Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Earlier this week the Broncos said that they’re not going to change their offense with Tim Tebow taking over at quarterback. Then on Sunday, they kept their game plan ultra-conservative and hardly called any screen passes or high-percentage throws to help build his confidence while being dominated for 56 minutes by a winless Miami team. Do they want the kid to fail? Are they trying to prove that they were right by not starting him over Kyle Orton? Are they trying to stick it to all of the fans that have basically begged the organization to play Tebow? Either way, I absolutely love what the former Gator did today. Despite his coaching staff’s unwillingness to put him in position to succeed, he found a way to pull off a miraculous victory with some help from his defense and kicker Matt Prater. It wasn’t hard to figure that he would score a couple of touchdowns and compile over 200 total yards. But the way he did it was marvelous. The Broncos did nothing until four minutes left in the fourth, when he basically willed them to victory. He’s too nice of a guy to say it, but that had to feel good to stick it up his critics’ asses for just one week.

- While Denver refused to change its offense in efforts to help Tebow, Minnesota did a nice job of using designed roll-outs and plays that maximized rookie Christian Ponder’s strengths at quarterback. The rookie will be seeing Charles Woodson (2 INTs) in his nightmares for a while, but he showed a lot of grit bouncing back in the fourth quarter to nearly lead the Vikings to an upset over the still-undefeated Packers. Ponder is clearly an upgrade over Donovan McNabb and his performance today was definitely something to build on. Green Bay’s defense has struggled all year but for Ponder to have Minnesota in position to win in the fourth quarter was something not a lot of people expected.

- Anyone who watched DeMarco Murray play at Oklahoma knew he was a versatile player with a bright future. He did everything for the Sooners in his time at OU and the Cowboys really got a steal last April when they selected him with the 71st overall pick in the third-round. Nobody envisioned him rushing for 253 yards (a Dallas single-game record) in one game, but it was only a matter of time before Murray turned heads. Granted, 91 of those yards came on one play and he did face a pathetic St. Louis run defense. But given all the issues the Cowboys have had at running back over the years, his feat today had to be refreshing for Jerry Jones and Co. Here’s hoping the 23-year-old back can avoid injuries and build off of this incredible performance.

- I made it clear in my predictions this week that I liked the Chiefs to at least cover the 3.5-point spread in Oakland. But 28-0 with two 50-yard pick-sixes? Yeah, no – didn’t see that coming. Suddenly Kansas City is only a game back of San Diego and Oakland in the win column. That’s quite a contrast to where the Chiefs were a month ago, when head coach Todd Haley was nearly fired for the team’s ugly 0-3 start.

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While my college picks continue to do well, a .500 record for my NFL predictions seems to be out of the question. After hitting the 49ers and Packers in the early games, the Saints were dropkicked by the Bucs and the Vikings…oh, the Vikings.

Following my 2-2 effort in Week 6, that puts my season record at 10-14 on the year.

Broncos @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET
I was one of the many who chastised the Broncos for trading back into the first round to take Tim Tebow in 2010. But now that it has become almost cliché to bag on Tebow’s abilities as a passer, I’m flat out rooting for him now. RELEASE THE TEBOW! From a performance standpoint, you can’t get much worse than the Miami defense. Their pass rush isn’t that bad but what’s the difference? They can’t stop the pass or run so teams can still pretty much do whatever they want against the Dolphins. Tebow will probably throw for 87 yards but give me two I say TWO touchdowns in a Denver victory today.
THE PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +1

Steelers @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Here’s the way I’m viewing this game. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite but let’s toss out the spread for a second. I ask myself, ‘Do I think the Steelers will win?’ The answer is yes. And if I believe they’re going to win, then they’re probably going to beat a bad Arizona team (which has proven it can’t finish games) by more than a field goal, right? Again, the answer is yes. (At least in my eyes.) The Steelers have been models of inconsistency thus far, but if you follow that same model then they should roll today. After the Ravens hammered them 35-7 in Week 1, the Steelers covered as 14-point favorites the following week against the Seahawks. After they lost to the Texans in Week 4, they covered easily as a 3-point favorite against the Titans in Week 5. And after they barely squeaked by the Jaguars last Sunday, I expect them to cover against Arizona. It’s science.
THE PICK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS –3.5

