I’ve already mentioned the “Curse of 370,” but Michael Turner is facing yet another challenge this season — a much tougher schedule.

Here’s a look at Turner’s performance last year against good, mediocre and bad rush defenses:

- In three games against top 10 rush defenses (Chicago, Philly and Minnesota), Turner averaged 20.3 carries for 60.7 yards and 0.3 TD, which translates to 8.1 fantasy points.

- In seven games against teams ranked #11-#20 in rush defense (New Orleans x 2, Carolina x 2, Tampa Bay x 2, and San Diego), Turner averaged 23.4 carries for 92.0 yards and 1.0 TD, which equals 15.2 fantasy points.

- In six games agains teams ranked #21 to #32 in rush defense (Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay and Oakland), Turner averaged 25.2 carries for 145.5 yards and 1.5 TD, which is 23.5 fantasy points.

In short, Turner killed poor rush defenses, did pretty well against mediocre defenses and struggled against good ones. That makes sense, right?

Heading into the 2009 season, Turner’s schedule is shaping up to be tougher. He has six matchups with teams that finished in the top 10 last year, nine matchups with teams that finished #11-#20, and just one game against a team that finished #22-#32 (#22 Buffalo). On average, he’s going from a schedule that has an average rank of 19.3 against the rush to one that has an average rank of 13.6. Not good.

So assuming that Turner has the same averages against each of the three groups, and last year’s finish is a reasonable expectation for how these defenses will fair (a big assumption, I know), then Turner would project to 358 carries for 1338 yards and 13 TD. Those are still good numbers, but a far cry from the 1699 yards and 17 TD he posted last year.

Assuming he continues to be a non-factor in the Atlanta passing game (and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, this is not a big assumption), and posts another six catches for 41 yards, then these rushing and receiving totals translate to 221 fantasy points (in a high performance PPR league). That would have made him RB15 last year.

I still like Turner — hell, I have him in a keeper league, so I’m rooting for the guy — but I just don’t think he’s first round material this season in PPR leagues.

Michael Turner carried the ball 376 times last season, which is a bad omen if you believe in the “Curse of 370.”

The stat was “discovered” by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004.

The “370 Curse” has reared its head in the Falcons locker room before.

Running backs who rush for more than 370 carries in a season will either have a significant decline or get hurt the following season. Only one running back, Eric Dickerson, has been able to beat the curse.

After Jamal Anderson powered the Falcons to the Super Bowl with 410 carries in 1998, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1999 and was never the same.

Gerald Riggs ran for 1,719 yards on 397 carries in 1985. He followed up that season with 1,327 yards on 343 carries but although he played five more seasons, he never eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again.

Some of the latest players to succumb the curse include Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, Tennessee’s Eddie George and Miami’s Ricky Williams.

For their part, the Falcons don’t believe Turner was overused, and when they need to run the ball, they’re going to call Turner’s number.

I like Turner this year, but I don’t think he’s going to rack up 370+ carries again this season. Assuming he doesn’t get injured, I expect him to carry the ball 320-350 times. He’s not a big part of the Falcons’ passing game, so that hurts his fantasy stock in PPR leagues.

It’s going to be interesting to see if Turner can avoid the “curse” this season.

We’ll be spending much of our fantasy football preview (coming soon!) highlighting the players who represent good value this year. But while finding a few diamonds in the rough can make or break a fantasy team, it is just as important to pick the right diamond in the first round. Fantasy championships aren’t won in the first round, but they can be lost.

