Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- It’s not surprising that the Giants gave the Patriots all they could handle today in Foxboro. It’s not even all that surprising that New York won 24-20 despite the fact that New England never losses consecutive games under Bill Belichick. For whatever reason, Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have Belichick and Tom Brady’s numbers. But if you were asked before the game which quarterback would pull off a great fourth-quarter comeback to lead their team to victory, most people wouldn’t have said Eli. (Even when you consider how many fourth-quarter comebacks the G-Men have already tallied this season.) People scoffed when Manning said he considered himself to be in the same class as Brady back in August. Whether you think he does or not, consider that he has the best fourth-quarter passer rating of any quarterback in the league this season and that his Giants are 6-2 when everyone thought they’d be looking up at the Eagles in the NFC East standings right about now. He’s also been the winning quarterback the past two times the Giants have played the Patriots, so the whole “does Eli belong in Brady’s classâ€� conversation is rather moot at the moment. It’s all about wins, losses, and…nope, that’s about it.

- The Chiefs were due for a letdown. While they had won four in a row heading into Week 9, they seriously lack offensive explosion now that Jamaal Charles is out for the year and they would have lost to the Chargers on Monday night had Philip Rivers not decided to break out his best Rex Grossman impression late in the fourth quarter. That said, I don’t think anyone woke up this morning thinking, “Yeah, today is the day the Dolphins get their first win behind Matt Moore’s three touchdown passes and stingy defensive play.� I actually thought Miami would keep things close but 31-3? For the first time all season Tony Sparano will get a good night of sleep.

- The Rams pulled off the upset of the year last Sunday when they knocked off the Saints at home. So naturally they went out today and lost to an Arizona Cardinals team that started John Skelton at quarterback. St. Louis was given every opportunity to notch back-to-back victories for the first time all season and it screwed the pooch instead. The special teams unit was an absolute disaster in the fourth quarter and in overtime, as the Rams had a game-winning field goal blocked and missed four tackles on Patrick Peterson’s electrifying 99-yard punt return in OT. When his team played that brutal schedule to open the year, at least Steve Spagnuolo had an excuse for losing. There’s no excuse to lose to the John Skelton-led Cardinals when the game was practically in the bag.

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If I were smart I would change my college football predictions to “Tail Material� and my NFL predictions to “Simply f#$king Awful.�

But I’m not that smart.

While my college prediction record is well above .500 at 21-13-2 on the year, my NFL record continues to sink into the abyss. The Saints scored a meaningless touchdown with 17 seconds left against the Rams last Sunday to push the combined score over the total when, of course, I had the under 48.5. I knew it was going to be a bad day but considering I also had the Giants, Broncos and Seahawks, I didn’t know it was going to be a train wreck of an afternoon.

My 0-4, yes 0-4, Week 8 brings my season record to 13-19. Fade me now or forever hold your peace.

Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
The Giants have screwed me at every turn this year but I’m finally on to them. You see, if they’re predicted to win they’re liable to throw up a stinker because they have a tendency to play down to their competition. That’s why they almost lost to Arizona on the road, lost to Seattle at home and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat a winless Miami team last Sunday. But when the masses believe they’ll lose, there the G-Men are, up in everyone’s faces with an outright win. Go back to Week 3 when they played the Eagles on the road. They were 9-point underdogs and they won outright in impression fashion. New York has had New England’s number for years so I’ll gladly take the points with the Giants – Bill Belichick and his non-consecutive loss streak be damned.
THE PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS +9

Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
If Philip Rivers didn’t fumble late in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs on Monday night and the Chargers went on to win that game, then the spread for this game would have probably stayed around 3 points. Instead, San Diego is a 5.5-point home underdog against a Green Bay team that is undefeated but has showed signs of cracking. They haven’t played a complete game since their 49-23 win over the Broncos in Week 4. They stunk in the first half against Atlanta in Week 5, stunk in the second half against St. Louis in Week 6 and stunk in the fourth quarter against Minnesota in Week 7. Teams coming off their byes have generally struggled in the NFL this year, so I’m taking the Chargers and the points. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Diego win outright.
THE PICK: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +5.5

Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
I don’t trust the Falcons as far as I can throw them, which isn’t very far. They have rarely crushed teams under conservative coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. They always find a way to leave opponents in the game until the very last second and I don’t think this week will be any different, even though they’re playing a winless Indianapolis team. Atlanta also has a date coming up next week with New Orleans so this game has trap written all over it.
THE PICK: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7

Dolphins @ Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Here’s letdown game No. 2 on my list this week. The Chiefs must feel as though they’ve played a full 16-game season even though this is only Week 9. After starting the year 0-3, they’ve battled back with four-straight wins, including two against divisional opponents the past couple of weeks. Now they’re favored at home against a team they should beat in winless Miami. The Dolphins showed last Sunday that they’re not quite ready to throw in the towel and they’re going to win a game at some point. I don’t know if it’ll be this week or not that Miami collects its first win but I’m taking the points either way.
THE PICK: MIAMI DOLPHINS +4

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 13-19

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

While the rest of the NFL world is seemingly transfixed on whether or not the Colts would select Stanford’s Andrew Luck if they received the No. 1 overall pick next April, their injured franchise quarterback still hopes to play this season.

Peyton Manning told reporters on Thursday that he hopes to return to practice this year and still holds out hope of playing if doctors deem him clear to play. He underwent a second surgery on his neck on September 8 and even though he hasn’t played a snap, the Colts have yet to place him on injured reserve.

Of course, the Colts face a much bigger issue than whether or not to free up a roster spot by placing Manning on I.R. They must decide whether to opt out of Manning’s five-year contract or pay him a $28 million bonus to keep him on the 53-man roster. Some in Indianapolis who follow the team closely believe that Manning’s chances of playing again are less than 50-percent.

One of those followers is long-time beat writer Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianapolis Star, who says he’s “maybe even 30-70� on whether or not Manning takes another snap. Considering how close Wilson has been to the situation over the years, it’s rather eye opening to see the beat writer spit out those odds.

For now, it’s still a waiting game. Manning hopes he’ll return next season but surely the Colts would trade one down year for three-to-five more years of Peyton under center. But whether he’ll be able to play ever again is the question.

Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
There are a couple of really good matchups on this week’s schedule, including Ravens-Steelers, Bucs-Saitns and Packers-Chargers. But none of them compare to this one when you think about the intrigue surrounding this game. Not only were the Giants the ones to ruin the Patriots’ perfect season back in 2007, but New England is also coming off a loss and Bill Belichick never loses when coming off a loss. But for whatever reason, New York has had New England’s number over the years. Could you imagine how burned Belichick would be if the Giants were the ones to end his non-consecutive losing streak? Game…of…the…week.

Ravens @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET
It doesn’t get much better than this, especially when you considering how hot the Steelers are and how badly the Ravens beat Pittsburgh in Baltimore in Week 1. The Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots but Pittsburgh and Baltimore always get up for each other so don’t expect Mike Tomlin’s squad to suffer a letdown. But can Ben Roethlisberger bounce back from his rough Week 1 performance in order to create even more of a divide between these two teams in the AFC North? After brutal matchup after brutal matchup for the Sunday Night Football gang, finally NBC gets a good game.

Bears @ Eagles, 8:30PM ET, Monday
Are the Eagles back? That’s the question on everyone’s mind. They might be but don’t forget Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears, which includes losing 31-26 in Chicago last season. For whatever reason, Vick has never been able to get the best of Brian Urlacher and with the Bears having two weeks to prepare for this game, it’ll be interesting to see how Philly plays following its 34-7 dismantling of Dallas last Sunday.

Bucs @ Saints, 1:00PM ET
I wouldn’t want to be Raheem Morris’ Bucs this weekend. Not only are the Saints steamed that they lost to Tampa three weeks ago but they’re also coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Rams last Sunday. No wonder oddsmakers set the spread at New Orleans –9 despite the fact that this is a divisional game and should be close. If the Bucs can drum up some pressure on Drew Brees using their front four and force turnovers, Tampa could hand New Orleans its second straight loss. But I wouldn’t count on the Bucs pulling off the upset. The Saints have been a different team at home this year. A 62-7-type of team.

Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
We’re about to see what Norv Turner’s squad is made of. They had a win in the bag on Monday night before Philip Rivers fumbled it away and now the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions come in this Sunday. San Diego’s pass rush has been very good this season but its secondary has been picked apart at times. If the Chargers can get after Aaron Rodgers then there’s no reason to think that San Diego can’t pull off the upset – especially at home. But on the other side of the ball, if the Chargers can’t get their running game going then Rodgers may eventually start to pick apart the Bolts’ secondary. This is an extremely interesting matchup.

Jets @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
What a great matchup this will be between one of the best passing attacks in the league and one of the best pass defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense have moved the ball through the air at will but the Jets don’t wilt in coverage. That said, Rex Ryan better get more consistency out of his pass rush or else the Bills could walk away with yet another divisional win. The Jets can’t afford another divisional loss on their record.

Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons have a great opportunity to right the ship after a slow start. If they beat the Colts on Sunday, they’d be 5-3 heading into their big showdown with the Saints next week. But beware the trap. The Saints overlooked the Rams last Sunday and we all saw what happened. Because of the conservative ways of Mike Smith and OC Mike Mularkey, the Falcons have tendency to leave opponents in games. If they allow the Colts to stick around at home, there’s no reason Indy can’t pull off the upset. Atlanta better use New Orleans’ loss to St. Louis last Sunday as a warning of what could happen if it doesn’t come to play this weekend.

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Four spreads of note:

Buccaneers +9 @ Saints, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
For the record, I think this line is set right. The Saints have proven to be much better and much more explosive at home than they have on the road this season. But the Bucs just beat the Saints three weeks ago, are coming off a bye and didn’t just lose to the previously winless Rams. So why are they 9-point underdogs? It’s a revenge game for New Orleans in more ways than one but will the betting public be willing to lay nine points in order to take the Saints? It’ll be interesting to see where this line winds up but either way, it’s not falling to the key number of 7 or rising to the key number of 10 so bettors have a tough decision to make if they choose to wager on this game.

Giants +9 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
I’m starting to develop a very general, very subjective take when it comes to betting on Giants games. If they’re not expected to win, jump on them and be glad to take any points oddsmakers throw your way. If they’re expected to win, either fade them or run like hell. In Week 1 they were expected to beat the Redskins and lost outright as a 2.5-point favorite. Two weeks later when they were 9-point underdogs on the road against the Eagles, they won 29-16. When they were expected to beat the Seahawks in Week 5, they lost outright at home. And when they were expected to run all over the hapless Dolphins last Sunday, they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to win but failed to cover the 9.5-point spread. Granted, they did cover against the Rams in Week 2 and the Cardinals in Week 4 when they were expected to win. But both of those games were a little too close for comfort. What’s my point? I like the G-Men getting 9 points this Sunday, even with Bill Belichick and New England’s win-after-a-loss streak on the line. New York just has a habit of showing up when nobody thinks they will.

Rams +4 at Cardinals, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
I smell a trap. The Rams are coming off a huge upset of the Saints and now they’re 4-point underdogs against a brutal Arizona team? Why isn’t this a 1 or 2 point spread? Even 3 points I can see but 4? This one doesn’t make sense and when a spread doesn’t make sense you either go the opposite way of conventional thinking (in this case, take the Cardinals), or you lay off entirely. I just don’t see how the Cardinals could be favored by anything more than 3 points in a game where both teams are 1-6. Especially seeing as how Kevin Kolb will be a game-time decision with turf toe.