Chiefs @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
Every time I’m utterly confused by a point spread it usually winds up burning me in the end. The Raiders opened as 3-point point home favorites against the Chiefs when it was presumed that Kyle Boller was going to be Oakland’s starter. That makes sense. The Raiders are at home, they’re the better team and the old rule is that home field advantage is worth three points. Thus, Oakland –3. But after they acquired Carson Palmer on Tuesday and it was announced that he was playing, the line climbed a full point to 4.5. Then the damn thing jumped up to 5.5 as the public presumably hammered the Palmer-led Raiders. So what you’re telling me is that Palmer is worth a full 1.5 points? Are you kidding me? I know this isn’t the same the Chiefs team that won the AFC West last year but they are 2-0 in their last two games and 3-2 against the spread this year. They’re also coming off a bye and playing an opponent they’re incredibly familiar with (sans Palmer, that is). Plus, and this is the biggest reason why I can’t understand the line, Palmer hasn’t played in a live game since January 2. Now, after reporting on Friday that Palmer might not start, the line is back down to 3.5. Either way, give me the points. I don’t trust either Palmer nor Boller.
THE PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3.5

Packers @ Vikings, 4:15PM ET
The Packers haven’t played a full game in a couple of weeks, as they struggled in the first-half against the Falcons in Week 5 and completely took their foot off the gas in the second-half last Sunday against the Rams. That scares me, although not as much as what Aaron Rodgers is going to do in a dome against Minnesota’s brutal secondary. Even if rookie Christian Ponder plays well in his first career start, he isn’t going to keep pace with Rodgers and the Packers. I’ll probably get burned by this same Viking team that I predicted would upset Chicago last Sunday but just like the Chiefs-Raiders game, I’m not going to over-think this one. (I also love that the spread has stayed below the key number of 10.)
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –9

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

Broncos @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET
Tim Tebow said that the Denver coaching staff didn’t change the team’s offensive scheme to fit the quarterback’s skill set during the bye week. That makes sense. I mean why would any coaching staff want to try and play to their quarterback’s strengths? Bill Belichick doesn’t do that with Tom Brady. Mike McCarthy doesn’t do that with Aaron Rodgers. Both of those teams largely keep the ball on the ground and let Brady and Rodgers be the game managers they are. (I hate that I even have to write this but I know some people will misconstrue things: I’m being sarcastic.) While I like Tebow’s chances of succeeding this weekend in Miami no matter what the scheme is, I think the Broncos should have styled their offense around what he does best (i.e. being creative in both the run and the pass). But what do I know? I’m a doctor, not an offensive coordinator.

Falcons @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
It’s all well and good that the Falcons want to get back to Michael Turner and their ball-control ways, but at some point OC Mike Mularkey better figure out how to beat teams through the air. Matt Ryan is the only quarterback in the NFC South who has yet to throw for over 300 yards in a game this season and he ranks 17th in the league in overall passing yards. With Julio Jones (hamstring) expected to miss another week, it would be wise for the Falcons to keep the ball on the ground against the Lions’ suspect run defense. But again, at some point Mularkey has to do his job and figure out a way to let Ryan soar. The most obvious solution is to put him in the no-huddle full-time, but Mularkey and Mike Smith’s conservative ways just won’t allow it.

Texans @ Titans, 1:00PM ET
Hey Matt Schaub, it’s go time buddy. The AFC South is yours for the taking and while I understand that you lost your best playmaker and your defense is now without its best weapon, it’s high time you raise your game. Arian Foster is seeing eight man fronts so there’s no reason for you not to exploit defenses with your arm – Andre Johnson or no Andre Johnson. Tennessee’s pass rush is one of the weakest in the league, so figure it out and get your team a win, Matt.

