Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)
THE PICK: COWBOYS –2.5

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.
THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.
THE PICK: CARDINALS +1

Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.
THE PICK: BRONCOS +12

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 5-7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Jay Cutler admitted on Wednesday that the pressure he’s facing on a weekly basis is starting to affect him. This of course prompted ESPN’s “First Take” to discuss whether or not there is too much crying coming from quarterbacks. You know what? I’m with Cutler. The offensive line has one job to do in pass protection: Protect the quarterback. If the front five isn’t doing their job then how does anyone believe Cutler can do his?

Bills @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
If I’m a Bills fan I’m on top of the world right now but I’d also be a little leery about this Sunday. You’re coming off an emotion come-from-behind win against the Patriots last week at home and now you have to travel to Cincinnati to play a Bengals team that is more competitive than people think. Don’t get me wrong: this is a game Buffalo should win. But beware the letdown.

Titans @ Browns, 1:00PM ET
Apparently the Titans are considering splitting out Chris Johnson more as a receiver in the weeks ahead. Hey Tennessee, how about you figure out why Johnson is only rushing for 2.1 yards per carry at his normal position before trying him out at another one?

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:0oPM ET
After surrendering 20 points to the Vikings in the first half last week by blitzing heavily, Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said his defense is unlikely to send extra defenders in Week 4. Of course, if Cowboys’ center Phil Costa is as bad snapping the ball on Sunday as he was on Monday night against the Redskins, the Lions won’t need to blitz much.

Vikings @ Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
When asked on Wednesday how his team is going to fix the struggles it’s been having in the second half of games, Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier responded with: “There’s a second half?”

Redskins @ Rams, 1:00PM ET
It’s funny, in preseason this was the only game on the Rams’ brutal first-half schedule that people figured would be a sure win. But Washington is 2-1 and certainly has enough offensive firepower to hand St. Louis its fourth straight loss. (Not that that “firepower” showed up in Dallas on Monday night.)

49ers @ Eagles, 1:00PM ET
Michael Vick is 100% sure that he’s going to play this Sunday against the 49ers. He’s about 10% sure that he’s going to finish it, however.

Saints @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
With so much attention being paid to the feel-good Lions and Bills, hardly anyone is talking about how the Saints have scored 30-plus points in all three of their games this year. I’m telling you: Don’t sleep on New Orleans this year. They have issues on defense but this is a Super Bowl-caliber team again.

Steelers @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
Here’s a perfect opportunity for the Texans to notch that one signature win that can build confidence in them the rest of the season. They nearly knocked off the Saints last weekend in New Orleans before running out of gas in the fourth quarter. With Arian Foster set to return this week, a win over the Steelers could do wonders for a team that still hasn’t proven that it belongs among the top teams in the AFC.

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Keep Your Eye On: Bills –3 at. Bengals
Who would have thought that the Bills would be sitting at 3-0 and installed as a road favorite at this point in the season? This is an interesting game because while the Bengals are sitting at 1-2 on the season following back-to-back losses, they’re a lot better than people think they are. They’re at least competitive and rookie Andy Dalton isn’t a complete disaster (at least not yet anyway). The Bills are coming off an emotional win against a huge divisional rival and now have to travel this week. Believe it or not, this will be a nice test for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co.

Primetime: Ravens –3.5 vs. Jets; Bucs –10 vs. Colts
Rex Ryan’s new team heads to his former home when the Jets take on the Ravens this Sunday night. This game figures to be a physical, hard-fought battle and it very likely features two teams that will be competing for a playoff berth in the AFC. Mark Sanchez broke his nose last week but says he’s fine. That’s more than what Ryan’s defense can say after it was steamrolled by Darren McFadden and the Raiders last Sunday. The Jets will have another tough matchup against Ray Rice this weekend…The schedule makers didn’t do the fans any favors by putting the Colts on national television in back-to-back weeks. Of course, they didn’t count on Peyton Manning not playing either. Curtis Painter actually held his own against the Steelers last Sunday night so maybe the Colts will put another competitive effort together. That said, the Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons and will be playing with a ton of confidence.

Highest Point Spread: Packers –13 vs. Broncos
Although they looked rather pedestrian two weeks ago in Carolina, the Packers came out last Sunday and put together a solid effort from start to finish against their division rivals, the Bears. Now they return home where they’re 13-point favorites against a Broncos team that is searching for an identity under new head coach John Fox. Last week the Chargers failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites against a 0-2 Chiefs team that had been outscored 89-6 in their two previous games. Thus, be careful about laying so much wood in an NFL game, although at least this spread is below one of the magic numbers in football (i.e. 14).

