DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- A week after the Bucs were absolutely embarrassed by the 49ers in San Francisco, they turn around on Sunday and dominate the Saints to even things up in the NFC South. Granted, this was the Saints’ third-straight road game and their head coach had to call plays from the bench and from up in the booth after tearing his MCL and fracturing his tibia in a nasty first-quarter collision with his tight end on the sidelines. But still, you can’t take anything away from the Bucs today. They picked off Drew Brees, forced four turnovers and got a 300-yard performance out of Josh Freeman. They were also without promising runner LeGarrette Blount, but Earnest Graham filled in admirably with a 109-yard effort. Suddenly the NFC South is once again tight, as the Saints and Bucs are both 4-2 and the Falcons are only one game behind at 3-3.

- Who would have thought that the midfield handshake would provide more action than the actual game between the 49ers and Lions today? I’m sure plenty of Lion fans were upset with Jim Harbaugh’s excitement following the Niners’ win in Detroit, which is understandable. Considering Harbaugh didn’t have his finest coaching performance of the year, he probably could have toned down his exuberance while heading out to midfield to shake Jim Schwartz’s hand. But let’s make one thing clear: If you’re going to dish it out, you better be willing to take it. And Schwartz has been dishing it out all year in the form of taunting opposing players and nearly knocking himself out with hay-maker fist pumps. In fact, as my good buddy Drew (a huge Lions fan) pointed out following the game, Schwartz gave Harbaugh guff in the first quarter after the San Fran coach challenged a touchdown. Schwartz seemingly shouted “No the rules!” at the 49er sideline. The Niners won and Harbaugh has every right to be excited. Schwartz should have kept his composure.

- For about the 9,000,000 time in my career, I was wrong about the Bears. They screw me at every turn. When I predict that they’ll win, they don’t. When I say they’ll lose, they completely dominate a divisional opponent 39-10 on national television. I don’t understand them and quite frankly, I don’t want to understand them. I have zero clue when it comes to predicting the success or failures of the Chicago Bears, whom I predicted would beat Peyton Manning in the 2006 Super Bowl. (We all know how that turned out and I think it’s fitting that I mention that game on the same day Rex Grossman throws four interceptions.) Tonight I thought Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson would take over the game in Chicago and instead, Jay Cutler and Devin Hester put on a clinic. They were masterful against a Minnesota team that I thought was a tad better than its record indicated. Thus, I humbly eat crow, as I was once again was wrong about Chicago. Congrats, Bears – you mother…

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- People have been waiting months for Mike Shanahan’s decision to start Rex Grossman to blow up in his face and it finally happened on Sunday. If the Redskins had anything resembling a quarterback they probably would have beaten the Eagles, whose offense went into hibernation in the second half. But instead they had Grossman, who was extra awful in a four-interception performance. The John Beck talk can wait until tomorrow. Here’s the question for today: Why didn’t the Redskins try to run the ball more? I know they fell behind 20-0 in the first half but for God’s sake, Philadelphia’s run defense is the worst in the league and Washington attempted 14 rushes. Nice game plan, Shanahan. You really thought this one through.

- I think Jason Garrett played not to lose on Dallas’ second to last possession of the fourth quarter. While nursing a 16-13 lead with 3:36 remaining in the game, Garrett went conservative with three straight runs as New England forced a three-and-out. Then Garrett watched as Tom Brady marched right up the field for the game-winning score. Hindsight is always 20/20 but considering Tony Romo (317 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was having a pretty good day up to that point, I wonder why Garrett didn’t attempt a pass or two to try and pick up a few first downs. Instead, he gave Brady the ball back with an opportunity to win the game. That’s a losing proposition nearly 100-percent of the time and it certainly was again today.

- For as well as Matthew Stafford has played this season, he was pretty bad today. He was sacked five times, including once for a safety. He also looked scatter shot in the pocket and kept throwing the ball sidearm while trying to fit it into the smallest of windows. That said, the Lions were coming off a short week and an emotional win on Monday night against a division rival. They were due for a letdown, even with a good San Francisco team coming to town. All-in-all, the Lions are still 5-1 and sitting pretty in the NFC.

