All right, so I’ll take 10 of 32 correct picks – especially this year where the draft is the ultimate mystery. Thanks to the ongoing CBA fiasco, teams haven’t had the opportunity to address needs in free agency, meaning there are countless scenarios that we could see play out Thursday night in the first round.

Feel free to poke, prod and criticize – just make sure you do it before the draft. Don’t be like this clown, who told me how dumb I was two years after I compiled my 2009 mock draft. (I know how dumb I am, so just be up front with me at the start.)

As a bonus, my colleague at TSR, John Paulsen, spent some time crunching the numbers in order to provide scouting combine comparisons for every player. I’ll let him describe the method behind his madness.

John: I compared each prospect’s combine scores with players from the last six combines to determine the best athletic comparison. There are eight categories: height, weight, 40-yard dash, shuttle, 3-cone, vertical leap, broad jump and bench press. Not all prospects compete in all six tests, so certain comparisons are more confident than others.
Realize that we’re not suggesting that these players will turn into their comparisons – we’re simply saying that athletically, this is whom each prospect compares to based on their combine numbers.

All right – let’s get nasty, Ricky.

No. 1 Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is a possibility at this pick, but I think when it comes down to it Ron Rivera will want to kick off his tenure in Carolina by taking a franchise quarterback. Newton is the ultimate boom or bust selection.
Combine Comparisons: Vince Young; Tim Tebow.

No. 2 Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
There has been a lot of talk the last two days that the Broncos are considering Von Miller with this pick. But he’s not the ideal fit for the 4-3 in my eyes and I think in the end, Dareus is too good to pass up here.
Combine Comparisons: Marcus Thomas; Corvey Irvin; Red Bryant.

No. 3 Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
The Bills may flirt with the idea of taking a quarterback with this pick and they could certainly use an upgrade on the defensive line. But in the end, I think GM Buddy Nix will take the unquestioned best player in the draft.
Combine Comparisons: Brandon Ghee, Malcom Jenkins, Myron Lewis, Aquib Talib. As John notes, Peterson is faster than all four, although Talib is the best comparison in terms of size/speed. Another interesting comparison is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who has the speed, but Peterson is almost 40 lbs heavier. Based on his 40, we really haven’t seen anyone with Peterson’s size/speed combination in the last six years.

No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
The Bengals need to figure out their quarterback situation in regards to Carson Palmer but I don’t think they’ll pull the trigger on Blaine Gabbert here. With T.O. not expected back and Chad Ochocinco’s status up in the air, I like the Bengals to go receiver at this spot. Julio Jones is definitely a possibility (a lot of mocks have Cincy taking him), but Green is still the better overall prospect.
Combine Comparisons: Malcom Kelly; Limas Sweed; Hank Baskett.

No. 5 Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Miller might not slip past Buffalo at No. 3 but if he does, I think Arizona would love to pair him with O’Brien Schofield at outside linebacker. Miller is viewed as the best pass-rushing OLB in the draft, which is certainly a need for the Cardinals (especially after they release Joey Porter and his $5.75 million salary in 2011).
Combine Comparisons: Aaron Curry; Clay Matthews.

No. 6 Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
GM Mike Holmgren says that he’s looking for a “home run threat” in this year’s draft and if that’s the case, Jones makes a lot of sense. The former ‘Bama star would be highly attractive to a West Coast team like the Browns because of his blocking and run-after-the-catch ability. A.J. Green and UNC’s Robert Quinn are also possibilities at this pick.
Combine Comparisons: Brian Robiskie; Vincent Jackson; Braylon Edwards; Laurent Robinson.

No 7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This team is hard to figure out. They would seemingly like to bring back Alex Smith for one year and take a QB in one of the first two rounds to groom this season. But they could always wait and draft their signal caller of the future next year. San Fran also has needs along the defensive line and at linebacker, making Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn possibilities at this pick as well. They would do back-flips if Peterson fell to them here, but with him off the board they’ll go with the next best thing in Amukamara.
Combine Comparisons: Aqib Talib; Antoine Cason.

No. 8 Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
For months I’ve projected Auburn’s Nick Fairley to this spot and he’s definitely a possibility. But at the end of the day, what is this team going to do at quarterback? Vince Young’s days in Tennessee are numbered and while they could also address the QB position in the middle rounds, if Gabbert slips I don’t see him falling past this pick.
Combine Comparisons: Jay Cutler; Dan LeFevour.

9. Dallas Cowboys: Tryon Smith, OT, USC
The Cowboys’ biggest need in some folks’ eyes is cornerback, but with Peterson and Amukamara off the board they choose to address their right tackle position with this pick. The ‘Boys need a replacement for Marc Colombo and the 20-year-old Smith is an extremely intriguing prospect. He’s a candidate to start as a rookie, no matter where he winds up.
Combine Comparisons: Sam Baker; Joe Berger. (Smith only performed in the bench press.)

No. 10 Washington Redskins: Robert Quinn, DE/LB, North Carolina
For me, the Skins are the hardest team to predict in Round 1. Blaine Gabbert and Julio Jones are both possibilities, but with those two players off the board I think Mike Shanahan will address his defense with the selection of Quinn.
Combine Comparisons: Ricky Sapp; Barka Atkins; AJ Edds; Justin Cole.

No. 11 Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
The Texans’ biggest weakness last year was their secondary, but there aren’t any safeties worthy of this spot and they do like their young corners. One way to help a struggling secondary is to beef up the pass rush, which is exactly what Houston does with the selection of Smith.
Combine Comparisons: Greg Hardy; Jason Pierre-Paul.

No. 12 Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
There’s growing sentiment that the Vikings will draft and start a rookie quarterback. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett isn’t really a fit for Minnesota, but Locker is. Even though he’s coming off a poor senior season, the former Washington product has great athleticism and sound intangibles.
Combine Comparisons: Vince Young; Stephen McGee; Tim Tebow.

No. 13 Detroit Lions: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
The Lions could address their offensive line with this pick but cornerback is just too big of a need for Detroit. Smith’s stock appears to be on the rise the closer we get to the draft, making this a good fit.
Combine Comparisons: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah; Antwaun Molden; Antoine Cason.

No. 14 St. Louis Rams: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Look, somebody is going to fall. It happens every year. Is it going to be Fairley? I don’t know but I’m taking a shot given his character concerns and the fact that he apparently missed his flight to the combine in February (and then a meeting while he was there). He would be a steal for the Rams at this spot and while I’m well aware he could go well before this, this is my free-faller prediction of this year’s draft.
Combine Comparisons: Gerald McCoy; Turk McBride.

No.15 Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
I’ve had Ingram slated to Miami in all four of my previous mocks and I’m not going to change now. Running back is the Dolphins’ biggest need and while Ingram’s stock seems to be slipping the closer we get to the draft, I really like the fit. Of course, the Fins could address their need at tackle at this spot and taking a running back later.
Combine Comparisons: Frank Gore (only did the 40, but very similar height, weight and speed); Benjarvus Green-Ellis; Ryan Torain.

No. 16 Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
The Jaguars are trying to rebuild their defensive line and Kerrigan fits the mold that Gene Smith is trying to go with in younger players. Kerrigan has a non-stop motor and displayed more athleticism at the scouting combine than scouts were expecting.
Combine Comparisons: Chris Long; Lawrence Sidbury.

No. 17 New England Patriots: Cam Jordan, DE, Cal
There’s a possibility that Jordan won’t fall this far but it would be like the Patriots to land a potential top-10 prospect in the middle of the first round. Of course, knowing Bill Belichick he probably won’t hang onto this pick either.
Combine Comparisons: C.J. Ah You; Victor Abamiri. (Only ran forty and performed in the bench press.)

No. 18 San Diego Chargers: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
The Chargers have needs at receiver, cornerback and offensive tackle, but adding another pass-rusher will be a top priority. At 6’6” and 292 pounds, Watt has the versatility to play as a defensive end in either a 4-3 or a 3-4.
Combine Comparisons: Daniel Te’o-Nesheim; Mario Williams; Chris Long.

No. 19 New York Giants: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
There are many draft observers who think the G-Men will wind up with running back Mark Ingram at this spot, although offensive tackle is a much bigger need in my eyes. And they’ll have their pick between Castonzo, Gabe Carimi, Derek Sherrod or Nate Solder.
Combine Comparisons: Corey Hilliard; Kraig Urbik.

No. 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da’Qaun Bowers, DE, Clemson
Bowers is one of the many intriguing mysteries surrounding the 2011 draft. Once viewed as a potential No. 1 overall pick, teams may be scared off by the health of his knee. In fact, there’s a good chance that he could even slip out of the first round entirely. But the Bucs have a huge need for a pass-rusher and if he medically checks out, then what a steal Bowers would be at this pick.
Combine Comparisons: Tim Jamison; Victor Adeyanju. (Bowers only participated in the bench press at the combine, so John was limited in his comparisons.)

No. 21: Kansas City Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
The Chiefs could go in a couple of directions here, including receiver, defensive tackle and even center. But at the end of the day, I could see GM Scott Pioli wanting to fortify his offensive line with the selection of Carimi, who would give KC an upgrade at right tackle. They could keep Branden Albert at left tackle and then plug Carimi (a strong run-blocker) on the right side.
Combine Comparison: Jamaal Brown.

No. 22 Indianapolis Colts: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
The Colts have ignored the offensive tackle position long enough. Their OL has been in steady decline over the past couple of years and given Peyton Manning’s struggles during a nasty three-game stretch last season (which was a combination of his poor decision-making and poor O-line play), the Colts would be wise to go OT here.
Combine Comparisons: Seth Olsen; Bryan Bulaga; Michael Toudouze.

No. 23 Philadelphia Eagles: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers’ stock appears to be falling the closer we get to the draft, but the Eagles need an impact player on defense. Ayers has the ability to get after the passer and could be used in a couple of different roles in new DC Juan Castillo’s system.
Combine Comparisons: A.J. Edds; Daryl Washington; Justin Cole.

No. 24 New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
The Saints’ lack of a pass-rush was apparent last year and while they could use an upgrade at outside linebacker, safety and defensive tackle, I don’t see them going in any other direction besides defensive end.
Combine Comparisons: Victor Adeyanju; Derrick Morgan; Darryl Tapp.

No. 25 Seattle Seahawks: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Jake Locker seems to be a popular pick for the Seahawks these days, although I have him going to Minnesota at No. 12 so obviously he’s not an option. With Russell Okung looking like a solid contributor on the left side, it’s time for the Hawks to address the position opposite him. Solder could be a nice upgrade over Sean Locklear.
Combine Comparisons: Daryn Colledge; Adam Koets.

No. 26 Baltimore Ravens: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
I could definitely see the Ravens addressing their offensive line with this pick, although my belief is that they like Mississippi State’s Derek Sherrod, whom I have going to Indy at No. 22. Wilkerson gives Baltimore’s defensive line a much-needed pass-rusher.
Combine Comparisons: Jared Odrick and Clifton Ryan.

No. 27 Atlanta Falcons: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
The Falcons like guys that can play different positions along the defensive line, which fits Heyward, who can play in either as a defensive end or defensive tackle in obvious pass-rush situations. After speaking with him around the Super Bowl, I can say firsthand that Heyward is a tremendous kid with great character and I think he’s going to do very well in the NFL. His dad, “Ironhead” Heyward once made his home in Atlanta, too.
Combine Comparisons: Doug Worthington (height/weight only); Titus Adams.

No. 28 New England Patriots: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
At 26-years-old, Watkins has the majority of a veteran in his prime. And if he were a couple of inches taller and a couple of years younger, he probably would have gone much higher than this. The interior of the Pats’ O-line could use an upgrade and if they hold onto this pick, Watkins would appear to be a good fit.
Combine Comparisons: Roy Scheuning, Leroy Harris and Matt Tennant.

No. 29 Chicago Bears: Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
Lovie Smith has been adamant that the Bears will bring back the 34-year-old Olin Kreutz, but the veteran really struggled last year and will need to be replaced at some point. Smith doesn’t like playing rookies anyway, so Wisniewski could learn the ropes for a couple of years and become Chicago’s center of the future.
Combine Comparison: Eric Wood.

No. 30 New York Jets: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
It’s funny, most mock drafts didn’t have Liuget going in the first round a couple of months ago. I had him going No. 14 to the Rams in my first two mocks, but now have him falling later in the first round. (I just see things breaking differently, which is why I have him listed here.) Either way, Liguet’s stock continues to rise and he’s a player that can play end in a 3-4 or slide inside on passing downs in Rex Ryan’s defense.
Combine Comparisons: Clifton Ryan.

No. 31 Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
All right – I’ll bite on the rumors.
Combine Comparisons: Matt Tennant and Ryan Harris.

No. 32 Green Bay Packers: Justin Houston, LB/DE, Georgia
Houston may not fall this far due to his ability to get to the quarterback but if he does, he’s an intriguing fit for Dom Capers and the Packers. Green Bay doesn’t have a lot of needs, but one thing Ted Thompson may look to add is a pass-rusher. Houston is probably better with his hand in the dirt but if the Packers could get him up to speed as an OLB, he and Clay Matthews could dominant quarterbacks for years to come.
Combine Comparisons: Brian Cushing; Clay Matthews; Aaron Curry; Sean Weatherspoon.

This is it – this one is for all the marbles. The two previous mock drafts I put together mean nothing, unless of course one of those is better than the one below. In that case, please consider that to be my final mock so I can save some face.

We’re just days away from the 2010 NFL Draft and as usual, the uncertainty surrounding which player will be drafted by which team is at an all-time high. Teams are sending out smokescreens, it’s hard to figure out which GM is telling the truth (probably roughly around none of them) and all the while, the media is trying to keep up with all the rumors.