Lowest Point Spread: See below.
There are several 1-point spreads this week, none bigger then Lions-Cowboys at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday. The unbeaten Lions have won in a variety of ways already this year: on the road close, at home blowout, on the road come-from-behind. As they proved on Monday night against the Redskins, the Cowboys are a bit of a mess right now. They have several players banged up and Tony Romo is working with a smattering of receivers that aren’t familiar with Jason Garrett’s offense. This is a great opportunity for the Lions to get to 4-0…Other 1-point spreads include: Browns –1 vs. Titans, Vikings –1 at Chiefs, Rams –1 vs. Redskins, Giants –1 at. Cardinals.

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One of two things is going to happen if the Bears, Eagles and Falcons don’t get their issues along the offensive line figured out. They’re either going to get their quarterbacks killed and miss the playoffs, or they’re going to get their quarterbacks severely beaten and miss the playoffs. Either way, the season won’t end pretty for any of these teams.

It would be a gross understatement to say that the season hasn’t exactly started the way the Bears, Eagles and Falcons had envisioned. All three teams are 1-2 and are reeling at the moment. Most, not all, of their struggles can be pinned on the play of their lines. While the Bears’ front five gets scrutinized the most, the Falcons’ protection has easily been the worst in the league after three games. For those who tuned into that Sunday night game against the Eagles, you witnessed Trent Cole treat Atlanta LT Sam Baker like a revolving door to Matt Ryan.

Philadelphia has been opening up lanes for LeSean McCoy, but every lineman outside of tackle Jason Peters has struggled thus far in pass protection. Everyone knew the line was a question mark coming into the season and it certainly has been. The biggest culprit in pass protection has been rookie Jason Kelce, but it’s not like Todd Herremans and Kyle DeVan have done Michael Vick any favors either.

So what can be done? For Chicago, Mike Martz can start giving the ball more to Matt Forte. I realize that starting RT Gabe Carimi is injured and the front five hasn’t gotten much push in the running game but it’s criminal that Forte only received nine carries last Sunday. Lovie Smith had a sit-down with Martz during the team’s bye week last year and told him he needed to have a more balanced attack. The result was positive, as the Bears’ line played much better in the second half and the team wound up in the NFC Championship Game. This time, Smith may need to have that little chitchat earlier in the season.

For the Falcons, one option they have is to run the no-huddle exclusively, or at least more often. Ryan has had a ton of success running the hurry up since his rookie year and coordinator Mike Mularkey is a disciple of Sam Wyche, who ran the no-huddle with the Bengals in the mid 80s. The only time Atlanta’s offense has moved the ball in the last two weeks is when Ryan has been in the hurry up, which keeps defenses vanilla and slows down the edge rushers that have given the O-line fits. The Falcons ran the no-huddle in the first quarter last year in a win over Baltimore and had plenty of success with it. If Mularkey ran the offense more frequently, maybe the line could start to build some confidence. (It also wouldn’t hurt to bench Baker, who is clearly a bust at this point in his career.)

One of the reasons the Eagles’ line has had issues is because Vick has a tendency to hold the ball too long. But even if Vick made faster decisions it doesn’t change the fact that guys like Kelce have to grow up fast. When it comes to Philadelphia, the O-line might just need more time to gel.

In reality, allowing the line to develop cohesion might be the best thing for all of these teams. A big part of Tom Brady’s success in New England is because his line has played together for years. Unfortunately for the Bears, Eagles and Falcons, they don’t have years to wait. The health of their quarterbacks and their seasons hang in the balance.

Injuries, sloppy play, and failed expectations: Gee, where have I seen this Michael Vick before?

It’s natural that when things are going well for a person that they’re often viewed as untouchable. Conversely, when things start to unravel, frustration sets in and problems become magnified.

Now multiple both of those sentences by about 50 when it comes to Vick.

When everything is right in his world, he’s “revolutionizing the quarterback position” or putting up “video game numbers.” He’s unbelievable. One-of-a-kind. A $100 million quarterback. He’s sick. He’s Mike Vick.

