2009 College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions

Last week was bitter sweet as I went 4-0 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread. Keep in mind that I try to only pick top 25 games, so they’re much, much harder to predict. Like, much harder. (Or at least that’s my excuse anyway.)

No. 8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30PM ET
Both of these SEC teams will be looking to finish the 2009 season strong when they square off this Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels snapped a six-game losing streak to the Tigers last season but they haven’t won at home in his series since 1998. The public seems high on Ole Miss after the Rebs hammered Tennessee last Saturday, but keep in mind that the Vols were in the midst of some turmoil after three of their players were arrested for attempted armed robbery last week. Dexter McCluster went off on Tennessee for 282 yards and four touchdowns, but he’ll have a hard time repeating that effort against a stout LSU front seven. Something tells me that Les Miles’ team is still pissed off about what happened two weeks again in Tuscaloosa and will play this week with passion. I see a small upset for the Tigers and an outright win.
Odds: Ole Miss –4.5.
Prediction: LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

No. 25 California at No. 17 Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Stanford is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. The Cardinal have scored 106 points combined against Oregon and USC the past two weeks and senior running back Toby Gerhart has almost been unstoppable. Without running back Jahvid Best, Cal squeaked by Arizona last week, 24-16. With Best sidelined again this Saturday, many expect Stanford to roll but don’t forget that Cal has the 19th best run defense in the nation and is capable of containing Gerhart and keeping things close. Quarterback Kevin Riley might be able to take advantage of a Stanford secondary that has been inconsistent this season, although without the threat of a running game the Bears’ offense might become too one-dimensional in the second half. I think Stanford will pull out the victory but this game will be closer than people think.
Odds: Stanford –7.5.
Prediction: Stanford 35, Cal 31.

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Former Michigan QB rips Lloyd Carr

Former Michigan quarterback Rick Leach lambasted ex-Wolverine coach Lloyd Carr recently on an Ann Arbor radio show, claiming that Carr “flipped a huge middle finger right in our current coach’s face.”

Here are the details, courtesy of the Detroit Free Press:

“I saw an article that said Lloyd Carr was at the game in Iowa,” Leach told WTKA-AM (1050). “… No. 1, whose ticket did he go on? Whose private box was he sitting in, and whose university staff was in the box with him?

“As far as I’m concerned, as a former player that loves this program, I love our head coach, I love what they’re trying to do — our ex-coach flipped a huge middle finger right in our current coach’s face.”

Carr couldn’t be reached, and Michigan spokesman David Ablauf declined to comment on Leach’s comments.

If you read between the lines, Leach must be accusing Carr of getting a ticket to the game thanks to someone at Iowa. Seeing as how he and Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz are friends, it’s a possibility that Carr got the ticket through him.

That said, who gives a flying crap? Considering Bobby Petrino has negotiated multiple times with other programs (and one NFL team) behind his school’s back, I don’t think Carr attending the Michigan-Iowa game on Ferentz’s ticket is that big of a deal. And Petrino is just one example of a coach that has left his team high and dry: Nick Saban, Brian Kelly and Leach’s homeboy Rich Rodriguez have all done the same.

I think Leach is being a little too sensitive here. If he wants to preach loyalty, he shouldn’t be backing Rodriguez.

Welcome to college football, Tate Forcier

Those that had followed Rich Rodriguez’s coaching career knew that his success at Michigan would be ultimately tied into whether or not he could find a quarterback. He didn’t have one last year and the Wolverines were an embarrassment week in and week out.

But this year, Rodriguez has found his signal caller of the present and the future in the impressive Tate Forcier.

The freshman signal caller was dazzling on Saturday, completing 23 of 33 pass attempts and racking up 310 total yards of offense as Michigan knocked off No. 18 Notre Dame 38-34 at the Big House. Forcier also threw two touchdown passes (including the game winner to Greg Mathews with under 15 seconds left to play) and ran for a score.

Forcier reminds me of a better, stronger-armed version of Jeff Garcia. Both do a great job of gliding around the pocket in order to buy more time to pass and both can throw while on the run. They’re always extremely aware of their surroundings and can also make plays with their legs. (Forcier’s juke of a ND defender on his 31-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter was freaking sweet.)

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Forcier up to this point (he had a nice game against Western Michigan in the opener, too) is that he doesn’t have a great offensive line in protecting him. He hasn’t been able to take three or five step drops (not that that’s a big part of Rodriguez’s offense anyway) and fire the ball into open receivers. He’s largely had to make plays on his own and he’s been creative while getting the ball into his wideouts’ hands.

