Here are my top 4 plays to fade in Week 2 of the NFL:

Ravens at. Bengals +2.5, 1:00PM ET
Odds makers claim that they don’t lay traps for bettors. Well then, what do you call this game, you undeniable witchdoctors? Am I really not going to take the Ravens minus less than a field goal against a Bengals team that the Patriots shellacked in Week 1? Pssh. Well, I’m not. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer took the blame for the Bengals’ defensive effort last week, which he should have. He couldn’t have telegraphed where he was sending pressure any more than he did against Tom Brady, who picked Cincy’s defense apart. This week, however, he’s going to come better prepared and now it’s up to the Bengals’ players to execute. I say they rise to challenge. The Bengals beat the Ravens twice last season and have something to prove after last week. They win this game outright.
THE PICK: BENGALS +2.5

Bills at Packers –13, 1:00PM ET
I try to not make it a habit of taking teams who lay double-digit points in the NFL, but I can’t help myself here. The Packers are that good and the Bills are that bad. The loss of Ryan Grant (out for the season) certainly hurts, but some people are acting like the Packers just lost Walter Payton. Brandon Jackson is a serviceable starter and besides, the passing game is still the focal point of the offense in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers was shaky last week, but he shouldn’t face as much pressure on Sunday as he did last Sunday in Philadelphia. That means big plays to Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley in the passing game. Green Bay rolls in this one.
THE PICK: PACKERS –13

Texans vs. Redskins +3, 4:15PM ET
Here’s another example of why odds makers are full of crap. The Texans are coming off a huge win in which Arian Foster rushed for over 230 yards and are now only laying 2.5 points to a Redskins team that still has plenty of doubters. Why not take Houston here and lay the measly 2.5 points? Because the NFL is a fickle bitch when it wants to be – that’s why. The Texans are coming off an emotional win over the Colts and now have to travel to D.C. to play a very beatable Redskins team. And while Washington did beat Dallas by holding the ‘Boys to just one touchdown, they’re still lacking believers. For at least one week, I believe.
THE PICK: REDSKINS +3

Rams at. Raiders –3.5, 4:05PM ET
I don’t like this matchup one bit for the Rams. They have a rookie quarterback making his first road start of his career in a hostile environment and a less-than 100% Steven Jackson. Plus, I don’t think the Raiders’ defense is as bad as it showed last week in Tennessee and the Rams don’t have enough pass-rushers to make Jason Campbell uneasy in the pocket. Not having Michael Bush hurts Oakland, but the Raider defense should force a turnover or two to put the offense in good position to score a couple of times. Taking the Raiders when they’re favored makes my stomach hurt, but I feel pretty good about this one.
THE PICK: RAIDERS –3.5

Here are my quick-hit picks for Week 8 in the NFL:

Worth being in trouble with your significant other for:

Vikings (6-1) at Packers (4-2), 4:15PM ET
I think the Packers will have a little something for Brett Favre this time around. I realize he was a legend in Green Bay, but the Packer faithful need to boo this man just as they would Steve Young or Troy Aikman. As long as the Packers somehow figure out a way to get a body in front of Jared Allen, I think they beat a Minnesota team coming off an emotional loss in Pittsburgh last week. Call me crazy, but I don’t think this one will be as close as many expect.
Odds: Packers –3.
Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 17.

Giants (5-2) at Eagles (4-2), 1:00PM ET
The Giants are hoping to get a few defensive starters back this week (most notably Michael Boley and Chris Canty), but their concern right now should be moving the ball against a Philadelphia defense that played inspired last week in Washington. (Of course, it was Washington.) Both of these offenses struggled last week trying to move the chains consistently and I can see turnovers playing a huge role in this key NFC East battle. Considering the Eagles lead the league in turnover margin, I think they get a win at home. It’s hard to fathom the G-Men losing three straight, but outside of their Week 2 win against the Cowboys, they haven’t been good against teams with winning records this season.
Odds: Giants –1.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 17.

