2012 NFL Conference Championship Odds & Spreads
Ravens @ Patriots, 3:00PM ET, Sunday
The Patriots opened as a 9-point favorite when the odds were first released but the spread has dropped at all major offshore and Las Vegas sports books. Now New England is listed as a 7.5-point home favorite, while the over/under total is sitting between 49.5 and 50.5 after opening at 50.5.
The home team is 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Ravens are just 1-3-2 against the number in their last six trips to New England. That said, the last time these two teams met in Foxboro, the Ravens raced out to a 24-0 first-quarter lead on their way to a 33-14 blowout in the 2009 Wildcard round.
Giants @ 49ers, 6:30PM ET, Sunday
This game opened as a pick’em at most sports books but there was an early flood of money posted on the 49ers, who are now 2.5-point favorites over the Giants. The over/under total is sitting between 41.5 and 42.5 after opening at 44.5, so clearly the consensus is that this will be a defensive battle throughout.
These two teams met in Week 10 of the regular season when the 49ers beat the Giants 27-20 as a 4-point home favorite. The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the home squad is 5-2 against the number in the last seven overall meetings. But the Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the 49ers and 7-0 against the number in their last seven playoff road games.
2012 NFL Conference Championship Odds:
AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 (50)
New England Patriots –7.5
NFC Championship Game
New York Giants +2.5 (42)
San Francisco 49ers –2.5
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2012 NFL Wildcard Round Playoff Odds
Bengals +3 @ Texans, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
Before I looked at the point spreads for this week, I wrote down what I thought the line would be for each game. While I nailed both of the NFC games, I was off considerably for each AFC contest. For this matchup in particular, I had the Bengals as 1-point underdogs given the quarterback situation for the Texans. I thought Jake Delhomme would start because all indications out of Houston on Sunday were that T.J. Yates wouldn’t play. But now that Yates is expected to start, the line makes sense. While Houston enters postseason play as the most injury-riddled team in the tournament, the Texans still have an excellent shot of advancing because of their running game and Wade Phillips. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are a matchup problem for most teams, even those that can stop the run. And Phillips will surely throw in a few wrinkles to confuse quarterback Andy Dalton, who is playing in his first career playoff game. Laying any amount of points on the Texans seems risky but the Bengals aren’t exactly steamrolling into the postseason.
Lions +10.5 @ Saints, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
Attaching the hook to this game was a smart move by oddsmakers, who had to do something to give Saints-backers a moment of pause. There are probably plenty of bettors in Vegas who are laying the wood with New Orleans considering how dominant it’s been at home. But the Lions have already made a trip to the Superdome this year and thus, there will be no surprises. At 10, bettors may be apt to lay the points in hopes that, at the very least, they’ll get a push. But at 10.5 the Lions become a more attractive play. Detroit will also have Ndamukong Suh (who was suspended the first time these two teams met) for this contest, as well as a healthy Louis Delmas and Chris Houston (who were banged up in the first meeting). I’m not suggesting the Saints can’t or won’t cover: they certainly can. They’ve been an unstoppable force at home this season and Drew Brees looks ridiculously comfortable running Sean Payton’s offense on the Superdome turf. But 10.5 points is a lot for a playoff game, especially when you consider how good Detroit’s passing game is thanks to Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. NFL fans may get the shootout that they’re hoping for.
Falcons +3 @ Giants, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
If the roles were reversed and this game was being played in Atlanta, I’d fully expect the Falcons to be favored by 3. That’s because these two teams draw plenty of similarities to each other and thus, home field advantage is what sets the line. (On a neutral field I would almost expect the game to be set as a pick’em.) There will be plenty of New York backers for this one, especially when you factor in the Giants’ fierce pass rush, Matt Ryan’s 0-2 record in the postseason, and the Falcons’ lackluster play on the road this year. But while Atlanta is 4-4 on the road, New York is 4-4 at home so again, this is a pretty even matchup on paper. That said, if you’re a trends bettor then you have to love Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games versus the Giants and the road team is 8-0 against the number in the last eight meetings. The under is also 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings so if you’re looking for an edge when it comes to the total, under 47 might be a solid play.