Forcier has made Michigan relevant again and at least for now, Rich Rod can take a deep breath because he’s found his quarterback.

As for Notre Dame, they shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with stupid penalties. They had nine infractions for 75 yards, most of which wiped out offensive gains that could have kept drives moving. Their offense could have racked up nearly 550-plus yards today, but Charlie Weis’s team severely lacked fundamentals and it cost them big.

Are Notre Dame and Michigan back?

Like every other college football game on this weekend’s schedule, the Notre Dame-Michigan contest will take a back seat to the USC-Ohio State battle on Saturday night. But after convincing wins over Nevada and Western Michigan, respectively, some fans want to know whether or not the Irish and Wolverines are getting back to their winning ways.

Scout.com’s Richard Cirminiello answers the very question:

Hey, I was as impressed as anyone with the Wolverines’ opening day performance, but back? Not quite. As long as the two quarterbacks, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, are true freshmen, the program is going to be vulnerable to some un-Michigan-like performances, especially when the schedule toughens and the team ventures outside the campus. That said, it’s clear that Rich Rodriguez has his kids in a far better position to compete for a postseason game than he did in his debut season. And that’s still a reason to celebrate around Ann Arbor after last year’s implosion.

Notre Dame is closer to being back than Michigan, largely because the coaching staff has been in place for longer and the quarterback is on the brink of a Brady Quinn-like ascent. I’m not interested that Jimmy Clausen’s last two monster games were against WAC defenses. The strikes he’s thrown would beat Big Ten defenses as well. Just go back and check the film. He’s always had the talent, but his confidence took a beating in 2007 and 2008. That’s no longer a problem. A third year with Charlie Weis and a dynamite ensemble of receivers could be just what the junior needs to get on the tarmac. Plus, if the effort from the young Irish defense in Saturday’s shutout of Nevada is a harbinger of things to come, the program has the potential to win double-digit games and bowl in January.

I couldn’t agree more. While it was encouraging that they didn’t allow another MAC opponent to beat them on their home turf last Saturday, Michigan is still going to experience plenty of rocky moments this year. It’s just something a team deals with when its starting two freshmen under center. The Wolverines will be better, but as Cirminiello points out, they’re still going to have their bad moments this season.

The key for Notre Dame this year is whether or not they can employ a consistent running game. With Clausen and Golden Tate, the passing game is going to be pretty good. But the offensive line has to make room for ND’s backs to have success or else Charlie Weis’ offense is going to be one-dimensional and even though the Irish defense is solid, it can win games on its own.

Players claim Rodriguez, Michigan violate NCAA rules

Several players on the Michigan football team claim that head coach Rich Rodriguez and the rest of the program regularly violates NCAA rules limiting how much time they can spend in training and practice sessions.

From ESPN.com:

One former player who started for Michigan last season told ESPN Saturday night that the report was accurate.

The player, who asked not to be identified for fear of repercussions from fans, said in-season Sundays at the football facility lasted from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m., including a one-hour lunch. That would be an 11-hour day. The NCAA daily limit is four hours, the weekly limit 20.

The same player said required offseason workouts included three-hour lifts on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and two hours of speed and agility on Tuesdays and Thursday. That’s a total of 13 hours; the NCAA limit is eight hours of required workouts.

This player said he would tell the Big Ten or NCAA what players were required to do and believes most of his former teammates would, as well.

A current member of the Michigan football team, who has started, also told ESPN his in-season Sundays at the football facility lasted from 10 a.m. to 9:30 p.m., although he acknowledged the first two hours were spent in treatment, which is not counted against the restricted hours.

As expected, Rodriguez and the program are denying these allegations and have said that no rules have been violated. It’s unclear at this point if Michigan has a serious problem on its hands or if a couple of players are just trying to make things difficult for Rodriguez.

It stands to reason that most teams in college football violate NCAA regulations on a yearly basis. That said, it’s highly doubtful that they’re exceeding regulation times by over six hours like the report claims Michigan has. If these allegations are true, this is yet another black eye on Rich Rod’s short tenure at UM and will certainly hurt recruiting if the NCAA can somehow prove that the program is in violation.

What’s interesting is that even with all of those practices last year, Michigan suffered its worst season in the history of the program. Nice work, Rich.

Paulus likely playing for Syracuse next season


Sources close to the Syracuse football program have confirmed that former Duke point guard Greg Paulus will likely be on their roster for next season. With Michigan out of the picture, Paulus is expected to meet with Orange head coach Doug Marrone early this week about playing football at the school in his final year of college eligibility.

