A personal thank you goes out to the Bengals and Panthers for blowing decent leads at home versus the Texans and Falcons last week, and to the Bucs and Raiders as well, who never bothered to get off their respective planes in Jacksonville and Green Bay. With their powers combined, the Bengals, Panthers, Bucs and Raiders contributed to my 0-4 Sunday in Week 15. That hideousness dropped my season record to 24-29-2 with just three weeks to go to try and get over .500. The true season starts now, folks. It’s time for me to make my own version of a playoff run…

Redskins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
September 11, 2011, the Giants walk into FedEx Field and walk out with a 28-14 loss to the Rex Grossman-led Redskins. October 9, 2011, the Giants host the Seahawks after nearly losing to the Cardinals in Arizona the week before and are crushed by Seattle, 36-25. October 30, 2011, the Giants barely squeak by the then-winless Dolphins, 20-17. November 20, 2011, the Giants lose 17-10 as a 6-point favorite to the Vince Young-lead Eagles. Whenever you think the Giants should win, run the other way. They’ve played down to their competition all year and while I realize the NFC East is on the line for NY, the Skins have already proven that they can beat the Giants and have nothing to lose. They’ve also been more competitive with Grossman at the controls than John Beck so while I don’t think Washington will win, I like the Skins to keep things close.
THE PICK: REDSKINS +6.5

Saints @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
The Vikings nearly knocked off the Lions last Sunday thanks to Joe Webb and they’ll have Adrian Peterson back this week against a New Orleans team that hasn’t looked sharp on the road this year. But unless Peterson transformed into the second coming of Deion Sanders over these past couple of weeks, then Minnesota will have a hard time keeping up with Drew Brees today. The Saints’ passing game versus the Vikings’ pass defense is one of the biggest mismatches of Week 15. I’m hesitant to lay 7.5 points on the Saints when they’ve been pretty average on the road this year but they should open up things today at the Metrodome.
THE PICK: SAINTS –7.5

Jets @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET
The Jets would be the sixth and final seed in the AFC if the playoffs were to start today but the problem is that the playoffs don’t start today. And with Tennessee, Cincinnati and San Diego still nipping at New York’s heels, Rex Ryan and Co. need to play their best football today in Philly. While I don’t trust Mark Sanchez as far as I can heave him, the Jets’ running game looks like it’s finally starting to take shape and Ryan’s defense should give Michael Vick fits. Given how inconsistent the Eagles have been this season, three points seems like a gift.
THE PICK: JETS +3

Patriots @ Broncos, 4:15PM ET
I fully expect Denver’s defense to play well again this week but eventually the Patriots will figure things out and score their 20-plus points. The question is whether or not Tim Tebow and the Broncos will be able to keep pace. At this point it’s probably foolish to doubt Denver’s ability to pull off the upset but I think the Pats will serve the Broncos a very rude awakening today.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5

Check out the most current NFL Betting Lines.

Four spreads of note:

Seahawks +3.5 @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
The Seahawks, winners of two in a row and four of their last five, are a 3.5-point underdog versus a Bears team that has lost three straight and has scored just 13 points in their last two games? Something smells like baby diapers here. Oddsmakers are probably basing this line on the fact that the Seahawks haven’t been a strong road team this year (or in year’s past, for that matter) but the Bears have been a mess with Caleb Hanie under center the past three weeks. One would think that the 3.5 points are a gift but then again, if it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Panthers +6.5 @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
Carolina choked away a potential victory last Sunday versus the Falcons and Houston is on a seven-game winning streak but 6.5 points seems like a lot. Granted, the Texans beat the Falcons by seven at home two weeks ago but Atlanta had two defensive touchdowns wiped away due to penalties in that game. The Panthers have the capability of scoring points in bunches thanks to Cam Newton, who could lead Carolina to an upset victory if he would bother to play four quarters instead of just two or three. I don’t doubt that Houston will win this game but again, 6.5 points seems a little high.

Lions –1 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
This feels like a trap. The Lions moved into the sixth spot in the NFC with their win over the Vikings last Sunday (plus a Chicago loss to Denver), while the Raiders have looked hideous the past two weeks. The line is probably set right given how Oakland is at home and Detroit is the better team at the moment, but the Lions seem like too easy of a pick. Granted, the Lions will have Ndamukong Suh back from suspension, which certainly helps along the defensive line. But their secondary is still banged up and the Raiders are now fighting for their postseason lives. Call it a hunch but I think the Raiders may pull off the small upset.

