If NFL teams want better defenses, they better build outdoors

Georgia DomeLast Sunday a couple friends and I were watching the Ravens-Dolphins playoff game and we were talking about how good both Baltimore and Miami’s defenses were this season. Then we started to gab about other top defenses in the league and the thought dawned on me – all the good defensive teams play outdoors.

Think about it. What teams had the best defenses in 2008? Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington and the Giants all ranked in the top five – all outdoors teams. Granted, Minnesota was No. 6, but the next dome team was Indianapolis at No. 11.

Out of the eight dome teams (I’ll count both Dallas and Arizona as dome teams), five of them (Arizona, Atlanta, New Orleans, St. Louis and Detroit) finished in the bottom half of the league in total defense. In 2007, six of the eight teams finished in the bottom half. In 2006, five teams finished in the bottom half. In 2005, four of the seven dome teams (Arizona was outdoors before 2006) finished in the bottom half and in 2004, six of the seven dome teams ranked in the bottom half defensively.

Here’s a breakdown of how each dome team has done defensively since 2002:

Arizona 2006-2008: 29th; 17th; 19th
Atlanta 2002-2008: 19th; 32nd; 14th; 22nd; 22nd; 29th; 24th
Dallas 2002-2008: 18th; 1st; 16th; 10th; 20th; 13th; 9th; 8th
Detroit 2002-2008: 31st; 24th; 22nd; 28th; 32nd; 32nd
Indianapolis 2002-2008: 8th; 11th; 29th; 11th; 21st; 11th;
Minnesota 2002-2008: 26th; 23rd; 28th; 21st; 8th; 20th; 3rd; 6th
New Orleans 2002-2008: 27th; 18th; 32nd; 14th; 11th; 26th; 23rd
St. Louis 2002-2008: 13th; 16th; 17th; 30th; 23rd; 21st; 28th

Let’s recap:

- Of the eight dome teams, only three of them have ever finished in the top 10 in total defense since 2002.
- Only two of them (Dallas and Minnesota) have ever finished in the top 5 in total defense since 2002.
- All of them have finished in the bottom half of the league in total defense at least once.
- Atlanta, Detroit, New Orleans and St. Louis haven’t cracked the top 10 in total defense once since 2002.

Granted, there are several huge factors that work against the theory that dome teams are worse off defensively than those that play outdoors. First and foremost, there’s a larger sample size of outdoors teams than dome, so of course they’re going to have better overall defensive rankings. Secondly, 2002 to 2008 might not be a long enough time period to definitively say that dome teams are worse defensively.

But think about it – when has a dome team ever had a consistently good defense? Chicago, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New England have always been known for their defense. Outside of the “Purple People Eaters” when has a dome team ever been known for its defense? Never. And this plays into the fact that dome teams struggle to make Super Bowl appearances.

Why? It can’t be that these teams have ignored their defenses over the years or have just had terrible luck in the drafts. Free agency has allowed teams to rebuild in just one offseason, so it’s not like these teams haven’t had the opportunity to re-tool their defensive units.

The simple explanation is that teams can obviously move the ball better when they don’t have to deal with weather conditions, so therefore dome teams are more susceptible to giving up more yardage and points. But is that it? So dome teams are just doomed defensively for the end of time? They best they can do on a consistent basis is finish 11-16 in total defense?

Obviously this research is largely incomplete, but it’s an interesting topic.

NFL Week 17 Quick Hit Thoughts: Lions 0-16, Brees falls short, Big Ben hurt

Detroit Lions- With their 31-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions wound up on the wrong side of history in 2008, finishing the season 0-16. No team in the NFL history has ever finished 0-16, but the good news for Lion fans is that owner William Clay Ford Sr. doesn’t plan on changing a thing about the organization. Yikes.

- I feel bad for Drew Brees. He needed just 16 more passing yards in the Saints’ 33-31 loss to the Panthers on Sunday to eclipse Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a single-season. I’m a little surprised that with Carolina’s defenders playing so far back, that Brees didn’t just zing one over the middle for 10 or 12 yards and let one of his receivers pick up the rest of the yardage. But I admire Brees for slinging it down field in an attempt to try and win the game. (I think that’s what he was doing?)

- In a nightmare situation for the Steelers in their 31-0 win over the hapless Cleveland Browns on Sunday, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was carted off the field after suffering a concussion late in the second quarter. Big Ben’s head slammed hard against the turf after he was crushed by two Brown defenders and it took the trainers nearly 15 minutes to attend to him. It’s unclear at this point the status of his health, although the Steelers do have a bye week before they host a playoff game.

- I didn’t see much of the Ravens’ 27-7 win over the Jaguars, but I do know that Baltimore is one scary looking playoff team. Their defense will allow them to compete with anyone and Joe Flacco might be playing better than any rookie in the league - including Matt Ryan.

- Peyton Manning went 7 for 7 for 95 yards and a touchdown in his final tune up before the playoffs. Whoever wins the AFC West between the Chargers and Broncos Sunday night should savor the moment because it’s going to be short-lived considering they’ll have to play Indy next weekend.

- I can’t believe how far the Bears’ defense has fallen since Chicago’s appearance in the Super Bowl two years ago. I mean, the Texans did whatever they wanted to the Bears and Chicago’s secondary made Matt Schaub look like Joe Theismann.

