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Fade Material: NFL Week 2 Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick sets up a pass before throwing to teammate DeSean Jackson for a touchdown against the Washington Redskins in first half of their NFL football game in Landover, Maryland November 15, 2010. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Not a great start last week but not bad either. I hit the Eagles and Bengals but the Colts never arrived in Houston and the Titans fell short in Jacksonville. I’ll try harder today…

Cardinals @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton was incredible in his debut but Arizona’s defense was sofffffft. Now the Cardinals have to hop a flight cross-country to play a Redskins team that didn’t have to move after playing at home last week. While the situation is built like a house of cards, Rex Grossman played well last Sunday against the Giants and I think he’ll carry that confidence into today. The Cardinals are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. The Redskins, meanwhile, are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus the NFC.
THE PICK: REDSKINS –4

Browns @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
Apparently I’m a glutton for punishment because I’m right back on the Colts this week after their brutal performance in Week 1. It just doesn’t sit right with me that Indy is a 1-point home underdog against a Browns team that got drubbed by the Bengals at home last Sunday. Kerry Collins looked like crap-o-la in Houston but he should have an easier time this Sunday against Cleveland. The underdog is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the Browns are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus the AFC.
THE PICK: COLTS +1

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With Michael Vick and the Eagles coming to town, it’s statement time for the Falcons

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) passes during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 11, 2011 in Chicago. UPI/Brian Kersey

Week 2 is a little early for statement games but the Falcons may be the exception.

There were a handful of media members who predicted Atlanta to reach the Super Bowl this season, none more prominent than SI’s Peter King. But if the Falcons don’t believe they’re ready to take the next step then why should anyone else? Their brutal performance in Chicago last weekend followed an 0-4 preseason, which followed a 48-21 loss to the Packers in last year’s playoffs. Super Bowl? How about this team bothers winning a game of importance first?

Things don’t get any easier for the Falcons this Sunday night when Michael Vick and the Eagles come to town. ESPN has had a field day with the “Whose house is it?” topic, but the Falcons should be more concerned with starting 0-2 than trying to figure out whether Vick or Matt Ryan’s name should be on the doorknocker. Atlanta has lost four straight to Philadelphia and eight of its last nine to the Eagles, including two playoff games. To suggest Andy Reid has had the Falcons’ number over the years would be an understatement.

But Atlanta can change all that this weekend. The sloppiness that they exhibited in last Sunday’s loss to the Bears was rather uncharacteristic of the Mike Smith-led Falcons over the last three years. Thus, I expect Atlanta to play with more focus and pride this weekend.

But focus and pride are just two ingredients that this team is missing right now. They could also use a dash of attitude, swagger and aggressiveness. Their quarterback is seemingly ready to join the elite but he hesitates to throw downfield. Their offensive coordinator was viewed as a head-coaching candidate late last season but his conservative playcalling is befuddling with the amount of weapons the Falcons posses on offense. Their head coach was once a defensive coordinator in Jacksonville but thus far, he and his current DC can’t figure out the coverage woes that the secondary and linebacker corps is having. (Save for corner Brent Grimes, who has emerged as one of the team’s top playmakers.)

In other words, this team is a small mess right now – not a Super Bowl contender. But it’s not like the Falcons don’t have talent. On the contrary – this team is stacked. They have a slew of playmakers on offense, a ton of potential on defense, and thanks to the recent additions of James Sanders and Kelvin Hayden, plenty of depth as well.

With that in mind, the Falcons can’t allow this game to be about Vick and his heroic homecoming. After all, if they’re going to play second fiddle to him in their own stadium, then they might as well lay down for the rest of the NFC powers as well. This game needs to be about making a statement. This needs to be about beating an opponent that has had their number and stomping out the cloud of doubt that is starting to form around them.

A loss to the Eagles this Sunday isn’t going to eliminate the Falcons from the playoffs. But it wouldn’t kill them to have a sense of urgency right now either.

2011 NFL Week 2 Point Spreads & Preview

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick throws a pass during the first half of their NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams in St. Louis, Missouri September 11, 2011. REUTERS/Sarah Conard (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1), 8:20PM ET
Outside of Chargers-Patriots or maybe Bears-Saints, there isn’t a juicer matchup on the schedule this week. The Falcons should be embarrassed by the way they performed last week in Chicago but they have zero time to wallow in self pity because Michael Vick and the Eagles come storming into the Georgia Dome this weekend. Andy Reid has had major ownage on the Falcons over the years, as Philly is 9-2-1 against the spread in its last 12 games against Atlanta, which includes a 4-1-1 ATS mark on the road. With defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux set to miss over a month with a knee injury, the Falcons’ defense is in major trouble. An 0-2 start for the defending NFC South champions is a big-time reality.
THE ODDS: EAGLES –1.5

