No one really knows what LeBron will do this summer, not even LeBron. But Mitch Lawrence of the NY Daily News says you can cross three teams off the list.

First, the Clippers…

James isn’t playing second fiddle to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, even if Clippers GM Mike Dunleavy traded off Marcus Camby, Al Thornton, Sebastian Telfair and got rid of Ricky Davis to create a maximum salary slot for the express purpose of landing James.

Kobe is turning 32 this season and isn’t going to play forever. He has already played 1,158 games and his knees are eventually going to give out, so LeBron wouldn’t be playing “second fiddle” for long, if at all. LeBron might see the taking of L.A. and the resurrecting of a long-maligned franchise as a worthy challenge. Will LeBron sign with the Clippers? Probably not, but not because of Kobe. The Clippers’ best player, Baron Davis, is already 30 and injury-prone, and owner Donald Sterling doesn’t have a very good reputation.

Next up, the Nets…

James might be tight with Net minority owner Jay-Z, but he’s not coming to play in Newark for two years, which could turn into three or four seasons, depending on what happens to the Nets’ Atlantic Yards project.

It’s not like Cleveland is the greatest place to live, either. Though I’m sure the status of the Atlantic Yards project would weigh heavily on LeBron’s decision to play for the Nets. The Nets have a few young pieces — Brook Lopez and Devin Harris — and LeBron might like the challenge of turning around a 10-win franchise.

Lastly, the Heat…

James isn’t moving down to South Beach to team with Dwyane Wade. They both need to dominate the ball and the Heat wants to import a big man to pair with Wade.

Really, Miami would pass up LeBron for a big man? Come on. The ball dominating thing I understand, but LeBron and Wade have shown the ability to play together and LeBron is fine with deferring some of the time. I think they’d actually fit really well together, kind of like Michael Jordan (Wade) and Scottie Pippen (LeBron).

Here’s a shocker — a New York writer thinks that LeBron might end up with the Knicks:

So, heading into July, the Knicks are going to be the only team that can bring James together with Bosh. Is that a big deal for James? All we know is, when he was asked at last year’s All-Star weekend in Phoenix, what one member of the Olympic team he wanted to play with in the future, he picked the Raptors’ big man.

“Being around him last summer (in the Olympics), I got to see how smart he is,” James said. “His basketball I.Q. is unbelievable. He’s a very, very good player. Sometimes you look at him and you say, “He’s not that strong or he’s not the fastest guy out there.’ But the way he approaches the game … his mindset really helps him dominate a basketball game.”

Maybe James was just blowing smoke. But maybe he’s already figured out where he’s going and who’s coming with him.

Oooh. Provocative stuff.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The trade deadline is just a week away, so I thought it would be fun to play puppet master and propose a few blockbuster trades that should happen, but probably won’t. Let’s start with the least likely and work our way to the most credible. (Honestly, I had this idea before I hit the ESPN NBA page this morning and saw Chad Ford’s similar piece. Don’t worry, we don’t suggest any of the same trades.) Click on the link to see each trade in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Amare Stoudemire for David Lee
To make the salaries work, the Knicks would also include Jared Jeffries and Chris Duhon in the deal.
Why the Knicks should do it: Stoudemire had his best years under Mike D’Antoni and would welcome a reunion. He’s also a big name that would encourage another superstar to join the franchise this summer, and he’s more likely to re-sign with the Knicks because New York is the media capital of the world. They’d also benefit from clearing Jeffries’ salary from the books, leaving around $13 million in cap space to sign a big name (assuming Stoudemire does NOT opt out of the final year of his deal).
Why the Suns should do it: David Lee is a great fit for the Suns’ up-tempo system and he’s almost as good as Stoudemire (PER: 22.1 vs. Amare’s 20.2) at about 60% of the cost. Phoenix would pay a little more this season and have to take on Jeffries’ contract, but they’d have a young All-Star caliber power forward to build around. If they stand pat and Amare opts out, they stand to lose him with nothing to show for it, as they only would have around $4 million in cap space if Amare bolts.
Why it won’t happen: Phoenix won’t want to take on Jeffries’ contract for next season without a commitment from Lee to re-sign for a reasonable salary. He was asking for $10 million per season last summer, but his price is probably going up after making a push for the All-Star Game in 2010.

