I know this guy (I’ll stop short of calling him a friend but wouldn’t hesitate to pick up the phone if he called) that at the start of all the major sporting seasons will throw out his list of “sleeper teams” to watch out for.

What’s funny about this guy is that he knows if he’s wrong he’ll never be called out because hey, they were just sleeper teams anyways right? But if he’s right, well hell, he’ll look like some kind of sports sleeper team Nostradamus.

This is the same guy that’ll pick a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 every year in the March Madness Tournament, so on the rare chance it happens he’ll have the opportunity to say that he called the upset of a lifetime. The funny thing is that he would have been wrong the previous 34 years of predicting 16’s over 1’s, but that would be beside the point.

Anyway, this piece is dedicated to him – the “Sleeper Team Guy.” For fans, there’s nothing like predicting a perennial loser (i.e. the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays) to rise from the ashes and make a postseason run no matter what sport it is. And with Opening Day right around the corner, I think it’s a perfect time to hand out some potential sleeper candidates of my own.

Below are five deep sleepers to make a postseason run this year in baseball. Most pundits assume that none of the five will finish better than third in their respective divisions, which is why I can get away with calling these teams “deep sleepers.” If any of them make the playoffs, I’ll wax poetically about it in my sleeper teams piece next year. If none even sniff a postseason berth, then in honor of “Sleeper Team Guy” don’t expect me to admit I was wrong. Yeah, that’s right – accountability is for losers.

1. Florida Marlins

What to Love: I’ll be completely honest – I want to make sweet, sweet love to this team. I want to take them out to a nice Mexican dinner, treat them to some fried ice cream and then take them back to my place so I can show them my rare collection of Roy Orbison collectable plates and hopefully top off the night by making some bad decisions. Hanley Ramirez, Cameron Maybin, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla and Gaby Sanchez comprise one of the most promising lineups in all of baseball and the young rotation of Ricky Nolasco (thanks to regular reader “T-Bone” for pointing out that I had somehow forgot Nolasco originally), Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller and Anibel Sanchez screams of potential as well. This club will be fun to watch this year and its youthful ignorance could carry them all season.

What to Hate: Young teams like the Marlins have a tendency to explode out of the gates, only to run out of gas after the All-Star Break. Their inexperience will come into play at some point this season, whether it’s at the start, end or throughout. The Fish also play in the toughest division in the NL, which features the defending World Series champion Phillies, the stacked Mets and the veteran infested Braves. But the bottom line is that Florida finished a mere 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race last year and should only be better this season.

2. San Francisco Giants

What to Love: Take a look at the starting pitching and tell me your Mickey Mouse watch doesn’t go from 6:00 to midnight. 2008 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is a freak and anyone waiting for him to suffer a sophomore slump needs to get a grip; “The Franchise” is the real deal. Believe it or not, No. 2 Matt Cain has just as much potential as Lincecum, but his record is always brutal because the Giants never give him any run support. Randy Johnson might be 89 years old, but he was a solid offseason addition to a rotation that also features a young, emerging arm in Jonathan Sanchez. Ironically, Barry Zito is the worst of the group, but even he could turn in a decent year now that he’s a No. 4. Position players-wise, Pablo Sandoval, Travis Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss are having solid springs and if they can produce, they’ll add to a lineup that features steady bats like Bengie Molina, Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand, who should be better now that his rib injury has healed.

What to Hate: Even though players like free agent acquisition Edgar Renteria should help, the lineup looks pitiful on paper. The starting pitching is solid, but the G-Men ranked second to last in runs scored last year and will rely mostly on unproven players again this season. This club better hope that Sandoval, Ishikawa, Fred Lewis and Kevin Frandsen produce this year or else the starters will have to pitch shutouts all season.

3. Texas Rangers

What to Love: There’s no doubt about it – the Rangers will score runs again this year. Ian Kinsler hit .319 with 18 dingers, 71 RBI and even swiped 26 bases last year. He’s entering his prime and at only 26, Texas can probably count on solid production from him for years to come. Josh Hamilton, who was easily the best story in baseball last year, will once again join Kinsler in the lineup. Hamilton hit .304 with 32 home runs and 130 RBI and will be the centerpiece of the Rangers’ offense again this season. Toss in quality bats like Michael Young, Hank Blalock and emerging youngster Chris Davis and the Rangers’ lineup is stacked.