Steelers –9 @ Broncos, 4:30PM ET, Sunday
I was way off when predicting the line for this game. You knew Denver was going to be an underdog given its brutal performance the past two weeks and the fact that Pittsburgh was coming to town, but I figured the spread would be around 5.5 or 6. Nine seems way too high, even when you consider how brutal Tim Tebow could look against Dick LeBeau’s defense. But the Steelers’ offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders right now. In their last four games, Ben Roethlisberger and Co. have scored 14, 3, 27 and 13 points, respectively. And that 27-point barrage came against a hapless St. Louis team that couldn’t move the ball in Week 16. Considering Big Ben has a bad ankle and Rashard Mendenhall is done for the season because of a knee injury, this game may be closer than people think. Remember, the Broncos are playing excellent defense right now so this may turn out to be a field goal-fest. (And if that’s the case, then maybe the under is the best play on the board, even though its sitting at 34.5.)
2012 NFL Wildcard Weekend Odds
Bengals +3 (38)
Lions +10.5 (58.5)
Falcons +3 (47)
Steelers –9 (34.5)
Check out more odds at TopBet online sportsbook for the NFL playoffs and other sports.
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Tags: 2012 nfl playoff odds, 2012 nfl playoffs, Ben Roethlisberger, bengals vs texans, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Jake Delhomme, Ndamukong Suh, New Orleans Saints, NFL odds, NFL Playoff Odds, nfl playoff point spreads, nfl point spreads, NFL Wildcard Weekend, Rashard Mendenhall, T.J. Yates, Tim Tebow, Wade Phillips
2011 NFL Week 17 Odds & Point Spreads
Four Spreads of Note:
Ravens –2 vs. Bengals, 4:15PM ET
While Cowboys and Giants fans will say otherwise, this might be the marquee matchup of the week. The Ravens need a win to secure a first-round bye and at least one home playoff game, while the Bengals need a victory to clinch a postseason berth, period. The first time these two teams met, Baltimore beat the Bengals 31-24 as a 7-point home favorite. Thus, it’s interesting that oddsmakers would only set the spread for this game at 2 when they have to figure that people will hop on the Ravens again (especially when they don’t even have to lay a field goal). That said, Baltimore has been a completely different team on the road than at home this season, so maybe oddsmakers are setting a trap expecting a Cincinnati upset. We’ll find out soon enough.
Cowboys +3 @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
This is an absolute coin flip. The Giants already beat the Cowboys in Dallas a few weeks ago so clearly they won’t be intimidated by their NFC East rivals come Sunday night. That said, the Giants might be the worst home team in the league, so you can’t assume anything when it comes to either of these two teams. But I developed a theory a couple of months ago when it came to NFC East teams. Without looking at the actual facts, I felt as though NFC East teams were pure gold as an underdog and pure garbage as a favorite. After compiling the numbers for this article, it would appear as though my theory holds some water. As a favorite, NFC East teams are 10-22-2 against the spread this season. As an underdog, they’re 16-10, which includes Washington’s 6-6 record as a dog. Now, does this mean I expect Tony Romo and the Cowboys to roll into East Rutherford on Sunday night and beat the Giants? No. But if you’re hell bent on putting some action on this game, maybe those numbers will help paint a clearer picture.
Chiefs @ Broncos –3; Chargers @ Raiders –3
I’ll lump these games together since my thoughts basically apply to both of them. I’m shocked oddsmakers didn’t make the Broncos and Raiders 3.5-point home favorites instead of 3-point faves, and therefore made bettors choose whether or not to take or lay the hook. Then again, maybe sports books feel as though they’ll get more two-way action if they keep the spread at a field goal. Either way, it might be wise to lay off these games entirely. The NFL didn’t do bettors any favors by setting the time for both games at 4:15PM ET. If Denver wins, Oakland is eliminated in the AFC West so it would have made that Raiders-Chargers game easier to bet (at least in theory). But since both games will played at the same time, bettors will be forced to decide whether or not to bet teams in Kansas City and San Diego, which have nothing to play for besides pride. Again, I’d lay off.