Jets +3 @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET
The Eagles haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (yet) but there’s no doubt that this game means more to the Jets, who are the current owners of the sixth and final seed in the AFC. Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see New York win this game outright given how much trouble Rex Ryan’s defense could cause for Michael Vick. In his first game back since suffering a rib injury in a loss to the Seahawks a couple of weeks back, Vick was shaky against the Dolphins last Sunday. Granted, he did pick up the win but he faces an uphill climb against the best secondary in the league this weekend. The three points seem like a gimmie.

NFL Week 15 Odds:

Thursday, December 15
Jaguars +11 (42.5)
Falcons –11

Saturday, December 17
Cowboys –7 (47)
Buccaneers +7

Sunday, December 18
Bengals –6 (38.5)
Rams +6

Dolphins +1 (42.5)
Bills –1

Redskins +6.5 (46.5)
Giants –6.5

Titans –6.5 (41)
Colts +6.5

Seahawks +3.5 (35.5)
Bears –3.5

Packers –14 (46)
Chiefs +14

Panthers +6.5 (45.5)
Texans –6.5

Saints –6.5 (50.5)
Vikings +6.5

Lions –1 (47.5)
Raiders +1

Browns +7 (37.5)
Cardinals –7

Jets +3 (44)
Eagles –3

Patriots –6 (45.5)
Broncos +6

Ravens –1.5 (44.5)
Chargers +1.5

Monday, December 19
Steelers
49ers

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

Four spreads of note:

Jets –6 @ Broncos, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
The spread for this game has danced for three days now. It opened at Jets –5 and then dropped to 4.5. Now it’s all the way up to 6. I’d personally lay the points with New York up to 7 because I think Tim Tebow is going to have a hell of a time scoring on Rex Ryan’s defense. If he struggled three weeks ago against Detroit, then I shudder to think how he’ll fare against a pissed off New York team that New England just pounded at home. Although I don’t trust Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense as far as I can throw them, this is a perfect spot to lay the points with Ryan’s squad.

Eagles +4.5 @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
This line actually opened at Giants –3 but once word spread that Michael Vick played last week’s game with broken ribs and is now questionable for Sunday night, the spread jumped up. For betting purposes, it’s actually better if Vick does play because the line may drop back down to 3. And if that happens, jump all over the Giants, who would be a massive value. The Eagles look like they’re a team mailing it in and if they don’t feel as though they have anything to play for then they’re not going to get up for a divisional rival in November, in blustery New Jersey no less. The road team usually prospers in this matchup but now might be the perfect time to kick the Eagles while they’re down. (As long as the line doesn’t keep going up, that is. (At some point the Giants stop being a value, even against a fading Philadelphia team.)

Titans +6 @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET
This line is way too high. The Titans enter the week with an extra spring in their step following the news of Matt Schaub’s season-ending surgery. They have a perfect opportunity to catch the Texans in the AFC South if they play well and Houston folds with Matt Leinart under center. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which their head coach Mike Smith blew it by going for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 29-yard-line in overtime. (Which set the Saints up with primo field position.) Atlanta is a conservative team by nature and with Chris Johnson heating up the Titans should be able to keep this game close throughout.

Bengals +7 @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET
If you can figure out how the Ravens perceive the Bengals then this line should be easy to figure out. Baltimore has been playing up (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Houston) and down (Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona) to its competition all year. So if the Ravens view the Bengals as a team that is standing in their way of potentially winning the AFC North, then I would lay the 7 points. But if they view Cincinnati as a wounded (top corner Leon Hall is out for the year and star receiver A.J. Green is banged up) poser that didn’t have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh last week, then I’d take the points with the Bengals. Or better yet? Just lay off this game completely. I personally think that 7 points is a lot in a divisional game but if the Ravens are ticked off from their loss last week to Seattle then they could roll.

