Bill Belichick is a genius. In fact, he’s so much of a genius that he cost his team a win on Sunday night by making one of the dumbest decisions by a head coach in quite some time.

The Patriots absolutely dissected the Colts for 58 minutes tonight. Tom Brady threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-42 passing, while Randy Moss (nine catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs) and Wes Welker (nine catches, 94 yards) abused an injury-riddled, inexperienced secondary on their way to taking a 31-14 fourth quarter lead.

Then Peyton Manning worked his magic to cut Indy’s deficit to 34-28 with just over two minutes remaining. But all the Patriots had to do was pick up two first downs (something they had done with ease the entire night) on their ensuing possession and put the Colts away for good. Instead, Indy’s defense rose to the challenge and stopped the Pats on a 3rd and 2 from New England’s 28-yard line to force a punt.

Or what everyone thought would be a punt, that is.

Instead of punting and making Manning drive the length of the field, Belichick decided to call a time out (the second of the drive) and go for it on fourth down. What ensued was a 1-yard catch by Kevin Faulk, a controversial spot of the ball and a turnover on downs for New England. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for a 1-yard touchdown pass to give the Colts a stunning 35-34 victory.

Now, I don’t fault Belichick for being who he is: An aggressive decision-maker and a coach that not only likes to beat his opponent, but rip their soul out of their bodies and do a tap dance number on it. That’s who he is and that’s what he does. He’s won multiple Super Bowls with that strategy and he’s not going to change his philosophy now.

But the problem with that strategy in this case is that it just wasn’t a smart football decision. Belichick has to punt the football and trust his defense in that situation by forcing Manning to drive the length of the field to win. There’s nothing wrong with being aggressive, but that was just a flat out stupid decision by a head coach that knows better.

Granted, if the Patriots picked up that first down and never gave the ball back to Manning, everyone would be lauding Belichick’s fearless style. I get that, and I don’t want to lose sight of that fact because the media can be two-faced in scenarios like these. And in Belichick’s defense, with the way his offense had been moving the ball all night, gaining a first down on 4th and 2 must have seemed like a lock and why give the ball back to Manning after he just carved up your defense the previous two drives?

But the Patriots didn’t pick up that first down and there was really no reason not to punt the football in that situation. It wasn’t like they were at midfield – they were at their own 28-yard line and if their gamble didn’t work, Belichick had to have known he was handing a win over to the Colts. Furthermore, for Belichick to burn two timeouts before making that decision and leaving himself without the option to stop the clock had his offense not picked up the first down was just as stupid.

I’ve never seen a team dominate like the Patriots did for 58 minutes, only to lose on a decision like that. New England will surely rebound and I wouldn’t doubt it if we saw these same two teams play in the AFC Championship Game in the same stadium. But nevertheless, this was an awful decision by Belichick and he cost his team tonight.

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For anyone that has actually devoted some time watching Matt Ryan over the past month, it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t look like a completely different quarterback than he did last year – or even at the start of this season. He bails out of plays, he overthrows receivers and he looks frightened in the pocket.

It appears that the dreaded sophomore slump has officially sacked “Matty Ice.”

During the Falcons’ 28-19 loss to the Panthers on Sunday, Ryan looked uncomfortable for most of the first half. He threw a horrible interception just before halftime that led to a Carolina touchdown, which put Atlanta behind 21-10. Then late in the game with the Falcons needing a field goal to take the lead, he again was picked off after he forced a pass downfield to a double-covered Michael Jenkins.

In both cases, Ryan not only made poor throws, but poor decisions – something that didn’t plague him last season.

Of course, Ryan had nothing to do with Jason Elam missing a chip shot field goal one possession before the critical interception. Had Elam made the field goal, the Falcons would have had the opportunity to stop Carolina and eek out a much-needed division win. Instead, Elam shanked the kick like someone with money on the Panthers and put his team in an awful situation.

Getting back to Ryan, he really has no excuse for playing as poorly as he has, because the running game has been productive (unlike earlier in the season when the passing game had to carry the Falcons). Michael Turner (nine carries, 111 yards) suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half and couldn’t return, but Jason Snelling picked up the slack in his place and Ryan just couldn’t deliver. The running game should allow Ryan to make more plays in the passing game but he just hasn’t made the throws.

The Falcons have a great opportunity to earn a Wild Card in the NFC, but they can’t do it if Ryan continues to play as poorly as he has. He needs to rekindle the magic that helped him win the Rookie of the Year Award, or second half collapse for Atlanta is certainly possible.

As for the Panthers, they’re starting to get back to what they did last year: Run the ball and play good defense. It also helps when Jake Delhomme isn’t trying to give games away by throwing the ball to the other team and generally being useless.

With this win, the Panthers have gotten back into contention for the NFC Wild Card.

Update: Turner’s injury could be serious. If he’s out for any extended length of time, the Falcons’ season could be in danger, especially considering Jerious Norwood hasn’t played in weeks due to injuries.

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