We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

The Los Angeles Clippers just pulled off the unthinkable: they managed to trade away Baron Davis’s untradeable contract. But it cost them a lottery pick.

Mary Schmitt Boyer of The Plain Dealer has the details.

An NBA source has confirmed to the Plain Dealer that the Cavaliers are about to send guard Mo Williams and forward Jamario Moon to the Los Angeles Clippers for guard Baron Davis and a No. 1 draft pick in the 2011 draft. That likely will be a lottery selection, although this draft is not considered to be particularly strong.

Below you’ll find a table with each player’s age, ’10-11 Player Efficiency Rating (via John Hollinger of ESPN) as well as their salaries for the next two seasons. Both contracts expire in 2013.

The Clippers are going to save approximately $11.7 million over the next two seasons with this trade. Even though Davis has a higher PER this season, they’re probably getting the better player in Mo Williams, who has battled injuries this year and hasn’t been the same since LeBron left last summer. I suspect he’ll be revitalized playing with Blake Griffin just as Davis was for the first half of the season.

When I first saw the headline about the Cavs trading for Davis, I chuckled, but with the Clippers’ first round pick included in the deal, it makes a lot more sense. The Cavs are basically buying the Clips’ #8 overall pick (which could end up being quite a bit higher or a little lower) in the 2011 draft for around $12 million.

Side note: It just goes to show how out of whack the NFL rookie salaries are for the top picks because it’s almost impossible to find an NFL team that wants to trade into the upper part of the draft. And here the Cavs are spending $12 million for that right because the NBA rookie salary scale is a much better deal for teams drafting in the lottery.

There’s no telling how this trade is going to work out until we see what kind of player the Cavs get with the pick. One thing it does buy the Cavs is hope. Mo Williams wasn’t going to take this team anywhere and neither is Baron Davis. Williams has more value because he’s going to provide about the same production at a fraction of the cost, but by acquiring a lottery pick, the Cavs have another building block for their rebuilding project.

The short-term winner in this trade is definitely the Clips. Not only did they shed themselves of Davis and his terrible contract (which they gave him in the first place), they also freed up enough cash in the summer of 2012 to make a run at a max free agent, assuming the next collective bargaining agreement allows for this. There are already rumors swirling that Deron Williams could join the Clips that summer, and Chris Paul could be a free agent next summer as well.

One thing is certain — the Clips have to sign/acquire a great player to play alongside Blake Griffin before he has an opportunity to sign elsewhere. If they can sign Deron Williams/Chris Paul, re-sign Griffin, and can keep Eric Gordon in the fold as well, the Clippers will really be in business.

GMs around the league were worried that there wouldn’t be much action leading up to Thursday’s trade deadline, but once the Carmelo Anthony trade went down, there has been a flurry of activity highlighted by the Nets’ acquisition of Deron Williams.

Here are five more trades that should happen, but probably won’t. They generally include one older player on a bad team that isn’t going anywhere.

Click on each trade’s headline to see it in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Steve Nash to Atlanta for Jamal Crawford and two first round picks
Free Steve Nash! The Hawks aren’t the ideal destination for Nash, but the Hawks really need a floor leader and the team has the defensive frontcourt (Josh Smith, Al Horford) to make up for Nash’s weakness on that end of the court. Smith and Horford would work well in Nash’s patented screen-and-roll and he would take the pressure off of Joe Johnson to create as the shot clock is winding down. The Suns aren’t going to get much out of this deal other than cap relief (Crawford’s deal is expiring) and a couple of first round picks, but Nash is 37 years old and deserves to play in the postseason. The Suns aren’t going anywhere anyway.

2. Rip Hamilton to Chicago for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer
Rip can still play. He’s averaging 13.3 points per game and his shooting 40%+ from 3PT even though his minutes are sporadic. He works hard on defense and has kept himself in great shape throughout his career, so he should be able to contribute for the remainder of his contract. His spot up jumper would be a nice fit alongside Derrick Rose in the Chicago backcourt. The Pistons would be rid of the headache of keeping Rip on the roster without playing him and would get a couple of youngish wings in Korver and Brewer that could actually contribute.

3. Mo Williams to Portland for Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez
The Blazers are currently sitting in the #5 spot in the West and could use a dynamic point guard who can create and shoot it while Brandon Roy comes back from his knee injury. Williams is good enough to run the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge, but he’s also a spot shooter, so he’d be a solid fit if/when Roy does come back and dominate the ball. For Williams, the Cavs would get Fernandez who still has some upside as a 25-year-old swingman who gave Team USA fits in the 2008 Olympics. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter and would do well with more minutes in Cleveland. The Blazers could throw in their first round pick if a sweetener was needed.

