As expected, the wheels have fallen off. I’ve gone 2-6 the past two weeks and my once-winning record is now tattered and torn. But f&$k it, let’s make some picks this week anyway.

Falcons (9-2) @ Bucs (7-4), 4:15PM ET
Call it a hunch, a feeling or intuition, but I think the Falcons are due for a letdown. They’ve won five in a row, have covered in three straight games and have not turned the ball over in four straight. Five straight would be a NFL record, so something tells me this house of cards comes down on Sunday in Tampa. That’s not to say that I’m not a believer in the Falcons because I am. But I can see it now: On Monday, everyone will be talking about how the Saints are the “forgotten team” in the NFL. If they win in Cincinnati on Sunday and Atlanta loses in Tampa, the Saints and Falcons would have the same record. The media is dying for a here-comes-the-Saints frenzy and I think they’re about to get it. The Bucs have yet to beat a team with a winning record this year, but they’ve always given the Falcons trouble. I smell an upset.
THE PICK: BUCS +2

Saints (8-3) @ Bengals (2-9), 1:00PM ET
As previously mentioned (if you had bothered to read my write up on the Falcons-Bucs, that is), everyone is ready and waiting to jump back onto the Saints’ bandwagon. The Saints have been lying in the weeds for most of the season and now their crap schedule (the Bucs and Steelers with winning records that the Saints have beaten this year) has allowed them to stay right up the Falcons’ butts in the NFC South. And once they wax the floor with the inconsistent Bengals on Sunday and the Bucs spring an upset over the Falcons in Tampa, New Orleans and Atlanta will be tied at 9-3 heading down the stretch. Oh yes, I can see it all now.
THE PICK: SAINTS –6.5

Redskins (5-6) @ Giants (7-4), 1:00PM ET
Everyone has been ready and willing to write the Redskins off and at 5-6, maybe we can. But when nobody expected the Skins to beat Dallas in the opener, they did. When nobody expected them to take down the Eagles in Philadelphia, they did (albeit without Michael Vick playing most of the game). When nobody expected them to go on the road and beat the Packers and Bears, they did. So now that nobody expects them to pull off an upset in New York this Sunday, will they surprise us again? Donovan McNabb has had the G-Men’s number over the years and even if Washington doesn’t win outright, I’m willing to bet the Skins keep it close.
THE PICK: REDSKINS +7

Steelers (8-3) @ Ravens (8-3), 8:20PM ET
This one is set up too nicely for the Ravens. Big Ben is hobbling around with a bad foot/ankle, the Ravens are at home and they’ve already beaten the Steelers once this year (in Pittsburgh, no less). But Roethlisberger (much like McNabb when it comes to playing the Giants) has had Baltimore’s number over the years. In games that he starts against the Ravens, he’s 7-2 in his career. When he doesn’t start due to injuries or him being suspended for being a perv, the Ravens are 4-0. There’s just something about the Steelers getting points that makes me feel all warm and secure inside.
THE PICK: STEELERS +3

Season Record: 21-22-1

A 2-2 Sunday in Week 6 has left me starring at a losing record this season in the NFL. While I hit the Eagles and Vikings last Sunday, the Bears and Raiders left me hanging with their horrendous efforts against the Seahawks and 49ers, respectively.

Maybe this is the week it all turns around for good and I can start sleeping at night again. That losing record haunts my dreams…

Browns (1-5) @ Saints (4-2), 1:00PM ET
Despite a wide array of injuries, the Saints’ dominated a Tampa team last Sunday that had been playing with a lot of confidence. Maybe New Orleans has found a way to overcome all the injuries and will start to turn it on. Either way, the Browns are banged up themselves and don’t have the luxury of having Drew Brees under center to right the ship. I was impressed with Colt McCoy’s NFL debut last Sunday in Pittsburgh, but he may be without Josh Cribbs (head) and Mohammad Massaquoi (head) this Sunday, which is a problem considering Cleveland was already thin at receiver. The Browns will try to win this game on the ground with Peyton Hillis, but I think their defense will be on the field for long stretches of time and the Saints’ offense will kick it into high gear at some point. New Orleans rolls again this week.
THE PICK: SAINTS -13