Chargers @ Jets, 1:00PM ET
“The more we get comfortable, we start playing pitch and catch and I’m doing my thing out there, the offense is going to go through the roof,” said Plaxico Burress in regards to Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense. Right, because naturally Plax is the key to whether or not New York’s offense is going to eventually get out of its funk. I think the Jets have it right in giving Shonn Greene an increased workload. The only way they’re going to really get their offense going is relying on the ground game to open things up for Sanchez. Burress is probably right when he suggests that he and Sanchez need to develop more chemistry, but the key to this offense is Greene and the ground attack.

Redskins @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
Mike Shanahan is in a mess of his own making. Everyone knew going into the season that Rex Grossman is fine in small doses, but over the course of a season he’s going to hurt you. Thus, now that Shanahan has switched things up and is starting John Beck on Sunday, he better win. The Panthers are better than their 1-5 record would indicate but this is a game the Redskins have to win if they want to keep pace with the Giants in the NFC East.

Seahawks @ Browns, 1:00PM ET
Peyton Hillis has an injured hamstring and won’t practice on Thursday. His agent has advised him not to play in this game, or the next 12. If a case of the sniffles is equal to missing one game, then an injured hamstring must be equal to 13 missed games. Hillis and his agent just can’t be too careful when it comes to the King of Fumbles’ health.

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Four spreads of note:

Falcons +3.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET Sunday
Apparently the Falcons showed enough last week in their win over the Panthers to make people believe they’re starting to turn things around. Either that or folks are slowly starting to climb off the Lions bandwagon. The spread for this game opened at Detroit –4.5 and within a day it was down to 3.5. Considering Atlanta was viewed as a potential Super Bowl team this season, the Falcons look like a value getting over a field goal. With Julio Jones iffy to return from a hamstring injury, we could see a lot of Michael Turner again this Sunday, especially considering Detroit has had its issues with stopping the run. The Falcons relied heavily on Turner last week against Carolina, as he rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Personally, I think the total is the most attractive play in this game. Forty-seven points seems way to high for two teams that have struggled at times offensively.

Bears -1 @ Bucs, 1:00PM ET Sunday
The Bucs beat the Saints last week at home and they’re now a 1-point underdog against a Chicago team that hasn’t won back-to-back games all season? I guess that’s not too surprising seeing as how ugly the Bucs have looked at times, but it’s not like the Bears have performed any better away from Solider Field (0-2 with two non-covers at New Orleans and Detroit). There’s value here somewhere but it’s hard to figure out which teams will show up this Sunday, especially seeing as how the game is being played in London. Both of these squads have had rather uneven performances from week-to-week this season.

Steelers –3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
The spread in this game seems awfully low to me, even when you account for home field advantage. That’s probably because the Steelers have looked great one week (see Titans), only to come out the next week and barely beat an inferior opponent (see Jaguars). If the Cardinals have any chance of getting back into the NFC West race, they need to win on Sunday. The problem is that Kevin Kolb hasn’t been the quarterback Arizona thought it was getting when it traded for him this offseason. The Cards have been in every game this year except their disastrous Week 5 showing in Minnesota, but Kolb just hasn’t gotten it done in the fourth quarter.

Chiefs +4 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET, Sunday
It’s funny, the Raiders opened as a 3-point favorite with Kyle Boller under center and as soon as they announced that Carson Palmer would start, the spread climbed to 4 points. So Palmer, who hasn’t taken a snap in a live game since January, is worth a full point in a divisional game? I know he’s familiar with the offense thanks to the time he spent with Hue Jackson in Cincinnati but so much for easing the guy in. That speaks volumes towards Oakland’s confidence in Boller. It’ll be interesting to see how this game plays out come Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 8 Point Spreads & Totals:

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A first-round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013 that could become a first-rounder based on playing time and incentives? For Carson Palmer?

Put it on the board: Mike Brown just hit a grand slam, then came up in the same inning and hit another grand slam. If the conditional pick winds up being a first-rounder and Brown actually nets two starters with the selections he received for Palmer, then he would have hit for the cycle while doing a handstand and eating a hot dog all at the same time.

