Packers @ Lions, 12:30PM ET, Thursday
I truly believe that it’s Green Bay and then everyone else when it comes to the power structure of the NFL. But don’t think for a second that the Lions can’t beat the Packers on Thanksgiving Day. They’ve been waiting a long time to be strong enough to finally punch the bully back and they’ll have their opportunity tomorrow. The key for Detroit is its front four. If they can rush Aaron Rodgers with only Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, then they’re going to be fine. And with how suspect Green Bay’s defense has been this year, if its still a game in the fourth quarter then the Lions have a shot to pull off the upset.

Dolphins @ Cowboys, 4:15PM ET, Thursday
This is definitely the weakest of the Thanksgiving matchups but this game still offers plenty of intrigue. The Cowboys are now tied with the Giants for first place in the NFC East but they’ve turned in inconsistent performances all season. And during Miami’s three-game winning streak, the Dolphins haven’t allowed a touchdown in 12 quarters. This is going to be a bigger challenge for Tony Romo and Co. than people think.

49ers @ Ravens, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
Forget the Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh stuff – this is a great matchup between two physical teams that will fight for four quarters. The Ravens have been playing up and down to their competition all season and their offense has sputtered at times. On the other side, San Francisco’s defense has been a rock for nine straight weeks but Baltimore’s run defense is outstanding so it’ll be interesting to see how the Niners fare when they have to lean on Alex Smith and the passing game. There doesn’t figure to be much scoring in this game but if you like hard-nosed football, then it doesn’t get better than this.

Vikings @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
This isn’t a very exciting matchup with Adrian Peterson out with an ankle injury but it’ll be interesting to see if the Falcons stay with their no-huddle attack on offense. They ran the no-huddle exclusively in their 23-17 win over the Titans last Sunday and had great success with it (outside of settling for field goals when they reached the red zone, that is). Matt Ryan looks most comfortable running that offense but will OC Mike Mularkey make it Atlanta’s identity on offense? He’s been hesitant to ditch his “smashmouth” approach but at some point the Falcons need to develop more consistency on offense. Maybe running the no-huddle full-time is the answer.

Texans @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
It’s time to see if Matt Leinart has matured as a quarterback. He failed in Arizona because he wasn’t ready to lead a young team with potential (unlike Kurt Warner, who prospered in the situation). Now Leinart is at the controls of a veteran club that has an outstanding running game and a sound defense. Can he manage games and make plays when his number is called or will he crumble under the pressure? In Jacksonville’s defense, he’ll face a stiff test right out of the gates.

Buccaneers @ Titans, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
One of these teams will keep its playoff hopes alive on Sunday while the other could be looking at a long offseason. The Titans remain two games behind the Texans in the AFC South but with Matt Schaub out for the season, Tennessee has a golden opportunity to get back into the divisional race if it can string some wins together. On the other side, the Bucs continue to fall further behind the Saints and Falcons in the NFC South. In some respects, this might as well be an elimination game for these two teams (although more so for the Bucs).

Cardinals @ Rams, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Steve Spagnuolo and Billy Devaney’s jobs seem safe for now in St. Louis. But any more displays like last Sunday and the Rams could be searching for a new head coach and/or general manager this offseason. Sam Bradford and Co. were pitiful on offense in their 24-7 loss to Seattle last weekend.

Browns @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Beware the letdown, Cincinnati. The Bengals are coming off consecutive hard-fought losses to the Steelers and Ravens, and have to play at Pittsburgh next Sunday. With the Browns rolling into town as a 9-point underdog, this smells like a trap game for the Bengals, who already beat the Browns in Cleveland in Week 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati gets caught sleepwalking this Sunday.

Bills @ Jets, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Both of these teams are a complete mess right now. Buffalo looks done as a potential playoff contender and will likely be without star running back Fred Jackson this week. That’s not good news for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was completely flustered the last time he faced the Jets (and that was when Jackson was healthy). On the other side, Mark Sanchez is reportedly seeing fewer snaps in practice this week. He’s a quarterback playing with zero confidence right now and the Jets’ running game is no where to be found so things aren’t magically going to get better in New York. Maybe it is time to see if Mark Burrnell has anything left in the tank.

Panthers @ Colts, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
When I first saw the over/under for this game I was shocked that the total was 45.5. Forty-five and a half? Give me the under! That said, both of these defenses are a steaming pile of donkey dung and Cam Newton is liable to score seven touchdowns on his own. Even though the result of this game means nothing, this could be one of those wild, back-and-forth barnburners that could actually turn out to be pretty fun. (You know, if you generally like bad football and a lot of mistakes.)

