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2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:11:27 +0000

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

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Biggest injury concern: Orton, Turner, Brown or Benson?

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:15:57 +0000

Last week, several teams’ playoff hopes took major hits as key players all left their respective games due to various injuries.

The Broncos (Kyle Orton), Falcons (Michael Turner), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Bengals (Cedric Benson) seem to be bitten he hardest by the injury bug but which injury should concern their respective teams the most? Let’s break down all four situations.

Broncos: Without Orton, Denver stands little chance of beating the Chargers at home this Sunday and even less of a chance of winning the AFC West. Orton isn’t Peyton Manning, but he might as well be the Broncos’ version of the star Colts’ QB because Chris Simms proved last week that he isn’t capable of keeping Denver afloat if Orton misses significant time. Now maybe with more preparation Simms will be better, but chances are the Broncos’ hopes of making the playoffs will fall flat with him under center. Orton says that he will play this weekend, even though he has torn ligaments in his left ankle. He admitted last year that he shouldn’t have tried to grit out a right ankle injury when he was playing for the Bears, so there’s a chance that he’s about to make the same mistake twice. This Sunday will be a good indication of how severe Orton’s injury really is.

Falcons: After getting off to a slow start, Turner was back in 2008 form the past couple weeks and even compiled 111 yards on only nine carries against the Panthers last Sunday before suffering a high ankle sprain. Usually those types of injuries take months to heel, but the Falcons don’t seem concerned about Turner missing more than a couple of weeks. The problem is that the Falcons are in the midst of a Wild Card chase in the NFC and they need their bruising back on the field – especially as Matt Ryan continues to struggle in his second year. Atlanta has capable backups in Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, but the latter can’t stay healthy and the former doesn’t have much experience. If Ryan can step up and prove he can lead the Falcons through the air, then Turner can rest up and be ready in time for a late-season run. If Ryan falters again like he has been, then Turner might feel the need to rush back from his injury sooner than he (or the team) intends.

Dolphins: Miami had to end Brown’s season after he injured his foot in a win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Ricky Williams has been superb this season, but Brown is the key to the Dolphins’ Wildcat success and he instills a toughness that can’t be matched by Williams alone. If Pat White can step up and help run the Wildcat, then Miami will keep its slim playoff hopes alive. But they need to win tonight in Carolina or else they’ll likely fall to far behind in a tight conference.

Bengals: Cincinnati is probably the best off because Benson’s hip injury doesn’t seem as serious as the alignments bothering Orton, Turner and Brown. He has been ruled out against the Raiders this week, but I imagine if the game had playoff implications that Benson would be on the field. With a solid two-game lead (tie-breaker included) over Pittsburgh in the AFC North, Cincinnati can afford to rest Benson this week and still beat a bad Oakland team this Sunday. Hopefully he’ll recover quickly and if he doesn’t, Cincinnati has capable backups in Bernard Scott and the recently signed Larry Johnson to help fill the void until Benson is healthy again.

Of these injuries, I would say Orton and Turner’s are of biggest concern given how they can affect the Broncos and Falcons’ playoff hopes. Losing Brown hurts, but even with him on the field the Dolphins’ postseason chances are slim at best and Benson should be back in a week or two for Cincinnati.

If Orton can play on the injured ankle and not suffer any setbacks, then Denver should be okay. But if they have to rely on Simms for longer than a game or two, they’re toast.

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2009 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:21:30 +0000

Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds:

Thursday, November 19
Dolphins +3 Over 42.5
Panthers –3 Under 42.5

Sunday, November 22
Browns +3.5 Over 38
Lions –3.5 Under 38

Bills +8.5 Over 42.5
Jaguars –8.5 Under 42.5

Steelers –10 Over 40
Chiefs +10 Under 40

Colts –1 Over 44.5
Ravens +1 Under 44.5

Falcons +6.5 Over 46.5
Giants –6.5 Under 46.5

49ers +6.5 Over 42
Packers –6.5 Under 42

Seahawks +11 Over 46
Vikings –11 Under 46

Redskins +11 Over 41
Cowboys –11 Under 41

Saints –11 Over 51
Buccaneers +11 Under 51

Cardinals –9 Over 46.5
Rams +9 Under 46.5

Jets +10.5 Over 45
Patriots –10 Under 45

Bengals –9.5 Over 36
Raiders +9.5 Under 36

Eagles –3 Over 45
Bears +3 Under 45

Monday, November 23
Titans +4.5 Over 48
Texas –4.5 Under 48

For expert picks and daily free picks, visit HSI Sports!

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Turner has high ankle sprain; Ryan, Norwood and Snelling must step up

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:15:49 +0000

Jay Glazer of FOXSports.com reports that Michael Turner has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, although the Falcons are apparently “very optimistic” that the injury won’t keep their star back out too long.

