Last week I went 3-1 straight up and just 1-3 against the spread, so gamblers – fade at will. (By the way, those are also my season totals because I didn’t make picks for the first two weeks, although I probably would have gone 8-0 so feel free to give me the undeserved credit.)
Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Arkansas certainly has an offense capable of hanging with most opponents given the vertical weapons they have in Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams in the passing game. But ‘Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should throw a variety of looks at Razorback signal caller Ryan Mallett and use blitzes to help generate a rush. The Tide lack a pass-rushing presence on their defensive line, but their secondary is experienced and should handle whatever Bobby Petrino throws at them on Saturday. I expect ‘Bama to take away Michael Smith, Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and the Arkansas’ running game and force the Razorbacks to become one-dimensional. With Julio Jones expected back this week after missing last Saturday with a knee injury, the Razorback defense could be in trouble. ‘Bama will look to take control of this game in the second half with a balanced offensive approach and pull away in the fourth quarter. Odds: Alabama –17.5. Prediction: Alabama 41, Arkansas 20.
No. 9 Miami at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
The Canes are quickly becoming one of the more talked about programs in the nation this year courtesy of quarterback Jacory Harris. Thanks to an improved pass protection and his ability to see the entire field, Harris played exceptionally well in Miami’s wins over ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech, respectively. But the key to a Canes’ victory will be running the ball to set up Harris and the passing game. Frank Beamer’s squad has not done a good job of stopping the run so far this season and if Miami can get versatile running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper some running room early on, they might set up Harris to make big plays in the passing game. Defensively, Miami could be burned by Tyrod Taylor’s running ability if it doesn’t stay disciplined when shooting gaps. Taylor, who has been more patient as a passer this season, needs to use his legs if he sees that the Canes are too aggressive up front. Miami must also contain running back Ryan Williams, who has been excellent filling in for the injured Darren Evans. While Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in college football, Randy Shannon has his team playing with a swagger and they won’t be intimated on the road. This is going to be a thrilling game and one that might come down to the wire. I’m going with the hot team, however, and predict a win for Miami. Odds: Miami –2.5. Prediction: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20.
- With the start of a new baseball season, UNCOACHED.com puts together a photo gallery of the Marlins’ Mermaids off the field. Awesome.
- BLACKSPORTSONLINE.com has video of Eminem’s latest music video, which takes a shot at Tony Romo. (I thought Eminem was done making music? Oh, he’s back? Again?)
- SPORTSbyBROOKS.com asks the question, “Are NBA refs refusing to call fouls on LeBron James?”
- THE LOVE OF SPORTS compiles a list of the weirdest non-sports injuries.
- TAKEOUTMAG.COM started a new feature called, “Our Favorite People” and dedicated its first post to Yankee captain Derek Jeter.
- TONYBLOGS.NET has video highlights of the 2009 NCAA National Championship Game in case you missed North Carolina’s romp over Michigan State Monday night.
Michigan State knows it will be representing more than its school when it plays North Carolina in the NCAA championship game Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Spartans will also be representing a state and region that have been battered by the country’s poor economy, climbing unemployment rates and crumbling auto industry.
“There are a lot of cities right now that have problems,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “But this is ours. This is our big city in the state. So that’s why I think it’s a little more meaningful for those of us that are from around here.”
Believe it or not, the Spartans’ surprising run to the NCAA championship game is even meaningful for the sports fans who seem to hate them most.
Even in Ann Arbor, where University of Michigan fans only seem to dislike Ohio State more than Michigan State, it seems most of the Wolverines are rooting for the Spartans to beat the Tar Heels on Monday night.
“The first four times Michigan State went to the Final Four, you usually had the crowd here rooting against the Spartans,” said Ron Dreslinski of Ann Arbor, who sat at the bar in The Blue Leprechaun on South University Avenue on Sunday. “This is really the first time you have Michigan people rooting for them. I think it’s because the game is being played in Detroit. They’re kind of the underdog, too, which makes it easier.”