2. Kevin Martin for Carlos Boozer
The Kings would also include Ime Udoka to make the salaries work.
Why the Jazz should do it: They could use another scorer in the backcourt and there’s a possibility that they’ll soon lose Ronnie Brewer. Moving Boozer will free up minutes for Paul Millsap, who played at an All-Star level with Boozer sidelined last season. The Jazz would also save almost two million this season, inching them closer to the luxury tax threshold ($69.9 million).
Why the Kings should do it: The Tyreke Evans-Kevin Martin marriage is apparently not working (though I keep suggesting the Kings try Evans at small forward), and the Kings need a good big man. Even though he’s a bit injury-prone, Boozer is just 28 and is in his prime. He’d be a great sidekick for Evans, and the Maloofs have deep enough pockets to pay him this offseason.
Why it won’t happen: The Jazz are under the impression that they are a real contender this season, though a 15-point loss to a Kobe-less Laker team in Salt Lake City should put a damper on that thinking. Still, if an injury were to strike one of the Lakers’ stars, the Jazz would be one of the teams that could sneak into the Finals. The Kings wouldn’t do this deal because they’d be worried about Boozer bolting after the season — and that’s a real possibility. That’s not all bad, though. If Boozer didn’t re-sign, the Kings would have an extra $10 million in cap space this summer, giving them a total of $20 million to spend.

3. Tracy McGrady & Kyle Lowry for Andre Iguodala & Samuel Dalembert
Why the Rockets should do it: T-Mac and his contract are collecting dust and even though Iggy’s contract is hard to swallow, with what he brings at the defensive end, he’s probably worth it. If/when Yao comes back, the Rockets would be a legit contender. In the meantime, the addition of Iggy and Dalembert would probably be enough to push the Rockets into the playoffs.
Why the Sixers should do it: I’d be leery of trading away Iguodala, but the financial windfall ($69 million over four years). Lowry is a starter-quality point guard (something the Sixers could really use, as Lou Williams is more suited for a combo role off the bench) and if T-Mac is 75% of the player he once was, they could re-sign him on the cheap. If neither player panned out, the Sixers would suddenly have about $10 million in cap space for the summer.
Why it won’t happen: If T-Mac stinks, the Sixers would have to explain to its fans why it essentially gave away its best player for a washed-up has-been.

4. Caron Butler for Michael Beasley
Why the Heat should do it: Dwyane Wade has grumbled about Beasley’s defense this season and would probably see Butler as an upgrade, increasing the likelihood that he’d agree to re-sign. The Heat think Beasley is a power forward, which wouldn’t jibe with their plans to add Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer this summer. Even with Butler’s salary on the books for next season, the Heat would still have $15 million in cap space to sign another superstar.
Why the Wizards should do it: (I think) Washington is rebuilding, and Butler is 29 years old — probably too old to build around. Beasley is a 21-year-old power forward who is averaging 16-7 in his sophomore season. He’s also from Maryland, and I’m not sure if playing closer to home would be a good thing or a bad thing. He has seemingly cleaned up his act and has a ton of potential. Chalmers is a young rotation-quality player on the cheap.
Why it won’t happen: The Heat and Wizards are in the same division and it’s unlikely that Washington would want to increase the chances that the Heat can hold onto Wade, even if acquiring Beasley would help them in the long run.

5. Troy Murphy for Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson
Why the Cavs should do it: Cleveland’s desire to add a “stretch 4″ is well documented. They could probably do the same deal with Washington (for Jamison), but if the Wizards were to acquire Beasley, they probably wouldn’t want Hickson, who plays the same position. Murphy is a great rebounder who is also one of the best shooting big men in the game. He’d be a great complement for Shaq and LeBron on the front line, though his foot speed could be a problem against Rashard Lewis.
Why the Pacers should do it: They’re going nowhere and Hickson is a good looking prospect at power forward. With Murphy’s salary off the books, the Pacers would only be about $5 million over the salary cap heading into the 2010-11 season.
Why it won’t happen: The Cavs have been reluctant to give up Hickson in trades, but they could simply be posturing to get the best possible deal next week. They made the mistake of not making a move at the trade deadline last season and with the way they’re running away in the East right now, the same thing could happen this season.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

John Hollinger sure thinks so.

Let’s look ourselves in the mirror, fellow media members: We’ve all given the guy a free pass because of his amazing run to six straight conference finals and blithely ignored the fact that he’s screwed up a hundred ways from Tuesday since he decided to whack Flip Saunders after the 2008 conference finals.

Check out the résumé and find me a correct decision. Just one. Fire Saunders? Wrong. Hire Michael Curry? Wrong. Trade Chauncey Billups? Wrong. Extend Richard Hamilton? Wrong. Sign Kwame Brown? Wrong. Go after Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva? Wrong again.

In two years, the Pistons have gone from one of the best teams in basketball to among the worst. They stink, they’re capped out, and they don’t have much in the way of young talent; for all we know, in two years they’re going to be the Pittsburgh Pisces or the Seattle Grunge or something. If Isiah Thomas or Rob Babcock had done this, we’d have buried them alive by now, so it’s only fair for us to point out that regardless of his previous track record, Dumars is on a two-year losing streak of McHalian proportions.