2011 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads:

Thursday, November 17, 2011
Jets –6 (40.5)
Broncos +6

Sunday, November 20, 2011
Panthers +7 (47.5)
Lions –7

Bucs +14 (49)
Packers –14

Cowboys –9 (41.5)
Redskins +9

Bills +1 (43)
Dolphins –1

Jaguars –1 (34.5)
Browns +1

Raiders –1 (45)
Vikings +1

Bengals +7 (40.5)
Ravens –7

Seahawks +1 (39)
Rams –1

Cardinals +9.5 (41.5)
49ers –9.5

Chargers +3.5 (45)
Bears –3.5

Titans +6 (44)
Falcons –6

Eagles +4.5 (47)
Giants –4.5

Monday, November 21, 2011
Chiefs +14.5 (47.5)
Patriots –14.5

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

- Carlos Rogers is having a resurgence in San Francisco? People left this guy for dead coming out of Washington and all he’s done this year is be the Niners’ best cornerback. He clinched the Niners’ win over the Giants in my eyes. San Francisco had just taken a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter when he picked off Eli Manning (his second of the day) deep in Niner territory. A couple plays later Kendall Hunter raced 17 yards for a touchdown in order to give San Fran a 27-13 lead in an eventual 27-20 victory. The Niners have been getting big plays like that out of their defense all season. They obviously proved today that they’re for real.

- Do you know who’s not for real? The Buffalo Bills. I have zero confidence that they’ll turn things around, party because of their defense and partly because of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone knew Buffalo’s defense would be overmatched most Sundays and they have been. And everyone knew Fitzpatrick was only going to lead the Bills so far. He was brutal last week and even worse today. It’s struck midnight on this fairytale, which is a shame because I could watch Fred Jackson run all day. Dude is siiiick.

- The Cardinals parted with a starting cornerback in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a second-round pick in 2012, and $65 million in order secure Kevin Kolb as their starting quarterback this season. And John Skelton has two of their three wins on the season. Incredible.

- If you looked hard enough, you probably saw the Ravens’ loss to Seattle coming. Baltimore just swept Pittsburgh and had to travel cross-country to play a Seahawks team that is usually competitive at home. I figured the Ravens would suffer a letdown but the fact that they didn’t lead at any point today was a little jarring. With losses to Tennessee and Seattle as well as a near loss to Arizona at home, it would appear as though John Harbaugh’s team plays down to its competition.

- Speaking of the clock turning Midnight, it’s probably about time the Bengals come back to earth. Don’t get me wrong: they fought hard today against Pittsburgh and gave the Steelers a game until the end. But cornerback Leon Hall looks like he’s out for the season and I just don’t see Cincinnati being able to finish this race on top. That said, the Bengals certainly have something to build off of. Andy Dalton was poised today and A.J. Green is a freaking star in the making.

- Does anyone else feel like the Houston Texans are the NFL equivalent to the Clemson Tigers? You keep waiting for both teams to eventually crash and burn and yet, both keep winning. Granted, Clemson did lose to Georgia Tech a couple of weeks ago and almost dropped its second game to Wake Forest on Saturday but still, you get the point. I keep waiting for the Texans to eventually stumble and they keep racking up double-digit wins without Andre Johnson. Finally, it would seem, we’ll get to see Houston in the postseason.

- If you’re one of the people who is defending Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth and one from his own 29-yard line in overtime, let me remind you that it’s simple risk vs. reward. If the Falcons pick up that first down, they still have at least 40 yards to go to get into field goal range to possibly win the game. If they don’t pick up the first down, well, we saw what happened when they didn’t. It was a stupid call by a head coach that was simply trying to get lucky. Smith and Mike Mularkey played not to lose the entire game and all of a sudden they decide that they’re going to take a big risk. It was just a stupid decision by a team without a true identity.

- Saint Peters of Joseph, Chris Johnson is alive.

- Huge win for the Saints today but there’s still something off with the boys from Naw’lins. They managed to squander a 10-point lead in under five minutes and if it hadn’t been for Mike Smith’s stupid decision to go for it in overtime, who knows if they would have walked out of the Georgia Dome with a victory. I have no doubt that they’ll win the NFC South because the Falcons still don’t know what they are offensively. But I’m not sure if the Saints can go into Green Bay in the playoffs and win a huge game on the road. Again, there’s just something off.

