It looks like I’m starting to inch closer to respectability with my NFL predictions. The Steelers, Chiefs and Broncos (by a small miracle) covered last week, while the Packers were a fourth-quarter dud against the Vikings.

That gave me a 3-1 Sunday for Week 7, which puts me at 13-15 on the year. I need one more 3-1 effort today to get me back to .500 and then I’ll really tear things up in the second half. Just you wait and see. Oh, just you wait and see.

Saints @ Rams, 1:00PM ET
After they dropped 62 points on the Colts last week, I’m sure public bettors have been racing to the window to take the over with the Saints today. The Rams have allowed the second-most points this year, just behind…yup, the Colts. But 48.5 points seems way too high for me, although I understand why oddsmakers have jacked up the total given the Saints’ offensive output last weekend. New Orleans plays things more conservatively on the road and I don’t see St. Louis helping cover the over with A.J. Feeley at the helm. I like the under.
THE PICK: UNDER 48.5

Dolphins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
No matter how well Brandon Marshall tries to spin it, the Dolphins have checked out. Reggie Bush says the team stinks, while Yeremiah Bell says that Reggie Bush stinks. The funny part is that half the locker room seemingly agrees with Bush while the other half agrees with Bell. That’s not good for locker room dynamics and considering the Dolphins have to hit the road to face a well-rested New York squad, I like the G-Men to roll today. Of course, the last time I picked the Giants they lost outright to the Seahawks at home, which caused one of our loyal readers to request that I don’t pick them anymore. Sorry snd_dsr, but I’m going back to the well.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5

Lions @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
The Lions are a complete mess and I get three points? Sign me up! Detroit is better than Denver but Detroit also has zero running game, its quarterback is banged up and its defense can’t stop the run. Oh, and they have to travel cross-country to play a team that seemingly has new life under Tim Tebow. For at least one more week I’m going to UNLEASH THE TEBOW!
THE PICK: Broncos +3

Bengals @ Seahawks, 4:15PM ET
Seattle’s quarterback situation is an abomination but no matter how ugly things can get for the Seahawks, they usually play well at home. Seattle is a tough environment for any quarterback to play in, nevertheless a rookie. Andy Dalton has certainly surpassed expectations to this point, but I think he’ll make a couple of big mistakes to cost the Bengals today. Seattle’s defense hasn’t played poorly this season and if their offense can muster double-digit points I think they win outright.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +1

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

Four spreads of note:

Patriots –3 @ Steelers, 4:15PM ET
Even though both teams have five wins on the year, I think this line is set right. The public is a huge supporter of the Patriots and the Steelers have played inconsistent football all season. That said, New England’s defense can be had through the air and Pittsburgh’s passing game is among the top 5 in the league. If Ben Roethlisberger can protect the football and connect on a couple of big plays, there’s absolutely no reason to believe Pittsburgh can’t win this game outright – especially at home.

Cowboys +3.5 @ Eagles, 8:20PM ET
It’ll be interesting to see where this line winds up at kickoff. After weeks of being crushed by Philadelphia’s poor play, people started to hop off the Eagles bandwagon. But maybe Philly’s week off has made folks change their perspective on Andy Reid’s squad. That said, Dallas is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games against Philadelphia and 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games versus the Eagles. Philly’s run defense is brutal so if the ‘Boys can get DeMarco Murray going again, they may pick up a huge divisional win on Sunday night.

Lions –3 @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
Matthew Stafford is presumably questionable for this game with an ankle injury but the Lions are 3-point favorites. That’s interesting considering the Broncos are at home and have old Uncle Mo on their side. Despite his poor play for 56 minutes last week, Tim Tebow has breathed new life into the Broncos and considering Detroit has to travel cross-country, has no running game, and can’t stop the run, I’m a little surprised to see them favored by a field goal. Maybe oddsmakers feel as though they have one more week before the public starts to jump off Detroit’s bandwagon.

Bengals –3 @ Seahawks, 4:15PM ET
This isn’t a very attractive game from a fan’s standpoint, but it’s an intriguing matchup betting-wise. The Bengals are 4-2 but they’re about to travel cross-country to a hostile environment with a rookie quarterback. I know Andy Dalton has played fairly well this season but the Seahawks are always a different animal when they’re in their home digs. Just knowing what we do about the Hawks and how they play at home, I would take the points here (even with Cincinnati coming off a bye).

2011 NFL Week 8 Point Spreads & Totals:

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Here are my quick-hit picks for Week 8 in the NFL:

Worth being in trouble with your significant other for:

Vikings (6-1) at Packers (4-2), 4:15PM ET
I think the Packers will have a little something for Brett Favre this time around. I realize he was a legend in Green Bay, but the Packer faithful need to boo this man just as they would Steve Young or Troy Aikman. As long as the Packers somehow figure out a way to get a body in front of Jared Allen, I think they beat a Minnesota team coming off an emotional loss in Pittsburgh last week. Call me crazy, but I don’t think this one will be as close as many expect.
Odds: Packers –3.
Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 17.