But here it is – my final crack at predicting the first round. Feel free to share your opinions in the comments section, but remember that they’re only valid when you make predictions before the draft. Don’t be the tool that comes back here a week from now boasting that you knew that Team A would take Player X, or else you will be made fun of mercilessly by your peers.

Let the games begin and once again, Happy NFL Draft time fellow draftnits.

Originally posted: Monday, April 19

1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Ndamukong Suh is the best player in the 2010 draft and if teams only drafted based on talent, then the Nebraska defensive tackle would be the first player selected in round one. But Suh plays a position that most teams can’t justify investing a truckload of guaranteed money in. That’s why Bradford will be the No. 1 pick, along with the fact that the Rams desperately need a quarterback to help revitalize their morbid franchise. I’ve never wavered with this pick – I’ve believed that Bradford was going to be the Rams’ selection at No. 1 all along. If they believe that he’s a franchise quarterback, then Suh and every other prospect in this draft becomes inconsequential in the Rams’ eyes. There’s no more important position on a football field than the one that lines up under center every week. Is taking a quarterback this high a risk? Absolutely. But at the end of the day, a franchise can’t function without a good QB. That’s why St. Louis won’t hesitate to take Bradford here.

2. Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
The Lions want everyone to believe that they’ll take an offensive tackle like Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung with this pick and they may very well might. But if Suh is still on the board when the Lions are on the clock in the first round, then they’d be nuts to pass on him. Suh is the best player in the draft on either side of the ball and could be the player current Lions (and former Titans’ DC) head coach Jim Schwartz builds his defense around, a la Albert Haynesworth in Tennessee.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
McCoy has kind of become the forgotten top 5 prospect in this draft because he’s overshadowed by Suh. But he’s a difference maker and a force against the run. If the Rams take Bradford at No. 1, one of the two defensive tackles will fall to Tampa here, which is exactly what it wants. The Bucs need an interior presence in the middle of their line that can be effective both against the run and pass. McCoy can potentially be that player.

4. Washington Redskins: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
As long as Mike Shanahan’s claims that the Redskins will take a quarterback with this pick are untrue, then Williams could very well be the third Sooner to come off the board in the first four picks this year. Okung is regarded as the best offensive tackle in the draft, but Williams is a better fit for Washington’s new zone-blocking scheme, making him the choice here. He’s an excellent all-around blocker and has the potential to immediately fill the void left by Chris Samuels on the Redskins’ O-line.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
With Okung still on the board, the Chiefs’ selection of Bulaga would be viewed as a surprise. But there are always surprises in the top 10, so I’m taking a shot with this prediction. GM Scott Pioli has a close relationship with Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz, so Pioli has probably heard plenty of positive things about Bulaga. With KC’s need for an offensive tackle, this selection makes a lot of sense outside of the fact that I have the Chiefs passing on Okung. Either way, my belief is that KC will wind up selecting one of the OTs with this pick if they don’t trade down.

6. Seattle Seahawks: Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks desperately need left tackle help and if Okung is still available (which I fully admit is a reach), then this is a slam dunk pick. But keep your eye on Tennessee safety Eric Berry and Clemson running back C.J. Spiller here too. If the Hawks wind up with one of these players, Pete Carroll could easily take his former USC offensive tackle Charles Brown at No. 14.

7. Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
After all the moves new team president Mike Holmgren made this offseason, the final piece of the puzzle is acquiring a safety. If Berry slips past Seattle at No. 6, then I fully believe he’ll be the Browns’ pick here. If he doesn’t, then Cleveland might select Florida’s Joe Haden and move the newly acquired Sheldon Brown to safety. Of course, if another team wants Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen bad enough, Holmgren could possibly trade down, scoop up extra picks and address his need at safety later in the first round.

8. Oakland Raiders: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
I’ve updated this selection from Jimmy Clausen to Campbell. I think I liked the novelty of Clausen being selected by Oakland more than I believed it would happen, probably because nobody has really talked about the idea much. But at the end of the day, I don’t think wacky Al Davis will admit he was wrong about JaMarcus Russell by drafting Clausen. In fact, I think it’s more possible that the Raiders will wind up with Ben Roethlisberger than Clausen. After officially running a 4.85 40-yard dash and repping 225 pounds 34 times on the bench press at the Combine, Campbell has became a workout sensation and therefore, the perfect Davis prospect. Campbell is also viewed as the offensive lineman most likely to turn out to be a bust, which once again makes him a logical fit for Oakland. If the Raiders do draft Clausen I’ll be kicking myself for changing the pick, but something tells me I have a better shot of being right with Campbell here.

9. Buffalo Bills: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Buffalo has been brought up by some as a possible landing spot for Big Ben, but chances are they’re not going to take a risk like that. The Bills don’t have enough pieces to fit around Roethlisberger and probably wouldn’t want to pony up to pay him either. If they’re going to invest money on a quarterback, it might as well be a development project like Clausen, who could mature along with the Bills’ young offensive line. Assuming another team doesn’t trade ahead of Buffalo in order to nab him, Clausen is a logical fit and certainly makes sense given the team’s need at quarterback. The Bills could start Trent Edwards again next season while Clausen learns for a year, then he can take over in 2011. If the Bills pass on Clausen or he’s off the board, then I think an offensive tackle like Anthony Davis of Rutgers makes sense as well.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
If either Clausen or Spiller is still available here, I fully expect GM Gene Smith to try and trade this pick to a team that wants to move up. But if Jacksonville stays put, I envision them taking McClain or a pass rusher such as Georgia Tech’s Derrick Morgan. If McClain is the choice, then he would give the Jags a physical presence in the middle of their defense. He would also allow Daryl Smith and Justin Durant to play on the outside, giving Jacksonville a very talented linebacker corps.

11. Denver Broncos: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Usually when a prediction makes too much sense, it won’t happen. But after the Broncos traded Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins last week, it seems like a forgone conclusion that they’ll take Bryant with this pick. The former Cowboy has been criticized for being lazy, unmotivated and even has come under fire for having a “diva” attitude. But if you read between the lines, it appears that the reports on Bryant have been overblown. While Denver doesn’t want to take the chance on drafting the next Marshall, the team is in desperate need of more offensive playmakers, which Bryant could certainly supply. He’s a fantastic athlete if he’s motivated and he could turn out to be a steal at this pick.

12. Miami Dolphins: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
I’ve updated this pick from Derrick Morgan to Kindle. There’s a lot of buzz that if Morgan is available here, he’s a slam dunk for the Dolphins and that’s why I originally had him penciled in at this spot. But it’s usually the names you don’t hear about that wind up being selected. Miami needs a pass rusher more than anything and even though he’s regarded as the best defensive end in the draft, Morgan really isn’t a prototypical pass-rusher. After losing Joey Porter and Jason Taylor this offseason, the Dolphins need somebody that can come off the edge and give them a rush from the outside linebacker position. Kindle is that player – Morgan isn’t. Kindle is explosive, strong and a powerful tackler – all things Bill Parcells covets out of his defenders.

13. San Francisco 49ers: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
If Clausen falls this far, I fully believe that the 49ers would take him here. But with Clausen off the board, acting GM Trent Baalke will take the best player available, meaning Haden or Spiller depending on whom the Niners have at the top of their draft board. There’s a possibility that both Haden and Spiller could be gone and then San Fran would likely take the best offensive tackle available, but with the Florida CB still on the board in this mock, he’s the pick. Nate Clements has lost a step the past two years and there’s only marginal talent behind him on the depth chart. Haden is a true playmaker and easily the best corner prospect in the draft.

14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
I may have this pick backwards, as Seattle could take Spiller at No. 6 and then take an offensive tackle here. Either way, if the Hawks nab Spiller with either of their first round picks, they’d be taking an explosive playmaker that is a dangerous threat as a back, receiver and return man. He isn’t durable enough to take the pounding as a primary back, but Pete Carroll could use him in a similar fashion to how he used Reggie Bush at USC.

15. New York Giants: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
In my previous two mocks, I had the Giants selecting Florida’s Brandon Spikes, which makes sense given how badly the G-Men need a middle linebacker. But none of the middle linebackers that would be available at this pick – Spikes, Penn State’s Sean Lee, Washington’s Donald Butler or Mississippi State’s Jamar Chaney – are top 15 picks. That doesn’t mean the Giants won’t reach for one of those players (reaches happen all the time in the first round), but unless McClain falls to New York here, I’m starting to buy into the Pierre-Paul selection. If the Giants take the raw, but highly talented Pierre-Paul at No. 15, they could trade the disgruntled Osi Umeniyora later in the draft. So to recap this befuddled prediction, I think if McClain is still on the board here, the Giants will take him. If not, Pierre-Paul would be the pick and if not him, then Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon. Or Spikes…or Lee…or a punter…

16. Tennessee Titans: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
I had the Titans taking Florida’s Carlos Dunlap in my previous two mocks, but Dunlap has seemingly fallen off the radar in terms of pre-draft discussion. There’s a good chance that Morgan won’t fall this far, but if he gets past Miami at No. 12 he could free fall a bit. Another possibility at this spot is Michigan’s Brandon Graham, but either way I think Tennessee addresses the defensive end position.

17. San Francisco 49ers: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
The 49ers are the hardest team to predict in round one as they could go in a variety of directions. If Spiller is somehow still available here, they could take him. If they don’t nab a cornerback at No. 13, then Boise’s Kyle Wilson is a possibility as well. But at some point, they need to address their deficiencies on the offensive line and while Davis might be off the board by this pick, he’s the best OT available and fills a needs.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
The Steelers desperately need to upgrade the interior of their offensive line after the team’s ground game once again suffered in 2009. Pouncey is far and away the best center available in the draft and most teams have a first round grade on him. Given his ability to start immediately at either center or both guard positions, he’ll be a high commodity in the first round.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
I feel as though the fate of the Falcons’ pick rests with the decisions of the Giants and Steelers. If the Giants take Weatherspoon at No. 15, then the Falcons will likely target Pouncey. But if both Weatherspoon and Pouncey are off the board, GM Thomas Dimitroff may trade this pick in order to move down and reclaim the second round pick that he parted with last year in the Tony Gonzalez trade. Pierre-Paul and Graham are also options, seeing as how the Falcons need a pass rusher. But in the end, Weatherspoon is available in this mock and Atlanta is likely to pounce on him seeing as how they need more playmakers in their defensive front seven. A sleeper would be wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, although that seems far-fetched given Atlanta’s needs.

20. Houston Texans: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Texans could go in a variety of directions here, including offensive line and running back. But for the last two years I’ve predicted that Houston would take a running back in round one, only to see the Texans make a mockery (no pun intended) of my picks for them. This year I’m not taking the bait on the possibility of them drafting a running back to split carries with Steve Slaton. That said, Ryan Matthews is probably a freaking lock at this spot, but I digress. After losing Dunta Robinson to the Falcons via free agency, the Texans have a huge hole at cornerback and Williams’ stock rose dramatically during Senior Bowl week. He’s a flat out playmaker and while his size is a little concerning, he has the speed and athleticism to hopefully make the fans in Houston forget about Robinson.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Bengals entered the 2010 offseason with one mission: dramatically improve their dismal passing game. The signing of receiver Antonio Bryant confirms that Cincy is committed to upgrading its offense and the addition of Gresham in the first round would be another positive step in giving quarterback Carson Palmer more receiving weapons. After having surgery on his right knee, Gresham missed the entire 2009 season, which obviously sends up red flags to teams. But so far, he has been impressive in pre-draft workouts and all scouts have to do is pop on tape of his 2008 season to realize how much potential he has. He’s an excellent athlete with soft hands and uses his body well in space. He also has prototypical size (6’5”, 260 pounds), is a decent blocker and has a great work ethic.

22. New England Patriots: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
With Michigan’s Brandon Graham still on the board, the Patriots might take a chance on him becoming the next LaMarr Woodley. But Ordrick is a great fit for the 3-4 and while he’s an unspectacular player, he’s steady and shows a lot of potential. After losing Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green over the past year, New England is desperate to upgrade its pass-rush. Odrick does a great job getting off the ball quickly, although he struggles getting off blocks sometimes. He uses his hands well and can get up field quickly to crash the pocket but he’ll have to learn how to play with proper leverage at the next level. He’s not an elite prospect, but Belichick knows how to get the most out of his players and could certainly teach a hard worker such as Odrick.

23. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
The Packers could go in a variety of directions with this pick, including left tackle and cornerback. But while Florida State CB Patrick Robinson has a first round grade and would provide depth behind Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, some teams are apparently worried about his inconsistency. Thompson could always find corners later in the draft, so I think he’ll wait to address that need. If they don’t trade down, Graham makes a ton of sense at this spot assuming he’s available. Despite my suggesting that he’s a weight lifter posing as football player, Clay Matthews turned out to be a great pick last year for the Pack. He gave Dom Capers an excellent pass rusher in his 3-4 scheme and Graham could be a solid complement to Matthews on the opposite side. Green Bay needs to find a replacement for Aaron Kampman (who wasn’t a great fit for the 3-4 anyway), and the hard-working Graham could help fill that void. He was arguably the most impressive player at this year’s Senior Bowl and while he doesn’t have the prototypical size that scouts look for, there’s no denying that he’s an all-around solid football player with good bulk and a non-stop motor.