- You can always count on Michael Vick to mail it in when his team is seemingly out of playoff contention. Granted, his receivers didn’t do him any favors by dropping the ball multiple times in the first half and he was without DeSean Jackson, who was benched after missing a team meeting. But Vick looked completely turned off by the thought of playing football today. In a lot of ways, he is the exact same player as he was in Atlanta and Philadelphia is now paying for his shortcomings as a player. (UPDATE: Apparently Vick played with two broken ribs, which he sustained on the game’s second play. Thus, I take back what I said about him mailing it in. Any player that stays in a professional football game with two broken ribs has a bigger pair than I do. Well done, Mike.)

- Tim Tebow threw eight passes, completed just two of them and was the winning quarterback today in Kansas City. I don’t even care what his numbers are outside of the fact that he’s now 3-1 as the starter. I just want to sit back and watch guys like Phil Simms’ head explode that Tebow keeps winning. These talking heads want to debate about whether or not Tebow will ever be a good passer. That was never a debate. People have said from the start that his motion is too funky for him to be a good passer and yet these media members keep boasting about how he’ll fail. And yet…3-1 as a starter. I love it. Nobody can explain how the dinosaurs became extinct and how Tebow is winning. Tim Tebow: #winning.

- I realize the Niners are a very good football team but leave it to the Giants to beat the Patriots on the road and then erase a lot of the good vibes that have surrounded New York the past week by losing today. Freakin’ Giants.

- The NFC South is now a one-team race. The Saints are clearly the best team in the division, as the Falcons are still suffering an identity crisis and the Bucs are just plain bad. Tampa Bay’s front office thought it could get by without making any significant upgrades in the offseason and figured the team would just win 10 games again. Whoops. Turns out Josh Freeman is going to need more help, Bucs.

- This comment was made by one of our regular readers, Jester of the Apocalypse, earlier this week. He’s a huge Browns fan and was commenting on my Week 10 preview in which I wrote, “this is a game [vs. the Rams] the Browns should win.” Said Jester: You underestimate my Brownies knack for clutching defeat out of the jaws of victory . . . How absolutely, positively appropriate given the debacle that happened in Cleveland today.

- Even after their performance today I’m still not sold on the Cowboys. Outside of their miraculous victory against the Niners in Week 2, they still haven’t beaten a team of substance. I realize the Bills have a winning record but they’re on a downslide. Three weeks ago the ‘Boys were pummeled by a Philadelphia team that has clearly given up on the season and their other losses have coming against New England, Detroit and the Jets. That said, Dallas still has games against Washington, Miami, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia and thus, the playoffs are still well within their reach. I’m just sayin’ I’m not sold. And this is coming from a guy who predicted them to win the NFC East this year.

- Wow Matthew Stafford was bad today. Granted, he was playing with a fractured index finger and 25-30mph wind gusts but still – wow. Two of his four interceptions were taken back for touchdowns by the Bears, who are now suddenly 6-3 on the season following two huge wins. If Chicago’s offense line can continue to play as well as it has, there’s no reason to believe Lovie Smith’s team won’t make it as a Wild Card.

- All I want for Thanksgiving is for Larry Fitzgerald to have a quarterback willing to throw him the ball every down. Because his seven-catch, 146-yard, two-touchdown performance today proved once again that he can completely take over a game if he gets enough opportunities.

- One week later, the Steelers finally get their big defensive stop to preserve a win.

- Two of the Seahawks’ three wins this year have come against the Giants and Ravens. And yet, they lose to the Browns, 6-3. The NFL is a funny league.

Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
There are a couple of really good matchups on this week’s schedule, including Ravens-Steelers, Bucs-Saitns and Packers-Chargers. But none of them compare to this one when you think about the intrigue surrounding this game. Not only were the Giants the ones to ruin the Patriots’ perfect season back in 2007, but New England is also coming off a loss and Bill Belichick never loses when coming off a loss. But for whatever reason, New York has had New England’s number over the years. Could you imagine how burned Belichick would be if the Giants were the ones to end his non-consecutive losing streak? Game…of…the…week.

Ravens @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET
It doesn’t get much better than this, especially when you considering how hot the Steelers are and how badly the Ravens beat Pittsburgh in Baltimore in Week 1. The Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots but Pittsburgh and Baltimore always get up for each other so don’t expect Mike Tomlin’s squad to suffer a letdown. But can Ben Roethlisberger bounce back from his rough Week 1 performance in order to create even more of a divide between these two teams in the AFC North? After brutal matchup after brutal matchup for the Sunday Night Football gang, finally NBC gets a good game.