Palmer could go on to lead the Raiders to the Super Bowl and Mike Brown would still wind up being a winner in all of this. Palmer was never going to play for the Bengals again. He said as much while digging his heels into the ground and standing firm on his retirement threat this offseason. The Bengals would have been fortunate to have received a third-rounder for Palmer and gotten his salary off the books. Instead, they net a first-round pick and another selection that could turn into a first-rounder.

Granted, we don’t know all the details yet. That conditional first-rounder may only be if Palmer wins two Super Bowls in Oakland and winds up with a bust in the Hall of Fame. But to receive one first-round pick for him was a massive victory for Brown and the Bengals. Let’s not forget that this is the same Palmer whose arm strength and mobility appeared to be declining badly last season and who hasn’t played in a live game (preseason or otherwise) since January 2.

Before I get too swept up in the sticker price for Palmer, let me state that I understand why the Raiders made this move. Due to Jason Campbell’s season-ending injury, they’ve mortgaged their future for the chance to win now. They know that if Darren McFadden stays healthy they’ll remain competitive and it’s not as if Palmer doesn’t know the offense. He and coach Hue Jackson spent time together in Cincinnati, so it theoretically shouldn’t take long for him to get up to speed. Plus, with Campbell and Kyle Boller set to become free agents at the end of the year, Terrelle Pryor was the only quarterback on the roster signed past 2011. Eventually they needed to address the position and had a chance to trade for a franchise quarterback, so they took the risk with Palmer.

That said, I still wouldn’t have made this deal. Not in today’s NFL where building through the draft is still the answer to winning over the long haul. Ask the Packers and Steelers, who have made minimal free agent signings over the years while combining to win three Super Bowls in the last six seasons.

Plus, it’s not like Palmer is in his prime or has won anything of substance as a professional. I would use the term “franchise quarterback” loosely when it comes to describing his talents. When the Bears traded a first, a third, and Kyle Orton to the Broncos for Jay Cutler, the latter was just about to turn 26. The Bears mortgaged their future for a young signal caller who played a position they had trouble filling for over two decades. Palmer is 31 and has already showed signs of decline.

The best case scenario for Oakland is that Palmer just needs a change of scenery and will be motivated to prove he still has a couple of years left in the tank. Maybe he gets to Oakland and has a resurgence just like Rich Gannon did early last decade.

But that’s the best-case scenario. The worst-case is that Palmer’s game continues to deteriorate, the Raiders lose two high draft picks and wind up paying an aging quarterback nearly $30 million to be Pryor’s tutor. (Assuming Oakland still views Pryor as the future, that is.)

For Brown and the Bengals, there is no worst-case scenario. Palmer was done in Cincinnati and if Andy Dalton pans out, the Bengals have already filled their need at quarterback. For once, Brown’s stubbornness finally paid off.

Anthony Stalter can’t tweet today (he’s at an undisclosed sports bar in Chicago after attending his high school reunion last night), but I’ll be tweeting under @fantasytips.

Last season, all the Arizona Cardinals heard about was how they couldn’t win on the road, they couldn’t play defense in crunch time and they couldn’t win a game at night when the moon was in full view and there were precisely 50,139 visible stars in the sky and not 49,349.

On Sunday night, the Cardinals went into Giants Stadium and beat New York, 24-17. It was Arizona’s third road victory of the season in as many tries and its third straight win since its 1-2 start. The Cards won largely with defense, as they forced four turnovers, including three Eli Manning interceptions.

Down 24-17 with less than five minutes remaining, the Giants had two opportunities to tie the game. But Arizona’s defense stymied them twice — once after Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled at midfield and another when Antrel Rolle intercepted Manning along the sideline to end New York’s chances.

Pundits were ready to crown the 49ers the new NFC West champs after their 3-1 start, but they look awfully overrated these days after two straight losses. Suddenly, everyone is fixing their eyes on the Cardinals again.

