Before the month of October started, Michigan State was staring at a brutal conference gauntlet of four straight games against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska. Somehow, the Spartans found a way to win those first three, pushing themselves near the top 10 of the BCS rankings and taking control of the Big Ten Legends Division.

But with today’s loss to Nebraska, the Spartans and their very respectable 3-1 record during the month, need help to get to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.

It’s a cruel fate for a team that found different ways to win against three of the Big Ten’s top six teams, and somehow was able to get emotionally ready to play all three of them. Apparently four is too much to ask for, however, as the Spartans — especially offensively — looked listless in the loss.

Kirk Cousins was terrible, the run game was non-existent and the defense was tired from spending most of the game on the field after the offense yet again failed to do anything.

So now Nebraska is in the Legends driver’s seat, holding the head-to-head tie-breaker against MSU and having the luxury of its one conference loss (at Wisconsin) coming outside of the division. The road is not easy, however, as Nebraska finishes the season at home against Northwestern, at Michigan, at Penn State and at home against Iowa. With as erratic as the Nebraska offense is, any one of those games is losable.

Michigan State’s road wasn’t a guarantee, but it was much easier than Nebraska’s, they substitute Michigan and Penn State for Indiana and Minnesota, the conference’s two worst teams.

It’s amazing how quickly the euphoria from a miracle last-second win against an unbeaten, top 10 opponent can wear off in college football. But I suppose that’s part of the reason we all love it so much.

These might have been hideous, and the game might have been, too, but Michigan State will take it.

The Spartans ended Michigan’s run at a perfect season today with a 28-14 win against “Big Brother.” That’s four straight, which pretty much makes big brother your older, fatter, kind of alcoholic brother that you can beat at sports.

Michigan’s offense was rendered impotent as the Spartans corralled Denard Robinson’s run game and forced him to pass, which, um, isn’t what Michigan wants to be doing. Robinson was 9-of-24 for 123 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The interception was returned for a touchdown by Isaiah Lewis, effectively ending the game.

Perhaps more impressive, however, was Michigan State holding Robinson to under 50 yards rushing. The Spartans also hit him well after the whistle a couple of times, you know, just because. It worked, though, as Robinson was out of the game at the end of Michigan’s final drive, causing backup Devin Gardner — who Michigan offensive coordinator Al Borges inexplicably used with relative frequency during the game — to come up with a fourth-and-22 play that is sure to reside at the top of ESPN’s Worst of the Worst for years to come. Seriously, Gardner ran for about 130 yards on the play, 125 of which were in the wrong direction or sideways.

It’s only loss No. 1 for Michigan, but it brings back memories of the Rich Rodriguez era. Michigan State out-schemed Michigan in the second half, destroying the “Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison won’t be out-coached” meme that Michigan fans were spreading. The Wolverines couldn’t tackle, which surely gave Michigan fans the shakes after watching that on repeat for the last three years.

I’m not saying Brady Hoke = Rich Rodriguez, but this should put the brakes on the Brady Hoke for Pope campaigns. Michigan is just now entering the tough part of its schedule, and should expect more of this as it goes on this season.

As for Michigan State, it’s not out of the woods yet. The Spartans have to play Wisconsin and Nebraska in the next two weeks, so the euphoria from this win could wear off quickly. But the Spartans are unbeaten in Big Ten play after games against Ohio State and Michigan, and control their own destiny when it comes to playing for the Big Ten championship.

But that’s all irrelevant right now, as “Little Brother” has officially grown up and is in control of the state of Michigan, which might be the most important thing to the residents of East Lansing.

After Friday’s games, today might be a little anti-climactic, but there’s still plenty to be determined on college football’s more traditional day.

The Big Ten title is still up for grabs, with three teams — Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State — all tied at the top with one loss. If all three win, the BCS standings will decide who goes to the Rose Bowl. That will likely be Wisconsin, which has that edge going into today. If Wisconsin loses and the other two win, the BCS will again decide who goes to the Rose Bowl, as Ohio State and Michigan State did not play each other. It’s a problem the Big Ten will have solved next year when there’s a title game (two title contenders not playing each other, that is. As the Big 12 showed us two years ago, the BCS can still decide a divisional race if all hell breaks loose).

If Wisconsin wins, however, and either Ohio State or Michigan State lose, it will be a lot more clear cut. The Spartans get the bid with an Ohio State loss as they have the head-to-head edge over Wisconsin. The Badgers get it if Michigan State loses, because they hold that same edge over Ohio State.