Broncos (6-0) at Ravens (3-3), 1:00PM ET
The Broncos haven’t given anyone a reason not to trust them. They’ve played great defensively, have remained balanced offensively and continue to prove doubters wrong. That said, I think this is the week they suffer their first loss. The Ravens are desperate and Denver doesn’t really have the explosive passing attack to take advantage of Baltimore’s issues in the secondary. I’m willing to bet the Ravens’ coaching staff figured a few things out in their off week and Baltimore will come out ready to play on Sunday.
Odds: Ravens –3.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Broncos 17.

Falcons (4-2) at Saints (6-0), 8:30PM ET Monday
The Falcons are in trouble. Their secondary is starting to show the same problems it had in preseason and Drew Brees should take advantage of that and torch Chris Houston and company. The only chance Atlanta has is to force turnovers on defense and get Michael Turner going in order to leave Brees on the sidelines. I don’t see it happening.
Odds: Saints –10.
Prediction: Saints 38, Falcons 24.

Read the rest of this entry »

Instead of limiting myself to only four games like I have the previous weeks, I’ve decided to channel my inner Peter King and make predictions (with smaller write ups) on every contest on the NFL schedule this week.

49ers at Texans, 1:00PM ET
It had to have been a long two weeks for San Francisco’s players after the Falcons drubbed the Niners 45-10 in Week 5. Mike Singletary will have his team more focused and I think we’ll see a great defensive effort from San Fran this Sunday to slow down a potent Houston offensive attack.
Odds: Texans –3.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Texans 17.

Packers at Browns, 1:00PM ET
This will be a closer game than most think. The Packers could be looking ahead to a home date with the Vikings next Sunday, although in the end Cleveland’s offense is putrid and while Green Bay has been inconsistent defensively this year, I think they’ll do enough to get the Pack a victory.
Odds: Packers –9.
Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16.

Chargers at Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Ron Rivera has no clue on how to get San Diego’s defense back on track, but the young, inexperienced Kansas City secondary could have issues slowing down Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ passing game. Still, I think Matt Cassel and company pull off a surprise upset at home against a San Diego team coming off a short week.
Odds: Chargers –5
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 18.

Colts at Rams, 1:00PM ET
The Rams have given a nice effort the past two weeks, but this is a horrible matchup for them – even at home. Peyton Manning and company is well rested and the Indy defense will harass Marc Bulger all game.
Odds: Colts –14
Prediction: Colts 34, Rams 14.

Read the rest of this entry »

Giants (5-0) at Saints (4-0), 1:00PM ET
Hopefully readers will give me credit for attempt to predict the toughest games this week. No? All right then…This is by far the hardest game to predict on the Week 6 schedule, so let’s look at some of the facts. The Saints should be well rested coming off a bye and are playing at home. They have the edge then right? They should, but don’t forget that the Giants essentially had a bye themselves since they played Oakland last week and New York always travels well. Drew Brees hasn’t seen a pass rush as good as the Giants’ all season and I think New York will disrupt his rhythm. And while Darren Sharper and the New Orleans defense is playing out of their minds right now, Eli Manning won’t make the same mistakes rookie Mark Sanchez did two weeks ago when the Saints earned a victory against the Jets. I like Brandon Jacobs to get back on track and for the G-Men to pull off a huge win at the Superdome.
Odds: Saints –3.
Prediction: Giants 27, Saints 24.