They still can’t run the ball and their passing attack doesn’t seem as potent as it was last year, but the Cards currently have the best run defense in the league and their running game is starting to show signs of life with rookie Beanie Wells. If they can continue to play defense the way they did last night in East Rutherford, they’ll once again become the team to beat in the NFC West. (If they haven’t already.)

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Chiefs’ running back Larry Johnson took a shot at Todd Haley on his Twitter account after Kansas City’s 37-7 loss to the Chargers on Sunday, criticizing his head coach for not having NFL playing experience.

Here’s the tweet:

My father played for the coach from “rememeber the titans”. Our coach played golf. My father played for redskins briefley. Our coach. Nuthn

Johnson’s father is Penn State’s defensive line coach and apparently he didn’t teach his son about spell check.

LJ was brutal on Sunday, just as he has been all season. He has 309 rushing yards on 116 carries and no touchdowns in seven games this year, but continues to get opportunities in the Chiefs’ offense. Despite his struggles, Haley has stuck by Johnson all season and for all his trouble, he gets criticized for not having any NFL experience.

Johnson entered training camp on his best behavior and hasn’t made waves until this point. But now it sounds like he’s trying to get himself traded again, although based on his brutal production maybe the Chiefs won’t trade him – they’ll just cut him.

In one of the wildest games of the season, the Saints beat the Dolphins 46-34 on Sunday as Drew Brees completed 22-of-38 passes for 298 yards and one touchdown. He also rushed for two scores as New Orleans outscored Miami 43-10 starting late in the second quarter.

The final score would suggest otherwise, but both defenses actually played well until the fourth quarter. Miami repeatedly harassed Brees while racking up five sacks and forcing three interceptions and two fumbles. At one point, the Dolphins led 24-3 but Sean Payton never abandoned the run and Brees slowly started to strike for big plays. He repeatedly attacked the middle of the field while finding Jeremy Shockey (four catches, 105 yards) for a couple of big plays in the second half.

For the third time this season, Darren Sharper intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown. He now has five interceptions on the year and is making a case for being the best offseason acquisition in the NFL, which is amazing considering how several teams thought he was done at 33 years old.

The Dolphins learned a lot about themselves today. While they blew a 21-point second quarter lead, they are the only team that has put the Saints on their heels this season. They may have given the rest of the league a blueprint on how to slow the Saints down. (Or at least, slow the Saints down for two quarters.)

It’s unfortunate that they couldn’t find a way to pull out the win, but by no means are the Dolphins out of contention at 2-4. Chad Henne made a couple of mistakes today, but the youngster will learn and continue to develop.

A week ago the Raiders beat the Eagles and I swear fire and brimstone started falling from the sky. Rivers and seas boiled. Forty years of darkness was upon us. Dogs and cats started living together. Mass hysteria. Earthquakes, volcanoes…

All right, enough Ghostbusters, although disagree with the greatness of that movie and I’ll punch you in your shin. Order was restored today in the NFL as the Jets hammered the Raiders 38-0 in Oakland. Rookie running back Shonn Greene exploded for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, as Leon Washington suffered what could be a serious leg injury. If Washington misses significant time, the third-round pick out of Iowa will see more opportunities, which he certainly deserves after his performance today.

Mark Sanchez rebounded from his five-interception performance last week, as he completed nine of 15 pass attempts for 143 yards and a touchdown. Granted, Sanchez didn’t have to do much because the Jets’ built a 24-0 halftime lead thanks to their running game and multiple turnovers by the Raiders. But at least New York was able to shift the focus off its rookie QB for one week.

Speaking of those hapless, heartless Raiders, JaMarcus Russell looked putrid once again. He was pulled in the second quarter in favor of Bruce Gradkowski after he set the Jets up with their first score by fumbling close to his end zone on Oakland’s first possession. Russell also threw two interceptions and as expected, Gradkowski didn’t fair much better as he threw for only 97 yards and also lost a fumble.

So much for Oakland building off last week’s win over Philadelphia.