We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to provide in-depth NHL coverage this season. For more analysis, be sure to check out the On Goal Analysis website and the OGA Blog.

Submitted by Michael Pryor

There are two things to report on for The Scores Report submission this week. First is a quick analysis of players skating in all games for a team versus their standings points – is there a connection? And the other is the latest results for On Goal Analysis’ Playoff Qualifying Curve.

Players In All Games Versus Standings Points

If I was back in a college science class, I would properly begin a study with a hypothesis. So I offer here that I believe the more players who skate for every scheduled game, the better the overall team performance. Said another way, injuries are likely to adversely affect a team’s ability to earn the “W.”

There is no doubt the loss of an Ovechkin, Gaborik, or Kopitar with what they are providing their teams right now should produce a drop off in overall team production and ability to win games. True, teams often rise to the occasion, playing above their heads and sucking it up for their fallen comrade. The New Jersey Devils losing Martin Brodeur for most of last season is a good example. But more often than not, you are likely to see the kind of play Vancouver offered with the loss of Roberto Luongo last winter.

They used to say in that science class ‘…It is just as important to disprove a theory as it is to show you were right….’ So without further ado here are the mixed results of the comparison through games ending Sunday night, 25 October:

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Submitted by Mike Pryor

A Note Caused By Atlanta

A 9 October blog by Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal Constitution caught my eye. Within, he indicated Thrashers’ coach John Anderson statement that, while the team had been outshot in its first two games, they are being more ‘…shot selective….’ This selectivity had actually produced 10 goals on 50 shots, or a scoring rate of 20%.

It made me wonder what are all teams’ scoring percentages in terms of goals divided by SOG, and how would that project over 82 games. Based on games ending on Saturday, 10 October, I came up with this:

While the numbers are interesting, there are some anomalies to point out what with it being early in the season and all. First is that the average number of projected goals over 82 games this season (‘Proj Gs’) is about 6.2% higher than last year. That sounds great! Were it not for the eight teams projected with 300+, and five teams with totals in the 100’s, I would think we are going to gleefully be witnessing more red lights. The truth is we are more likely to see those numbers even out amongst the clubs as the season wears on (last year, there were NO teams with 300 goals and only one in the 100’s) and any increase in scoring being more in the 1-2% range if it actually occurs.

Despite this being the early part of the season are a few other noteworthy facts. ATL’s 10 goals / 50 SOGs = 20% scoring percentage calculation is no longer valid after Saturday night. The highest percentage team on that chart is CGY at 15.5% or one goal in every 6 – 7 SOG. ATL is right behind with a 15.39% rate, but is now under that 20% that started me thinking. Still, it kinda sucks to play the Flames and face 35 shots, eh?

On the other side of the coin, however, you have BUF with a paultry 3.45% scoring percentage. Could it be the youngsters they have playing? Sabres’ line combinations? Something is amiss, here.

But when the average number of SOG per team and per game was 30.27 after Saturday night, that means CGY outscores BUF 5 – 1. Shoot – it means EVERYONE outscores BUF. Just not in regulation, right? I love irony. I also know this scoring rate bares watching throughout the season.

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Submitted by Mike Pryor of On Goal Analysis.

Tuesday night, 6 October has been my favorite night of the new NHL season so far.

That’s because NHL night number six serves as a testament to NHL parity. We say this because of seven games: two were decided by one goal; two won in OT; two more went to a SO; and the last game was a two-goal, see-saw decision. What may be causing this parity, you ask? We can only respond with ‘…Several things.’

Parity Reason #1 (P.R.1) – New Coaches and Coaching Staff

Some of this is inevitably due to the fact many teams are playing under a new coach and system and it takes time and game situation knowledge to make the adjustments more ‘normal’ to players on the ice. On 6 October, seven of the 14 teams playing were doing so under a new coach and staff.

Click here to read the rest of this post at the On Goal Analysis Blog.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to provide in-depth NHL coverage this season. Here is a look at the weekend’s game and a look ahead at this week’s action. For more analysis, be sure to check out the On Goal Analysis website and the OGA Blog.

It is time for a short post on some keys things we noticed this first weekend of the new hockey season and what to look for next week.