24. Philadelphia Eagles: Earl Thomas, S, Texas
The Eagles were candidates to take an outside linebacker such as Texas’ Sergio Kindle with this pick, but after fleecing the Lions in a trade for Ernie Sims, that need has been addressed. Many people believe that Thomas won’t make it this far and I agree. (Houston may take him a few spots ahead of Philly at No. 21, as could Jacksonville at No. 10.) But in this mock, everything falls right for a Philadelphia team that has upgraded its defense with a couple of solid offseason moves. Thomas has excellent athleticism and matches up well in coverage, something he’ll be doing a lot of in the Eagles’ defensive scheme.

25. Baltimore Ravens: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
If Odrick gets past New England, then I think he’s the pick here. But with him off the board, I believe the Ravens will beef up their defensive line by adding a player in Williams that offers major value and address a need. If Williams is off the board, then I see Baltimore addressing their cornerback need.

26. Arizona Cardinals: Rodger Saffold, OT, Indiana
After signing Joey Porter and acquiring Kamerion Wimbley via a trade with the Browns earlier this offseason, the Cards filled their need for outside linebackers that can rush the passer. With quarterback Kurt Warner now enjoying retirement life, Ken Whisenhunt is likely to revolve his offense around running back Beanie Wells. The best way to ensure that a back remains happy and productive is to build him a solid O-line.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
I’ve had Mays listed here in my previous two mocks, but the more I think about it the more I believe he’s a candidate to fall based on the uncertainty of whether or not he’ll play linebacker or safety. Thomas is going in the first round – I just don’t know where. I don’t know if he’ll fall this far, or if another team will trade back into the bottom of the first round to get him, but I do know that he’ll be taken among the first 32 picks. Miles Austin emerged as a true No. 1 receiver last year, but Roy Williams is still a dud on the other side. Jerry Jones could serve warning at this pick and also give Tony Romo another weapon in the passing game.

28. San Diego Chargers: Jahvid Best, RB, Cal
Normally when things look too good to be true when it comes to matching players up with certain teams, it usually is. But in the case of Best and the Chargers, I can’t resist pairing these two together. The Bolts are desperate for running back help and they need a complement to Darren Sproles now that LaDainian Tomlinson is off to New York. Best is a phenomenal athlete and up until he suffered a freak injury at the tale end of the 2009 season, he was on pace to challenge for the Heisman. Considering he went to Cal, this seems like the perfect fit but then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if San Diego took a long look at Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews either.

29. New York Jets: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
Iupati just seems like a Rex Ryan type of player, doesn’t he? Now, there’s a good chance that Iupati won’t be available when the Jets pick here and I fully admit that this selection is based on the rumor that the team will either trade or release Alan Faneca at some point this offseason. That said, this would be a great sleeper pick for the Jets, especially if they do decide to part ways with Faneca. If Iupati is off the board, the Jets might take someone like TCU’s Jerry Hughes to give Ryan another pass-rusher to play with.

30. Minnesota Vikings: Taylor Mays, S, USC
The Vikings’ most pressing need is at safety and assuming Brad Childress and company view Mays as a safety and not a linebacker, then he makes a ton of sense here. Mays is a tough, instinctive defender that can absolutely lay the wood on ball carriers. He would bring some toughness to Minnesota’s secondary, something that has been lacking over the years. If he’s off the board or the Vikes pass, then I could see them selecting a cornerback like Virginia’s Chris Cook or Rutgers’ Devin McCourty.

31. Indianapolis Colts: Charles Brown, OT, USC
The Colts are always one of the hardest teams to predict in mock drafts because there never seems to be any rumors surrounding them at this time of year. That said, they have a need at offensive tackle and Brown is apparently moving up the draft boards. If he’s available, he could make fans forget about Tony Ugoh, who has turned out to be a massive bust following a very promising rookie campaign.

32. New Orleans Saints: Jerry Hughes, LB, TCU
After cutting Charles Grant in the offseason, I envisioned the Saints selecting Griffin to help fill the void left at defensive end. But after they recently inked Alex Brown to a two-year contract, that need has been filled. Outside linebacker continues to be a need, however, and Hughes would be a solid fit. He’s extremely athletic and his up-tempo style of play would work well on the Superdome’s carpet. He’s a little undersized and lacks bulk, but he’s aggressive and he works well in coverage.

Updated 4/21/10 7:30PM ET.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

With the Redskins’ acquisition of Donovan McNabb, it’s a perfect time to update my mock draft. In my first mock, I had the Redskins taking Jimmy Clausen at No. 4, but with their need at quarterback being filled with the trade for McNabb, the dynamics in the top 10 have changed.

Here’s my second crack at predicting the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft.

(Side note: If I have the team selecting the same player as I did in my first mock, then my explanation of the pick will be the same in most occasions.)

1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I have Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh rated as the unquestioned best player in this year’s draft. (Well, I don’t have an official ranking per se, but in my head he’s No. 1.) But that doesn’t mean I think the Rams will take him. Teams usually get quirky about the No. 1 overall pick. They feel as though they have to match the contract with the position in order to justify the player they’re taking, which is completely backwards when you think about it. A team should mostly be concerned with taking the right player that matches their scheme. But I digress. Bradford is the top rated quarterback and the Rams have a major need at the position now that the ultra-brutal Marc Bulger has been released. The Rams feel as though they need to breathe some excitement into their dull franchise and taking Bradford should do the trick. Is he the right player? That’s debatable.

2. Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Their trade for DT Corey Williams kind of throws me off a little, but I still think that if Suh is available the Lions won’t pass on him. Jim Schwartz built one hell of a defense in Tennessee centered around Albert Haynesworth and he could view Suh the same way. He’s a difference-maker up front and regardless of whether or not he and Williams play the same position, if Suh is as good as I think he is then Schwartz will find a way to utilize him. Offensive tackle Russell Okung has been mentioned at this pick but again, if Suh is available I can’t see the Lions leaving him on the board.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
If the Rams wind up taking Bradford with the top pick, you might be able to hear the sounds of screams and jubilation coming from Tampa. That’s because the Bucs would love to land one of the two stud defensive tackles in this draft and if Bradford goes No. 1, then either Suh or McCoy would slip to Tampa here. Some people are down on McCoy after he only benched 225 pounds 23 times at the combine, but that’s not a justifiable reason for his stock to slip. A lot of defensive tackles are forced to shed weight for the combine and when they do, they lose strength in the process. Besides, not taking a player because of how he performed on the bench at the combine is ridiculous notion anyway. McCoy would be a great fit for the Bucs.

4. Washington Redskins: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Our first change. After acquiring McNabb from Philadelphia, the Redskins’ biggest need now becomes protecting their new toy. While Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is the top rated tackle on most draft boards, he isn’t a better fit than Williams in Mike Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme. Williams is light on his feet, agile, and quick while moving laterally, which are all vital characteristics for an offensive lineman to possess when playing in the zone-blocking scheme. Okung is a terrific athlete as well, but can play tall at times and is more of a mauler than a technician.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
The Chiefs sunk a ton of money into quarterback Matt Cassel last year, so it would be wise if they took the necessary steps to keep him upright. Okung is regarded by most to be the top offensive linemen in the draft, although he’s not necessary an elite prospect. Still, he’s a good all-around player that could play at either tackle position and would surely upgrade Kansas City’s under performing (that’s a kind way of saying “brutal”) offensive line.

6. Seattle Seahawks: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
The Seahawks could go in several directions here – including Berry, whom I had them taking in my first mock. But after acquiring Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego, Pete Carroll needs to rebuild the Seahawks’ offense from the inside out. That means drafting a mauler like Bulaga in the first round to help anchor the team’s struggling offensive line. Bulaga might not get past Kansas City at No. 5 seeing as how Chiefs’ GM Scott Pioli has a close relationship with Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz. But if he does, the Seahawks would be wise to pounce on him and fill the big void at their offensive tackle spot. If Bulaga goes one spot ahead of the Seahawks, Okung might be there for the taking.

7. Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
After trading for Sheldon Brown a couple of weeks ago, cornerback is no longer the Browns’ most pressing need. That would be safety, which they could address by selecting Berry with this pick. If he slips past the Seahawks at No. 6, I have a hard time believing that Mike Holmgren would pass on Berry, who could upgrade an already underrated Cleveland secondary immediately. Berry is the type of thumper that the Browns need to help in run support and over in the middle in coverage, a la Bob Sanders of the Colts.

8. Oakland Raiders: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Ever since the Redskins traded for McNabb, I’ve been sounding off the Clausen-to-Oakland horns. But everything depends on whether or not Al Davis is ready to dump JaMarcus Russell, who may wind up being the biggest bust in NFL history. Clausen is NFL-ready after playing in Charlie Weis’ system at Notre Dame and has the swagger that Davis covets in his players. He’s also a student of the game, which is something Russell doesn’t have a clue about. If Davis mans up and cuts his losses with Russell, Clausen should be there for the taking at No. 8.

9. Buffalo Bills: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
With Bulaga coming off the board at No. 6, Davis becomes the best offensive tackle on the board. With the selections of Eric Wood and Andy Levitre in last year’s draft, the Bills showed that they are committed to rebuilding their offensive line. The Bills have needs in other areas (WR, QB, etc.), they could pair Davis up with Wood and Levitre for the foreseeable future and then address other positions later in the draft. If they’re feeling frisky, Dez Bryant is a possibility here, as is Jimmy Clausen if he gets past Oakland at No. 8.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
I’ve decided that Bryant was a little risky for the Jaguars at No. 10 and a more sensible choice for them would be either a linebacker or a defensive end at this pick. After signing free agent Aaron Kampman and re-signing Reggie Hayward in the offseason, I was leaning towards Jacksonville taking linebacker Rolando McClain with this pick. However, Kampman and Hayward are both in their 30s now, so the Jags really didn’t do much to upgrade their defensive end position long-term. Plus, Hayward was only re-signed for one year and is coming off an injury-riddled 2009 season. Outside of Dez Bryant, Morgan is arguably the best player left on the board and is more of a long-term solution at defensive end for Jacksonville. The Jags racked up a league-worst 14 sacks in ’09, so it doesn’t hurt for them to add as many pass rushers as they can.

11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
It’s hard to predict what the Broncos will do on draft day without knowing whether or not Brandon Marshall will be traded. If he is, then Denver might select Dez Bryant here, seeing as how they would be completely devoid of offensive playmakers without Marshall. But with Marshall still on the roster, McClain is the pick and I think he’s a perfect fit at inside linebacker in new offensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s scheme. McClain is versatile enough to play either inside or outside in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme given his size (6’4”, 258 pounds) and speed (he runs a 4.6 40-yard dash), and should be the first linebacker taken in April.

12. Miami Dolphins: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB, South Florida
There’s a lot of speculation that Bryant will slip into the 20s on draft day, but I think that’s a ridiculous notion. First of all, his “troubled past” seems to be overblown and secondly, not too many teams are going to pass on a player of his talent. If Randy Moss (who was much more of a risk) didn’t make it past pick No. 21, neither will Bryant. The Dolphins have a major need for pass rushers, but Bill Parcells can shop for those later in the draft. What Miami needs most is more playmaking talent on the offensive side of the ball. Ted Ginn Jr. might be a dangerous kick returner, but it doesn’t appear that he’ll live up to expectations and become a true No. 1 wideout. Bryant has all the tools to become Chad Henne’s go-to guy and with Parcells overseeing things, the Oklahoma State product will be kept in line.

13. San Francisco 49ers: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
With Williams off the board, I don’t think the 49ers will reach on an offensive tackle such as Maryland’s Bruce Campbell, who carries a second round grade. Instead, with Haden falling out of the top 10 in this mock, he could potentially upgrade a secondary that offers marginal talent after Nate Clements, who has lost a step in the past two years. Haden is an outstanding playmaker and I would be surprised if he fell out of the top 15. Top flight cornerbacks don’t fall too far in the first round and considering Haden is the best of the bunch this year, he makes sense at this spot.

14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
With Morgan off the board, the Seahawks take the next best defensive end in Pierre-Paul. Many people expect the Seahawks to address their offense with each of their first round picks, but they need to add a pass-rusher to help a depleted defense. Patrick Kerney isn’t getting any younger and his play has dramatically fallen off in each of the last two years. Pierre-Paul is an explosive athlete with a fantastic motor and might even be less of a risk than Morgan.

15. New York Giants: Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
I know, I know – this would probably be a reach. But with McClain coming off the board at No. 11, Spikes makes sense for a couple of reasons. GM Jerry Reese has a history of drafting for need (see Aaron Ross and Kenny Phillips) and the Giants’ most pressing need right now is middle linebacker. Reese also likes players that were productive in college (again, see Ross and Phillips) and there’s no question Spikes (307 career tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss) was productive while at Florida. Yes, Spikes would be a bit of a reach here but with the team’s signing of safety Antrel Rolle, I believe Reese will target and fill the Giants’ most pressing need.

16. Tennessee Titans: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
The Titans have a huge void at defensive end now that Kyle Vanden Bosch has signed with the Lions and Dunlap is the best defensive end on the board (although some would argue for Michigan’s Brandon Graham). The Titans’ pass defense struggled mightily in 2010, but part of that was because the team couldn’t generate an effective pass rush. After receiving a DUI before the Sugar Bowl this year, Dunlap’s character has been questioned. But there’s no denying his talent and if the Titans can look past his one big mistake, they could wind up with a great prospect with a high ceiling.