Giants (5-2) at Eagles (4-2), 1:00PM ET
The Giants are hoping to get a few defensive starters back this week (most notably Michael Boley and Chris Canty), but their concern right now should be moving the ball against a Philadelphia defense that played inspired last week in Washington. (Of course, it was Washington.) Both of these offenses struggled last week trying to move the chains consistently and I can see turnovers playing a huge role in this key NFC East battle. Considering the Eagles lead the league in turnover margin, I think they get a win at home. It’s hard to fathom the G-Men losing three straight, but outside of their Week 2 win against the Cowboys, they haven’t been good against teams with winning records this season.
Odds: Giants –1.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 17.

Broncos (6-0) at Ravens (3-3), 1:00PM ET
The Broncos haven’t given anyone a reason not to trust them. They’ve played great defensively, have remained balanced offensively and continue to prove doubters wrong. That said, I think this is the week they suffer their first loss. The Ravens are desperate and Denver doesn’t really have the explosive passing attack to take advantage of Baltimore’s issues in the secondary. I’m willing to bet the Ravens’ coaching staff figured a few things out in their off week and Baltimore will come out ready to play on Sunday.
Odds: Ravens –3.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Broncos 17.

Falcons (4-2) at Saints (6-0), 8:30PM ET Monday
The Falcons are in trouble. Their secondary is starting to show the same problems it had in preseason and Drew Brees should take advantage of that and torch Chris Houston and company. The only chance Atlanta has is to force turnovers on defense and get Michael Turner going in order to leave Brees on the sidelines. I don’t see it happening.
Odds: Saints –10.
Prediction: Saints 38, Falcons 24.

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Sunday’s Best: Giants (5-1) at Steelers (5-1), 4:15 PM ET
Does a matchup get more physical than this? The biggest news surrounding this game on the injury front is that Willie Parker is expected to return to the Steelers’ backfield this week after missing last Sunday’s win over the Bengals after aggravating his knee injury. He faces a tough front seven of the Giants, who bounced back last Sunday against San Francisco after being embarrassed on Monday night football two weeks ago in Cleveland. New York’s defense complied six sacks, forced four fumbles, intercepted two passes and held the 49ers to 2 of 10 on third downs. One thing to note is that the Steelers were manhandled by an Eagles team early in the season that runs a similar defensive scheme as the Giants do. Expect the G-Men to game plan against the run while blitzing Ben Roethlisberger early and often. Pittsburgh’s banged up offensive line is ranked 28th in sacks allowed, which doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Big Ben this weekend. Still, expect a Steeler defense pumped for the opportunity to stifle Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs and the rest of New York’s explosive offense.

Upset Watch: Falcons (4-2) at Eagles (3-3), 1:00 PM ET
Bragging alert: I’ve called the last four upset-watches and five of the first seven this season. And if Martin Gramatica wasn’t awful, I would have nailed the Saints over the Broncos in Week 3 as well. I’m going out on a major limb this week in calling a Falcons upset over the Eagles. Not only is Philly a 9-point favorite, but the Eagles are also 9-0 under Andy Reid coming off the bye. But I’ve bought hard into the Matt Ryan hype and happen to believe Atlanta is better than what people are making them out to be. They trust Ryan to make throws in the passing game, can run the ball with Michael Turner and have beaten two quality teams in the Packers and Bears in their last two games. For them to walk away with a win on Sunday, however, the defense will need to step up. Donovan McNabb is shredding opposing defenses and will likely have Brian Westbrook, Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis back from injuries. But the Falcons have moved the ball well this year, are protecting Ryan (which will be huge this week against Jim Johnson’s blitz-happy defense) and are coming off a bye themselves. They have a lot of momentum after the win over the Bears and have been a more physical team under first-year head coach Mike Smith. A win might be out of reach, but at the very least, I’m calling for a Falcons cover.

Intriguing Matchup: Chargers at Saints, 1:00 PM ET
Both of these teams were highly regarded as playoff contenders in preseason – if not Super Bowl contenders. But both of struggled with inconsistency so far and the Saints will be without Reggie Bush for the next 3 to 4 weeks. LaDainian Tomlinson has not looked like the same MVP back he’s been in recent years, but QB Philip Rivers has more than picked up the slack. Which one of these teams can get back on track this week playing overseas in London? Chances are, the winner might be able to save its season while the loser could start to fall off the playoff radar. (Especially New Orleans, who now plays in a surprisingly tough NFC South.)

Other Notable Games:
Cardinals (4-2) at Panthers (5-2)
Had it not been for the Giants-Steelers game, this matchup might have been the best the NFL had to offer this week. Each team is starting to make some noise, but both have also looked incredibly bad at times this year (see the Cardinals effort against the Jets and the Panthers against the Buccaneers).

Buccaneers (5-2) at Cowboys (4-3), 1:00 PM ET
No Tony Romo again for Dallas – will Monte Kiffin’s defense eat Brad Johnson alive?

Colts (3-3) at Titans (6-0), 8:30 PM ET Monday
The Monday night matchup is a great one. Can Peyton Manning turn around the Colts’ misfortunes this year against the surprising undefeated Titans?