A short weekend…

…but an exciting and interesting one. At this point in the season, it is not worth getting too worked up while watching your team play. But if they were not winning, the time to wring hands is fast approaching. Because On Goal Analysis’ proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve is not yet ready to determine who will or will not be in the 2010 playoffs, this week’s primary post focus is on some of the interesting storylines from the first three days and nights of the new Hockey season.

The first note we caught was the President’s Trophy winner, runner up and No.3 team ALL losing their season openers. BOS recovered somewhat by going 1-1 with a HUGE 7-2 second game win over CAR. SJS did likewise with a Game #2 win in ANA. But DET starts 2-0 with 1/3 of games against STL down the tubes. Will this come back to haunt the Red Wings in any way? Shaken confidence and increased frustration are likely by-products here. This team has a mere four days to travel home and practice before receiving CHI at home, a club that took three-of-four points home from the European openers.

We also found several points where science kicked in to display the thought theory that ‘Nature Seeks Equilibrium.’

• The No. 1, undefeated pre-season team (VAN) starts 0-2, both loses within the Division. Might this skew things out of their favor come the end of the season? Especially when the difference between the 8th and 9th seeds since the Lockout has averaged 1.5 games? We shall see…

• The team picked to be No. 15 in the West (COL) and 30th overall in many pre-season polls begins the season 2-0 with two, convincing victories by an average of three goals. That Wojtek Wolski fella is on a roll.

• PIT, pacing themselves in pre-season with only one W are 2-0 to start defense of their Cup victory in games against the two NY’s.

We also were watching the top five 2009 Entry Draft prospects currently active with their clubs this past weekend and their efforts:

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We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring you a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NHL season. (Just scroll down on the OGA website and hit the calendar.) Here is the preview for the Washington Capitals…

Team Play: ISSUE – Reloading… There is a not so quiet excitement building in Washington for the start of the new season. Optimism is evident at player, coach and management level, and in the fans who will attend the 41+ sold out games this season. Any frustrations at their Conference Semi-Finals departure last season are now replaced by thoughts of chalking it up to completing another step toward the ultimate goal of raising The Stanley Cup. This, ladies and gentlemen, is a hungry and capable squad.

The early Fox Sports depth chart for the Capitals indicates a No. 1 line of Ovechkin- Backstrom- Semin from left to right, and Laich- Morrison- Knuble on No. 2. We think it will actually be Ovechkin- Backstrom- Knuble No. 1 and Laich- Morrison- Semin as No. 2. The No. 1 pairing scored 7 G’s and 7 A’s in the pre-season, and No. 2 combined to chip in 3 G’s and 8 A’s. Fourteen and eleven points? In pre-season? We know – suspect matchups against a lot of guys trying to make it into the NHL. But any way you slice these two pairings, it serves as an indicator that they will put up some good numbers for this club. Of interest to Caps fans is the No. 3 and 4 lines. As of 28 September, Keith Aucoin and Alexandre Giroux were amongst the cuts, leaving Chris Bourque and Quintin Laing up with the squad for opening night. And there’s also the Nylander Factor – as in not factored into any pre-season games + statements of deep desire to play + a $4.875M cap hit might just = a depth roster slot, especially due to injuries.

The top two pairings listed on defense are Green-Jurcina and Poti-Pothier. Based on last season’s play, the top blue line pair projects at approximately 103 points playing a full 82-game schedule. That’s with the big IF Mike Green produces 70+ points again this season. This is better than several forward trios on 3rd and 4th lines. You can forget the dearth of scoring in the pre-season for the first pair (a lone A for Green) as they saw limited game time. Line No. 2 was good for 1 G and 4 A’s in September and should be able to be counted upon for about a point every other game. For those waiting with baited breath, Karl Alzner was again a victim of late training camp cuts on 28 September, but look for an injury call up if required.