Ravens (3-2) at Vikings (5-0), 1:00PM ET
So, are the Ravens just in a slump or were they overrated to begin with? Give yourself a gold star if you answered, “A little of both.” Baltimore lost several defensive starters and their coordinator Rex Ryan in the offseason – they were due to have a setback at some point. While I think the Ravens are a solid football team, I don’t like this matchup for them. They’re reeling after two straight losses and play an unfamiliar foe in a hostile environment. I also don’t like the matchup between the Ravens’ receivers and the Vikings’ corners and wonder how Joe Flacco will do once Ray Rice and the running game is shut down by Minnesota’s Williams Wall. As long as Brett Favre doesn’t get turnover-happy for the first time this year, I like the Vikings to remain undefeated.
Odds: Vikings –3.
Prediction: Vikings 21, Ravens 17.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are my four predictions for Week 3 in the NFL. Last week I went 3-1 straight up (friggin’ Titans) and 1-3 against the spread so as usual, gamblers should have no qualms about fading. (These are also my season totals since I didn’t make any predictions for Week 1.)

Titans (0-2) at Jets (2-0), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
It would be foolish to pick against a hot team with everything working in their favor right now…right? Well, I’m going to do it anyway. Jeff Fisher’s team is too good to be 0-2 and while I love what Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez have brought to the Jets, the law of averages suggest that a rookie quarterback is going to struggle at some point. Tennessee’s defense has a way of making opposing quarterbacks look bad (save of their performance last week against Matt Schaub, who threw four touchdown passes) and I’m willing to bet Sanchez suffers some growing pains this week. The key for the Titans is whether or not Kerry Collins can avoid turnovers while facing a New York defense that will use multiple fronts and attack him from all angles. Getting Chris Johnson involved in screen and draw plays would be beneficial for Tennessee, especially if the Jets’ defense continues to be aggressive under Ryan. I don’t see the Titans falling to 0-3 and I think Ryan and Sanchez’s come down to earth a bit this week.
Odds: Jets –3.
Prediction: Titans 16, Jets 13.

Falcons (2-0) at Patriots (1-1), 1:00PM ET
This is the most intriguing game on the Week 3 schedule because it will serve as a great indication of where both of these teams are right now. The Falcons are 2-0 after beating two playoff teams from a year ago (the Dolphins and Panthers, respectively) and Matt Ryan is off to a tremendous start (108.5 QB rating). But Atlanta’s defense will be tested this weekend against a New England offense that was held to only nine points a week ago and will no doubt be focused on rebounding. Tom Brady hasn’t looked comfortable on his surgically repaired knee and seemed confused by the amount of looks that the Jets’ defense gave him last week. If the Falcons can get creative with their front seven, they might be able to generate pressure on Brady and come up with a couple of turnovers. If that happens, Ryan has more than enough weapons (Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, etc.) in the passing game to pick apart a Patriots’ defense that is riddled with holes right now. It’s usually unwise to go against Bill Belichick and the Patriots when they’re pissed off and needing a win, but this isn’t the same New England defense that we’ve seen throughout the years and I think Ryan will lead Atlanta to a huge victory at Foxboro.
Odds: Patriots –4.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Patriots 27.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are quick-hit previews for all of Sunday afternoon’s action in Week 2. Be sure to check out my picks and predictions for this week as well.

Patriots at Jets, 1PM ET
Thanks to Rex Ryan and Kerry Rhodes boastfully stating that they won’t be afraid of the Patriots this year (or ever), this has become one of the more intriguing Week 2 matchups. Under Ryan’s guidance, the Jets now play an aggressive, attacking style of defense. If New York’s front seven can generate consistent pressure on Tom Brady, the Jets have a good enough secondary to at least contain Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Without Jerod Mayo (out with an injury) and Richard Seymour (out like yesterday’s news), Bill Belichick’s defense suddenly looks human. Is there an upset brewing in East Rutherford?

Saints at Eagles, 1PM ET
The general consensus is that without Donovan McNabb (out with a rib injury), the Eagles don’t stand a chance Sunday against the offensive juggernaut that is the Saints. But don’t forget that Philly’s defense is a tad more talented than Detroit’s (NO’s opponent last Sunday) and that the Eagles are a tough team to beat at home. While Kevin Kolb certainly doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in the Philly faithful, New Orleans allowed rookie Matthew Stafford and the Lions to put up 27 points on them last week, so maybe Kolb (who will be protected by an excellent line and be aided by the Eagles’ solid running game) won’t have to win the game on his own. Nobody should expect the Saints to roll into Lincoln Financial Field today and put up 45 points again like they did last week.

