Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

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Last week, several teams’ playoff hopes took major hits as key players all left their respective games due to various injuries.

The Broncos (Kyle Orton), Falcons (Michael Turner), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Bengals (Cedric Benson) seem to be bitten he hardest by the injury bug but which injury should concern their respective teams the most? Let’s break down all four situations.

Broncos: Without Orton, Denver stands little chance of beating the Chargers at home this Sunday and even less of a chance of winning the AFC West. Orton isn’t Peyton Manning, but he might as well be the Broncos’ version of the star Colts’ QB because Chris Simms proved last week that he isn’t capable of keeping Denver afloat if Orton misses significant time. Now maybe with more preparation Simms will be better, but chances are the Broncos’ hopes of making the playoffs will fall flat with him under center. Orton says that he will play this weekend, even though he has torn ligaments in his left ankle. He admitted last year that he shouldn’t have tried to grit out a right ankle injury when he was playing for the Bears, so there’s a chance that he’s about to make the same mistake twice. This Sunday will be a good indication of how severe Orton’s injury really is.

Falcons: After getting off to a slow start, Turner was back in 2008 form the past couple weeks and even compiled 111 yards on only nine carries against the Panthers last Sunday before suffering a high ankle sprain. Usually those types of injuries take months to heel, but the Falcons don’t seem concerned about Turner missing more than a couple of weeks. The problem is that the Falcons are in the midst of a Wild Card chase in the NFC and they need their bruising back on the field – especially as Matt Ryan continues to struggle in his second year. Atlanta has capable backups in Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, but the latter can’t stay healthy and the former doesn’t have much experience. If Ryan can step up and prove he can lead the Falcons through the air, then Turner can rest up and be ready in time for a late-season run. If Ryan falters again like he has been, then Turner might feel the need to rush back from his injury sooner than he (or the team) intends.

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Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

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Jay Glazer of FOXSports.com reports that Michael Turner has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, although the Falcons are apparently “very optimistic” that the injury won’t keep their star back out too long.

High ankle sprains can sideline players for as little as 2-3 weeks or as long as six months depending on the severity of the injury. In Turner’s case, it sounds like he’ll only be out a couple of weeks but who knows at this point. The Falcons will be fighting for a playoff spot the rest of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Turner came back earlier than expected.

Atlanta has two capable backs in Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling, although the former can never stay healthy. Norwood has battled concussions and a hip injury for much of the season and hasn’t spent a lot of time on the field.

When healthy, Norwood is a lighting rod and a threat to score every time he gets his hands on the ball, while Snelling looked good on Sunday in the team’s loss to the Panthers. He’s kind of a poor man’s Turner in that he’s a load to bring down, but he has surprising quickness and is a good receiver out of the backfield.

The Falcons could certainly do worse than a combination of Snelling and Norwood – much worse. But the problem is that if Norwood can’t stay healthy, Snelling isn’t the same back as Turner is. He’s more than serviceable, but he’s never been counted on to carry the full load, so Norwood has to recover quickly or else the Falcons’ season could slip away in a hurry.

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For anyone that has actually devoted some time watching Matt Ryan over the past month, it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t look like a completely different quarterback than he did last year – or even at the start of this season. He bails out of plays, he overthrows receivers and he looks frightened in the pocket.

It appears that the dreaded sophomore slump has officially sacked “Matty Ice.”

During the Falcons’ 28-19 loss to the Panthers on Sunday, Ryan looked uncomfortable for most of the first half. He threw a horrible interception just before halftime that led to a Carolina touchdown, which put Atlanta behind 21-10. Then late in the game with the Falcons needing a field goal to take the lead, he again was picked off after he forced a pass downfield to a double-covered Michael Jenkins.

In both cases, Ryan not only made poor throws, but poor decisions – something that didn’t plague him last season.

Of course, Ryan had nothing to do with Jason Elam missing a chip shot field goal one possession before the critical interception. Had Elam made the field goal, the Falcons would have had the opportunity to stop Carolina and eek out a much-needed division win. Instead, Elam shanked the kick like someone with money on the Panthers and put his team in an awful situation.

Getting back to Ryan, he really has no excuse for playing as poorly as he has, because the running game has been productive (unlike earlier in the season when the passing game had to carry the Falcons). Michael Turner (nine carries, 111 yards) suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half and couldn’t return, but Jason Snelling picked up the slack in his place and Ryan just couldn’t deliver. The running game should allow Ryan to make more plays in the passing game but he just hasn’t made the throws.