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0), 4:15PM ET
Two teams picked by many to win their respective divisions will square off in New England on Sunday when the Pats host the Chargers at 4:15PM ET. These two teams met in San Diego last October and despite dominating the first half, the Bolts fell to the Pats, 23-20. The underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams, while the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. That said, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New England and after watching Tom Brady dissect the Dolphins on Monday night, it’s hard to envision a low-scoring game this Sunday at Foxboro.
THE ODDS: PATRIOTS –7

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Tweeting NFL Week 2

Anthony Stalter (under TheScoresReport) and I (under fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 2. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…



NFL Morning After Reactions: Patriots, Titans, Cowboys & more

Here’s a look at what local NFL beat writers and columnists have to say following their teams’ performance on Sunday.

- Steve Serby of the New York Post writes that Jets’ rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez “outswaggered” the Pats’ Tom Brady.

- Gil LeBreton of the Star-Telegram writes that the Cowboys’ offense spoiled Jerry Jones’ new stadium party.

- Mike Mulligan of the Chicago Sun-Times says that Jay Cutler’s signature game saved the Bears from defeat on Sunday.

- Damon Hack of SI.com says that the Patriots showed a rare loss of composure in their defeat to the Jets.

- David Climer of the Tennessean compiles a list of troubling signs for the 0-2 Titans.

- Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune wonders if the Chargers can be fixed after their loss to the Ravens and their near-loss to the Raiders in Week 1.

- Tom Oates of Madison.com writes that the Packers’ offensive line (which struggled mightily on Sunday against the Bengals) could ruin the season for Green Bay.

- Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post can’t help but think that head coach Jim Zorn has low expectations for the Redskins.

- Never afraid to hand out criticism, Jason Whitlock of the Kansas City Star writes that the Chiefs coaching performance against the Raiders was embarrassing.

NFL Week 2 Snapshot Previews

Here are quick-hit previews for all of Sunday afternoon’s action in Week 2. Be sure to check out my picks and predictions for this week as well.

Patriots at Jets, 1PM ET
Thanks to Rex Ryan and Kerry Rhodes boastfully stating that they won’t be afraid of the Patriots this year (or ever), this has become one of the more intriguing Week 2 matchups. Under Ryan’s guidance, the Jets now play an aggressive, attacking style of defense. If New York’s front seven can generate consistent pressure on Tom Brady, the Jets have a good enough secondary to at least contain Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Without Jerod Mayo (out with an injury) and Richard Seymour (out like yesterday’s news), Bill Belichick’s defense suddenly looks human. Is there an upset brewing in East Rutherford?

Saints at Eagles, 1PM ET
The general consensus is that without Donovan McNabb (out with a rib injury), the Eagles don’t stand a chance Sunday against the offensive juggernaut that is the Saints. But don’t forget that Philly’s defense is a tad more talented than Detroit’s (NO’s opponent last Sunday) and that the Eagles are a tough team to beat at home. While Kevin Kolb certainly doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in the Philly faithful, New Orleans allowed rookie Matthew Stafford and the Lions to put up 27 points on them last week, so maybe Kolb (who will be protected by an excellent line and be aided by the Eagles’ solid running game) won’t have to win the game on his own. Nobody should expect the Saints to roll into Lincoln Financial Field today and put up 45 points again like they did last week.

Rams at Redskins, 1PM ET
It would be nice to see Jim Zorn take the training wheels off his offense and let quarterback Jason Campbell throw the ball downfield more. If Zorn doesn’t trust Campbell to throw the ball vertically against the defensively challenged Rams, then he’ll trust him in any situation. As soon as Zorn establishes the run with Clinton Portis, he should allow Campbell to challenge St. Louis’s suspect secondary and take shots down field. The over/under on sacks for Albert Haynesworth in this game has been set at 24. And the over/under on Marc Bulger flashing that hapless expression after he makes a mistake is 70.

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Rhodes wants to embarrass the Patriots

Jets’ safety Kerry Rhodes is taking a page from his head coach in calling out the Patriots, saying that he wants to “embarrass” New England this Sunday when the two teams clash in New York on Sunday.

From ESPN.com:

“You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them,” Rhodes said, according to the New York Daily News. “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

Brady, returning from a knee injury that cost him almost the entire 2008 season, was hit only six times by the Buffalo Bills in Week 1′s comeback victory. Rhodes said Brady will be hit far more often by the Jets’ defense, which hit Texans quarterback Matt Schaub eight times in Week 1.

“We will hit him more than six times. I promise you that,” Rhodes said, according to the Daily News.

Rhodes insisted the Jets “won’t play dirty” but that Brady will be vulnerable.