The poor economy in Michigan is a big reason why Michigan fans are rooting for State, but it also helps that Michigan’s most hated rival is Ohio State, not Michigan State. Plus, outside of Duke, UConn and North Carolina are the most universally disliked basketball programs in the country. Add it all up and you have Wolverines rooting for Spartans.
#1-seed North Carolina vs. #2-seed Michigan State Tip-Off: 9:21 PM ET
Sagarin Ratings: North Carolina (95.44), Michigan State (90.07)
Line: UNC – 7.5
After the Tar Heels trounced the Spartans by 35 points on Dec. 3, it was clear that if North Carolina stayed healthy, they’d probably make a return trip to Ford Field. Ty Lawson’s swollen toe threw the team’s chances up in the air, but the Tar Heels stayed focused and “The Toe” — after a scare in the first half against LSU — hasn’t given Lawson any noticeable problems in the tournament. Conversely, after that December meeting, the Spartans were left wondering just how good of a team they were. In their defense, they had just returned from a three-game stint at the Old Spice Classic in Florida and were playing their fourth game in seven days — against the top-ranked team in the country no less. Still, the game was in Detroit, and they had a couple days to recover after beating Wichita State on Nov. 30, so they should have put up more of a fight.
So how do we handicap Monday night’s game? Well, the Tar Heels still have an advantage at every position, but the Spartans are playing with a lot of confidence and Ford Field is still just 92 miles from campus. So there figures to be a lot of green and white in the stands tomorrow night, especially since the UConn and Villanova fans have been looking to dump their tickets before they catch a flight out of town.
Unlike most of the teams in the country, Michigan State does have the athletes to run with North Carolina, but the Spartans are just as content to settle into the half court and run their sets. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas has to limit or outplay Ty Lawson at the point. If Lawson wins that matchup, it’s going to be a long night for the Spartans. Michigan State can’t pack the lane like they did against UConn. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have been hot, so the MSU defenders will have to stay home. They need to meet Tyler Hansbrough at the free throw line and keep him from establishing deep position in the post. If they can push him out of his comfort zone, the perimeter defenders won’t have to double.
The bottom line is the Spartans have to get the Tar Heels out of their game. Michigan State can throw 10 or 11 players out there, but they should only push the ball when they have an advantage. Otherwise, they should execute their half court offense and hope that those wide open 15-foot jumpers keep falling. Athleticism isn’t an issue; Michigan State can jump as high and run as fast as North Carolina can, so this game will come down to execution. In the end, I think the Tar Heels will have enough to win the game, but I think Michigan State +7.5 is attractive due to the Spartans “sticktoitiveness.” They’re just going to keep coming and coming until the final buzzer sounds.
These March Madness diaries have turned into something of a tour of the sports bars of Orange County. Last Thursday it was Rudy’s in Newport Beach (still my favorite), yesterday it was the Costa Mesa Hooters, and tonight it’s Sandbox, a relatively new sports bar/lounge on Beach Blvd in Huntington Beach. The setup is nice – but no wifi, so this diary is going up in one fell swoop – with a number of HD flatscreens positioned around the restaurant. At night, it turns into more of a lounge/dance club for the well-dressed. Our server’s name is Jessie and she’s looking sharp in her little black dress. We’ll see if I can get a picture of her for you.
I’m watching the games with LaRusso and his co-worker/buddy Kevin, who is from Foxboro, so he’s a big Patriots, Celtics and Red Sox fan. We got into a minor spat last year over whether or not the Celtics would have beat the Lakers had Andrew Bynum been healthy – he thought a Boston win would have been a sure thing while I thought it would have thrown the series on its ear, but we’re way past that now.
5:14 PM: Louisville is spanking Arizona (not a huge surprise) and Oklahoma is up eight or ten on Syracuse (a bit of a surprise). I think the Orangemen have a shot at pulling this one out, though it’s not looking particularly good right now.