Everyone bought into the same hype surrounding Vick on draft day in 2001 that they did last year when he started to light up the league again. But someone please explain to me what has actually changed besides his uniform color, because I don’t see much.

Remember when the media couldn’t stop putting a microphone in front of his face last year? Oh, how the public ate it up. He was a changed man. A more mature man and a more mature player. It was going to be different in Philadelphia because quite frankly, he and everyone said it was.

But what happened? He led the Eagles to the playoffs only to come up just short in the end. Then again, he did just enough to have a lot of people believing he and the Eagles were destined for big things in 2011. Super Bowl-type things.

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Following their 27-21 loss to the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday, several Ravens players ripped the officiating, particularly two roughing the passer calls on Tom Brady.

“Without totally going off the wall here, it is embarrassing to the game,” linebacker Ray Lewis said. “[Tom] Brady is good enough to make his own plays, let him make the play. When you have two great teams that are going at it, let them go at it. Both of their touchdown drives had personal fouls that kept drives alive. Did that win or lose the game? No, but it got them 14 points.”

Asked his biggest gripe, Reed said: “It just felt like everything was kind of all over again. You hate to come into a game where you have to play against a team and the officials. Like I said, nothing to take away from their team, nothing to take away from the officials. We have to help each other out in a way to where it’s near as perfect as we can be. Like I said, it’s a game of inches. We have too much going on with this game, from where it’s come to in 2009, 2010, to say we can’t be a little bit more precise with things.”

Reed was specifically referring to Willis McGahee’s fourth-and-1 run in the fourth quarter in which he was stopped for no gain, and the Patriots’ fake field goal in the fourth quarter.

“When Willis had his fourth-down try, it probably wouldn’t have been a first [down], but it probably should have been a little closer,” he said. “The [Patriots'] spots, the guy stepped out of bounds. Even though we got the penalty on that fourth down when they faked the field goal, the guy stepped out and he reached the ball. Certain things like that. Like I said, you have to play the game.”

I hate that this needs to be said because it shouldn’t matter, but for the record I’m not a “Patriots hater.”

That said, New England has gotten some calls in the last two weeks that have been questionable at best. The two roughing the passer penalties yesterday were cheap and there was a play last week in the Patriots’ win over the Falcons where Atlanta receiver Michael Jenkins and a New England defender were both jostling in coverage and the refs called pass interference on Jenkins, which wiped out a touchdown. Brady was also able to throw a touchdown pass last week to put the game away thanks to one of his offensive lineman bear-hugging John Abraham to avoid a sack.

It appears that the refs are calling penalties based on Brady’s injury last year, which is ridiculous. Just call the game – don’t throw a flag every time a defender is within a mile of Brady’s knees.

All of these calls could have gone either way…they’ve just been going the Patriots way so far.

It was bound to happen.

Mark Sanchez couldn’t continue to play like he was Joe Montana week after week without suffering a setback. The Saints proved to be Sancehz’s setback on Sunday by constantly harassing the rookie into three huge mistakes in the New Orleans’ 24-14 victory at the Superdome.

Sanchez’s first mistake came early in the second quarter when Darren Sharper intercepted his pass on the goal line, then returned it 99 yards for a touchdown. Two possessions later while backed up to his own end zone, Sanchez held onto the ball too long on a 2 and 7 from the 5-yard line and was sacked by Will Smith. Remi Ayodele recovered the fumble in the end zone to give the Saints a 17-0 lead early in the second.

Down 14 points with about five minutes remaining, Sanchez made his final mistake on a desperation fourth down play in which he was once again intercepted by Sharper. For as much swagger as Sanchez had played with throughout the year, he looked like a beaten rookie on Sunday.

This loss doesn’t fall squarely on the shoulders of Sanchez, though. New York offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer didn’t do the rookie any favors by failing to offer him max protection when the Saints proved early in the game that they could generate a pass rush with only their four down linemen. On multiple occasions, Charles Grant came off the edge untouched and forced Sanchez to scramble in attempt to make something happen.

It’s great that the Jets have confidence in Sanchez to make plays in the passing game, but Schottenheimer’s play-calling was atrocious and he should re-visit how he plans on protecting his quarterback in future weeks.

For the Saints, this win further proved their elite status in the NFL. Drew Brees and the passing game was held in check throughout the game, but Pierre Thomas and the Saints’ rushing attack racked up 153 yards and often kept the chains moving. Hopefully Sean Payton was paying attention to how hard Thomas ran throughout the game, so he doesn’t continue to leave the talented back on the sidelines in short-yardage situations.