- If the Bills are going to make the playoffs this season then the defense has to keep up their end of the bargain. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a costly interception late in the fourth quarter today against the Giants but the offense is doing all it can to win games for Buffalo. At some point the defense will have to start overachieving or else the Bills are going to struggle to keep pace in an ultra-competitive AFC.

- Considering this was their third straight road game and Sean Payton had to call the plays from the bench after he tore his MCL and fractured his tibia, the Saints deserve a reprieve for their performance in Tampa Bay. That said, a lot of their issues from a year ago were on display again today: Turnovers, poor execution by the defense, and a sloppy performance by Drew Brees. Seeing as how the Bucs were absolutely drummed by the 49ers last weekend in San Francisco, I expected more out of New Orleans today.

- The Texans’ defense held its own in the first-half against the Ravens without Mario Williams, but a 51-yard reception by Torrey Smith and a 56-yard snag by Anquan Boldin killed them in the first half. Even though they’re still in good shape in the AFC South, the Texans’ confidence has to be waning. They need to stabilize the situation quickly before things really get out of hand.

- The Jaguars have to be somewhat pleased that they were able to make a game of it in Pittsburgh today after falling behind 17-0. That said, what a rough day for Rashean Mathis. Not only was he brutalized in coverage but he also got stiff-armed by Rashard Mendenhall on the running back’s 68-yard run. His teammates deserved more effort than that out of the veteran corner.

“CHAMPIONSHIP”…

- Not the greatest performance by Jim Harbaugh and his 49ers today, but they proved that they could beat a good team on the road. Detroit isn’t exactly an easy place to play, even when the Lions are licking the basement of the NFC North. Ford Field gets even tougher when the home team is 5-0 and the crowd is pissed off following an ugly exit for the Tigers in the ALCS. But regardless, the Niners overcame a tough environment and another inconsistent effort by Alex Smith to reach 5-1 on the season. That’s pretty impressive, especially when you stop and think that they’re one bad quarter against Dallas away from being 6-0. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Niners don’t win the NFC West running away.

- One more note on the San Fran-Detroit game: I think the refs made the right call on that pivotal Delanie Walker touchdown catch. When the play ran live, I thought Walker’s knee was clearly down. But the refs did the right thing by calling it a touchdown and then sending it up to the booth for a review. And while watching the review, it looked like his knee went down either a split second before or after the tip of the ball went across the goal line. In other words, it wasn’t indisputable evidence that it wasn’t a touchdown. If you’re a Detroit fan, you’re right to have beef with the call but if the Lions score one more touchdown in the second half they win and that play winds up being insignificant.

- Hey, they’re not all going to be pretty. The Patriots found a way to beat the Cowboys despite a sloppy performance by the offense. All eyes were on the New England defense coming into the game and for the most part, it certainly did its job. While Wes Welker and Jason Witten had quiet days, that final drive was classic Tom Brady, wasn’t it? Ten plays and 80 yards in two minutes and nine seconds. Brady was 7-for-8 on that drive, which included the 8-yard touchdown pass to Aaron Hernandez that left the Cowboys with just enough time not to be able to do anything to respond.

- What a huge blow for the Raiders, who notched another win to get to 4-2 on the year. Jason Campbell’s season-ending injury forces the front office to make its first big decision in the post-Al Davis era. Will Oakland stick with Kyle Boller? Get Terrelle Pryor up to speed quickly? Trade for Kyle Orton before Tuesday’s deadline? Gasp! Sign Brett Favre? Gasp again just for good measure! Things are about to get real interesting in Oakland.

- The Eagles still haven’t played a full four quarters since their season opening victory against the Rams, but a win is a win – especially for a team that had lost its previous four games. Philly is still alive thanks in large part to LeSean McCoy and the awfulness that is Rex Grossman, and can now collect itself during its bye. Time to work whatever magic you have left, Andy Reid.