5:20 PM: What is the deal with these Howie Long commercials where he mocks anyone who has a truck that’s not a Chevy? This probably brings back memories of high school for Howie. Is there any chance that he wasn’t stuffing freshman in lockers on a regular basis? He reminds me of a meaner “Big John” from “Can’t Buy Me Love.” He was the one who stuck his butt out the window of a house party and farted in the face of a young Seth Green. For those that haven’t seen the flick, it’s one of my favorites from the ’80s — McDreamy plays a McLoser who pays a girl to date him so he can be popular. Hilarity (and surprisingly touching social commentary) ensues. Anyway, I’m waiting for one of these guys in these commercials to tell Howie to go f*ck himself. Do we really need a washed up NFLer mocking a fellow truck owner because it has a convenient “man step” or gets two fewer miles to the gallon? Give me a break.
Top 25 vs. Top 25: No. 2 Texas Tech at No. 5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET ABC
Raise your hand if you don’t appreciate what the Big 12 has given us this year and I’ll come over and punch you square in the mouth. The Big 12 has handed us game of the year matchups virtually every week this season and this week is no exception. Many college football pundits have had this Saturday circled on their calendars as the day when Texas Tech finally falls. Oklahoma has stumbled only once this year (vs. previously top ranked Texas on October 11), but outside of that no other team has come close to knocking them off. The Sooners have averaged over 50 points a game, but they’ll take on a much-improved Red Raider defense this week in Norman. OU is going to score points, but can they stop Heisman hopefuls Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree? No defense in the nation (not even Texas) has slowed down the dynamic duo yet and it’s hard to believe that anyone will at this point. Still, the Sooners will be looking to avenge last year’s 34-27 loss to Tech in Lubbock. In that game, No. 4 ranked OU lost Sam Bradford early in the first half and allowed Crabtree to haul in 12 passes for 154 yards and one touchdown. Oddsmakers have established Oklahoma as a 7-point favorite, but one has to believe that this is going to go down to the wire.
No. 14 Brigham Young at No. 7 Utah, 6:00 PM ET
No love for the Mountain West – this one won’t even be shown on national TV despite huge ramifications for the Utes. A MWC title and a possible BCS at-large bid is on the line in this game as Utah has another opportunity to justify their high ranking. Before being upset by TCU, BYU expected to be where Utah currently is – ranked in the top 10. The Cougars will have to overcome a stingy Utes defense that is damn near impossible to run against, yielding just 3.0 yards per carry. The onus for BYU in this game will be on quarterback Max Hall to carry the offense, while the Cougar defense will have its hands full with Brian Johnson. Considering this will be yet another tightly contested game, the Utes should be prepared. They’ve got five wins this year by seven or fewer points, including their nail biting 13-10 win over TCU three weeks ago. Oddsmakers have made BYU a 6.5-point underdog.
No. 15 Michigan State at No. 8 Penn State, 3:30 PM ET ABC
How sad is it that in the same week of Ohio State-Michigan, this is the best matchup in the Big Ten. Penn State’s win over Indiana may have looked like a blowout, but the Lions struggled with Hoosiers in the first half. Truth be told, PSU’s offense hasn’t looked that impressive in weeks. After reaching the end zone 12 times threw the air in their first fives games, the Lions have managed just five touchdown passes in their last six contests. The Spartans struggled in their last Big Ten statement game (a 45-7 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State on October 18), but Brian Hoyer (548 yards, 5 TDs in two games vs. PSU) has really stepped up of late and is putting together a nice season. Of course, all eyes will be on RB Javon Ringer. Ringer is third in the nation in rushing and if MSU’s massive offensive line can open up holes for the small back, Sparty will have an opportunity to keep PSU’s spread offense off the field and possibly walk away with an upset. Penn State is a 14.5-point favorite at home.
