Tyreke Evans will be named the NBA’s 2009-10 Rookie of the Year later this week, Sactown Royalty has learned.
The announcement is expected Thursday or Friday. The Kings nor the NBA have announced Evans’s victory, and the team has not yet alerted the media of a press conference later this week.
I think this is a two-man race between Evans and Jennings. Evans’ numbers are better than Curry’s and his team is a little better, so if we’re going to go with a good player on a bad team, it should be Evans.
As for Jennings, his case depends how much importance we place on a team’s record and how responsible the player is for that record. It’s funny — a good record is crucial in winning the league MVP, but for ROY, it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. Why is that?
In the end, I think Evans will win Rookie of the Year. Given the history of the award, if a player clearly has the superior numbers, winning just doesn’t matter. That’s the case here.
Evans averaged 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists to become the first rookie since LeBron James to average 20-5-5 in his rookie season. (Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan are the only other players to accomplish this feat.)
Both Evans and Curry posted eye-popping numbers, but did any rookie have a bigger impact on the 2009-10 NBA season than Brandon Jennings? Even though his FG% fell off a cliff, he still posted pretty good numbers, and guided the upstart Bucks to the #6 playoff spot in the East.
Based on the criteria that picked previous award winners, Evans is very deserving. But when we look back on this season’s rookie class, I think we’ll remember Jennings’ leadership, Evans’ 20-5-5, Curry’s stretch run and Blake Griffin’s knee injury, in that order.
It’s that time of year again. Let’s try to figure out who will win this year’s Rookie of the Year…
Brandon Jennings jumped out in the ROY race with a 22-4-6 average in October and November, while shooting 43% from the field and 50% from three-point land. This included an epic 55-point outing against the Golden State Warriors in which Jennings hit 21 of 34 shots, including 7-for-8 from behind the arc. Since then, he is averaging 14-3-6 and is shooting just 35% from the field and 36% from 3PT. He has struggled with scoring from inside the arc, but he leads all rookies in assists and has a pretty nice assist-to-turnover ratio — 2.41, but he has posted a 2.72 ratio since the start of December. Maybe most importantly, the Bucks are 41-32 and are in the #5 spot in the East.
Tyreke Evans overtook Jennings with a 22-5-5 December and hasn’t looked back. On the season, he is averaging 20-5-6, and is shooting 46% from the field. He’s on the verge of joining LeBron James, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only players to average 20-5-5 in their rookie seasons. However, the Kings have the 6th-worst record in the league and have been out of the playoff hunt for some time. This is both good and bad for Evans’ stats. On one hand, the Kings are so bad that he has to be the clear focal point of the offense — unlike Jennings, he doesn’t have to get the ball to Andrew Bogut or John Salmons — but the fact that the Kings are so bad means that defenses can focus on stopping him.
And then there’s Stephen Curry, whom NBA.com’s Drew Packham lists first in his rookie rankings. Since the start of December, he has averaged 18-5-6, while shooting 47% from the field and 44% from long range. And he keeps getting better. In February and March, he averaged 21-5-7. But at 21-52, the Warriors are even worse than the Kings. In fact, Golden State is tied for second third in fewest wins this season.
One thing that pure averages don’t account for is a team’s pace (i.e. the average # of possessions a team has during the course of a game). Is it fair to compare Jennings’ numbers to Curry’s when the Bucks are #18 in overall pace and the Warriors are #1? Using the league average of 95.15 possessions, here is a look at the pace-adjusted numbers for each player, along with John Hollinger’s PER:
All due respect to Mr. Packham, I think this is a two-man race between Evans and Jennings. Evans’ numbers are better than Curry’s and his team is a little better, so if we’re going to go with a good player on a bad team, it should be Evans.
As for Jennings, his case depends how much importance we place on a team’s record and how responsible the player is for that record. It’s funny — a good record is crucial in winning the league MVP, but for ROY, it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. Why is that?
In the end, I think Evans will win Rookie of the Year. Given the history of the award, if a player clearly has the superior numbers, winning just doesn’t matter. That’s the case here.
In his NBA Awards Watch, ESPN’s Maurice Brooks notes that Tyreke Evans is on pace to join LeBron James, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only first-year players to average 20 points, five rebounds and five assists in a season. (Note: Evans is actually averaging 20.5-4.9-5.4, but he averaged 5.8 rebounds in February, so if he keeps that up, he shouldn’t have any problem averaging five boards a game.)
Unfortunately, this fine play has not translated to wins. The Kings have lost 25 of their last 32 games, and are now just 20-40 on the season.
