2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

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NFL Week 9 ROY Power Rankings

The first three players on this list were on bye last week, so we have to hold their places. Other than that, there have been quite a few impressive rookie performances this year so far…

1. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—Seven picks leads all rookies and earned Byrd NFL defensive rookie of the month for October. What does he do for an encore? Vince Young might find out this Sunday in Nashville.

2. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—He may have learned that the NFC West is not the Big Ten, but that hasn’t stopped Laurinaitis from making a lot of tackles. His 46 solo tackles leads all NFL rookies.

3. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings—One of the reasons Brad Childress is in line for coach of the year is that he foresaw Brett Favre and Percy Harvin making beautiful music together on the field, despite what all the critics were saying.

4. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles—His 115 all-purpose yards against Dallas was, dare we say it? Westbrook-esque.

5. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles—As if opposing defensive coordinators were having trouble sleeping while scheming for DeSean Jackson, now they have this kid to worry about too.

Honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks, Giants; Knowshon Moreno, Broncos; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Michael Oher, Ravens; Mike Wallace, Steelers

NFL Week 9 MVP Power Rankings

With Drew Brees and Peyton Manning leading their teams to victory again, barely, there is no good reason to drop them in the rankings here. Meanwhile, Brett Favre and Jared Allen did not play, so we held spots for them, but moved Cedric Benson up based on a second 100-yard rushing performance against the Ravens.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Halfway through the season, Brees and his Saints are 8-0 and have a three game lead in their division. Suffice to say, this team appears to be headed toward a first round bye, and their QB is one of the biggest reasons.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—After a subpar start to 2008 after knee surgery, Manning wanted to get off to a fast start this season, and he has done just that. But what might be more impressive is that after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he’s throwing to guys named Garcon and Collie.

3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He rushed for 120 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, and 117 yards against them in Week 9. Read that back. That’s two 100 yard games against the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s just sick.

4. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—The old man still has it, much to the dismay of everyone in Northern Wisconsin. You think Ted Thompson is sleeping well lately?

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He’s had two weeks to rest those wheels that never seem to stop moving. Next on Allen’s hit list is that poor Stafford kid in Detroit.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Michael Turner, Falcons; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Steve Smith, Giants

Cowboys make statement in NFC East – are the Giants done?

With their 20-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys made a huge statement in the NFC East.

After squeaking by a bad Kansas City team in Week 5, Dallas went into its bye week on a mission. They emerged in Week 7 and took it to a good Falcons team at home, beating Atlanta 37-21. They took care of business at home the next week by beating Seattle 38-17 and then proved they could win on the road in a hostile environment last night.

There’s a lot of football left to be played, but the Cowboys are finally playing with some consistency under Wade Phillips. Granted, maybe nothing has changed and Dallas will go on to lose five of their next eight games and miss the playoffs. But at least for the moment, the Cowboys are playing as good as any team in the league right now.

All is certainly not lost for the Eagles following this loss, but this was a disappointing defeat after routing the Giants 40-17 last Sunday. They couldn’t sustain drives and Donovan McNabb threw two costly interceptions. With teams like the Chargers, Falcons, Giants, Broncos and Cowboys left on their schedule, the Eagles certainly have their work cut out for them in the second half.

Speaking of the Giants, with they have now lost four in a row after the Chargers came from behind in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to beat New York 21-20 on Sunday. Eli Manning threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns, but the Giants twice settled for field goals in the second half and it came back to haunt them.

Even after losing four straight, I don’t think anyone is ready to completely write off the G-Men, but what is this team’s identity is at it stumbles into its bye? The Giants have been a team that lives and dies by rushing the quarterback it’s apparent that this isn’t the same pass-rushing team that it was earlier in the year. Of course, they did rack up wins against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, so that built some false hope.

Tom Coughlin and his coaching staff has a lot to work on heading into the bye. We’ll see if the Giants can emerge from their off week ready to go, because they’ll face the Falcons, Broncos, Cowboys and Eagles in succession starting in Week 11. That’s not exactly the kind of schedule a team wants to deal with after dropping four straight.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

NFL Week 8 ROY Power Rankings

The one guy we were neglecting so far was Minnesota’s Percy Harvin, who has slowly and quietly started to put up numbers and become a favorite target of Brett Favre. This is a guy Brad Childress took a big gamble on that so far is paying off. But Byrd and Laurinaitis are holding strong.

1. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—Two more picks for this safety out of Oregon against the Texans, and now Byrd is tied with Darren Sharper for the NFL lead. That’s amazing in itself, but consider which team this guy plays for and it’s even more remarkable.

2. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—Seven more tackles against Detroit…okay, we know, it’s Detroit….still, what Byrd has done to this point is slightly more impressive.

3. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings—Becoming a favorite target of Brett Favre, caught 5 more passes for 84 yards and a score in Green Bay.

4. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles—Filled in quite admirably for Brian Westbrook Sunday, slicing through a suddenly sieve-like Giants’ defense.

5. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles—Everyone on the Eagles had a field day against the Giants, this rookie included (4 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD).

Honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks, Giants; Knowshon Moreno, Broncos; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Michael Oher, Ravens; Mike Wallace, Steelers

NFL Week 8 COY Power Rankings

Leading the way here, are, not surprisingly, the two coaches who have unblemished records. But remember how the Giants started out 11-1 last year and then finished 12-5, including an early playoff exit? The Titans did something similar. So nothing is guaranteed, but these guys are sure off to good starts and deserve to top the list. The boy wonder in Denver, however, fell under scrutiny after losing to Baltimore, but if he bounces back against Pittsburgh, look out.

1. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—The talk has begun on whether or not the Saints can run the table. Think about that for a minute. Did anyone see that coming at the start of the season?