4. Gerald Wallace to Dallas for Roddy Beaubois and Caron Butler
The Mavs could use a swingman to replace Caron Butler and Wallace fits the mold. He’s not a great shooter, but he would complement Dirk Nowitzki with his toughness, defense and rebounding. Beaubois is a good young prospect, but the Mavs might smell blood as the Western Conference has been depleted by trades while the Lakers seem more vulnerable than ever. The Bobcats would save about $18 million over the next two years and get a star on the rise in Beaubois. (He had an 18.59 PER in his rookie season.)

5. Steven Jackson to New Orleans for Marcus Thornton, Marcus Banks and Willie Green
The Bobcats continue remaking their backcourt with the acquisition of a good young scorer in Thornton, while also saving $19 million (minus whatever they eventually pay Thornton) over the next two seasons. In return, the Hornets get Jackson, a grizzled vet who can still score in bunches and take the pressure off Chris Paul and David West. Chemistry is always an issue, but Jackson should do fine with an established alpha dog like Paul who is going to be the one setting him up for open shot after open shot.

It’s pretty easy to identify, as it’s one of the few sets where the ball starts out in Mo Williams’ hands. The Bucks should have seen it coming, but they didn’t. Here’s a look.

LeBron (#3) inbounds the ball to Mo (#1) and heads over to the top of the key. Delonte West (#2) sets a block-to-block screen for J.J. Hickson (#5), which is only meant to free up Hickson so that he can set an on-ball screen for Mo. West heads to the corner to spot up for a three. Mo uses Hickson’s ball screen and dribbles towards the baseline.

Once Mo gets close to the baseline with the dribble, Antawn Jamison (#4) backscreens for LeBron (#3). LeBron charges down the right lane line and looks for a pass as Mo gets into the lane. I don’t have it on the diagram, but after setting the screen, Hickson (#5) crashes the offensive glass.

This play is so successful because Mo sucks the help defense down to the baseline with penetration, but he’s not looking to score. His defender is usually trying to recover to him (after the Hickson screen) while Hickson’s man is typically trying to close off the baseline. Mo often jumps out of bounds to create a passing angle and he usually throws a bounce pass, which will avoid any outstretched hands.

The key is the screen for LeBron — the only player that can really stop this action is Jamison’s man. Last night, it was Ersan Ilyasova, who got caught looking at Mo’s penetration and didn’t see Jamison pick for LeBron, who was free to cut into the lane.

You can see the play in action, starting at the 1:21 mark in the video below:

If I were coaching the defense, I’d tell LeBron’s man to jump baseline side of Jamison (#4) anytime he sees Mo dribble towards the baseline. That way, LeBron’s defender would be impossible to screen and he’d have a better chance at stopping the pass from getting to his man. The counter for the Cavs might be to kick it out to LeBron for a three, but I’d rather give that up than an open layup.

If LeBron isn’t open, Mo’s next options would be to throw the ball to West (#2) in the corner or dump it off to Hickson (#5), who is charging to the basket.

It’s a simple little play that is difficult to defend.

Mo Williams was the key to the last two wins. He scored 26 points (on 12-20 shooting) against the Magic, and posted 25 points, four rebounds and three assists against the Heat. Over the two games, he hit 9-12 shots from long range.

Williams has to be careful that he’s not deferring too much to Shaq. Mo is the team’s second-best player and needs to stay aggressive. It’s nice to dump it into Shaq from time to time, but he’s not going to score 25-30 on a semi-regular basis and be that complementary scorer that LeBron needs. That is Mo’s job.

The Cleveland faithful might think that LeBron was fouled on his last drive, but after taking a couple of looks at it, I think it was a clean play. The defender is entitled to his space, and he’s allowed to jump in the air as long as he doesn’t jump forward. This is called the “principle of verticality,” which means that a defensive player is entitled to his vertical cylinder. Joakim Noah’s defense on the play wasn’t a perfect example of this (as his body was drifting toward the basket a bit), but it was a good defensive play. LeBron was in a tough spot and obviously jumped into Noah looking for the call and the refs didn’t bail him out.

There are a couple of other things to take from this game:

1. Mo Williams’ ineffectiveness
He was 4-13 from the field (including 1-7 from long range). He did have six assists, but Mo is a scorer and he needs to be more efficient than this.

2. The Bulls’ balance
Chicago had seven players score at least seven points, and Luol Deng led the Bulls with 15. Derrick Rose didn’t shoot the ball well, but still scored 14 points and dropped 11 dimes.

The Cavs drop to 3-3 with the loss, while the Bulls are 3-2.