- According to the St. Petersburg Times, Buccaneers’ running back Cadillac Williams appears to have suffered a torn left patellar tendon in Tampa’s 31-24 loss to the Raiders. I don’t want to speculate before more information is released, but it’s a shame that such a promising career might be cut short.

Panthers are going to be tough to beat at home in playoffs

DeAngelo WilliamsThanks to John Kasay’s 42-yard field goal in the closing seconds of their 33-31 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South Division and secured the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

After 45 minutes of play at the Superdome, the Panthers were already being fitted for their NFC South Championship T-shirts. But the Saints scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to take a 31-30 lead with just over three minutes remaining in the game. Carolina then drove into New Orleans’ territory and Kasay eventually knocked through the game winner.

With the No. 2 seed comes a first round bye for the Panthers and more importantly, home field advantage throughout the playoffs unless they meet the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. The Panthers were 8-0 at home this year and outscored opponents 234-111.

This is an incredibly dangerous team as it is, but the Panthers seem to be even deadlier at home. And while that could be said for most teams, the notion seems to especially apply to Carolina.

Come playoff time, anything can happen. But it’s hard to fathom that the Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles or Cowboys can march into Carolina and contain the Panthers’ explosive running game - or Steve Smith. John Fox’s team is going to be dangerous in January.

NFL Week 17 Primer Early Games

Here are snapshot previews of the early games with playoff implications on Sunday.

Jake DelhommePanthers (11-4) at Saints (8-7), 1:00PM ET FOX
The Panthers’ playoff seeding rests solely in their own hands. If they beat the Saints, they’ll win the NFC South and clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. If they lose, they’ll need the Rams to beat the Falcons in order to win the division and earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. This is a dangerous game for the Panthers because it’ll be the second straight road game for them and they’re coming off a stinging overtime loss to the Giants. The Saints are also incredibly tough to beat at home and Drew Brees is attempting to break Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a single season. With a chance for Brees to break the record and his team to finish with a winning season, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton isn’t going to take it easy on a division foe. But can the Saints stop the run? The Panthers have relied on their running game all season and they’re not going to change their philosophy now. The Saints are going to score points, but if Carolina can keep the ball moving on the ground and keep Brees and Co. on the sidelines, the Panthers should come away with a win and a NFC South title. One damning stat that goes against Carolina, however, is the one that reads that NFC South teams are 0-11 on the road this year against NFC South opponents. Ouch.

Rams (2-13) at Falcons (10-5), 1:00PM ET FOX
With their 24-17 win over the Vikings last Sunday, the Falcons secured a spot in the playoffs but their seeding is still undetermined at this point. With a victory over the Rams coupled with a Panthers’ loss to the Saints, Atlanta will win the NFC South and clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. If both the Falcons and Panthers win, Atlanta clinches the fifth seed in the NFC and will play at Arizona Wild Card weekend. A loss to the Rams would drop the Falcons to the sixth seed, which means they would have to play on the road throughout the playoffs. St. Louis played San Francisco to the wire last week, but they’ve got to be mentally checked out at this point. And the Falcons don’t seem like a team to be caught looking ahead – especially considering nobody expected them to be in this position at the start of the season. They should soundly beat the Rams, but their seeding fate is in the hands of the Saints.

Patriots (10-5) at Bills (7-8), 1:00PM ET CBS
New England has looked absolutely dominant the past two weeks, scoring over 40 points in two impressive wins over the Raiders and Cardinals. The Bills have been a major disappointment after getting off to a hot start, but they’re coming off a huge upset win over the Broncos in Denver and have a chance to finish a respectable 8-8. In other words, this isn’t going to be a walk in the park for the Patriots, even though this is a game they should win. The Pats need a victory in Buffalo, coupled with a Dolphins’ loss to the Jets in order to win the AFC East title. The key will be whether or not the Bills can slow down Matt Cassel and the New England offense, which has lit up the scoreboard in bad weather the past two weeks. Buffalo might be a tough place to play, but the Pats won big in a driving rainstorm two weeks ago and then again in a blizzard last Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not the New England defense can keep Marshawn Lynch in check, though. Denver could last week and it opened things up for Trent Edwards in the passing game. If the Pats load up against the run and force Edwards to beat them through the air, they should be successful. But unfortunately for them, everything rides on the Jets beating the Dolphins at the Meadowlands.

Adrian PetersonGiants (12-3) at Vikings (9-6), 1:00PM ET FOX
Even though they can still win the division with a Bears loss in Houston, the Vikings put themselves in an inopportune situation by losing to the Falcons last week – a game in which they lost four fumbles in an otherwise dominant performance. The Giants will start their regulars, although Eli Manning and company will be pulled early in order to avoid injury. Even though they’ll have the pressure to win on their shoulders, this is a great situation for the Vikings. Since there’s a possibility they might face Minnesota again in the playoffs, the Giants are likely to dramatically scale back their game plan in efforts not to show the Vikings too much film. So not only will Minnesota play a bunch of scrubs for three and a half quarters, but they’ll also play a bunch of scrubs with a thin game plan. Unless they’re feeling ultra gracious again like they were last week, there’s no excuse for the Vikings to lose this game and thus, the NFC North crown.