Click here to read the rest of the preview (which includes the site’s unique Playoff Qualifying Curve and fantasy information) at the On Goal Analysis site.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring you a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NHL season. (Just scroll down on the OGA website and hit the calendar.) Here is the preview for the Vancouver Canucks…

Team Play: ISSUE – A lack of excuses. Over the summer, Vancouver parted company with Mats Sundin, Taylor Pyatt, Mattias Ohlund and Jason LaBarbera. Those roster spots were filled (and then some) by Mikael Samuelsson, Mathieu Schnieder, Brad Lukowich, Christian Erhoff and Andrew Raycroft (and in all likelihood, Sergei Shirokov, as well). Overall, there’s no denying the fact that the Canucks improved over the summer. They now face the enjoyable dilemma of having eight NHL-caliber defensemen, while only needing seven…though Schneider’s recovery from shoulder surgery will allow Head Coach Alain Vigneault to postpone that d-man decision.

Among the forward corps, Samuelsson’s 19 goals last season equal Sundin’s and Pyatt’s combined tallies. Meanwhile, rookie Sergei Shirokov has demonstrated a nose for the net in preseason, and should be good for 20+, provided he spends the entire 2009-10 campaign in Vancouver. Thus, putting biscuits in baskets shouldn’t be an issue for the Canucks this season.

Much has been made of the Canucks’ “epic odyssey” – a “fourteen-game road trip” made necessary by the presence of the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Some have gone so far as to suggest the Canucks’ season hinges on this road trip. That was my initial thought, too…until I analyzed the trip and saw that it’s not as bad (or as “epic”) as it’s made out to be. Conclusion: No excuse.

The Vancouver Canucks enter the 2009-10 campaign an improved team over last season. Despite the improvements, expect the Canucks to battle the Calgary Flames all season long for supremacy in the Northwest, as the Flames have upgraded, too. Look for the loser of that battle to finish no lower than sixth in the West…and don’t be surprised if these two clubs meet in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs next April. Can you say, “fireworks”?

Click here to read the rest of the preview (which includes the site’s unique Playoff Qualifying Curve and fantasy information) at the On Goal Analysis site.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring you a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NHL season. (Just scroll down on the OGA website and hit the calendar.) Here is the preview for the Toronto Maple Leafs…

SUMMER SPLASH

* Brian Burke. since taking over the helm, is openly building a team that will, in the end, resemble his winning team in Anaheim. Big, mean, old-school hitting and hard-checking hockey is where Toronto is headed. And it does seem more appropriate here than in Anaheim. But the obvious question is whether or not it can succeed in Toronto (i.e. are the right personnel in place now?) as well as it did for the Ducks.

* The stated goal this season is to make the playoffs. The Leafs believe they have a good chance of doing just that. Whether or not they get there with the team currently assembled or after some mid-season moves remains to be seen. Without a doubt, though, some high-impact moves were made this summer that certainly put the opportunity of achieving their stated goal that much closer.

* IN For the Swim: Key new arrivals include, Phil Kessel (C), Francois Beauchemin (D), Mike Komisarek (D), Colton Orr (W), Garnet Exelby, Wayne Primeau (C/LW), Jonas Gustavsson (G), and Joey MacDonald (G).

* The additions of big and gritty players like Beauchemin, Komisarek, Orr and Exelby certainly advance the notions of bigger and meaner. Some nice names to imagine skating the ice along the blue line with Luke Schenn. Prized goalie from yon other side of the pond, Gustavsson could very well be the franchise goalie for the future. Kessel immediately becomes an impact player but will be quickly measured against high expectations. His response to the responsibilities on the score sheet may dictate team performance as the season unfolds.

Click here to read the rest of the preview (which includes the site’s unique Playoff Qualifying Curve and fantasy information) at the On Goal Analysis site.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring you a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NHL season. (Just scroll down on the OGA website and hit the calendar.) Here is the preview for the Tampa Bay Lightning…

Team Play: ISSUE – Upgrading… There has been a great bit of transformation with the freedom Brian Lawton has received to retool this team over the summer. That change is most likely to produce improved results on the ice this season.

The notes from training camp indicate a No. 1 line of Tanguay–Lecavalier–Downie/Veilleux from left to right, and Malone–Stamkos–St.Louis in the No. 2 position. That’s right, there’s a RW problem in No. 1 line. The Steve Downie experiment initially didn’t work but has now come back around full circle to try out again. The inability to find the RW and stick with somebody has disrupted their performance and has produced from all parties a total of 2 G’s and 7 A’s (with no points for Veilleux) and a return of Carter Ashton to Lethbridge of the WHL. Could Martin St. Louis slip back over there again? The issue would then be one of busting up the Malone-Stamkos-St.Louis line that has clicked very well as their 7 G’s and 4 A’s in pre-season attest. Once the Lightning gets these combos down, the Southeast Division will see a team coming at them with a top two pairing that is cause for alarm.