High ankle sprains can sideline players for as little as 2-3 weeks or as long as six months depending on the severity of the injury. In Turner’s case, it sounds like he’ll only be out a couple of weeks but who knows at this point. The Falcons will be fighting for a playoff spot the rest of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Turner came back earlier than expected.

Atlanta has two capable backs in Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling, although the former can never stay healthy. Norwood has battled concussions and a hip injury for much of the season and hasn’t spent a lot of time on the field.

When healthy, Norwood is a lighting rod and a threat to score every time he gets his hands on the ball, while Snelling looked good on Sunday in the team’s loss to the Panthers. He’s kind of a poor man’s Turner in that he’s a load to bring down, but he has surprising quickness and is a good receiver out of the backfield.

The Falcons could certainly do worse than a combination of Snelling and Norwood – much worse. But the problem is that if Norwood can’t stay healthy, Snelling isn’t the same back as Turner is. He’s more than serviceable, but he’s never been counted on to carry the full load, so Norwood has to recover quickly or else the Falcons’ season could slip away in a hurry.

Of course, Matt Ryan could also help the situation by playing much better than he has. When Turner was struggling at the beginning of the season and the Falcons’ running game was non-existent, Ryan carried the team. But he hasn’t played well in over a month and his performance in Carolina yesterday might have been an indication that he has regressed as a passer. All of a sudden, Ryan has turned into an inaccurate quarterback that makes poor decisions and often bails out of plays (which are all things he never did as a rookie).

If Turner is out for an extended period of time, the Falcons need all three players – Norwood, Snelling and Ryan – to step up and produce or else a second half collapse is imminent. Their defense is young and improving, but it can’t carry Atlanta to a postseason berth on its own. (Especially considering how bad the Panthers tore them up yesterday.)

It’s time for Ryan, Norwood and Snelling to step up.

Let’s put Snelling’s performance on Sunday into perspective. Before he left the game, Turner had run for 111 yards on nine carries for a 12.3 ypc. Snelling took over and rushed for 61 yards on 18 carries (3.4 ypc) and a TD. This was against the league’s 25th-ranked rush defense. Snelling is no Michael Turner, but if Jerious Norwood remains sidelined, he’s a guy capable of filling in for a few weeks, both for the Falcons and for your fantasy team. The good news is that he’s a decent receiver (3-32), an area of the game in which Turner does not excel (or isn’t given the opportunity to excel). Other options at RB are LeSean McCoy, Ladell Betts, Justin Forsett and Sammy Morris. Be sure to check back for our Waiver Wire Watch tomorrow morning for rankings of these potential fantasy free agents.

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Matt Ryan is officially in a sophomore slump

Anthony Stalter — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:10:12 +0000

For anyone that has actually devoted some time watching Matt Ryan over the past month, it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t look like a completely different quarterback than he did last year – or even at the start of this season. He bails out of plays, he overthrows receivers and he looks frightened in the pocket.

It appears that the dreaded sophomore slump has officially sacked “Matty Ice.”

During the Falcons’ 28-19 loss to the Panthers on Sunday, Ryan looked uncomfortable for most of the first half. He threw a horrible interception just before halftime that led to a Carolina touchdown, which put Atlanta behind 21-10. Then late in the game with the Falcons needing a field goal to take the lead, he again was picked off after he forced a pass downfield to a double-covered Michael Jenkins.

In both cases, Ryan not only made poor throws, but poor decisions – something that didn’t plague him last season.

Of course, Ryan had nothing to do with Jason Elam missing a chip shot field goal one possession before the critical interception. Had Elam made the field goal, the Falcons would have had the opportunity to stop Carolina and eek out a much-needed division win. Instead, Elam shanked the kick like someone with money on the Panthers and put his team in an awful situation.

Getting back to Ryan, he really has no excuse for playing as poorly as he has, because the running game has been productive (unlike earlier in the season when the passing game had to carry the Falcons). Michael Turner (nine carries, 111 yards) suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half and couldn’t return, but Jason Snelling picked up the slack in his place and Ryan just couldn’t deliver. The running game should allow Ryan to make more plays in the passing game but he just hasn’t made the throws.

The Falcons have a great opportunity to earn a Wild Card in the NFC, but they can’t do it if Ryan continues to play as poorly as he has. He needs to rekindle the magic that helped him win the Rookie of the Year Award, or second half collapse for Atlanta is certainly possible.

As for the Panthers, they’re starting to get back to what they did last year: Run the ball and play good defense. It also helps when Jake Delhomme isn’t trying to give games away by throwing the ball to the other team and generally being useless.

With this win, the Panthers have gotten back into contention for the NFC Wild Card.

Update: Turner’s injury could be serious. If he’s out for any extended length of time, the Falcons’ season could be in danger, especially considering Jerious Norwood hasn’t played in weeks due to injuries.