So those are your scenarios (sure, there’s the “all three lose” scenario, as well, where Iowa is back in the mix, but I don’t want to force that upon you before noon). Here’s how it will play out. Read the rest of this entry »

It took a fat-guy fumble recovery in the endzone to do it (yes, technically the touchdown was given to Kirk Cousins, but my way is more fun), but Michigan State survived a surprising scare from Purdue today to remain alongside Wisconsin and (for the moment) Ohio State as the only one-loss teams in the Big Ten.

The Spartans fell behind 28-13 and 31-20 in this one before making a fourth-quarter comeback. It was aided by an ugly Rob Henry interception and a blocked punt, but it still counts.

Michigan State now goes into next week’s game at Penn State looking to lock up a share of the Big Ten title for the first time since 1988. If Ohio State loses today or at Michigan, the Spartans would have the tie-breaker in the conference over Wisconsin (head-to-head) and get the Big Ten’s automatic bid to a BCS game. If all three teams win out, the team with the highest ranking in the BCS will get the bid. It’s dumb, but that’s how the conference’s rule works.

What makes it even more dumb is that unlike in 2008, when Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech were had all beaten each other and needed the BCS to sort out the Big 12 South, this year, Michigan State doesn’t have a loss to one of the other two.

The Spartans beat Wisconsin by 10 early in the season, and their one loss is to Iowa, who is not involved in this mess. Ohio State, meanwhile, lost to Wisconsin. So technically, head-to-head should go Michigan State’s way, right? Considering they don’t have a head-to-head loss like the other two.

I’m not saying the Spartans are the most deserving, necessarily, as I think it’s pretty clear that Wisconsin is playing the best football in the Big Ten right now. But those two did meet on the field, and Michigan State did win that game.

Should it shake out with all three teams winning out, it should make for a fun debate on Dec. 5 when all of this is decided.

I figured it was only a matter of time before Auburn jumped Boise State in the human polls. I just thought it would come after a win a little bigger than at Ole Miss — a team that is now 3-5 and lost at home to Jacksonville State.

But the latest USA Today/ESPN coaches poll is out, and there are the Tigers, 23 points ahead of Boise at No. 2.

I get it, Auburn has better credentials to this point in the season than Boise State does. It plays a tougher schedule, and is deserving of the No. 2 spot in the polls. (Side note: Saw Oregon for the second time live last night, and my god, the Ducks are good. I mean, I was impressed with the way they blitzed UCLA, but they made USC look slow last night. That’s crazy.)

What I don’t get is the timing. If you had Boise State No. 2 in your poll last week, what did the two teams do this week that made you change your mind? The Broncos were a little sloppy, and obviously not fully on their game on Tuesday, and still blew Louisiana Tech. To me, that’s the measure of a really good team, one that can still win handily while not at its best. Auburn, meanwhile, looked pretty slick in a 20-point win of its own against Ole Miss. Impressive, for sure, but not so impressive that you would think, “Wow, this is the performance that pushes Auburn to No. 2!”

Of course, I don’t know how important this jump really is. Boise needed Auburn and/or Oregon to lose anyway, and now that just becomes more evident. The Tigers and Ducks will still be Nos. 1 and 2 in the BCS standings when they’re released tonight, and the Broncos will continue to have to root against other teams for their own self interest.

A couple other notes from the poll: Missouri falls to No. 14 and Michigan State to No. 15 after some tough losses Saturday. Florida State fell from No. 15 to No. 24 after its loss Thursday. Of course, in the spirit of this always sane poll, that’s one spot in front of NC State, the team it just lost to. Which has the same record.

With the prospect of a bowl game or a Pac-10 championship taken away from it before the season even began, USC’s football program has had to look elsewhere for motivation.

After a lackluster showing in early-season matchups against Hawaii, Virginia and Minnesota, and a loss at home to Washington, many wondered if the Trojans really even cared. A last-second loss at Stanford and a blowout of California, however, has shown that not only do the Trojans care, but they’re still a pretty darn good football team.

There was attrition at the school this offseason when the NCAA instituted a two-year bowl ban and a reduction in scholarships, but it’s still USC. It’s still the same team that has been bringing in top five recruiting classes year after year, and putting more five stars on the bench than many teams have seeing the field.

So now nobody’s thinking of the Trojans, as they cannot be a part of the title discussion themselves. They can severely alter the landscape today, though, and I’d imagine they’ll be real excited to try and take advantage of that opportunity. Read the rest of this entry »

The latest USA Today/ESPN coaches poll is out, and once again an upset near the top has forced some movement.