“I’m sure if somebody is around his leg, or he feels pressure below, he’s not going to step into his throw,” Rhodes said, according to the Daily News.

As a writer, I love this kind of smack talk. But I don’t think it’s wise for Rhodes (or anyone else for that matter) to give the Patriots any extra motivation on game day. That said, New England is coming off a short week and its defense didn’t play well without Jerod Mayo on Monday against Buffalo. Mayo won’t play this week, so maybe the Pats are primed for the taking.

The Jets backed up Rex Ryan’s offseason talk last week in Houston, so maybe they’ll do the same for Rhodes this Sunday against New England.

NFL won’t suspend Saints’ Smith, Grant

According to Rotoworld.com (via Brian McCarthy’s Twitter page), the NFL won’t suspend Saints’ defensive ends Will Smith or Charles Grant for violating the league’s substance abuse policy last year.

Saints DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant will not be suspended “at this time,” said commissioner Roger Goodell on Tuesday.

Goodell cited “considerations of fairness, uniform applications of our policies, and competitive integrity” as reasons to defer the suspensions. With the Vikings’ Williams Wall allowed to play through the season, it wouldn’t be fair to the Saints to lose two of their top defenders for the same StarCaps transgression.

All four players (along with free agent Deuce McAllister) were all subjected to suspension at the same time last year. As Rotoworld points out, it wouldn’t be fair if the Saints lost Smith and Grant for four games and Minnesota’s Williams Wall got to play.

Chargers need to look in the mirror before blaming ref

NFL Spokesman Greg Aiello says that official Ed Hochuli will be given a lower grade following his blown call during the Denver Broncos-San Diego Chargers game last Sunday. A lower grade can result in Hochuli not being allowed to ref the NFL Playoffs and/or 2009 Super Bowl.

“Officials are held accountable for their calls. They are graded on every play of every game,” NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said Monday. “Ed has been an outstanding official for many years, but he will be marked down for this call. Under our evaluation system, an official’s grades impact his status for potentially working the playoffs and ultimately whether or not he is retained.”

The play occurred with the Broncos at the Chargers’ 1-yard line in the final minute. Denver quarterback Jay Cutler dropped back to pass, and the ball slipped out of his hands, bounced off the grass and into the arms of San Diego linebacker Tim Dobbins.

Hochuli ruled it an incomplete pass. Replay ruled it a fumble, but it was spotted at the 10-yard line, where the ball hit the ground, and given to Denver because the rules did not permit possession to be awarded to San Diego because the whistle had blown.

Denver went on to score, convert a two-point conversion and win 39-38.

Hochuli blew the call, plain and simple. And did he cost the Chargers a win? Absolutely. But so did allowing Jay Cutler and the Broncos to march up the field before the blown call and score like they were playing against air. San Diego could have stopped Denver from scoring on fourth down, but they didn’t. They could have stopped them on the 2-point conversion play, but they didn’t. And hey, how they could have stopped the Broncos from scoring 31 first half points, too. But they didn’t.

The Chargers and their fans have every right to be pissed. Hochuli can’t blow the whistle in that situation. He blew it (the call that is, not his whistle). But the bottom line is that one blown call doesn’t make or break an entire game, either. The blame doesn’t fall solely on Hochuli.

Is it time for these 0-2 teams to hit the panic button?

Brad ChildressThe Seahawks were supposed to be the favorites to win the NFC West again this year. The Browns were supposed to contend for a playoff berth in the AFC. The Vikings were the chic-pick in the NFC. The Jaguars and Chargers were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders.

But all five of these teams have started the 2008 season 0-2. And all five teams have major issues.

So is it time for these teams to the hit the panic button? Let’s take a closer look.

Cleveland Browns

What’s gone right: Not much. The only real bright spot offensively has been TE Kellen Winslow Jr., who has 12 receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. And DT Shaun Rogers, the team’s top offseason acquisition, has made an immediate impact with 10 tackles, one sack and two tackles for loss.

What’s gone wrong: Everything. The defense was brutal in Week 1 against Dallas, but bounced back in Week 2 against Pittsburgh (thanks in large part to bad weather conditions and Ben Roethlisberger’s bum shoulder). The offense that averaged over 25 points a game last year has managed just 16 points total in two games this year. Turnovers, penalties, poor quarterback play (Derek Anderson currently has a QB rating of 57.1), and bad coaching have buried this team so far.

Time to hit the panic button? Yes. The Browns’ poor preseason play has carried over into the regular season and the schedule doesn’t get any easier with the Ravens, Giants, Jaguars, Broncos and Bills coming up over the next eight weeks. Outside of Rogers, the offseason acquisitions Cleveland made on defense have not paid off and the offense has been non-existent. Worse yet, the Browns aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year and Romeo Crennel is starting to look overmatched once again.


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