Ravens +3 @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET, Sunday
This game opened at 3.5 but is already down to 3. I think if oddsmakers left the spread at 3.5 they would get more three-way action but I have to believe that public bettors would be all over Pittsburgh with the line sitting at 3. Baltimore has looked like a speedboat without an engine the past two weeks while Pittsburgh has won four in a row, which includes its win over New England last Sunday. The Steelers might suffer a hangover from the Patriot game but I highly doubt it. They’re playing the Ravens; these two teams always get up to play each other. It’ll be interesting to see where this line winds up at kickoff.

2011 NFL Week 9 Point Spreads:

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Kurt Warner shook off a five-interception performance last week in a loss to the Panthers to throw for 261 yards and an eye-popping five touchdowns in a 41-21 rout of the Bears on Sunday. Warner didn’t throw any interceptions while completing 22-of-31 passes for 261 yards.

Warner did all this without Anquan Boldin, who sat out with an ankle injury. Larry Fitzgerald seemed to enjoy the spotlight, because he hauled in nine passes for 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The 83-year old Warner (I’m kidding) is now on pace for 32 touchdowns and 4,350 yards.

Of course, Warner and the Cards racked up these gaudy stats against a Chicago secondary that couldn’t cover Fat Albert and the gang. The Bears thought that Charles Tillman could cover Fitzgerald one-on-one, which was incredibly smart on their part. Remember Boldin didn’t play, so why Lovie Smith and his coaching staff thought Tillman could (or even should) go one-on-one with Fitzgerald was questionable to say the least. Speaking of questionable, the Bears also decided to throw the ball seven straight times to open the game. Apparently the words “offensive balance” mean nothing to Smith and Ron Turner.

Not to kick dirt in the faces of Chicago fans, but many Bear-lovers thought this would be a Super Bowl team after they traded for Jay Cutler. I’m fully aware that they’ve had injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but even if Brian Urlacher were healthy, the offensive line and secondary are still a mess and Matt Forte has dropped off the face of the earth (part of the reason is because the O-line hasn’t opened any holes). He only had 33 yards on five carries today, but when you’re trailing 31-7 at halftime you’re not going to get many carries.

Their 30-6 win over the hapless Browns gave the Bears some false confidence. But this loss today proves how far Chicago is from being a legitimate contender.

That crazy Chad Ochocinco is at it again.

According to the Baltimore Sun, Ochocinco sent gift baskets containing deodorant to the Ravens’ secondary and to linebackers Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis.

Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals’ flamboyant wide receiver, said today on 105.7 FM that he sent gift baskets containing deodorant to the Ravens’ secondary and to linebackers Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis.

“I not only sent them gift baskets, but I sent them something they could use so they don’t sweat,� Ochocinco said.

The Ravens and Bengals meet at 1 p.m. Sunday in Cincinnati.

Ray had this to say in response:

Not to take the fun out of this post, but I don’t think it was wise for Ocho to poke an angry dog with a stick. Considering the source, I’m sure Baltimore won’t get too riled up over the gift baskets, but the Ravens already have revenge on their minds after the Bengals beat them a couple weeks ago at their home turf and will desperately be seeking a win this weekend.

I think this is the week the Bengals start missing what Antwan Odom brought to the field. They didn’t need him in their Week 7 trouncing of the Bears, but the Ravens’ offense has been firing on all cylinders and just routed a good Denver defense last Sunday. Even for how good Cincinnati’s defense is, they still need the front four to generate some pressure or else Joe Flacco will pick them apart.

Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL after eight weeks in the books:

1. New Orleans Saints (7-0)
The Saints have the most balanced offensive attack in the NFL, have been a more aggressive and opportunistic defense under new coordinator Gregg Williams and are off to their best start in franchise history. There is a lot of season left, but this team has a Super Bowl-feeling about them.

2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
I don’t know if the 49ers necessarily laid out a blueprint on how to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts, but they at least showed how to contain the potent Indy offense for four quarters.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
I bet Brett Favre and Jared Allen wish they could play the Packers every week, because they’ve owned Green Bay in two games this season.

4. Denver Broncos (6-1)
Teams always learn more from losses than they do wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels and his coaching staff adjusts heading into Monday night against the Steelers.