- What a massive interception by Giants’ corner Corey Webster in the fourth quarter against the Bills. New York was on its way to squandering a fourth quarter lead for the second time in two games before Webster went up high to snatch a Ryan Fitzpatrick pass out of the air. Had the Bills scored and went on to win, a huge cloud of doubt would have formed over Giants Stadium the next two weeks. Instead, thanks in large part to Webster, Eli Manning and a big day from Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants head into their bye with a 4-2 record. Not bad for a team many thought would crumble under the amount of injuries they suffered in preseason.

- I didn’t like Green Bay’s second half performance against St. Louis because when you couple it with the Packs’ first-half against the Falcons last week, you wonder if the slightest of cracks are starting to form in the foundation. For the first time all year, the Packers let their foot off the gas and if it weren’t for a couple of poor decisions by Sam Bradford, the Rams would have made it a game in the second half. That said, Aaron Rodgers’ first-half performance was perfect. Literally. It was literally perfect. He had a perfect passer rating at halftime after throwing three touchdown passes in the second quarter. The bullet he threw to James Jones to make the score 10-0 was incredible. That’s the type of pass that makes you wonder how he fell 23 picks in the draft. Twenty-three picks!

- For anyone who has watched him play this year, there’s no question that Michael Turner’s game is declining. But with Julio Jones sidelined and the offense in a major funk, the Falcons turned the clocks back and put a game on Turner’s shoulders. He responded by rushing for 139 yards and two scores in Atlanta’s 31-17 win over the Panthers. For all of their talk about becoming more explosive, it was Turner and the ground attack that got them back on track. This was far from a perfect win, but the Falcons really needed this for their moral.

- Nice effort by Baltimore’s defense. Even without Andre Johnson in the lineup, the Texans were able to cross midfield on six of their first seven drives but the Ravens only allowed two touchdowns the entire game. Baltimore quietly continues to turn in solid performance after solid performance following its ugly loss to the Titans in Week 2.

- Marvin Lewis looks like he’s having fun again, doesn’t he? Of course he does. He doesn’t have Chad Ochocinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh constantly in his face after every series trying to tell him how to do his job. He also doesn’t have to worry about Carson Palmer going off the deep end trying to manage all of the different personalities in the huddle. He just has Andy Dalton. Quiet, low-key Andy Dalton. If the Bengals somehow make the postseason this year, this will be Lewis’ finest work to date. It must be nice for him to do his job in peace for once.

- One week after they crushed Tennessee, the Steelers built a 17-0 lead at home against Jacksonville as Rashard Mendenhall goes off for 146 yards and they still had to hold on for a 17-13 win. What a hard team to figure out.

Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.

That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 8-12

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

For those wondering, no, Brian Urlacher wasn’t yelling at teammate Lance Briggs on the sidelines during the Chicago Bears’ Week 5 loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday night.

“Everyone asked me what happened after the game: ‘Was I yelling at Lance on the sideline?’ I said: ‘I wasn’t yelling at Lance on the sideline. He didn’t do anything wrong,” Urlacher said. “We were both mad because we aren’t used to this. As long as (Briggs) and I have been here, we haven’t played like this.”

It’s been a frustrating year for the 2-3 Bears, who rank 29th in yards allowed per game (419.6) and 17th in points allowed (24.4). Chicago’s play has been down all season, from a poor pass rush to a suspect run defense that allowed Detroit’s Jahvid Best to rush for 163 yards on just 12 carries. In four games prior to his performance on Monday, Best had yet to total more than 72 yards in a single game, which came back in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.

Julius Peppers’ knee injury that he suffered against the Lions only compounds the Bears’ issues on that side of the ball. Peppers has yet to be ruled out for this Sunday’s game against the Vikings, but a sprained MCL usually takes weeks to heal. Briggs also requested a trade at the beginning of the year, so things aren’t going the way the Bears expected they would, especially considering they hosted the NFC Championship Game a year ago.