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NFL Pick & Predictions Week 10

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:00:47 +0000

Thanks to Kyle Orton’s terrific Monday night performance against Pittsburgh and Green Bay’s outstanding effort in Tampa, I took one on the chin last week to go 2-3. Law of averages says I get things right this week, right? Right?!

Here are my top four plays for Sunday.

Bengals (6-2) at Steelers (6-2), 1:00PM ET
I don’t see the Bengals sweeping the Steelers this season, but Cincinnati isn’t getting enough respect. Their defense is legit and they have the secondary to matchup with a team like the Steelers that likes to put the ball in the air. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco have played well this season and should be able to keep the Bengals in the game. For as good as the Steelers are and as much as they’ll get up for a division rival like the Bengals who have already beaten them once this season, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after earning an emotional win in Denver. In the end, I think the Steelers defense won’t wilt like they did in the fourth quarter of the first contest, but this game is going to be closer than the odds would indicate.
Odds: Steelers –7.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 16.

Saints (8-0) at Rams (1-7), 1:00PM ET
The Saints haven’t covered in two weeks as double-digit favorites and while some bettors might think now is the perfect time to back a Rams team coming off a bye and getting 13.5 points at home, I would caution them. The Falcons and Panthers played the Saints tough because they’re familiar with New Orleans and divisional games are always closer than people think. It’s about time Drew Brees touches another opponent up for three or four scores and this is the perfect weekend to do going against a suspect St. Louis secondary. Actually, the Rams defense isn’t as bad as many think and they might be able to hang with New Orleans in the first half. But the Rams’ offense is putrid and the Saints’ defense has preyed on their opponents’ mistakes all season. I fully expect Sean Payton’s team to romp and I’ll gladly eat the chalk.
Odds: Saints –13.5.
Prediction: Saints 37, Rams 10.

Falcons (5-3) at Panthers (3-5), 1:00PM ET
This has “trap” written all over it. The Falcons are clearly the better team, yet find themselves as only 1.5-point favorites entering this game. Even though the Falcons got off the schnide last week by beating a bad Washington team, Matt Ryan hasn’t played particular well in over a month and Carolina has one of the better defensive backfields in the league. If the Panthers can contain Michael Turner (which could be tough given that linebacker Thomas Davis was lost after he suffered a season-ending injury last week), then they’ll have a shot to win outright. Atlanta’s run defense has been shaky this year and as long as DeAngelo Williams plays (he’ll be a game time decision), he and Jonathan Stewart should control this game on the ground. If Williams is out, then throw my pick out because I just don’t think the Panthers have enough to beat a Falcons team that has the inside track of earning a Wild Card spot in the NFC.
Odds: Falcons –1.5.
Prediction: Panthers (with Williams) 24, Falcons 20…Falcons 27, Panthers 17 (without Williams).

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (4-4), 4:15PM ET
I’ll cut to the chase: The Packers have zero chance of winning this game if they can’t figure out how to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers. And based on how the offensive line has looked so far, I doubt they’ll figure things out before Dallas brings its highly effective pass rush to Lambeau Field on Sunday. The Cowboys should control this game in the trenches and wear down Green Bay on both sides of the ball. I fully expect the Packers to give a better defensive effort than they did last week in Tampa, but DeMarcus Ware should feast on Rodgers, who rarely has time to blink in the pocket, nevertheless complete a pass. Assuming Wade Phillips’ bunch doesn’t play down to their competition this weekend, then the ‘Boys should earn another road win. (That said, beware that the Cowboys just won a huge game in Philadelphia last week, so this might be a letdown game for them.)
Odds: Cowboys –3.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Packers 17.

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Falcons’ coach, Redskins’ Haynesworth, Landry fined for sideline fight

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:12:24 +0000

According to ESPN.com, Falcons’ head coach Mike Smith was fined $15,000 for his part in Sunday’s sideline ruckus with his players in Atlanta’s 31-17 win over the Redskins last Sunday. Washington players Albert Haynesworth ($7,500) and LaRon Landry ($5,000) were fined, but DeAngelo Hall wasn’t despite being right in the middle of the melee.

Here’s video of the altercation:

Smith was in the wrong. He should have never touched a player on the opposing team and he should have concentrated on getting his own players under control.

That said, how the frock was Hall not fined? He claims he was going to get Landry, but Landry is clearly walking away from the incident in the video, yet Hall stays to mix it up. Hall was looking for a fight all week (he ripped Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff in the days leading up to the game) and took advantage when Landry laid out Matt Ryan. Yet everyone involved was fined but him.

Regardless, this incident may have hit Smith’s wallet but he no doubt earned the respect of his team for mixing it up with Hall. Again, he shouldn’t have touched a player from an opposing team. But he sent a message to his players that nobody (especially not an ass clown like DeAngelo Hall) is going to intimidate them.

On the other side of the field you have Jim Zorn, who clearly has no control over his players and looked like a deer in the highlights while the incident was going on. No wonder the Redskins have given up.