My post from a few days ago was relatively well-received at reddit, and one of the readers there said that he’d like to see the same graph for some of the all-time great point guards.

So with a little help from Basketball-Reference.com, I compiled a list of (all?) the Hall of Fame point guards: Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkens, Bob Cousy, Jerry West, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, Tiny Archibald, Calvin Murphy, Pete Maravich and Walt Frazier. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t start keeping track of turnovers until the 1977-78 season, so there’s no assist-to-turnover data for the first four (Robertson, Wilkens, Cousy, West) and the data for Archibald, Murphy, Maravich and Frazier is incomplete, so I could only use their post-1977 numbers.

I also compiled a list of the top non-HOF point guards who are both retired and still active: Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Rod Strickland, Maurice Cheeks, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Andre Miller, Muggsy Bogues, Kevin Johnson, Derek Harper, Stephon Marbury (yes, Stephon Marbury), John Lucas, Norm Nixon, Mookie Blaylock, Sam Cassell, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Nick Van Exel, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups and Mike Bibby. All of these players have at least 5,400 career assists, which seemed to be the cutoff for players I was interested in using for this study.

Lastly, I added seven of the top current point guards who have yet to break the 5,400-assist barrier: Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and of course, Chris Paul.

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball, relative to what he’s asked to do as a playmaker for his team. The graph takes a gentle downward slope because assists are part of both calculations. (Note: While I do like FGA/A as the criteria for shoot-first/pass-first, I am not completely sold on A/TO as the criteria for turnover-prone. Perhaps (A+FGA)/TO would show shoot-first guards in a better light? Maybe I’ll try that next year.)

Here’s how the graph turned out. Click on it to see a bigger version.

Pass-first/shoot-first goes left to right, while takes care of the ball/turnover-prone sits on the vertical axis.

A few random thoughts:

– This is not typically an indictment of a player’s game. Most offenses call for a playmaking point guard, while others do not. For example, Sam Cassell was definitely a scoring point guard, but he was a great fit in the Houston offense alongside Hakeem Olajuwon, who was very adept at drawing the double-team and kicking the ball out to the open shooter. Cassell’s role on that team was to hit open shots, not run the pick-and-roll over and over in an attempt to set up other shooters (like John Stockton).

– Murphy, Frazier, Iverson and Maravich were so far to the right on the shoot-first scale that if had I shown their plot points, the rest of the graph would have been unreadable. Their shot-to-assist ratios ranged from 3.40 (Frazier) to 4.75 (Murphy). In the modern era, Iverson is probably the quintessential shoot-first point guard, even though he did average 6.2 assists per game.

– Speaking of quintessential, it’s no surprise that John Stockton and Chris Paul are in the top-left quadrant, but Muggsy Bogues’ presence is a little surprising. He couldn’t score very well (career 7.7 ppg), but his assist-to-turnover ratio (4.69) was easily the best of the players in the study.

– Other players in the top-left quadrant like Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Mark Jackson, Maurice Cheeks, Rajohn Rondo and Avery Johnson are your traditional pass-first point guards. Magic Johnson also qualifies, but he was special because he could drop 35 points on you if necessary.

– Just because a player is not a traditional pass-first point guard does not mean that he can’t have great success. Isiah Thomas, Sam Cassell, Tony Parker and Dennis Johnson all have multiple NBA titles on their resumes, while Chauncey Billups has one of his own. This is good news for Rose, Westbrook and Curry, who are not traditional pass-first point guards.

Marc Stein tweeted that Murphy told him personally that he’s going to Boston.

Murphy helps take some of the sting out of the loss of Kendrick Perkins in the Jeff Green trade. Murphy can rebound and shoot the three, so he’ll help space the court for the Celtics and give Doc Rivers another capable crunch time option with a little more length than Glen Davis.