Redskins @ Seahawks, 4:05PM ET, Sunday
This game wins my award for “Game in which I would be completely fine not seeing a single snap of.”

Bears @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET, Sunday
The Bears’ playoff hopes are in the hands of Mike Martz, not Caleb Hanie. Chicago has Matt Forte, Devin Hester and a physical, unrelenting defense that is capable of winning games on its own. But if Martz tries to run his offense as if Jay Cutler were still under center, then the Bears are going to die a very quick death. Hanie is too inexperienced for Martz to lean on.

Patriots @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
Just when I thought they were finished the Eagles manage to claw their way back into the spotlight. Vince Young could get the nod to start again if Michael Vick (who isn’t practicing due to a rib injury) can’t go. While he did throw two touchdown passes (including the eventual game-winner), Young was also picked off three times by the Giants last Sunday. He won’t be able to make those kinds of mistakes and hope that Philadelphia’s defense holds New England to only 10 points because its not going to happen. But if Young can rise to the challenge again, then the Eagles could jump right back into the NFC playoff picture with a win.

Broncos @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
Talk about no respect for Denver’s defense or the powers of one Timothy Tebow: the Broncos are 6.5-point underdogs against the Chargers, who have lost four in a row. It’s not hard to understand why people are still reluctant to believe in Tebow, who runs like a Mac truck but throws like an 83-year-old woman with arthritis. But have you seen Denver’s defense play lately? Plus, follow up question: Have you see Philip Rivers play lately? There’s no reason to believe the Broncos can’t march into San Diego this Sunday and pull off another upset.

Steelers @ Chiefs, 8:20PM ET, Sunday
You know, Tyler Palko actually moved the ball with some success against New England last Monday night; he just turned the ball over as soon as he got close enough to sniff the end zone. Kansas City’s defense also played very well despite receiving very little help from the offense. What does this all mean? Noting, really. The Steelers should be well rested coming off their bye and should shut down a struggling Chiefs offense. I just wanted to provide a little optimism for Kansas City.

Giants @ Saints, 8:30PM ET, Sunday
I fully believe that the Giants will beat the Saints on Monday night. Do you know why? They’re not supposed to. And whenever Tom Coughlin’s team is not supposed to win, it turns in its finest performance of the season. See their work as a 9-point underdog against the Eagles in Week 2 or their upset over the Patriots in New England three weeks ago. Conversely, whenever this team is supposed to win handedly (vs. Seahawks, vs. Dolphins, vs. Eagles last week), they monkey-f#%k around for three hours. So yeah, Giants 27, Saints 24.

Four spreads of note:

Jets –6 @ Broncos, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
The spread for this game has danced for three days now. It opened at Jets –5 and then dropped to 4.5. Now it’s all the way up to 6. I’d personally lay the points with New York up to 7 because I think Tim Tebow is going to have a hell of a time scoring on Rex Ryan’s defense. If he struggled three weeks ago against Detroit, then I shudder to think how he’ll fare against a pissed off New York team that New England just pounded at home. Although I don’t trust Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense as far as I can throw them, this is a perfect spot to lay the points with Ryan’s squad.

Eagles +4.5 @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
This line actually opened at Giants –3 but once word spread that Michael Vick played last week’s game with broken ribs and is now questionable for Sunday night, the spread jumped up. For betting purposes, it’s actually better if Vick does play because the line may drop back down to 3. And if that happens, jump all over the Giants, who would be a massive value. The Eagles look like they’re a team mailing it in and if they don’t feel as though they have anything to play for then they’re not going to get up for a divisional rival in November, in blustery New Jersey no less. The road team usually prospers in this matchup but now might be the perfect time to kick the Eagles while they’re down. (As long as the line doesn’t keep going up, that is. (At some point the Giants stop being a value, even against a fading Philadelphia team.)

Titans +6 @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET
This line is way too high. The Titans enter the week with an extra spring in their step following the news of Matt Schaub’s season-ending surgery. They have a perfect opportunity to catch the Texans in the AFC South if they play well and Houston folds with Matt Leinart under center. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which their head coach Mike Smith blew it by going for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 29-yard-line in overtime. (Which set the Saints up with primo field position.) Atlanta is a conservative team by nature and with Chris Johnson heating up the Titans should be able to keep this game close throughout.

Bengals +7 @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET
If you can figure out how the Ravens perceive the Bengals then this line should be easy to figure out. Baltimore has been playing up (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Houston) and down (Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona) to its competition all year. So if the Ravens view the Bengals as a team that is standing in their way of potentially winning the AFC North, then I would lay the 7 points. But if they view Cincinnati as a wounded (top corner Leon Hall is out for the year and star receiver A.J. Green is banged up) poser that didn’t have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh last week, then I’d take the points with the Bengals. Or better yet? Just lay off this game completely. I personally think that 7 points is a lot in a divisional game but if the Ravens are ticked off from their loss last week to Seattle then they could roll.