17. San Francisco 49ers: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
There’s a possibility that Spiller won’t fall this far and there’s also a chance that the Niners could grab him at No. 13. But in this mock, everything works out perfectly for San Fran as Spiller falls. The Clemson product is a dynamic playmaker and could be a great complement to Frank Gore. The Niners could use him in a variety of ways, including lining him up in the slot and taking advantage of his excellent pass-catching abilities. He has durability issues and therefore shouldn’t be counted on to be a primary back, but that wouldn’t be a problem for the Niners with Gore already on the roster. Plus, Spiller would finally give San Fran the threat in the return game that it has sorely needed for years. The 49ers might also tab one of the best remaining offensive tackles at this spot too, especially if Spiller is off the board.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
I realize this isn’t a very sexy pick, but the Steelers need a major upgrade on the interior of their offensive line. Right guard Trai Essex is as close to a disaster as you can get in both the run blocking and pass protection. In fact, there’s a good chance that as long as Iupati proves that he can chance his socks in the morning that the Steelers will trust him enough to start over Essex. While still a very raw prospect, Iupati has excellent size and has a huge frame with long arms. He’s an outstanding athlete with great mobility and explosion, and would immediately upgrade the Steelers’ run blocking.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
A lot of people expect the Falcons to take a pass-rusher with this pick after they signed free agent Dunta Robinson to upgrade their secondary. But even though former first round pick Jamaal Anderson has been a massive bust, the Falcons really like youngsters Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury and believe they will develop. If that indeed is the case, then outside linebacker would move to the top of Atlanta’s needs. Mike Peterson won’t play forever and while he’s a steady player, Stephen Nicholas isn’t the game-changer the Falcons want alongside middle linebacker Curtis Lofton. Weatherspoon, who is a fantastic athlete with great speed and burst, is the type of sideline-to-sideline playmaker that the Falcons covet. Other options at this spot are Sergio Kindle, Carlos Dunlap, Kyle Williams or even an offensive lineman.

20. Houston Texans: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Texans could go in a variety of directions here, including offensive line and running back. But for the last two years I’ve predicted that Houston would take a running back in round one, only to see the Texans make a mockery (no pun intended) of my picks for them. This year I’m not taking the bait on the possibility of them drafting a running back to split carries with Steve Slaton. That said, Ryan Matthews is probably a freaking lock at this spot, but I digress. After losing Dunta Robinson to the Falcons via free agency, the Texans have a huge hole at cornerback and Williams’ stock rose dramatically during Senior Bowl week. He’s a flat out playmaker and while his size is a little concerning, he has the speed and athleticism to hopefully make the fans in Houston forget about Robinson.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Bengals entered the 2010 offseason with one mission: dramatically improve their dismal passing game. The signing of receiver Antonio Bryant confirms that Cincy is committed to upgrading its offense and the addition of Gresham in the first round would be another positive step in giving quarterback Carson Palmer more receiving weapons. After having surgery on his right knee, Gresham missed the entire 2009 season, which obviously sends up red flags to teams. But so far, he has been impressive in pre-draft workouts and all scouts have to do is pop on tape of his 2008 season to realize how much potential he has. He’s an excellent athlete with soft hands and uses his body well in space. He also has prototypical size (6’5”, 260 pounds), is a decent blocker and has a great work ethic.

22. New England Patriots: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
With Michigan’s Brandon Graham still on the board, the Patriots might take a chance on him becoming the next LaMarr Woodley. But Ordrick is a great fit for the 3-4 and while he’s an unspectacular player, he’s steady and shows a lot of potential. After losing Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green over the past year, New England is desperate to upgrade its pass-rush. Odrick does a great job getting off the ball quickly, although he struggles getting off blocks sometimes. He uses his hands well and can get up field quickly to crash the pocket but he’ll have to learn how to play with proper leverage at the next level. He’s not an elite prospect, but Belichick knows how to get the most out of his players and could certainly teach a hard worker such as Odrick.

23. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
The Packers could go in a variety of directions with this pick, including left tackle and cornerback. But none of the available offensive tackles (Vladimir Ducasse, Bruce Campbell, Charles Brown) are first round prospects and thus, Ted Thompson would be reaching by selecting one of them here. Florida State CB Patrick Robinson has a first round grade and would provide depth behind Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, but some teams are worried about his inconsistency and Thompson could find corners later in the draft. If they don’t trade down, Graham makes a ton of sense at this spot assuming he’s available. Despite my suggesting that he’s a weight lifter posing as football player, Clay Matthews turned out to be a great pick last year for the Pack. He gave Dom Capers an excellent pass rusher in his 3-4 scheme and Graham could be a solid complement to Matthews on the opposite side. Green Bay needs to find a replacement for Aaron Kampman (who wasn’t a great fit for the 3-4 anyway), and the hard-working Graham could help fill that void. He was arguably the most impressive player at this year’s Senior Bowl and while he doesn’t have the prototypical size that scouts look for, there’s no denying that he’s an all-around solid football player with good bulk and a non-stop motor.

24. Philadelphia Eagles: Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
For a team that made the playoffs last year, the Eagles have plenty of holes to fill before Week 1. They could stand to add depth or even a starter at several spots on their offensive line and they probably need to add another back at some point to complement “Shady” McCoy. Defensively, they needed a defensive end opposite Trent Cole, but they filled that void by acquiring Darryl Tapp from the Seahawks. Safety is another area of need, but I think if Kindle is on the board than he would be more of a risk than a guy like Taylor Mays. There’s a good chance that Kindle (who is the best OLB prospect in the draft) won’t last this long, but if things break right for the Eagles, he would finally give Philly a playmaker that they desperately need from their linebacker position. Even with Cole and Tapp already on board, Kindle could give the Eagles another pass-rusher in their 4-3 scheme.

25. Baltimore Ravens: Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
I’m convinced that the Ravens will take a cornerback, I’m just not completely sold on which one. After filling their biggest need of the offseason by acquiring receiver Anquan Boldin, the Ravens can turn their attention to addressing voids on their defense. Adding another pass rusher would certainly be beneficial and if Jared Odrick is available, I don’t see them passing on him. However, while Dominique Foxworth and his big contract are entrenched at one corner spot, Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb are coming off serious knee injuries and there’s not much depth behind them. Rumor has it that an important presence was on hand for the Ravens at McCourty’s Pro Day in March, which may signal that they’re leaning towards him. Of course, Florida State’s Patrick Robinson is still a possibility here as well.

26. Arizona Cardinals: Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts
The Cardinals are in the midst of a major changing of the guard. Kurt Warner retired, Anquan Boldin was traded to Baltimore and Karlos Dansby moved on to greener pastures. Even though Ken Whisenhunt will keep the same offense intact, there’s no doubt that his philosophy will have to change. Matt Leinart isn’t a gunslinger and if he winds up beating out Derek Anderson for the starting quarterback job, then the Cards will become a run-first team with Beanie Wells being the focus. That said, look for them to upgrade their offensive tackle position with a prospect such as Ducasse or Maryland’s Bruce Campbell. They could also address their need for a pass rusher with this pick, but my money’s on them upgrading the offensive line seeing as how Wells is now their meal ticket.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Taylor Mays, S, USC
I’ve been conflicted on where Mays will wind up, but I think this is an appropriate spot for him. Some teams view him as a safety, others as an undersized linebacker. Some pundits still believe he could still be the elite prospect that he was before returning to USC his senior year, while others think he’s overrated. But after a great showing at the Senior Bowl and scouting combine, I think Jerry Jones will jump at the chance to add a high risk, high reward prospect such as Mays to upgrade his secondary.

28. San Diego Chargers: Jahvid Best, RB, Cal
Normally when things look too good to be true when it comes to matching players up with certain teams, it usually is. But in the case of Best and the Chargers, I can’t resist pairing these two together. The Bolts are desperate for running back help and they need a complement to Darren Sproles now that LaDainian Tomlinson is off to New York. Best is a phenomenal athlete and up until he suffered a freak injury at the tale end of the 2009 season, he was on pace to challenge for the Heisman. Considering he went to Cal, this seems like the perfect fit but then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if San Diego took a long look at Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews either.

29. New York Jets: Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
After recently trading for Santonio Holmes, wide receiver is no longer a pressing need for the Jets so Tate no longer makes sense. The Jets don’t have any pressing needs on defense, but giving Rex Ryan another pass rusher to play with is never a bad idea. Hughes just seems like a Ryan-type player based on his athleticism and speed. He’s not a fit at end in a 3-4, but he could certainly stand up and play as an edge rusher a la Terrell Suggs (only, Hughes doesn’t have Suggs’ size). As soon as the Jets give up on mega-bust Vernon Gholston, Hughes could fit right in.

30. Minnesota Vikings: Chris Cook, CB, Virginia
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
Cook carries a second or even a third round grade, but if history is any indication, that means nothing this late in the first round. A team like the Vikings that doesn’t have many holes to fill can select the player they want without worrying about getting value. Cook might not be there when Minnesota drafts in the second round and rumor has it they’re in love with the Virginia product, who gives the Vikes’ insurance in case Cedric Griffin suffers a setback with his ACL injury.

31. Indianapolis Colts: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
GM Bill Polian was publicly critical of the Colts’ offensive line play after the Super Bowl and now that Tony Ugoh has turned out to be a massive disappointment, there’s a good chance Indy will address its tackle need here. Campbell is a raw prospect, but he has outstanding size (6’6”, 314) and could benefit from being coached by an outstanding staff.

32. New Orleans Saints: Daryl Washington, LB, TCU
Mock Draft 1.0 Pick: Everson Griffin, DE, USC
After cutting Charles Grant in the offseason, I envisioned the Saints selecting Griffin to help fill the void left at defensive end. But after they recently inked Alex Brown to a two-year contract, that need has been filled. Outside linebacker continues to be a need, however, and Washington would be a solid fit. He’s extremely athletic and his up-tempo style of play would work well on the Superdome’s carpet. He’s a little undersized and lacks bulk, but he’s aggressive and he works well in coverage.

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The full mock is finally completed!

I waited a lot longer than I normally do to compile my first mock draft of the year. Normally I whip up my first batch of mock draft right after the scouting combine, but this year I wanted to see what happened at the start of free agency before I even remotely considered whom teams would select in April.

I get as excited as any true draftnik about mock drafts, but how could anyone venture a guess at what player a team will select without knowing what big free agents signed where? It’s like taking a long road trip to a place you’ve never been before without your GPS. (Wow, have the times changed. A couple of years ago, I would have ended that sentence with “without your map” but that damn technology continues to track us down like a bear preying on an injured deer.)

Below is my first crack at predicting the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft. As usual, feel free to argue my picks as much as you like but please, debate with some dignity. Don’t be the doucher that ruins the fun of mock drafts by spewing venom in the comments section of a sports blog. There may not be anything more pathetic.

1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I have Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh rated as the unquestioned best player in this year’s draft. (Well, I don’t have an official ranking per se, but in my head he’s No. 1.) But that doesn’t mean I think the Rams will take him. Teams usually get funny about the No. 1 overall pick. They feel as though they have to match the contract with the position in order to justify the player they’re taking, which is completely backwards when you think about it. A team should be most concerned with taking the right player that matches their scheme. But I digress. Bradford is the top rated quarterback and the Rams have a major need at the position with Marc Bulger proving over the past two years that he’s better suited to run the scout team offense in practice and then the first unit on Sundays. The Rams feel as though they need to breathe some excitement into their dull franchise and taking Bradford should do the trick. Is he the right player? That’s debatable.

2. Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Their trade for DT Corey Williams kind of throws me off a little, but I still think that if Suh is available the Lions won’t pass him up. Jim Schwartz built one hell of a defense in Tennessee centered around Albert Haynesworth and he could view Suh the same way. He’s a difference-maker up front and regardless of whether or not he and Williams play the same position, if Suh is as good as I think he is then Schwartz will find a way to utilize him.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
If the Rams do wind up taking Bradford with the top pick, you might be able to hear the sounds of screams and jubilation coming from Tampa. That’s because the Bucs would love to land one of the two stud defensive tackles in this draft and if Bradford goes No. 1, then either Suh or McCoy would slip to Tampa here. Some people are down on McCoy after he only benched 225 pounds 23 times at the combine, but that’s not a justifiable reason for his stock to slip. A lot of defensive tackles are forced to shed weight for the combine and when they do, they lose strength in the process. Besides, not taking a player because of how he performed on the bench in the combine is ridiculous notion anyway. McCoy would be a great fit for the Bucs.

4. Washington Redskins: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
I would love to write OT Russell Okung’s name here, but he’s not really a fit for Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. Plus, even though the Redskins extended a first-round tender to restricted free agent Jason Campbell, it doesn’t mean Shanahan and more specifically, Daniel Snyder, are satisfied with their QB situation. If the Skins take Clausen here, the clock on Campbell’s (if he doesn’t request a trade) time in Washington will start ticking. Campbell could start in 2010 until Clausen is ready to take over the reigns in 2011.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
The Chiefs sunk a ton of money into quarterback Matt Cassel last year, so it would be wise if they took the necessary steps to keep him upright. Okung is the top offensive linemen in the draft, although he’s not necessary an elite prospect. Still, he’s a good all-around player that could play at either tackle position and would surely upgrade Kansas City’s under performing (that’s a kind way of saying “brutal”) offensive line.

6. Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Yikes – what do I do here? The Hawks have been linked to Brandon Marshall and Kevin Kolb this offseason, so there’s a possibility that they won’t have this selection come April. But I don’t predict trades in my mocks and seeing as how Bradford, Clausen and Okung are already off the board I’ll admit I’m a little lost as to whom Seattle would take here. However, with Berry slipping in this mock, he seems like an ideal fit for a team that needs starters at both safety positions. and he would also be the best player available. Berry is the type of player that could make an immediate impact in his rookie year, depending on how well he grasped a team’s scheme and playbook, of course.