Raiders (4-11) at Buccaneers (9-6), 1:00PM ET FOX
Although a win would go a long way in helping them clinch a Wild Card berth, the Buccaneers are heading in the wrong direction this time of year. Tampa has lost three in a row and outside of an overtime loss to the Falcons two weeks ago, the Bucs have looked as bad as a team could look in the midst of a losing streak. They’re having major issues stopping the run, although they might be getting healthy again along the defensive line, which would help. The Raiders haven’t been able to do much offensively this season, but they’ve had success running the ball. They’re averaging close to 120 yards per game on the ground this year and if they can get the run game working, they could pull off a huge upset. But chances are, Monte Kiffin is going to figure things out and put a defensive plan together to stifle a Raiders’ offense that is barely averaging over 15 points per game this season. I doubt Tampa loses two in a row at home, but anything can happen when a team is in the middle of a losing streak. They need a win over the Raiders, coupled with a Dallas loss at Philadelphia in order to secure the sixth and final playoff spot.

Bears (9-6) at Texans (7-8), 1:00PM ET FOX
The Bears’ playoff fate rests in the hands of the Vikings, who must lose at home against the Giants in order for Chicago to win the NFC North and clinch a postseason berth. The Bears still need to take care of their own business in Houston, or else Minnesota gets in via tiebreakers. Chicago is lucky its still in the race after having to rally late to beat Green Bay on Monday night, although it’s better to be lucky than good this time of year. The Bears need to figure out a way slow down Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson, two players that have played a major role in Houston’s resurgence over the past month. It would help if quarterback Kyle Orton could limit all the mistakes he’s been making, too. Orton has thrown eight interceptions in his last four games, but the Bears have somehow been able to overcome those mistakes and win three of those contests. Best-case scenario for the Bears this Sunday is to get a lead and rely on their defense and special teams to eek out a victory. But in order to do that, Orton better play mistake-free or else it won’t matter what the Vikings do on Sunday against the Giants.

Reggie Bush placed on IR

New Orleans Saints placed running back Reggie Bush on IR Wednesday, effectively ending his season.

Reggie BushBush injured his left knee against the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 19, and had arthroscopic surgery the next day to repair a torn meniscus. He missed four games for rehabilitation.

He returned to action against Tampa Bay on Nov. 30, but struggled and Coach Sean Payton reduced his playing time because of ineffectiveness.

Bush scored a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons on Dec. 7 and appeared to be back on track. But he suffered a setback against the Chicago Bears the next week and was benched in the second half, again because of ineffectiveness.

This news obviously elevates Pierre Thomas’s fantasy value ten-fold. Anyone fortunate enough to have him on their roster heading into their championship game this week should feel pretty good about his matchup with the Lions on Sunday.

One has to wonder about the long-term status of Bush in New Orleans. Thomas has been incredibly effective as the workhorse back for the Saints over the second half of the season and is clearly ready to take over Deuce McAllister’s role in Sean Payton’s offense next season. If Bush can’t stay healthy, there’s no way the Saints will re-up once his contract expires. No sense in overpaying for a back that can’t run between the tackles and misses games with various alignments.

John Paulsen and I discussed this topic on our weekly fantasy podcast chat (which will post sometime Thursday morning), so make sure to check it out.

When NFL coaches get too cute with their play calling

Sean PaytonThere’s an epidemic that continues to grow every year among NFL head coaches called, “cuteplaycallingitis”. I thought maybe the strain had subsided, but after watching the Bears’ 27-24 overtime win last night over the Saints, I realize the disease continues to grow.

In short, “cuteplaycallingitis” is when an NFL head coach decides to get cute with his play calling and/or approach within a game. There were several examples of this Thursday night.

The first example came in the fourth quarter with nine minutes remaining in the game and the Bears up 21-17. On a fourth and four from the Saints’ 47-yard line, Lovie Smith decided to fake a punt instead of pinning New Orleans deep in their own territory and forcing them to drive the length of the field. Adrian Peterson dropped the fake punt pass (which was more controversial than it should have been) and the Saints got the ball back at the 47-yard line and began to drive.

Of course, that’s when Sean Payton caught “cuteplaycallingitis” and decided to run a freaking sweep with Pierre Thomas on a fourth and one from the Bears’ 38-yard line. Why would you ever run a sweep wide against the Bears’ defense on fourth and one? Or any defense for that matter? How many examples do coaches need that a play like that doesn’t work before they stop running it? Payton has one of the most complex passing games in all of football, yet he decided to run wide with Thomas (who the Bears completely stuffed for a five-yard loss)? Okay, maybe he doesn’t put it in the air in that situation. There are still several better play calls than a sweep on fourth and one. It might have been the worst play call of the year.

But of course, that play didn’t wind up dooming the Saints because Lovie and his coaching staff caught the strain again on the Bears’ next possession. Instead of trying to run out the rest of the 5:29 remaining on the clock, Chicago decided to get cute and put the ball in the air on first and second down. The first play netted in an incomplete pass, which of course stopped the clock…the last thing the Bears needed up four points in the fourth quarter…while second down resulted in a Kyle Orton interception. The Saints eventually went down the field, scored the go ahead touchdown and then spent the rest of the game choking away a much-needed win.