2011 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads:

Thursday, November 17, 2011
Jets –6 (40.5)
Broncos +6

Sunday, November 20, 2011
Panthers +7 (47.5)
Lions –7

Bucs +14 (49)
Packers –14

Cowboys –9 (41.5)
Redskins +9

Bills +1 (43)
Dolphins –1

Jaguars –1 (34.5)
Browns +1

Raiders –1 (45)
Vikings +1

Bengals +7 (40.5)
Ravens –7

Seahawks +1 (39)
Rams –1

Cardinals +9.5 (41.5)
49ers –9.5

Chargers +3.5 (45)
Bears –3.5

Titans +6 (44)
Falcons –6

Eagles +4.5 (47)
Giants –4.5

Monday, November 21, 2011
Chiefs +14.5 (47.5)
Patriots –14.5

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

What are some of the big questions heading into this week in the NFL?

1. Can Matt Leinart save the Texans’ season?
You almost have to feel bad for the Houston Texans. Now that they’re finally knocking on the door of their first postseason appearance, they lose starting quarterback Matt Schaub (Lisfranc surgery) for the season. The good news is that the Texans are still two wins up on the Titans in the AFC South and hey, it’s not like the NFL has never seen a backup quarterback resurgence before. Don’t forget that in this very division, Kerry Collins once stepped in for Vince Young and led the Titans to a 12-3 record and a No. 1 seed in the AFC. That said, Collins had already taken a team to the Super Bowl earlier in his career and had some success as a starter. Matt Leinart has not. He may have won a bunch of games at USC but he’s done nothing in his four years in the NFL to make you believe that he’s going to one day wake up and put it all together. In fact, he hasn’t even attempted a pass since 2009. Maybe the question for the Texans isn’t whether or not Leinart can save their season, but whether or not the duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate can rise to the challenge. Houston’s running game will be relied upon even more than it already has this season, although at some point Leinart will have to make plays. Like most people, I have my doubts about his potential to lead.

2. Can the Titans capitalize?
Tennessee has kind of gotten lost in the midst of Houston’s current four-game winning streak. But now that Leinart is taking over under center, the Titans have a realistic chance to win the division if they can play well in the second half. Chris Johnson is coming off a 130-yard effort against the Panthers and is showing signs of life for the first time all season. Matt Hasselbeck has also stayed healthy and is managing the game like the seasoned vet he is. The defense, however, has regressed. While the Titans have been stout against the run and good (not great) in coverage, their pass rush has been non-existent at times. For the Titans to beat teams like the Saints, Falcons and Bills over the next month, they’ll need to be able to rush the quarterback. But with games against the Bucs, Colts, Jaguars and Texans left on their schedule, there’s no reason the Titans can’t steal the AFC South right from under Houston’s nose. It’s really up to Tennessee to step up and string some wins together if Leinart falters.

3. Can Mike Smith and the Falcons bounce back?
That was a nasty way to lose last Sunday. While some have argued that Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 29-yard-line last weekend against the Saints was a risk worth taking, the bottom line is that the move backfired. It cost the Falcons a potential victory and now they sit a game and a half back of the Saints in the NFC South. Smith’s decision is something that could come back and bite the Falcons later on once the NFC playoff picture takes shape. That said, the toughest part of Atlanta’s schedule has already been played. Tennessee, the Falcons’ opponent this Sunday, is certainly beatable, as are Minnesota, Houston, Carolina and Jacksonville (Atlanta’s four opponents before taking on New Orleans again on December 26). The Falcons close the season out at home against a Bucs team that is presently floundering, so there’s a chance they could win out if they play to their full potential. But not if they can’t put “the decision” behind them. To Smith’s credit, he hasn’t backed down from taking responsibility for the fourth down call and his players have come out in full support of their head coach. Now they just have to prove that they’re over the loss on the field.

4. Can the Chargers shake out of their funk?
The Chargers pissed away a golden opportunity to take their lead back in the AFC West when they lost to a banged up Oakland team last Thursday at home. Now they have to travel to Chicago to take on a red-hot Bears team that is playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Bolts have lost four straight and Philip Rivers isn’t carrying the team like he did a year ago. Norv Turner’s passing attack is still explosive but Rivers can’t stop turning the ball over and the running game is nowhere to be seen. On the other side of the ball, San Diego’s secondary has been suspect all season, which isn’t good considering Chicago likes to put the ball in the air. Fortunately for the Chargers nobody in the AFC West seems ready to pull away. But for confidence sake, the Bolts need to pick up a huge road win this Sunday.