7. Cleveland Browns: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Given Mike Holmgren’s free agent moves thus far (OT Tony Pashos, LB Scott Fujita, QB Seneca Wallace), it appears that the Browns will target the secondary with this pick, whether it’s a safety or cornerback. Berry would be an ideal fit for Cleveland, but with him going to Seattle one pick before Haden makes a lot of sense here. Some scouts have expressed concern with his top end speed, but anyone who watched Haden play at Florida knows that he’s an excellent athlete with good size and coverage skills. The Browns need one starter at cornerback and one at safety and they should fill one of those voids with this pick.

8. Oakland Raiders: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
This pick might be too logical for Al Davis’ liking, but the fact of the matter is that the offensive tackle position has been a major need for the Raiders for quite awhile now. There are some concerns about Davis’ conditioning habits, but he’s the most physically gifted lineman in the draft and he’s the type of athlete that Al Davis covets.

9. Buffalo Bills: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
With the selections of Eric Wood and Andy Levitre in last year’s draft, the Bills showed that they are committed to rebuilding the offensive line. Bulaga put himself on the map by making top defensive end prospect Derrick Morgan a non-factor in the Orange Bowl this year and has the type of work ethic teams covet from draft prospects. While the Bills have needs at other areas (QB, WR, etc.), the thought of Bulaga anchoring their line might be too hard for Buffalo to pass up.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Second year GM Gene Smith is an advocate for taking the best player available regardless of position, which is why he selected offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton in the first two rounds of last year’s draft, even though they play the same position. In this mock, the best players available would arguably be Bryant and Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan. And with the Jags already filling their defensive end need with the signing of free agent Aaron Kampman, Bryant would make the most sense. Many teams are concerned with what is being deemed as Bryant’s “diva” attitude, but he’s such an outstanding prospect that he’s kind of a steal at No. 10. In fact, many scouts believe that he’s just as good of a prospect as Michael Crabtree was.

11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
If Bryant didn’t come off the board at No. 10, I could certainly see the Broncos tabbing him to replace Brandon Marshall if/when the receiver is traded. Denver would be hurting for playmakers on the offensive side of the ball without Marshall and Bryant could help them address that need. But with Bryant gone, McClain is the pick and I think he’s a perfect fit at inside linebacker in new offensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s scheme. McClain is versatile enough to play either inside or outside in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme given his size (6’4”, 258 pounds) and speed (he runs a 4.6 40-yard dash), and should be the first linebacker taken in April.

12. Miami Dolphins: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB, South Florida
Many mocks have Derrick Morgan long gone by this point and most have him rated higher than Pierre-Paul. But Morgan isn’t the ideal fit for Miami as Pierre-Paul is, which is the reason I have the Dolphins taking the South Florida product at this spot and not Morgan. Bill Parcells understands Miami’s need for a pass rusher, especially after the team released Joey Porter this offseason. Paired with the new addition Karlos Dansby and veteran Channing Crowder, Pierre-Paul could give the Dolphins the edge-rusher they so desperately need.

13. San Francisco 49ers: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
The 49ers could go in a couple different directions here because they also pick at No. 17, but they’re desperate for offensive tackle help and won’t risk Williams coming off the board. The Oklahoma product is a tad short and doesn’t have real long arms, but he’s a great athlete and has outstanding strength. He’s also extremely tough and plays with a nasty demeanor, which are two characteristics that Mike Singletary will love to have in the trenches. Williams also got loads of experience while playing at Oklahoma and was a three-year starter.

14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
As I noted in the Dolphins’ write up, many mocks have Morgan coming off the board well before this spot. In fact, some have him going to the Seahawks with the No. 6 pick. But in this mock, he slipped to this spot and I doubt he’ll fall out of the top 15. I know many people believe the Hawks will address their offense with their two first round picks, but if both Berry and Morgan fall to them at No. 6 and No. 14, they could dramatically upgrade their defense. Running back C.J. Spiller is another candidate for the Seahawks if Morgan is long gone at this spot, as is safety Taylor Mays.

15. New York Giants: Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
I know, I know – this would probably be a reach. But with McClain coming off the board at No. 11, Spikes makes sense for a couple of reasons. GM Jerry Reese has a history of drafting for need (see Aaron Ross and Kenny Phillips) and the Giants’ most pressing need right now is middle linebacker. Reese also likes players that were productive in college (again, see Ross and Phillips) and there’s no question Spikes (307 career tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss) was productive while at Florida. Yes, Spikes would be a bit of a reach here but with the team’s signing of safety Antrel Rolle, I believe Reese will target and fill the Giants’ most pressing need.

16. Tennessee Titans: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
The Titans have a huge void at defensive end now that Kyle Vanden Bosch has signed with the Lions and Dunlap is the best defensive end on the board (although some would argue for Michigan’s Brandon Graham). The Titans’ pass defense struggled mightily in 2010, but part of that was because the team couldn’t generate an effective pass rush. After receiving a DUI before the Sugar Bowl this year, Dunlap’s character has been questioned. But there’s no denying his talent and if the Titans can look past his one big mistake, they could wind up with a great prospect with a high ceiling.

17. San Francisco 49ers: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
There’s a possibility that Spiller won’t fall this far and there’s also a chance that the Niners could grab him at No. 13 and fill their offensive tackle need with this pick. But in this mock, everything works out perfectly for San Fran as Spiller falls. The Clemson product is a dynamic playmaker and could be a great complement to Frank Gore. The Niners could use him in a variety of ways, including lining him up in the slot and taking advantage of his excellent pass-catching abilities. He has durability issues and therefore shouldn’t be counted on to be a primary back, but that wouldn’t be a problem for the Niners with Gore already on the roster. Plus, Spiller would finally give San Fran the threat in the return game that it has sorely needed for years.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
I realize this isn’t a very sexy pick, but the Steelers need a major upgrade on the interior of their offensive line. Right guard Trai Essex is as close to a disaster as you can get in both the run blocking and pass protection. In fact, there’s a good chance that as long as Iupati proves that he can chance his socks in the morning that the Steelers will trust him enough to start over Essex. While still a very raw prospect, Iupati has excellent size and has a huge frame with long arms. He’s an outstanding athlete with great mobility and explosion, and would immediately upgrade the Steelers’ run blocking.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Sean Witherspoon, LB, Missouri
A lot of people expect the Falcons to take a pass-rusher with this pick after they signed free agent Dunta Robinson to upgrade their secondary. But even though former first round pick Jamaal Anderson has been a massive bust, the Falcons really like youngsters Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury and believe they will develop. If that’s the case, then outside linebacker would move to the top of Atlanta’s needs. Mike Peterson won’t play forever and while he’s a steady player, Stephen Nicholas isn’t the game-changer the Falcons want alongside middle linebacker Curtis Lofton. Witherspoon, who is a fantastic athlete with great speed and burst, is the type of sideline-to-sideline playmaker that the Falcons covet. Other options at this spot are Sergio Kindle, Carlos Dunlap, Kyle Williams or even an offensive lineman.

20. Houston Texans: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Texans could go in a variety of directions here, including offensive line and running back. But for the last two years I’ve predicted that Houston would take a running back in round one, only to see the Texans make a mockery (no pun intended) of my picks for them. This year I’m not taking the bait on the possibility of them drafting a running back to split carries with Steve Slaton. That said, Jahvid Best is probably a freaking lock at this spot, but I digress. After losing Dunta Robinson to the Falcons via free agency, the Texans have a huge hole at cornerback and Williams’ stock rose dramatically during Senior Bowl week. He’s a flat out playmaker and while his size is a little concerning, he has the speed and athleticism to hopefully make the fans in Houston forget about Robinson.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Bengals entered the 2010 offseason with one mission: dramatically improve their dismal passing game. The signing of receiver Antonio Bryant confirms that Cincy is committed to upgrading its offense and the addition of Gresham in the first round would be another positive step in giving quarterback Carson Palmer more receiving weapons. After having surgery on his right knee, Gresham missed the entire 2009 season, which obviously sends up red flags to teams. But so far, he has been impressive in pre-draft workouts and all scouts have to do is pop on tape of his 2008 season to realize how much potential he has. He’s an excellent athlete with soft hands and uses his body well in space. He also has prototypical size (6’5”, 260 pounds), is a decent blocker and has a great work ethic.

22. New England Patriots: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
With Michigan’s Brandon Graham still on the board, the Patriots might take a chance on him becoming the next LaMarr Woodley. But Ordrick is a great fit for the 3-4 and while he’s an unspectacular player, he’s steady and shows a lot of potential. After losing Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green over the past year, New England is desperate to upgrade its pass-rush. Odrick does a great job getting off the ball quickly, although he struggles getting off blocks sometimes. He uses his hands well and can get up field quickly to crash the pocket but he’ll have to learn how to play with proper leverage at the next level. He’s not an elite prospect, but Belichick knows how to get the most out of his players and could certainly teach a hard worker such as Odrick.

23. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
The Packers could go in a variety of directions with this pick, including left tackle and cornerback. But none of the available offensive tackles (Vladimir Ducasse, Bruce Campbell, Charles Brown) are first round prospects and thus, Ted Thompson would be reaching by selecting one of them here. Florida State CB Patrick Robinson has a first round grade and would provide depth behind Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, but some teams are worried about his inconsistency and Thompson could find corners later in the draft. If they don’t trade down, Graham makes a ton of sense at this spot assuming he’s available. Despite my suggesting that he’s a weight lifter posing as football player, Clay Matthews turned out to be a great pick last year for the Pack. He gave Dom Capers an excellent pass rusher in his 3-4 scheme and Graham could be a solid complement to Matthews on the opposite side. Green Bay needs to find a replacement for Aaron Kampman (who wasn’t a great fit for the 3-4 anyway), and the hard-working Graham could help fill that void. He was arguably the most impressive player at this year’s Senior Bowl and while he doesn’t have the prototypical size that scouts look for, there’s no denying that he’s an all-around solid football player with good bulk and a non-stop motor.

24. Philadelphia Eagles: Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
For a team that made the playoffs last year, the Eagles have plenty of holes to fill before Week 1. They could stand to add depth or even a starter at several spots on their offensive line and they probably need to add another back at some point to complement “Shady” McCoy. Defensively, they needed a defensive end opposite Trent Cole, but they filled that void by acquiring Darryl Tapp from the Seahawks. Safety is another need area, but I think if Kindle is on the board than he would be more of a risk than a guy like Taylor Mays. There’s a good chance that Kindle (who is the best OLB prospect in the draft) won’t last this long, but if things break right for the Eagles, he would finally give Philly a playmaker that they desperately need from their linebacker position. Even with Cole and Tapp already on board, Kindle could give the Eagles another pass-rusher in their 4-3 scheme.

25. Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
After the Ravens filled their biggest need of the offseason by acquiring receiver Anquan Boldin, they can turn their attention to addressing voids on their defense. Adding another pass rusher would certainly be beneficial, but I think cornerback is another huge area that Baltimore will have to address. Dominique Foxworth and his big contract are entrenched at one corner spot, but Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb are coming off serious knee injuries and there’s not much depth behind them. Robinson is a raw prospect and he’s a bit of a risk given his inconsistency in college, but he’s a fantastic athlete with tremendous speed and agility. He might not be a prospect that the Ravens could start right away but then again, if Washington and Webb return to health then they wouldn’t need Robinson to anyway.

26. Arizona Cardinals: Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts
The Cardinals are in the midst of a major changing of the guard. Kurt Warner retired, Anquan Boldin was traded to Baltimore and Karlos Dansby moved on to greener pastures. Even though Ken Whisenhunt will keep the same offense intact, there’s no doubt that his philosophy will have to change. Matt Leinart isn’t a gunslinger and if he winds up beating out Derek Anderson for the starting quarterback job, then the Cards will become a run-first team with Beanie Wells being the focus. That said, look for them to upgrade their offensive tackle position with a prospect such as Ducasse or Maryland’s Bruce Campbell. They could also address their need for a pass rusher with this pick, but my money’s on them upgrading the offensive line seeing as how Wells is now their meal ticket.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Taylor Mays, S, USC
I’ve been conflicted on where Mays will wind up, but I think this is an appropriate spot for him. Some teams view him as a safety, others as an undersized linebacker. Some pundits still believe he could still be the elite prospect that he was before returning to USC his senior year, while others think he’s overrated. But after a great showing at the Senior Bowl and scouting combine, I think Jerry Jones will jump at the chance to add a high risk, high reward prospect such as Mays to upgrade his secondary.

28. San Diego Chargers: Jahvid Best, RB, Cal
Normally when things look too good to be true when it comes to matching players up with certain teams, it usually is. But in the case of Best and the Chargers, I can’t resist pairing these two together. The Bolts are desperate for running back help and they need a complement to Darren Sproles now that LaDainian Tomlinson is off to New York. Best is a phenomenal athlete and up until he suffered a freak injury at the tale end of the 2009 season, he was on pace to challenge for the Heisman. Considering he went to Cal, this seems like the perfect fit but then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if San Diego took a long look at Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews either.

29. New York Jets: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
Assuming the Jets don’t work out a deal for Brandon Marshall (don’t rule that possibility out), then they need to give Mark Sanchez more receiving weapons. Tate is undersized, but he can stretch the field and has outstanding athleticism. He has speed to create separation and he’s excellent in the open field. He struggles at getting off the line, which is a concern when you think about other great college wideouts like Ted Ginn Jr. But Tate would bring a lot to the Jets in terms of play making potential.

30. Minnesota Vikings: Dan Williams, DT Tennessee
The Vikings could go a couple of different ways here, including cornerback and maybe even quarterback. But Pat Williams is 37 years old and eventually Minnesota will have to replace him. Who better than someone with the same last name and that could be a massive force in the middle of their defensive line for years to come?

