Four spreads of note:

Giants +3 @ Cowboys, 8:30PM ET, Sunday
This game is the ultimate crapshoot; it could play out in a variety of different ways, none of which would be surprising. But if you’re looking for value, I almost always go with the underdog when it comes to betting on NFC East teams. When NFC East teams are expected to win against an inferior opponent, for whatever reason they seem to underachieve. Examples of this include the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals last week, or their failed cover against the Dolphins and Redskins, respectively, in previous games. The Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home, failed to cover against the Dolphins at home, and lost the Eagles as a 6-point favorite in Week 11. On the flip side, the Giants covered and won against the Eagles (Week 2), Patriots (Week 9) and Packers (Week 13) as underdogs of seven points or more. Granted, New York was also crushed by New Orleans in Week 12 but my point is this: NFC East teams often represent value when they’re the underdog and are good fade material when they’re supposed to win. I don’t have hard data here so take this simple approach with a grain of salt. But again, from a pure value standpoint it sure seems like NFC East teams rise to the challenge when they’re the dog.

Raiders +11 @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
As I’ve written many times on this site: It’s Green Bay and then everyone else. And with how poorly Oakland played last Sunday in Miami, there will be plenty of bettors that look at the spread in this game and lay the 11 points without hesitation. But let’s keep in mind that the Raiders’ backs are against the wall here. They’re now tied with Denver for first place in the AFC West and while they play undefeated Green Bay this Sunday, the Broncos have a very winnable home game against a Jay Cutler and Matt Forte-less Chicago team. Thus, we’re probably going to see Oakland’s best effort. With the amount of injuries that the Raiders accumulated in the past month, it was only a matter of time before they suffered a letdown like they did last weekend against the Dolphins. Thus, I’m thinking they bounce back strong this Sunday and at the very least stay within 10 points of the Pack.

49ers -3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
This is a game you look at and you say, “49ers are only -3.5? Sign me up.” But Arizona proved last Sunday in its win over Dallas that it hasn’t given up on the season despite the fact that the playoffs remain a longshot. The Rams, on the other hand, gave up weeks ago and bettors will probably rush to the window to lay coin on a Niners team that routed St. Louis by 26 points last week. What I’m saying is that this is your classic trap game. Oddsmakers claim that they don’t lay traps for bettors but why is this game only 3.5? San Fran is 10-2 this season while Arizona is 5-7. Even with home field advantage factored in, the line still seems too low. I’m not suggested that the Cards will win outright but something tells me oddsmakers are banking on this being a field goal game either way.

Falcons -3 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
I wrote this in my recap of Week 13 and I’ll mention it again seeing as how it relates to this article: I don’t think there’s that wide of a gap between the Falcons and Panthers right now. On paper, Atlanta has better overall talent. But on paper, Atlanta had better overall talent than Houston and it lost 17-10 despite the fact that Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury in the second half and T.J. Yates started for the Texans at quarterback. The Falcons will once again be without top cornerback Brent Grimes and nickel back Kelvin Hayden, which means Dominique Franks and Chris Owens will receive plenty of looks this Sunday from Cam Newton. Given the inexperience of Franks and Owens, they become a weakness that Newton may exploit. There’s always value in a home dog and given the injuries the Falcons are currently dealing with on both sides of the ball, I’d give Carolina a long look this Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 14 Odds:

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It’s only Wednesday, but it’s never too early to take a look at Sunday’s games in the NFL. Below are five games on the Week 14 schedule where the side or total jump out to me.

Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3), 4:15PM ET
Looking at this game from a public standpoint, it’s hard not to love the Patriots. The point spread is low (-3), the Pats are coming off a 45-3 beat down of the Jets on Monday night and while the Bears are 9-3, a large portion of the public seems to be waiting for them to collapse. That said, there’s always value in taking the home underdog – especially when that home dog has a winning overall record and is 4-2 at home this year. The Pats are also coming off a short week of preparation and even though Chicago is a playoff contender this year, this game could still be viewed as a possible letdown for New England (due to the fact that they’re coming off an emotional MNF win over a division rival and now have to go on the road to play a non-conference foe). If Jay Cutler and the Bears’ O-line was still a mess, I would be hesitant to add this game to my card. But seeing as how Cutler is playing very well and the offensive line has improved greatly over the past month, the Bears look like a sound play to me.
CURRENT ODDS: PATRIOTS –3
THE LEAN: BEARS +3

Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7), 1:00PM ET
Before the last two weeks, it was a dangerous proposition to take the Vikings. Brett Favre has played like crap all year, Brad Childress was pissing players off on a routine basis and their pass rush had been non-existent. But the Vikes are 2-0 under interim head coach Leslie Frazier, who seems more committed to to getting Adrian Peterson involved than Childress was. Favre is still a mess and there’s some question whether or not he will/should start the remaining four games, but he’s still tough to beat at home. The Giants, on the other hand, have a date coming up with the Eagles next week and are highly turnover-prone. I’m thinking they might be caught looking ahead. I don’t like the number where it’s at now (-2.5), but if I can get a field goal or more with the Vikings I would hesitate playing it.
CURRENT ODDS: GIANTS –2.5
THE LEAN: VIKINGS +2.5