5. Will the Ravens’ rebound from their horrendous loss last week?
I didn’t think the Ravens could play any worse than their 12-7 loss to the Jaguars in Week 7. And then they came out last Sunday and lost 22-17 to the Seahawks in a game they never led. The Ravens have clearly played to the level of their competition this season. They played inspired football in wins over Pittsburgh (twice), the Jets and Houston, but in losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle the Ravens clearly thought their inferior opponents would just roll over. So how will they perceive the Bengals this Sunday? Cincinnati didn’t have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh at home last week but it did fight to the end. They’ve also played solid defense this year, although they just lost star cornerback Leon Hall to a season-ending injury. Will Baltimore view Cincinnati as a tough divisional opponent and play up to its potential or will the Ravens not take the banged up Bengals seriously and drop consecutive games for the first time all season?

6. Are the Bills finished?
If they’re not, they better be able to beat a 2-7 Miami team this Sunday. Buffalo has lost two in a row and has looked really bad in the process. The Dolphins may have started the year 0-7 but their confidence is rising with two straight wins. Still, they’re the Dolphins. They’re beatable. They’re certainly beatable when you’re a 5-4 Bills team that is trying to keep pace with the Jets and Patriots in the AFC East. This is a must win for Buffalo, especially considering New York and New England should beat Denver and Kansas City, respectively. If the Bills lose for a third straight week, then chances are this fairytale season is about to have a horrendous ending.

Broncos @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET
Tim Tebow said that the Denver coaching staff didn’t change the team’s offensive scheme to fit the quarterback’s skill set during the bye week. That makes sense. I mean why would any coaching staff want to try and play to their quarterback’s strengths? Bill Belichick doesn’t do that with Tom Brady. Mike McCarthy doesn’t do that with Aaron Rodgers. Both of those teams largely keep the ball on the ground and let Brady and Rodgers be the game managers they are. (I hate that I even have to write this but I know some people will misconstrue things: I’m being sarcastic.) While I like Tebow’s chances of succeeding this weekend in Miami no matter what the scheme is, I think the Broncos should have styled their offense around what he does best (i.e. being creative in both the run and the pass). But what do I know? I’m a doctor, not an offensive coordinator.

Falcons @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
It’s all well and good that the Falcons want to get back to Michael Turner and their ball-control ways, but at some point OC Mike Mularkey better figure out how to beat teams through the air. Matt Ryan is the only quarterback in the NFC South who has yet to throw for over 300 yards in a game this season and he ranks 17th in the league in overall passing yards. With Julio Jones (hamstring) expected to miss another week, it would be wise for the Falcons to keep the ball on the ground against the Lions’ suspect run defense. But again, at some point Mularkey has to do his job and figure out a way to let Ryan soar. The most obvious solution is to put him in the no-huddle full-time, but Mularkey and Mike Smith’s conservative ways just won’t allow it.

Texans @ Titans, 1:00PM ET
Hey Matt Schaub, it’s go time buddy. The AFC South is yours for the taking and while I understand that you lost your best playmaker and your defense is now without its best weapon, it’s high time you raise your game. Arian Foster is seeing eight man fronts so there’s no reason for you not to exploit defenses with your arm – Andre Johnson or no Andre Johnson. Tennessee’s pass rush is one of the weakest in the league, so figure it out and get your team a win, Matt.

Chargers @ Jets, 1:00PM ET
“The more we get comfortable, we start playing pitch and catch and I’m doing my thing out there, the offense is going to go through the roof,” said Plaxico Burress in regards to Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense. Right, because naturally Plax is the key to whether or not New York’s offense is going to eventually get out of its funk. I think the Jets have it right in giving Shonn Greene an increased workload. The only way they’re going to really get their offense going is relying on the ground game to open things up for Sanchez. Burress is probably right when he suggests that he and Sanchez need to develop more chemistry, but the key to this offense is Greene and the ground attack.

Redskins @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
Mike Shanahan is in a mess of his own making. Everyone knew going into the season that Rex Grossman is fine in small doses, but over the course of a season he’s going to hurt you. Thus, now that Shanahan has switched things up and is starting John Beck on Sunday, he better win. The Panthers are better than their 1-5 record would indicate but this is a game the Redskins have to win if they want to keep pace with the Giants in the NFC East.

Seahawks @ Browns, 1:00PM ET
Peyton Hillis has an injured hamstring and won’t practice on Thursday. His agent has advised him not to play in this game, or the next 12. If a case of the sniffles is equal to missing one game, then an injured hamstring must be equal to 13 missed games. Hillis and his agent just can’t be too careful when it comes to the King of Fumbles’ health.