What to Hate: The starting lineup makes you want to jump for joy but the starting pitching makes you feel like you’re hooked up to one of those diabolical contraptions in the “Saw” movies. None of the top four starters – Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Matt Harrison and Brandon McCarthy – had an ERA lower than 4.74 last year and Millwood even posted a 5.07 mark as the supposed ace. Unless young prospects Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz get the opportunity to shine (which is doubtful because the club doesn’t want to rush them), then the Rangers will once again have one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball.

4. Cincinnati Reds

What to Love: The Reds have quietly amassed one of the better young lineups in the National League. The headliners are Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, but the offseason addition of Willy Taveras was key and hopefully he can team with Jerry Hairston Jr. to form a decent 1-2 punch at the top of the order. Edwin Encarnacion is also a possible breakout candidate and this club has a couple of nice young pitchers in Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. (Assuming Dusty Baker doesn’t ruin their arms, that is.)

What to Hate: The Reds are kind of a poor man’s Marlins when it comes to young sleeper teams. I want to get in bed with the Marlins and share my deepest feelings. I want to get in bed with the Reds too, but I want to make sure they know that I have a big day the next day and therefore it would be best if they left after we were done so I can get some sleep. Cincy doesn’t have the talent that Florida does and unless they get breakout performances from a slew of players, than the Reds will likely sink to the bottom of the NL Central once again this year.

5. Kansas City Royals

What to Love: The addition of Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs to a lineup that already features Jose Guillen and breakout candidate Billy Butler was solid. The offense is above average and the top of the rotation is pretty good with Gil Meche (14-11, 3.98 ERA) and Zach Greinke (13-10, 3.47 ERA) leading the way. The No. 3 spot in the rotation belongs to youngster Kyle Davies, who hasn’t allowed a run yet in spring training. KC also plays in a division of uncertainty, with the Indians, Tigers, White Sox and Twins all entering 2009 with plenty of question marks.

What to Hate: The offense is good, but it’s probably only above average at this point. The lack of stars on this club is staggering and for as good as the starting three could be in the rotation, the Royals don’t have a No. 4 or No. 5 at this point. The AL Central isn’t a powerhouse, but the division still features a ton of talent and two teams in the Tribe and Tigers that could bounce back in a major way after disastrous ‘08 campaigns.

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Offseason Movement: The Royals signed free agents 1B Mike Jacobs, 3B Willie Bloomquist and RHP Kyle Farnsworth, while acquiring OF Coco Crisp from the Red Sox in exchange for Ramon Ramirez. The club also signed RHP Kyle Farnsworth, formally of the Tigers.

Top Prospect: Mike Moustakas, INF
Moustakas is a high-A prospect selected with the second overall pick in the 2007 draft. Moustakas played shortstop at the collegiate level, but his arm strength will allow him to move over to third base at the next level. He struggled hitting the ball at the start of last season, but finished with a respectable .272 average in 496 minor league at bats. As long as his hitting continues to improve, he should move through the minors this year and get a shot at the big leagues in 2010.

The Big Question: Does this club have enough pitching?
Gil Meche (14-11, 3.98 ERA, 210 IP) and Zach Greinke (13-10, 3.47 ERA, 202 IP) each found success last year, while the third spot in the rotation has been given to 25-year old Kyle Davies, who hasn’t allowed a run yet in spring training. The rest of the rotation is spotty, however. The club signed veteran Sidney Ponson to a minor league contract and is expected to challenge Brian Bannister, Horacio Ramirez and Luke Hochevar for the final two spots in the rotation. After posting a winning record in 2007, Bannister took a step back in his second full season last year, going 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA. If he can bounce back to his ’07 form, the Royals could have the makings of a nice staff. But that’s also assuming Meche and Greinke produce winning seasons again, and the youngster Davies comes through in the third spot.