I’m surprised Murphy didn’t pick the Heat, who seemingly have more available minutes at center, though maybe he wanted to get back to his Irish roots. The C’s are also in line to talk to Corey Brewer after his surprising buyout by the Knicks. He’s considered an elite wing defender and his on/off stats at 82games back that up.

Meanwhile, Mike Bibby is reportedly heading to the Heat. He’s well past his prime, but he’s still an upgrade over Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo. I’m not sure why Miami hasn’t played with a Wade/Miller backcourt much this season, though Miller has been pretty bad as he’s been working his way back from injury.

Bibby gives the Heat an experienced player who won’t be afraid of the moment. He’s a good shooter who should be able to take advantage of open shots created by LeBron and Wade’s penetration. Good signing by Pat Riley.

Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News reports that the Warriors have agreed to buy out Troy Murphy.

As insisted by Warriors owner Joe Lacob, one source said, Murphy agreed to sign only with an Eastern Conference team.

Exact details of the agreement were not available, but it is believed that the percentage subtracted by the Warriors will correspond relatively to the pro-rated salary Murphy can be expected to receive from his next team.

Murphy won’t make as money in this as he could’ve (when you’re bought out for 100%, everything else you sign for is extra money), but he won’t lose money, either.

Kawakami cites monetary savings, team chemistry and fostering a good relationship with Murphy’s agent, Dan Fegan, as reasons for the Warriors to get this done.

Both Miami and Boston have expressed interest in Murphy, who as recently as last season averaged a double-double (14.6 points, 10.2 rebounds) for the Indiana Pacers. It was no fluke, either. Murphy also averaged a double-double in the 2008-09 season.

He can help both Boston and Miami, but I’d argue that the Heat need him more. He’s a career 39% three-point shooter, so he can make opposing bigs pay for helping in the lane on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. He’s not a terribly good defender, but he has a high basketball IQ and rebounds well. I just wonder what kind of shape he’s in after riding the pine in New Jersey this season.

Any team that signs him can only offer the veteran’s minimum, so it’s about the best fit for Murphy. It appears that there are more minutes available in Miami, but with a last name like Murphy, isn’t Boston the place to be?

Mike Bibby is another buyout candidate and according to the Washington Post, his agent will be meeting with the Wizards this week to discuss terms.

The two sides have had preliminary discussions, according to two league sources, but no formal proposals have been made. Bibby makes $5.8 million this season and is on the books for $6.4 million next season. Bibby would have to sacrifice a lot of money and get waived by Tuesday in order to be eligible to join a playoff team this season.

Portland, Miami and Boston are reportedly interested in signing Bibby if he can reach an agreement.

He’d also be a good fit in Miami, where he could easily start at point over Mario Chalmers and/or Carlos Arroyo. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter and is hitting at a 44% clip this season.

If the Heat can add both Bibby and Murphy, Pat Riley will cement his status as Executive of the Year for 2010-11.

Milwaukee was cold from the field in Game 6 and that trend continued on Sunday, as the Bucks hit just 33% of their shots (an just 21% of their threes) in Game 7. The Bucks’ defense kept the game from getting out of hand, but without Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee had to hit its shots to keep it close.

Still, the Bucks trailed by just 12 early in the fourth quarter, but the Hawks buckled down and outscored Milwaukee 19-10 over the final ten minutes of the game. Joe Johnson struggled (4-of-14 from the field, 8 points), but the Hawks got good games from Jamal Crawford (22 points), Al Horford (16 points), Josh Smith (15 points) and Mike Bibby (15 points), who combined to shoot 25-of-43 (58%) from the field.

This series probably would have ended differently had Bogut been healthy, but give the Hawks credit for playing well with their proverbial backs against the wall. They played great defense in the last two games, and have all the tools to be a great defensive team. But Atlanta’s problem is focus. The Hawks have a tendency to vary their level of effort depending on the score of the game, and often come apart at the seams when the chips are down. They’re good, but they’re not good enough to turn it on and off whenever they want.