The Saints defense has improved dramatically this season. Sharper has played like a man possessed and veterans like Roman Harper and Jabari Greer have stepped up in the secondary. New Orleans’ front four is as good as anyone in the league, too.

The NFC South is the Saints to lose, if not the conference.

The Chicago Bears have problems in their secondary and can’t keep any of their linebackers healthy.

But their offense is starting to take shape with Jay Cutler under center.

Albeit it was against the Lions, but the Bears finally got their running game going as Matt Forte rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries in Chicago’s 48-24 victory. Cutler didn’t have to do much in the passing game, but he was clutch in the red zone, completing a 2-yard touchdown pass to Kellen Davis in the second quarter, then Greg Olsen on a 1-yard TD pass on a fourth and 1 from the goal line after a Detroit penalty negated a field goal. Cutler also rushed for a 5-yard touchdown in the first quarter to tie the game 7-7.

Rookie Johnny Knox once again proved his worth, returning the second half kickoff 102 yards for a touchdown. He also hauled in five passes for 31 yards.

The Bears are far from perfect, but if they can run the ball like they did on Sunday, they’re going to be potent. Their opening week loss to the Packers is nothing but a distant memory and with the bye week coming up, Lovie Smith’s team is sitting pretty at 3-1.

As for the Lions, Matthew Stafford looked great early on, but he left the game with a twisted knee and his availability for next week is uncertain.

Quick, name the best team in the AFC.

The Patriots? Too many flaws, especially on defense.

The Ravens? Maybe now that they have an offense to match their defense, but their loss in New England on Sunday raised more concerns about their receiving corps.

The Jets? As of this writing, the Saints are making Mark Sanchez look an awfully lot like a rookie starting in his first season. But if they come back and earn a win in New Orleans, then Rex Ryan’s team certainly makes a case that they’re the best in the conference.

The answer to the proposed question, my friends, may very well be the Indianapolis Colts. I understand that this might not be a fair time to ask a question like this given that they had a free win against the banged up Seahawks on Sunday, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that Peyton Manning and his offense looks unstoppable, or that Indy’s defense is faster and more aggressive under new coordinator Larry Coyer.

One could certainly make the argument that the Colts haven’t faced anyone this season with wins over the Jaguars, Dolphins, Cardinals and Seahawks. But in each of their wins, Manning has thrown for over 300 yards and has run Tom Moore’s version of the no-huddle offense to near perfection.

There is some concern that the defense will wear down because of the offense’s quick-hit approach, and the running game has almost been non-existent. But as long as the Colts stay close, Manning is going to give them an opportunity to win in the fourth quarter.

The schedule is incredibly favorable for Indianapolis over the next couple weeks. They’re at Tennessee next week, have a bye in Week 6 and then play the Rams in Week 7. Their first true challenge of the year might not come until Week 8 when they host the ever-improving 49ers.

Things are set up for the Colts to streak to the playoffs again this year. And with an improved defense, the sky appears to be the limit for this team.

The Browns’ 23-20 overtime loss to instate rival Cincinnati on Sunday really summed up Eric Mangini’s start in Cleveland.

The Browns did the improbable in the fourth quarter by blocking an extra point following a Chad Ochocinco 2-yard touchdown pass to force overtime. Then they really did the improbable by allowing a gimpy Carson Palmer to scramble 15 yards in the extra period to set up Shayne Graham’s game-winning 31-yard field goal with four seconds remaining.

Did I mention that Palmer’s scramble was on fourth down? Had they stopped the Bengals on that play, Mangini and the Browns were looking at a tie at the very least, which certainly would have been better than suffering their fourth consecutive loss.

The good thing for Cleveland is that they fought hard after trailing Cincinnati 14-7 early in the first half. They also forced two key turnovers and the offense looked more efficient with Anderson under center than they did with Brady Quinn in previous weeks. Jerome Harrison rushed for 121 yards on 29 carries, while rookie receiver Mohamed Massaquoi caught eight passes for 148 yards.

But moral victories don’t really count when you’re 0-4. Mangini deserves time to build the roster he wants, but in the meantime he still needs to produce a victory or two because the Cleveland faithful has suffered enough. A win today would have given Mangini a little support.

Hell, a tie would have done the same thing.