Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.

That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 8-12

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

The NFL pick gods couldn’t stand that I had a winning record, so they dealt me a nice crap sandwich last week.

The Vikings (thanks for that pick-six at the end of the game, Lord Favre), Bills and Broncos were all losers while my only winner was the Redskins over Packers (which came down to overtime, so clearly I was knocking on the door of a 0-4 week). Ugh.

Let’s get back on the winning track.

Falcons @ Eagles, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons have some sort of complex with the Eagles that they can’t seem to shake. I fully believe they’re the better team, but Andy Reid has had their number of late, as his teams have won seven of the last eight matchups. The fact that this game is being played in Philly doesn’t bode well for Atlanta’s chances either, as the Falcons haven’t won in the “City of Brotherly Love” since dragons roamed the earth. (What? Dragons aren’t real? Not buying it.) The Falcons have been grinding out wins the past three weeks, but I think the Eagles’ aggressive defense will give “Matty Ice” issues this Sunday.
THE PICK: EAGLES -2.5

Seahawks @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
I wouldn’t take the Seahawks against my old high school if they were playing on the road, as Seattle absolutely loses its mind when it doesn’t have the “12th Man” behind them. The Bears get a lift with Jay Cutler back from a one-week hiatus due to a concussion and as long as he protects the ball, his defense should give him plenty of opportunities to score. Julius Peppers has meant the world to Brian Urlacher and the rest of Chicago’s defense and I don’t see the Hawks getting into the end zone too many times come Sunday.
THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

Cowboys @ Vikings, 4:15PM ET
Ah, the battle of underachievement. Did anyone else notice on Monday night that as soon as Lord Favre started slinging touchdown passes that he immediately grabbed his elbow after one of the throws? I know he’s been bothered both elbow tendinitis, but the pessimist in me thought it was a little convenient that as soon as he was about to step into the role of hero again, he made a public display about his injury. Give me a break. Anyway – the Cowboys have some serious issues and for once, they go far beyond their self-destructive tendencies. If Wade Phillips can’t figure out what’s wrong with the defense then this team is going to fold like a deck of cards. I think Minnesota’s offense started to figure things out in the second half last week, which leads me to believe the Vikes will figure out a way to win this Sunday – Favre’s elbow be damned.
THE PICK: VIKINGS -1

Raiders @ 49ers, 4:05PM ET
The 49ers shouldn’t be laying 6.5 points to anyone right now – even the Raiders. I’m going to go against my better judgment and take Oakland, even though I think this is a trap. Of course, I thought the Bills’ opponents were traps the past two weeks and Buffalo went ahead and took a dump in the middle of my living room floor and then said here, you clean it up. The Niners are a bad football team and while the same can be said for the Raiders, at least they’ve shown sign of life this season. Give me the points.
THE PICK: RAIDERS +6.5

Season Record: 7-8-1

Upset Watch: Cowboys (4-1) at Cardinals (3-2), 4:15 PM ET FOX
I’m going right back to the well. In my primer last week, I warned to watch out for the Cards upsetting the previously unbeaten Bills. I’ll do the same this week as the Cowboys roll into the desert after almost blowing a 17-point lead to the Bengals last Sunday. Dallas has more talent than any other team in the NFC, but they’ve proven to be as fragile as T.O.’s emotions. Arizona flat out plays a different brand of football at home and could have wideout Anquan Boldin back this week, although it’s doubtful. Even without Boldin, the Cards have more than enough weapons to score on a Dallas defense that is giving up close to 23 points a game. The key obviously will be whether or not Arizona can stop the Cowboys’ high-powered offense. Dallas is racking up over 400 yards and 30 points a game and the Cards are just two games removed from surrendering 56 points to the Jets. Even if ‘Zona can’t pull off the upset, I would expect one wild shootout.

Intriguing Matchup: Patriots (3-1) at Chargers (2-3) 8:15 PM ET NBC
Remember when New England mocked Shawne Merriman’s “Lights Out” dance after a playoff win in San Diego a couple of years ago and hurt LaDainian Tomlinson’s feelings? The Pats return to the scene of the crime and no team plays with a bigger chip on their shoulder (and for really no reason) than the Chargers. Even though they won in convincing fashion against the 49ers last week, this is clearly a different Patriots team without Tom Brady. (What a statement, I know). It’ll be interesting to see if Matt Cassel can have a coming out party this weekend, because no team in the entire NFL is playing worse against the pass right now than San Diego.

Other Notable Games:
Bears (3-2) at Falcons (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
The last time rookie QB Matt Ryan faced the Tampa 2 defense he had his worst outing as a pro, throwing two interceptions in a loss to the Bucs in Week 2. He’ll get a chance for redemption this week against Chicago, a team that has typically owned Atlanta in the past.

Jaguars (2-3) at Broncos (4-1), 4:15 PM ET FOX
Big Ben and the Steelers lit up Jacksonville’s defense last week. Will Jay Cutler and the Broncos’ offense do the same on Sunday?

Ravens (2-2) at Colts (2-2), 1:00 PM ET CBS
Peyton Manning vs. Ray Lewis is always fun to watch.