To that end, I’m going to discuss the five RBs that I believe are head and shoulders above the rest. The first three players are as solid as the day is long, and while the last two aren’t quite as dependable, their upside trumps the question marks surrounding their short-term prospects.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports, and it assumes a 12-team league with their high performance scoring system, which includes six points per rush TD and one point per reception.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (1.02)
Sharing time with Fred Taylor for much of his career, MJD has still averaged 1313 total yards, 49 receptions and 12.6 TD over his first three seasons. Even though Taylor seemed to step aside in 2008, he still had 143 carries, which ate into MJD’s touches. The Jacksonville offensive line is finally healthy, and along with new additions Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, the Jags should get much better play up front. With Taylor gone and an easier schedule, all signs point to a career year for Maurice Jones-Drew.
Projected stats: 230 carries, 1035 rushing yards, 12 rush TD; 55 rec, 495 rec yards, 2 rec TD…291 fantasy points

2. Matt Forte, Bears (1.03)
As a rookie, Forte was the top fantasy back in 2008. Kevin Jones has been looking good, and the Bears seem to want to take some of the workload off of their young buck. So I’m predicting a drop in carries and receptions, but not a huge drop. He is one of the league’s best pass-catching backs and with limited options in the passing game, Jay Cutler will have to look Forte’s way early and often. Moreover, the Bears’ O-line looks to be improved with the addition of Orlando Pace, who needs to stay healthy for Forte to drastically improve his pedestrian ypc (3.9).
Projected stats: 269 carries, 1103 rushing yards, 8 rush TD; 57 rec, 433 rec yards, 3 rec TD…277 fantasy points

3. Adrian Peterson, Bears (1.01)
It looks like Brett Favre isn’t going to be under center for the Vikings, so the offense will again be extremely dependent on Peterson’s ability to run the football. Even though he faced a host of eight-man fronts last season, he still averaged 4.8 yards per carry, in no small part because Minny has one of the best offensive lines in football. AP is a threat in the passing game, but the Vikings don’t make much of an effort to get him the ball in space. One downside – he led the league in fumbles (9) in 2008.
Projected stats: 340 carries, 1632 rushing yards, 11 rush TD; 20 rec, 160 rec yards, 1 rec TD…271 fantasy points

4. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (1.06)
LT2 didn’t turn in the kind of season that we were all expecting, but he still had a solid year, finishing as 2008’s RB10. (Had he scored one more TD, he would have been RB6.) He fought through groin and toe injuries, but looks completely healthy now and head coach Norv Turner expects him to challenge for the rushing title. Tomlinson is on the wrong side of 30, and has carried the ball 2657 times in his career. But he’s always been special, so there’s a good chance he can buck the odds and squeeze another top 5 season (or two) out of those old bones.
Projected stats: 260 carries, 1092 rushing yards, 11 rush TD; 45 rec, 338 rec yards, 2 rec TD…266 fantasy points

5. Steven Jackson, Rams (1.05)
Even though he missed (or was limited) in five games in 2008, Jackson still finished the season as RB19 and was one of only five backs – Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush being the other four – to average at least 19 fantasy points per game. Clearly, he’s a top 5 back when healthy, but can he stay healthy? He has missed eight games over the last two seasons, so it’s a legitimate concern. Still, his upside is too good to pass up at 1.05.
Projected stats: 280 carries, 1148 rushing yards, 9 rush TD; 45 rec, 383 rec yards, 2 rec TD…264 fantasy points

You may be wondering where Michael Turner’s name is, but as the Falcons open up the playbook more and more for Matt Ryan (along with the addition of Tony Gonzalez), I don’t think Turner will approach 370 carries again this season. Besides, he’s not involved enough in the Falcons’ passing game to warrant a spot on this list, at least in a PPR league.

Of course, I always reserve the right to change my mind (or my projections), but as it stands today, this is the order in which I would go if I were drafting in a high performance PPR league. In the meantime, be sure to follow “FantasyTips” on Twitter, where we’ll be publishing even more fantasy content as the season gets closer.

Related content: Surprises and Busts: Trying to predict the unpredictable in fantasy football

I’ve been beating this drum on our weekly fantasy football podcasts, but Michael Turner doesn’t run well against teams with good (or even mediocre) run defenses. That may seem intuitive, but he really doesn’t run well against good run defenses. Take a look at his first eight games. (The opposing team’s rank in average rush yards per game is in parenthesis.)