Syracuse Post-Standard sports columnist Bud Poliquin wrote that this is a no-brainer decision for the struggling program, as the Orange have won only 26 of its last 83 games and have nothing to lose with this roster addition.

Which makes this, of course, a no-brainer. As long as Marrone likes what he hears from Paulus, and as long as Paulus is confident that SU will provide him with the opportunity he seeks on the field and in the classrooms of the Newhouse School, this is a Done Deal.

Because he never was redshirted during his four years at Duke, Paulus has one year of eligibility remaining in another sport. He has completed his college degree thus allowing Paulus to attend graduate school elsewhere and compete immediately if granted a waiver from the NCAA.

Paulus was a prolific high school passer at Christian Brothers Academy in Syracuse; his high marks include an undefeated senior season in which he completed 66 percent of his passes for 3700 yards and threw for 43 touchdown passes. The Orange coaching staff feels Paulus is a perfect fit to lead their pro-style offense next season.

Couch Potato Alert: 1/30

It’s finally here.

After months of preparation and endless promotion, Super Bowl XLIII will be played this Sunday. The game is scheduled to kickoff at 6:28 PM, but the pregame show festivities will begin at 10 AM with NFL Countdown on ESPN. If that is too early to begin your tailgating day, then tune into the NFL Network at 11:30 AM for their six and half hour NFL GameDay show. For those who are late arrivals to the party, NBC will begin their coverage of Super Sunday at 1 PM with Bob Costas hosting The Super Bowl Pregame Show that features a cast of thousands breaking down the premier matchup of the season.

All times ET…

NFL
Sunday, 6:28 PM: Super Bowl XLIII — Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (NBC)

NBA
Friday, 7 PM: Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons (ESPN)
Friday, 9:30 PM: Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Hornets (ESPN)
Saturday, 7:30 PM: Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat (NBA TV)
Sunday, 2:30 PM: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons (ABC)

NHL
Friday, 7 PM: Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils
Saturday, 1 PM: New York Rangers @ Boston Bruins
Saturday, 10:30 PM: Chicago Black Hawks @ San Jose Sharks

College Basketball
Saturday, 12 PM: #22 Notre Dame @ #3 Pittsburgh (ESPN)
Saturday, 1 PM: Michigan @ #17 Purdue (CBS)
Saturday, 2 PM: #23 Georgetown @ #8 Marquette (ESPN Full Court)
Saturday, 6 PM: San Diego @ #25 Gonzaga (ESPN2)

Tennis: Australian Open
Friday, 3:30 AM: Men’s Semi-Final (ESPN2)
Saturday, 3:30 AM: Women’s Final (ESPN2)
Sunday, 3:30 AM: Men’s Final (ESPN2)

Couch Potato Alert: 12/5

All times ET…

College Basketball

Saturday, 3:30 PM: No. 4 Duke vs. Michigan, ESPN
Saturday, 1:30 PM: No. 5 Gonzaga vs. Indiana
Saturday, 4 PM: Ohio State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, ESPNU
Sunday, 6 PM: No. 21 Florida vs. Florida State, ESPN Full Court

College Football

Saturday, 12 PM: Navy vs. Army, CBS
Saturday, 1 PM: No. 17 Boston College vs. No. 25 Virginia Tech-ACC Championship Game, ABC
Saturday, 4 PM: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida-SEC Championship Game, CBS
Saturday, 4:30 PM: No. 5 USC vs. UCLA, ABC
Saturday, 8 PM: No. 20 Missouri vs. No. 2 Oklahoma-Big 12 Championship Game, ABC

NBA

Friday, 8 PM: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Boston Celtics, ESPN
Friday, 10:30 PM: Toronto Raptors vs. Utah Jazz, ESPN
Saturday, 9 PM: Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
Sunday, 1 PM: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Toronto Raptors, NBA-TV

NFL

Sunday, 1 PM: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants, Fox
Sunday, 4:15 PM: Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Fox
Sunday, 8:15 PM: Washington Redskins vs. Baltimore Ravens, NBC

NHL

Friday, 8:30 PM: Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
Saturday, 2 PM: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
Saturday, 10 PM: Edmonton Oilers vs. San Jose Sharks

Boxing

Saturday, 9 PM: Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiano, HBO PPV

Couch Potato Alert: 11/21

Michigan vs. Ohio State
It’s Michigan-Ohio State – a classic rivalry that unites strangers and divides friends once a year for three and half hours. The Buckeyes are 9-2 with dreams of a BCS bowl bid in their future, and a victory over the Wolverines will give them a share of their fourth consecutive Big Ten title. How bad is it for Michigan? Well, last week’s home loss to Northwestern officially stamped this season as the worst in school history. Never has a Wolverine team lost eight games in one season and Ohio State would love to lower the bar even further. National coverage begins Saturday at 12 PM on ABC. Click here for the official Michigan-Ohio State smack thread.