Hey, I get it. If Peterson hangs onto the ball on the fake put, Lovie looks like a genius. If Thomas picks up the first down on the sweep, Payton looks like…well no, Payton would still have been a moron. But if Orton doesn’t throw the pick, the Bears might be applauded for staying aggressive late in the game. It’s easy to play Friday morning quarterback but even at the time, it appeared that both coaches got way too cute when they didn’t need to.

Saints could start living up to expectations Thursday in Chicago

Sean PaytonIt’s essentially now or never for the New Orleans Saints. After a season in which some thought they would make a deep postseason run, the Saints need a victory to keep their slim playoff hopes alive in the NFC.

Tonight the holy men are in Chicago to do battle with a Bears team that is in desperate need of a win themselves. The Bears remain one game behind the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North and considering the Vikes are likely to start backup Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback on Sunday against Arizona, a win over New Orleans could leave Chicago tied for first in the division by Sunday evening.

But nobody outside of Chicago expected too much from the Bears this year. The same cannot be said for the Saints.

In the offseason, New Orleans made a great effort to rebuild their beleaguered defense by adding LB Jonathan Vilma (trade/Jets), DT Sedrick Ellis (draft/first round) and CB Randall Gay (free agent/Patriots). The moves were supposed to be enough to keep opponents in check while the explosive Saints’ offense put up 30 points a game. But while the offense has done its part (No. 1 in the NFL in total yards), the defense has yielded just over 25 points a game and ranks in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run (20th) and pass (26th).

Part of the issue this year has been injuries as both Mike McKenzie and Charles Grant, two starters, have missed more than half the season. But the main issue for the Saints has been a lack of consistency – on both sides of the ball. The defense has done a decent job of loading the box and taking away the run at times, but then leaves itself vulnerable to opponents’ passing attacks. And up until last week when they beat the Falcons, head coach Sean Payton has been publicly criticized for abandoning the run and not having enough offensive balance.

A win tonight in Chicago would go a long way in saving the Saints’ season. It won’t be easy – Solider Field is a tough environment to play in December – but the Bears have only beaten one quality opponent in their last seven games (Week 7 vs. the Vikings) and have struggled mightily with consistency themselves. The key will be weather or not Payton will show the patience to stick with the run against a Bears’ defense that has been solid in taking away opponents’ rushing games. If they can, Chicago has proven that its not afraid to give up the sideline route and has had issues all season putting opponents away when they have a lead. And can the New Orleans defense force Kyle Orton to make mistakes? If they load up to stop Mike Forte, they better get pressure on Orton because he’s had success throwing vertically this season.

Should be a good one.

Saints find offensive balance, keep postseason hopes alive

Reggie BushNew Orleans Saints’ head coach Sean Payton was rightfully criticized throughout the week for not maintaining enough offensive balance this season. While the Saints statistically rank as the best offense in the league, they entered Sunday’s game against the Falcons as a 6-6 team with slim playoff hopes. No offense – not even the best in the league – can win consistently if they can’t run the ball. But the Saints rushed for 184 yards and beat division rival Atlanta 29-25 on Sunday.

Their running game was essentially the key because it opened everything up for Drew Brees and the passing game. Outside of the opening drive of the first quarter and most of the third, the Falcons’ defense looked befuddled at what Payton was throwing at them. They had no answer for New Orleans’ offense and allowed Pierre Thomas to rumble for 102 yards on just 16 carries. If Payton can keep himself from going Andy Reid on everybody, the Saints are going to be tough to beat the rest of the way.

For the Falcons, their loss cannot be placed on rookie Matt Ryan (24 of 33 for 315 yards, 1 TD) and the offense. Ryan was unbelievable and got a ton of help from Roddy White (10 catches, 164 yards) and Michael Jenkins (5 catches, 69 yards), who made the rookie quarterback look good on a couple of errant passes. Outside of a rookie mistake on an interception thrown in the first quarter, Ryan was damn near perfect and constantly kept drives alive with pinpoint passes.

The Falcons really put themselves in a hole with this loss, however. At 8-5, they’re still very much alive in the playoff race, but they host a tough Buccaneers team next week and then travel to Minnesota before finishing with the hapless Rams. They’ll have to win at least two of their next three games to make the playoffs, so a win over the Saints could have gone a long way.

We’ll see what Ryan and the young Falcons are made of over these next three weeks.

NFL Week 14 Primer

Marion BarberSunday’s Best: Cowboys (8-4) at Steelers (9-3), 4:15 PM ET FOX
The Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives while the Steelers are trying to stay ahead of the surprising Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Dallas could be without running back Marion Barber (toe injury), which would be a massive blow going against the best defenses in the league. If the ‘Boys can’t run the ball, expect Dick Lebeau to dial up plenty of blitzes to force quarterback Tony Romo into mistakes. This essentially is a must-win for the Cowboys, who would be left on the outside looking in if the playoffs started today. A loss coupled with a Falcons win over the Saints and the Cowboys would need some help the rest of the way, with a remaining schedule that looks like this: vs. Giants, vs. Ravens, at Eagles. The Steelers, meanwhile, should be at full strength as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and running back Willie Parker are expected to play. We’ll see what the Cowboys are made of come 4:00 o’clock on Sunday. Steelers are a currently a 3-point favorite.