5. New England Patriots (5-2)
We’ll see what kind of team the Pats are over their next five games: vs. Miami, at Indy, vs. the Jets and at New Orleans. Is Tom Brady back to his usual self or did he just benefit from putting up outrageous numbers against two bad teams in the Titans and Bucs the past two games?

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
The Bengals should be fresh coming off their bye, but they face two opponents in the Ravens and Steelers in the next two weeks that are looking to avenge losses to Cincinnati earlier in the season. Can the Bengals at least earn a split to stay atop the AFC North?

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
The Steelers are feeling good after beating the Vikings two weeks ago and then getting Week 8 off. But they travel to Denver and then host Cincinnati the next two weeks, so we’ll see whether or not their record isn’t just a byproduct of facing bad teams like the Titans, Lions, Browns and the ever-inconsistent Chargers.

8. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Wade Phillips’ defense is starting to do a better job of creating turnovers and getting pressure on the quarterback. In the Cowboys’ last two games, they’ve racked up five takeaways and seven sacks. It’s no surprise that Dallas won both of those games and they’ll need more of the same when they travel to Philadelphia on Sunday night.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
What an impressive win last Sunday as the Eagles thumped the Giants in every facet of the game. Can they do it again this week in another big divisional test?

10. New York Giants (5-3)
I don’t know what to make of this team – are they suffering from injuries or have the last three weeks been the norm? To date, the G-Men only have one win against a winning team, which came in Week 2 against the Cowboys. Their four other victories came against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders. Yikes.

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In a recent interview with reporters, owner Daniel Snyder said that the Redskins have “let everyone down.�

From ESPN.com:

In a rare, in-season interview with reporters, Snyder said at a charity event that the team is embarrassed by its 2-5 start and hopes to turn things around soon.

Snyder has been the subject of much ire from some fans. Signs critical of the owner have been confiscated at recent home games as part of the team’s new crackdown on all signs and banners at the stadium.

Snyder was asked about the sign ban but did not address the issue. Regarding the fans, he said: “We’ve let everyone down, including ourselves, and we know that and we’re just apologetic.”

The Redskins are like a recipe that has gotten out of hand. Over the years, Snyder has simply added his favorite ingredients to the pot without regard to how the final product will taste. And what he has now isn’t even editable.

Snyder better take a long, hard look in the mirror once this season is over and re-evaluate the approach he has taken with running his team into the ground. His free-spending ways don’t work and it’s painstakingly clear that they’ll never work. He needs to do a better job of allowing the people he hires to run the football operations…to actually run the football operations.

He created this mess and now it’s up to him to figure out how to get the Skins back on the right track. Everything starts at the top.

Each year the NFL provides examples of how teams can rise from the basement to the penthouse in just one offseason. 2008 is no different, as the Ravens, Falcons, Dolphins and Jets have all won as many games this year as they did all of last season.

Here are four ways NFL teams can turn around their misfortune in just one offseason along examples from the 2008 season.

1. Get a strong, football-minded front office person to construct the team.
2008 Example: Miami Dolphins
It’s safe to say at this point that Bill Parcells knows what he’s doing. He’s won everywhere he’s gone and it would have been naïve to think he wouldn’t turn around the Dolphins at some point. But the fact that he’s done it this quickly is remarkable and speaks volumes for how necessary it is for teams to have good front office people in place to run the day-to-day operations. Parcells is a football-minded guy and he can judge talent. He parted ways with long-time veterans Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor because he knew they weren’t going to play key roles in Miami’s future. Sure the Dolphins lost veteran talent, but they also were focused on moving forward. Parcells also went out and found a competent quarterback in Chad Pennington and drafted a franchise left tackle in Jake Long. Now the Fish can compete on a weekly basis, unlike last season when they were dead in the water (no pun intended) before games even started. Teams can’t win if their front office makes huge draft mistakes and can’t fit individual pieces into one big puzzle. Credit the Dolphins for spending big on a proven winner in Parcells. They might not make the playoffs this year, but they’re competing again and soon enough, the postseason will become a reality.