49ers (1-5) @ Panthers (0-5), 1:00PM ET
Sorry for my bluntness, but I don’t like the Panthers. I think they rival the Bills for being the worst team in the league and whether it’s Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen that takes the snaps, I think they have a good chance of losing every Sunday. That said, I don’t trust the 49ers as far as I can throw them. Their first win came against an Oakland team last Sunday that actually may have been trying to lose based on the effort they gave. I don’t think San Fran is well coached, I don’t think they play disciplined football and I don’t trust Mike Singletary’s in-game decision-making. So while it pains me to take Carolina, I think they get their first win this week and Vegas burns those that are hoping back onto the 49ers’ shaky bandwagon.
THE PICK: PANTHERS +2

Patriots (4-1) @ Chargers (2-4), 4:15PM
Before making my picks each week, I scour locate all the traps. And this, my friends, is a trap. Why in God’s name would anyone take a 2-4 San Diego team playing a 4-1 New England squad that just beat the Ravens? Because the Chargers are 2-0 at home? Not buying it. Antonio Gates is hurt and may not play and the Chargers were just dominated by the Rams. There’s simply no reason to take the Bolts this week, which is exactly why I’m taking the Bolts this week….and for a more logical take on the game: The Chargers have looked like a completely different team at home this year and Philip Rivers should take advantage of a suspect New England secondary. It’s tough for East Coast teams to travel cross-country and win on the road, and no team will travel farther than the Pats this weekend. The depleted Chargers win and cover.
THE PICK: CHARGERS –3

Giants (4-2) @ Cowboys (1-4), 8:30PM ET, Monday
Speaking of traps…The Giants have won three in a row and have been awfully impressive on both sides of the ball the past three weeks. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have shot themselves in the foot at every opportunity and have essentially become a joke. With that in mind, what better time for Dallas to wake up then against a division rival on national television? Expect the unexpected every week in the NFL. Everyone is expecting the ‘Boys to lay an egg and embarrass themselves on Monday night, but I actually think the opposite plays out. I think the Cowboys put together their best performance of the season and make people consider whether or not they can climb back into the NFC East race. (Then they’ll promptly lose next week by committing 17 penalties and turning the ball over six times and then they’ll go back to being a joke.)
THE PICK: COWBOYS -3

Season Record: 9-10-1

I had a brutal day in college football last weekend and it carried over into my NFL predictions on Sunday. The Bucs, Broncos and 49ers were all losers, while the Cowboys turned out to be my own winn-ah.

Oh, the horror.

I’ve got a new attitude, a new perspective and a new lease on life this week. I smell a 0-4 4-0 day…

Ravens +1 at. Steelers, 1:00PM ET
At some point, the fact that the Steelers don’t have a quarterback has to catch up with them, right? Well, if it doesn’t this week then it won’t matter because Big Ben is set to return next Sunday. I’m fully aware that Charlie Batch threw for three touchdowns last weekend in Tampa, but I think John Paulsen started at free safety for the Bucs. Baltimore’s defense took a step back in the win over Cleveland last Sunday, but the offense showed signs of life for the first time all year. Ray Rice is banged up, but he wasn’t going to find much running room this week anyway. No defense is playing better than Pittsburgh’s is right now, but I still think the secondary can be had outside of Troy Polamalu (the best, hands down, overall defender in the league in my estimation). Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin win this one through the air, while the Ravens’ D finally makes things miserable on a Steelers’ backup quarterback.
THE PICK: RAVENS +1

Jets at. Bills +5, 1:00PM ET
The Jets are coming off back-to-back wins and while Mark Sanchez has been solid, I still don’t entirely trust the little bugger. Make no mistake – the Bills aren’t a good football team. But they’re being undervalued by odds makers this week and I’ll gladly take the five points with the home team. Ryan Fitzpatrick breathed some life into Buffalo’s offense last Sunday in New England and while he’ll face a much better defense this weekend, divisional games are generally pretty tight.
THE PICK: BILLS +5

Bengals at. Browns +3, 1:00PM ET
Neither of these teams is any good, even though the Bengals are currently sporting a winning record. Carson Palmer’s game is shaky at best right now and I don’t think a turnaround is coming. Peyton Hillis was an absolute beast last Sunday in Baltimore and if he runs like that again this weekend, he may open things up for Seneca Wallace in the passing game. I always see value in the home team getting points and seeing as how the Bengals aren’t a very scary 2-1, I like Cleveland to get its first win of the year.
THE PICK: BROWNS +3