Steelers @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
I thought the addition of Kevin Kolb was supposed to help Arizona’s passing game? The Cards have totaled 169 and 171 passing yards in their past two games and while the team is exploring ways to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald more, it’s Kolb who needs to raise the level of his play. The Cardinals better figure out a way to beat teams through the air or else they’ll be picking in the top 5 again next April. Things don’t get any easier for them this Sunday with the Steelers coming to town, whose secondary has been pretty good this season.

Chiefs @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
So much for easing Carson Palmer into the starting role. Dude hasn’t played in a live game since January and the Raiders are already counting on him to start just days after giving up 14 first-rounders and 16 conditional picks to acquire him from Cincinnati. This is the same Carson Palmer whose arm strength and mobility were an issue last season right? Just checking. Oakland is a good team with or without Palmer under center but I would think with a bye week coming up that we’d see Kyle Boller start this weekend. But then again I’d be wrong. (What else is new?)

Packers @ Vikings, 4:15PM ET
The Packers have largely struggled this year defensively. Their run defense has been good but their pass rush has largely been non-existent and their secondary has taken several hits due to injuries. That said: Good luck, Christian Ponder. You’re going to have to score at least 30 points to beat Aaron Rodgers in a dome and even then, a fourth-quarter comeback will probably have to be in order. I don’t disagree with Minnesota’s decision to bench Donovan McNabb and go with the kid, especially seeing as how this season has already been lost. But starting McNabb against the defending Super Bowl champs would have probably made more sense than letting Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji feast on Palmer’s bones for four quarters.

Rams @ Cowboys, 4:15PM ET
Even though Adam Schefter insists that Sam Bradford will play on Sunday in Dallas, don’t be surprised if A.J. Feeley winds up starting. Bradford’s ankle is pretty bad and throwing him to DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer in what has turned out to be a lost season doesn’t make much sense. Of course, even if Feeley does start the Cowboys will probably have to win this game with a miraculous field goal in the closing seconds. That’s just how Dallas rolls these days.

Colts @ Saints, 8:20PM ET
I for one am thrilled that the Colts will once again be on national television on Sunday night. This makes three times in the first seven weeks that winless Indy will be on prime time, which is fun for both the league and its fans. I’m fully aware that the networks were hoping that Peyton Manning would be under center for these games. But the last time I checked, the Colts didn’t win the Super Bowl last year and yet they get four primetime games and one Thursday night showing on the NFL Network. (For comparison sake, the Packers have four primetime games this year, which makes sense given how they’re the title winners.) Drew Brees and the Saints are pissed coming off the loss to Tampa last week, so the score this Sunday night should be 24-3 by halftime. Or even worse, Brees doesn’t light it up and it’s a 16-13 borefest. Either way, good luck with your ratings this week, NBC.

Ravens @ Jaguars, 8:30PM ET, Monday
Baltimore shouldn’t have much trouble beating Jacksonville on Monday night but I’m sure the Ravens would like to see Joe Flacco be more accurate than he has been over the first six weeks. He’s third to last among quarterbacks this year in pass completion percentage at 51.4, which isn’t going to get it done against the likes of New England or Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Of course, Flacco has never finished a season completing less than 60-percent of his passes but his early season accuracy woes are troubling nonetheless.

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.

- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.

- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- Hey Andy Reid, this is why you don’t hire your offensive line coach as your defensive coordinator. I realize that’s kind of harsh because it’s not like Juan Castillo is the only reason the Eagles are now 1-4 after losing today in Buffalo. (After all, it’s not Castillo’s fault that Michael Vick is careless with the football or can’t manage a clock near halftime.) But there’s no way the Eagles’ defense should be this bad. I don’t want to take anything away from Buffalo because its offense can score on anyone. But Reid’s decision to hire Castillo looks like a massive miscalculation. MASSIVE.

- Mark Sanchez has to raise the level of his play if the Jets are going to succeed this season. For the past two years the Jets have relied on their rushing game and defense to make the playoffs, where Sanchez has been very good. But this year has had a different feel to it for New York. The defense hasn’t been as good and the ground game has been non-existent. Thus, 166 yards against one of the lowest ranked defenses in the league just isn’t going to cut it. He was very good on the 85-yard drive in the second half to cut New England’s lead to 27-21, but that was the only time he looked sharp all day. If Sanchez doesn’t start playing as well in the regular season as he does in the postseason, the Jets won’t make the playoffs this year. That’s just the bottom line for Rex Ryan‘s struggling team, which has lost three in a row after starting the year 2-0.