Still, it makes me wonder how a 2009 NBA Draft Re-Do would go. The last one I saw still had Blake Griffin going #1 with Evans going #2. Would the Clippers really pass on a player like Evans — who really could have been named to the All-Star Game in his rookie season — for Griffin, knowing that the former Sooner was going to miss his first year with a knee injury? Griffin still projects to be a star, but Evans is the proverbial “bird in the hand” at this point, isn’t he?
In his ROY race, Brooks ranks Stephen Curry second (22-5-7 in Feb) and Darren Collison third (22-4-8 in Feb). Brandon Jennings (11-4-6, 31% shooting in Feb) has lost his touch and is ranked fourth. DeJuan Blair (11-5, 60% shooting in Feb) comes in fifth, but if Antonio McDyess misses any time with a sore knee, Blair should get some extra minutes.
10. Six teams pass on DeJuan Blair IN THE SECOND ROUND!
When I first heard that there were concerns about Blair’s knees, I thought he might fall into the bottom third of the first round. Even if the guy is missing ligaments in his knees, he was still one of the best rebounders in all of college basketball last season and he ate up #2 pick Hasheem Thabeet in Connecticut. When Blair fell into the second round I was stunned as the Kings, Wizards, Blazers, Nuggets, Pistons and Grizzlies all passed on Blair. A second round pick doesn’t require the same kind of financial commitment as a first round pick, so there’s very little downside if the guy doesn’t pan out. Blair fell and fell, right into the inviting arms of the Spurs, who will be lucky to have him on the roster for the foreseeable future.
Teams just could get their heads around the fact that Blair has no ACLs in his knees. While I sort of understand not wanting to commit first round money, it doesn’t make any sense for the aforementioned teams to pass on him in the second round, where there is very little financial investment. This goes double for the two “contenders” on that list — I’m looking at you Portland and Denver — who should be worried about the short term and not the long term impact of their second round picks. Blair would give the Nuggets some much needed toughness, and he’d sure help in Portland, where half the front line is out for the season with injury.
That move is almost impossible to guard without double-teaming. He’s so good at getting to the basket, so when he stops and spins, it’s tough for the defender to change direction quickly enough to properly contest the jumper.
He’s currently the frontrunner for the ROY, and it’s doubtful that Blake Griffin is going to get enough games in to catch him. Brandon Jennings and teammate Omri Casspi are the only other serious candidates at this point. Since Michael Redd is starting to play well in Milwaukee and Casspi is Evans’s teammate, it is going to be tough for either guy to usurp him. It would probably take an injury or a month-long slump to turn the tide of the ROY race.
1. Tyreke Evans, Kings: After missing three games with a bum ankle, he returned to the Kings’ lineup in Saturday’s loss to the Mavs. He didn’t shoot well but provided his usual goodies in the rebound and assist columns. (Last week: 1)
2. Brandon Jennings, Bucks: Critics point out that his game slumped a little in December. Considering how well he played in November, averaging 22.1 ppg, he can afford to slip up some more and still not finish any lower than second in the Rookie of the Year voting. (Last week: 2)
3. Omri Casspi, Kings: Kudos to the Kings’ front office for drafting not one but two studs. He is averaging more than 18 points and eight boards while shooting almost 50 percent from 3-point range in his last five games. (Last week: 5)
No arguments here. I think Evans’s strong December pushed him ahead of Jennings, who has tailed off a bit. Jennings averaged 22-4-6 in November and 17-3-6 in December.
And Casspi is also impressive. When was the last time the same team had two strong ROY candidates?
The Sacramento Kings were down by 35 POINTS in the middle of the third quarter and rallied to beat the Bulls, 102-98, in the biggest comeback in team history. Tyreke Evans led the Kings with 23 points and eight boards, and also dished out three assists. He’s definitely making a push for ROY — right now, it’s neck and neck with the Bucks’ Brandon Jennings.
The surprising Kings are 13-14, and have won four of their last six, including back-to-back road games against the Bucks and Bulls. Oddly enough, they’ve kept their head above water without Kevin Martin. It will be interesting to see how he fits in the lineup now that Evans is thriving at off guard.
This is very bad news for the once-likely Rookie of the Year. (LA Times)
Clippers’ rookie power forward Blake Griffin, the No. 1 overall draft choice in June, has a stress fracture of the left patella, or kneecap, and could miss as much as six weeks of the season.
Tests revealed the fracture and a second opinion later in the day backed up the results and conclusion of the first doctor.
A Clippers spokesperson said it is a non-displaced fracture. But the team will take a conservative approach, meaning Griffin could be out of action until December. On top of the fracture, Griffin is also dealing with tendinitis of the left knee and has been said to have been playing with some measure of pain.