Lions –3.5 @ Packers, 1:00PM ET
This game might be the most interesting on the board when you consider the factors at play. The Packers have nothing to play for after securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs last Sunday, but the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay since Brett Favre was wearing Falcon red. Detroit needs a win because if it doesn’t and Atlanta beats Tampa Bay, then the Lions would have to play the No. 3 seed in the NFC next week, which would likely be the Saints. A trip to Dallas or New York seems like a more pleasurable experience right now than a flight to New Orleans so again, the Lions need to beat the Packers on Sunday. But even though this game means much more to Detroit than Green Bay, there’s something unsettling about laying 3.5 points with the Lions at Lambeau.
2011 NFL Week 17 Odds:
Redskins +8.5 (46)
Buccaneers +12 (47)
49ers –10.5 (35.5)
Bears PK (40.5)
Lions –3.5 (46)
Cowboys +3 (46.5)
Panthers +8.5 (54.5)
Titans –3 (39.5)
Ravens –2 (37.5)
Colts +3.5 (37)
Jets +2 (41)
Bills +11 (51)
Chargers +3 (49)
Chiefs +3 (37)
Seahawks +3 (40.5)
Check out the most current NFL Betting Lines.
2011 NFL Week 16 Point Spreads & Odds
Four spreads of note:
Falcons +6.5 @ Saints, 8:30PM ET, Monday
The spread opened at 7.5 but has dropped a full point to 6.5 at most sports books, although some places still list the line at a touchdown. For as unbeatable as the Saints have been at home this year (both literally and figuratively), 7.5 points was too high. Quite frankly, I think 6.5 points is too high considering this is a divisional game and the fact that the Falcons are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 trips to New Orleans but 6.5 makes more sense than 7.5. Again, Drew Brees and New Orleans has been a juggernaut at home this season but there has been a different feel to this Atlanta team the past two weeks. Ever since they trailed Carolina 23-7 at halftime a couple of weeks ago, the Falcons have played perfect football. That’s not to say Atlanta will pull off the upset on Monday night, but their no-huddle attack has looked very efficient these past six quarters and even though the competition (Carolina and Jacksonville) hasn’t been good, the Falcons appear to have finally found some consistency on offense. It’s not a stretch to think this game will be tight throughout.
Giants +3 @ Jets, 1:00PM ET, Saturday
What on God’s green earth do you do with this game? This isn’t really a true home game for the Jets since the Giants play in the same stadium, but it’s not like the G-Men have played well at home this year anyway. They lost to Seattle at home, barely beat Buffalo and Miami at home, and lost to Philadelphia, Green Bay and Washington at home as well. Their signature victories this year came on the road against New England and Dallas, respectively, so I’m not sure there’s an advantage for the Giants to play a home “road” game versus the Jets this weekend. Given how bad both of these teams looked last week, I wouldn’t touch this game with your money. The over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last four games as an underdog and 4-0 in the Jets’ last four home games overall, so maybe I would toy with the total. But in my eyes there’s little to no value in the side.
Rams +15.5 @ Steelers, 1:00PM ET
Make no mistake the Rams are a horrendous football team. If they were to play the Colts on a neutral field tomorrow, I’d have no qualms about taking Indianapolis. That said, the Steelers’ offense has been in a funk of late and there’s a good chance that Ben Roethlisberger will be held out for Saturday’s game. He clearly didn’t look right on Monday night in San Francisco and seeing as how the Steelers could beat the Rams with Charlie Batch under center, there’s no sense in playing Big Ben. That said, even if the Steelers could win with Batch it doesn’t mean that St. Louis can’t stay within two touchdowns of Pittsburgh (even on the road). Kellen Clemens had some success last week versus the Bengals because Josh McDaniels scaled back the playbook and kept things simple. McDaniels is likely to do that again this week, especially against a nasty Pittsburgh defense. Thus, if both teams are playing things close to the vest, 15.5 points is a little high for what could be a 10 or 13-point game.