- What in God’s name was Matt Schaub thinking on the Texans’ final play? He could have waltzed into the end zone from inside the Raiders’ 5-yard line but he gave the game away instead by throwing an interception to Michael Huff. Schaub is going to think about that pass all week.

- Nobody saw them being blown out 48-3 but the Bucs’ loss to the 49ers was hardly surprising. Tampa certainly had some built in excuses coming into Sunday’s action (i.e. a short week, a cross-country trip), but I don’t think the Bucs were as good as their 3-1 record indicated. Their offense lacks explosion, their run blocking hasn’t been good, and opponents can take advantage of their pass defense just like Alex Smith (three touchdowns) and San Francisco did today. The Bucs’ run defense apparently wasn’t up to snuff either, as Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. At 3-2 Tampa is still in good shape but I don’t think this was a loss that Raheem Morris can just chalk up to a bad day. The Bucs have issues that need to be corrected if they want to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

- The Panthers deserve more praise than criticism for hanging with the Saints today, but what was Ron Rivera and his coaching staff thinking when they took a timeout with two seconds remaining in the first half? The Saints were trying frantically to get their field goal team on the field and Carolina saved them the trouble by calling a time out. Naturally, John Kasay made the kick to give New Orleans a 20-13 halftime lead in a game they eventually rallied to win by? You guessed it: Three points.

- Considering how many issues the Vikings have had in the second half of games this year, one would have thought Leslie Frazier would have kept his foot on the gas towards the conclusion of the first half today against Arizona. But instead of trying to increase their lead by pushing the ball up field, Frazier and the Vikings were content with a 28-3 lead. They were promptly booed by the home crowd, which chanted Christian Ponder’s name heading into the locker room. Only the Vikings could make fans uneasy with a sizable lead.

- Peter King speculated on “Football Night in America” that Mario Williams “probably” tore his pectoral muscle in the Texans’ loss to the Raiders on Sunday. That would be a massive blow to a team that lost its best offensive player a week ago when Andre Johnson hurt his hamstring against the Steelers. Suddenly the AFC South looks like a crapshoot.

“CHAMPIONSHIP”…

- All week I wrote about how the Bills’ loss to the Bengals last Sunday was an aberration. They got caught with their pants down but they obviously learned from it. The Eagles made a ton of mistakes today but let’s not take credit away from a Buffalo team that everyone completely overlooked coming into the season. It wasn’t hard to figure that Fred Jackson would have a big day against Philadelphia’s pathetic run defense and that he did, rushing for 111 yards with a couple of good-sized runs. I’ll be honest, part of me has been waiting for the Bills’ play to fall off but I’m over that notion. This Buffalo team isn’t going anywhere.

- Bill Belichick works in mysterious ways doesn’t he? For weeks the Patriots have kept the ball in the air against opponents while BenJarvus Green-Ellis has largely been an afterthought in the offense. In fact, Stevan Ridley was starting to garner some attention has a better option than Green-Ellis in the ground game. Yet with the Jets in town today, Green-Ellis rushes for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns as the Patriots defeated their AFC East rivals, 30-21. Granted, Tom Brady (24-of-33 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and the passing game was still highly active but the game was clearly on Green-Ellis’ shoulders. This is one of the many reasons why Belichick is so good. He doesn’t forget about any of his weapons and if he sees a weakness that he can exploit, he attacks it. He also knows how to feed the hot hand and he doesn’t over think the game as it plays out. Some may disagree but he has the best mind in football in my eyes.

- It’s not like I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but I’ve been really impressed with the Bengals. Yeah, beating the Jaguars and their rookie starting quarterback isn’t earth-shattering news. But who does Cincinnati have starting under center? Andy Dalton, a rookie quarterback, whose main playmaker is a rookie receiver in A.J. Green who has received less attention than Julio Jones and yet is producing week in and week out. The Bengals showed a lot of poise down 20-16 in the fourth quarter on Sunday and rallying to beat the Jaguars. Who would have thought that Cincinnati would be 3-2 with the mess of an offseason they had?

- Championship? Not quite, but the Chiefs do have a pulse after winning their second straight game. Matt Cassel was outstanding in Kansas City’s comeback over Indianapolis, completing 21-of-29 passes for 257 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t want to get carried away after one game but this is the type of performance out of Cassel that shows people that he can be a serviceable starter.

- There’s no need to overreact to his performance today because he’ll probably go back to his inconsistent ways next week, but Alex Smith was very efficient in the Niners’ 48-3 win over the Bucs. It was nice to see him react to the pressure instead of lo0king for it and then making mistakes. He kept his eyes downfield, didn’t stare down receivers and finally played with a sense of purpose. It helped that Tampa’s pass rush is weak and Frank Gore was gashing the Bucs on the ground, but let’s give credit were credit is due. Smith was very good.