31. Indianapolis Colts: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
GM Bill Polian was publicly critical of the Colts’ offensive line play after the Super Bowl and now that Tony Ugoh has turned out to be a massive disappointment, there’s a good chance Indy will address its tackle need here. Campbell is a raw prospect, but he has outstanding size (6’6”, 314) and could benefit from being coached by an outstanding staff.

32. New Orleans Saints: Everson Griffin, DE, USC
After cutting Charles Grant in the offseason, the Saints could stand to upgrade their defensive end position. Griffen offers a ton of upside and has an excellent array of both size and speed. I could see the Saints also addressing their outside linebacker need with someone like Daryl Washington of TCU.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

I’m going to channel my inner Peter King and dole out a crap load of quick-hit thoughts on last weekend’s NFL draft, which by the way, was one of the more unpredictable drafts I have ever witnessed.

Below are 65 observations from the 2009 NFL Draft. Why 65? I don’t know – don’t worry about it. Originally I came up with 62, but I know that some people freak out when things aren’t in round numbers, so I added three more. But the number 65 means nothing, so don’t waste time searching for its meaning.

Obviously these are all my opinions and feel free to debate them. But before you do, I already know that it supposedly takes three seasons to fully grade a draft and that no prospect is a sure thing. Again, I’m projecting here – so lighten up and let’s strike up some good debates.

1. Outside of the fact that he’s now a millionaire and could buy a small country, I kind of feel bad for Matthew Stafford. You know some halfwit fan or media member can’t wait to utter the comment, “For $72 million, he should have made that pass.” I hate the fact that money plays such a huge role in sports because when you get down to it, completing a pass, making a catch or kicking a field goal has nothing to do with how many zeros are on your paycheck.

2. I know I’m not saying anything new here, but the rookie salary structure is a joke. When teams don’t even want a top 5 pick anymore because of the financial burden that comes with it, there’s a huge problem.

3. The kid could turn out to be the next Ryan Leaf on the field, but Lion fans have to at least take comfort in the fact that Matthew Stafford is saying all the right things at this point. He did an interview with the NFL Network on Sunday and he talked about how he wants to be a starter right away, but also wants to learn and be patient in his development. From all accounts, he looks like he has a great head on his shoulders.

4. If Tyson Jackson turns out to be the next Richard Seymour like Chiefs’ GM Scott Pioli believes, then nobody is going to remember (or care) that he was taken with the third overall pick in a weak draft class.

5. Out of all the prospects to come out of this draft class, I’m going to find myself rooting the hardest for Aaron Curry. It was incredibly heartwarming to see him bring a 12-year old leukemia survivor to the draft and it was touching to see how emotionally happy he was on the stage after his name was announced. You can tell that the young man takes nothing for granted in life.

6. Jet fans are excited that they have a quarterback for the future, as well they should be. But I can’t help but think about how if Mark Sanchez had waited to come out next year, there’s a good chance he would be the third quarterback taken behind Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Yet he was a top 5 pick in this year’s draft and the Jets had to trade two high picks and three players in order to select him. Yikes.

7. I absolutely loved what Cleveland did in the first round. They not only saved a truck load of money by trading out of the top 5, but they also didn’t reach for a prospect just to fill a need and acquired a ton of picks by continuously trading down.

8. I loved all of Cleveland’s wheeling and dealing in the first round, but not as much as I loved the acquisition of safety Abram Elam as part of the deal for the No. 5 pick. He is one of the most underrated players in the league and he obviously is a fit for Eric Mangini’s defensive scheme. Besides having the desire to get out of the top 5, Elam was the key component to that entire trade for the Browns.

9. Some may hammer the Browns for taking a center in the first round, but many considered Alex Mack the type of prospect that could change the way teams draft the position in the future. Plus, you have to love how Cleveland continues to upgrade the most important unit on the football field: the offensive line.

10. The Bengals never learn do they? Andre Smith is incredibly talented but he carries more baggage with him than a 787.

11. Darrius Heyward-Bey could turn out to be a solid deep threat in the NFL, but Michael Crabtree has the potential to be one of the best receivers in the game for a very long time. Not that he cares, but Al Davis is nuts for passing on the talented Texas Tech product.

12. Speaking of Crabtree, one of the potential reasons of why he fell as far as he did could be because of his attitude. Cleveland was apparently turned off by his “diva” persona during a pre-draft visit, but if there is any person that can humble the young man, it’s 49ers’ head coach Mike Singletary.

13. The Jaguars did incredibly well in the first two rounds. It wasn’t a flashy draft, but how often does a team land two starting-caliber offensive tackles in their first two picks? This was a team crippled by injuries along the O-line last season, so adding Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton was fantastic. (Somewhere, Maurice Jones-Drew is smiling.)

14. I’ve hammered the Packers for much of the offseason because of the lack of attention paid to filling needs in their new 3-4 defense. But GM Ted Thompson came through at No. 9 with the selection of B.J. Raji, who could play end this year and then nose next year if the team decides not to bring back Ryan Pickett, who becomes a free agent after this season.

15. I was surprised the Bills passed on offensive tackle Michael Oher at No. 11, but teams were worried about his ability to grasp an offense at the next level so at least Buffalo addressed its need for a pass rusher in Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin.

16. Should anyone really be surprised that new Broncos’ head coach Josh McDaniels went offense at No. 12?

17. Speaking of that pick, Knowshon Moreno has the best vision of any running back taken in this draft. He’s a stud and should do well in Denver.

18. Washington got one of the steals of the first round when Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo fell to them at No. 13. He was an absolute force against Oklahoma and Texas Tech last year and should be motivated after falling out of the top 10.

19. I know he had a brutal showing at the NFL scouting combine, but trust me – Malcolm Jenkins can play. He was highly productive at Ohio State and was less of a risk than fellow cornerback prospect Vontae Davis, even though Davis has the superior athletic skills. (More on Davis later.)

20. You have to hand it to the Texans. This was the second year in a row that some believed Houston would address the running back position in the first round, but they continued to build their defense with the selection of linebacker Brian Cushing. Maybe 2009 will finally be the year this team makes a playoff run.

21. Larry English might not be an every down player at the next level, but what a pick by the Chargers. They really didn’t have a ton of needs to address and English was a monster in the MAC last year. The Bolts will find ways to get him on the field and don’t be surprised if he piles up 7-10 sacks next year.

22. I have several issues with the Bucs’ decision to draft Josh Freeman in the first round. First and foremost, in a better quarterback class, he might be a second or even third rounder given how raw he is as a prospect. Secondly, why the hell did Tampa trade up to get him? Did they really think Denver was going to take him at No. 18 with so many holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball?

23. Weren’t Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen ridiculed and essentially (in part) ushered out of Tampa for concentrating too much on the quarterback position? Yet, the new regime of Raheem Morris and Mark Dominik have already re-signed Luke McCown, signed free agent Byron Leftwich and drafted Josh Freeman. And oh-by-the-way, they still have Brian Griese and Josh Johnson on the roster. I have no idea what Morris and Dominik are doing in terms of a game plan to rebuild the Bucs.

24. Isn’t Jeremy Maclin essentially the same receiver as DeSean Jackson? I’m surprised the Eagles didn’t add a bigger complement to Jackson if they were focused on drafting a receiver in the early rounds.

25. It’s easy to slam Detroit’s selection of Brandon Pettigrew at No. 20, but what is always considered a young quarterback’s best friend? A tight end – and Pettigrew is one of the better tight end prospects to come out in some time.

26. That said, how did the Lions not address their middle linebacker need with the No. 20 pick? Rey Maualuga was there for the taking and he would have filled a bigger need than Pettigrew. Jordon Dizon is your middle linebacker, Lions? Seriously?

27. One more note on the Lions drafting Pettigrew; tight end is also viewed as an extension of the O-line, which was a major need for Detroit coming into the draft. For better or worse, Pettigrew was essentially Martin Mayhew’s answer in addressing that need.

28. I was shocked that the Vikings selected Percy Harvin at No. 22 – not because they didn’t need a receiver, but because it was reported that Brad Childress had removed all prospects with poor character from his draft board. This was just another example of how you can’t believe everything reported before the draft.

29. Baltimore got a first round steal in offensive tackle Michael Oher. As previously noted, some teams were worried about whether or not Oher could grasp a pro offense, but at No. 23, he was worth the risk.

30. Peria Jerry fits a major need for the Falcons – or does he? Scouts believe he’s an under tackle at the next level and Atlanta already has a productive player at that position in Jonathan Babineaux. Obviously Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith feel as though Jerry can play the nose and after the draft those two compiled last year, I trust their judgment.

31. Vontae Davis doesn’t really seem like a Bill Parcells-type does he? Regardless, he’s loaded with talent and if he can keep his emotions and attitude in check, he could turn out be a solid corner.

32. My coworker John Paulsen and I are going to do more on this topic soon (so check back), but I thought the Packers’ deal with the Patriots at No. 26 was the worst trade of the first round. Green Bay filled a huge need with the selection of outside linebacker Clay Matthews, but they gave up a second round pick and two third rounders in doing so. Considering Matthews might be one of the more overrated prospects in the draft, I was shocked that GM Ted Thompson would give up so much for that pick.

33. It’ll be interesting to see which receiver taken in the bottom of the first round (Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt) goes on to have the more productive career. They both have great hands, above-average speed and will play for decent offenses in New York (Giants) and Tennessee, respectively.

34. How did Chris “Beanie” Wells fall all the way to No. 31? I know there are injury concerns, but he had the best blend of size, speed and strength of any running back prospect in the draft and Arizona might have gotten a steal.

35. Some have compared Western Michigan safety Louis Delmas to Bob Sanders. Too bad Delmas might rot in Detroit.

36. Far be it for me to question Bill Belichick on draft day, but Patrick Chung at No. 34 in the second round? That’s freaking high.

37. Ohio State prospect prediction #1: Linebacker James Laurinaitis will struggle finding a position in the pros.

38. Ohio State prospect prediction #2: Brian Robiskie is going to flourish as a quality possession receiver in the NFL.

39. I love Alphonso Smith and think he could turn out to be a solid corner, but why would the Broncos give up a first round pick in 2010 to trade up in the second round of a weak draft?

40. As long as I’m crapping on the Broncos, did anyone tell Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders that teams are usually more successful when they trade down, not up? Every time they announced a trade, it was usually Denver moving up. I don’t necessarily dislike the prospects they wound up with, but their approach in this draft was bizarre.

41. Whose mother did Rey Maualuga punch for him to fall all the way to No. 38? Nice pick, Bengals.

42. Whose baby did Duke Robinson punch for him to slip all the way into the fifth round? How the hell does a first-round talent drop to the No. 163 overall pick? Nice value, Carolina.

43. Before the draft, word was that the Patriots were absolutely in love with Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 23. After completely trading out of the first round, New England snagged Butler with the No. 41 overall pick in the second round. That’s the genius of Bill Belichick on draft day.

44. See No. 38, but replace the name Alphonso Smith with Everrette Brown, and the word Broncos with Panthers.

45. What better team for Pat White to go to than the one that founded the “Wildcat” formation last season?

46. I have no idea how he fits into an already stacked Giants’ linebacker corps, but I love their pick of Virginia’s Clint Sintim at No. 45. The guy was a monster in college.

47. I think it was hilarious that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay bashed the Raiders’ selection of Michael Mitchell with the No. 47 pick in the second round (they said they could have gotten him much later), yet the Bears were reportedly ready to take him at No. 49. If Mitchell was good enough for Jerry Angelo in the second round (I said second, not first – Lord knows Angelo can’t judge talent in the first), then chances are he’s a better prospect than Kiper and McShay thought he was.

48. The Eagles took two boom or bust picks in Jeremy Maclin and “Shaddy” McCoy in the first two rounds, but there’s no question they added some athletic talent with each of the selections.

49. I don’t care what anyone says – William Moore (Falcons) was the steal of the second round. I know he had a bad senior year, but he was nicked up and had he come out after his junior season, he would have been a top 15 pick.

50. I still prefer NFL Network’s coverage to ESPN’s, but Marshall Faulk and Jamie Dukes continue to bring nothing to the table. And what was with the on-going camera trick where they kept making everyone’s heads look bigger? It was funny once, but by the fourth time enough was enough.

51. Penn State wideout Derrick Williams (Lions’ third round pick) could turn out to be the next great kick returner in the NFL.

52. Arizona might have found a gem in the third round in Alabama safety Rashad Johnson. He’s not a thumper, but some have compared him to a poor man’s Ed Reed.

53. If Wisconsin’s Travis Beckum (Giants’ third round pick) could ever stay healthy, he could have a nice career as a pass-catching tight end.

54. The Bears got the steal of the fourth round in Vandy cornerback D.J. Moore. The only reason why he dropped so far was because of his lack of size (he’s only 5’8”). If he were two inches taller, he would have probably been a second rounder. Yet another mid-round gem by GM Jerry Angelo.

55. Speaking of mid-round Jerry Angelo gems, throw Ohio State outside linebacker Marcus Freeman and Abilene Christian wideout Johnny Knox into that group, too.

56. Atlanta had a really solid second day. Quarterbacks mostly stayed away of cornerback Chris Owens (third round) at San Jose State last year and Lawrence Sidbury (forth round) of Richmond could turn out to be a solid pass rusher. All in all, the Falcons filled needs and got a ton of defensive help throughout the draft.

57. I hate to crap on any prospect, because clearly they have more talent than I do, but I think Seattle wasted their sixth round pick on Rutgers’ quarterback Mike Teel. He has good arm strength, but he really struggles in his decision making I doubt he’s long for the NFL. But still – good luck, Mike!