Michigan State vs. Penn State
A win for Joe Pa on Saturday could clinch Penn State’s first Rose Bowl appearance since 1994, their second year competing in the Big Ten. If Michigan State running back Javon Ringer cannot run the football, the Spartans will have no chance of winning this game. It will be a difficult task, as the Nittany Lions are ranked first in the Big Ten and 10th in the country against the run. Michigan State’s last victory in Beaver Stadium was in 1965, the year before Joe Paterno became head coach of the program. Regional coverage begins Saturday at 3:30 PM on ABC.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma
A win in Norman on Saturday night would leave the Red Raiders two victories away from playing in the BCS national championship game. But an Oklahoma win will leave us with oh so many possibilities for our little bowl series come January. First off, we will have a three-way tie (Texas-Oklahoma-Texas Tech) for the top spot in the Big 12 South, and the conference has an interesting tie-breaker to determine the representative in the Big 12 title game against Missouri. The winner will be decided by which school has the highest ranking in the BCS bowl standing. So, Orwell’s big brother will have a vested interest in the outcome of this weekend’s game. National coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM on ABC. Click here for the official Texas Tech-Oklahoma smack thread.

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Two of the hottest teams in AFC will square off this Sunday, as the New York Jets travel to Memphis to face the undefeated Tennessee Titans and the winner could emerged as the conference favorite to reach the Super Bowl. The East-leading Jets are riding a four-game winning streak into the game, while the Titans are looking to become the 13th team in league history to open a season with a 11-0 record. The media spotlight has shine brightest on quarterback Brett Favre, but the team’s turnaround can be contributed to the Jets running attack. New York has averaged over 160 yards per game and scored eight rushing touchdowns in its last five games. The Titans defense could welcome back two starters this week with defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) and cornerback Nick Harper (ankle) returning to the lineup. Regional coverage begins Sunday at 1 PM on Fox.

Couch Potato Alert: 10/3

Auburn vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has endured 25 consecutive losing seasons, but the Commodores are looking to go 5-0 for the first time since 1943, and are trying to earn their first bowl appearance since the 1982 Hall of Fame Classic. They find themselves in sole possession of first place in the SEC Eastern Division. Auburn needs a win on Saturday to have a realistic shot of capturing the SEC Western Division title. The Tigers did derail the Commodores’ early season success last year with a 35-7 blowout win at Auburn. Coverage will begin at 6 PM EST Saturday on ESPN.

Florida State vs. Miami
Both teams seem to be on the right track in restoring their reputations as conference contenders despite inconsistent early season performances. This will be the second straight meeting in which neither school is ranked in the polls, and it will be the first time that Miami won’t be hosting the game in the Orange Bowl. Miami’s old home had been a house of horrors for Florida State coach Bobby Bowden, as he was 5-9 against the Canes at the Orange Bowl. Regional coverage begins at 12:30 PM EST Saturday on ABC.

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
The Terrelle Pryor Show continues this week on the road. He has shown the skills that made him the # 1 recruit in the nation by proving he can run and pass in back-to-back home victories over Troy and Minnesota. Now comes the real test – a game at Wisconsin’s raucous and rowdy Camp Randall Stadium. The talented Badgers are no doubt angry, as they’re coming off a 27-21 loss at Michigan in which they blew a 19-0 halftime lead. Regional coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM EST on ABC. Click here for the official Ohio State vs. Wisconsin smack thread.

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Do you believe in curses? If you live in Chicago and root for the Cubs, yes you do. Cubby fans get excited every April, and are heartbroken by October. They have endured eight straight playoff losses, including five in a row under Lou Piniella. The Cubs will have to play better baseball in Los Angeles to bring the series back to Chicago. But history doesn’t bode well for Cub fans, as Piniella is 3-10 in playoff games against Joe Torre, and the 2001 New York Yankees are the only team to come back from a 0-2 deficit in a divisional series. Guess who managed that team….Joe Torre. Saturday’s game 3 coverage will begin 10 PM EST and if necessary Sunday’s game 4 at 4 PM EST on TBS.

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