Outlook: There’s plenty to like about the Royals and there’s plenty to dislike. The top of their rotation is pretty solid, but questions remain about their fourth and fifth starters. The bullpen features one of the better young closers in the game in Joakim Soria, but will the addition of Kyle Farnsworth be enough of a boost for the rest of the unit? The lineup might be the best thing going this club, with Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs joining Jose Guillen and breakout candidate Billy Butler in an above-average offense. Many things have to come together for the Royals to be successful this season, but do they have enough to overtake the Indians, Tigers, White Sox and Twins (assuming Joe Mauer is healthy, that is) in the AL Central? The division isn’t a powerhouse, but teams like the Indians and Tigers are expected to have huge bounce back seasons, which likely means that KC will be left in the dust.

Projection: 5th AL Central

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

If you do a detailed search for rankings of first basemen for your 2009 fantasy league, the only consistent thing you’ll see is: 1. Albert Pujols, STL.

After King Albert, first basemen ranked 2 through 7 is a toss up. Some fantasy pundits believe Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera is the next best 1B after Pujols, while others still feel that Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard deserves the No. 2 spot. One of the Yankees’ big offseasons signings, Mark Teixeira, is also getting some love behind Pujols, while Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder, Minnesota’s Justin Morneau and San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez are floating anywhere from No. 4 to No. 7.

What’s the deal? After Pujols, how do you value the first basemen that fall 2 through 7? By home run totals? By age? In the case of Fielder, by the size of their waistbands? First and foremost, you can’t go wrong with any of the first basemen in the top 7, if not the top 10. They’ll all give you good to great home run and RBI totals and if you’re lucky, a couple will even hit .300 and produce 100 runs.

In an effort to sort out the mess, here’s the way we see the top 7 for first basemen in 2009:

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
There’s no debate – Pujols is still the Ferrari of first basemen. Sure, you’ll have to worry about him breaking down throughout the season, but word is he’s healthy and he has always been consistent. There’s no reason he won’t accomplish what he did last year (.357-37-116-100) and there’s no reason to believe he’s slowing down at 29. He’s a stud – there’s not much else to say.

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Many owners expected Cabrera’s move from South Florida to Motown to be an instant hit from the start but much like the Tigers themselves, Miguel struggled early on. But unlike Detroit’s miserable season, Cabrera wound up finishing with solid numbers, hitting .292 with 37 home runs and producing 127 ribbies and 85 runs scored. Now that he’s got a full season in the AL under his belt, there’s no reason to believe he won’t top the .300 mark in average this year and come close to the home run, RBI and run totals he produced a season ago. A healthy Curtis Granderson and Gary Sheffield would go a long way in helping Cabrera put up big numbers in ’08, as well. Added bonus: he still qualifies as a third basemen, too, which gives him more value than Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeria, Justin Morneau and Prince Fielder.

Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
Teixeira could make a case for being No. 2 behind Pujols, but not unlike other fantasy pundits, we believe that Cabrera could have an MVP-type season this year in Detroit. Teixeira won’t match Howard’s home run or RBI totals, but he could bat close to 50 points higher with much fewer strikeouts. Teixeira will also benefit from playing in a loaded Yankees’ lineup and at 28 years old, he’s in the prime of his career.

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
After signing a three-year, $54 million contract in early February, Howard doesn’t have to worry about his future until 2012. Howard is what he is at this point; he’ll hit 45-plus home runs, produce 140-plus RBIs and score 100-plus runs. His average will also hover in the .260-range and he once again won’t be afraid of the K (he had 199 strikeouts in ’08). Some feel as though Howard is still the second best option at first base after Pujols, but we favor Cabrera’s potential and Teixeira’s balanced numbers more. Still, Howard’s a beast and if you’re able to grab him early in your draft, you could focus on players that can hit for average later on.

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Morneau is just clutch ain’t he? Not only does he hit for average (.300), but his high RBI totals also make him a fantastic catch and he has 25-plus home run potential. He’ll also chip in close to 100 runs, 50 doubles and has a solid 76-walk to 85-strikeout ratio. We’ll give him the nod over Fielder because while he can’t match Prince’s home run potential, Morneau trumps him in all other categories and is only two years older.