The top two pairings listed on defense according to Fox Sports’ depth charts are Ohlund-Hedman and Ranger-Krajicek. In those four blue liners, you are looking at an average of 25-30 points per man if last season projected to 82 games is any kind of indicator of their 2009/10 output. Of note is that from that top four, Coach Tocchet cannot say enough good things of No. 1 draft choice Victor Hedman. After those four, Mezaros and Walker are projected on line No. 3, but Kurtis Foster is leading defensive scoring in the pre-season with 1 G and 3 A’s making it a difficult decision not to keep him in the mix. (Coach Tocchet has indicated there is a ‘logjam’ at the defensive position and he is not kidding – besides the top seven mentioned above are Lashoff, Smaby and Wishart. Suffice it to say there will be no lack of defense back on the farm.) Lightning GM Lawton made his most strides in this area of the ice over the summer. Good blue line health this season is a must for solidifying this corps and stabilizing the team.

Click here to read the rest of the preview (which includes the site’s unique Playoff Qualifying Curve and fantasy information) at the On Goal Analysis site.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring you a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NHL season. (Just scroll down on the OGA website and hit the calendar.) Here is the preview for the St. Louis Blues…

Team Play: ISSUE – A Full Roster… There is excitement in the Blues camp this coming season. It is not only present in the fact that the team will open 2009/10 with a healthy roster. It is also manifest in players’ excitement to simply get back on the ice. An example was the report from Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and stltoday.com’s “Morning Skate” indicating two full teams on the ice for an off-season scrimmage in St. Louis back on Tuesday, 8 September where participation was entirely voluntary.

Rutherford has also indicated matchups are firming up for the forward lines. The No. 1 line looks to be McDonald-Backes-Perron from left to right, and Kariya-Tkackuk-Boyes on No. 2. These players on those lines have combined for five and nine points respectively in the pre-season after only five games. But fans are also likely to see Berglund and T.J. Oshie together (for six pre-season points) one pairing deeper which means there is good scoring potential on three of the four offensive lines. Derek Armstrong, tied with Kariya and Alexander Steen as the leading point-getters in the pre-season, is also making it hard to ship him off the regular season starting squad. Armstrong and Jay McClement look to be potential depth players that will make this team’s forward corps daunting.

Click here to read the rest of the preview (which includes the site’s unique Playoff Qualifying Curve and fantasy information) at the On Goal Analysis site.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring you a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NHL season. (Just scroll down on the OGA website and hit the calendar.) Here is the preview for the San Jose Sharks…

SUMMER SPLASH

* In the summer of discontent, where the fans and the media claimed big changes were needed to propel this regular-season wunderkind to the Finals, the San Jose Sharks changed very little. Some minor tweaks here, some chum there. But if there is anything the pre-season signing of Dany Heatley proves, it is the notion this club views the upcoming season as a chance for a good veteran squad, with opportunities of promotion for their prospects, to perform. And if they don’t, they will make a move or three during the course of the season to complete the team and solve their conundrum.

* And perhaps the biggest splashes of change in the Shark Tank will come during the season. Elite players will be viewed with a keen eye and we at OGA wouldn’t be surprised if more big trades were offered up during the course of the season depending on, well, the course of the season. Pre-pre-season moves have cleared up some salary cap space for future considerations. Sharks fans simply cannot endure another superior regular season followed by a sub-par playoff run.

* To set the stage for the internal changes of operation, the team has stripped Patrick Marleu of his Captaincy and taken the ‘A’ away from Joe Thornton. The idea is to see who earns these leadership roles through the course of camp and the pre-season. For Wednesday night’s game (09.23.09), the Sharks skated captain-less but with three ‘A’s – Marleau, Thornton, and Dan Boyle. Boyle is considered to be the fan-favorite as a fresh start for the Sharks’ Captaincy – and a deserving player/person.

Click here to read the rest of the preview (which includes the site’s unique Playoff Qualifying Curve and fantasy information) at the On Goal Analysis site.