Bears @ Eagles, 8:30PM ET, Monday
Are the Eagles back? That’s the question on everyone’s mind. They might be but don’t forget Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears, which includes losing 31-26 in Chicago last season. For whatever reason, Vick has never been able to get the best of Brian Urlacher and with the Bears having two weeks to prepare for this game, it’ll be interesting to see how Philly plays following its 34-7 dismantling of Dallas last Sunday.

Bucs @ Saints, 1:00PM ET
I wouldn’t want to be Raheem Morris’ Bucs this weekend. Not only are the Saints steamed that they lost to Tampa three weeks ago but they’re also coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Rams last Sunday. No wonder oddsmakers set the spread at New Orleans –9 despite the fact that this is a divisional game and should be close. If the Bucs can drum up some pressure on Drew Brees using their front four and force turnovers, Tampa could hand New Orleans its second straight loss. But I wouldn’t count on the Bucs pulling off the upset. The Saints have been a different team at home this year. A 62-7-type of team.

Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
We’re about to see what Norv Turner’s squad is made of. They had a win in the bag on Monday night before Philip Rivers fumbled it away and now the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions come in this Sunday. San Diego’s pass rush has been very good this season but its secondary has been picked apart at times. If the Chargers can get after Aaron Rodgers then there’s no reason to think that San Diego can’t pull off the upset – especially at home. But on the other side of the ball, if the Chargers can’t get their running game going then Rodgers may eventually start to pick apart the Bolts’ secondary. This is an extremely interesting matchup.

Jets @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
What a great matchup this will be between one of the best passing attacks in the league and one of the best pass defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense have moved the ball through the air at will but the Jets don’t wilt in coverage. That said, Rex Ryan better get more consistency out of his pass rush or else the Bills could walk away with yet another divisional win. The Jets can’t afford another divisional loss on their record.

Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons have a great opportunity to right the ship after a slow start. If they beat the Colts on Sunday, they’d be 5-3 heading into their big showdown with the Saints next week. But beware the trap. The Saints overlooked the Rams last Sunday and we all saw what happened. Because of the conservative ways of Mike Smith and OC Mike Mularkey, the Falcons have tendency to leave opponents in games. If they allow the Colts to stick around at home, there’s no reason Indy can’t pull off the upset. Atlanta better use New Orleans’ loss to St. Louis last Sunday as a warning of what could happen if it doesn’t come to play this weekend.

Dolphins @ Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Amazing isn’t it? Over a month ago the Chiefs were 0-3 (and an ugly 0-3 to boot) and seemingly seconds away from firing coach Todd Haley. Now they’re 4-3 following a four-game win streak and have forced a three-way tie in the AFC West. With the hapless Dolphins in town this Sunday, KC has a chance to claim first place by itself if the Chargers (vs. Packers) and Raiders (vs. Broncos) both fall. Thanks to a stingy run defense and a better-than-average passing game, the Chiefs have remained competitive.

Browns @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
It’s time for Houston to push the pedal directly to the floor as it tries to run away with the AFC South. The Titans are hanging around but the Texans proved two weeks ago that they’re clearly the better team. But Houston has had major second half issues over the years and often underachieves in its final eight games. This weekend’s contest versus Cleveland is a nice test for the Texans. The Browns may be an inferior opponent but they won’t roll over either. Their defense, particularly their run defense, has played very well this season and they’ve been good in coverage as well. If they could get more explosive plays from their offense they’d be tough to deal with every Sunday. The Texans must show that they’re beyond the mental lapses that have haunted this team over the years.

49ers @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
These are two teams heading in opposite directions. While the Niners continue to put a stranglehold on the NFC West crown, the Redskins have lost three straight and are an absolute mess offensively. Washington has been ravaged by injuries, most notably at running back where Tim Hightower is out for the season and at receiver, where Santana Moss will miss the next few weeks after having surgery on his hand. And when you don’t have a capable quarterback to lift you out of the wreckage, you get what you had last week in Toronto (a 23-0 loss to the Bills). That said, if Jim Harbaugh’s team starts reading its own press clippings, don’t be surprised if Mike Shanahan figures it out for one week and pulls off the upset. He’s certainly capable.