No arguments here, though I don’t know that keeping Flip Saunders as your head coach is ever the right move.

Let’s not forget that it was Dumars who picked Darko Milicic #2 overall back in 2003. The next three picks? Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Ouch. Dumars got a pass on that pick because of the aforementioned six straight Conference Finals and the fact that the Pistons won the title in 2004. But the Billups trade and his performance in last summer’s free agency understandably has a lot of Piston fans scratching their heads.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Bosh or Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO

3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO

4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)

5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO

7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.

8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO

9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.

10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.

Honorable Mention:

Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.

Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.

Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.

Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).

Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.

Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)

Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

Per the Charlotte Observer…

The Charlotte Bobcats and Raymond Felton’s agent both confirmed this morning that Felton has signed the one-year, $5.5 million qualifying offer for this season, which will make him an unrestricted free agent next summer.

This amounts to an acknowledgement that the team and Felton couldn’t work out a long-term deal. Agent Kevin Bradbury said Felton isn’t upset by that and wants to remain in Charlotte.

The solid play of D.J. Augustin has made Felton expendable in Charlotte. Felton averaged 14.2 points and 6.7 assists last year, but shot less than 41% from the field and less than 29% from long range.

When restricted free agents are unable to work out a long-term deal, it’s a sign that they will be moving to a different zip code within a year. We’ll see if that holds true for Felton.

Trevor Ariza is featured in the most recent issue of ESPN The Magazine and in an article written by Sam Alipour, he discusses how he came to sign with Houston instead of staying put and re-signing with the Lakers. (Insider subscription required.)

That script began to be rewritten at the toll of free agency, 12:01 a.m. on July 1, one minute into the day after Ariza’s birthday. He was still celebrating with family when he received a call from his agent, David Lee. “He said, ‘The Lakers called, and they think you’re worth only the midlevel,’ ” or $5.8 million a year, Ariza recounts. Technically, it wasn’t even an offer. Says Lee of the Lakers GM, “Mitch Kupchak’s exact quote was, ‘We want Trevor on the cheap, and we’re not going to make an offer. Find what the market will bear and come back to us.’ ”

Ariza was bummed. He’d been expecting something in the $7-to-8 million range, but he also knew the Lakers had committed $74 million to eight players, putting them well into luxury tax territory. And free agent Lamar Odom was still unsigned. “I thought, Fine, let’s talk to some teams and see if anybody values me more,” Ariza says. Later that morning, he headed to Vegas to cool out with family while fielding calls from suitors. The Cavs brought it hard. Mike Brown and Shaq phoned, LeBron texted, then met Ariza face-to-face. They eventually put a five-year, $33 million offer on the table.

But it was Rockets GM Daryl Morey who received the coveted dinner meeting that night. Like everyone else, Morey was taken with Ariza’s selflessness, athleticism and offensive uptick, all of which made him a snug fit in Rick Adelman’s free-flowing attack. But in his analysis, Morey, the league’s top number cruncher, discovered something else, too. “We found Trevor’s defensive impact to be at the top of his position,” he says. “He was always our top free agent target, but on his defense alone, he was worth the money we had available for him.” As he and Ariza were leaving dinner, Morey checked his voice mail. Ron Artest was LA-bound.

A few hours later, Ariza agreed to a five-year, $33 million deal with the Rockets, similar to what the Lakers had given to Artest.

No one but Laker GM Mitch Kupchak and Lee know for sure what was said during that initial phone call, but why wouldn’t the Lakers put a solid offer on the table for Ariza to sign? He was hoping for more money, but he was going to have a tough time getting it elsewhere considering everyone and their brother was over the salary cap. The most that (most) teams could offer was a mid-level deal, and that’s eventually the type of deal he signed.

Maybe he goes and talks to the Cavs and the Rockets and then comes back to L.A. because the money is the same. But that didn’t happen, and it sounds like the Lakers’ decision not to extend an offer to Ariza allowed the team to quickly change course to pursue Ron Artest.

Still, chemistry is a fickle thing, and there’s no guarantee that Artest is going to fit in with the Lakers. Ariza is younger, has more upside and is much less of a wild card than Artest, and the Lakers may one day regret not making that mid-level offer to Ariza during that initial phone call.

Even with the whole Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn mess strategy, this is a nice move by the Timberwolves. Sessions can play a little off guard, but he and Flynn will have some battles in practice and should ultimately make each other better. He’s just 23 and has proven that he can be productive in limited minutes, and now that he’s locked into a reasonable contract, he’s going to be a valuable asset for the T-Wolves.