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
What happened? After a fantastic 2007 campaign, Fielder ditched the meat for an all-veggie diet and his numbers dropped last year. He’s still going to hit 40 home runs and produce 100-plus RBIs, but his average will likely top out around .280 and he won’t hit many doubles (30) or triples (2). At 25, he still has loads of potential, but if you draft him you’re essentially banking on him hitting 40 home runs again, which is certainly doable in a hitter-friendly Miller Park. If he doesn’t come close to that dinger total, however, chances are you’re going to be left a little disappointed. The good news is that according to recent reports, Fielder has reported to spring training in good shape. Maybe the two-year, $18.5 million contract he signed in late January motivated Prince to slim down and keep his weight in check.

Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
Gonzalez is the San Diego Padres offense. If he didn’t play on such a bad team and in a pitcher’s park, he might make the leap over Fielder in the rankings. Still, his 36 home runs, 119 RBIs and 103 runs cannot be ignored and his .279 average is better than guys like Howard and Fielder. We’ll give Gonzo the nod over Lance Berkman, who is still a quality player (.312-29-106-114) but slumped down the stretch last year after a hot start and is seven years older.

Here is our official ranking of first basemen. Remember, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and Jim Thome qualify as DH’s only.

1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET
3. Mark Teixeira, NYY
4. Ryan Howard, PHI
5. Prince Fielder, MIL
6. Justin Morneau, MIN
7. Adrian Gonzalez, SD
8. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
9. Lance Berkman, HOU
10. Joey Votto, CIN
11. Derrek Lee, CHC
12. Chris Davis, TEX
13. Carlos Delgado, NYM
14. Carlos Pena, TB
15. Aubrey Huff, BAL
16. James Loney, LAD
17. Pablo Sandoval, SF
18. Conor Jackson, ARZ
19. Paul Konerko, CHW
20. Adam LaRoche, PIT
21. Casey Kotchman, ATL
22. Mike Jacobs, KC
23. Ryan Garko, IND
24. Lyle Overbay, MIL
25. Todd Helton, COL

Manny Ramirez—Word is the Dodgers do not want to sign Manny to a 4-5 year deal the way agent Scott Boras would like. That leaves open the very real possibility that Manny could be heading back to the American League where he can DH for a team like (are you ready for this?) Toronto. I don’t know, that just doesn’t seem right, does it? But it sure would tighten up a tough division even more. My feeling is Manny stays in LA for two years or so. The Yankees will also have to make a bid, and you might expect the Mets to as well just to say they did.

CC Sabathia—The Brewers would love nothing more than to re-sign their ace who came over from Cleveland in July and almost led them to the promised land. Well, he did almost single-handedly land the team in the playoffs. CC likes Milwaukee, but yearns for the west coast where he is from. The Dodgers might open their wallet here, especially if Manny goes elsewhere. The Yankees are also expected to bid, so the $$ could go high.

Jake Peavy—The hot rumor is that Peavy is being courted in a trade by the Braves, but GM Frank Wren is not itchy to give up the top prospects the Padres are looking for.

Francisco Rodriguez—The Angels’ closer who saved a major league record 62 saves in 2008, is expected to receive a hefty offer from the Mets to replace Billy Wagner.

Mark Teixeira—The Angels are likely to re-sign him, but if the Yankees do not get Sabathia, expect a run from them as well.

Other news….

Detroit’s Freddy Garcia has filed for free agency after pitching just three games for the Tigers in 2008……Seattle’s Raul Ibanez has also filed…AJ Burnett is likely to opt out of his contract with Toronto, and is expected to do so before next week’s GM meetings….Ken Griffey’s option was declined by the White Sox, who didn’t make it past the first round of the playoffs against Tampa. Griffey should find a home in the American League as a DH….Florida traded 1B Mike Jacobs to Kansas City on Thursday for pitcher Leo Nunez….the Tigers declined the option on Edgar Renteria….the Dodgers’ Jeff Kent is finally expected to retire…..in Brewers news, Ben Sheets has declared free agency, and they have named former A’s manager Ken Macha to replace Ned Yost…the Brew Crew also declined their option on infielder Craig Counsell yesterday.