I missed out on my first 4-0 Sunday last week by picking the Steelers against the Saints, which was a mistake. It was a clear trap and had I trusted my gut, it would have been a clean sweep. I’ll take 3-1 every week though.

On to this week’s picks…

Chiefs (5-2) @ Raiders (4-4), 4:15PM ET
I’m not buying this latest offensive surge from the Raiders. If he can stay healthy, there’s no question Darren McFadden can knock on the door of elite. But this is still Oakland Raider football, where consistency goes to die. This pick is less about the Chiefs and more about the Raiders coming back to earth, although I like Kansas City. Do I think they’ll keep up their strong play? Not really, but their defense is strong and their offense started to figure things out before last Sunday’s dud against Buffalo. Chiefs win outright, although I’ll gladly take the points with them playing on the road.
THE PICK: CHIEFS +3

Chargers (3-5) @ Texans (4-3), 1:00PM ET
The Chargers, your official spokes team for traps. The past two weeks oddsmakers have laid traps with the Bolts, as they were favored against the Patriots and Titans at home. This week they go on the road (where they’re 0-4, mind you) to Houston and they’re favored again? Without Antonio Gates? Something smells like old asparagus. You look at this line and it screams out to take the Texans, which is exactly why I’m taking the Bolts. Take that oddsmakers!
THE PICK: CHARGERS –3

Bucs (5-2) @ Falcons (5-2), 1:00PM ET
I’ll admit I’m not a big Bucs fan. I think their 5-2 record is a mirage and while it was cute of Raheem Morris to build up his team’s confidence by saying they were the best in the NFC, this team will come back down to earth at some point. That said, what a total slap in the face to be a 9-point dog against a team that they’ve played tough throughout the years. I know the Falcons are good at home (nearly unbeatable under Matt Ryan), but Tampa has always gives Atlanta fits. This is going to be a hard-fought, nasty, tooth-and-nail, down-to-the-wire finish in the Georgia Dome and I’ll gladly take the nine points.
THE PICK: BUCS +9

Saints (5-3) @ Panthers (1-6), 1:00PM ET
The NFC South is an interesting division. The Saints always have a hard time with the Panthers, who always have a hard time with the Falcons, who always have a hard time with the Bucs, who always have a hard time with the Saints. But not this Sunday. Carolina is putrid and if it weren’t for Buffalo, we’d be referring to this team as the worst in the league. And without DeAngelo Williams, they don’t stand much of a chance this Sunday against the Saints. New Orleans may have righted the ship with a win last Sunday night against Pittsburgh, so maybe we’ll start to see glimpses of the ’09 Saints over the next couple of weeks. That, or at least a diet version of the ’09 Saints.
THE PICK: SAINTS –6.5

Season Record: 13-14-1

Here are my top 5 picks for Week 9 against the spread. As usual, fade at will…

Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1), 8:30PM ET, Monday
This game set up nicely for the Steelers, who have won four in a row, are coming off a bye and are playing a Denver team that was thumped last Sunday by the Ravens. But I fully expect Josh McDaniels and the Broncos to learn from their loss last week to Baltimore and rebound on Monday night. Denver is always a tough place to play – just ask the Cowboys and Patriots, whom the Broncos beat earlier this year at Invesco Field. I don’t expect Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to have a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s excellent defense, but I do think Denver’s defense will force a couple turnovers to set the offense up in good field position. Linebacker Elvis Dumervil has been a beast this season and Ben Roethlisberger has always had trouble holding onto the ball. While some will start to doubt the Broncos after last week, I’m holding strong that this is a good football team and will prove it with a small upset Monday night.
Odds: Steelers –3.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Steelers 17.

Texans (5-3) at Colts (7-0), 1:00PM ET
This game has trap written all over it. The Texans have won three straight and four of their last five, while the Colts finally looked beatable last week in their 18-14 win over the 49ers. Your head and gut tell you that Houston will be able to hang with Indy this weekend and at the very least cover the 9-point spread, if not win outright. But don’t be fooled – the Colts are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Colts and have covered in six of those 10 games. While the ATS trends aren’t impressive, Peyton Manning should have his way with an improving, but suspect Houston defense at home. With Bob Sanders sidelined again, the Texans should score, but it’s not like Indy isn’t used to not having Sanders on the field. This one will be a little bit of a shoot out, but I see the Colts winning by a decent margin in the end.
Odds: Colts –9.
Prediction: Colts 35, Texans 24.

Cardinals (4-3) at Bears (4-3), 1:00PM ET
There’s no doubt that Kurt Warner struggled last week in his five-interception performance. But keep in mind that Carolina does have the best pass defense in the league, so while the Cards’ loss to the Panthers was shocking, it’s not like they were attempting to throw the ball against air. Arizona has played much better on the road this season than it has at home, which is a stark contrast from last year. I like Warner and the Cards to rebound this week, even without receiver Anquan Boldin, who is likely out with an ankle injury. Chicago’s secondary has been inconsistent all season and if Warner isn’t gun shy after throwing five picks last week, then he should be able to test the Bears throwing vertically. On the other side, I see Arizona limiting Matt Forte and making Chicago’s offense one-dimensional, like many opponents have done this year. While the Bears have an advantage playing at home, I think they have false confidence after an unimpressive win last week against the Browns and if the Cards can get up early, they should win outright.
Odds: Bears –3.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Bears 20.

Redskins (2-5) at Falcons (4-3), 1:00PM ET
The Falcons need Michael Turner’s 151-yard effort against the Saints to not be an aberration by the norm. Not that he has to rush for 150-plus yards a game, but if he can start churning out 100-plus yard efforts on a near-weekly basis that will make Atlanta’s offense more balanced and take some pressure off Matt Ryan, who has been struggling of late. The only thing the Redskins have going for themselves right now is that they had last week off. But they won’t have Chris Samuels and Chris Cooley on Sunday and their offense will once again struggle to generate points. The Falcons are coming off an emotional loss on a short week, but they desperately need a win and therefore won’t overlook a soft Washington team.
Odds: Falcons –10.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Redskins 16.

Packers (4-3) at Buccaneers (0-7), 1:00PM ET
If there’s one thing the Packers have done this year, it’s beaten bad teams. Three of their four wins have come against horrible teams and Green Bay has thumped every one of them. The Packers are far from perfect, but they’re going to light up a bad Tampa defense that supplies little to no pressure on the quarterback. The Bucs are also starting rookie Josh Freeman, who will be making the first start of his career. Expect plenty of three and outs, turnovers and sacks as the Packers roll.
Odds: Packers –9.5.
Prediction: Packers 30, Bucs 10.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
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