The Falcons have a great opportunity to earn a Wild Card in the NFC, but they can’t do it if Ryan continues to play as poorly as he has. He needs to rekindle the magic that helped him win the Rookie of the Year Award, or second half collapse for Atlanta is certainly possible.

As for the Panthers, they’re starting to get back to what they did last year: Run the ball and play good defense. It also helps when Jake Delhomme isn’t trying to give games away by throwing the ball to the other team and generally being useless.

With this win, the Panthers have gotten back into contention for the NFC Wild Card.

Update: Turner’s injury could be serious. If he’s out for any extended length of time, the Falcons’ season could be in danger, especially considering Jerious Norwood hasn’t played in weeks due to injuries.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Thanks to Kyle Orton’s terrific Monday night performance against Pittsburgh and Green Bay’s outstanding effort in Tampa, I took one on the chin last week to go 2-3. Law of averages says I get things right this week, right? Right?!

Here are my top four plays for Sunday.

Bengals (6-2) at Steelers (6-2), 1:00PM ET
I don’t see the Bengals sweeping the Steelers this season, but Cincinnati isn’t getting enough respect. Their defense is legit and they have the secondary to matchup with a team like the Steelers that likes to put the ball in the air. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco have played well this season and should be able to keep the Bengals in the game. For as good as the Steelers are and as much as they’ll get up for a division rival like the Bengals who have already beaten them once this season, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after earning an emotional win in Denver. In the end, I think the Steelers defense won’t wilt like they did in the fourth quarter of the first contest, but this game is going to be closer than the odds would indicate.
Odds: Steelers –7.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 16.

Saints (8-0) at Rams (1-7), 1:00PM ET
The Saints haven’t covered in two weeks as double-digit favorites and while some bettors might think now is the perfect time to back a Rams team coming off a bye and getting 13.5 points at home, I would caution them. The Falcons and Panthers played the Saints tough because they’re familiar with New Orleans and divisional games are always closer than people think. It’s about time Drew Brees touches another opponent up for three or four scores and this is the perfect weekend to do going against a suspect St. Louis secondary. Actually, the Rams defense isn’t as bad as many think and they might be able to hang with New Orleans in the first half. But the Rams’ offense is putrid and the Saints’ defense has preyed on their opponents’ mistakes all season. I fully expect Sean Payton’s team to romp and I’ll gladly eat the chalk.
Odds: Saints –13.5.
Prediction: Saints 37, Rams 10.

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Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL with nine weeks in the books:

1. New Orleans Saints (8-0)
Nobody should be surprised that the Falcons and Panthers gave the Saints issues at home the past two weeks. After all, Atlanta and Carolina are familiar with New Orleans since they play them twice a year. The real story is how the Saints never panicked when they got down early and outplayed both the Falcons and Panthers in the fourth quarter.

2. Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
The Colts have the eighth best defense in the NFL, which is rather remarkable given that starters Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson haven’t played much at all. Dwight Freeney has terrorized opposing quarterbacks this season.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
Heading into the second half of the season, the only question I have about these Vikings is whether or not Brett Favre will stay healthy enough to lead this team deep into the playoffs. Last year, he couldn’t and the Jets tanked in the final month of the season.

4. New England Patriots (6-2)
We’ll get a great idea of how good this Patriots team is this weekend when they travel to Indianapolis to take on the undefeated Colts. Bill Belichick better figure out a way to get Dwight Freeney blocked so Tom Brady can build off the momentum he has created the past three games.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
I get the feeling that people keep waiting for the Bengals to cave and sink back to reality. Those folks will be waiting a while because this team is underrated, not overrated. A win this week in Pittsburgh and everyone will be believers.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Jon Gruden hit the nail on the head when he said on Monday night that the Steelers close out games better than anyone in the league. One of the rare times they didn’t close out a team was earlier this season in Cincinnati, when the Bengals beat them on a last-second touchdown. They’ll get a chance to avenge that loss this Sunday in Pittsburgh, as well as take a one-game lead in the AFC North if they can pull off a win.

7. Denver Broncos (6-2)
I’m not ready to suggest that Denver is overrated or will start to freefall, but it is a little troubling that they’ve played two good teams the past two weeks and were beaten soundly in both contests. It’s time for Josh McDaniels to prove that he can make adjustments and Kyle Orton needs to take better care of the ball when his team is trailing.

8. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Given all their talent, I want to believe that the Cowboys have turned the corner under Wade Phillips. But this isn’t the first time in the past couple years where they’ve stringed together a couple of good outings to get people to believe. Their win in Philadelphia was awfully impressive, but they need to prove that they can sustain their momentum.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
The Eagles had an opportunity to make a statement at home against the Cowboys last Sunday night and failed. Hopefully Brian Westbrook will return soon, because Philly’s offense can look stagnant at times without him.

10. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Michael Turner started hearing the words “one-year wonder” being tossed around a couple weeks ago and didn’t like it. He’s responded with two 150-plus rushing performances and has looked like the back he did last year. It’s a good thing too, because Matt Ryan hasn’t played well since Atlanta’s win in San Francisco four weeks ago.

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According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, running back LaDainian Tomlinson is likely playing his last season for the Chargers.

LaDainian Tomlinson is still a player who can help the Chargers win, but it seems clear he can no longer win games for them and is likely closing out his final season in San Diego.

The Chargers are averaging 3.1 yards a carry, worst in the NFL. And unless they can start getting some leads and let Tomlinson and others pound the ball while the line gets in a rhythm, that doesn’t look to get much better.

Sunday was the fourth time this season the Chargers rushed 21 times or fewer. They are on pace to rush just 364 times, which would be their fewest since 2000 and third-lowest total ever.

Tomlinson is a player who has served the Chargers incredibly well over his career and it was good to see San Diego rework his contract in the offseason. But it’s been apparent the past two seasons that he’s running on empty and as the article suggests, it looks like his time in San Diego is coming to an end.

That said, in LT’s defense the offensive line hasn’t been good either. The holes just aren’t there like they have been in years past and LT isn’t the only one suffering from it: Darren Sproles is only averaging 3.5 YPC, which is only a mild improvement over Tomlinson’s 3.2 YPC. I still don’t see the same explosion and decision-making out of LT as I did in previous years, but the O-line has played a part in Tomlinson’s decline.

If the Chargers do decide to part ways with LT, they need to find a back that can run between the tackles in the offseason because they could pair him with Sproles to form a nice 1-2 combo. They need a back that can wear opponents down throughout the course of games, because they don’t have that now and their offense remains unbalanced.

Looking back at things, it probably would have been wise to hang onto Michael Turner and part ways with LT, but how would the Chargers know that Tomlinson would break down the past two years? They probably had an idea that his time as a primary back was winding down, but they weren’t going to cut him before last season and pay Turner at the same time. It was unfortunate timing that Turner became a free agent when he did.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Here are my top 5 picks for Week 9 against the spread. As usual, fade at will…

Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1), 8:30PM ET, Monday
This game set up nicely for the Steelers, who have won four in a row, are coming off a bye and are playing a Denver team that was thumped last Sunday by the Ravens. But I fully expect Josh McDaniels and the Broncos to learn from their loss last week to Baltimore and rebound on Monday night. Denver is always a tough place to play – just ask the Cowboys and Patriots, whom the Broncos beat earlier this year at Invesco Field. I don’t expect Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to have a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s excellent defense, but I do think Denver’s defense will force a couple turnovers to set the offense up in good field position. Linebacker Elvis Dumervil has been a beast this season and Ben Roethlisberger has always had trouble holding onto the ball. While some will start to doubt the Broncos after last week, I’m holding strong that this is a good football team and will prove it with a small upset Monday night.
Odds: Steelers –3.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Steelers 17.

Texans (5-3) at Colts (7-0), 1:00PM ET
This game has trap written all over it. The Texans have won three straight and four of their last five, while the Colts finally looked beatable last week in their 18-14 win over the 49ers. Your head and gut tell you that Houston will be able to hang with Indy this weekend and at the very least cover the 9-point spread, if not win outright. But don’t be fooled – the Colts are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Colts and have covered in six of those 10 games. While the ATS trends aren’t impressive, Peyton Manning should have his way with an improving, but suspect Houston defense at home. With Bob Sanders sidelined again, the Texans should score, but it’s not like Indy isn’t used to not having Sanders on the field. This one will be a little bit of a shoot out, but I see the Colts winning by a decent margin in the end.
Odds: Colts –9.
Prediction: Colts 35, Texans 24.

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