After picking all the games in Week 1, last week was the first time I limited my predictions to only four games. And after a 2-1-1 Sunday – I’m hot! On fire, really…

The Packers and Bengals were winners in Week 2, while the Raiders (thanks to a backdoor cover by the Rams) were losers and the Redskins (thanks to being jerk-faces and blowing a lead against the Texans) were a push.

Here are my top 4 predictions for Week 3 in the NFL:

Steelers at Buccaneers +1.5, Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This game looks a little too good to be true. The Steelers’ defense has been lights out early in the season and despite their 2-0 record, the Bucs still have plenty of issues offensively. So take the Steelers and lay the measly 1.5 points right? Well first of all, don’t tell me what to do. Second of all, something smells funny to me. For the third week in a row the Steelers will try to run the ball 60 times out of the 60 offensive plays they run and lean on the defense to create turnovers so they can eek out another field goal-riddled victory. The problem is that Tampa is playing with a ton of confidence right now and are catching Pittsburgh at the right time. For starters, Charlie Batch will once again start under center, limiting the Steelers’ effectiveness on offense. This is also the second time in as many weeks that Pittsburgh has to play on the road and also has a huge divisional game coming up next week against Baltimore – which oh-by-the-way is a week before Big Ben returns from his suspension. This is a classic look-ahead game for the Steelers, who get caught with their pants down. (Uh, okay that was probably in poor taste given the Roethlisbathroom situation. My apologizes.)
THE PICK: BUCCANEERS +1.5

Cowboys +2.5 at Texans, Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This is another game people are probably licking their chops at: a 2-0 Texans team playing at home against a pitiful 0-2 Cowboys team? And I only have to lay 2.5 points? Sign me up. The problem is that the Texans are another team (kind of like the Steelers, but even more so) that is due for a letdown. They’re coming off two emotional wins (one over their biggest bully and the second in come-from-behind fashion) and now come home to face a Cowboys team that is reeling. And the problem with reeling teams is that you’re probably going to get their best effort because they’re desperate for a win. There’s no doubt the Cowboys should be focused and with Houston missing left tackle Duane Brown (suspension), it could come this weekend. I don’t expect the Texans to score over 30 points again like they did the last two weeks and DeMarcus Ware could have a huge day pressuring Matt Schaub with Brown out. I like Dallas to get the straight up win.
THE PICK: COWBOYS +2.5

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Here are my four predictions for Week 3 in the NFL. Last week I went 3-1 straight up (friggin’ Titans) and 1-3 against the spread so as usual, gamblers should have no qualms about fading. (These are also my season totals since I didn’t make any predictions for Week 1.)

Titans (0-2) at Jets (2-0), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
It would be foolish to pick against a hot team with everything working in their favor right now…right? Well, I’m going to do it anyway. Jeff Fisher’s team is too good to be 0-2 and while I love what Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez have brought to the Jets, the law of averages suggest that a rookie quarterback is going to struggle at some point. Tennessee’s defense has a way of making opposing quarterbacks look bad (save of their performance last week against Matt Schaub, who threw four touchdown passes) and I’m willing to bet Sanchez suffers some growing pains this week. The key for the Titans is whether or not Kerry Collins can avoid turnovers while facing a New York defense that will use multiple fronts and attack him from all angles. Getting Chris Johnson involved in screen and draw plays would be beneficial for Tennessee, especially if the Jets’ defense continues to be aggressive under Ryan. I don’t see the Titans falling to 0-3 and I think Ryan and Sanchez’s come down to earth a bit this week.
Odds: Jets –3.
Prediction: Titans 16, Jets 13.

Falcons (2-0) at Patriots (1-1), 1:00PM ET
This is the most intriguing game on the Week 3 schedule because it will serve as a great indication of where both of these teams are right now. The Falcons are 2-0 after beating two playoff teams from a year ago (the Dolphins and Panthers, respectively) and Matt Ryan is off to a tremendous start (108.5 QB rating). But Atlanta’s defense will be tested this weekend against a New England offense that was held to only nine points a week ago and will no doubt be focused on rebounding. Tom Brady hasn’t looked comfortable on his surgically repaired knee and seemed confused by the amount of looks that the Jets’ defense gave him last week. If the Falcons can get creative with their front seven, they might be able to generate pressure on Brady and come up with a couple of turnovers. If that happens, Ryan has more than enough weapons (Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, etc.) in the passing game to pick apart a Patriots’ defense that is riddled with holes right now. It’s usually unwise to go against Bill Belichick and the Patriots when they’re pissed off and needing a win, but this isn’t the same New England defense that we’ve seen throughout the years and I think Ryan will lead Atlanta to a huge victory at Foxboro.
Odds: Patriots –4.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Patriots 27.

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