Colts at. Jaguars +7, 4:05PM ET
For some reason, no matter how good or poorly they’re playing, the Jaguars always seem to give the Colts issues. Last year, the Jags hung with Indy twice and while David Garrard is playing like the second coming of Joey Harrington, the key is Maurice Jones-Drew. We all remember what Arian Foster did to the Colts’ defense in Week 1 and if Jones-Drew can have even half the amount of success as the Texans’ back did that day, then Jacksonville will be able to keep the game close this Sunday. This is also the second time in as many weeks that the Colts have to travel and they’re coming off a game in which they allowed Kyle Orton to throw for 476 yards. I don’t think the Jags win, but I could see a 24-20 finish, or somewhere around there.
THE PICK: JAGUARS +7

After picking all the games in Week 1, last week was the first time I limited my predictions to only four games. And after a 2-1-1 Sunday – I’m hot! On fire, really…

The Packers and Bengals were winners in Week 2, while the Raiders (thanks to a backdoor cover by the Rams) were losers and the Redskins (thanks to being jerk-faces and blowing a lead against the Texans) were a push.

Here are my top 4 predictions for Week 3 in the NFL:

Steelers at Buccaneers +1.5, Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This game looks a little too good to be true. The Steelers’ defense has been lights out early in the season and despite their 2-0 record, the Bucs still have plenty of issues offensively. So take the Steelers and lay the measly 1.5 points right? Well first of all, don’t tell me what to do. Second of all, something smells funny to me. For the third week in a row the Steelers will try to run the ball 60 times out of the 60 offensive plays they run and lean on the defense to create turnovers so they can eek out another field goal-riddled victory. The problem is that Tampa is playing with a ton of confidence right now and are catching Pittsburgh at the right time. For starters, Charlie Batch will once again start under center, limiting the Steelers’ effectiveness on offense. This is also the second time in as many weeks that Pittsburgh has to play on the road and also has a huge divisional game coming up next week against Baltimore – which oh-by-the-way is a week before Big Ben returns from his suspension. This is a classic look-ahead game for the Steelers, who get caught with their pants down. (Uh, okay that was probably in poor taste given the Roethlisbathroom situation. My apologizes.)
THE PICK: BUCCANEERS +1.5

Cowboys +2.5 at Texans, Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This is another game people are probably licking their chops at: a 2-0 Texans team playing at home against a pitiful 0-2 Cowboys team? And I only have to lay 2.5 points? Sign me up. The problem is that the Texans are another team (kind of like the Steelers, but even more so) that is due for a letdown. They’re coming off two emotional wins (one over their biggest bully and the second in come-from-behind fashion) and now come home to face a Cowboys team that is reeling. And the problem with reeling teams is that you’re probably going to get their best effort because they’re desperate for a win. There’s no doubt the Cowboys should be focused and with Houston missing left tackle Duane Brown (suspension), it could come this weekend. I don’t expect the Texans to score over 30 points again like they did the last two weeks and DeMarcus Ware could have a huge day pressuring Matt Schaub with Brown out. I like Dallas to get the straight up win.
THE PICK: COWBOYS +2.5

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Instead of limiting myself to only four games like I have the previous weeks, I’ve decided to channel my inner Peter King and make predictions (with smaller write ups) on every contest on the NFL schedule this week.

49ers at Texans, 1:00PM ET
It had to have been a long two weeks for San Francisco’s players after the Falcons drubbed the Niners 45-10 in Week 5. Mike Singletary will have his team more focused and I think we’ll see a great defensive effort from San Fran this Sunday to slow down a potent Houston offensive attack.
Odds: Texans –3.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Texans 17.

Packers at Browns, 1:00PM ET
This will be a closer game than most think. The Packers could be looking ahead to a home date with the Vikings next Sunday, although in the end Cleveland’s offense is putrid and while Green Bay has been inconsistent defensively this year, I think they’ll do enough to get the Pack a victory.
Odds: Packers –9.
Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16.

Chargers at Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Ron Rivera has no clue on how to get San Diego’s defense back on track, but the young, inexperienced Kansas City secondary could have issues slowing down Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ passing game. Still, I think Matt Cassel and company pull off a surprise upset at home against a San Diego team coming off a short week.
Odds: Chargers –5
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 18.

Colts at Rams, 1:00PM ET
The Rams have given a nice effort the past two weeks, but this is a horrible matchup for them – even at home. Peyton Manning and company is well rested and the Indy defense will harass Marc Bulger all game.
Odds: Colts –14
Prediction: Colts 34, Rams 14.

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