He suffered the stress fracture in the team’s final exhibition game against New Orleans on Friday, wincing after he came down on a dunk late in the third quarter.
The Clippers (wisely) shipped Zach Randolph to Memphis to clear minutes for Griffin, so they are suddenly a little thin on the front line. Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby will likely see an increase in playing time, and DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith should see a big jump in minutes as well.
With Griffin sidelined, the race for Rookie of the Year is pretty wide open, though I have to give Tyreke Evans frontrunner status for the time being. He is going to get a ton of minutes and should be immediately effective at the NBA level. The Bucks’ Brandon Jennings is my darkhorse pick.
Derrick Rose, Bulls: Among rookies, he is second in scoring and minutes per game and first in assists. He was handed a ton of responsibility immediately and handled it all with grace and professionalism. And though he went No. 1 overall, he probably exceeded the expectations of most people.
Russell Westbrook, Thunder: Only rookie to rank in the top 10 among rookies in scoring, rebounding and assists. He is also second in steals and first in free throws made and attempted. He willed his team to some terrific wins and showed incredible promise.
O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies: First among rookies in scoring and minutes, and is already considered one of the league’s top jump-shooters. He also competes hard on defense and appears to be very professional.
Kevin Love, Timberwolves: Already one of the league’s top rebounders, he is competing with Speights for the rookie PER crown. He is also a smart interior defender and should be a strong starter for years to come.
Brook Lopez, Nets: He’s been nothing short of a revelation. One of the top free-throw shooting centers in basketball, he is an excellent scorer, rebounder and shot-blocker. He has been probably the most productive rookie of the class, and he can become a cornerstone center, which is one of the most valuable positions.
It’s hard to argue with any of these choices. I was a little surprised to see that neither Rudy Fernandez or Michael Beasly made the first team, but both players made Thorpe’s second team. Thorpe also hands out awards for All-Defense and All-Offense, as well as a few other miscellaneous awards.
John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating is a nice way to compare players without having to account for the number of minutes each guy gets. It’s an efficiency statistic, so just about everything is included. A PER of 15.00 is average for the position.
Let’s take a look at the top rookies. I’m only going to list guys that are getting more than 20 minutes per game…
1. Kevin Love, T-Wolves PER: 16.39
Surprised? I am…a little. I really liked Love coming out of college, but he got off to a slow start and the trade Minnesota made (sending O.J. Mayo) to Memphis wasn’t looking too good early on. He’s not shooting the ball well (41%), but he’s rebounding like a champ (8.4 rpg in 22.7 mpg).
2. Greg Oden, Blazers PER: 16.35
Technically, Oden is still a rookie since he missed all of last season due to injury. After Love, he has the second best rebound rate of all first-year players.
3. Brook Lopez, Nets PER: 16.26
Rebounding is the stat that most easily translates from college to the pros, so it’s no surprise that three good rebounders top this list. In 29.5 minutes, Lopez is averaging 11.4 points and 8.2 rebounds, and he has more blocks per minute than Oden.
4. Rudy Fernandez, Blazers PER: 16.25
Rudy has had no problem adjusting to the NBA game. His three-point shooting 39% is outstanding and he’s averaging 11.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 26.5 minutes per game. Plus, he was even voted into the Slam Dunk Contest as well.
5. Marc Gasol, Grizzlies PER: 15.40
The other Gasol is getting starters minutes (30.6) in Memphis and is averaging 11.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
6. Russell Westbrook, Thunder PER: 15.74
In January, Westbrook is averaging 15.7 points, 6.2 assists and 4.8 rebounds in 34.9 minutes of action. He got off to a slow start, but seems to be figuring things out now.
7. O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies PER: 15.66
Of all the guys on this list, Mayo might be the guy that asked to do the most. He got off to a blistering start, but defenses are adjusting and his numbers are falling.
8. Derrick Rose, Bulls PER: 15.45
He and Mayo play more than 37 minutes per game, which is by far tops on this list. It’s hard to argue with the 16.9 points and 6.4 assists that Rose produces every night. Point guard is arguably the toughest position in the NBA to learn as a rookie, and this guy sure looks like a keeper.
9. Michael Beasley, Heat PER: 15.23
Beasley is getting better as the season wears on. He’s averaging 14.9 points (on 50% shooting) and 6.0 rebounds in January. He’s also as good as expected from long range (39%).