- The Giants deserve to be ridiculed for their embarrassing loss to the Seahawks but Victor Cruz was nearly unstoppable today. He turned his 11 targets into eight receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown, and made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Just think, we may have never seen what this kid could do had the Giants not suffered as many injuries to their receiving corps. Not that I want to see anyone get hurt but Cruz has been really fun to watch the past couple weeks.

After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

Steelers: Will the offensive line hold Pittsburgh back?
Once again the Steelers’ offensive line is a concern heading into the season. Granted, it was also a concern when they won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago and it was a concern last season when they lost to the Packers in the title game. Thanks to Dick LeBeau’s defense and the steady play of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, this team always finds a way to overcome its shortcomings. That said, it’s often harder to stay on top of the mountain than it is to climb it and if there’s one spot opponents can exploit, it’s the Steelers’ O-line. (One could argue cornerback is another weakness of Pittsburgh’s, but it’s not a bigger concern than the O-line.)

Ravens: Can they beat the Steelers?
The only time the Ravens beat the Steelers last year was when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended early in the season. Otherwise, Baltimore played its AFC North rivals close but it can’t seem to get over the hump. Just like the Jets in the AFC East when it comes to the Patriots, before the Ravens can even think about reaching the Super Bowl they need to beat the Steelers first.

Chargers: Can they start fast for once?
This isn’t your brother’s Chiefs and Raiders that the Chargers now have to deal with. Kansas City is defending AFC West champions and basically returns the same team it won with last year, while Oakland is steadily improving. It used to be that the Bolts could sleepwalk through their first-half schedule before winning 10-straight games to cruise into the playoffs. But now a slow start could be detrimental to their postseason goals. The Chargers need to start fast for a change because the Chiefs and Raiders aren’t pushovers anymore.

Chiefs: Can they win against a tougher schedule?
The Chiefs proved last year that they’re a better team than people expected, but they also had a manageable schedule. This year, they face the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers in five straight weeks during the second half of the season and won’t sneak up on anyone after winning the AFC West. It’s time to see if Matt Cassel and Co. can raise their game now that opponents will see them coming.

Cowboys: Will the offensive line and cornerback positions hold up?
Rookie offensive tackle Tryon Smith and cornerback Michael Jenkins both hurt their knees earlier this week and may not play in the Cowboys’ opener versus the Jets on Sunday night. Making things worse, Terence Newman has already been ruled out with a groin injury so an already worrisome spot for Dallas (secondary) just became an even bigger concern. I envision a bounce back year for the ‘Boys, but not if the offensive line can’t keep Tony Romo upright and not if the secondary can’t matchup up with the Eagles, Packers, Saints and Falcons (four of the best offenses in the conference) in the NFC.

Eagles: Can Vick live up to the expectations?
In 2004, there were low expectations for the Falcons because Michael Vick was coming off a devastating leg injury that cost him most of his 2003 season. So naturally Vick led Atlanta to the NFC title game that year. In 2005 when expectations were high, Vick was ONE OF the reasons the Falcons didn’t even make the playoffs. In 2006 when observers were predicting a bounce back year for Atlanta, again Vick and the Falcons fell short of expectations. Last year when Kevin Kolb was supposed to be the starter and Vick a gimmick in Andy Reid’s offense, Vick took the Eagles to new heights. Now, led by Vick, the Eagles are considered Super Bowl contenders. My point is that when expectations are high, Vick often falls well short. Is he an exceptional athlete? No f’n doubt. Can he win? Yes. Can he win a NFC title game with everything on the line? I’m not so sure and quite frankly, I lean more towards “no” after the way he’s been talking about how no defense can contain him. Vick can get awfully complacent when he wants to be.

Packers: Can the Pack repeat?
There’s really no other question, is there? Not since the 2004 and 2005 Patriots has a team won back-to-back Super Bowls in the NFL. And not since the 1993/94 Cowboys has a NFC team won back-to-back titles. Just like the Saints in 2009, the Packers have a great opportunity to end the NFC’s long drought but it’s incredibly difficult to repeat. For whatever reason, things are always just a little bit off in that next year and usually, injuries are a concern. (Although injuries were a concern for the Packers last year and they still won, so maybe this will be the year the NFC finally repeats again.)