Packers (8-4) @ Lions (2-10), 1:00PM ET
I like the Lions for the same reason I like the Vikings: they’re a home dog playing a team with a huge game coming up next week. The Packers can’t afford to overlook any team, but with a trip to New England coming up next Sunday, it would be human nature to look past the lowly Lions. But Detroit has been competitive for most of the season and Drew Stanton gave them a spark last week in a loss to the Bears. If the spread was sitting at anything lower than a touchdown I’d probably pass, but at +7 there’s a lot of value in the Lions.
CURRENT ODDS: PACKERS –7
THE LEAN: LIONS +7

Falcons (10-2) @ Panthers (1-11), 1:00PM ET
I thought for sure we’d see the Falcons fall last week against the Bucs and we almost did. But I don’t have the same feelings about this week. The Panthers have been putrid all season and they’ve struggled at home against divisional foes all year. The Bucs defeated them 20-7 in Week 2 and the Saints crushed them 34-3 in Week 9. The Falcons’ defense gives up a ton of yardage but usually not a lot of points. Either way, Matt Ryan and Co. should roll this week and with another road game coming up next Sunday at Seattle, they won’t overlook Carolina. (Not to mention they’re fighting to retain the top seed in the NFC and first place in the NFC South).
CURRENT ODDS: FALCONS –7
THE LEAN: FALCONS –7

Rams (6-6) @ Saints (9-3), 4:05PM ET
This one has me going back-and-forth but I like the under. The Saints can obviously score and the Rams’ defense just gave up 33 points to the Broncos two weeks ago on the road. Plus, with the way the Bengals drove up and down the field against the Saints last weekend, it would be easy to throw up your hands and take the over. But New Orleans should play better defensively this weekend and the Rams’ defense has been underrated for most of the year. The Saints have also scored 30-plus points in each of their last four games, which is a trend that is hard to keep up. This may be one that I eventually drop from my card, but as of right now the under holds so value.
CURRENT ODDS: SAINTS –9.5 (47)
THE LEAN: UNDER 47

Below is a complete list of odds for Week 14 in the NFL, including Thursday night’s game between the Colts and Titans.

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Sunday’s Best: Cowboys (8-4) at Steelers (9-3), 4:15 PM ET FOX
The Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives while the Steelers are trying to stay ahead of the surprising Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Dallas could be without running back Marion Barber (toe injury), which would be a massive blow going against the best defenses in the league. If the ‘Boys can’t run the ball, expect Dick Lebeau to dial up plenty of blitzes to force quarterback Tony Romo into mistakes. This essentially is a must-win for the Cowboys, who would be left on the outside looking in if the playoffs started today. A loss coupled with a Falcons win over the Saints and the Cowboys would need some help the rest of the way, with a remaining schedule that looks like this: vs. Giants, vs. Ravens, at Eagles. The Steelers, meanwhile, should be at full strength as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and running back Willie Parker are expected to play. We’ll see what the Cowboys are made of come 4:00 o’clock on Sunday. Steelers are a currently a 3-point favorite.

Upset Watch: Texans (5-7) at Packers (5-7), 1:00 PM ET CBS
Houston welcomes back quarterback Matt Schaub this week but he’s not the reason they could pull off a decent-sized upset in Week 14. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is. Slaton is coming off a 130-yard effort against the Jaguars on Monday night and racked up 156 yards three weeks ago against the Colts. Considering the Packers are allowing a whopping 141.2 yards a game on the ground this year, Slaton could be set up for another huge day. The Texans will need to find a way to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers, however, or else it’s going to be tough to win at Lambeau. The Texans’ pass defense is improving, but Rodgers and company are averaging 228.9 passing yards a game and could find success against a young Houston secondary. If the Texans don’t win outright, I say they cover the 6-point spread.

Intriguing Matchup: Vikings (7-5) at Lions (0-12), 1:00 PM ET FOX
There’s nothing intriguing about the winless Detroit Lions, but what is interesting is whether or not Kevin and Pat Williams will play for the Vikings. Minnesota needs a victory to stay at least one-game ahead of the Bears and Packers in the division, but without their interior defensive line, even the Lions are capable of finding some running room. The league suspended the Williamses on Tuesday morning, but a court ruling could change all that and allow the two mammoth d-tackles to play. If they don’t, could Detroit get its first win and turn the NFC North upside down yet again? Can Gus Frerotte keep this team afloat if the defense loses two key players?

Other notable games:

Eagles (6-5-1) at Giants (11-1), 1:00 PM ET FOX
Philly will try and keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while a win would crown the G-Men as NFC East champions and get them one step closer to claiming home field advantage throughout the postseason.

Redskins (7-5) at Ravens (8-4), 8:15 PM ET FOX
This Sunday night matchup is a great one. Both teams desperately need a win to stay within reach of a playoff berth. A loss for the ‘Skins could essentially knock them out of the postseason race.

Buccaneers (9-3) at Panthers (9-3), 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Finally a great Monday Night Football matchup after weeks of utter crap. The winner takes a one-game lead in the NFC South and holds an edge for the second spot in the NFC playoff picture, while the loser gets tossed into the Wild Card mix.

Falcons (8-4) at Saints (6-6), 1:00 PM ET FOX
Atlanta has been a nice story this year, but it can’t relax now. A win would go a long way in securing a playoff spot for the Falcons, who finish with a possibly depleted Vikings and a hapless Rams team in their final two games.