Upset Watch: Texans (5-7) at Packers (5-7), 1:00 PM ET CBS
Houston welcomes back quarterback Matt Schaub this week but he’s not the reason they could pull off a decent-sized upset in Week 14. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is. Slaton is coming off a 130-yard effort against the Jaguars on Monday night and racked up 156 yards three weeks ago against the Colts. Considering the Packers are allowing a whopping 141.2 yards a game on the ground this year, Slaton could be set up for another huge day. The Texans will need to find a way to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers, however, or else it’s going to be tough to win at Lambeau. The Texans’ pass defense is improving, but Rodgers and company are averaging 228.9 passing yards a game and could find success against a young Houston secondary. If the Texans don’t win outright, I say they cover the 6-point spread.

Gus FrerotteIntriguing Matchup: Vikings (7-5) at Lions (0-12), 1:00 PM ET FOX
There’s nothing intriguing about the winless Detroit Lions, but what is interesting is whether or not Kevin and Pat Williams will play for the Vikings. Minnesota needs a victory to stay at least one-game ahead of the Bears and Packers in the division, but without their interior defensive line, even the Lions are capable of finding some running room. The league suspended the Williamses on Tuesday morning, but a court ruling could change all that and allow the two mammoth d-tackles to play. If they don’t, could Detroit get its first win and turn the NFC North upside down yet again? Can Gus Frerotte keep this team afloat if the defense loses two key players?

Other notable games:

Eagles (6-5-1) at Giants (11-1), 1:00 PM ET FOX
Philly will try and keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while a win would crown the G-Men as NFC East champions and get them one step closer to claiming home field advantage throughout the postseason.

Redskins (7-5) at Ravens (8-4), 8:15 PM ET FOX
This Sunday night matchup is a great one. Both teams desperately need a win to stay within reach of a playoff berth. A loss for the ‘Skins could essentially knock them out of the postseason race.

Buccaneers (9-3) at Panthers (9-3), 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Finally a great Monday Night Football matchup after weeks of utter crap. The winner takes a one-game lead in the NFC South and holds an edge for the second spot in the NFC playoff picture, while the loser gets tossed into the Wild Card mix.

Falcons (8-4) at Saints (6-6), 1:00 PM ET FOX
Atlanta has been a nice story this year, but it can’t relax now. A win would go a long way in securing a playoff spot for the Falcons, who finish with a possibly depleted Vikings and a hapless Rams team in their final two games.

NFL suspends six, including Deuce McAllister, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams

The NFL suspended six players for the final four games of the regular season for violating the league’s steroid and related substances policy.

Pat Williams & Kevin WilliamsThe suspended players were running back Deuce McAllister and defensive linemen Charles Grant and Will Smith of New Orleans; defensive linemen Kevin and Pat Williams of Minnesota; and long snapper Bryan Pittman of Houston.

The punishment means all six will miss the end of the regular season, an especially harsh blow to Minnesota, which relies heavily on the Williamses in its run defense, which ranks second in the league.
If a player’s team makes the playoffs, the player will be eligible to return to the active roster on Dec. 29.

The suspension of Pat and Kevin Williams, who are not related, may prove to be the most critical.
“In response to this afternoon’s ruling, the Minnesota Vikings are very disappointed in the National Football League’s suspension of Kevin and Pat Williams,” the team said in a statement. “At the appropriate time, we will have further comment.”

First things first – don’t confuse what these players took as being steroids. The league likes to group all banned substances under one umbrella, but a diuretic isn’t the same thing as full-blown steroids. Granted, a diuretic can be used to mask the use of steroids, but in the cases of these six players it looks like the pills were used to cut weight.

This is a massive blow to the Vikings, who just claimed a one game lead in the NFC North. It’s no secret their defense relies on stopping the run and now their two main pieces will miss the final four games. This is huge for the Bears and Packers, although both of those teams have their own issues to sort out.

Bucs make MVP candidate Brees look brutal

Saints-BucsFor all the talk about how Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees is an MVP candidate this season, the Tampa Bay defense made him look ordinary in the Buccaneers’ 23-20 victory on Sunday.

Brees threw for 296 yards and two touchdowns, but he was also picked off three times, including once on the Saints’ final offensive possession. Granted the weather did neutralize the potent New Orleans’ offense, but Brees looked awful. He consistently threw into double coverage and often behind his receivers. I hate to keep piling on Brees because he’s been fantastic all season, but the Saints’ defense played well enough to win. But he just wasn’t very good in the clutch.

Both the Bucs and Panthers won on Sunday, which means the Saints’ best hopes for a playoff spot is the Wild Card. And if the Falcons beat the Chargers, then even the Wild Card looks bleak.

Tampa, meanwhile, couldn’t separate itself in the NFC South, but they essentially control their own destiny. They still have to play the Panthers and Falcons one more time, but they also hold the series advantage against those teams, too. And with the way their defense is playing, they’re going to be tough come playoff time.

