Four spreads of note:

Jets –6 @ Broncos, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
The spread for this game has danced for three days now. It opened at Jets –5 and then dropped to 4.5. Now it’s all the way up to 6. I’d personally lay the points with New York up to 7 because I think Tim Tebow is going to have a hell of a time scoring on Rex Ryan’s defense. If he struggled three weeks ago against Detroit, then I shudder to think how he’ll fare against a pissed off New York team that New England just pounded at home. Although I don’t trust Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense as far as I can throw them, this is a perfect spot to lay the points with Ryan’s squad.

Eagles +4.5 @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
This line actually opened at Giants –3 but once word spread that Michael Vick played last week’s game with broken ribs and is now questionable for Sunday night, the spread jumped up. For betting purposes, it’s actually better if Vick does play because the line may drop back down to 3. And if that happens, jump all over the Giants, who would be a massive value. The Eagles look like they’re a team mailing it in and if they don’t feel as though they have anything to play for then they’re not going to get up for a divisional rival in November, in blustery New Jersey no less. The road team usually prospers in this matchup but now might be the perfect time to kick the Eagles while they’re down. (As long as the line doesn’t keep going up, that is. (At some point the Giants stop being a value, even against a fading Philadelphia team.)

Titans +6 @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET
This line is way too high. The Titans enter the week with an extra spring in their step following the news of Matt Schaub’s season-ending surgery. They have a perfect opportunity to catch the Texans in the AFC South if they play well and Houston folds with Matt Leinart under center. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which their head coach Mike Smith blew it by going for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 29-yard-line in overtime. (Which set the Saints up with primo field position.) Atlanta is a conservative team by nature and with Chris Johnson heating up the Titans should be able to keep this game close throughout.

Bengals +7 @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET
If you can figure out how the Ravens perceive the Bengals then this line should be easy to figure out. Baltimore has been playing up (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Houston) and down (Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona) to its competition all year. So if the Ravens view the Bengals as a team that is standing in their way of potentially winning the AFC North, then I would lay the 7 points. But if they view Cincinnati as a wounded (top corner Leon Hall is out for the year and star receiver A.J. Green is banged up) poser that didn’t have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh last week, then I’d take the points with the Bengals. Or better yet? Just lay off this game completely. I personally think that 7 points is a lot in a divisional game but if the Ravens are ticked off from their loss last week to Seattle then they could roll.

2011 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads:

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Giants (6-3) @ Eagles (6-3), 8:20PM ET
As if this matchup wasn’t juicy enough on its own, the Giants had to go out and get steamrolled by the Cowboys last Sunday while the Michael Vick’s absolutely crushed the Redskins on Monday night. Now everyone is left wondering if the G-Men are caught in one of their Tom Coughlin-led funks and whether or not the Eagles are the team to beat. We’ll find out a lot about these two teams as well as the state of the NFC East on Sunday night.
CURRENT ODDS: EAGLES –3

Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (7-2), 4:15PM ET
Two weeks ago, everyone couldn’t stop talking about how vulnerable the Patriots were after they lost to the Browns. Then they went into Pittsburgh last Sunday night and burned Heinz Field to the ground while once again reminding us never to doubt a Bill Belichick-led team – especially following a loss. Even though the Colts have held their ground, Peyton Manning’s receiving corps has been decimated by injury and you wonder if that will eventually take a toll. A win would be insurmountable for both teams this weekend.
CURRENT ODDS: PATRIOTS –3.5

Packers (6-3) @ Vikings (3-6), 1:00PM ET
Even with all of their injuries, the Packers have looked great over the past couple of weeks. But they need to be careful here. The Vikings needed a miracle comeback to beat the Cardinals two weeks ago and then played poorly against the Bears last Sunday. The Packers aren’t going to overlook a division rival on the road, but it’s human nature to think that the circus that has come to Minnesota this season isn’t leaving any time soon (i.e. the Vikings are primed for another beating). Plus, every couple of weeks Brett Favre has one of those games were he comes out and wills his team to victory. You know he wants to stick it to Green Bay one last time.
CURRENT ODDS: PACKERS -3

Raiders (5-4) @ Steelers (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Boy this game looks a heck of a lot more interesting now than it did three weeks ago, huh? The Raiders are now tied for first in the AFC West, while the Steelers were just embarrassed at home by the Patriots last Sunday night. Oakland went into Pittsburgh last year and beat the Steelers on their home turf, so clearly the Raiders aren’t going to be intimidated on Sunday. That said, they’re also 1-3 on the road this year and have only beaten one team with a winning record (vs. Kansas City two weeks ago). This Sunday would be a great time to check both off the “To Do” list.
CURRENT ODDS: STEELERS –7

2010 NFL Week 11 Odds

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