a year. If so, it would make Asomugha the highest paid player in NFL history. La Canfora believes that the Bucs could be serious bidders for the cornerback, which makes sense given Aqib Talib’s legal troubles. The Texans are also reportedly interested in Asomugha, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lions also got in the mix once the lockout lifts. The Eagles, Ravens and Jets have also been mentioned as possible suitors.

The NFL Network’s Jason LaCanfora is the latest to report that the Texans plan to pursue cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha once the lockout lifts. ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky said the same thing last week, which was in line with similar reports made by the Houston Chronicle within the last month.

Considering the Texans finished dead last in passing defense in 2010, they would be foolish not to at least entertain pursuing Asomugha, who will become a free agent as soon as the labor dispute ends. According to stats compiled by NFL.com, he has surrendered just 1.2 catches per game since 2008. That’s the lowest mark in the league among qualifying defensive backs, although it’s also important to keep in mind that he’s only been thrown at 2.2 times per game.

The Texans like cornerbacks Glover Quin and 2010 first round pick Kareem Jackson, but I would imagine they would gladly move either to nickel in order to make room for Asomugha. The problem is that other teams may outbid Houston when it’s time to pony up for Asomugha’s services. The Eagles, Redskins, Ravens, Lions and even Jets may have interest in the soon-to-be-former Raider in the upcoming months. If the money is right, it’s hard to see Asomugha passing on the chance to play for a contender like the Eagles, Ravens or Jets, especially coming from Oakland.

That said, the Texans defense figures to be revamped under new coordinator Wade Phillips, and it’s not like the team doesn’t have talent on that side of the ball thanks to Mario Williams and Brian Cushing. One year after losing Dunta Robinson in free agency, maybe Houston will strike it rich with Asomugha. (Uh, “strike it rich” on the field, that is. Lord knows Asomugha will cost a truckload to bring in.)

The moment it was announced that Nnamdi Asomugha was likely to become a free agent this offseason, two potential landing spots emerged right away: Green Bay and Philadelphia.

Asomugha has a close relationship with Packers’ corner Charles Woodson, making Green Bay an obvious choice. Philadelphia is in need of a defensive back and there have been whispers that they’re willing to pay to pair Asomugha up with Asante Samuel.

But as Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com writes, the odds of Asomugha landing in Green Bay might be lower than people think.

I’ve tended to shy away from any anticipation of this move, knowing that Packers general manager Ted Thompson strongly prefers developing his own starters and depth through the draft. The Packers also are relatively well-stacked at cornerback with Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields. Williams is 27 and Shields is 23, and there is a strong possibility all NFL teams will be back to dealing with a salary cap when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.

But don’t take it from me. Woodson himself downplayed the possibility during an interview with Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com. While he would be willing to move to safety to make the arrangement work, Woodson said he wasn’t sure if it would come to that.

Woodson: “I’m not doing any recruiting. We’ve texted a few times about winning a Super Bowl. Nothing really about his future I don’t know what’s going on about him and Oakland or anything else. When I look at our team and I look at young Sam and Tramon, (I think), ‘Where’s he going to fit? How is that possibly going to work out?’ I think that would be the first question you have to ask.”

As Seifert points out, even though Thompson did pluck Woodson off the free agent market a couple of years ago, he prefers to build his roster through the draft. The team is also very high on Shields, who is expected to take over for Woodson one day.

Simply put, the Packers don’t need to spend big on Asomugha. Would Thompson love to have a talent such as Asomugha in his defensive backfield? Sure, just as any GM would. But it seems unlikely at this point that the Packers would pull the trigger on a move like that and have Woodson move to safety when he’s still playing corner at a Pro Bowl-level.

Philadelphia would seemingly be the front-runners at this point to land Asomugha’s services.

There appears to be conflicting reports when it comes to Antonio Cromartie’s future with the New York Jets. NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi is reporting that the team plans on letting the free agent walk this offseason, while Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post writes that the Jets have not “definitively decided to cut ties” with Cromartie.

Either way, it appears that the cornerback is not high on the Jets’ offseason priority list, which means things are sure to get interesting in Florham Park this spring.

In Cannizzaro’s report, he also confirms that the Jets’ top mission this offseason is to re-sign Santonio Holmes. The team already kept linebacker David Harris by franchising him earlier this week, so ensuring that Holmes is locked in as Mark Sanchez’s No. 1 receiver for the next four or five years is next on the Jets’ list.

After that, it’s unclear whether or not GM Mike Tannenbaum will try to re-sign Braylon Edwards or keep Cromartie. At some point, the Jets have to draw the line. It seems unlikely that they would be able to retain Holmes, Edwards and Cromartie, all while paying Harris top-dollar for one year under the franchise tag. They might be able to keep either Edwards or Cromartie, but not both.

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