Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.

That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 8-12

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

Four spreads of note:

Eagles +1 @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Oddsmakers have finally adjusted the spread to reflect what the Eagles are and not what everyone expected them to be. Last Sunday Philadelphia was a 3-point road favorite against the Bills, who were flat out better and had home field advantage. But this week, the Eagles are 1-point dogs against a Washington team that may not be more talented on paper, but is certainly playing better football at the moment. That said, I’m sure the public still believes that Andy Reid and Co. will eventually figure things out and I wouldn’t be surprised if this line eventually drops to a pick’em. And if it does, it’ll be interesting to see if the public once again gets burned by a Philadelphia team that is a complete mess at the moment.

Panthers +4 @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
People are risking breaking their necks to jump off the Falcons bandwagon. Their offense is a complete mess and their offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey seems unwilling or unable to change his approach. Atlanta opened as a 5.5-point favorite for this NFC South battle, but the spread has already dropped a full point and a half. With Julio Jones’ status in doubt, the public may push the line even closer to the key number of three. Thanks in large part to Cam Newton’s passing abilities, Carolina has covered the spread in four of its first five games including four straight, which is one of the many reasons people are jumping on the Panthers this Sunday.

49ers +4.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
The line opened as high as 7 for this intriguing NFC showdown between two of the bigger surprises in the NFL. But the spread has dropped like a rock with more action coming in on the 4-1 Niners. I would assume that people aren’t betting against the Lions but for San Francisco. The 49ers’ defense has been outstanding this year and the Lions are coming off a short week against a division rival, so the spread was never going to stay at a touchdown. Personally, I think the line is still too high and should be around a field goal.

Vikings +3 @ Bears, 8:20PM ET
The spread is probably set right but it’s still a little surprising that the Bears are only 3-point favorites despite having a losing record themselves. I would imagine the public will be all over Chicago, which plays significantly better at home than on the road and is taking on a Minnesota team that has struggled mightily this year. That said, if the public is all over the Bears and yet the line doesn’t move, I would be suspicious that sharp bettors are forcing bookmakers to keep the spread at 3. This will be one line that will be worth following all week.

All Week 6 point spreads:

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Ravens (4-1) at. Patriots (3-1), 1:00PM ET CBS
The last time these two teams met in Foxboro, the Ravens advanced to the Divisional playoff round after crushing the Patriots 33-14. In that postseason game, Baltimore only threw for 34 yards because it rushed for 234 thanks in large part to Ray Rice’s huge effort. The Pats, meanwhile, finished with just 196 total yards including 64 on the ground and 132 in through the air. This time around, New England won’t have Randy Moss after trading him to Minnesota for a third round pick last week. It’ll be interesting to see what New England’s offense looks like without their top receiving threat against a defense that is only allowing 12.7 points on the road this year.
Current Point Spread: Patriots –3

Falcons (4-1) at. Eagles (3-2), 1:00PM ET FOX
As of this writing, it doesn’t appear that Michael Vick will be healthy enough to face his former team. That means Kevin Kolb will once again start under center for the Eagles and he’s going to face a stiff challenge. The Falcons are allowing just 14 points a game this year and have already won two of their first three road games, which includes a victory at New Orleans. That said, Philadelphia has given Atlanta a ton of trouble over the last decade, winning seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Current Point Spread: Eagles -3

Dolphins (2-2) at. Packers (3-2), 1:00PM ET CBS
No line has been given for this game yet because the Packers are still waiting to see whether or not Aaron Rodgers (concussion) will be healthy enough to play. The latest reports have been encouraging, although he’ll be closely monitored throughout the rest of the week. Even if he does play, Green Bay will still be without Ryan Grant, Morgan Burnett, Nick Barnett, Jermichael Finley and possibly even outstanding young pass rusher Clay Matthews. On the other side, the Dolphins are well rested coming off their bye and will be looking to rebound after their embarrassing loss to the Patriots on Monday night two weeks ago.