NFL Week 13 Primer

Jason CampbellSunday’s Best: Giants (10-1) at Redskins (7-4), 1:00 PM ET FOX
The game of the week is a toss up between this matchup and Steelers at Patriots. But I’ll go with a divisional rivalry any day of the week, although Pittsburgh-New England should be just as good. The Cowboys’ victory over the Seahawks on Thanksgiving put a lot of pressure on the Skins to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race. A win over the G-Men would keep Washington in the thick of things with Dallas, Carolina, Tampa and Atlanta for the Wild Card, while a loss wouldn’t push them out of things, but it certainly would be detrimental. One thing about the Redskins is that they play to the level of their competition. One week they’re losing to the Rams and allowing the Browns to hang with them, the next they’re crushing the Cowboys and Eagles on the road. But the Giants have been one of the best road teams over the last couple years and soundly beat the first place Cardinals last week in Arizona. The G-Men have proven that they’re the best team in the league, but they’re going to have their hands full against a physical Washington team in desperate need of a victory.

Upset Watch: Panthers (8-3) at Packers (5-6), 1:00 PM ET FOX
My pick of the Lions over the Buccaneers last week proved to be a disaster despite Detroit jumping out to a 17-0 lead. Considering the Packers are 3-point favorites, this technically doesn’t count as an upset and less you factor in the records. The Pack were embarrassed last Monday night by New Orleans, but the Panthers haven’t played well in weeks. Jake Delhomme has struggled in the first half of Carolina’s past three games and the once stout Panther defense is coming off a game in which they surrendered 45 points to the Falcons. This is a nice matchup for a struggling Green Bay defense, but they must stop the run. Carolina loves to pound the ball on the ground and if they’re successful, the play action pass opens up with Delhomme and Steve Smith. But if the Packers can sell out to stop the run, their secondary is good enough to at least contain Smith and limit him from making big plays. Aaron Rodgers should have relative success working the ball up the field against an average Carolina secondary, although Ryan Grant must keep them balanced offensively for Green Bay to notch a win and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Matt CasselIntriguing Matchup: Steelers (8-3) at Patriots (7-4), 4:15 PM ET CBS
Could this be a potential playoff preview? Matt Cassel has the Patriots’ offense back on track, but they’ll be tested Sunday against one of the best defenses in the league. It’s doubtful Cassel will be able to throw for over 400 yards for the third connective game, which means Bill Belichick must get his running game going or else Dick Lambeau can dial up plenty of blitzes to get the young signal caller out of rhythm. A win is so important for both teams. A victory for Pittsburgh would keep the Steelers at least one-game above Baltimore in the division, while the Pats need a win to keep pace with the Jets in the AFC East. This should be one of the most physical matchups of the week and I’m willing to bet it will be a low scoring affair.

Other Notable Games:
Broncos (6-5) at Jets (8-3), 4:15 PM ET CBS
The Jets are now the talk of the league after they upset the Titans last week, while Denver looks to put its embarrassing loss to the Raiders behind them.

Bears (6-5) at Vikings (6-5), 8:15 PM ET
First place in the NFC North is on the line Sunday night. Since they beat the Vikes earlier this season, Chicago would capture the tiebreaker between these two teams if they can come away with a victory.

Saints (6-5) at Buccaneers (8-3), 1:00 PM ET
A win for New Orleans and we can officially welcome them back to the NFC playoff party. But a loss would essentially put the Saints out of their misery.

Does anybody want to win the NFC North?

Aaron RodgersAfter waxing division rival Chicago 37-3 two weeks ago, one could have made the argument that the Green Bay Packers were on the upswing in the NFC North. But after their brilliant performance Monday night in New Orleans (a 51-29 Saints victory), it would be tough for anyone outside of Green Bay to back the Packers right now.

The Saints have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but the Packers did them a favor by not creating any pressure on Drew Brees. It’s a sound concept to drop eight men in coverage and rush only three down linemen on a third and 15, but if you give Brees 10 seconds to find a receiver, he’s probably going to convert. Green Bay’s defensive game plan last night was passive and conservative, and the result was disastrous. (Of course Aaron Rodgers’ three picks didn’t help matters, either.)

But back to the NFC North – can anyone say with any conviction that the Bears (currently in first) are the best team in the division? The Vikings have played better over the last month, but they could lose most of their defensive line once the league starts handing out suspensions to those players who were caught using performance-enhancing drugs.

Here are the remaining schedules for the Bears, Packers and Vikings:

Bears – at Vikings, vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, vs. Packers, at Texans
Vikings – vs. Bears, at Lions, at Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Giants
Packers – vs. Panthers, vs. Texans, at Jaguars, at Bears, vs. Lions

Out of those teams, the Packers have the easiest remaining schedule. Carolina hasn’t played well in weeks, the Texans, Jags and Lions are a mess and they just crushed the Bears two weeks ago. That said, they have to figure out a way to get more pressure from their front seven or they stand zero chance at making the postseason.

The Week 16 game between the Packers and Bears might determine the division.

10 Best and Worst NFL Coaches

Jason Whitlock of FOX Sports.com ranked the 10 current best and worst NFL head coaches. His list for top 10 worst had some intriguing names.