Seahawks @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
When the Cowboys lost to the Patriots in Week 5, the Rams were there in Week 6. After losing to the Eagles last Sunday in embarrassing fashion, the Seahawks come to town this weekend to cure Dallas’ woes. After playing the Bills next Sunday, the Cowboys will have the Redskins, Dolphins and Cardinals to recover. My point is that this Dallas team seems destined for 8-8. Beat the bad teams, lose to the good ones. Unless Jerry Jones’ team raises its game against the better opponents, then you can pretty much predict the rest of the Cowboys’ wins and losses this season.

Bengals @ Titans, 4:05PM ET
We’re about to find out what the Bengals are made of over this next month. The Titans are certainly beatable but they want to keep pace with the Texans in the AFC South so they won’t be pushovers this Sunday. Then Cincinnati hosts the Steelers next weekend before traveling to Baltimore, hosting the Browns and then playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. Given the way their defense has played to this point, there’s no reason to think the Bengals can’t fight for a Wild Card spot in the AFC. But what happens when Andy Dalton has to face one of the best defenses in the league? The Bengals managed just eight points at home against San Francisco in Week 3 so what will happen when they face the likes of Baltimore and Pittsburgh? We’ll find out soon enough.

Broncos @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
If Tim Tebow plays as poorly this week as he did last Sunday against the Lions then John Fox might not have much choice but to send him back to the bench. Meanwhile, it’ll be interesting to see how Carson Palmer fares following his ugly debut with the Raiders two weeks ago. He had the bye week to get up to speed but now Oakland needs him to hit the ground running. They’re currently tied with the Chargers and the Chiefs in what has turned out to be an exciting race in the AFC West so it’s time for Palmer to step up (especially when you consider how much the Raiders gave up to acquire him from Cincinnati).

Rams @ Cardinals, 4:15PM ET
This matchup has all the intrigue of watching paint dry. Not only are both teams 1-6 but both quarterbacks are also questionable with various injuries. Sam Bradford is still dealing with a high ankle sprain while Kevin Kolb is battling a turf toe injury. If it’s A.J. Feeley versus John Skelton then the Cardinals might as well give tickets away and make their money off of parking and beer. This game would have been perfect for all the brutal matchups that were on display last week.

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.

- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.

- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- Hey Andy Reid, this is why you don’t hire your offensive line coach as your defensive coordinator. I realize that’s kind of harsh because it’s not like Juan Castillo is the only reason the Eagles are now 1-4 after losing today in Buffalo. (After all, it’s not Castillo’s fault that Michael Vick is careless with the football or can’t manage a clock near halftime.) But there’s no way the Eagles’ defense should be this bad. I don’t want to take anything away from Buffalo because its offense can score on anyone. But Reid’s decision to hire Castillo looks like a massive miscalculation. MASSIVE.

- Mark Sanchez has to raise the level of his play if the Jets are going to succeed this season. For the past two years the Jets have relied on their rushing game and defense to make the playoffs, where Sanchez has been very good. But this year has had a different feel to it for New York. The defense hasn’t been as good and the ground game has been non-existent. Thus, 166 yards against one of the lowest ranked defenses in the league just isn’t going to cut it. He was very good on the 85-yard drive in the second half to cut New England’s lead to 27-21, but that was the only time he looked sharp all day. If Sanchez doesn’t start playing as well in the regular season as he does in the postseason, the Jets won’t make the playoffs this year. That’s just the bottom line for Rex Ryan‘s struggling team, which has lost three in a row after starting the year 2-0.

- What in God’s name was Matt Schaub thinking on the Texans’ final play? He could have waltzed into the end zone from inside the Raiders’ 5-yard line but he gave the game away instead by throwing an interception to Michael Huff. Schaub is going to think about that pass all week.

- Nobody saw them being blown out 48-3 but the Bucs’ loss to the 49ers was hardly surprising. Tampa certainly had some built in excuses coming into Sunday’s action (i.e. a short week, a cross-country trip), but I don’t think the Bucs were as good as their 3-1 record indicated. Their offense lacks explosion, their run blocking hasn’t been good, and opponents can take advantage of their pass defense just like Alex Smith (three touchdowns) and San Francisco did today. The Bucs’ run defense apparently wasn’t up to snuff either, as Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. At 3-2 Tampa is still in good shape but I don’t think this was a loss that Raheem Morris can just chalk up to a bad day. The Bucs have issues that need to be corrected if they want to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

- The Panthers deserve more praise than criticism for hanging with the Saints today, but what was Ron Rivera and his coaching staff thinking when they took a timeout with two seconds remaining in the first half? The Saints were trying frantically to get their field goal team on the field and Carolina saved them the trouble by calling a time out. Naturally, John Kasay made the kick to give New Orleans a 20-13 halftime lead in a game they eventually rallied to win by? You guessed it: Three points.