Oklahoma lost to Missouri in primetime, and tumbled from No. 3 to No. 11. That means there will be a new BCS No. 1 when the standings are released tonight. The most likely candidate is Oregon, which remained a very strong No. 1 in the poll, receiving 50 of the possible 58 first-place votes.

One team that could jump the Ducks with the computers’ help, however, is Auburn. The Tigers have the best resume with wins over LSU, Arkansas and South Carolina. They jumped over TCU from fifth to third after Saturday’s win against LSU, and I’d be surprised if the Harris Poll didn’t mirror the coaches. Because, well, Harris Poll voters are lemmings (and I really don’t have a problem with Auburn jumping to No. 3).

Michigan State moved into the top five with its squeaker against Northwestern. It’s a curious time to move a team ahead of Alabama, but it’s a big thing for the Spartans, who face their stiffest remaining test next week. A win over Iowa sets the Spartans up for an unbeaten season, and it would be tough for pollsters to move a one-loss team — even Alabama — over a major conference unbeaten. It would have been easier to keep Alabama ahead, if that makes any sense.

The poll’s biggest mover was Missouri, which catapulted to No. 8 from No. 16 after beating Oklahoma. The Tigers and Utah remain the only undefeated teams who are behind Alabama. The most surprising move of the week: Michigan moving back into the top 25 after a bye week. Apparently the voters not getting a chance to see Michigan’s defense allow 500-plus yards and 30-plus points was enough to bring back the just-lost-two-home-games-in-a-row Wolverines.

For once this season, the noon slate of games gave us something to follow.

Notre Dame was whooped by Navy, Texas lost to Iowa State and Michigan State survived a close matchup with Northwestern.

Let’s start with the Spartans, who for the second time this season, were aided by a fake kick in a big situation. This time, however, it was a fake that I, you and everybody watching the game except for Northwestern, apparently, saw coming. The Spartans pulled off a nice fake punt in the fourth quarter, and one play later, scored a touchdown to pull within a score. After a Northwestern field goal, the Spartans drove down the field again to score the go-ahead touchdown.

People around me here in Michigan think the Spartans are in the middle of a special season, and stuff like that — which had gone against them for years — is now starting to go their way. It’s tough to argue that, considering the way MSU has won a couple of its game. But at the same time, they soundly beat Wisconsin and Michigan, meaning they could just be good. Next week’s the biggest test of the season, of course, as they travel to Kinnick to play Iowa. If you asked me to put money on it, I’d put quite a bit on Iowa right now. But I’m nowhere perfect on “putting money on it” games.

Texas, meanwhile, is going through the kind of season you would expect a team to go through every few years. After four years of having Colt McCoy at the helm, the Longhorns are learning that without a dynamic run-pass threat at quarterback, they’ll need other weapons. Garrett Gilbert is a talented kid, but he’s young and he’s not getting much help.

Even so, this is a team that just shut down Taylor Martinez and Nebraska. A team that looked like it was starting to trend up after the bye week. Now the Longhorn faithful will have to deal with a non-10-win season. God forbid.

Mark Dantonio has been coaching his Michigan State team from the press box for the past few weeks after suffering a heart attack following the Week 3 win against Notre Dame.

With Dantonio in the box (or not even there in two instances), the Spartans were 4-0, and looking like a legitimate Big Ten title contender. But now, with Dantonio back on the field, the Spartans are in a world of hurt early against Northwestern, trailing 17-0 in the second quarter.

There’s still a lot of time left in this one, and I doubt Dantonio’s sideline presence is really having that much of a negative impact, but it’s quite a coincidence. Offensive coordinator Don Treadwell has had a lot of success running things down there, and it’s been Michigan State’s offense that’s been so anemic today. Also on upset alert early on, Notre Dame getting gashed by the Navy option and trailing 14-10, and Texas struggling with Iowa State.

Could be an interesting set of noon games, for once.

My wife essentially makes the schedule in our house. My job is to make sure I stay gainfully employed and just show up to the things she’s set up for us. It’s normally pretty easy and painless, to be honest. And since I’m a scatter-brain most of the time, I completely relinquish the scheduling.

But she messed up this weekend. Big time. We’re signed up for a wine tasting at 6 p.m. (EDT) today, which will be smack dab in the middle of some of the best college football finishes of the day. It also means I’ll be out of commission after 6 p.m. (never drink and blog kids, it never ends up well), so expect heavier blogging early in the day, and not much later. I’ll let you decide if that’s good or bad.

After the jump, I’ll dissect some of the great matchups of the day (there a couple of huge ones), and introduce a couple of new features for this morning forecast post. Read the rest of this entry »