49ers @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
Neither of these teams has to prove anything this weekend. Both the Lions and 49ers are legit and if you disagree then you really haven’t been paying attention lately. No team in the league is playing better defensively right now than San Francisco and Detroit’s passing game is only overshadowed by the league’s elite (i.e. New England, New Orleans and Green Bay). This is the most intriguing matchup in Week 6 and I can’t wait to see the result.

Bills @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
What a great test for both of these teams. The Bills are 4-1 but in their two road games this season, they crushed a bad Kansas City team and lost to the Bengals after squandering a double-digit lead at halftime. The Giants, meanwhile, were playing with loads of confidence until they overlooked the Seahawks last week at home. Focus won’t be an issue for either of these teams as they both look to use this game as a measuring stick.

Eagles @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
It’s funny, the Eagles haven’t played a full four quarters since Week 1 and have dropped four straight and yet, you get the feeling that people still expect Andy Reid and Co. to figure it out. Well, it’s now or never. If the Eagles can get to 2-4 with a bye week coming up, maybe they can put a little run together in the second half. But if they lose this week to another divisional foe then Reid and his coaching staff will have to sit on a five-game losing streak for two weeks. With their backs against the wall, if the Eagles can’t win this Sunday their deficit in the NFC East may be too much to overcome.

Panthers @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
People are attempting not to break their necks jumping off the Falcons bandwagon – and for good reason. Their offense is broke and coordinator Mike Mularkey keeps trying the same conservative tactics to try and fix it. He’s either unable or unwilling to change and either way, the Falcons keep losing. Even though Atlanta owns the better record coming into this NFC South showdown, it’s Carolina that’s covered in optimism right now.

Rams @ Packers, 1:00PM ET
The mini scare they received last week in Atlanta may have proven to be great for Green Bay. Before the Falcons built a 14-0 lead on the Packers, Green Bay may have believed it was invincible. But they quickly got things corrected, won the game, and now they can get re-focused with another inferior team in the Rams coming to town this weekend. Two weeks ago the Packers crushed the Broncos and if they want to keep firing on all cylinders, Green Bay needs to rout a bad St. Louis team as well.

Jaguars @ Steelers, 1:00PM ET
I guess all those claims that the Steelers’ run was over after they lost to the Texans were a tad overstated, huh? The Steelers looked like their dominant selves last Sunday against the Titans and now get to feast on a rookie quarterback in Blaine Gabbert this weekend. The Jaguars haven’t had much offense since Gabbert took over the quarterback reins and they could once again struggle at Heinz Field this Sunday. That’s not an easy place to play when your resume is lacking experience.

Colts @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
The Bengals have a golden opportunity to get to 4-2 on the season but they face a huge test this Sunday. No not on the field, as the Colts are less fearsome than a box of puppies. But mentality this is a prime opportunity for Cincinnati to be overconfident. They know they should beat the Colts and that’s often how NFL teams get burned. If anything, Marvin Lewis and his team should remember how overconfident the Bills were coming into Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Buffalo believed it had a win locked up after knocking off the Patriots the week before and the Bills squandered a double-digit lead at halftime. Beware the letdown, Cincinnati.

Cowboys @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
The Cowboys are overmatched but they’ll also get some key players back from injury and had two weeks to prepare for this game. Not that any team wants to get into a shootout with Tom Brady, but the Patriots’ defense can be had. It’ll be interesting to see if Tony Romo can put the Detroit game behind him and will his team to victory against one of the best teams in the league.

Texans @ Ravens, 4:05PM ET
It’s gut-check time for Houston. The Texans lost two of their biggest playmakers in Andre Johnson (hamstring) and Mario Williams (pectoral) the past two weeks, but that just means that other players need to step up. It’s time for Matt Schaub to put a game on his shoulders and prove that he can win another big statement game. The Ravens had two weeks to prepare for this game and were rolling before heading into their bye. If the Texans don’t man up, it could be a long afternoon for them in Baltimore.