Week 1 – DET (31st): 220 yards, 2 TD
Week 2 – TB (13th): 42 yards
Week 3 – KC (32nd): 104 yards, 3 TD
Week 4 – CAR (14th): 56 yards
Week 5 – GB (27th): 121 yards, TD
Week 6 – CHI (6th): 54 yards
Week 8 – PHI (8th): 58 yards
Week 9 – OAK (30th): 139 yards

So against the Lions, Chiefs, Packers and Raiders (average rank: 30th), Turner posted an average of 146 yards rushing (5.7 ypc) and 1.5 TD. Against the Bucs, Panthers, Bears and Eagles (average rank: 10th), he rushed for an average of 53 yards (2.8 ypc) and zero TD. (Home versus away doesn’t seem to be much of a factor because he has had big games on the road – GB and OAK – as well as at home.)

What does this mean going forward? Well, here is Turner’s upcoming schedule:

Week 10 – NO (18th)
Week 11 – DEN (26th)
Week 12 – CAR (14th)
Week 13 – @ SD (16th)
Week 14 – @ NO (18th)
Week 15 – TB (13th)
Week 16 – @ MIN (2nd)
Week 17 – STL (29th)

Turner has a great matchup in Week 11 against the Broncos, but that enticing matchup against the Rams in Week 17 doesn’t really help most fantasy owners since the playoffs generally wrap up in Week 16. The Panthers and Bucs have already proven they can shut him down, while the Minnesota matchup in Week 16 is especially worrisome assuming the Vikings don’t lose their stud defensive tackles to suspension. That leaves two games against the Saints and one game against the Chargers, two teams that are mediocre against the run. And Turner hasn’t done particularly well against mediocre run defenses.

I just traded Turner away in one league because I’m not optimistic about his chances over the second half of the season. I packaged him with Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber (whom I believe will get back on track once Tony Romo is back under center), Donald Driver and Antonio Gates. I feel like I’m getting an upgrade at RB and TE for a downgrade at WR. Since I also have Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson at wideout, I feel like I can afford to lose Fitzgerald.

Depending on your league’s trade deadline, you may want to think about selling high on Turner as well. He might post good numbers this week against the Saints and he’ll probably run wild against the Broncos in Week 11, so I think he’ll have his highest value after that game. Of course, that won’t help you if your trade deadline is before then.

It’s clear that RB2 duties in New Orleans belong to Deuce McAllister (15 touches, 72 yards). Pierre Thomas saw just three carries (for 18 yards)…The Raiders split touches between Justin Fargas (10 touches, 35 yards) and Darren McFadden (8 touches, 30 yards). Michael Bush saw just four touches (for 13 yards). This appears to be the plan when all three backs are (reasonably) healthy…Thomas Jones (20 touches, 78 yards, 3 TD) finally had a big game, but it’s doubtful that too many fantasy owners were starting him. I like Jones, but the Jets love to throw at the goal line…Chris Perry (13 carries, 14 yards) is playing dreadful football. He failed to score from inside the three yard line and dropped an easy catch…For a guy who’s averaging 5.6 yards a carry, Earnest Graham (5 carries, 11 yards, TD) sure doesn’t get a lot of work. The Bucs were running him at fullback for most of the game…Michael Turner (25 carries, 54 yards) put in another disappointing performance against a good defense. At least he’s predictable…The Baltimore running game was a huge disappointment against a bad Colts rush defense. Willis McGahee got knocked out of the game and his backup, LeRon McClain, only managed three carries (and fumbled once)…Maurice Jones-Drew (24 touches, 148 yards, 2 TD) capitalized on a Fred Taylor injury to post some big numbers. That’s just a glimpse of what he’ll do once Taylor finally retires…Correll Buckhalter (25 touches, 178 yards, TD) looked like Brian Westbrook, Jr…Ryan Grant (33 carries, 90 yards) looked a little better, but still failed to break off any big runs. The holes just aren’t there at the point of attack.