Thanks to Kyle Orton’s terrific Monday night performance against Pittsburgh and Green Bay’s outstanding effort in Tampa, I took one on the chin last week to go 2-3. Law of averages says I get things right this week, right? Right?!

Here are my top four plays for Sunday.

Bengals (6-2) at Steelers (6-2), 1:00PM ET
I don’t see the Bengals sweeping the Steelers this season, but Cincinnati isn’t getting enough respect. Their defense is legit and they have the secondary to matchup with a team like the Steelers that likes to put the ball in the air. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco have played well this season and should be able to keep the Bengals in the game. For as good as the Steelers are and as much as they’ll get up for a division rival like the Bengals who have already beaten them once this season, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after earning an emotional win in Denver. In the end, I think the Steelers defense won’t wilt like they did in the fourth quarter of the first contest, but this game is going to be closer than the odds would indicate.
Odds: Steelers –7.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 16.

Saints (8-0) at Rams (1-7), 1:00PM ET
The Saints haven’t covered in two weeks as double-digit favorites and while some bettors might think now is the perfect time to back a Rams team coming off a bye and getting 13.5 points at home, I would caution them. The Falcons and Panthers played the Saints tough because they’re familiar with New Orleans and divisional games are always closer than people think. It’s about time Drew Brees touches another opponent up for three or four scores and this is the perfect weekend to do going against a suspect St. Louis secondary. Actually, the Rams defense isn’t as bad as many think and they might be able to hang with New Orleans in the first half. But the Rams’ offense is putrid and the Saints’ defense has preyed on their opponents’ mistakes all season. I fully expect Sean Payton’s team to romp and I’ll gladly eat the chalk.
Odds: Saints –13.5.
Prediction: Saints 37, Rams 10.

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Here are my top 5 picks for Week 9 against the spread. As usual, fade at will…

Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1), 8:30PM ET, Monday
This game set up nicely for the Steelers, who have won four in a row, are coming off a bye and are playing a Denver team that was thumped last Sunday by the Ravens. But I fully expect Josh McDaniels and the Broncos to learn from their loss last week to Baltimore and rebound on Monday night. Denver is always a tough place to play – just ask the Cowboys and Patriots, whom the Broncos beat earlier this year at Invesco Field. I don’t expect Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to have a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s excellent defense, but I do think Denver’s defense will force a couple turnovers to set the offense up in good field position. Linebacker Elvis Dumervil has been a beast this season and Ben Roethlisberger has always had trouble holding onto the ball. While some will start to doubt the Broncos after last week, I’m holding strong that this is a good football team and will prove it with a small upset Monday night.
Odds: Steelers –3.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Steelers 17.

Texans (5-3) at Colts (7-0), 1:00PM ET
This game has trap written all over it. The Texans have won three straight and four of their last five, while the Colts finally looked beatable last week in their 18-14 win over the 49ers. Your head and gut tell you that Houston will be able to hang with Indy this weekend and at the very least cover the 9-point spread, if not win outright. But don’t be fooled – the Colts are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Colts and have covered in six of those 10 games. While the ATS trends aren’t impressive, Peyton Manning should have his way with an improving, but suspect Houston defense at home. With Bob Sanders sidelined again, the Texans should score, but it’s not like Indy isn’t used to not having Sanders on the field. This one will be a little bit of a shoot out, but I see the Colts winning by a decent margin in the end.
Odds: Colts –9.
Prediction: Colts 35, Texans 24.

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