Saints @ Bucs, 4:15PM ET
Tampa Bay was finally exposed last week in San Francisco and things don’t get any easier for the Bucs this week with the Saints coming to town. This will be the third-straight road game for the Saints, who continue to roll after dropping their season opener in Green Bay. If they’re not road-weary, they could create some breathing room between them and the Bucs in the NFC South with a win this weekend. If they lose, then Tampa might restore some of the confidence it lost last Sunday.

Browns @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
One week after their emotional victory in Houston, the Raiders return home to face a Browns team that has had a Charmin Extra Soft schedule up to this point. Cleveland’s two wins have come against the winless Colts and Dolphins, while their two losses were by double-digit points to the Bengals and Titans. This is a game the Raiders simply must have. Cleveland’s defense has actually played pretty well thus far, but it also hasn’t faced a real offense yet. (No offense to Tennessee.) The Raiders have the firepower on offense to put this game away early but they can’t overlook a team that has had two weeks to prepare for them.

Vikings @ Bears, 8:20PM ET
If the Bears have any shot of keeping pace with the Packers and Lions in the NFC North, they can’t lose this Sunday at home to Minnesota. The Vikings haven’t played as poorly as their 1-4 record would indicate. Their pass rush has been solid and their run defense has been outstanding. Given the issues the Bears have had along their offensive line, Jared Allen and Co. could take over this game in a heartbeat. Adrian Peterson has also been known to have some big games at Solider Field, so the Bears need to treat the Vikings as if they were the Packers coming to town.

Dolphins @ Jets, 8:30PM ET Monday
The Jets have had major issues the past three weeks but they’re still better than Miami. Lose to the winless Dolphins at home and Rex Ryan will have a serious issue on his hands. This would be a great time for the Jets to iron out some of their problems in the running game, as Miami has been one of the worst run defense teams in the league.

Four spreads of note:

Eagles +1 @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Oddsmakers have finally adjusted the spread to reflect what the Eagles are and not what everyone expected them to be. Last Sunday Philadelphia was a 3-point road favorite against the Bills, who were flat out better and had home field advantage. But this week, the Eagles are 1-point dogs against a Washington team that may not be more talented on paper, but is certainly playing better football at the moment. That said, I’m sure the public still believes that Andy Reid and Co. will eventually figure things out and I wouldn’t be surprised if this line eventually drops to a pick’em. And if it does, it’ll be interesting to see if the public once again gets burned by a Philadelphia team that is a complete mess at the moment.

Panthers +4 @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
People are risking breaking their necks to jump off the Falcons bandwagon. Their offense is a complete mess and their offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey seems unwilling or unable to change his approach. Atlanta opened as a 5.5-point favorite for this NFC South battle, but the spread has already dropped a full point and a half. With Julio Jones’ status in doubt, the public may push the line even closer to the key number of three. Thanks in large part to Cam Newton’s passing abilities, Carolina has covered the spread in four of its first five games including four straight, which is one of the many reasons people are jumping on the Panthers this Sunday.

49ers +4.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
The line opened as high as 7 for this intriguing NFC showdown between two of the bigger surprises in the NFL. But the spread has dropped like a rock with more action coming in on the 4-1 Niners. I would assume that people aren’t betting against the Lions but for San Francisco. The 49ers’ defense has been outstanding this year and the Lions are coming off a short week against a division rival, so the spread was never going to stay at a touchdown. Personally, I think the line is still too high and should be around a field goal.

Vikings +3 @ Bears, 8:20PM ET
The spread is probably set right but it’s still a little surprising that the Bears are only 3-point favorites despite having a losing record themselves. I would imagine the public will be all over Chicago, which plays significantly better at home than on the road and is taking on a Minnesota team that has struggled mightily this year. That said, if the public is all over the Bears and yet the line doesn’t move, I would be suspicious that sharp bettors are forcing bookmakers to keep the spread at 3. This will be one line that will be worth following all week.