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Everyone is saying to wait until the Colts play a real opponent, but still, you don’t get to 7-0 by being lucky. Still, should be interesting to see how that upcoming Sunday nighter against New England shakes out.

3. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—Yeah, the Vikings are pretty good. And we’ll keep saying Childress looks like a genius for bringing back #4 until #4 proves us otherwise.

4. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Finally a blemish on the Broncos’ record in Baltimore, but it was lopsided enough to start wondering about just how talented this upstart team is.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—A bye week keeps Marvin safe, but a rematch against Baltimore looms, and then a road game in Pittsburgh.

Honorable mention: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Gary Kubiak, Texans; Andy Reid, Eagles; Wade Phillips, Cowboys (well, he’s 5-2 and climbing back into contention!); Mike Tomlin, Steelers

Should the Giants be concerned about Eli?

During the Giants’ five-game winning streak at the start of the season, Eli Manning didn’t have a QB rating lower than 93.5. In the Giants’ current three-game losing streak, Manning hasn’t had a QB rating higher than 61.0, which includes his 55.7 mark in New York’s embarrassing 40-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 8.

To say that Manning hasn’t been good lately would be an understatement. In the loss to Philadelphia, he was 20-of-39 for 222 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. And given how inaccurate he was most of the day, he could have been intercepted at least two more times.

In his last three games, Manning has thrown six interceptions to just three touchdowns. The mistakes he’s made aren’t typical of a veteran quarterback that has a Super Bowl ring – they’re more akin to a first year starter with little to no experience. He looks like a player with zero confidence and he doesn’t appear to trust his own decision-making.

While the Giants have more issues than just Eli (the secondary has also played poorly and the team continues to struggle with injuries), they have to be concerned with his play. New York has needed him to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victories and he hasn’t. And based on the way he’s played the past three weeks, there’s serious doubt he’ll be able to break the Giants out of their funk without a lot of help from his defense and running game.

That said, it’s only been three games and while he has looked horrible in those three outing, he looked great in the first five games of the season. The problem is that the Cowboys were the only team with a winning record that the Giants have beaten this year. Eli’s impressive numbers have come against teams like the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, while he has struggled against tough opponents in the Saints, Cardinals and Eagles, respectively.

With David Carr listed on the depth chart behind Manning, the Giants won’t consider a QB change. But the entire team better start picking up their play before the season starts to slip away from them, and it all starts with Eli.

NFL Week 7 ROY Power Rankings

Remember the name Jairus Byrd, because he just jumped on this list…and don’t rule out Michael Crabtree, who had a very impressive NFL opening game against Houston last weekend.

1. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—Four more solo tackles against the Colts last Sunday, so this kid has done nothing to hurt his standing.

2. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—This safety has been flying under our radar, but he was chosen as the NFL’s defensive rookie of the month for his 15 tackles and (yikes) 5 interceptions in October alone. Wow.

3. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos—The bye week should have this young stallion rested and ready to face two daunting defenses in the Ravens and Steelers coming up. Can he handle it? Time will tell.

4. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants—Did you see that lucky grab and run for a score Sunday night? Maybe it was more than luck…it was being in the right place at the right time, football instincts that can’t be taught. And along with Byrd, Nicks won NFL offensive rookie honors for October.

5. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles—This rookie has become a new favorite target of Donovan McNabb, and had 5 more catches Monday night against Washington.

Honorable mention: Matthew Stafford, Lions; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Michael Oher, Ravens

Cardinals starting to build momentum

Last season, all the Arizona Cardinals heard about was how they couldn’t win on the road, they couldn’t play defense in crunch time and they couldn’t win a game at night when the moon was in full view and there were precisely 50,139 visible stars in the sky and not 49,349.

On Sunday night, the Cardinals went into Giants Stadium and beat New York, 24-17. It was Arizona’s third road victory of the season in as many tries and its third straight win since its 1-2 start. The Cards won largely with defense, as they forced four turnovers, including three Eli Manning interceptions.

Down 24-17 with less than five minutes remaining, the Giants had two opportunities to tie the game. But Arizona’s defense stymied them twice — once after Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled at midfield and another when Antrel Rolle intercepted Manning along the sideline to end New York’s chances.

Pundits were ready to crown the 49ers the new NFC West champs after their 3-1 start, but they look awfully overrated these days after two straight losses. Suddenly, everyone is fixing their eyes on the Cardinals again.

They still can’t run the ball and their passing attack doesn’t seem as potent as it was last year, but the Cards currently have the best run defense in the league and their running game is starting to show signs of life with rookie Beanie Wells. If they can continue to play defense the way they did last night in East Rutherford, they’ll once again become the team to beat in the NFC West. (If they haven’t already.)

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NFL Week 7 ROY Power Rankings

A tougher award to measure, as no one has really stepped up to be among the NFL’s stat leaders. Well, unless you consider LB James Laurinaitis from Ohio State.

1. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—45 tackles to date and had another interception against the Jaguars last Sunday. This kid is playing lights out and you have to believe he’s been invited to Steve Spagnuolo’s house for Thanksgiving.

2. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos—He didn’t do much against the Chargers, but he didn’t really have to with the Eddie Royal kick return show.

3. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants—It was in garbage time mostly, but Nicks racked up 114 yards and a TD against the Saints, fitting in like a veteran on a team that desperately needed receiver help going into 2009.

4. Michael Oher, Baltimore Ravens—It’s hard to measure O-linemen, but after a nice job against Antwan Odom, Oher got into a pissing match with Jared Allen last Sunday. He gets props just for that.

5. Ryan Succop, Kansas City Chiefs—Even if he hasn’t had many chances, Succop has only missed one field goal, that from beyond 50.

Honorable mention: Matthew Stafford, Lions

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