Cowboys (1-3) at Vikings (1-3), 4:15PM ET FOX
Something has to give between these two underachieving teams. The Vikings’ offense finally looked like it was getting in sync in the second half against the Jets on Monday night, but Brett Favre sealed their fate with a late interception. The Cowboys’ defense has been a mess of late and is now giving up an average of 21.8 points per game. Minnesota’s defense has been outstanding at home (12 points per game), but Favre has held them back in all three of their losses this season. It’s a long season, but the loser of this game might be able to waive goodbye to their playoff hopes.
Current Point Spread: Vikings –1

2010 NFL Week 6 Odds:

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Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and the rest of the Falcons’ potent offense may get more attention, but Atlanta can thank its defense for the team starting the season 4-1.

The Falcons beat the Bears 21-14 on Sunday night, as Atlanta’s defense forced three turnovers and stopped Chicago on a 4th-and-6 attempt from the 10-yard line with only 34 seconds remaining. The Falcons also held Matt Forte to only 23 yards on 15 carries.

But while Atlanta’s defense deserves credit for its effort on Sunday night, this game was more about Chicago squandering opportunities. Jay Cutler threw an interception to kill a potential scoring drive in the first quarter and then Forte cost the Bears another opportunity with a fumble at Atlanta’s 1-yard line in the third. The Bears moved the ball at will at times, but often shot themselves in the foot with turnovers or costly penalties.

For two teams that are supposed to contender for a playoff spot in the NFC, this wasn’t a very cleanly played game on either side. The Falcons turned the ball over twice and would have added another had Ryan not pounced on a Turner fumble in the second quarter. Neither team was very impressive and while Atlanta won, I can’t say the Falcons are definitively better than the Bears are after this performance.

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Along with a complete listing odds, here are previews for some of the Week 6 matchups in the NFL.

Ravens (3-2) at Vikings (5-0), 1:00PM ET
This is a matchup that features two teams heading in different directions. The Vikings are soaring with Brett Favre under center, while the Ravens have dropped two in a row after starting the season 3-0. Opponents are loading up the box to stop Adrian Peterson and Favre is beating them through the air. The Ravens need to figure out a way to pressure Favre or else they’ll be victim No. 6 for the Vikings. It’ll also be interesting to see how Minnesota’s defense does after surrendering 400 total yards to the lowly Rams last week in St. Louis.

Giants (5-0) at Saints (4-0), 1:00PM ET
After scoring over 40 points in each of their first two games, the Saints’ offense has been held to “only” 27 and 24 points, respectively, in their last two contests. Drew Brees and company will get a huge test this weekend against a Giants defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL. That said, New Orleans will be well rested coming off a bye and has been playing outstanding defensively so far this year. The Saints will also have their full complement of backs, as Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell are both healthy and will form a trio with Reggie Bush in New Orleans’ backfield. This matchup will determine which of these teams is the best in the NFC, if not the NFL.

Bears (3-1) at Falcons (3-1), 8:20PM ET
The Sunday night matchup pits two teams that produced one of the more thrilling finishes in 2008 when Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a last-second victory after the Bears had taken a late lead. Chicago will be fresh coming off its bye, but Atlanta is 2-0 at home and exploded for 45 points last week in San Francisco. The Bears have had issues in their secondary this year, but Jay Cutler had plenty of success against the Falcons’ defense last year in Atlanta as a member of the Broncos. This primetime matchup could turn out to be a shootout in the Dome.

Broncos (5-0) at Chargers (2-2), Monday, 8:30PM ET
Before the season started, many people figured that these teams would have reverse records when they met in Week 6. But it’s Denver that has run away with the AFC West lead in the early going, while San Diego was left searching for answers heading into their bye last week. This has the makings of a great matchup, because the Bolts can score at will but not many teams are playing better defensively than the Broncos are right now. A win for the Chargers could help turn the tide in the division, while a loss would once again put them in catch up mode in the second half (much like last year).

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