Top 10 Worst:

Andy Reid1. Eagles Andy Reid: Twice this season Reid has taken the game out of the hands of Donovan McNabb and tried to win at crunch time with his running game. Here’s a coach who loves to throw on damn near every down except when the game is on the line. I also blame Reid for the Eagles failing to trade a second-round draft pick for Tony Gonzalez. Other than the one season with Terrell Owens, McNabb has made a living throwing the ball to the James Thrashes of the world. It’s ridiculous. I’m convinced the Eagles don’t want to win it all.

6. Packers Mike McCarthy: With Brett Favre at the helm, the Packers were one play from the Super Bowl. With Favre run off to New York, the Packers are 4-5 and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. You have to blame McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson for Favre’s absence. Aaron Rodgers has been pretty damn good. He’s not the problem. Apparently he’s not the answer either. McCarthy wanted to be the big hero for letting Favre go, well now McCarthy and Thompson look like fools.

7. 49ers Mike Singletary: The end of the “Monday Night Football” contest against the Cardinals is all the evidence you need to understand why I wanted Singletary to pass on the San Francisco job. Singletary has a chance to be a great NFL coach. Unfortunately, he took a head-coaching job before he was ready. Singletary can’t manage the clock. All the whining about the refs spotting the ball wrong or too quickly just points to Singletary’s inexperience and the folly of having Mike Martz as an unsupervised offensive coordinator.

10. Saints Sean Payton: Someone has to take the blame for New Orleans’ 4-5 record. I don’t have a real problem with Payton. It’s impossible to win in the Big Easy. There are just too many distractions in NO to build a successful football franchise.

Whether you like Whitlock or not (I can take or leave him), you have to appreciate how he didn’t just rank his top 10 worst head coaches because they were on the hot seat or list the ones that have terrible teams. As much as Singletary deserves a shot to be a head coach, he and Martz screwed the pooch on Monday night and deserve to be called out for it. And while criticizing Reid is nothing new for the media, Whitlock has some balls ranking him as the worst coach in the league, especially considering the Eagles could still viably make the playoffs this season.

I don’t know if it’s fair of Whitlock to say that Aaron Rodgers isn’t the answer though. Remember, it’s only his first year as a starter and he’s been phenomenal.

Five best and worst NFL offseason acquisitions from 2008

Michael TurnerThe 2008 NFL Season has entered its second half and while some teams are rejoicing over the moves they made this past summer in either signing or trading for players, others are wondering what the hell they were thinking.

Below are five of the best acquisitions from the 2008 NFL offseason, as well as five of the worst. Granted, these moves might look differently at the end of the season or in a year or two, but for now, these are the best of the best and the worst of the worst from the 2008 offseason.

Five Best Offseason Acquisitions:

1. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons handed “The Burner” a six-year, $34.5 million contract in early March and while some pundits loved the move, others thought it was too much for the unproven Turner, who had spent his entire career backing up LaDainian Tomlinson. But the signing has paid huge dividends for a Falcons team that ranks second in the league in rushing thanks to his bruising running style. He’s formed a nice “Thunder and Lighting” combo with Jerious Norwood and more importantly, has taken a lot of pressure off rookie Matt Ryan by demanding opponents to focus on taking away the run. He hasn’t fared well against top defenses this season, which is a concern, but outside of that he’s been everything Atlanta had hoped for. He has rushed for 890 yards on 203 carries and has scored seven times.

2. Asante Samuel, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
There was a lot of talk last offseason that Samuel would never live up to the hype that surrounded him in New England. But through 10 games this season, it’s hard to argue that the former Patriot hasn’t lived up to his big play billing. Samuel has recorded three interceptions on the year and has fit into Jim Johnson’s defense better than most expected. He’s not a shutdown corner, but he plays well in zone and rarely gets burned deep. He has also helped the Eagles rank sixth in the league in pass defense and ninth overall in yardage allowed. He was pricey at just over $57 million for six years, but so far Samuel has been worth the money.


Read the rest after the jump...

Kerry Collins For MVP?

Kerry CollinsWhile I was at the gym this morning, I caught some NFL highlights on ESPN including some of the taped commentary from Chris Berman and Tom Jackson. For the record, no one recaps games better than those two guys, not even the 11 or 12 characters on NBC, who just keep trying to outwit each other. Anyway, Jackson said something really, really intriguing. Something to the effect of that while no one is saying it out loud, you can make a case for Titans’ quarterback Kerry Collins for NFL MVP after nine games.

Now think about that for a minute. Yes, it’s a strange year in the NFL, and yes, the Titans are 9-0 and way out in front of the AFC pack. But when you first think about it, Collins in MVP conversations sounds ridiculous. He is somewhere toward the bottom of the pack in passing yards, with 1525 (169 per game in 8-plus games), with just 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions and a QB rating of just 78.8. But here’s the thing. Drew Brees is putting up Tom Brady/Peyton Manning type numbers, with 2985 yards, 17 TDs and 10 picks. But Brees’ Saints are 4-5 and bringing up the rear in the AFC South. Jay Cutler is second in passing yards with 2616, and his team is 5-4 (and leading a pathetic AFC West). In fact, in pure yardage, you have to scroll down to number 10 (Brett Favre) to find a QB with more than five wins. Eli Manning of the 8-1 Giants is 12th and has a QB rating of 88.8.