Rams at Redskins, 1PM ET
It would be nice to see Jim Zorn take the training wheels off his offense and let quarterback Jason Campbell throw the ball downfield more. If Zorn doesn’t trust Campbell to throw the ball vertically against the defensively challenged Rams, then he’ll trust him in any situation. As soon as Zorn establishes the run with Clinton Portis, he should allow Campbell to challenge St. Louis’s suspect secondary and take shots down field. The over/under on sacks for Albert Haynesworth in this game has been set at 24. And the over/under on Marc Bulger flashing that hapless expression after he makes a mistake is 70.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sunday’s Best: Panthers (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
This isn’t the sexiest matchup on the Week 6 schedule, but it’s a battle for first place in the NFC South. Carolina is coming off a 34-0 rout of the Chiefs, a game in which they held Larry Johnson to only two yards rushing, while Tampa dropped a close one in Denver. The Panthers can thank a healthy Jake Delhomme and a stingy run defense for their hot start this season. With Delhomme back under center and a nice 1-2 punch of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, the Panthers’ offense has been incredibly balanced this season and therefore, hard to stop. And Carolina’s front seven has kept opponents from averaging over 100 yards on the ground. The Bucs will go back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback with Brian Griese nursing an injured arm. It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers take away Tampa’s 8th-best rushing attack, because the last time the Bucs couldn’t run the ball was against the Bears – a game in which Griese attempted 67 passes. Will Garcia have to do the same this week?

Upset Watch: Cowboys (4-1) at Cardinals (3-2), 4:15 PM ET FOX
I’m going right back to the well. In my primer last week, I warned to watch out for the Cards upsetting the previously unbeaten Bills. I’ll do the same this week as the Cowboys roll into the desert after almost blowing a 17-point lead to the Bengals last Sunday. Dallas has more talent than any other team in the NFC, but they’ve proven to be as fragile as T.O.’s emotions. Arizona flat out plays a different brand of football at home and could have wideout Anquan Boldin back this week, although it’s doubtful. Even without Boldin, the Cards have more than enough weapons to score on a Dallas defense that is giving up close to 23 points a game. The key obviously will be whether or not Arizona can stop the Cowboys’ high-powered offense. Dallas is racking up over 400 yards and 30 points a game and the Cards are just two games removed from surrendering 56 points to the Jets. Even if ‘Zona can’t pull off the upset, I would expect one wild shootout.

Intriguing Matchup: Patriots (3-1) at Chargers (2-3) 8:15 PM ET NBC
Remember when New England mocked Shawne Merriman’s “Lights Out” dance after a playoff win in San Diego a couple of years ago and hurt LaDainian Tomlinson’s feelings? The Pats return to the scene of the crime and no team plays with a bigger chip on their shoulder (and for really no reason) than the Chargers. Even though they won in convincing fashion against the 49ers last week, this is clearly a different Patriots team without Tom Brady. (What a statement, I know). It’ll be interesting to see if Matt Cassel can have a coming out party this weekend, because no team in the entire NFL is playing worse against the pass right now than San Diego.

Other Notable Games:
Bears (3-2) at Falcons (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
The last time rookie QB Matt Ryan faced the Tampa 2 defense he had his worst outing as a pro, throwing two interceptions in a loss to the Bucs in Week 2. He’ll get a chance for redemption this week against Chicago, a team that has typically owned Atlanta in the past.

Jaguars (2-3) at Broncos (4-1), 4:15 PM ET FOX
Big Ben and the Steelers lit up Jacksonville’s defense last week. Will Jay Cutler and the Broncos’ offense do the same on Sunday?

Ravens (2-2) at Colts (2-2), 1:00 PM ET CBS
Peyton Manning vs. Ray Lewis is always fun to watch.