Do they have a chance against the Magic? Sure, but the Hawks are going to have to play an entire series the way they did in their four wins against the Bucks. Against the Bucks, if the Hawks played well, they’d win. That’s not necessarily the case against the Magic.

As for the Bucks, this was a disappointing end to a great season, but like Scott Skiles said in his “wired” segment before the game, when the team was sitting at 18-25 during the season, had anyone asked if they’d take an opportunity to play in a Game 7, they would have jumped on it. The fact that they pushed a far more talented Hawks team to seven games without Bogut is a moral victory.

Looking ahead to this summer, veterans Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas and Jerry Stackhouse are free agents. Ridnour played well enough this season to potentially earn a starting gig next season, though he’d likely struggle against the other starting-caliber point guards in the league. Thomas and Stackhouse may come back to give the Bucks a steady veteran presence off the bench, though GM John Hammond would be wise to keep the purse strings as tight as possible.

The big free agent decision may be John Salmons, who could opt out of the final year of the contract ($5.8 million). Despite posting 18-4-4 in the series against the Hawks, Salmons may have played himself out a few million dollars with a woeful shooting performance (8-of-31, 26%) in Game 6 and Game 7, when the Bucks needed him most. Salmons turns 31 in December, so the Bucks should proceed with caution. I can see a three-year deal worth $21-$24 million, but Milwaukee shouldn’t break the bank trying to re-sign him.

From Salmons’ point of view, he should give the Bucks a hometown discount, because he wouldn’t even be in the position to sign a lucrative new deal this summer if Hammond hadn’t traded for him at the deadline and Skiles hadn’t given him the freedom to be the Bucks’ main scorer on the wing.

Milwaukee projects to have a ton of cap space next summer (2011), so assuming the deal lasts at least two years, whatever contract they sign Salmons to will cut into that projected cap space.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Another interesting thing to note about the Hawks is that Jamal Crawford is getting a ton of minutes at point guard at Mike Bibby’s expense. In six January games, Bibby is averaging just 25 minutes per game to Crawford’s 29. More importantly, in crunch time against the Celtics, the Hawks went with Crawford, not Bibby. At this point in Bibby’s career, Crawford is simply better able to get his own shot. He’s not a much of a distributor, though he’s capable of hitting the open guy when he doesn’t have a shot (which doesn’t happen very often).

It would seem so…

The Atlanta Journal-Consitution first reported Tuesday that Bibby and the Hawks had a three-year agreement for about $18 million, according to sources.

Falk said Bibby and other free agents have found “the market is extremely conservative this year for free agents, compared to last year.”

“A number of teams had interest in him … but I think Mike was comfortable in the environment” with the Hawks, Falk said.

I’m not sure what Falk is talking about when he says that the market is “extremely conservative” after the Pistons invested $19 million per season in Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva and Toronto is doing everything it can to give Hedo Turkoglu the $10 million per season that he’s asking for. Bibby’s market value is about the mid-level and that’s essentially what he signed for.

It looked like Bibby’s days in Atlanta were numbered when the Hawks traded for Jamal Crawford and drafted Jeff Teague, but Crawford is better off the ball and Teague needs to develop, so it makes sense to keep Bibby around for a couple more years. He played well last season, so hopefully for Hawks fans he can repeat that performance now that he’s not in a contract year.

It will be interesting to see how this contract affects Andre Miller’s negotiations. Miller is two years older and has been asking for a contract starting around $10 million per season, but I don’t think he’s going to get it. I think his floor is around the mid-level.

Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

2. Hedo Turkoglu, SF (30)
PER: 14.82
With the Magic’s trade for Vince Carter, and Turkoglu’s rumored demands for a five-year deal worth $50 million, the general consensus is that Hedo won’t be back in Orlando. I think the Magic would consider a three-year deal at around $8 million per season, but that would put the franchise in luxury tax territory for the foreseeable future. (It would also make them a contender, so it may be worth it.) The Blazers, Raptors and Kings are reportedly interested, but Toronto seems intent on re-signing Shawn Marion, so they may elect to go another direction. Still, at 30, he’s not going to be as effective in the last two years of the contract as he is in the first three, so a five-year deal may be asking too much.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

3. Ben Gordon, SG (26)
PER: 17.02
The Bulls reportedly want to re-sign Gordon, but the Pistons seem interested and have a rumored promise of $11 million per season. That seems steep for Gordon, who is undersized for an off guard, doesn’t always have the best shot selection and has a reputation for being a less than stellar defender. He is an outstanding shooter and scorer, and can carry a team at times with his offensive ability. Gordon may sign for over $10 million per season, but I have a gut feeling that he’s going to regret the decision to turn down two different extensions from the Bulls over the last two years.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

4. Ron Artest, F (29)
PER: 15.64
Artest played for $7.4 million last season, and I think his best bet for a contract that’s more than the MLE is with the Rockets. Don’t expect them to break the bank, as Daryl Morey knows that the Rockets probably won’t have much competition for Artest’s services. He brings a lot to the table, both good and bad. He’s not a great fit with any of the teams with significant cap space, so the Rockets might be able to lock him up to a three-year deal for a bit more than the MLE.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

5. Trevor Ariza, SF (24)
PER: 15.51
Ariza really came on this season and was a big factor in the Lakers’ championship run. He averaged 11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and shot an astounding 48% in the postseason. That, plus his stellar defense, is exactly what the Lakers need out of the small forward position, and all indications are that they’ll be able to re-sign him. I’d expect a MLE-type deal, because he’s unlikely to leave L.A. even if another team offers him a little more money. The Blazers and Kings could both make a run at him, but they would probably need to offer him $7 million or more per season to pry him away from L.A.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

6. Jason Kidd, PG (36)
PER: 16.95
Barring a sign-and-trade, Portland and Atlanta are the only teams in the market for Kidd’s services that could offer him more than a mid-level deal. The general consensus is that he’ll re-sign with the Mavs, though at 36, I doubt Dallas gives him more than a two-year deal. I think Mark Cuban will do what it takes to keep Kidd in town, or else he’d have to deal with the ramifications that the Kidd-for-Devin Harris deal was a disaster. (He’s still in denial.)
Value: $7.5 – $8.5 million per year

7. Lamar Odom, F (29)
PER: 16.60
Odom has said in the past that he can’t imagine not living near the beach, so I don’t think that the Lakers have to come very strong to retain his services for another two or three years. Most of the teams with cap space could use him, but I think he’ll stay put. When he plays to his potential, his value is well over $10 million per season, but given his age and tendency to disappear for long stretches, I think the Lakers will get a hometown discount. I don’t see another team offering him enough to leave L.A.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

8. Shawn Marion, F (31)
PER: 16.02
The Raptors have said that they intend to re-sign the Matrix, and he played well for them when they went 9-4 down the stretch. His reputation of being a bit of a malcontent will work against him in this market, though he’s bound to sign for more than the mid-level. He still has two or three good seasons before his skills start to decline.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

9. Mehmet Okur, FC (30)
PER: 17.59
Okur has the option to play another year (for $9 million), but at press time, the feeling was that he was almost certain to opt out. He had a great year, averaging 17.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and shooting almost 45% from long range, and there are a number of teams — the Thunder, Pistons, Raptors and Kings — that could use him. He isn’t a good help defender, but he’s physical on the block and is a pretty good defensive rebounder. I think he’ll stick with the Jazz, but he’ll test the waters first.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

10. Andre Miller, PG (33)
PER: 18.71
Statistically speaking, Miller’s last two seasons were two of his best, and he proved that he’s not over the hill. He’d be a good fit with the Blazers, but so far there has been no confirmation of interest. The Hawks are another team that could use his leadership, and it looks like Mike Bibby may be on his way out of town. Besides those two teams, Miller’s best bet is to re-sign with the Sixers (who just drafted the raw Jrue Holiday) or take a mid-level deal with a contender in need of point guard help.
Value: $6.0 – $7.0 million per year