58. I know I hammered Packers’ GM Ted Thompson for his first round trade at No. 31 on this list, but he really did put together a solid draft. Georgia defensive end Jarius Wynn was a nice find in the sixth round.

59. Someone explain to me how Fresno State tight end Bear Pascoe is not on his way to Chicago right now.

60. Your 2009 Marques Colston Seventh Round Sleeper Award goes to: Rutgers’ wide receiver Tiguan Underwood (Jaguars).

61. I know teams are always enamored with size and arm strength when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but how do guys like Mike Teel and Tom Brandstater get selected before Graham Harrell? I know Harrell had grossly inflated numbers because he played in Texas Tech’s offensive system, but I still can’t believe that no team took a flier on him in the seventh round, yet Bradstater and Teel go in the sixth.

62. After not selecting a running back the entire draft, keep an eye on the Texans’ interest in Edgerrin James if/when he is released by the Cardinals.

63. After not selecting a pass-rusher in the entire draft, keep an eye on the Patriots’ interest in free agent defensive end Jason Taylor.

64. One has to wonder what Anquan Boldin’s fate is after the Giants and Titans each drafted first round receivers. Are the Ravens still a possibility? And would Arizona be willing to scale back their trade demands?

65. Quote of the NFL draft weekend: “How fitting is it that this year’s Mr. Irreverent is a kicker!” – Rich Eisen, NFL Network.

Other 2009 NFL Draft Coverage:

NFL Draft: 5 Second Day Steals
NFL Draft: 5 First Round Values
NFL Draft: 5 Questionable Day 1 Decisions
NFL Draft: 5 Day 1 Winners
Official 2009 NFL Draft Post & Rumor Mill

As the NFL draft rolls on over the next two days, I’ll post picks, thoughts and stay on top of any rumors that I hear and post them here. Enjoy.

2:55PM ET: Mike Mayock of the NFL Network claims that his “cell phone is blowing up” with reports that the Jets are trying to trade up to No. 2 for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.

3:19PM ET: According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Dolphins will select Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 25.

3:22PM ET: The Rams could trade back into the first round for middle linebacker Rey Maualuga according to NFL Network’s Steve Wyche.

3:38PM ET: I’m shocked the Chiefs passed on Aaron Curry, but all the pre-draft rumors that said Tyson Jackson would be their pick were obviously dead on. Jackson is the best 3-4 end in the draft and obvious was a commodity.

3:40PM ET: The Browns got exactly what they wanted with this trade. They weren’t in love with anyone at No.5 and managed to trade out. Great move – I wonder what kind of ransom the Browns got.

3:42PM ET: Mike Mayock just made a great point about the Jets trading up to No. 5. What team did they want to get ahead of to go all the way up to No. 5?

3:45PM ET: DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, S Abram Elam No. 17 and No. 57. A sleeper in this deal is Elam, who is one of the more promising safeties in the draft.

3:52PM ET: The Bengals select OT Andre Smith – another low character guy for their low-character roster. He is a tremendous talent, but he comes with a ton of baggage.

3:53PM ET: Mayock speculates that the Raiders will take a receiver, but not Michael Crabtree. In his last mock, he had them taking Darrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland, which would be quite a shock. I can’t see Oakland passing on Crabtree at No. 7, but a sleeper could be OT Eugene Monroe.

4:21PM ET: Crabtree goes to the 49ers. Although word is that he turned teams off with his “diva” attitude, it’s amazing that this kid fell so far. He’s one of the best prospects in this draft and the Niners got a steal. He fits a need and he was the best player left on the board – great pick.

4:28PM ET: Bills select Aaron Maybin. This was a bit of a surprise considering the Bills’ need for an offensive tackle and Michael Oher is still on the board. But before they traded Jason Peters to the Eagles, pass rush was a major need and Maybin feels that need. He was one of the best pass-rushers in college football last year and while he could stand to add a little bulk to his frame, he could turn out to be terrific off the edge.

4:32PM ET: Broncos select Knowshon Moreno. This is a bit of a surprise considering Denver is switching to a 3-4 defense and they have needs to fill in the front seven. But Josh McDaniels is an offensive guy first and foremost, and Moreno is a stud. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he arguably has the best vision of any back in the draft and should do well in Denver.

4:39PM ET: Redskins select Brian Orakpo. This is another guy that fell. Orakpo was once considering a top 5 pick and he slid all the way to Washington at No. 13, who had a major need at defensive end after releasing Jason Taylor. Some say Orakpo played down to his competition at times, but anyone that saw his effort against Oklahoma and Texas Tech came away impressed.

4:47PM ET: Saints select Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins had a brutal showing at the scouting combine, but his body of work at Ohio State was impressive. I’m a little surprised that the Saints didn’t address their linebacker position here, but after cutting Mike McKenzie, they had an obvious need at cornerback and Jenkins is less of a risk than Vontae Davis, who some believe is a risk given his attitude.

4:50PM ET: Texans select Brian Cushing. The Texans continue to upgrade their defense with the selection of Cushing, who was the best outside linebacker prospect in the draft after Aaron Curry. The knock on Cushing is that he might be more of a bodybuilder than a football player, but I’d say that more fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews.

4:55PM ET: Chargers select Larry English. This is a bit of a surprise and it’s no knock on English. With Rey Maualuga on the board, I’m surprised they went English, but at least he’s a fit for the 3-4. English was one of the best players in the MAC and he was a force as a pass-rusher. The Bolts didn’t have a ton of holes to fill, so maybe English was the top player left on their board and they took him.

4:59PM ET: Browns trade the 17th pick to the Bucs for the 19th and the 191st. What a great day for the Browns in terms of value. They’re probably still going to address a need and they keep acquiring more picks.

5:01PM ET: Bucs select Josh Freeman. I could look like an absolute idiot (nothing new) in a few years, but I think this is an awful pick. If this weren’t a weak QB class, there’s no way Freeman would have been taken in the first round. He has a ton of talent and he’s a good kid, but he’s incredibly raw and I think he’s going to have time reading NFL defenses. Again, hammer me if you think I’m wrong. But the Bucs are jam packed at quarterback and one could argue they don’t have a quality starter among them.

5:11PM ET: Eagles select Jeremy Maclin. The Browns once again traded back, this time with the Eagles, who added a dynamic playmaker in Maclin. I’m a bit surprised that they would trade up. Who were they worried about getting ahead of? The Lions? Doesn’t make much sense.

5:26PM ET: Lions select Brandon Pettigrew. I don’t get it – I really don’t. The Lions have needs at offensive tackle and middle linebacker, both Michael Oher and Rey Maulauga are on the board, and they take a tight end. The only way I can spin this pick is that dome teams tend to struggle defensively (they rarely rank in the top 10 defensively at years end). So Martin Mayhew addresses the offense first and foremost and gives Stafford a nice target in the passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson.

5:41PM ET: Browns select Alex Mack. This was a bit of a surprise because of what the Browns need, but Mack is a great prospect. He’s the best center in the draft and obviously Cleveland felt that they could nab one of the best players available at No. 21 and fill their linebacker need later with one of their many second round picks. This was a surprise (and maybe a reach?) with Everrette Brown still on the board, but the Browns still got a quality prospect.

5:50PM ET: Vikings select Percy Harvin. Speculation had it that the Vikings would take a receiver at this spot, although I’m a little surprised that they took Harvin despite rumors that said they had removed all prospects who had poor character. Regardless, Harvin has loads of potential and could be explosive opposite Bernard Berrian in the Vikings’ offense.

6:06PM ET: Ravens select Michael Oher. No surprise – the Patriots traded down in a draft. Oher is a fantastic value at this spot and fills a need for the Ravens. I’m shocked he lasted this long and I think Baltimore got a steal.

6:10PM ET: Falcons select Peria Jerry. The Falcons definitely addressed a need and Jerry is a tremendous value at this pick, but he’s projected as an under tackle and Atlanta desperately needs a nose. Jerry is essentially the same player as Jonathan Babineaux, who just received a new contract extension for his productive play. Still, maybe Mike Smith wants to use a smaller defensive line and go with more stunts next year. If Trey Lewis returns to full health next season, then Jerry fits in well and could give the Falcons another pass rusher along with John Abraham.

6:27PM ET: Dolphins select Vontae Davis. I love it. Davis’s attitude has been questioned in the past, but obviously Bill Parcells isn’t concerned is too upset about it. Davis has tremendous athleticism and could turn out to be a steal this late in the draft. Then again, he could be nothing more than an athletic marvel that gets abused by NFL receivers because he’s too aggressive. I trust Parcells’ judgment.

6:37PM ET: Packers trade their 2nd round pick and two 3rd rounders to New England in order to select Clay Matthews. This was, bar none, the worst trade of the day so far. The Packers did fill a need at outside linebacker, but the Patriots fleeced them for what could turn out to be a very overrated prospect in Matthews. This trade was mind-boggling and Ted Thompson should feel abused.

6:41PM ET: Quick question – did teams forget that USC linebacker Rey Maualuga is still on the board?

6:42PM ET: Colts select Donald Brown. Sucka what? This pick makes no sense. With Evander Hood and Ron Brace still on the board, I’m shocked the Colts went offense – more specifically, a running back. They have Joseph Addai and also took Michael Hart in the sixth round a year ago. Brown is a solid prospect, but I’m shocked the Colts went running back with their first pick with needs on defense.

6:49PM ET: Bills select Eric Wood. I’m a little surprised that with a need for offensive tackle, the Bills didn’t go with Eben Britton. But some felt as though Wood would get selected ahead of Alex Mack, so obviously the kid has a ton of talent. I’ll be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t take an OT in the second round.

7:06PM ET: Giants select Hakeem Nicks. No real surprise here. Since the G-Men couldn’t acquire Braylon Edwards from the Browns, they had an obvious need for a receiver and Nicks is one of the better route runners in the draft.

7:09PM ET: Titans select Kenny Britt. Just as I wrote for the Giants – no real surprise here. Tennessee was rumored to be interested in trading for Anquan Boldin, so obviously they wanted to address the wideout position, even though they signed Nate Washington this offseason. Britt is a nice big target and although he doesn’t have a ton of speed, he’s a great blocker and isn’t afraid to go over the middle.

7:23PM ET: Cardinals select Chris “Beanie” Wells. It’s surprising that a talented back like this fell this far, but the Cardinals got a steal. He’s similar to Tim Hightower in that he’s a bigger back, but Wells has more speed and Arizona now has a replacement for Edgerrin James, who will get his wish and be released soon.

7:26PM ET: Steelers select Evander Hood. If Hood can be a 3-4 nose, then this was a solid pick. The Steelers didn’t have a ton of needs obviously, so they take one of the best players on the board and add to their already stout defense.

This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.

I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)

The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!

Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0 and Mock Draft Version 2.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Word is that the Lions aren’t completely sold on Stafford, which is why they have started contract negotiations with not only his agent, but also the representatives of Jason Smith and Aaron Curry. Considering how many holes the Lions have, it’s ludicrous for them to take a QB that they’re not 100% convinced can be their leader under center for years to come. But when has Detroit ever done anything that made sense? Matt Millen is nowhere near Allen Park these days, yet the general feeling is that the Lions are still going to screw up this pick. For the record, I think Curry should be their pick. He’s the best player in the draft, he fills a major need, would be cheaper to sign than either Stafford or Smith and linebacker is usually a safer pick in the first round. But what I think Detroit should do, and what I think they will do are two different things, which is why Stafford’s name is penciled in above.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If the Lions select Smith at No. 1, then the Rams could go one of four ways. They could take the next best offensive tackle in Eugene Monroe, they could get their quarterback of the future in Matthew Stafford, they could fill their need for a No. 1 receiver and take Michael Crabtree, or they could go with the best defensive player in the draft and select Aaron Curry. Curry seems like the most likely choice, but again, any one of the prospects mentioned are viable options. If the Lions do pass on Smith, then he seems like a slam-dunk for the Rams, who are rumored to prefer him to Monroe. With Orlando Pace now in Chicago, St. Louis needs to address the gaping hole at left tackle and the athletic Smith would seemingly be a great fit.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
There’s a chance Curry might not fall to this spot and there’s an even bigger chance that the Chiefs will go with an offensive tackle to help protect new quarterback Matt Cassel. But chances are Curry will be available here and considering KC is making a switch to a new 3-4 defensive alignment, he would be a great fit. New GM Scott Pioli traded for Mike Vrabel and signed veteran free agent Zach Thomas this offseason, so obviously he’s making the linebacker position a priority. Pair Curry opposite Derrick Johnson and the Chiefs will have a nice set of young, athletic linebackers.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
There is a ton of speculation that the Seahawks will select USC quarterback Mark Sanchez here, which certainly would make sense. Matt Hasselbeck is 33 years old, is coming off an injury-plagued season and Seattle isn’t currently developing a young backup behind him (which is where Sanchez would come in). But with general manager Tim Ruskell recently saying that Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” it’s hard to believe that Sanchez would be their pick here. Granted, Sanchez could still be viewed as a potential successor even if Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” but it still seems far-fetched for Seattle to go that route with this pick. The bottom line is that even though the Hawks are coming off a disastrous year, they can easily rebound in a weak NFC West and they seem to still be in “win now” mode. Seattle wants right tackle Sean Locklear to eventually be Walter Jones’ successor on the left side, so Monroe could play guard until one of the tackle spots open up.