Bears: Will the O-line and receivers be their Achilles’ heel?
The Bears’ offensive line was a disaster in its first preseason game this season, allowing nine sacks against the Bills. But it got better over the course of the next two weeks and seems less of a concern heading into the season than it did at the start of camp. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how guys like J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi fare when teams start to game plan to stop the Bears’ offense. The same can be said for Chicago’s receiver corps, which was highly unimpressive in preseason. How the Bears believe Roy Williams is a starter is behind me, but Jerry Angelo will reap what he sows there. I have a hunch we could see a repeat of Jay Cutler’s 2009 season when his sack and interception totals were both high. And just like in ‘09, it won’t be all his fault like it’s portrayed in the media.

Falcons: Can Ryan win a playoff game?
The Falcons have a couple of question marks heading into the season, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. But they pale in comparison to whether or not Matt Ryan can take that next step, which includes winning a postseason game. He’s 0-2 in the playoffs, which hardly makes him Peyton Manning before the latter won a Super Bowl in Indy. But at the same time, Ryan needs to be the reserve of Mark Sanchez in that he needs to be just as good in the postseason as he is in the regular season. The Falcons are expected to unshackle him this season, which means putting him more in the no huddle (an offense he’s excelled in since his rookie year) and allowing him to throw more vertically down field (something that he’s struggled to find consistency with). With so many weapons around him in the offense, it’s time for Ryan to emerge as one of the elite.

Saints: Will the linebackers be a weakness once again?
The Saints did a fantastic job bolstering their defensive line this offseason with the signings of Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers, which should help Jonathan Vilma do a better job against the run than he did a year ago. Vilma was often taken out of the play because his defensive tackles didn’t protect him. That said, he also needs more help from his ‘backer mates. It’s puzzling why the Saints still feel that Scott Shanle is an every-down player when he’s proven otherwise for years. They’re also taking a huge risk assuming Will Herring can play every down when he was regulated to nickel duties in Seattle last season. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team but where the Saints can be had is at linebacker.

Rams: Can the Rams overcome a tough first-half schedule?
From my piece last week on the Rams: Have you checked out the Rams’ schedule this year? It’s freaking brutal. They open up at home against everyone’s chic pick the Eagles before heading to New York to play the Giants in Week 2. They come back to St. Louis for two home games and while one of those contests is a Week 4 matchup with the Redskins, the other is a Week 3 tilt against the Ravens. After they come back from their BYE in Week 5, the Rams travel to Green Bay and Dallas before hosting the Saints in Week 8. So in six of their first seven games they play the entire NFC East, the defending Super Bowl champions, and the team that won it all in 2009 and might be poised to do it again in 2011. Thanks, schedule makers!

Cardinals: Can Kevin Kolb play?
With how brutal the Rams’ schedule is, the Cardinals can win the NFC West if Kolb resembles even an average NFL quarterback. Obviously Arizona has other concerns, just like every team in the division. But the Kolb acquisition can put this team back on top in the West if he can show a smattering of consistency from week-to-week. That said, nobody knows whether or not this guy can even play. He looked good at times in Philadelphia but blew his chance to be a full-time starter last season. Time will tell if he’ll make the difference or not in the desert.

Texans fans are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore.

According to the Houston Chronicle and ESPN.com, fans who believe coach Gary Kubiak should be fired are organizing a rally for Sunday’s game to make their point.

Fans Brad White and Scott Carter are hoping the demonstration before Sunday’s season finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars will help convince team owner Bob McNair to change coaches, according to the report.

“I want to stress that I don’t want people to come out to bash Kubiak,” White told the Chronicle. “We don’t want vulgar signs out there. We’re not there to bash him. We’re there to say that we want a change.”

“Five years has been enough,” White said of Kubiak’s coaching tenure in Houston, according to the report. “We’ve regressed this year. Minus a couple players, we believe the players aren’t responding to [the coaching staff] anymore.”

I don’t disagree that Kubiak should be fired – his record (36-43) through five seasons speaks for itself. Many people believe that this team has had enough talent to at least make one playoff appearance in the past few years but it just hasn’t happened.

That said, the Texans had issues coming into the season that people wanted to look past because of their explosive offense. Everyone knew the secondary was highly inexperienced as a whole and would need time to gel. So it shouldn’t be surprising that opposing teams were able to shred Houston through the air on a weekly basis.

Everyone got excited when the Texans started 4-2, as well they should have. That win against the Colts in Week 1 was impressive and they showed some grit on the road in Week 2 against the Redskins.

But when a team has issues, they eventually come to the surface and that’s what happened in Houston. It didn’t help that Andre Johnson was banged up for most of the year, or that Owen Daniels was still recovering from knee surgery, or that Matt Schaub showed an inability to finish games strong. The wheels came off and unfortunately for Kubiak, he’ll be the one that has to pay for that.

But just because the Texans make a coaching change doesn’t mean that all of their problems will vanish. This isn’t a team that’s one missing piece away, which has to be disheartening to fans.