Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

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]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/20/2009-nfl-week-11-picks-predictions/feed/ 3 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/02/nfl-picks-predictions-week-4/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/02/nfl-picks-predictions-week-4/#comments Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:51:08 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=25694

Ravens (3-0) at Patriots (2-1), 1:00PM ET
I still can’t get over the Falcons’ game plan (if you can call it that) to defense Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. Atlanta decided to drop seven defenders into coverage and allow Brady time to find open receivers, read The Great Gatsby cover to cover and figure out a way to help turn around the economy. Brady won’t be afforded that kind of time this week against the Ravens, who will no doubt bring extra defenders and use multiple fronts in efforts to confuse the New England QB. Baltimore isn’t going to allow the Pats to control the game on the ground either, and although the Ravens still have issues in their secondary, I like them pulling off an upset in Foxboro. For anyone who thought the Pats resolved their issues last week in a win over the Falcons, this game should prove otherwise.
Odds: Patriots –2.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Patriots 30.

Titans (0-3) at Jaguars (1-2), 1:00PM ET
The Titans are like that hot ex-girlfriend that dumped you three times but you foolishly keep going back to her hoping she’s changed. I’ve picked Tennessee to win the last two weeks and have been let down both times. Yet, here I am again, waiting to get my stomach kicked in. Jeff Fisher’s team is too good to fall to 0-4 and lose to an average Jacksonville team right? Right?! I think the Titans will play inspired this week, won’t make as many stupid mistakes as they did last Sunday against the Jets and will force David Garrard to beat them through the air by taking away Maurice Jones-Drew. If Tennessee losses this week, I promise not to pick the Titans the rest of the year. (Until she calls me at two in the morning drunk and looking for a place to stay…then I’ve got to let her in, right? Right?!)
Odds: Jaguars –3.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 17.

Jets (3-0) at Saints (3-0), 4:05PM ET
I know the marquee matchup of the week is the Monday night game between the Packers and Vikings. But to me, this the most intriguing game on the Week 4 schedule based on the Saints’ high-powered offense and the Jets’ ability to make opposing quarterbacks want to rip their hair out. Sean Payton vs. Rex Ryan is as good as it comes and I’m interested to see how New York game plans to stop Brees, who is off to a MVP-like start. The key to will be Pierre Thomas and the Saints’ running game. Believe it or not, the Jets want Brees and the Saints to throw the ball 40-plus times because that means they’ve become one-dimensional and New York’s front four can pin their ears back and rush the passer. But if NO can strike an offensive balance early, they’ll be fine offensively and then it’ll be up to the defense to stop red-hot rookie Mark Sanchez. I like the Saints to win, but the Jets to cover.
Odds: Saints –7.
Prediction: Saints 24, Jets 20.

Cowboys (2-1) at Broncos (3-0), 4:15PM ET
I don’t trust either of these teams. The Cowboys beat a bad Bucs team (by allowing 21 points), were defeated by the Giants at home and got an ugly, uninspiring victory over the Panthers last Monday night. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 3-0 with wins over such NFL juggernauts the Bengals (which was a gift thanks to Leon Hall), the Browns and the Raiders. But regardless of whom they were playing, Denver’s defense has been freaking outstanding. They’re limiting opponents to only 5.3 points per game, 214.7 yards per game and lead the NFL in total defense. While their offense is stagnant right now, Kyle Orton and company should only improve week to week under Josh McDaniels. Tony Romo hasn’t played well since Tampa, while running backs Marion Barber and Felix Jones are dealing with injuries. I like the Broncos to win straight up as home underdogs.
Odds: Cowboys –3.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Cowboys 23.

Season Totals:
Straight up: 5-3
Against the Spread: 2-6 (Fade! Fade!)

NFL Week 4 Point Spreads & Over Under Totals.

Throughout the NFL season, I’ll pick four games every week that I tab as my “plays of the week.” I’ll keep track so readers can either cheer my knowledge or hammer my incompetence. Either way, it should be fun.