All Week 6 point spreads:

Panthers +4 (50.5)
Falcons –4

49ers +4.5 (46.5)
Lions –4.5

Colts +7 (40.5)
Bengals –7

Eagles +1 (47.5)
Redskins –1

Rams +14.5 (47.5)
Packers –14.5

Jaguars +12.5 (40.5)
Steelers –12.5

Bills +3 (50)
Giants –3

Browns +5.5 (44.5)
Raiders –5.5

Texans +9 (45)
Ravens –9

Saints –4.5 (49.5)
Bucs +4.5

Cowboys +7 (55)
Patriots –7

Vikings +3 (41.5)
Bears –3

Dolphins +7 (43.5)
Jets –7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

Preseason predictions in any sport mean absolutely nothing. It’s a fun way for the media and fans to get hyped for the regular season but it’s not like players and coaches are concerned about who prognosticators predict to win the Super Bowl.

That said, it is interesting to look back at how the “experts” whiffed when it came to predicting the success of the Lions and Bills. Granted, there’s still plenty of time for both teams to fall flat on their faces (after all, the Lions were 6-2 in 2007 before losing seven of their last eight to finish 8-8) and to be fair, there were several pundits who believed Detroit would make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But you would be hard pressed to find anyone who would have laid money on Detroit and Buffalo being a combined 9-1 at this point in the season.

Thus, what did pundits miss that prevented them from believing the Lions and Bills would be this good (at least record wise)? Below are a couple of thoughts.

THE PASS PROTECTION
Both teams were expected to be hampered by their offensive lines and yet outside of the Titans, no team has been better in pass protection than Buffalo. Third-year players Andy Levitre and Eric Wood have really come into their own while Fred Jackson has stepped up his efforts in pass protection as well. The Bills blew it in 2009 with the selection of mega-bust Aaron Maybin, but give Buffalo credit for also pulling the trigger on Wood and Levitre in that same draft. They were dedicated to rebuilding their O-line and now they’re starting to reap the rewards. As for the Lions, their pass protection hasn’t been great but it’s certainly been much better than people expected coming into the season. While Jeff Backus continues to be exploited at tackle, veteran Dominic Raiola has made up for his poor run blocking with solid pass protection and the same can be said for Stephen Peterman. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew has also come a long way as a pass blocker since his rookie year in ’09.

TULLOCH AND THE LIONS’ PASS COVERAGE
Diehard Lions fans have been clamoring for their team to upgrade the linebacker position and for years Detroit has struck out in either free agency or the draft. But GM Martin Mayhew found a couple of gems this offseason in former Titan Stephen Tulloch and ex-Jaguar Justin Durant. In fact, there may not have been a more underrated free agent signing this offseason than Tulloch, who has been outstanding in coverage and even better against the run. Granted, he benefits greatly from playing behind the likes of Ndamukong Suh, but to suggest that Tulloch’s success has been the sole product of Detroit’s line would be a fallacy. He’s been the Lions’ best defender this season while Durant and Bobby Carpenter have played better than expected as well. And speaking of overachieving, the Lions’ pass coverage has been among the league’s best so far. Mayhew gave up very little to acquire corner Chris Houston from Atlanta two seasons ago and he’s starting to find himself in Gunther Cunningham’s scheme, while Louis Delmas continues to be one of the better young safeties in the league. The Lions’ ability to generate a pass rush with their front four has a lot to do with the back seven’s success but even so, nobody expected Detroit’s back seven to be one of the team’s strengths.

THE PASSING GAMES
Many pundits wrote this preseason that if Matthew Stafford stayed healthy, the Lions’ passing attack would be well above average. After all, he does have Calvin Johnson to throw to and outside of maybe Wes Welker, nobody has been more productive this season from the wide receiver position than Megatron. Experts also recognized that Ryan Fitzpatrick was better than most realized and that the Bills had plenty of weapons as well. But did anyone expect Detroit and Buffalo to own two of the top 8 passing attacks in the league? From a passer-rating standpoint, they’ve been better than the Chargers, better than Steelers, and certainly better than the Eagles. It all starts with the play of Stafford and Fitzpatrick, who have outperformed the likes of Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, and Ben Roethlisberger. The NFL is a passing league and both of these teams have proven that they can beat opponents through the air.

Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
THE PICK: BILLS +3

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 5-11

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