Eagles +1 @ Cowboys, 4:15PM ET Saturday
With this being a divisional game that has impact on the NFC East race, there’s already plenty of interest in this matchup. But throw in the fact that Dallas opened as a 3-point favorite and is now down to –1 makes this game even more intriguing from an odds standpoint. It’s rare when oddsmakers open a line at 3 and move off that number, unless it’s to go up to 3.5. It’s not often that a spread opens at 3 and drops all the way down to 1 unless there’s a significant injury, which isn’t the case here. Methinks there may have been some heavy action on Philadelphia when the line opened, forcing bookmakers to adjust right away. Either way, I’m extremely interested in seeing how much this line dances over these next couple of days.
2011 NFL Week 16 Odds:
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Tags: Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Eagles vs. Cowboys, Falcons vs Saints, giants vs jets, NFL odds, nfl point spreads, NFL Week 16, nfl week 16 odds, nfl week 16 point spreads, rams vs steelers
NFL Week 15 Point Spreads & Odds
Four spreads of note:
Seahawks +3.5 @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
The Seahawks, winners of two in a row and four of their last five, are a 3.5-point underdog versus a Bears team that has lost three straight and has scored just 13 points in their last two games? Something smells like baby diapers here. Oddsmakers are probably basing this line on the fact that the Seahawks haven’t been a strong road team this year (or in year’s past, for that matter) but the Bears have been a mess with Caleb Hanie under center the past three weeks. One would think that the 3.5 points are a gift but then again, if it looks too good to be true then it probably is.
Panthers +6.5 @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
Carolina choked away a potential victory last Sunday versus the Falcons and Houston is on a seven-game winning streak but 6.5 points seems like a lot. Granted, the Texans beat the Falcons by seven at home two weeks ago but Atlanta had two defensive touchdowns wiped away due to penalties in that game. The Panthers have the capability of scoring points in bunches thanks to Cam Newton, who could lead Carolina to an upset victory if he would bother to play four quarters instead of just two or three. I don’t doubt that Houston will win this game but again, 6.5 points seems a little high.
Lions –1 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
This feels like a trap. The Lions moved into the sixth spot in the NFC with their win over the Vikings last Sunday (plus a Chicago loss to Denver), while the Raiders have looked hideous the past two weeks. The line is probably set right given how Oakland is at home and Detroit is the better team at the moment, but the Lions seem like too easy of a pick. Granted, the Lions will have Ndamukong Suh back from suspension, which certainly helps along the defensive line. But their secondary is still banged up and the Raiders are now fighting for their postseason lives. Call it a hunch but I think the Raiders may pull off the small upset.
Jets +3 @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET
The Eagles haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (yet) but there’s no doubt that this game means more to the Jets, who are the current owners of the sixth and final seed in the AFC. Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see New York win this game outright given how much trouble Rex Ryan’s defense could cause for Michael Vick. In his first game back since suffering a rib injury in a loss to the Seahawks a couple of weeks back, Vick was shaky against the Dolphins last Sunday. Granted, he did pick up the win but he faces an uphill climb against the best secondary in the league this weekend. The three points seem like a gimmie.
NFL Week 15 Odds:
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Tags: Caleb Hanie, Cam Newton, jets vs eagles, lions vs raiders, Michael Vick, NFL odds, nfl point spreads, NFL Week 15, nfl week 15 odds, nfl week 15 point spreads, panthers vs texans, Seahawks vs Bears, T.J. Yates