No. 20 Pittsburgh at No. 19 Cincinnati, 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
The job head coach Brian Kelly (who I suggested should be a candidate to replace Phillip Fulmer at Tennessee) has done this year in Cincinnati despite losing three quarterbacks has been remarkable. To keep the Bearcats afloat in the Big East is outstanding it speaks volumes about Kelly being a true winner. Speaking of the Big East, first place is on the line in this game as Cincy will try to avenge its 24-17 loss to PITT last year by throwing early and often. The Panthers have struggled against teams with like to attack downfield and Tony Pike has played very well lately in Kelly’s offense. The mission is clear for Cincinnati: Win the next two games at home and claim the Big East title. PITT is a 5-point underdog.
Upset Watch:
No. 2 Texas Tech at No. 5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET ABC
As previously mentioned, there’s a ton of folks waiting for the Red Raiders to fall this year, but I’ve already bought into the hype. No defense has even remotely slowed down Harrell or Crabtree and while Bradford and the OU offense can go toe to toe with anyone, I say Tech walks away with a straight up upset. Of course, they may need to score 60 points to win.
Other Notable Games:
Michigan at No. 10 Ohio State, 12:00 PM ET ABC
This could be the worst Michigan-Ohio State matchup in the history of this rivalry. If the Buckeyes don’t beat the Wolverines by more than four touchdowns, Jim Tressel should resign. Michigan has never found a way to stop a mobile quarterback, so Terrelle Pryor should find life pretty easy this week at the Horse Shoe.
Florida State at No. 25 Maryland, 7:45 PM ET
Does any team want to win the ACC? The Terps have provided some great upsets this season, but they don’t seem to fare well when favored. Still, their rushing attack matches up well against a solid Seminole front seven and this is one of the more underrated matchups of the week.
No. 21 Oregon State at Arizona, 7:00 PM ET
The Beavers can still punch a ticket to Pasadena this year, but they’ll need to get past a Wildcat team that gave USC fits a couple weeks ago.
ESPN play-by-play announcer Pam Ward isn’t a fan favorite when she does college football games and it’s not hard to see why when she gaffs like she did last Saturday during the end of the Michigan State-Wisconsin game.
Announcers deserve a break from time to time for saying the wrong things. Announce enough games throughout the season and you’re bound to stumble of words, mispronounce names and flat out say the wrong thing. But Ward continuously struggles with the easiest things. She gets so excited to get her words out that she doesn’t stop to think what she’s saying sometimes.
Here is who the top six BCS teams currently have left to face:
1. *ALABAMA: at Louisiana St.; Mississippi St.; Auburn 2. *TEXAS TECH: Oklahoma State; at Oklahoma; Baylor 3. PENN STATE: at Iowa; Indiana; Michigan State 4. *TEXAS: Baylor; at Kansas; Texas A&M 5. *FLORIDA: at Vanderbilt; South Carolina; The Citadel; at Florida St. 6. *OKLAHOMA: at Texas A&M; Texas Tech; at Oklahoma State
*-may also play in league championship
Just based on the remaining schedule, it looks like the title game will probably come down to the league championship weekend, which only benefits Penn State since the Big Ten doesn’t have a championship game.
But what’s interesting is that all six of these teams have potential pitfall games that could sink them before championship weekend. ‘Bama has the toughest road to travel with LSU and Auburn still left on its schedule, while Texas Tech has two dangerous games back to back in OK State and Oklahoma, while Florida-Florida State is always interesting. Penn State and Texas have arguably the easiest schedule, although Iowa and Michigan State could catch the Nittany Lions napping.
Something I don’t want to hear this year his how championship week is essentially a playoff. That is the most exciting week in college football, but it’s not a true playoff system and it’s a joke when BCS supporters try to pedal it as such.