11. Rasheed Wallace, FC (34)
PER: 14.91
Wallace says he wants more than the mid-level, but I’m not sure that’s what the market is going to bear. He’ll likely sign with a contender, and other than the Blazers (and maybe the Hawks) all of the contenders are over the cap. That leaves two options: 1) a mid-level deal or 2) a sign-and-trade. At 34, it’s going to be interesting to see how long of a deal he gets, as his game looked to be on the decline last season.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

12. Allen Iverson, G (34)
PER: 15.89
AI is in a tough spot. He’s a former MVP that is at his best when his team is built around him — only his skills aren’t quite good enough to justify that. His move to Detroit was a disaster, so he hasn’t been able to prove that he’s willing to accept a lesser role to benefit his team. This makes him a very risky addition for a contender. I don’t see any of the teams with cap space rolling the dice, but will Iverson sign a mid-level deal? That might be his only option at this point.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

13. Mike Bibby, PG (31)
PER: 16.38
Bibby was better in his first full season with the Hawks, but Atlanta just traded for Jamal Crawford and drafted Jeff Teague, so Bibby’s stint in Atlanta is likely over. Portland could use his services, but there hasn’t been any indication out of the Pacific Northwest that that’s the case. He’s not much of a creator, so he’d be the best fit for a team that would ask him to knock down open shots (i.e. the Rockets, Heat, Lakers, Mavs). I think he’ll eventually sign for a playoff team at the MLE.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

14. Brandon Bass, PF (24)
PER: 16.49
Bass has performed well in limited minutes behind Dirk Nowitzki, but it might be time for a change of scenery. While his PER has been 16+ the last two seasons, he’s still pretty much flying under the radar. At just 24, he still has room to grow, and he’s already a solid offensive player. He’s probably a 14/7 guy as a starter, but he’s more likely going to join a contender at or near the mid-level and come off the bench.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

15. Chris Andersen, FC (31)
PER: 18.16
“The Birdman” brought great energy off the Denver bench and even outplayed Nene at times. I criticized the Nuggets for giving Marcus Camby away, but clearly it was Andersen that made it possible. At 31, he’s no spring chicken, but he’s certainly in line for a raise. He’s a great shotblocker and rebounder, and is decent when he’s asked to catch the ball and finish. But he isn’t particularly good as a post defender and has limited outside touch. He strikes me as another near mid-level guy.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

16. Anderson Varejao, FC (26)
PER: 14.62
Varejao is tough on the class and has the potential to be a hard-nosed defender, yet he spends a lot of time flopping to the floor looking for the call. His offensive game is non-existent (and isn’t improving), and as a liability on that end of the court, he’s not going to get the kind of contract he’s expecting. As Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out, it’s going to be tough for the Cavs to play Shaq and Varejao at the same time, which makes him sort of expendable in Cleveland. They may re-sign him so that Shaq can get a game off from time to time, but I don’t think they’re going to meet his asking price. I don’t know that any of the teams with cap space would be willing to pay more than the mid-level for 6’11″ defender/rebounder with no discernible offensive game. Someone will offer him a mid-level deal.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

Other notables: Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Zaza Pachulia, Dahntay Jones, Antonio McDyess, Drew Gooden, Anthony Parker, Flip Murray, Stephon Marbury, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, Anthony Carter, Von Wafer, Marquis Daniels, Rodney Carney, Shelden Williams, Chris Wilcox, Desmond Mason, Matt Barnes

That wraps up the significant unrestricted free agent. Check back on Monday, when I’ll break down this summer’s group of restricted free agents.

Related content:

The Top Restricted Free Agents of 2009
Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?
The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010