So throw the stats aside, and think purely in terms of MVP for a minute. Manning and Brandon Jacobs deserve consideration, because they lead an 8-1 team in the NFL’s toughest division. But the Giants have a whole team of great players and the G-men would still be very competitive if either of those guys missed a game or two. The Panthers are 7-2, but have also had many contributors. And among the teams that are 6-3 (Jets, Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Redskins, Bucs and Falcons), you can make a case for a handful of players–Favre, Clinton Portis, and Matt Ryan. But even Ryan has had help from Michael Turner and Roddy White and John Abraham.

Then look at the Titans themselves. Aside from Collins, you have LenDale White and Chris Johnson piling up yards behind a very underrated offensive line. You have Albert Haynesworth absolutely terrorizing offensive coordinators and Cortland Finnegan playing out of his mind. All of them Pro Bowl possibilities, but not really MVP material. Collins, though, stepped in for Vince Young and has been a steady hand leading a very talented team to an undefeated record so far. You can’t say the Titans would be better than maybe 5-4 with Young as the starter right now. 9-0 with the veteran Collins is the only number that should be mentioned in MVP talk at this point, and for that I have to say Tom Jackson is on to something.

Bookmark this page for when the real talk begins, and don’t forget you heard it here second.

Matt Ryan has made the Falcons a contender

Matt RyanStop hesitating and say it: The Atlanta Falcons are a playoff contender. Their 6-3 record isn’t a fluke. They’re that good.

Yes, three of their victories are against the Lions, Chiefs and Raiders. They’ve also gone into Lambeau and beaten the Packers, topped the Kyle Orton-led Bears and in their latest victory, crushed the Saints 34-20 on Sunday. (The only reason the score was that close is because New Orleans scored on a fluke “Hail Mary” pass as time expired.)

Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs) has lifted the Falcons to contender-status, but it’s not just him. Michael Turner was a fantastic free agent signing. Jerious Norwood can take one to the house every time he touches the ball. Roddy White has developed into a true No. 1 receiver. Michael Jenkins is finally living up to his first round status. And the defense has been much, much better than people expected.

Speaking of the defense, they intercepted Drew Brees three times on Sunday and returned one of those picks for a touchdown. First-year head coach Mike Smith has completely turned Atlanta’s defense around and the players have bought into his philosophy of playing physical.

As for the Saints, little is going right for them. Injuries have started to mount and at 4-5, they’re two-three games behind every team in a stacked NFC South. Frustration is starting to boil over, too, as cameras caught Drew Brees screaming at Jeremy Shockey on the sidelines on Sunday. Not that Brees was out of line – Shockey looks like he’s already given up. He’s not as involved in the offense as he thought he would be and it looks like he’s not even running full routes any more. There’s no question that Billy Miller is the Saints’ best tight end right now.

These are two teams heading in vastly different directions.

Week 10 NFL Primer

Donovan McNabbSunday’s Best: Giants (7-1) at Eagles (5-3)
If you don’t like a good ‘ol fashion NFC East battle than you don’t like America. The Giants need a win to stay two games up on the Redskins in the division while the Eagles need a victory just to keep pace. Neither team has huge injury concerns so we’re about to see the best each squad has to offer. The G-Men swept the series between these two teams last year and sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times, which tied an NFL record. But the Eagles have won three straight and have averaged 31 points per game in those victories. Keeping McNabb healthy and upright has been the key, which will again be a main concern for the Eagles against a stout Giants’ pass rush. Perhaps no team in the league plays better on the road than Tom Coughlin’s bunch, but Philadelphia is always a tough environment to play in and the Giants will look to neutralize Jim Johnson’s blitz-happy defense by running the back effectively with Brandon Jacobs. Neither team turns the ball over very much, so this game will likely come down to which squad forces their opponent out of their game plan first.

Upset Watch: Seahawks at Dolphins, 1:00 PM ET
An easier upset to call might be Detroit over Jacksonville with how bad the Jaguars have looked the past two weeks. But I’m willing to bet the Jags can handle Daunte Culpepper much better than they did Ryan Fitzpatrick last Sunday. There’s everything to love about the Dolphins and nothing about the Seahawks, but that’s exactly why I like Mike Holmgren’s bunch this week. Typically teams that travel from the West to East don’t fare well, but the Hawks were just in Florida to play the Bucs so they’re used to the travel preparations. Miami has been the talk of the NFL the past two weeks, which means they’re in uncharted territory. They’re due for a letdown and while the Seahawks are missing six starters and have zero offense, the underdog has covered the last six games involving the Dolphins. Okay, so Miami might win. But the Hawks cover the 9-point spread after falling behind early.

Rex GrossmanIntriguing matchup: Titans at Bears, 1:00 PM ET
Even though pundits have been impressed with the Titans’ start, you get the feeling that everyone is waiting for them to stumble eventually. They aren’t blowing teams out by any means and narrowly escaped defeat last week at home against Green Bay. Chicago starts a pissed off Rex Grossman this weekend and while that normally spells trouble, he did rally the Bears last week against Detroit. Word is that it’s supposed to snow in Chicago this Sunday, which only plays into the Bears’ hands. They’re so banged up o