Top 25 vs. Top 25 No. 6 Oklahoma State at No. 1 Texas, 3:30 PM ET ABC
Colt McCoy and the Longhorns are the talk of college football right now, and rightfully so with the way they destroyed Chase Daniel and Missouri last Saturday. But Zac Robinson and the Cowboys are playing as well as anyone right now and this is a huge opportunity for them to prove that they can hang with the big boys. Robinson is completing nearly 70% of his passes and has 14 touchdowns on the year to just four interceptions. But for OK State to pull off the upset, the Cowboy defense will have to be aggressive in getting after McCoy, who completed 29 of his 32 passes last week in the rout over MIZZOU. Mack Brown won’t let his team take their foot off the pedal, but this is UT’s third straight tough Big 12 matchup in as many weeks and the Cowboys won’t be any pushovers.
No. 3 Penn State at No. 9 Ohio State
The Nittany Lions are red hot and destroying everything in their path. The switch the spread offense has been a great success for PSU’s offense and QB Daryll Clark, who ranks 18th in the nation in pass efficiency. Clark will certainly have his work cut out for him this Saturday going against a veteran OSU defense, although the Lions can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the trenches. They also have protected Clark incredibly well this season, which has allowed for big plays in the passing game. For the Buckeyes offensively, frosh QB Terrelle Pryor is the real deal and really stepped up his game last week against Michigan State after struggling to make plays in previous weeks. PSU is allowing more than a half-yard less per carry than OSU’s stingy defense, so it might be tough sledding for Heisman candidate Beanie Wells. Either way, expect a battle at the “Horseshoe” this weekend in matchup of the best the Big Ten has to offer.
No. 7 Georgia at No. 13 LSU, 3:30 PM ET CBS
This is a huge game for UGA after clawing back into the top 10 last week. LSU is coming off a solid come-from-behind win over South Carolina last week and still has plenty to prove themselves after Florida ran roughshod over them two weeks ago. UGA’s inexperienced offensive line has been an issue at times this year, so QB Matthew Stafford must get the ball out of his hands quickly against a stout Tiger pass rush. And even though Heisman candidate Knowshon Moreno gets a lot more pub, LSU RB Charles Scott is rushing for over six yards a carry. The Tigers are a staggering 41-4 in Tiger Stadium since 2002, which doesn’t bode well for the road ‘Dogs.
No. 8 Texas Tech at No. 23 Kansas, 12:00 PM ESPN
The Red Raiders have flirted with disaster the past couple of weeks, even though Heisman candidate Graham Harrell continues to play beyond impressive. Still, Tech is off to its best start in 32 years and will get to test its mettle against the upper-echelon of Big 12 foes over the next four games. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, were drubbed by Oklahoma last week and just haven’t looked sharp in over a month. They have sorely missed Brandon McAnderson in the backfield, but they could be due for a game in which they put it all together. Could this be the prime upset of the weekend?
Upset Watch: Michigan State at Michigan, 3:30 PM ET
The Wolverines have been absolutely brutal this year, but this is a game they win. The Spartans were crushed by Ohio State last week in a game that they were trying to use as a measuring stick to see how good they were. This is a huge letdown game for them and Rich Rodriguez is desperate not to lose to his in-state rival and save at least a little face in his first year at Big Blue.
“We are not going to lose to State,” Michigan defensive end Brandon Graham told reporters Saturday following a 46-17 loss at Penn State.
Two days later, Graham’s teammates didn’t fault him for firing up Michigan State more.
“He wanted to guarantee a win. We’re going to back him up on it,” defensive tackle Terrance Taylor said Monday.
Oddsmakers aren’t counting on that happening.
Michigan State (6-2, 3-1 Big Ten) is a 5 1/2-point favorite to beat Michigan (2-5, 1-2) for the first time since 2001, when T.J. Duckett caught a touchdown pass with disputed time on the clock, and for the first time in Ann Arbor since 1990, when Desmond Howard dropped a pass in the end zone after he appeared to be tripped.
Michigan is an underdog at home against Michigan State for the first time since 1968 when the Spartans were a six-point favorite, according to World Features Syndicate. The Wolverines won that game 28-14.
When you’re one of the more storied programs in the nation and you lose to Toledo on your home turf, you automatically forfeit the right to guarantee victory over anyone.