Gamblers: Proceed with caution and never be afraid to fade.

Rams at Redskins, 1:00PM ET FOX
St. Louis only won two games last year and finished the season on a 10-game losing streak. But they were never shut out – not once. In their opener last week, the Rams were blanked by Seattle 28-0 and the schedule makers were gracious enough to send them back on the road this week. Washington isn’t the most explosive team in the NFL, but the Redskins can methodically beat teams (especially bad teams) by moving the chains with their West Coast Offense. The Rams’ defense was shredded for 167 rushing yards last week, so Clinton Portis should have no problems finding room to run this Sunday. If Jim Zorn were ever going to allow quarterback Jason Campbell to throw the ball vertically more in the offense, this would be the game because St. Louis’ secondary is a mess. Look for Albert Haynesworth to help bottle up Steven Jackson and for the Redskins to cruise to their first victory of the year.
Odds: Redskins –9.5.
Predictions: Redskins 27, Rams 10.

Cardinals at Jaguars, 1:00PM ET FOX
The Cardinals have issues and their loss last week to the 49ers proves it. Losing offensive playcaller Todd Haley was a killer and it’s going to take some time for Kurt Warner and the rest of Arizona’s offense to get adjusted. Also, receiver Anquan Boldin is hurt and can’t create separation in his routes and although “Beanie” Wells showed flashes of his potential, the running game is still a major concern for this team. That said, we should see a more inspired and focused Cardinals team this weekend in Jacksonville. Ken Whisenhunt is a fine coach and is going to do everything in his power not to let ‘Zona fall to 0-2. Jacksonville played an inspired game in Indianapolis last week, but the Jags are still lacking playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and the new additions to the offensive line need time to gel. So while Jacksonville is much improved, they still have issues and I see Arizona’s defense keeping Maurice Jones-Drew somewhat in check. If this game comes down to the wire, I see the Cardinals’ offense coming through this Sunday, unlike last week when they became stagnant in the fourth quarter against the Niners.
Odds: Jaguars –3.
Prediction: Cardinals 16, Jaguars 13.

Panthers at Falcons, 1:00PM ET FOX
Things don’t get any easier for Jake Delhomme and the 0-1 Panthers as they face a confident Falcons team in the Georgia Dome this weekend. Atlanta forced four turnovers last week in its win over Miami, which doesn’t bode well for Delhomme, who threw four interceptions in Carolina’s loss to Philadelphia. That said, I expected Delhomme to play focused against the Falcons and allow DeAngelo Williams and the running game to take over. Atlanta played well defensively last week, but still gave up 4.4 yards per carry. The Panthers are going to keep everything on the ground this week and then take shots downfield when the Falcons start to creep their safeties to the line of scrimmage. Carolina will also try and take away Michael Turner and the Falcon running game, so expect another 35-40 passing attempts by Matt Ryan. While I expect the Panthers to keep this game close, Atlanta has too many weapons for Carolina’s defense to contest with and I don’t trust Delhomme as far as I can throw him.
Odds: Falcons –6.5.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 20.

Texans at Titans, 1:00PM ET CBS
This game is going to come down to weather or not Houston’s front seven can slow down Tennessee’s running game. The Texans’ defense allowed 190 yards on the ground last week to the Jets and things don’t get any easier this week against Chris Johnson and LenDale White. The Titans played well enough to win last week in Pittsburgh, but just couldn’t make enough plays in the end. I expect Tennessee to play inspired and give Matt Schaub fits. The Titans’ defense is also well aware that Steve Slaton is the only back to rush for over 100 yards against them last year, so they’ll have him bottled up for most of the day. If the Texans want to win, Schaub is going to have to beat them through the air and I just don’t see Cortland Finnegan and company giving up a ton of yards. It might not be pretty, but I expect Tennessee to soundly beat Houston and earn their first victory of the season.
Odds: Titans –7.
Prediction: Titans 27, Texans 17.