10. D.J. Augustin, Bobcats PER: 13.75
It’s not easy being a point guard under Larry Brown, but Augustin is getting big minutes (28.4) and is producing 12.1 points and 4.1 assists per contest. His shooting (40%) is pretty suspect, though he’s very solid from long range (39%).
Notes:
- Marreese Speights leads all rookies in PER (20.44) but only plays 15.9 minutes per game.
- Anthony Morrow and George Hill just missed the minutes per game cutoff. Otherwise, they would have been on the list.
- Given how tough it is to play point guard in the NBA, Derrick Rose still gets my vote for Rookie of the Year. The Bulls are asking him to play huge minutes, which is going to take its toll over the course of the season.
The NBA season is less than a month old, but that’s not going to stop me from handing out some early-season awards…
The most outstanding rookie award goes to…Rudy Fernandez.
Derrick Rose is probably the front-runner for the ROY award, but Rudy has been better thus far. His PER is an eye-popping 23.89 (Rose’s is 17.78), which is second-best amongst all shooting guards, and it seems like night after night he’s making a highlight-reel play. Fernandez is averaging 15.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists, while shooting 48% from the field and 46% from long range. To top it off, he’s nailing 93% of his free throws and is registering 1.3 steals per game. His fine play is allowing the Blazers to be patient with Jerryd Bayless by running Brandon Roy at he point and Fernandez at off guard. Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Jason Thompson and Kevin Love deserve honorable mention.
The league MVP goes to…LeBron James.
Cleveland is 6-2 and that projects to a 62-win season. If the Cavs can accomplish that, LeBron is going to run away with the MVP award. He’s averaging 29.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists, and is shooting 49% from the field and 78% from the free throw line (which would be a career-high). A case could be made for Kobe Bryant, but he has a much better supporting cast and LeBron’s numbers are better across the board. (Besides, I don’t think voters would want to give Kobe back-to-back MVP awards.) Paul Pierce is a possibility, but he’s only shooting 41% from the field this season. Chris Paul is having an even better year than last season’s remarkable jump, but the Hornets are just 4-3 thus far. Atlanta’s Joe Johnson might be LeBron’s biggest challenger early in the season, but King James has him beat in virtually every statistical category. LeBron it is.
The “I’m the real reason the Bucks traded away Mo Williams” award goes to…Ramon Sessions.
Even though he’s playing fewer minutes (barely) than starter Luke Ridnour, Sessions is averaging more points (15.6 to 10.6), steals (1.1 to 0.9), has a better assist-to-turnover ratio (2.7 to 1.9), a better FG% (48% to 34%) and a better 3PT% (40% to 27%). I don’t think the Bucks are going to be too heartbroken when Ridnour’s contract is up after next season because it looks like Sessions, the former second-round pick, is Milwaukee’s point guard of the future. He’s in the final year of his rookie deal, so it’s going to be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets next summer.
The “maybe it wasn’t such a good idea to come to L.A.” award goes to…Baron Davis.
First, he thinks he’s going to get to play with Elton Brand, but Brand bolts for Philly. Now the Clippers are 1-7 and are losing games by a league-worst 13.4 points per game. Their defense is bad, but their offense is worse. They have scored the second-fewest points per game (88.3) and have the second-worst field goal percentage (41%). For his part, Davis hasn’t done much to help the cause. He’s shooting 37% from the field and just 26% from long range. If this keeps up, the Clippers will be out of the playoff race by Christmas.
The “boy, Devin Harris and those two first round picks are looking really good right now” award goes to…Mark Cuban.
Last year, when the Dallas owner pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Devin Harris and two first round picks to the Nets for a 34 year-old Jason Kidd, I was very skeptical. It was a longshot that the trade would pan out, as it was debatable at the time of the trade whether or not Kidd was even better than Harris. Certainly, Harris had a lot more upside, and his stint in New Jersey has allowed him to flourish. The first of the two picks was used on Ryan Anderson, and he is playing pretty well in limited minutes this season. The second pick is an unprotected first rounder in 2010, which could be a lottery pick if the Mavs can’t get things straightened out. They are 2-5 and their top four players – Kidd (35), Dirk Nowitzki (30), Jason Terry (31) and Josh Howard (28) – are all at least 28 years-old. Barring an injury to one of these guys, the Mavs will probably be fighting for a playoff spot in April, but that’s not exactly what Cuban had in mind.
The Sacramento Kings were down by 35 POINTS in the middle of the third quarter and rallied to beat the Bulls, 102-98, in the biggest comeback in team history. Tyreke Evans led the Kings with 23 points and eight boards, and also dished out three assists. He’s definitely making a push for ROY — right now, it’s neck and neck with the Bucks’ Brandon Jennings. 