- Considering how many issues the Vikings have had in the second half of games this year, one would have thought Leslie Frazier would have kept his foot on the gas towards the conclusion of the first half today against Arizona. But instead of trying to increase their lead by pushing the ball up field, Frazier and the Vikings were content with a 28-3 lead. They were promptly booed by the home crowd, which chanted Christian Ponder’s name heading into the locker room. Only the Vikings could make fans uneasy with a sizable lead.

- Peter King speculated on “Football Night in America” that Mario Williams “probably” tore his pectoral muscle in the Texans’ loss to the Raiders on Sunday. That would be a massive blow to a team that lost its best offensive player a week ago when Andre Johnson hurt his hamstring against the Steelers. Suddenly the AFC South looks like a crapshoot.

“CHAMPIONSHIP”…

- All week I wrote about how the Bills’ loss to the Bengals last Sunday was an aberration. They got caught with their pants down but they obviously learned from it. The Eagles made a ton of mistakes today but let’s not take credit away from a Buffalo team that everyone completely overlooked coming into the season. It wasn’t hard to figure that Fred Jackson would have a big day against Philadelphia’s pathetic run defense and that he did, rushing for 111 yards with a couple of good-sized runs. I’ll be honest, part of me has been waiting for the Bills’ play to fall off but I’m over that notion. This Buffalo team isn’t going anywhere.

- Bill Belichick works in mysterious ways doesn’t he? For weeks the Patriots have kept the ball in the air against opponents while BenJarvus Green-Ellis has largely been an afterthought in the offense. In fact, Stevan Ridley was starting to garner some attention has a better option than Green-Ellis in the ground game. Yet with the Jets in town today, Green-Ellis rushes for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns as the Patriots defeated their AFC East rivals, 30-21. Granted, Tom Brady (24-of-33 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and the passing game was still highly active but the game was clearly on Green-Ellis’ shoulders. This is one of the many reasons why Belichick is so good. He doesn’t forget about any of his weapons and if he sees a weakness that he can exploit, he attacks it. He also knows how to feed the hot hand and he doesn’t over think the game as it plays out. Some may disagree but he has the best mind in football in my eyes.

- It’s not like I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but I’ve been really impressed with the Bengals. Yeah, beating the Jaguars and their rookie starting quarterback isn’t earth-shattering news. But who does Cincinnati have starting under center? Andy Dalton, a rookie quarterback, whose main playmaker is a rookie receiver in A.J. Green who has received less attention than Julio Jones and yet is producing week in and week out. The Bengals showed a lot of poise down 20-16 in the fourth quarter on Sunday and rallying to beat the Jaguars. Who would have thought that Cincinnati would be 3-2 with the mess of an offseason they had?

- Championship? Not quite, but the Chiefs do have a pulse after winning their second straight game. Matt Cassel was outstanding in Kansas City’s comeback over Indianapolis, completing 21-of-29 passes for 257 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t want to get carried away after one game but this is the type of performance out of Cassel that shows people that he can be a serviceable starter.

- There’s no need to overreact to his performance today because he’ll probably go back to his inconsistent ways next week, but Alex Smith was very efficient in the Niners’ 48-3 win over the Bucs. It was nice to see him react to the pressure instead of lo0king for it and then making mistakes. He kept his eyes downfield, didn’t stare down receivers and finally played with a sense of purpose. It helped that Tampa’s pass rush is weak and Frank Gore was gashing the Bucs on the ground, but let’s give credit were credit is due. Smith was very good.

- The Giants deserve to be ridiculed for their embarrassing loss to the Seahawks but Victor Cruz was nearly unstoppable today. He turned his 11 targets into eight receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown, and made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Just think, we may have never seen what this kid could do had the Giants not suffered as many injuries to their receiving corps. Not that I want to see anyone get hurt but Cruz has been really fun to watch the past couple weeks.

Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
THE PICK: BILLS +3

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 5-11

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.