5. Cleveland Browns: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Earlier this week I went into detail about why I believe Sanchez will be the Browns’ pick at No. 5, which you can read here. But the long and short of it is that I fully believe that Cleveland will trade either quarterback Brady Quinn or wide receiver Braylon Edwards by the end of draft weekend, and therefore decided between either Sanchez or wideout Michael Crabtree at No. 5. And actually, I think the Browns will trade both Quinn and Edwards by the end of draft weekend, select Sanchez at No. 5 and then fill their wide receiver need later in the draft. If I’m wrong about all of these trade scenarios, then top defenders Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji and Everrette Brown are all possibilities at this spot as well.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
The Bengals would love to replace former first round bust Levi Jones at left tackle, but what prospect will they go with? Some believe Oher would be a reach here and that Alabama’s Andre Smith would be a better fit for Cincy’s desire to fill its roster with questionable characters. But something tells me Mike Brown will go with the safer choice in Oher, whose draft stock has risen of late. He has great size, athleticism and comes with less baggage than Smith, who has tremendous talent, but has also had his weight, work ethic and motivation questioned in the past. Either way, unless they surprise and address another need such as running back, the Bengals will probably go with an offensive tackle at this spot.

7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Even though the Raiders have needs on the offensive and defensive lines, Crabtree might be too good to pass up here. There are concerns about his health after he had foot surgery following the college season, but there’s no doubt Crabtree is a gamer and he fills Oakland’s need to give quarterback JaMarcus Russell a true go-to receiver. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders select one of the top offensive tackles here or a defensive end like Brian Orakpo. But again if Crabtree falls, I highly doubt Al Davis will pass.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Considering Dennis Northcutt and Troy Williamson are the projected starters at receiver next season, there’s no doubt that the Jags need to address their gaping hole at wideout. But will it be with this pick? Maybe, especially if Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin are available, but don’t forget that head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive-minded guy and that Jacksonville has always been known for its defense. The Jags traded Marcus Stroud to Buffalo last offseason because they felt Rob Meier could be as productive as a starter as he was in a three-man rotation in previous years. But he wasn’t, and Jacksonville’s defense struggled generating pressure from the interior. If Raji falls, he would be an excellent addition to the defensive line and he would surely benefit from playing alongside big John Henderson. Again, receiver is the top need for this team and nobody would be surprised if Jacksonville filled that hole with this pick. But Raji might be too good to pass up at this spot.

9. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Packers have been quiet so far in free agency, which is surprising considering they’re switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme next year and don’t have 3-4 personnel currently on the roster. If B.J. Raji falls, I could definitely see Green Bay selecting him to use in a rotation at all three defensive line spots next season and eventually replacing Ryan Pickett (who is a free agent after the 2009 season) at nose tackle. But with the Jaguars stealing Raji a pick earlier, Jackson isn’t a bad fallback. Jackson isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run and he’s big enough to play end in a 3-4, which is a major need for the Packers. Another option for GB here would be to go with either Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown and plug them into the outside linebacker position opposite Aaron Kampman. But the Pack are awfully thin along the defensive line and Jackson would be a solid, albeit unspectacular, addition.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
The 49ers have a nice group of young linebackers, which includes Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. But the team is hurting for pass rushers and could use an outside linebacker that can provide a solid rush off the edge and get pressure on the quarterback. The knock on Orakpo is that he can play down to his competition, but there’s no doubt he wreaked havoc in the opponents’ backfields last season, most notably against Big 12 rivals Texas Tech and Oklahoma. He’s athletic enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 and under the guidance of Mike Singletary, he could turn out to be a productive player at the next level.

11. Buffalo Bills: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Bills need a pass rusher, which is why prospects like Everrette Brown and Aaron Maybin are major possibilities at this pick, but the Jason Peters trade changed everything. Now the top need is offensive tackle and although Smith comes with major baggage, there’s no denying that he has tremendous talent. The team took a chance by signing a dynamic personality in Terrell Owens this offseason, so they might be to a point now where talent supersedes all else. If Michael Oher falls, the Bills could look at him (regardless of whether or not Smith is still on the board) as well, but the overall feeling is that Buffalo will go with either an offensive tackle or a pass rusher at this spot.

12. Denver Broncos: Everrette Brown, OLB/DE, Florida State
Denver would love it if defensive tackle B.J. Raji fell to this spot so that they could plug him in at nose tackle in their new 3-4 defensive alignment, but it’s doubtful that he slips out of the top 10. The Broncos need a defender that can provide a decent rush off the edge and generate pressure on the quarterback. Brown was a force at Florida State and while there are some concerns about his lack of size, he should be able to transform into an outside linebacker in Denver’s 3-4 scheme, or play with his hand in the dirt as an end when the team goes with a 4-3 front. Brown’s stock has fallen has the draft nears, so the Broncos might look at Aaron Maybin from Penn State here, too.

13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
If either Andre Smith or Michael Oher falls to this spot, I could see the Skins selecting one of them. But with both off the board in this mock, it’s hard to see them reaching for Eben Britton, who would be the next highest offensive tackle in this draft. This is one of the more difficult teams to figure out because if Daniel Snyder is in love with a prospect like Mark Sanchez or Aaron Curry, I could see him trading up. I could also see the Skins trading down and then selecting Britton or one of the top defensive ends later on. But if we’re playing this mock straight up, then I say Washington bypasses smaller defensive end prospects like Aaron Maybin and Larry English, and goes with the big-bodied Ayers, who has good size, is a reliable tackler and plays with a chip on his shoulder. The only thing is, he would be a reach here and if LSU’s Tyson Jackson falls, I could see the Skins preferring him to Ayers. Keep an eye on USC linebacker Rey Maualuga at this pick, too.

14. New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Some pundits think that the Saints will take a running back like Beanie Wells at this spot following the release of veteran Deuce McAllister this offseason. But with only one pick in the first three rounds, if the Saints stay here (as in, they don’t trade down in order to acquire more picks) then they’ll go defense. (Plus, they also have a highly productive Pierre Thomas waiting for a more extended role in the offense.) New Orleans’ most pressing defensive need is at outside linebacker, where Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are quality starters, but neither of them makes a huge impact and both will turn 30 this year. Some feel as though Cushing is nothing more than a bodybuilder who posses as a football player, but that description better fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews. Outside of having some durability concerns, Cushing is a solid tackler, flashes good athleticism and has decent range. He would be a solid pick for the Saints at this spot.

15. Houston Texans: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Houston has bigger needs than running back, most notably at cornerback, defensive tackle and outside linebacker. But Wells might be too good to pass up at this spot and pair with speed back Steve Slaton. Wells has the best combination of size and speed of any back in the draft and could be one of the better picks of this year’s draft. Of course, many pundits thought that the Texans would draft a running back last year and they traded down and took offensive tackle Duane Brown.

16. San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Chargers are one of the toughest teams to predict in the first round. Their biggest needs are arguably at defensive end now that Igor Olshansky signed with Dallas, a right tackle to uproot Jeromey Clary, and a future running back to supplant LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. But if they’re taking the best player available at this spot, then it’s Maualuga, who could turn out to be a tremendous two-down linebacker at the next level. If LSU’s Tyson Jackson or Tennessee’s Robert Ayers fall (which are decent possibilities), then the Bolts could go with one of them, or a surprise like Missouri DT Evander Hood. Trading down is also a major possibility, too.

17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
New head coach Rex Ryan has done a nice job upgrading the defense this offseason with the additions of linebacker Bart Scott and cornerback Lito Sheppard. While the Jets could still stand to upgrade the defensive end position, wide receiver remains their most pressing need and Heyward-Bey would give them a player who has great size, speed and that can stretch the field in the vertical passing game.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Reach! Reach! REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! I know – this is a massive reach. I don’t really believe the Broncos would stay at this spot if they value Brace, which they might given their need for a 3-4 nose tackle. But since I’m not predicting any trades, I’ll pencil Brace into this spot but assume Denver is going to get him later in the draft after trading back. REEAAAAACCH!

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Bucs are moving away from the “Tampa 2” scheme under new head coach Raheem Morris and they need another pass-rushing threat opposite Gaines Adams on the defensive line. If Maybin falls to this spot, he would give Tampa a nice edge rusher and could provide pressure on the quarterback. He would also inject some youth at the position, with Kevin Carter set to turn 36 this year. Adding an interior lineman such as Peria Jerry, Evander Hood or Ron Brace is an option as well.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Davis might not fall this far and the Lions could certainly look to address their need at offensive tackle with a player like Eben Britton. But Davis is the top cornerback prospect in the draft and he would fill an immediate need for Detroit. Some have questioned Davis’s character because he reportedly got into spats with the coaching staff at Illinois, but he’s an athletic marvel and could turn out to be a great pick if he stays motivated and keeps his head on straight.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
After trading for left tackle Jason Peters, the Eagles could go a variety of ways with this pick. Tight end remains a need and that means Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew is an option. Outside linebacker is also an area of concern with Omar Gaither losing his starting job to second-year undrafted player Akeem Jordan at the end of last year. But ultimately, Brian Westbrook turns 30 this year, is always an injury risk and Correll Buckhalter signed with Denver. The Eagles could trade out of his spot and still land a productive running back later on, but Moreno is one of the more underrated prospects in this entire draft. He doesn’t posses elite speed, but his vision is outstanding and some at Georgia have compared him to Hershel Walker.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Some might look at this pick and scoff considering the Vikings have two of the best defensive tackles in the league in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. But they’re not necessarily deep at the position and Pat Williams is 36 and coming off injury. Jerry would also give them a nice interior pass-rusher and would certainly be a solid addition if Pat and Kevin are suspended for the start of the season for violating the league substance abuse policy last year. I could also see the Vikes selecting a possession receiver like Hakeem Nicks and a center like Alex Mack to fill the void left by Matt Birk.

23. New England Patriots: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Several media outlets (including Don Banks of SI.com) say that Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler is a lock to go to New England at this pick. Which is exactly why I’m going with Jenkins. Every time a player is a “lock” to go to a team past the top 10, it’s usually wrong and I don’t trust anything coming out of New England around this time because Bill Belichick is the last person to let any draft information leak. Jenkins is a perfect fit for Belichick’s scheme because he’s smart, intuitive and has a great head on his shoulders. He would be a solid pick here.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
I’ve gone round and round with this pick for weeks. The Falcons have several needs including tight end, outside linebacker, defensive tackle, defensive end and safety. Everyone and their mother assumes that the Falcons are going to take Brandon Pettigrew if he’s available, but considering the tight end position is an afterthought in Mike Murlarkey’s offense, I bet they wait until later in the draft to fill that need. The top need is at defensive tackle, which makes Peria Jerry (if he’s available) and Evander Hood possibilities, although Hood is a better fit than Jerry because Jerry doesn’t play nose and that’s the position Atlanta needs to address. But at the end of the day, the safety class is weak this year and if Atlanta waits, it might not be able to address that need later in the draft. So they take Delmas here and wait to grab a DT, OLB and TE later in the draft. But I could see the Falcons going with any one of these prospects at No. 24: Pettigrew, Delmas, Hood, Clint Sintim and Clay Matthews.

25. Miami Dolphins: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Miami doesn’t have much in terms of starting-quality cornerbacks outside of Will Allen. Smith is a very good athlete who doesn’t mind coming up to play the run and is fundamentally sound. He’s not the biggest prospect, but he seems like a Bill Parcells-type of athlete and has loads of experience.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
The Ravens have needs at safety, cornerback and defensive end, but their interest in Anquan Boldin suggests that they might go wide receiver with this pick. Derek Mason is consistent, but he’s getting up there in age and Mark Clayton has not proved that he can make much of an impact. There might not be any way Maclin falls this far (he’s slated to go in the top 15), but if he does, he would be the ultimate steal at this spot.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
In my first two mocks, I said that Peria Jerry would be a slam-dunk at this pick, but I have him going No. 22 to the Vikings now, so Hood falls to Indy. The Colts have a major need at defensive tackle with Darrell Reid now in Denver and Hood (6’2”, 300 pounds) would give their defensive line much-needed bulk considering Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster each weigh well under 275 pounds.

28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
There is a huge possibility that Pettigrew won’t fall this far, but if he does, he would seem like a lock to land in Buffalo. Some mock projections even have him going to the Bills at No. 11, although that seems like a bigger stretch than him falling to No. 28. Either way, Pettigrew would form a nice 1-2 combination with T.O. in the Bills’ offense.

29. New York Giants: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
What the hell do I do with this pick? If the G-Men don’t trade for Braylon Edwards, then a receiver is obviously needed, which is why I have Nicks penciled in at this spot. But if they do acquire Edwards, then tight end and safety become the two biggest needs and if Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas are both off the board, then it looks like the Giants will be reaching no matter what they do. Britt might not be available and if he isn’t, Hakeen Nicks is also a possibility.

30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
The Titans could use a corner to play opposite Cortland Finnegan once Nick Harper decides to call it quits. Butler has excellent quickness and athleticism, although he comes with some durability issues. Still, the former Husky is a smart, confident player and someone that Tennessee could bring along slowly to eventually replace Harper.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
Is English a great fit for the Cardinals? Maybe not, but they do have needs at both defensive end and outside linebacker and English is the best hybrid prospect left on the board. Arizona needs another pass rusher, which is what English excelled at in college. Some have compared him to a poor man’s Terrell Suggs, which certainly bodes well for English’s potential.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Considering he’s the best guard prospect in the draft, Robinson might not last to the 32nd pick in the first round. But if he does, the Steelers would instantly upgrade their guard position with the 6’5”, 329-pound former Sooner. Robinson has outstanding strength and is very powerful.

I’m saying the over/under on correct picks for this mock is 7 and I’m taking the under. Anyone taking the over so I can feel good about myself?